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USD/CAD dips to 1.2620 on data



FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The greenback remains on the defensive camp on Thursday, now dragging USD/CAD to session lows around 1.2620.

USD/CAD weaker post-US calendar

The pair is extending its descent after overnight peaks around 1.2770 against a backdrop of a softer dollar in the global markets. Spot gained further selling momentum after disappointing data from the US retail sales, dropping 0.6% MoM in February and 0.1% excluding the Autos sector.

In the Canadian docket, New Housing Price Index contracted 0.1% in February and gained 1.4% on a yearly basis.

USD/CAD key levels

At the moment the pair is retreating 0.79% at 1.2648 with the next support at 1.2617 (low Mar.11) ahead of 1.2598 (low Mar.10) and finally 1.2574 (low Mar.9). On the upside, a breakout of 1.2772 (high Feb.2) would open the door to 1.2800 (2015 high Jan.30) and then 1.2845 (high Mar.13 2009).







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Mar 12,2015
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[OctaFX_Farid]

EUR/USD consolidates above 1.0600



FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The single currency is now looking to consolidate the recent break above the 1.06 handle vs. the dollar, with EUR/USD meandering around 1.0630 so far.

EUR/USD stronger on risk, USD weakness

The selling mood around the greenback is not giving up so far, bolstering the better tone in the pair, which is now trying to cement the recent breakout of 1.06 the figure. The pair managed to shrug off the initial weakness that sent the euro to test fresh 12-year lows at 1.0494 overnight, advancing since then along with a rising profit-taking bias in the USD.

Poor US retail sales during February added to the USD softness, with the Reuters/Michigan index due tomorrow as the only relevant release left in the week (95.5 exp. in March).

EUR/USD levels to consider

The pair is advancing 0.68% at 1.0619 with the next hurdle at 1.0718 (high Mar.11) followed by 1.0757 (100-h MA) and then 1.0855 (high Mar.10). On the downside, a breach of 1.0494 (12-year low Mar.12) would expose 1.0335 (2003 low Jan.2) and finally 1.0207 (low Dec.19 2002).






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Mar 12,2015
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[OctaFX_Farid]

AUD/USD peeks above 0.7700



FXStreet (Córdoba) - AUD/USD extended its recovery from nearly 6-year lows and climbed to 3-day highs above 0.7700 as the greenback continued to correct following strong gains.

The US dollar retreated further following weaker than expected US retail sales figures, sending AUD/USD to a high of 0.7729 before the 200-hour SMA offered resistance. At time of writing, the pair is trading at 0.7695, recording a 1.65% gain on the day.

The recovery of the Australian dollar was also helped by solid domestic employment data published during the Asian session. The Australian economy added 15.6K new jobs in February versus 15.0K expected, while the jobless rate inched down to 6.3%, matching forecast.

AUD/USD technical levels

In terms of technical levels, AUD/USD could find immediate resistances at 0.7729 (daily high) and 0.7750 (Mar 3 low). On the flip side, supports are seen at 0.7660 (100-hour SMA) and 0.7600 (psychological level) ahead of 0.7560 (2015 low Mar 11).





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Mar 12,2015
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[OctaFX_Farid]

EUR/USD potential test of parity by mid-year – Westpac



FXStreet (Edinburgh) - In the view of Strategist Richard Franulovich at Westpac, the pair could attempt a visit to the parity level by the mid of the present year.

Key Quotes

“EUR looks very wounded here as both cyclical and structural forces continue to weigh”.

“Pockets of better data (especially business surveys) in response to the sharp easing in Eurozone financial conditions will likely prove to be nothing more than opportunities to sell EUR, as policy differentials continue to swing in the USD’s favour and net fixed income outflows pick up pace”.

“Would watch 10yr bund yields for near term direction. Price action of late suggests concerns about lopsided positions are overdone with EUR/USD seemingly intent on testing parity before mid-year”.






