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Canada Unemployment Rate in line with forecasts (6.6%) in November


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Dec 05, 2014
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[OctaFX_Farid]

Massive NFP number - up 321k


FXStreet (London) - The US non-farm payrolls just printed a massive number, adding 321K new jobs in November, a huge leap on expectations of a 230k print.



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Dec 05, 2014
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[OctaFX_Farid]

USD/CAD in fresh 2014 highs


FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The US dollar is now accelerating its appreciation vs. the CAD, pushing USD/CAD to print fresh multi-year tops.

USD/CAD lifted by NFP

Spot is intensifying its upside momentum following the upbeat results from the US Payrolls during November, coming in at 321K vs. 232K forecasted; the unemployment rate remained at 5.8%, broadly in line with market consensus. Data releases from the Canadian docket showed the Net Change in Employment decreased by 10.7K vs. 5.0K previously estimated and the jobless rate at 6.6% from October’s 6.5%.

USD/CAD levels to watch

At the moment the pair is up 0.40% at 1.1424 with the next resistance at 1.1459 (high Dec.1) ahead of 1.1466 (2014 high Nov.5) and finally 1.1500 (psychological level). On the downside, a break below 1.1341 (low Dec.4) would target 1.1319 (low Dec.2) and then 1.1316 (Kijun Sen).



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Dec 05, 2014
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[OctaFX_Farid]

Non-farm payrolls: up 321k, US labour markets surge, job gains widespread.


FXStreet (London) - Data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics showed a huge jump in US job numbers.

Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 321,000 in November, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 5.8 percent.

Job gains were widespread, led by growth in professional and business services, retail trade, health care, and manufacturing.

The increase compares with an average monthly gain of 224,000 over the prior 12 months.

Today’s print marks the tenth straight month of 200k+ gains, the longest run since 1995.



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Dec 05, 2014
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[OctaFX_Farid]

AUD/USD plummets after US employment report to fresh 4-year low


FXStreet (Córdoba) - AUD/USD dropped from 0.8365 to 0.8319 in a few minutes on the back of an upbeat US jobs report that boosted greenback across the board.

According to the US Labor Department, the economy added 321.000 jobs in November, above the 230.000 expected by market consensus while the unemployment rate remained at 5.8% as expected.

During the last few minutes the pair moved slightly off session lows and was trading at 0.8330/35, headed toward the fourth daily decline in a row and the lowest close since June 2010.

Despite falling against the US dollar, the aussie managed to rise versus the yen after NFP. AUD/JPY was trading slightly above 101.00 at the highest in three days.



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Dec 05, 2014
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[OctaFX_Farid]

WTI Crude at day’s low


FXStreet (Mumbai) - Crude oil prices in the US remain weak despite a strong monthly jobs report in the US as sentiment soured after Saudi Arabia offered biggest discount on record to its oil customers across Asia.

WTI Crude for January delivery traded 1.39% lower at USD 65.85/barrel at the time of writing. Moreover, Crude prices hardly reacted to a stellar jobs report in the US as markets priced-in a sort of double whammy from the Saudis. Moreover, markets which were recovering from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting (OPEC) group’s decision to hold production levels unchanged, were caught off-guard after the Saudis state run oil company decided to extend its discount for Arab Light sales to Asia next month to USD 2/barrel below a regional benchmark.

Meanwhile, the inventory data released in the US yesterday also hurt prices. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) released yesterday showed oil production expanded to 9.08 million barrels a day through Nov. 28, the fastest rate in weekly records that started in January 1983.

WTI Crude Technical Levels

Crude has an immediate support located at 65.41, under which prices can fall to 64.31 levels. Meanwhile, resistance is seen at 66.71 and 67.77 levels.


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Dec 05, 2014
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[OctaFX_Farid]

US Session recap: and the title? "Nonfarm Payrolls"!


FXStreet (Guatemala) - USD has been underpinned by the release of the Nonfarm payrolls data in the US session. What was needed was an extraordinary figure for the market to react in any great way to the release and that is exactly what we got.

