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GBP/USD tests 1.6250 after US data; but rejected

FXStreet (San Francisco) - The Sterling is advancing versus the US dollar as the pound is joining the short term USD weakness following disappointing economic data in the United States. The pair, however, wasn't able to hold levels and now it is trading back to 1.6220.

The US manufacturing PMI was reported down to 57.5 in September; the components showed that strong output and new orders growth were maintained; fastest increase in payrolls since 2012. ISM manufacturing was down to 56.6; employment component down to 54.6.

Currently, GBP/USD is trading at 1.6220, up 0.03% on the day, having posted a daily high at 1.6253 and low at 1.6162. The hourly FXStreet OB/OS Index is showing neutral conditions, alongside the FXStreet Trend Index which is slightly bullish.

GBP/USD levels

If the pair extends rejection, it will face supports at 1.6200, 1.6180 and 1.6160. On upside, resistances are at 1.6250, 1.6270 and 1.6285.

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Oct 01, 2014

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[OctaFX_Farid]

ECB keeps rates unchanged after August cut

FXStreet (Córdoba) - The Governing Council of the European Central Bank decided that the interest rate on the main refinancing operations and the rates on the marginal lending facility and the deposit facility will remain unchanged at 0.05%, 0.30% and -0.20% respectively.

The ECB cut all three rates by 10 bps last month and announced an asset buying program - which details will be unveiled next week - aimed to provide liquidity to the real economy to fight low inflation and support growth.

Attention now turns to ECB President, Mario Draghi, who will comment on the considerations underlying these decisions at a press conference starting at 12:30 GMT.

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Oct 02, 2014

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[OctaFX_Farid]

EUR/JPY rises slightly after ECB, Draghi eyed

FXStreet (Córdoba) - EUR/JPY edged a few pips higher but remained within its daily range after the European Central Bank decided to keep rates unchanged as widely expected after cutting all three rates last month.

The ECB left its benchmark rate unchanged at 0.05% and the deposit rate at -0.2% in today’s meeting. EUR/JPY reached a knee-jerk high of 137.51 but lacked momentum as attention now turns to ECB President, Mario Draghi, who will speak in a conference at 12:30 GMT.

At time of writing, EUR/JPY is trading at the 137.45 zone, virtually unchanged on the day, having recovered from a 3-week low of 136.94 scored earlier on the day.

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Oct 02, 2014

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[OctaFX_Farid]

ECB's Draghi gives details of ABS and covered bond purchase programsd

FXStreet (Łódź) - At the press conference following ECB's announcement that it will remain on hold in October ECB president Mario Draghi says that the details of the ABS and covered bond purchases have been discussed at the meeting.

• The programs will last at least 2 years.

• Purchases of covered bonds will start in mid-October.

• ABS will be bought from Q4 2014.

• Purchases are expected to have a sizable impact on the balance sheet.

• They will generate positive spillovers to other markets.

• They will reinforce fact of significant and increasing differences in the monetary policy cycle between major advanced economies.

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Oct 02, 2014

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[OctaFX_Farid]

EUR/GBP advances as Draghi speaks

FXStreet (Córdoba) - EUR/GBP pushed to fresh daily highs as Draghi speaks in a press conference after the ECB decided to keep rates unchanged, as expected.

Draghi sounded dovish as expected, reiterating risks remain to the downside and low inflation is expected to persist. He also said the bank is ready to use further unconventional measures if inflation remains too low for too long. ECB President also said further details of the program will be unveiled in a press release at 13:30 GMT (3:30 PM).

Despite the dovish stance, EUR/GBP managed to advance a few pips and hit a 1-week high of 0.7836. At time of writing, the pair is trading at 0.7830, 0.43% above its opening price.

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Oct 02, 2014

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[OctaFX_Farid]

EUR/USD gained 1.2670 on Draghi

FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The shared currency is keeping the composure as Draghi’s Q&A session is playing out on Thursday, with the EUR/USD wobbling around 1.2660/70.

