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AUD/USD quiet, in a 20 pips range






FXStreet (Córdoba) - The AUD/USD climbed to 0.9347 after Wall Street opening, hitting a fresh daily high and currently trades at 0.9338, marginally higher for the day. The currency market remains calm and quiet, with low volatility ahead of the FOMC statement.


The Aussie is rising against the US dollar but is moving in a small trading range between 0.9330 and 0.9345, consolidating after losing more than 60 pips on Tuesday.


AUD/USD holds despite weak AUD


The Australian Dollar is among the worst performers on Wednesday so far but a falling Greenback is giving support to the AUD/USD. Against the Kiwi is trading at the lowest level in 4-weeks; the AUD/NZD broke below 1.0770 and tumbled to 1.0755.







June 18, 2014

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AUD/USD quiet, in a 20 pips range






FXStreet (Córdoba) - The AUD/USD climbed to 0.9347 after Wall Street opening, hitting a fresh daily high and currently trades at 0.9338, marginally higher for the day. The currency market remains calm and quiet, with low volatility ahead of the FOMC statement.


The Aussie is rising against the US dollar but is moving in a small trading range between 0.9330 and 0.9345, consolidating after losing more than 60 pips on Tuesday.


AUD/USD holds despite weak AUD


The Australian Dollar is among the worst performers on Wednesday so far but a falling Greenback is giving support to the AUD/USD. Against the Kiwi is trading at the lowest level in 4-weeks; the AUD/NZD broke below 1.0770 and tumbled to 1.0755.







June 18, 2014

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NZD/USD hit fresh highs before FOMC






FXStreet (Córdoba) - The NZD/USD rose further after Wall Street opening and climbed to 0.8688, hitting the strongest level in two days. The pair holds near the highs ahead of the FOMC statement, to be released in a few minutes.


The Kiwi is among the best performers on Wednesday and is rising across the board.


NZD/USD approaches 0.8700


During the last days the pair has been trading in a range below 0.8700. The mentioned level is an important resistance that capped the rally from 0.8410. If it breaks above 0.8700 it would be trading at 6-week highs.






June 18, 2014

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Not much to get worried about in UK retail sales data - TD Securities





FXStreet (Łódź) - Tim Davis, Vice President and Global Strategist at TD Securities, comments on the UK retail sales data released earlier on Thursday, saying that looking through the details there's not much to get worried about.


Key quotes


"Fuel and especially food were the big downsides while most other components rose on the month. The food side is some unwind from the Easter adjustments still, and whatever World Cup effect there was in May (with football shirts selling well) will be even better in June, especially into some of the higher value items like TVs."


"There was also evidence of decent discounting from retailers on the month which overall would continue to point to decent purchasing power from consumers."






June 19, 2014

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Not much to get worried about in UK retail sales data - TD Securities





FXStreet (Łódź) - Tim Davis, Vice President and Global Strategist at TD Securities, comments on the UK retail sales data released earlier on Thursday, saying that looking through the details there's not much to get worried about.


Key quotes


"Fuel and especially food were the big downsides while most other components rose on the month. The food side is some unwind from the Easter adjustments still, and whatever World Cup effect there was in May (with football shirts selling well) will be even better in June, especially into some of the higher value items like TVs."


"There was also evidence of decent discounting from retailers on the month which overall would continue to point to decent purchasing power from consumers."






June 19, 2014

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EUR/GBP points to consolidation – Westpac





FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The cross would now attempt to consolidate the recent decline, before embarking in the next trip lower, commented analysts at Westpac.


Key Quotes


“The BoE’s minutes flagged the risk that growth may not slow as much as the BoE expects but lacked the hawkish smoking gun markets were looking for”.


“EUR/GBP has come a long way now and positioning is arguably heavily short”.


“EUR/GBP probably needs to consolidate recent losses for a while yet before the next down leg commences”.






June 19, 2014

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EU's Rehn: EU Member States should respect fiscal pact





FXStreet (Łódź) - European Commissioner for Economic and Monetary Affairs Olli Rehn assured on Thursday that the EU fiscal pact is sufficiently flexible and that it is important for EU Member States to respect it.


He suggested that at the upcoming Eurogroup meeting in Louxembourg, which will be his last as EU Commissioner, Finance Ministers would most probably focus on the fairness of EU fiscal rules.


Rehn also said that France is expected to meet the EU deficit objective next year. Moreover, he added that Greece should meet bailout requirements with delays but that it would return to the correct fiscal path.







June 19, 2014

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EUR/USD in ranges above 1.3600





FXStreet (Córdoba) - The EUR/USD has remained steady in the last hours, moving sideways above 1.3600. The pair peaked during the European session at 1.3642 and then pulled back to 1.3614.


During the last six hours it has been moving in a range between 1.3614 and 1.3640, consolidating above 1.3600, headed toward the second gain in a row and to the highest daily close since June 6.