The Nonfarm Payrolls came in at 321K, which puts the twelve-month average now up to 278K. This is significant and the highest yet in an increasing trend over the past few years along the US's recovery. The next FOMC meeting is on December the 17th which is going to set the tone for the beginning of 2015, but until then, the markets will make their own minds up and this jobs report has shifted the greenback into a much higher gear. On the week, The Yen, AUD and NZD were the biggest losers to the dollar.

EUR/USD made a low of 1.2271, supported to some extent by EUR/JPY demand at the end of the week as it broke into new highs, but overall, the EUR was a fade on attempts against the trend of a stronger dollar, such as when factory orders were released, but was wearing losses of over a cent move on the release of the Nonfarm Payrolls data.

USD/JPY was relentless and marked out higher grounds into the 121 handle with a high of 121.69 from a low of 119.71, showing the market its moves again, and boy can it move when it gets going! Again, the US factory orders were the only dent in its bonnet on a strong performance and brings in the 2007 highs at 123.95 into the picture.

USD/CAD leaped up towards 1.1480 making a high of 1.1476 before supply drove the pair lower and into a drift from 1.1415 to 1.1445. WTI was sliding on lower US factory orders while Poloz sees lower oil prices a threat to growth, revising his forecasting by +0.8% and explaining that it will be a dent of 0.33% in growth for 2015.

GBP/USD was breaking lower, marking out territory below the November bottom, and brings us fresh lows to work from at 1.5569.

Key events

US October factory orders down vs expectations

US Non farm payrolls smashing expectations by 91k

US unemployment rate in line with expectations

Canadian November employment disappointing



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Dec 06, 2014
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[OctaFX_Farid]

Chile Core Consumer Price Index (Inflation) (MoM) fell from previous 0.7% to 0.3% in November


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Dec 06, 2014
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[OctaFX_Farid]

Chile Consumer Price Index (Inflation) (MoM): 0% (November) vs previous 1%


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Dec 06, 2014
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[OctaFX_Farid]

Should Greece get the final bailout trance? Tip Tv


FXStreet (Barcelona) - The Tip Tv Team and Tom Elliot, International Investment Strategist at deVere Group, discuss about the Eurogroups meeting involving Greeces bailout problem.

Key Quotes

Eurogroup's meeting today on whether Greece should get the final tranche of its bailout package? If they demand an extension, which is likely, this could put into doubt gvt's ability to stop anti-austerity Syriza wining a February election and if they do we are back to talk of Greece leaving the euro.



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Dec 08, 2014
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[OctaFX_Farid]

Denmark Trade Balance increased to 7.1B in October from previous 5.7B


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Dec 09, 2014
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[OctaFX_Farid]

NZD/USD moves into positive territory


FXStreet (Mumbai) - The Kiwi has recovered losses to trade in green against the Greenback, tracking a decline in the US treasury yields and a rebound in the EUR and GBP.

The NZD/USD pair now trades 0.19% higher at 0.7677, after having recovered from the low of 0.7609 levels. Moreover, the US dollar is witnessing a correction against most of its G-10 peers as a bout of risk-aversion in the Asian markets pushed the US 10-y r treasury yields lower to 2.25%.

The Kiwi had also come under pressure earlier today after the electronic retail card spending in November declined 0.1% month-on-month, against the expected gain of 0.2%.

NZD/USD Technical Levels

The pair has an immediate resistance located at 0.7685, above which gains could be extended to 0.7716 (5-DMA). Meanwhile, support is seen at 0.7660 (Nov 7 low) and 0.7607.



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Dec 09, 2014
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[OctaFX_Farid]

GBP/USD steadies ahead of UK Factory numbers


FXStreet (Mumbai) - The cables trades with moderate gains during the European morning, as traders eye UK manufacturing and industrial activity data to be released shortly.

Currently, the GBP/USD pair trades at 1.5672 levels, 0.12% higher from the previous session’s close of 1.5653. The pair continues to trade cautiously as market awaits fresh industrial and manufacturing output data from the UK, which may show deceleration in the factory growth in October.