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Mar 12,2015
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[OctaFX_Farid]

Brent back below USD 58.00/barrel



FXStreet (Mumbai) - Brent prices are back below USD 58/barrel as the US dollar index recovered part of its losses.

Brent supported by unrest in the middle east

Iraqi security forces and mainly Shi'ite militia exchanged fire with Islamic State fighters in Tikrit on Thursday, a day after pushing into Saddam Hussein's home city in their biggest offensive yet against the militants.

Prices had rose above USD 58.00/barrel as the USD had weakened after the retail sales contracted for the third month in a row. However, the weakness in the USD index was short lived as the greenback made a comeback on an upbeat weekly jobless claims data. The USD index recovered from the low of 98.65 to trade higher at 99.20 levels. Consequently, Brent futures were pushed below USD 58.00/barrel.

Brent Crude Technical Levels

The April futures currently trade at USD 57.90/barrel, up 0.74% for the day. The immediate resistance is seen at 58.06, above which gains could be extended to 58.70 levels. On the flip side, support is seen at 57.60 and 57.00 levels.





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Mar 12,2015
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[OctaFX_Farid]

USD/CAD bounces at 1.2615 and rises to 1.2680



FXStreet (Tokyo) - After falling 150 pips from 1.2765, the USD/CAD finally found support at 1.2615 where it experienced a buying interest that sent it back to 1.2680.

Currently, USD/CAD is trading at 1.2672, down 0.60% on the day, having posted a daily high at 1.2770 and low at 1.2617. USD/CAD spot is in neutral territory according to the hourly FXStreet OB/OS Index, while the FXStreet Trend Index is slightly bearish.

USD/CAD levels

If the pair extends its bounce from 1.2615, next resistance will be found at 1.2700, 1.2770 and 1.2800. TO the downside, supports are at the mentioned 1.2615, then 1.2600 and 1.2570.







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Mar 12,2015
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[OctaFX_Farid]

EUR/USD falling quickly towards parity – BTMU



FXStreet (Barcelona) - Lee Hardman, Currency Analyst at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ, maintains a bearish bias on EUR/USD for the week ahead, with Fed expected to raise expectations for the mid-year rate hike in its upcoming meeting the EUR will continue to slide.

Key Quotes

“The euro is likely to remain under downward pressure against the US dollar in the week ahead. The market has parity firmly in its sights now and there is little left in the way of technical support between the current spot rate and parity.”

“The widening divergence monetary policy between the ECB and the Fed is likely to be highlighted again at the upcoming FOMC meeting. The Fed is expected to signal it remains on course to gradually begin raising rates from around the middle of this year.”

“Dropping the signal that it can be “patient” before normalizing policy is likely to encourage higher short-term US yields supporting a stronger US dollar.”

“In contrast the ECB’s aggressive easing is proving increasingly successful at both lowering nominal and real yields in the euro-zone and weakening the euro.”

“Investor sentiment is also being soured at the margin in the near-term by the high implementation risks surrounding the recent agreement in principle to extend financing support to Greece.”

“EUR/USD – Bearish Bias – (1.0300-1.0800)”







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Mar 12,2015
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[OctaFX_Farid]

USD/JPY climbs back above 121.00



FXStreet (Córdoba) - Following a quick drop to the 120.70 area at the beginning of the session on the back of weak US retail sales data, USD/JPY managed to bounce off lows and climbed back above the 121 mark.

The dollar was already under pressure before data as it goes through a corrective phase. USD/JPY bottomed out at 120.68 but managed to bounce toward the 121.25 zone in recent dealings. At time of writing, the pair is trading at the 121.20 zone, still down 0.19% below its opening price.

USD/JPY technical outlook

“In the 4 hours chart the technical indicators have crossed below their midlines, but lost the bearish potential and turned flat in negative territory”, said Valeria Bednarik, chief analyst at FXStreet. “A price acceleration below the daily low however, may push the pair further down, eyeing then an approach to the critical 120.00 figure”.

Bednarik locates next support levels at 120.65, 120.30 and 120.00, while she places resistances at 121.40, 121.85 and 122.30.