EUR/USD gains momentum, but still far from 1.40


The FOMC statement released yesterday weakened the US dollar, favoring the downside in the EUR/USD. But despite rising more than 70 pips in the last two days still remains far from May highs.


According to the Global Markets Research Team at the Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ the recent package of monetary easing measures announced by the ECB has helped to reduce the scale of euro overvaluation, pushing the EUR/USD to the downside from near 1.4000.


“The euro is now more modestly overvalued against the US dollar by around 5%. It supports our view that the euro will likely continue to gradually weaken in the year ahead as loosening ECB policy helps to further ease euro overvaluation”, the Team affirmed.







June 19, 2014

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Slight upside risk to Canada's headline CPI - TD Securities





FXStreet (Łódź) - Tim Davis, Vice President and Global Strategist at TD Securities, expects the Canadian all-items CPI for May to increase by 0.2% m/m in May, due in large part to seasonal factors, while the core index is forecast to increase by 0.3% m/m.


Key quotes


"On a year-ago basis headline inflation should remain unchanged at 2.0% while core should nudge higher to 1.5%."


"There is a slight upside risk to headline inflation and if our forecast is realized, both headline and core inflation in Q2 will run ahead of what the Bank of Canada had forecast in the April MPR."








June 20, 2014

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EUR/USD retraces half of weekly gains





FXStreet (Córdoba) - The EUR/USD finally failed to sustain gains and dipped back below the 1.3600 mark at the beginning of the American session.


The EUR/USD erased not only its daily advance but alseo yesterday’s rise, sliding all the way back to the 1.3575 area amid some profit taking flows ahead of the weekend and crosses (EUR/CAD & EUR/GBP)weighing. At time of writing, the EUR/USD is trading at 1.3580, down 0.18% on the day, although still headed for a weekly gain of 0.29%.


The US dollar came under pressure Wednesday after a more dovish than expected Fed stance fueled expectations it will take a while before the bank starts hiking rates.


EUR/USD technical levels


In terms of technical levels, the EUR/USD could find next supports at 1.3565 (10-day SMA), 1.3540 (Jun 18 low) and 1.3500 (psychological level). On the other hand, resistances are seen at 1.3642 (Jun 19 high), 1.3663 (200-day SMA) and 1.3700 (psychological level).








June 20, 2014

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Pound remains the strongest and price action confirms it - FXStreet





FXStreet (Łódź) - FXStreet Chief Analyst Valeria Bednarik points out that the GBP is still the strongest among majors and price action confirms it.


Key quotes


"Some mild weak numbers were so far not enough to affect the strength of the currency, and it will take more than a month of disappointing readings to take it down."


"In the meantime, market will continue pricing in a rate hike by the ends of this year, and positive macro data will only fuel the rally."


"For this week, the UK will offer inflation hearings and its financial stability report, but the key event will be GDP readings on Friday: a strong final number for the quarter, currently at 0.8% should continue to support the bullish trend in the midterm."








June 20, 2014

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EUR/NOK to fall below 8.00 this year - UBS





FXStreet (Córdoba) - The UBS analyst team commented that they stick to their view EUR/NOK will fall below 8.00 later this year even after the Norges Bank postponed its forecast for the first rate rise to Q3 2016.


Key Quotes


“The Norges Bank surprised by postponing their forecast for their first rate hike to Q3 2016 (previously summer 2015)”.


“This was based on two factors: a lower outlook for interest rates in the euro, amongst others, and weaker expected oil investments. Given the uncertainty surrounding the latter, this move strikes us as overdone”.


“EUR/NOK jumped to 8.30, but unless we see confirmation for fundamentally lower growth potential, we stick to our view of EUR/NOK falling below 8.00 later this year”.."








June 20, 2014

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GBP consolidating recent gains - FXStreet





FXStreet (Łódź) - FXStreet Chief Analyst Valeria Bednarik points out that despite having shown little follow through the GBP maintains its strength, trading above the 1.7000 figure against the greenback, consolidating its recent gains.


Key quotes


"Trading in a tight 60 pips range for second day in a row, the 4 hours chart shows that while price holds above a bullish 20 SMA, indicators turned lower and approach their midlines, diverging from price action."


"Mentioned SMA offers short term support around 1.7010 now, yet a downward acceleration through 1.7000 is required to confirm a bearish movement that can extend down to 1.6950 strong static support."


"The upside is favored yet messy, with a clear break above 1.7060 needed to confirm a bullish leg towards 1.7100 for today."








June 23, 2014

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USD/JPY steady after US Markit PMI



FXStreet (Córdoba) - The USD/JPY entered a consolidation phase after sliding throughout the Asian session, erasing Friday’s gains, with a better-than-expected US Markit PMI reading having virtually no impact on the dollar.