The UK Office for National Statistics is expected to report industrial output rose 0.2% in October following a 0.6% increase in September. Manufacturing output is estimated to have fallen to growth of 0.2% in October from 0.4% measured a month before.

GBP/USD Levels to consider

The pair has an immediate resistance at 1.5697 (Dec 5 High) levels, above which gains could be extended to 1.5719 (Dec 3 High) levels. On the flip side, support is seen at 1.5651 (10-day SMA), below which it could extend losses to 1.5618 (50-day SMA) levels.




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Dec 09, 2014
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[OctaFX_Farid]

LME Inventory Update


FXStreet (Mumbai) - The daily warehouse stocks data released by the London Metal Exchange (LME) today showed a rise in the inventory levels of Copper and Zinc. Meanwhile, the inventory levels of Nickel, Aluminium and Lead declined.

Copper stocks rose by 950 tonnes today, while Aluminium inventory and Lead inventory decreased by 10100 tonnes and 2200 tonnes respectively. Nickel stocks declined by 162 tonnes, while that of Zinc increased 3200 tonnes.




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Dec 09, 2014
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[OctaFX_Farid]

GBP/JPY trims losses


FXStreet (Córdoba) - The pound is trading slightly lower against the yen on Wednesday, falling for the second day in a row, but far from the lows.

GBP/JPY bottomed earlier at 186.14 but then bounced to the upside and recently reached 187.30. Currently trades at 187.05/10, 0.15% below todays opening price.

Trade balance data from the United Kingdom had no impact on the pound. The deficit fell in October to the lowest level in seven months, at £2bn, below the £2.8bn in September.

GBP/JPY steady

Price action across the board remains mostly calm following sharp movements yesterday, when GBP/JPY dropped from 189.20 to 185.16; today the price range so far has been of 160 pips.




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Dec 10, 2014
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[OctaFX_Farid]

EUR/NOK climbs to fresh 5-year high


FXStreet (Córdoba) - EUR/NOK has pushed to fresh 5-year highs Wednesday despite in line with expectations Norwegian inflation data, as oil prices remain as the main driver for the krone.

Norges Bank decision tomorrow

Norway's CPI came exactly in line with expectations of +1.9% the headline and +2.4% the core ahead of the Norges Bank decision tomorrow (target 2.5%). The central bank is expected to leave the policy rate unchanged at 1.5% despite recent oil prices slump.

However, according to Jane Foley, analyst at Rabobank, commented that in view of the risks to growth the chances that the Norges Bank will set the scene for further rate cuts has grown. “The continuation of sluggish growth in the Eurozone combined, the increased pressure on the oil price combined with the moderation in core inflation suggests scope for a reduction in the 1.5% policy rate potentially as soon as the March Norges Bank meeting”, said the analyst.

EUR/NOK climbed to a 5-year high of 8.9354 and it is currently trading around 8.9000, recording a 0.95% gain on the day.




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Dec 10, 2014
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[OctaFX_Farid]

EUR trading flat – Scotiabank


FXStreet (Barcelona) - Camilla Sutton CFA, CMT, Chief FX Strategist at Scotiabank, notes that EUR is flat with no fundamental data and ignoring ECB’s Hansson’s comments that they will turn to corporate bonds before sovereign.

Key Quotes

“EUR is flat to yesterday’s close, after trading in a tight 37‐point range during the Asian and European sessions. Yesterday’s profit taking was important and has forced some of the move vulnerable shorts out of the market; however the failure to close above last Friday’s open of 1.2379 or high of 1.2393 puts important emphasis on today’s close. Should EUR fail again to close above these levels it would be technically bearish; should it break above it would open up a test to 1.2470.”

“There was no data released today. The ECB’s Hansson suggested that corporate bond buying should be pursued before sovereigns and that in principle the ECB could look to equities; but that it is too early to judge if the central bank will commit to action in January.”