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Mar 12,2015
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[OctaFX_Farid]

USD/JPY climbs back above 121.00



FXStreet (Córdoba) - Following a quick drop to the 120.70 area at the beginning of the session on the back of weak US retail sales data, USD/JPY managed to bounce off lows and climbed back above the 121 mark.

The dollar was already under pressure before data as it goes through a corrective phase. USD/JPY bottomed out at 120.68 but managed to bounce toward the 121.25 zone in recent dealings. At time of writing, the pair is trading at the 121.20 zone, still down 0.19% below its opening price.

USD/JPY technical outlook

“In the 4 hours chart the technical indicators have crossed below their midlines, but lost the bearish potential and turned flat in negative territory”, said Valeria Bednarik, chief analyst at FXStreet. “A price acceleration below the daily low however, may push the pair further down, eyeing then an approach to the critical 120.00 figure”.

Bednarik locates next support levels at 120.65, 120.30 and 120.00, while she places resistances at 121.40, 121.85 and 122.30.







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Mar 12,2015
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[OctaFX_Farid]

EUR/USD stays below 1.0600 after US PPI



FXStreet (Córdoba) - EUR/USD is extending its consolidation phase around the 1.0600 level, as the shared currency takes a breather following a sharp sell-off seen over the last days.

EUR/USD bottomed out at 1.0499 on Thursday, posting its lowest level in 12 years, but managed to trim some losses and settled in a narrow range where it has spent the last sessions. EUR/USD is currently trading at the 1.0570 area, still 0.6% lower on the day.

Lower than expected US producer prices for February had little impact on the dollar as investors attention turns to the FOMC meeting next Wednesday. Last weeks strong non-farm payrolls data fueled speculations the Fed could raise rates sooner than expected, lifting the greenback and weighing on US equities.

On the data front, US producer price index unexpectedly dropped by 0.5% in February, missing expectations of a 0.3% increase. The core index, which excludes food and energy also fell by 0.5%, undershooting +0.1% of forecast.





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Mar 13,2015
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[OctaFX_Farid]

Banxico intervenes to calm markets – Scotiabank



FXStreet (Edinburgh) - Chief FX Strategist at Scotiabank Eduardo Suarez assessed the recent measures by the Mexican central bank, Banxico.

Key Quotes

“MXN decoupled from broad‐based USD strength yesterday, following the FX Commission’s announcement of additional measures to stabilize the peso market”.

“Banxico will now be selling US$52mn in the spot market on a daily basis in order to provide dollar liquidity to the local market”.

“These sales will not be tied to a specific level, and will take place in addition to the US$200mn that Banxico has been offering at a minimum price since December 2014”.

“Despite these additional mechanism, Banxico remains a “net FX reserve accumulator”, due to the USD it purchases from oil sales. We were surprised by the FX intervention announcement, given we only expected verbal signs that authorities were watching markets for signs of deteriorating liquidity”.

“We don’t think this intervention size is by any means a trend changer, but it should serve to calm markets by signalling stronger measures could be expected if markets break‐down”.






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Mar 13,2015
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[OctaFX_Farid]

EUR/USD parity call....June 2015 – Rabobank



FXStreet (Barcelona) - With Fed expected to start tightening in mid-year 2015, Chris Turner of Rabobank, views that EUR/USD might hit the targeted 1.00 level much earlier – probably June.

Key Quotes

“We are moving closer to the first Fed tightening since the onslaught of the global financial crisis. The FOMC meeting of 18 March should help frame expectations on whether the Fed would indeed start tightening in June as we expect.”

“We doubt that investors, speculators or corporates are prepared to stand in the way of a powerful dollar bull trend.”

“Unless the Fed surprises by suggesting that dollar strength has been sufficient to tighten monetary conditions and delay the tightening cycle (which we very much doubt), EUR/USD may well hit our year-end 1.00 target much earlier.”

“Indeed, we are bringing forward our EUR/USD parity call to June 2015 and see the low point in this cycle of 0.90 being hit summer 2016.”






