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[OctaFX_Farid]

WTI Crude rises above 50-DMA, trades positive




FXStreet (Mumbai) - WTI Crude April futures rose above 50-DMA located at USD 49.50/barrel, after having recovered from the low of USD 48.68 hit on concerns of excess supply.

WTI Crude: will it sustain above 50-DMA?

The recovery seen in Crude prices was largely in the absence of fresh fundamental trigger. Moreover, the Weekly US oil inventory data will start coming in from Tuesday, with the API Weekly Statistical data due later in the day and the EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report due on Wednesday.

In the meantime, Greece’s debt drama and Fed chairwoman Yellen’s testimony shall take the center stage. Both the issues can significantly impact the US dollar and thus lead to intraday swings in Crude prices. A weak USD could help Crude sustain above the 50-DMA located at USD 49.50. However, eventually the prices could decline sharply if the weekly supply data shows oil inventories in the US continued to rise in the last week.

WTI Crude Technical Levels

The immediate resistance is seen at 50.39 (5-DMA), above which gains could be extended to 51.46 (10-DMA). On the flip side, a break below 50-DMA at 49.50, could push the prices down to daily low of 48.68.








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Feb 24,2015
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[OctaFX_Farid]

EUR/USD erases daily losses, Yellen testimony eyed




FXStreet (Córdoba) - EUR/USD recovered from lows and trades little changed on the day as Eurogroup assesses Greek list of reforms and markets await Fed’s Yellen testimony before the Congress.

Greece delivered its proposed reforms to the Eurogroup today and finance ministers will hold a conference call to assess the list. If it is approved, Greece will get a 4-month extension of the bailout program.

Meanwhile, main attention turns to Federal Reserve chief, who is due to speak before of the Congress today after last week's FOMC minutes were judged dovish. Yellen semi-annual testimony is scheduled at 15:00 GMT.

EUR/USD was on the defensive during the European session and bottomed out at 1.1295, roughly at the same level it did yesterday, before bouncing. The pair has managed to erase intraday losses and it is currently trading 1.1330.

EUR/USD levels to watch

In terms of technical levels, EUR/USD could face next resistances at 1.1360 (100-hour SMA) and 1.1395 (Feb 23 high). On the flip side, supports are seen at 1.1295 (Feb 24 & 23 lows) and 1.1279 (Feb 20 low).









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Feb 24,2015
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[OctaFX_Farid]

FX Macro trade recommendations – JPM




FXStreet (Barcelona) - The J.P.Morgan Team shares the macro trade recommendations reflecting FX regimes where central bank policies will be in focus in coming weeks.

Key Quotes

“While our base case is that Denmark will continue to defend its peg with EUR, the intensity with which the DNB has had to intervene in FX markets is surprising and suggestive of ongoing pressure. Sell EUR/DKK 3- months forward.”

“The PBoC will likely allow further RMB weakness in the near-term. Buy USD/TWD 3-months forward to position for the spillover impact in a carry efficient way.”

“Stay short commodity currencies via long EUR/AUD and long GBP/NOK.”

“New trades: Short EUR/DKK and long USD/TWD both via 3-month forwards.”

“Existing trades: Hold long EUR/AUD and GBP/NOK in spot. Stay long 2-mo USD/SEK bearish riskreversal and short EUR/CZK (6-mo 1x2 spread).”






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Feb 24,2015
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[OctaFX_Farid]

USD/MXN drops to lows post-CPI




FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The Mexican peso is gathering some traction vs. its northern neighbor on Tuesday, taking USD/MXN to fresh session lows around 15.0700.

USD/MXN softer on data

The pair accelerated the intraday decline after consumer prices tracked by the 1st Half-Month CPI in the Aztec economy advanced at a monthly pace of 0.1% in February, reverting the previous contraction of 0.19%; Core prices followed suit, up 0.28% vs. -0.09% previous. In the US docket, Home Prices gauged by the S&P/Case-Shiller index advanced 4.5% on a year to December, surpassing both estimates and previous reading.

USD/MXN important levels

As of writing the pair is up 0.01% at 15.0917 and a surpass of 15.1555 (high Feb.11) would aim for 15.2660 (high Mar.9 2009). On the downside, the next support lines up at 15.000 (psychological level) ahead of 14.9858 (Tenkan Sen) and finally 14.8682 (21-d MA).






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Feb 24,2015
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[OctaFX_Farid]

Wall street could see lackluster trading ahead of Yellen testimony




FXStreet (Mumbai) - The US stock markets are likely to see lackluster trading on Tuesday as investors may prefer to remain on the sidelines ahead of Federal Reserve Janet Yellen's testimony before the Senate Banking Committee.

