Daily Markets News From FBS

[⭐ kaito kid]

UBS: view on USD/JPY and USD/CHF

Bullish on USD/JPY:

Any downside should be limited as bullish conditions persist. Support is at 98.78 ahead of 97.64. Resistance is at 101.53 ahead of 103.74, indicating a bullish outlook.

Chart. Daily USD/JPY

Bearish on USD/CHF:

Support at 0.9265, a breach of which would trigger a deeper sell-off to 0.9147. Resistance is at 0.9371 ahead of 0.9456.

Chart. Daily USD/CHF

http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/610

[⭐ kaito kid]

CA: bearish on JPY vs. USD and EUR

According to strategists at Credit Agricole, in the coming weeks the Japanese yen will fall further against the USD and EUR.

In their view, risk appetite on the market will keep rising. "This is not only due to easing tensions as related to Syria. There is also scope for global growth expectations to adjust higher", analysts believe. What's more, the bank expects the BoJ to stay ready to ease policy further.

http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/611

[⭐ kaito kid]

13 September 2013

Key currency options

Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (14:00 GMT).

Here are the key options expiring today:

EUR/USD: $1.3150, $1.3200, $1.3250, $1.3300, $1.3310;

GBP/USD: $1.5800;

USD/JPY: 98.65, 99.00, 99.50, 99.80, 100.00, 100.20, 100.25, 101.00;

AUD/USD: $0.9200, $0.9205, $0.9220, $0.9230, $0.9300, $0.9330, $0.9350;

USD/CAD: 1.0240, 1.0250, 1.0335, 1.0400;

GBP/JPY: 155.20;

EUR/GBP: 0.8400, 0.8480;

EUR/JPY: 132.50, 132.70, 132.75.

http://www.fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/492

[⭐ kaito kid]

Trade signals from Danske Bank

EUR/USD: Hold long from $1.3243 with a target of $1.3410

USD/JPY: Hold long from 99.41 with a target of 101.05 and a stop at 98.95

GBP/USD: Revised buy at $1.5785 with a target of $1.5892

USD/CHF: Hold short from 0.9359 with a target of 0.9219

AUD/USD: Buy at 0.9155 with a target of 0.9355 and a stop at 0.9110

USD/CAD: Hold short from 1.0422 with a target of 1.0292 and a stop at 1.0390

http://www.fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/612

[⭐ kaito kid]

5 reasons for QE tapering next week

1. There is little point for the Fed to continue the current pace of purchases. A delay in tapering is not going to reduce long-term interest rates because everyone knows it’s coming – and soon. In addition, if the Fed reduces QE3 by $10 billion (forecast) from $85 to $75 billion a month, the general effect of QE won’t change much.
2. There may be no better opportunity for tapering in the next couple of months. A monthly increase of 169K jobs may be as good as it gets until economic growth accelerates.
3. The Fed’s subsequent meeting on Oct. 29-30 could very well coincide with negotiations over an increase in the debt ceiling and the announcement of the next Fed chairman – that’s already a big agenda.
4. The Fed will want to avoid market disruptions in the face of reduced mortgage and Treasury issuances.
5. An indefinite delay in a U.S. response to Syria’s use of chemical weapons.

http://www.fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/498

[⭐ kaito kid]

TD Securities: buy USD/CAD

Strategists at TD Securities recommend buying USD/CAD at the current lwo levels. They expect the USD/CAD to regain its bullish tone in the months ahead.

"From a trade perspective, we are quite comfortable with the risk/reward at the current spot rate, and will buy at these levels targeting 1.0600, and risking 1.0215", they say.

Chart. Daily USD/CAD

http://www.fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/615

[⭐ kaito kid]

Axel Merk: JPY may fall to "infinity"

Japanese yen may weaken to “infinity” versus the dollar as central bank policies in Japan and the US diverge, according to Axel Merk of Merk Investments LLC.

The Bank of Japan’s unprecedented bond-buying program designed to reach an inflation target of 2% in 2 years, combined with the Federal Reserve’s QE tapering forecast, is putting pressure on the yen, said Merk.

http://www.fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/615

[⭐ kaito kid]

Sep. 16: Asian session

US dollar fell versus its major counterparts as former Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers quitted the race the race to lead the Federal Reserve damping the expectations for an early halt to expansionary monetary policy. Fed Vice Chairman Janet Yellen, another potential candidate for the post, is considered to be more QE-friendly. In addition, the risk appetite improved as US and Russia agreed on framework to securing Syria’s chemical weapons by the middle of 2014.

EUR/USD is consolidating in the $1.3360/80 range after having opened the week with a 50-pips bullish gap. ECB president Mario Draghi is due to speak in Berlin today at 8:00 GMT – we’ll see if the risk-on sentiment persists after his comments. Market will also pay attention to the euro zone inflation data at 9:00 GMT. GBP/USD has also opened with a 50-pips gap up at $1.5930 and rose to $1.5960.