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Mar 13,2015
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[OctaFX_Farid]

USD/JPY: above 121.95 will gain strong upward momentum – FXStreet



FXStreet (Barcelona) - Valeria Bednarik, Chief Analyst at FXStreet, gives explains that USD/JPY technicals exhibit a neutral stance, with the pair seeking a catalyst for further upside movement.

Key Quotes

“The USD/JPY consolidates in a tight range around the 121.40 level, unable to find a catalyst. The 1 hour chart presents a mild positive tone, as the price holds above a bullish 100 SMA whilst the indicators bounce higher from their midlines, amid showing no actual momentum.”

“In the 4 hours chart the pair presents a neutral technical stance, with the technical indicators flat right above their midlines.”

“Some follow through above 121.95 is required to see the pair gaining a stronger upward momentum, whilst dips towards the 121.00 price zone will likely attract buyers, keeping the pair within range.”

“Support levels: 121.15 120.65 120.30"

“Resistance levels: 121.50 121.95 122.40”






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Mar 13,2015
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[OctaFX_Farid]

EUR/USD intensifies the downside to 1.0500momentum – FXStreet



FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The single currency is now rapidly losing the grip vs. its American counterpart on Friday, dragging EUR/USD to another test of the 1.0500 handle.

EUR/USD lower on USD bid tone

Spot is now losing over 1% and is challenging the 1.05 neighbourhood despite the Reuters/Michigan index, which measures the US investor confidence, missed estimates in its preliminary reading for the current month, dropping to 91.2 vs. 95.5 expected and February’s 95.4.

The greenback has resumed its underlying upside bias today after yesterday’s deep sell off, recovering the upper-99.00s in terms of the US Dollar Index.

Data wise in the US economy, producer prices during February and the preliminary March print of the Michigan/Reuters index disappointed markets coming in below expectations.

EUR/USD levels to consider

The pair is retreating 1.03% at 1.0525 and a breakdown of 1.0504 (low Mar.13) would target 1.0494 (12-year low Mar.12) en route to 1.0335 (2003 low Jan.2). On the flip side, the initial up-barrier lines up at 1.0683 (high Mar.12) followed by 1.0718 (high Mar.11) and finally 1.0855 (high Mar.10).







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Mar 13,2015
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[OctaFX_Farid]

RBS estimate UK GDP growth in Q1 - RBS



FXStreet (Guatemala) - Analysts at RBS explained that the official UK construction and industrial output data for January have been weaker than expected, prompting their GDP Tracker to signal economic growth of 0.5% q/q in Q1.

Key Quotes:

"Business surveys have been a little firmer and there remains scope for some upward revisions to the official data. Although a 0.5% pace of expansion would match that of Q4, it would nevertheless be a little disappointing given that growth in the final quarter of last year came in below expectations (0.6%) and BoE and City consensus forecasts are for a pick-up to 0.6% in Q1."

"The UK economy continues to perform reasonably well – certainly vs the euro area – but we remain of the view that the risks for 2015 as a whole are for an undershoot of the 2.7% consensus."

"The preliminary estimate of Q1 2015 GDP will be published on 28 April 2015."




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Mar 13,2015
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[OctaFX_Farid]

EUR/JPY: Offered with heavy supply in EUR/USD



FXStreet (Guatemala) - EUR/JPY is currently trading at 127.32 with a high of 129.07 and a low of 127.15.

EUR/JPY is extending the downside, with the euro making losses across the board as the greenback takes charge once again. USD/JPY is relatively steady but better offered while EUR/USD is breaking down through the key 1.05 handle and scoring lows in the 80's currently at new 12 year lows.

This comes despite the poorer data releases from the US today were PPI's were lower, with a strong dollar and weakness in the oil market taking a hold. Meanwhile for the cross, the pair is moving back in to negative territory and furthering the downside trend in the broader time frames.