EUR/USD looking for catalysts

Spot is digesting pretty well Draghi’s words today, with further details on the ABS purchase programme by the ECB will be published at 1530 CET. The ECB will buy ABS from the last quarter of 2014 and will last 2 years. Draghi also stressed that the bank remains ready to act if the situation in the region deteriorates further. Regarding consumer prices, Draghi expects the CPI to climb closer to the bank’s target in the upcoming years

EUR/USD key levels

The pair is now advancing 0.36% at 1.2668 and a breakout of 1.2676 (high Oct.2) would aim for 1.2715 (high Sep.29) and then 1.2732 (10-d MA). On the downside, the immediate support aligns at 1.2571 (2014 low Sep.30) ahead of 1.2561 (low sep.6 2012) and finally 1.2502 (76.4% of 1.2042-1.3995).

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Oct 02, 2014

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[OctaFX_Farid]

EUR/JPY retakes 137.50

FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The upbeat momentum in the euro is helping EUR/JPY to extend its bounce off the boundaries of 137.00 the figure posted during the European morning.

EUR/JPY in 3-week lows

Spot seems to have found quite decent support around the 137.00 handle, levels last seen in early September, deflating from recent multi month peaks above 141.00 against a backdrop of mounting weakness around the EUR. The rebound in the cross is now running out of steam in the mid-137.00s, closely watching the events from the ECB. It is worth noting that the ECB will start its purchases of ABS and covered bonds in the last quarter of 2014 and will last for two years. “Near term rallies need to regain the 200 day ma at 139.62 in order to reassert upside pressure at this point and trigger a move to 141.88 and 143.55 (61.8% and 78.6% retracement of the move seen this year)”, noted Karen Jones, Head of FICC Technical Analysis at Commerzbank.

EUR/JPY levels to watch

The cross is now losing 0.01% at 137.44 with the immediate support at 136.99 (high Sep.8) ahead of 136.65 (low Sep.9). On the flip side, a breakout of 137.72 (high Oct.2) would expose 138.00 (psychological level).

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Oct 02, 2014

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[OctaFX_Farid]

AUD/USD fighting at the 0.8800 area

FXStreet (San Francisco) - The 0.8815 rejection in the AUD/USD that paused the Aussie's recovery from 0.8660, found support at 0.8765 where the pair bounced to test back at 0.8800. However, the movement seems not enough enough to look for further highs and now it is pricing at 0.8780.

Currently, AUD/USD is trading at 0.8783, up 0.56% on the day, having posted a daily high at 0.8818 and low at 0.8723. The FXStreet OB/OS Index is reflecting neutral hourly conditions, while the FXStreet Trend Index is slightly bearish.

AUD/USD levels

If the pair extends advance, it will fce next resistances at 0.8815, 0.8825 and 0.8850. On the downside, supports are at 0.8765, 0.8700 and 0.8660.

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Oct 02, 2014

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[OctaFX_Farid]

AUD/USD fighting at the 0.8800 area

FXStreet (San Francisco) - The 0.8815 rejection in the AUD/USD that paused the Aussie's recovery from 0.8660, found support at 0.8765 where the pair bounced to test back at 0.8800. However, the movement seems not enough enough to look for further highs and now it is pricing at 0.8780.

Currently, AUD/USD is trading at 0.8783, up 0.56% on the day, having posted a daily high at 0.8818 and low at 0.8723. The FXStreet OB/OS Index is reflecting neutral hourly conditions, while the FXStreet Trend Index is slightly bearish.

AUD/USD levels

If the pair extends advance, it will fce next resistances at 0.8815, 0.8825 and 0.8850. On the downside, supports are at 0.8765, 0.8700 and 0.8660.

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Oct 02, 2014

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[OctaFX_Farid]

GBP/USD falls further, nears 1.6100

FXStreet (Córdoba) - GBP/USD came under renewed pressure at the beginning of the American session once investors attention left the European Central Bank.

Following a short-lived recovery that was capped by the 1.6175 zone, GBP/USD resumed the fall and broke below the 1.6130/25 zone, sliding to its lowest level since September 10 at 1.6111. At time of writing, GBP/USD is trading at 1.6125, recording a 0.36% loss Thursday and on track to post its seventh daily decline in a row.

GBP/USD technical outlook

“In the 4 hours chart the technical picture maintains a clear bearish tone, with 20 SMA below the 1.6235 Fibonacci resistance, tops in case of further gains”, said Valeria Bednarik, chief analyst at FXStreet. “A break below 1.6120 will increase the risk of a steady fall with immediate target at 1.6085”.