At the time of writing, the DJIA futures were up 0.07% at 18,098.50, while the S&P 500 futures were down 0.01% at 2106.45 levels. Meanwhile, NASDAQ futures were down 0.09% at 4440.70 and Russell futures were down 0.03% at 1230.00 levels. The VIX futures were down 0.88% at 16.88 levels.

Markets are likely to watch out for Yellen's remarks today and at a House Financial Services Committee hearing on Wednesday. Meanwhile, Standard & Poor's is scheduled to release its report on home prices, while Conference Board is due to release a separate report on consumer confidence in February.

The global cues are mixed, with markets across the Asia-Pacific region having moved mostly higher during trading on Tuesday, while the major European markets are turning in a mixed performance.







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Feb 24,2015
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[OctaFX_Farid]

USD/CAD supported at 1.2600




FXStreet (Edinburgh) -The greenback is now losing the grip vs. the Canadian dollar, with USD/CAD coming back from a brief test of the 1.2600 mark.

USD/CAD firmer ahead of Poloz

The pair is trading on the right footing today, advancing around a big-figure since the opening around 1.2560. However, the ascent seems to have run out of fuel in the 1.2660 area, allowing the ongoing correction.

A small recovery in the prices of the crude oil is seeing the barrel of WTI back around the key $50.00 handle, lending some support to the CAD. Ahead in the session, Yellen’s semi-annual testimony and the speech by Governor Poloz will dictate the pair’s price action.

USD/CAD levels to consider

The pair is now advancing 0.34% at 1.2620 with the next hurdle at 1.2665 (high Feb.24) ahead of 1.2697 (high Feb.11) and finally 1.2772 (high Feb.2). On the other hand, a breakdown of 1.2523 (low Feb.23) would target 1.2516 (21-d MA) en route to 1.2500 (psychological level).






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Feb 24,2015
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[OctaFX_Farid]

Stay short the Aussie – JP Morgan




FXStreet (Edinburgh) - Strategists at JP Morgan keep recommending selling the AUD, in light of further monetary easing by the RBA.

Key Quotes

“We continue to find value in being short AUD given our outlook on commodity prices and the outlook on the RBA”.

“The RBA has expressed a desire to weaken the currency, but that is unlikely to happen materially if it does not deliver rate cuts in the context of the rest of the world which is engaging in aggressive easing”.

“Our Antipodean strategists think that the RBA will thus deliver a total of 50bp easing in the 1H with a high likelihood that the next rate cut will be delivered in March”.

“Finally, this week Australia’s sovereign ratings also garnered some attention with news articles highlighting that S&P’s AAA rating could be at risk if the 30% Commonwealth Government debt/GDP ratio were to be breached (current ratio is 20%)”.

“While this is not imminent and is likely to be a slow burn issue, on the margin it is AUD-negative since it limits the magnitude of stimulus fiscal policy can deliver thus raising the onus on monetary policy”.






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Feb 24,2015
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[OctaFX_Farid]

FOCM March statement could mirror Yellen text Hislenrath



FXStreet (Mumbai) - Wall street Journals Fed watcher Jon Hilsenrath believes the March FOMC meeting statement could be almost similar to the Fed chief Yellens testimony.

He notes that the Fed could replace patient with Provided that labor market conditions continue to improve and further improvement is expected, the Committee anticipates that it will be appropriate to raise the target range for the federal funds rate when, on the basis of incoming data, the Committee is reasonably confident that inflation will move back over the medium term toward our 2 percent objective.

The phrase 'reasonably confident' appeared in the minutes of the December FOMC minutes. Several officials have said they want to start raising rates by June. It still isn't clear, however, if they'll reach the inflation confidence threshold by then," Hilsenrath notes.







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Feb 25,2015
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[OctaFX_Farid]

Mexico Accumulated Current Account/GDP increased to 2.1% in 4Q from previous 2%



Read more in Forex News






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Feb 25,2015
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[OctaFX_Farid]

GBP/USD likely to advance towards 1.5582 – FXStreet



FXStreet (Barcelona) - According to Valeria Bednarik, Chief Analyst at FXStreet, GBP/USD might move upwards towards 1.5582 levels if the pair manages to recover above 1.5500.

Key Quotes

“From a technical point of view, the 1 hour chart shows that the price holds above a bullish 20 SMA although indicators turned lower, now approaching their midlines.”

“In the 4 hours chart the price holds also above a bullish 20 SMA while the technical indicators are retracing from near overbought levels, still well above their midlines.”

“If the price manages to recover above 1.5500, the pair will likely continue advancing towards the 1.5582 level this year high."