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Mar 13,2015
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[OctaFX_Farid]

EUR/GBP to continue lower in to 2016 - Rabobank



FXStreet (Guatemala) - Analysts at Rabobank noted that the UK Chancellor of the Exchequer will outline the last budget ahead of the May 7 general election next week.

Key Quotes:

"Just a few months ago this budget had been dismissed as a damp squib since it was assumed that the government would be too far behind its deficit target to release any pre-election sweeteners."

"Revisions to the first nine months of the fiscal year and a large January surplus mean that the budget outlook has since improved. Speculation that the Chancellor could have some room for electioneering in the budget has thus increased. Even so, with the two main UK political parties still neck and neck in the polls, talk of hung parliaments, king makers, a second election and even a grand coalition are likely to persist."

"In view of the wide range of political uncertainty, there is the risk that sterling could come under pressure ahead of the election. To date there has been little sign of jitters and we argue that these concerns have been stifled by the relative attraction of the sterling interest rate curve."

"While GBP could stutter on a 1 to 3 mth view on the back of political uncertainties we expect that EUR/GBP will continue its trend lower into 2016."




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Mar 13,2015
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[OctaFX_Farid]

Session recap: US dollar takes the week's leader board



FXStreet (Guatemala) - With the Fed approaching next week, the greenback was strong again this week and took out new yearly lows across a number of its counterparts in the FX space.

The US data was in the most part ignored today as the market piled in to the greenback. Oil tumbled, stocks dropped early session recovering somewhat in to the close, and the market continued to lay on the supply in the single currency on the back of the ECB's programme commencing this week.

EUR/USD was taken down to yet new lows and well and truly bringing in the question of 'parity' into the picture. The single bloc currency was offered into the London shift and took out 1.0510 as the US session got under way, where traders were without an appetite for the euro and scrambling for the greenback. Through the handle was a quick run of stops towards the mid point of 1.04 before recovering for a second time from areas 1.0465 and 1.0461, the low, and into a minor recovering drift into the close.

USD/CAD was strong, moving up and scoring new yearly highs also. Since the start of the year we are around 12 cents higher, and the price of oil continues to dictate the pair. WTI was circa $5 down at one point on the day with plenty of the black stuff in supply. The loonie was 1.2825 to the greenback and at its weakest point since 2009.

GBP/USD was injured in taking a heavy knock from the markets appetite for the US dollar and went from 1.4898 to 1.4698, starting the move in early London and finishing up in the US shift. There was some give back on the back of the PPI's misses and consumer confidence disappointing in the US but that was short lived by 50 pips that were faded at the upper quarter of the 1.47 handle. The pound ended up reaching the lowest level since 2010 at 1.4698.

USD/JPY was relatively steady in a tight 25 pips range while the Aussie and Kiwi were suffering the dollars come back. AUD/USD was starting 0.7712 overnight and ending with a low 0.7608 by the US close. NZD/USD was in territory circa 0.74 and then down to 0.7312 the low.

Key Data events:

Canadian Net Change in Employment (Feb): 1.0K vs -5.0k consensus

Canadian Unemployment Rate (Feb): 6.8% vs 6.7% consensus

US Producer Price Index (YoY) (Feb): -0.6% vs 0.0% consensus

Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (Mar) Preliminar: 91.2 vs 95.5 exp






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Mar 14,2015
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[OctaFX_Farid]

United Kingdom CB Leading Economic Index up to 0.2% in January from previous 0%



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Mar 16,2015
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[OctaFX_Farid]

US industrial production slows down in February



FXStreet (Mumbai) - The official data released in the US today showed the industrial production expanded 0.1% in February, compared to the estimate of 0.2% expansion. The industrial production was revised lower to -0.3% in January.

Capacity utilization inched higher to 78.9%, beating the estimate of 79.5%, and up from 79.1% seen in January. Meanwhile, manufacturing production contracted 0.2% against the expectation of 0.1% growth. The January’s print was revised lower to -0.3%. The mining sector led the way lower with decline in Coal, Oil and Gas drilling, while utilities production rose.