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Oct 02, 2014

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[OctaFX_Farid]

EUR/USD drops to lowest level in 2 years - FXStreet

FXStreet (Łódź) - FXStreet Chief Analyst Valeria Bednarik observes that following the release of the better-than-expected US nonfarm payrolls report EUR/USD dropped as low as 1.2517, a level last seen in September 2012.

Key quotes

"US NFP data surprised to the upside, with 248K new jobs added in September, unemployment rate down to 5.9%, lowest since 2008, and an upward revision from previous month reading to 180K."

"The bearish momentum seems to be just picking up, despite the 1 hour chart showing indicators still heading south in extreme oversold levels."

"Pullbacks should now found sellers in the 1.2570 former year low, with a break below 1.2500 favoring a downward continuation towards 1.2440/60 price zone in the short term, yet eyeing next strong static support at 1.2370 price zone."

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Oct 03, 2014

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[OctaFX_Farid]

Ukraine to continue talks with Russia on gas deal next week

FXStreet (Łódź) - Ukrainian Energy Minister Yuri Prodan signaled on Friday that Ukraine could resume negotiations on the natural gas agreement with Russia at the end of next week.

Talks broke off last Friday, as the parties couldn't reach an agreement on the question of Ukraine's gas debt, which Russia's Gazprom claims amounts to 5.3 billion dollars. The company discontinued gas deliveries to Ukraine in June this year.

Both countries as well as the EU will suggest what would be the best solution they see to the situation, Yuri Prodan told reporters. He was unsure however whether Moscow would agree to deliver gas if Kiev made a prepayment of about 2 billion dollars.

Russian markets were boosted by the news.

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Oct 03, 2014

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[OctaFX_Farid]

GBP/USD into questionable territory

FXStreet (Barcelona) - GBP/USD is trading at 1.5959, down -1.14% on the day, having posted a daily high at 1.6161 and low at 1.5952.

GBP/USD is now testing the mid point of the handle and November 2014 territory and this area may be regarded as oversold technically and fundamentally. However, from here, there is room towards 1.5920 perhaps and that could act as critical support ahead of the 1.5890/70 level when looking over the last two years. The greenback has been fuelled of course with the impressive Non farm payrolls data on a knee jerk, but if one were to look closer, wages have slipped back and that may prevent further advances in the greenback as we move in towards the close for the week.

GBP/USD weighed upon Central Bank outlook

Meanwhile, the market is anticipating that the next policy moves from both the Fed and the BoE will be rate hikes, as Jane Foley, Senior Currency Strategist at Rabobank noted and explained, “Surveys are suggesting that a BoE hike is expected in Q1 2015, some months ahead of a Fed hike around the middle of the year. On both counts we are more dovish than the market consensus”.

BP/USD noteworthy levels

Current price is 1.5960, with resistance ahead at 1.6004 (Weekly Classic S3), 1.6032 (Daily Classic S2), 1.6088 (Daily Classic S1), 1.6096 (Hourly 20 EMA) and 1.6105. Next support to the downside can be found at 1.5950 (Daily Classic S3), 1.5920, 1.5907 and longer-term lows are 1.4868 (3 Year Low) and 1.4334 (5 Year Low).

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Oct 03, 2014

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[OctaFX_Farid]

EUR/USD to fall further in the light of strong NFP - UBS

FXStreet (Córdoba) - Analysts at UBS expect the positive momentum for the USD to continue - in particular against the euro after strong US nonfarm payrolls.

Key Quotes

“The speed and the size of the current US dollar rally is very unusual. The fundamental investors and the momentum traders continue to walk hand in hand on the road to a stronger US dollar”.

“Non-farm payrolls were so strong on all aspects, that the Fed is urged to explain the rate hike ambitions in the light of this new information”.

“The ECB on Thursday confirmed its easing bias. We therefore expect the positive momentum for the USD to continue - in particular against the euro”.

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Oct 03, 2014

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[OctaFX_Farid]

EUR/JPY in no mans land between critical levels

FXStreet (Guatemala) - EUR/JPY is trading at 137.31, down -0.02% on the day, having posted a daily high at 137.91 and low at 137.11.