“EURUSD short‐term technicals: mixed—warning of a short‐period of stability. Support lies at the recent low of 1.2247, a break below here would open up a test to 1.2200; while resistance comes in at yesterday’s high of 1.2448. A close above 1.2379 today would open up a nearterm test to yesterday’s high followed by 1.2500.”




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Dec 10, 2014
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[OctaFX_Farid]

Counting on the balance sheet – BNP


FXStreet (Barcelona) - Analysts at BNP Paribas note that the ECB has signaled that it intends to bring its balance sheet back to the level prevailing in early 2012.

Key Quotes:

“The balance sheet expansion is an instrument that has been used by central banks to overcome the Zero Lower Bound of policy rates and to signal an easier monetary policy stance. It also wants to see inflation back to target “without delay” and “as fast as possible”, to quote President Draghi, The rise in the base money will first depend on the success of the upcoming targeted long-term refinancing operations (TLTROs)”.

“We expect the next operation, to be conducted on December the 11th, to encounter strong demand, at the upper range of estimates. However, it is likely that the measures adopted so far (TLTROs, ABS and Covered Bond purchase programs), will not be enough to fully achieve the ECB’s balance sheet objective”.

“Under these circumstances the ECB would be forced to enlarge the list of assets it currently purchases”.





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Dec 10, 2014
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[OctaFX_Farid]

AUD/JPY longs squeezed out in last push for September highs



FXStreet (Guatemala) - AUD/JPY is trading at 98.50, down -0.74% on the day, having posted a daily high at 99.49 and low at 98.36.

AUD/JPY has extended losses on a continuation of the downtrend and unwinding in the carry, pushing the hourly RSI towards oversold territory. Risk sentiment is fading and concerns for global growth risks are mounting with investors looking to the safe havens, such as the yen, and longs are being squeezed out of positions as the Yen continues to strengthen.

We have moved down to September highs and rapidly where there may be strong support. However a break of these levels opens up the downside wide open to the psychological 98.00 level.

Fundamentally, the FOMC may play a big roll next week in market developments and should the dollar continue to unwind then this may balance out the scales of the cross to some extent with a buoyed Aussie dollar as a result. However, the snap election results are up this weekend ad this prove unfavourable to Abe and support further supply in USD/JPY.





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Dec 10, 2014
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[OctaFX_Farid]

CBOE VIX blasts higher



FXStreet (Mumbai) - The Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) Volatility Index (VIX) has shot up, after breaking out of a month long trading range due to the risk aversion in the financial markets.

The CBOE VIX currently trades 9.20% higher at 16.26 levels, compared to the previous session’s close of 14.89 levels. The index had opened higher yesterday, although late recovery in the stock markets made sure the volatility gauge finished lower.

However, the index may continue to inch higher today as renewed sell-off in Crude prices may push stock prices lower in the US and Europe.

CBOE VIX Technical Levels

The index has been trading largely in a range of 16.28 to 11.53 for over a month now. A breach of 16.28 on closing basis, shall open doors for 18.43 and 20.00 levels. Meanwhile, a break below 11.53 may push the index down to immediate support at 11.24.





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Dec 10, 2014
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[OctaFX_Farid]

USD/CHF hits fresh lows at 0.9670



FXStreet (Córdoba) - USD/CHF broke below 0.9690 and dropped to 0.9670 reaching a fresh daily low. The pair was holding below 0.9690 with bearish momentum.

USD/CHF breaks range

The pair traded during most of the day in a range with support at 0.9690 and resistance at 0.9720/25. After testing once again the upper limit, turned to the downside and broke the support, as EUR/USD rose to fresh highs above 1.2400.

Despite the recent movements, today’s price range still remained inside yesterday’s range. USD/CHF was headed toward the third daily decline in a row.





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Dec 10, 2014
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[OctaFX_Farid]

Dollar consolidates as Oil slide continues BBH



FXStreet (Barcelona) - The Brown Brothers Harriman Team, notes that the decline in oil prices has not only proven to be a setback for the dollar, but spurred losses in equities and pushed down bond yields as well.