“Support levels: 1.5450 1.5420 1.5390"

“Resistance levels: 1.5500 1.5535 1.5580”






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Feb 25,2015
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[OctaFX_Farid]

USD/JPY consolidates below 119.00 as Yellen testifies



FXStreet (Córdoba) - USD/JPY failed to hold gains and is back trading at the 118.90 area after a brief appearance above 119.00 as Federal Reserve Chair repeats yesterday’s introductory statement before the US Congress.

The dollar is showing mute reaction to Yellen so far, as investors await Q&A session to see if she could offer something new. USD/JPY peaked at 119.05 but quickly pulled back and it is currently trading around 118.90, virtually unchanged on the day.

USD/JPY technical levels

“The 1 hour chart shows that the price extends above its 100 and 200 SMAs while indicators head higher above their midlines, supporting additional advances in the short term, albeit some follow through beyond the 119.40 level is required to confirm a stronger advance”, said Valeria Bednarik, chief analyst at FXStreet. “In the 4 hours chart, the technical picture is neutral to bullish, as the price found intraday support in a bullish 10 SMA, but indicators lack directional strength”.






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Feb 25,2015
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[OctaFX_Farid]

EUR/JPY: Upside running out of legs



FXStreet (Guatemala) - EUR/JPY is currently trading at 135.06 with a high of 135.23 and a low of 134.56.

EUR/JPY risk lies to the downside in the main with pressures mounted from above the 144 handle below the catalyst point sub 150.00 at the end of 2014. We are consolidating the bear trend and the demand at 130.10 brings us to 136.00 resistance that is capping attempts at the upside. so, we remain negative and the short term correction higher looks like it's run its course.

Karen Jones, chief analyst at Commerzbank explained that for the past 3 weeks the cross has been correcting higher and appears to have halted well ahead of the 38.2% retracement at 137.65 and well ahead of the 200 day moving average at 139.36.






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Feb 25,2015
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[OctaFX_Farid]

Inflation expectations and ECBs QE, among the Riksbank concerns Danske Bank



FXStreet (Edinburgh) - In light of the recent minutes by the Riksbank, inflation expectations and the prospects of further downside in the euro via the ECBs QE are the main worries expressed by the Swedish central bank, suggested analysts at Danske Bank.

Key Quotes

Recent data suggest that (underlying) inflation is moving slowly upwards but after such a long period of undershooting inflation it would be much worse if it stayed low than if it rose faster than expected (even overshooting the target). Above all, inflation expectations have become a great concern, especially over the longer term and among unions and employers organisations.

Other risks mentioned were: the global situation, with uncertainties related to Greece and the conflict in Ukraine, and the sharp decline in oil prices (a potentially positive factor for global growth but also a risk to inflation expectations).

Also the ECB: it is clear to us that the board is nervous about the massive policy actions (QE) that the European Central Bank will launch shortly and that this could end up in a stronger krona.

In other words, the Riksbank wouldnt be happy to see a stronger krona at this stage (which in turn makes their forecast of exactly that happening slightly strange).

As far as the SEK10bn in bond purchases are concerned, the message is that it is a test (we find it hard to believe that the RB expects the purchases to have a major effect on inflation) and a signal that the bank is prepared to do (much) more if need be.







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Feb 26,2015
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[OctaFX_Farid]

NZD/USD to extend towards 0.7700 by next week – Westpac



FXStreet (Barcelona) - Imre Speizer of Westpac, gives the week ahead outlook for NZD/USD, stating that an extension towards 0.7700 won’t be surprising.

Key Quotes

“The recent rally is likely to extend next week. We target at least the 0.7610-0.7620 area (those were the main lows last Dec) but a run as far as 0.7700 would not surprise.”

“NZ’s economic data pulse is currently running hot, with dairy prices rising, migration at record levels, and the domestic economy in solid shape.”

“Combined with USD’s stall plus speculative positioning short NZD, an argument for multiweek NZD/USD strength can easily be made.”

“Further out, we expect a reversal in the NZ data pulse by April, and are more constructive on the US dollar, implying a decline in NZD/USD to 0.7100 by mid-year.”







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Feb 26,2015
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[OctaFX_Farid]

Bunds: bull flag triggered, targets 160.33 and 161.67 – RBS



FXStreet (Barcelona) - Dmytro Bondar, Technical Analyst at RBS, notes that with the bull flag triggered, bund futures are now targeting 160.33 and 161.67.

Key Quotes

“The market triggered the bullish flag, which we eyed in our previous publications, confirming the view for another bullish swing towards 0.22% and potentially lower yields. The level stays as a key Fibonacci retracement from the May-Sep impulse wave.”