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Mar 16,2015
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[OctaFX_Farid]

Strong USD: not a concern for the Fed – BTMU



FXStreet (Edinburgh) - Currency Analyst Lee Hardman at BTMU sees the Fed not concerned about the current high levels of the US dollar.

Key Quotes

“The recent strength of the US dollar will also result in investors listening closely for any change in rhetoric regarding the US dollar which may potentially impact the outlook for Fed policy”.

“At the current juncture we do not expect the Fed to signal heightened concern over the stronger US dollar, although it supports the market’s expectation for a very gradual pace of monetary tightening in the coming years”.




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Mar 16,2015
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[OctaFX_Farid]

US 10-yr treasuries: short to 2.30% onto 2.52% - RBS



FXStreet (Barcelona) - Dmytro Bondar, Technical Analyst at RBS, gives the technical outlook for US-10 yr treasuries, suggesting to use any pullbacks towards the trend-line as shorting opportunities for 2.30%.

Key Quotes

“The market has broken the trend-line, implying yield downside is limited from here: it is deemed unlikely that the yield would re-visit the area below 2.00% and hence we see any pull-backs towards the trend-line as selling opportunities for 2.30% and 2.52%.”

“Our long-term view is the same: 1.61/1.78% yield was considered to be a base and 3.00% targeted for the end of 2015.”

“Price-wise 127-19+ is a key resistance, where we see a selling area, looking for a pull-back to 124-30. Stop is a break above 128-05.”





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Mar 16,2015
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[OctaFX_Farid]

BoE minutes to show no changes in monetary policy – TDS



FXStreet (Edinburgh) - In the view of Jacqui Douglas, Strategist at TD Securities, the upcoming BoE minutes should come in line with consensus, showing the monetary policy stance unchanged.

Key Quotes

“Markets will be looking for another unanimous vote to keep rates unchanged, especially after the BoE (accidentally, we think) published a press release after the 5 March rate decision saying that “The Minutes of the Monetary Policy Committee meeting on 4 and 5 March reveal a unanimous vote on Bank Rate and Asset Purchases.”

“Recent comments from Weale and McCafferty also didn’t suggest that either one of them has changed their votes back to hiking quite yet”.





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Mar 16,2015
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[OctaFX_Farid]

Gold falls into losses



FXStreet (Mumbai) - Gold prices fell into losses as the equity markets in the US shrugged-off a weaker-than-expected US industrial production data.

Gold: drops below 5-DMA, weak USD ignored

The support at the 5-DMA level located at USD 1154.85/Oz was finally taken out as the stock markets in the US showed resilience amid lackluster US data. The DJIA stayed resilient with a 1% gain amid a weaker-than-expected industrial production data in the US.

Meanwhile, the weak US dollar has failed to provide any support to the yellow metal. The USD index is down by 0.57% at 100.17, despite which the yellow metal currently trades lower at USD 1151.20/Oz levels.

Gold Technical Levels

The immediate support is located at 1147.4 (Mar. 11 low), under which losses could be extended to 1142.8 levels. On the flip side, resistance is 1154.80 (5-DMA), above which the metal could re-test the daily high at 1164.1 levels.






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Mar 16,2015
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Brent declines, WTI hit lowest since March 2009



FXStreet (Mumbai) - Brent Crude prices fell to near USD 53.00/barrel, its lowest in more than a month on signs of a possible nuclear deal with Iran, which could allow the nation to export more oil.

Brent for April delivery fell USD 52.83/barrel, its lowest since early February, before recovering slightly to trade at USD 53.17/barrel. Meanwhile, WTI Crude fell to USD 43.18/barrel, its lowest since March 2009, before recovering to 43.38/barrel.

The possibility of nuclear deal with Iran only increases the mounting risk of supply glut that has seen a renewed selling pressure in both the benchmarks over the last two weeks. Moreover, the markets have shrugged-off the OPEC monthly report, which forecasts a rise in global oil demand, coupled with a decline in the US oil production by year-end.





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