USD/JPY opened with a 55-pip gap down, but then recovered to 99.10 after closing at 99.23 on Friday. It’s a bank holiday in Japan today. USD/CHF opened with more than 60-pip gap down and then rose to 0.9260. AUD/USD opened with an almost 80-pip gap up, then spiked to $0.9392, but then returned to the top of the Ichimoku Cloud in the $0.9320 area. NZD/USD opened with a 70-pip gap up, but then returned to the 200-day MA at $0.8180. USD/CAD has formed a relatively small bearish gap and was pressed to the 1.0300 mark.

[⭐ kaito kid]

Key currency options

Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (14:00 GMT).

Here are the key options expiring today:

EUR/USD: $1.3240, $1.3250, $1.3280, $1.3300, $1.3325, $1.3345;

GBP/USD: $1.5750, $1.5860;

USD/JPY: 98.50, 99.20, 99.30, 99.40, 99.50, 100.00;

AUD/USD: $0.9200, $0.9210, $0.9300, $0.9315, $0.9400;

USD/CAD: 1.0350;

GBP/AUD: 1.7150:

EUR/CHF: 1.2355, 1.2400.

http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/503

[⭐ kaito kid]

Trade signals from Danske Bank

EUR/USD: Hold long from $1.3243 with a target of $1.3427

USD/JPY: Hold short at 99.08 with a target of 98.06 and a stop at 99.56

GBP/USD: Hold long from $1.5785 with a revised target of $1.6010 and a stop at $1.5835

USD/CHF: Hold short from 0.9359 with a revised target of 0.9147 and a stop at 0.9345

AUD/USD: Look to buy

USD/CAD: Hold short from 1.0422 with a target of 1.0245 and a revised stop at 1.0370

http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/618

[⭐ kaito kid]

FBS: outlook for GBP/USD

GBP/USD is consolidating in the $1.5960/30 area. The pair has started this week with a gap. As the market still expects the Fed to taper bond purchases this week and GBP is overbought in the short term, we expect this gap to be filled – pound will correct to $1.5870/30 (bottom of the gap, middle Bollinger band on H4). As the general pound trend is bullish (the pair has settled above June highs), we expect the bulls to keep pressure on the upside. Sterling will test $1.5980 and possibly the psychological resistance at $1.6000. Resistance at $1.6035 and $1.6050 should be a ceiling in the coming sessions. We recommend buying GBP on the dips above $1.5830.

http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/619

[⭐ kaito kid]

EUR/USD: Elliot wave analysis

Weekly. The pair keeps forming corrective wave [2] which is taking form of a Zigzag with the wave (b) in the form of a long horizontal correction.

Chart. Weekly EUR/USD

Daily. The wave (b) may be complete. We are now witnessing the start of the wave (С) of [2].

Chart. Daily EUR/USD

H4. The price is likely to rise a bit more in the wave 2 which is taking the form of a Zigzag. When this wave is complete, we’ll see the beginning of a new downtrend in the wave 3. The critical level for this scenario is $1.3450. If this level is crossed, the forecast will be cancelled.

Chart. H4 EUR/USD

Roman Petuchov for FBS

http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/620

[⭐ kaito kid]

GBP/USD: Elliot wave analysis

Weekly. The pair keeps forming a global Zigzag with the wave B taking form of a horozontal triangle. The wave of C has probable ended and now we are witnessing the formation of the corrective wave [iI].

Chart. Weekly GBP/USD

Daily. The wave [iI] is taking form of a flat with an impulse wave (С). Now we are witnessing the formation of the final rising wave V.

Chart. Daily GBP/USD

H4. The detailed marking of the wave V is still not clear. For now there are no signs of the end or change in the uptrend. The critical level above which the prices shouldn’t rise is shown at the picture with a red line.

Chart. H4 GBP/USD

http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/621

Roman Petuchov for FBS

[⭐ kaito kid]

USD/JPY: Elliot wave analysis

Weekly. The pair keeps forming corrective wave which is taking form of a long horizontal correction.

Chart. Daily USD/JPY

H4. US dollar keeps forming the falling wave (D) of the horizontal triangle. The pair is likely to form the waves (D) and (E) of this triangle.

Chart. H4 USD/JPY

H1. The wave (D) may take for of a Zigzag a – b – c. As a after the correction in the wave b is over, the decline will resume.

Chart. H1 USD/JPY

Roman Petuchov for FBS

http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/623

[⭐ kaito kid]

Sep. 17: Asian session

US dollar is trading near a 4-week low on Tuesday as traders wait for the outcome of the Federal Fed’s 2-day policy meeting at which it’s expected to announce a modest reduction in its bond-buying stimulus. Also pay attention to US CPI data at 12:30 GMT.