“We have been buying against 158.20 futures level and see the next projected targets at 160.33 and 161.67. Stop can be moved higher to 159.00”

“SUP: 159.52 159.00 158.70”

“RES: 159.93 160.35 160.85”







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Feb 26,2015
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[OctaFX_Farid]

US inflation falls into negative territory



FXStreet (London) - The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers declined 0.7 percent in January on a seasonally adjusted basis, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index decreased 0.1 percent before seasonal adjustment.

The energy index fell 9.7 percent as the gasoline index fell 18.7 percent in January, the sharpest in a series of seven consecutive declines. The gasoline decrease was overwhelmingly the cause of the decline in the all items index, which would have risen 0.1 percent had the gasoline index been unchanged. The fuel oil index also fell sharply, and the index for natural gas turned down, although the electricity index rose. The food index was unchanged in January, with the food at home index falling for the first time since May 2013.

The index for all items less food and energy rose 0.2 percent in January. The shelter index rose 0.3 percent, and the indexes for personal care, for apparel, and for recreation increased as well. The medical care index was unchanged, while an array of indexes declined in January, including those for household furnishings and operations, alcoholic beverages, new vehicles, used cars and trucks, airline fares, and tobacco.

The all items index declined 0.1 percent over the last 12 months, the first negative 12-month change since the period ending October 2009. The energy index fell 19.6 percent over the span, with the gasoline index down 35.4 percent. The food index rose 3.2 percent, and the index for all items less food and energy increased 1.6 percent.






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Feb 26,2015
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[OctaFX_Farid]

US jobless claims increase 31k



FXStreet (London) - In the week ending February 21, the advance figure for US seasonally adjusted initial claims was 313,000, an increase of 31,000 from the previous week's revised level according to the Department for Labor. The previous week's level was revised down by 1,000 from 283,000 to 282,000.

The 4-week moving average was 294,500, an increase of 11,500 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised down by 250 from 283,250 to 283,000.

The Department for Labor reported that there were no special factors impacting this week's initial claims.
The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 1.8 percent for the week ending February 14, unchanged from the previous week's unrevised rate. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending February 14 was 2,401,000, a decrease of 21,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised down by 3,000 from 2,425,000 to 2,422,000. The 4-week moving average was 2,399,000, an increase of 1,750 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised down by 750 from 2,398,000 to 2,397,250.






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Feb 26,2015
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[OctaFX_Farid]

EUR/JPY dips below 134.00


FXStreet (Mumbai) - The EUR/JPY pair extended losses post the release of US data to trade below 134.00 levels. The upbeat US Durable goods data along with the sticky core inflation hurt the shared currency more than the Japanese Yen.

EUR/JPY: Breaches key support

The pair has breached the key support at 133.92 (Feb. 17 low) after the upbeat Durable goods orders data in the US weakened the EUR/USD pair to 1.1232; down 1.14%. On the other hand, the Japanese Yen weakened just 0.31% against the US dollar to trade at 119.22 per US dollar. Moreover, the rising Treasury yields in the US weighed more heavily on the shared currency compared to the Japanese Yen. The 10-year yield in the US has recovered losses to trade at 1.995%, up 2.6 basis points.

EUR/JPY Technical Levels

The pair currently trades at 133.89; down 0.85% for the day. The immediate support is seen at 133.50, under which losses could be extended to 132.68 levels. On the other hand, resistance is seen at 134.75 and 135.35 levels.






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Feb 26,2015
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[OctaFX_Farid]

USD/JPY maintains the range, upside move possible as risk aversion falls Scotiabank


FXStreet (Barcelona) - Camilla Sutton CFA, CMT, Chief FX Strategist at Scotiabank, reviews the Japanese data releases and warns of a further easing by the BoJ, and further predicts USD/JPY to break out of its broader range as volatility and risk aversion falls lower across markets.

Key Quotes

JPY is flat but still trading within its broader range, just above its 50‐day MA of 118.80. Data flow was disappointing, as inflation came in at 2.4% on headline, 2.2% ex fresh food and 2.1% ex food and energy; trending lower and still artificially elevated from the consumption tax increase.

The jobless rate rose unexpectedly to 3.6%, household spending collapsed down to 5.1%, retail sales disappointed, falling 2.0%y/y while housing starts were down 13%; the only bright spot was a 4%m/m rise in industrial production.

Governor Kuroda followed up, repeating comments that they expect to meet the BoJs CPI target (ex impact of inflation).

The deterioration in the fundamental data is concerning and warns of the potential for further BoJ policy action.