EUR/JPY stabilised at the 137.00/78.6% retracement level yesterday and has found territory again confirmed back onto the handle with a good rally over the course of the past 24 hours. The pair today was offered however with a market flooding away from the single currency with a mixture of poor data releases for the EZ and in a continuation of a strong Yen overnight. We are in no mans land here until a break of 138 to the upside and any rallies that could regain the 200 day ma at 139.62 would be required in order to reassert upside pressure at this point and trigger a move to 141.88 and 143.55 (61.8% and 78.6% retracement of the move seen this year), as explained by Karen Jones, chief analyst at Commerzbank. “Below 135.73 would trigger losses towards the 133.51/23.6% retracement of the move up from 2012”.

EUR/JPY hourly levels

With spot trading at 137.32, we can see next resistance ahead at 137.47(Hourly 20 EMA) and 137.75 (Yesterday's High). Support below can be found at 137.22 (Weekly Classic S2), 137.11 (Daily Low), 136.90 (Daily Classic S1), 136.87 (Yesterday's Low) and 136.44 (Daily Classic S2).

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Oct 03, 2014

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[OctaFX_Farid]

EUR/USD bouncing off 1.2500

FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The extreme weakness in the single currency seems to have found support in the vicinity of 1.2500 the figure on Friday, with EUR/USD now managing to clinch to 1.2510/15.

EUR/USD softer on data

The bearish trend in the pair has intensified today following the very positive US docket, with September’s Payrolls climbing to 248K and the ISM Non manufacturing surpassing expectations at 58.6, albeit a tad lower that August’s 59.6. There are no more releases in the US economy or Euroland, as markets slowly surrender to the post-NFP lull ahead of the weekend. Chief FX Straregist Camilla Sutton at Scotiabank said technicals remain bearish, adding, “most technical studies remain in bearish territory and warn of further downside risk. A close today below 1.2620 would warn of further near term downside, with some support at the recent 1.2571 low, but stronger support at 1.2500; resistance comes in at the recent high of 1.2699, followed by 1.2720”.

EUR/USD levels to watch

At the moment the pair is losing 1.20% at 1.2515 with the next support at 1.2502 (76.4% of 1.2042-1.3995) followed by 1.2493 (low Aug.31) and then 1.2487 (low Aug.30). On the upside, a break above 1.2676 (high Oct.3) would target 1.2699 (high Oct.2) en route to 1.2703 (10-d MA).

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Oct 03, 2014

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[OctaFX_Farid]

USD/JPY: BoJ could play its part in supporting the upward trend - Commerzbank

FXStreet (Córdoba) - According to Thu Lan Nguyen, analyst at Commerzbank in the coming week, the Bank of Japan could play its part in supporting the upward trend in USD/JPY by fuelling speculation about further expansionary measures.

Key Quotes

“The upward trend in USD/JPY may also gain support from the Japanese side in the coming

week though, as the monetary policy meeting of the Bank of Japan (BoJ) ends on Tuesday and, given the disappointing inflation trend so far, speculation about further expansionary measures from the central bank at the end of this month has increased (BoJ meeting on 31 October)”.

“We believe that the BoJ will not reach its inflation target and therefore will ultimately decide in favour of further large-scale asset purchases. That said, we do not expect such a step until early next year as the BoJ will probably allow itself time to be able to better estimate the inflation trend.”

“Nonetheless, the BoJ’s rhetoric will change. While it has been quite optimistic about the outlook for the economy and inflation so far, it is likely to be more cautious on inflation now given the downside risks. This should fuel speculation about further expansionary measures and weigh on the JPY”.

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Oct 03, 2014

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[OctaFX_Farid]

Bitcoin bulls lack strength

FXStreet (Mumbai) - The pullback in Bitcoin prices after the weekend’s slump has been lackluster so far, as the prices repeatedly fail to penetrate through 340-345 levels.

Bitcoin has come under pressure, off-late on threats that it may be brought under the regulatory framework. Despite the skepticism over the usefulness of Bitcoin, Silicon Valley investors have poured money into the Bitcoin wallet sector. Blockchain, the most popular Bitcoin wallet service, announced Tuesday that it has raised $30.5 million in a Series A round, marking one of the largest funding rounds of any Bitcoin startup to date.

Bitcoin technical levels

Bitcoin has a resistance of 343 and 350 while the support is located at 299 and 285.

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Oct 08, 2014

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[OctaFX_Farid]

GBP/USD in fresh highs post-BoE

FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The pound keeps the good mood on Thursday, taking GBP/USD to levels around 1.6215/20, printing new session peaks.