EUR/USD is consolidating in the $1.3325/42 range. Yesterday the pair closed 60 pips lower from the $1.3385 high, but left the opening bullish gap open. Pay attention to the ZEW sentiment indices at 9:00 GMT – they are expected to reach the new highs. GBP/USD strengthened from the daily low of $1.5888 to $1.5915. Great Britain will release a bunch of inflation data at 8:30 GMT.

USD/JPY rose to 99.35. USD/CHF is correcting down a bit after it added about 40 pips yesterday to 0.9278. AUD/USD is trading just above $0.9300 after it tested $0.8185 earlier today. Aussie weakened after the minutes of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s last policy meeting released today showed that the central bank retains the option of reducing interest rates and said a further decline in the local currency would aid the economy. NZD/USD closed yesterday below the 200-day MA at $0.8180. Kiwi’s supported around $0.8155. USD/CAD has slightly recovered from the yesterday’s low of 1.0280 to 1.0325.

http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/512

[⭐ kaito kid]

Key currency options

Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (14:00 GMT).

Here are the key options expiring today:

EUR/USD: $1.3200, $1.3220, $1.3250, $1.3300, $1.3350, $1.3355, $1.3360;

GBP/USD: $1.5980;

USD/JPY: 98.30, 98.75, 98.90, 99.00, 99.10, 99.35, 99.50, 100.00;

AUD/USD: $0.9200, $0.9300, $0.9315, $0.9355, $0.9400;

USD/CAD: 1.0220, 1.0245, 1.0450;

EUR/GBP: 0.8400.

http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/513

[⭐ kaito kid]

Trade signals from Danske Bank

EUR/USD: Hold long from $1.3243 with a target of $1.3427 and a stop at $1.3250

USD/JPY: Hold short at 99.08 with a target of 98.06 and a stop at 99.56

GBP/USD: Hold long from $1.5785 with a revised target of $1.6010 and a stop at $1.5835

USD/CHF: Hold short from 0.9359 with a revised target of 0.9147 and a stop at 0.9345

AUD/USD: Hold long from $0.9225 with a target of $0.9416 and a stop at $0.9180

USD/CAD: Hold short from 1.0422 with a target of 1.0245 and a revised stop at 1.0370

* The bank applies trailing stop orders

http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/625

[⭐ kaito kid]

Westpac: EUR/USD this week

Analysts at Westpac point out that if the Fed reduces QE by less than $10-15 billion and Ben Bernanke gives more dovish press conference, EUR/USD may strengthen to $1.3450/3500.

At the same time, the specialists warn about Germany’s federal election on Sunday which may bring some caution to EUR as Chancellor Merkel seems in danger of losing a coalition partner. Westpac inclines to selling EUR/USD on rallies this week pointing out that much of Europe’s “good” economic news is probably already behind us.

http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/629

[⭐ kaito kid]

Westpac: buy USD/JPY on dips

According to Westpac strategists, it still makes sense to buy USD/JPY on dips multi-week.

"The sales tax decision seems virtually made, with the hike on the way but probably some looser policy elsewhere to cushion the blow. The BoJ might even play a role in due course. But this week’s focus should be firmly on the Fed. Multi-week bias still to buy dips."

http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/631

[⭐ kaito kid]

Sep. 18: Asian session

EUR/USD rose by about 30 pips yesterday. The pair was little changed during today’s Asian session and is trading in the $1.3360 area. The pair remains near the 3-week high before the Fed concludes a 2-day meeting today when policy makers will decide whether to slow its $85 billion of monthly asset purchases. All in all, the Asian session has been quiet as investors are in the anticipation of the FOMC’s announcement at 18:00 GMT and the following press conference of Ben Bernanke.

GBP/USD is trading on the upside above $1.5900, though below Monday’s high at $1.5962. The Bank of England will release its meeting minutes at 08:30 GMT. USD/JPY is trading in the 99.33/10 area. Yen weakened against most major peers as stock gains curbed demand for haven assets. USD/CHF is hanging above 0.9250.

AUD/USD has stalled in the $0.9350 area. NZD/USD edged down a bit to $0.8222 after it gained more than 60 pops yesterday. Domestic minor data in New Zealand and Australia came out better than expected. New Zealand is to release GDP tonight (forecast: +0.2%). USD/CAD is trading just below 1.0300. Bank of Canada’s Governor Poloz speaks at 14:40 GMT. Gold broke lower to fresh 5-week lows at $1290, while oil has managed to hold above recent fresh 2-week lows above the $105.5 mark.

http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/519

[⭐ kaito kid]

Key currency options

Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (14:00 GMT).