As volatility and risk aversion falls lower across markets, we expect USDJPY to break out of its recent narrow range towards the December highs of 121.85.





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Feb 27,2015
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[OctaFX_Farid]

EUR/USD returns to 1.1220 on US data


FXStreet (Edinburgh) -The single currency is giving away port of the initial gains vs. the dollar on Friday, sending EUR/USD to the 1.1225/20 band.

EUR/USD trims gains on GDP

After hitting session highs near 1.1240, the pair shed some pips following a better-than-expected US GDP, expanding 2.2% on a yearly basis during Q4. Consumer Prices tracked by the Personal Consumption Expenditures, contracted 0.4% inter-quarter during the same period, bettering consensus for a 0.5% drop.

Next on tap will be the Chicago PMI, Pending Home Sales and the Reuters/Michigan index.

EUR/USD relevant levels

As of writing the pair is advancing 0.26% at 1.1227 with the next hurdle at 1.1300 (psychological level) followed by 1.1335 (10-d MA) and finally 1.1350 (21-d MA). On the downside, a dip beyond 1.1184 (low Feb.26) would expose 1.1098 (11-year low Jan.26) and then 1.1047 (low Sep.8 2003).




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Feb 27,2015
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[OctaFX_Farid]

EUR/USD stablized into the NA opening hours - Scotiabank


FXStreet (Guatemala) - Camilla sutton, Chief FX strategist at Scotiabank explained that after yesterday's USD induced EUR weakness, driven by hawkish Fed comments and stronger than expected core CPI, today has EUR stabilized.

Key Quotes:

"Fundamental data included stronger than expected French consumer spending and Italian CPI, with Germany’s regional CPI also firming."

"This highlights an important theme for EUR, with data now improving and beating expectations how much lower will the currency fall. We expect that Fed interest rate hikes juxtaposed against negative interest rates in Europe and negative sentiment will continue to weigh on EUR; however for now the currency is contained within a month‐long range of 1.1098 to 1.1542. We hold a year‐end forecast of 1.05.





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Feb 27,2015
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[OctaFX_Farid]

EUR/USD stablized into the NA opening hours - Scotiabank


FXStreet (Guatemala) - Camilla sutton, Chief FX strategist at Scotiabank explained that after yesterday's USD induced EUR weakness, driven by hawkish Fed comments and stronger than expected core CPI, today has EUR stabilized.

Key Quotes:

"Fundamental data included stronger than expected French consumer spending and Italian CPI, with Germany’s regional CPI also firming."

"This highlights an important theme for EUR, with data now improving and beating expectations how much lower will the currency fall. We expect that Fed interest rate hikes juxtaposed against negative interest rates in Europe and negative sentiment will continue to weigh on EUR; however for now the currency is contained within a month‐long range of 1.1098 to 1.1542. We hold a year‐end forecast of 1.05.





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Feb 27,2015
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[OctaFX_Farid]

EUR/USD stablized into the NA opening hours - Scotiabank


FXStreet (Guatemala) - Camilla sutton, Chief FX strategist at Scotiabank explained that after yesterday's USD induced EUR weakness, driven by hawkish Fed comments and stronger than expected core CPI, today has EUR stabilized.

Key Quotes:

"Fundamental data included stronger than expected French consumer spending and Italian CPI, with Germany’s regional CPI also firming."

"This highlights an important theme for EUR, with data now improving and beating expectations how much lower will the currency fall. We expect that Fed interest rate hikes juxtaposed against negative interest rates in Europe and negative sentiment will continue to weigh on EUR; however for now the currency is contained within a month‐long range of 1.1098 to 1.1542. We hold a year‐end forecast of 1.05.





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Feb 27,2015
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[OctaFX_Farid]

GBP/JPY back to square one


FXStreet (Mumbai) - The GBP/JPY pair is back to trade near its opening rate of 184.04 as the British Pound weakened post the release of the better-than-expected US GDP data.

GBP/JPY: rejected at key Fibo level

The pair failed to sustain gains above the 61.8% retracement level of the down trend from 189.68 to 175.48 located at 184.27 levels. The pair hit a high of 184.39, but failed to sustain gains after the second estimate of the US Q4 GDP came-in at 2.3.5, beating the estimated 2%. The GBP/USD pair weakened to 1.54 levels, although the USD/JPY pair remained largely unchanged. Consequently, the GBP/JPY cross fell to 184.00 levels.

GBP/JPY Technical Levels

The immediate resistance is located at 184.27, above which it could rise to 185.00 levels. On the flip side, support is seen at 183.52 and 183.00 levels.






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Feb 27,2015
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[Marty Landry]

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