Key Quotes

Markets are reacting to the cuts in demand forecasts by OPEC and IEA. Oil prices have fallen about 10% this week. Brent finished last week near $69.10 and now is quoted around $63.25. WTI finished last week just below $66 and now is just above $59. This was driven by slowing of the Chinese economy coupled with increased output in the US (which reached a new high of 9.12 mln barrels a day in the week of December 5), and larger OPEC discounts.

This precipitous decline in oil prices hits the global economy as deflationary forces still threaten large parts of the world economy. It has knocked down US 10-year yields. After the constructive employment report, US 10-year yields finished last week near 2.30%. Today they touched 2.11%. And this despite continued robust data (see yesterday's 0.7% rise in headline retail sales) and speculation that next week's FOMC statement will delete or dilute the reference to "considerable period" as the next step towards preparing investors for a rate hike next year.

The decline in oil prices not only pushed down bond yields, but spurred sharp losses in the equity markets and a setback in the US dollar. The yen is the strongest currency this week, recovering a little more than 2.5%. The New Zealand dollar is in second place, helped by a less dovish central bank. The euro is about 1.2% higher on the week after recording new cyclical lows on Monday. Sterling rose about 0.75% this week.




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Dec 12, 2014
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[OctaFX_Farid]

GBP/USD erases intraday losses



FXStreet (Córdoba) - GBP/USD shrugged off disappointing UK construction data and managed to erase intraday losses to trade nearly flat into the North American opening.

GBP/USD bottomed out at 1.5693 following much worse than expected UK construction output data (-2.2% vs +0.8%) but it climbed back toward 1.5720 to trade effectively unchanged on the day.

Datawise, the US data includes producer prices data and the Reuters/Michigan Consumer sentiment index but non first-tier data, so investors will probably refrain from taking big positions ahead of the weekend.

GBP/USD technical levels

As for technical levels, immediate resistances are seen at 1.5735 (daily high) and 1.5755 (Dec 11 high) while supports could be found at 1.5693 (daily low) and 1.5677 (10-day SMA).





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Dec 12, 2014
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[OctaFX_Farid]

USD/CAD may test 1.1690 level in the near‐term – Scotiabank



FXStreet (Barcelona) - Camilla Sutton CFA, CMT, Chief FX Strategist at Scotiabank, anticipates USD/CAD to test 1.1690 in the near term, supported by near and medium term technicals which warn of an ongoing upside pressure.

Key Quotes

“CAD has reached fresh 5.5 year lows, having lost a further 0.5% in the Asian and European sessions. The drop has been on the back of a further fall in oil prices, yesterday’s steady tone from Governor Poloz, and bearish CAD technicals; ignoring the better than expected data from China. The only domestic data released today is Teranet housing prices; leaving CAD trading off of oil and broader developments.”

“Near and medium term technical studies warn of ongoing upside pressure. The upward trend is strong and with the RSI at just 67, there is still significant upside room before reaching overbought levels. We are biased to be long USDCAD. For short‐term traders we would look for a near term test of 1.1690 and would place a stop at 1.1495.”




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Dec 12, 2014
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[OctaFX_Farid]

Oil fell yesterday after IEA cut global demand forecast – Malcolm Graham-Wood



FXStreet (Barcelona) - Independent Analyst, Malcolm Graham-Wood notes that yesterday it was IEA which fuelled further downward pressure on oil price after it cut the global demand forecasts for the 4th time in past 5 months.

Key Quotes

“Yesterday it was the turn of the IEA to keep the downward pressure on the oil price by cutting its global demand forecast for the 4th time in five months. Their number is now for a rise of 900/- b/d, down 230/- from their previous forecast/guess. They now, like Opec have a call on the cartel of 28.9m b/d which may be optimistic.”

“Whilst I still believe that there is no obvious floor for the oil price at least in the short term, it will be interesting to see when forecasters decide that prices down here will stimulate demand.”



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Dec 12, 2014
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