Here are the key options expiring today:

EUR/USD: $1.3340, $1.3350, $1.3370, $1.3375, $1.3400, $1.3410, $1.3450;

GBP/USD: $1.5800, $1.5900, $1.5925, $1.6000;

USD/JPY: 98.75,99.00, 99.30, 99.35, 99.40, 99.50, 99.60, 100.00;

USD/CHF: 0.9350;

AUD/USD: 0.9250, 0.9350, 0.9355;

USD/CAD: 1.0220, 1.0300, 1.0325;

NZD/USD: 0.8235;

GBP/AUD: 1.7080.

http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/520

[⭐ kaito kid]

GBP/USD rose on MPC meeting

GBP/USD reached $1.5977, the new highest level since January. The Bank of England released the minutes of its last meeting: the benchmark interest rate and the asset purchase program were left unchanged at 0.5% and 375 billion pounds respectively. No MPC member is seeing the need for further stimulus in the UK economy. In addition, the BoE said the recent higher oil prices could have a temporary effect on UK consumer prices. The central bank also acknowledged the higher UK rate expectations although provided no details on the matter.

Resistance is at $1.5980, $1.6000/05 and $1.6039. Support is at $1.5885, $1.5870, $1.5830.

http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/522

[⭐ kaito kid]

Trade signals from Danske Bank

EUR/USD: Hold long from $1.3243 with a target of $1.3427 and a stop at $1.3250

USD/JPY: Hold short at 99.08 with a target of 98.06 and a stop at 99.56

GBP/USD: Hold long from $1.5785 with a target of $1.6010 and a stop at $1.5835

USD/CHF: Hold short from 0.9359 with a target of 0.9147 and a stop at 0.9345

AUD/USD: Hold long from $0.9305 with a target of $0.9440 and a stop at $0.9260

USD/CAD: Hold short from 1.0422 with a target of 1.0245 and a stop at 1.0370

* The bank applies trailing stop orders

http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/632

[⭐ kaito kid]

EUR/USD: Ichimoku analysis

Daily. Bulls are starting to dominate on the EUR/USD technical front. The currency pair pushed up from the Kijun-sen support on the daily chart and returned to growth after the last week's uncertainty. Evidently, a fix above 1.3300 was agood buying stimulus for the market. We expect the pair to retest the yearly highs of 1.3420-1.3450 in the near-term. The current Ichimoku configuration is not entirely clear, since the short-term trend is determined by the "dead cross "©. But, at the same time, the cloud is bullish - Senkou Span A (SSA) is set to increase. This situation is fraught with the return of the pair to the upper boundary of the cloud.

Chart. Daily EUR/USD

H4. There is a certain degree of uncertainty is on the H4 chart. So, after a rebound from the top of the cloud, the rate of the currency pair has reached the target level of the current recovery - 1.3380. There is a high probability of a prolonged consolidation at these levels. We also concede a decline towards Senkou Span A. In addition, we pay attention to the lower border of the cloud - SSB, which went down unexpectedly, reducing the positive power of cloud. Therefore, even despite the golden cross ©, this week buyingseems to be very risky.

Chart. H4 EUR/USD

http://fxbazooka.com/en/analitycs/show/633

[⭐ kaito kid]

Sep. 19: Asian session

US dollar fell yesterday versus its peers as the Fed unexpectedly kept the current pace of asset purchases that tend to debase the greenback, while the economists expected it to taper quantitative easing. Chairman Ben Bernanke refused to commit to begin reducing the bond purchases this year. The Bloomberg Dollar Index toward the lowest level in seven months.

EUR/USD jumped by more than 200 pips on Wednesday touching $1.3540 (highest level since January) and closing at $1.3520. The pair is trading around $1.3530 as of writing. Prospects of the pair have significantly improved since yesterday. There are no data releases in euro zone scheduled for today, so the market will likely keep digesting the FOMC-caused shock. GBP/USD rocketed to $1.6162 yesterday (highest since January). Today the cable is trading under slight pressure around $1.6130. Watch the UK retail sales at 8:30 GMT.

USD/JPY is trading by about 40 pips up in the 98.30 area after it lost more than 100 pips yesterday. Yen declined today as Japan had a trade deficit for a 14th month. USD/CHF is little changed at 0.9120 after it dropped by 140 pips yesterday. The Swiss National Bank announced its interest rate decision at 07:30 GMT.

AUD/USD is trading right below $0.9500. Aussie’s correcting a bit after it rose gained about 65 pips yesterday and rose to $0.9528. NZD/USD is rising for the third day in a row. The pair has reached the highest levels since early May above $0.8400. New Zealand’s GDP added 0.2% in Q2, in line with expectations. USD/CAD dropped to 1.0215. The downside was limited by the 200-day MA. Canada will release wholesale sales figures at 12:30 GMT.

http://fxbazooka.com/en/news/show/525