GBP/USD neutral following the BoE

Spot almost bypassed today’s BOE MPC meeting, after the ‘Old Lady’ left unchanged both the asset purchase facility and the repo rate at £375 billion and 0.5%, respectively. The outcome was largely expected by market participants and well priced in in the recent GBP performance. Traders will now look to the more significant BoE minutes (due in a couple of weeks) for further clues regarding the next rate hike and the slack in the labour market, amongst another key issues in the British economy.

GBP/USD levels to watch

At the moment the pair is up 0.26% at 1.6211 and a breakout of 1.6234 (50% of 1.6525-1.5943) would target 1.6235 (21-d MA) en route to 1.6252 (high Oct.1). On the down path, the immediate support lines up at 1.6154 (10-d MA) followed by 1.6115 (Tenkan Sen) and then 1.6032 (low Oct.8).

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Oct 09, 2014

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[OctaFX_Farid]

Session Recap: USD weakness persists

FXStreet (Córdoba) - Broad-based USD weakness remains the theme of the day while global equities rise after the FOMC minutes came in more dovish than expected.

Meanwhile in Europe, the German trade surplus disappointed while the Bank of England decided to keep its monetary policy on hold.

EUR/USD rose toward 1.2800 before running out of momentum while GBP/USD regained the 1.6200 level but lacked follow-through. USD/JPY extended its correction and hit a fresh 3-week low of 107.60. AUD/USD faltered ahead of the 0.8900 level as USD/CAD consolidates right above 1.1100.

Dovish FOMC minutes added pressure on the greenback that was already in a corrective phase following a 12-week rally versus majors competitors.

During the New York session, US weekly jobless claims are expected to rise to 294K, while August wholesale inventories climb 0.3%, while several FOMC members are expected to make remarks today.

Main Headlines in Europe:

What’s the sentiment around EUR/USD today? – Commerzbank and OCBC Bank

Germany: Trade surplus narrows to €17.5B in August

US Ten-year yield near August lows

Brent Crude Oil in bears’ grip

ECB Monthly Report: ECB ready to take further measures if necessary

Bitcoin gains for the fourth consecutive day

Gold inches closer to resistance

BoE keeps policy unchanged

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Oct 09, 2014

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[OctaFX_Farid]

United States Export Price Index (YoY) down to -0.2% in September from previous 0.4%

Read more in Forex News

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Oct 10, 2014

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[OctaFX_Farid]

Canada: Unemployment rate (Sep) fell to 6.8%

FXStreet (Edinburgh) -The Canadian jobless rate has ticked lower during September, falling to 6.8% from 7% previous and forecasted. The Net Change in Employment jumped to 74.1K from August’s drop of 11K. The Participation Rate stayed put at 66%.

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Oct 10, 2014

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[OctaFX_Farid]

Canada: Unemployment rate (Sep) fell to 6.8%

FXStreet (Edinburgh) -The Canadian jobless rate has ticked lower during September, falling to 6.8% from 7% previous and forecasted. The Net Change in Employment jumped to 74.1K from August’s drop of 11K. The Participation Rate stayed put at 66%.

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Oct 10, 2014

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[OctaFX_Farid]

Canada: Unemployment rate (Sep) fell to 6.8%

FXStreet (Edinburgh) -The Canadian jobless rate has ticked lower during September, falling to 6.8% from 7% previous and forecasted. The Net Change in Employment jumped to 74.1K from August’s drop of 11K. The Participation Rate stayed put at 66%.

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Oct 10, 2014

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[OctaFX_Farid]

Ten-year yields decline in Europe and US

FXStreet (Mumbai) - The concerns of global economic slowdown triggered by the disappointing International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasts and by the shockingly weak German economic data has pushed the benchmark bond yields in the US and Europe lower.

The ten-year yield in Germany is trading one basis point lower at 0.878, after having hit a record low of 0.859 yesterday. On similar lines, the French ten-year bond yield is trading weak at 1.245, which has been acting as a strong support for the last 7 sessions. Meanwhile, the ten-year yield in the UK is down two basis points to 2.20%.

In the US, the ten-year treasury yield is trading near August lows of 2.3, after hitting a high of 2.348. Interestingly, the two-year treasury yield has gained 1.75% to trade at 0.46. The two year note yield, a barometer of short term expectations, is up indicating that markets are pricing-in an early interest rate hike after the hawkish statement of Fed official Bullard.

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Oct 10, 2014

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