The USD/JPY fell to a low of 101.80 as the dollar remains on the back foot following a FOMC meeting last week, which offered little indication the Fed will hike rates anytime soon. However, the pair managed to stabilize and has spent the last hours trading within a narrow range below 102.00. USD/JPY was last down 0.20% at 101.85.


USD/JPY technical outlook


“The USD/JPY moves back and forth around 102.00, presenting a bearish tone in the short term, as price develops below moving averages and indicators stand in negative territory, with momentum presenting a bearish slope”, said Valeria Bednarik, chief analyst at FXStreet. “In the 4 hours chart technical readings continue hovering around their midlines. Immediate support stands around 101.65, and a break below it is required to confirm a downward continuation towards 101.20/30 price zone”.


In terms of technical levels, Bednarik locates next supports at 101.65, 101.20 and 100.70. On the flip side, resistances are seen at 102.00, 102.35 and 102.80.







June 23, 2014

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Fed's Plosser sees a broad-based recovery in the US



FXStreet (Łódź) - Fed's Plosser sees a broad-based recovery in the US Philadelphia Fed president Charles Plosser said on Tuesday that US job creation and growth could exceed expectations this year, bringing the first rate hike closer.


Plosser saw US GDP exceeding 2.4% in 2014, and then falling slightly in 2015. Unemployment is expected to drop to 5.8% by the end of this year and to 5.6% by the end of the next.


The Fed policymaker added that inflation seems to be firming. "The current data suggest economic strength is fairly broad-based," he stressed.








June 24, 2014

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GBP/USD stabilizes after pullback





FXStreet (Córdoba) - The GBP/USD is taking a breather just above daily lows, after BoE Governor dovish comments sent the pair to 6-day lows.


Speaking before the Treasury Select Committee Governor Mark Carney repeatedly said the exact timing of the first rate move would be "data driven". Carney also said the timing of a rate move is less relevant than the pace of rate increase. "The path of interest rates is likely to be limited and gradual," he said.


The GBP/USD broke below 1.7000 and slid toward a low of 1.6973 before stabilizing in a range. At time of writing, the Cable is trading at 1.6985, down 0.23% on the day, after the latest recovery attempt was capped by 1.7005.


GBP/USD technical levels


As for technical levels, the GBP/USD could find next supports at 1.6968 (10-day SMA), 1.6920 (Jun 18 low) and 1.6900 (psychological level). On the other hand, resistances are seen at 1.7030 (Jun 24 high), 1.7062 (2014 high Jun 19) and 1.7100 (psychological level) ahead of 1.7180 (Oct 10 2008 high).







June 24, 2014

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USD/JPY up to fresh highs after US data





FXStreet (Córdoba) - The USD/JPY rose to fresh daily highs after data showed US consumer confidence surged to its highest in more than 4 years while new home sales rose more than expected.


US consumer confidence was up 3 points to 85.2 in June, well above expectations of 83.5. Meanwhile, May housing starts grew 18.6% to 504K, above 440K forecast. On the other hand, the Richmond Fed manufacturing index dropped to 3 versus 6 expected in June, but did little to temper the USD. The USD/JPY jumped to a daily high of 102.13 from below 102.00 before the data.


At time of writing, the USD/JPY is trading at 102.05, recording a 0.15% gain on the day, having recovered from a low of 101.80 scored during the Asian session.


USD/JPY technical levels


In terms of technical levels, the pair could find immediate resistances at 102.20 (100-day SMA), 102.32 (Jun 18 high) and 102.56 (Jun 10 high). On the other hand, supports are seen at 101.73 (Jun 19 low), 101.60 (200-day SMA) and 101.42 (May 29 low).








June 24, 2014

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Session Recap: Uneventful session ahead of US data





FXStreet (Córdoba) - Majors are back to square one heading into the American opening as investors gear up for a series of US indicators, including Q1 GDP revision, durable goods orders and a preliminary gauge of services PMI.


The EUR/USD failed to sustain gains and pulled back to the 1.3605 area, while the GBP/USD managed to stabilize a tad lower around 1.6970 after dovish comments from Carney Tuesday. The USD/JPY and the AUD/USD are nearly unchanged on the day.


No first-tier data was released during the European session, leaving stocks under pressure following Wall Street sell-off yesterday. The Europe Stoxx 600 was down 0.69% while US futures point to a flat opening.


US durable goods for May (consensus 0.0%) and the third print of GDP (consensus -1.7%) are the highlights of the New York session.


Main Headlines in Europe:


Germany Gfk Consumer Confidence Survey above forecasts (8.5) in July: Actual (8.9)


US durable goods and GDP data the highlight of the day - TD Securities


Italy Retail Sales s.a. (MoM) up to 0.4% in April from previous -0.2%


What’s the sentiment about the EUR/USD today? – Commerzbank and Danske Bank


Merkel stresses Eurozone crisis not over yet


European stocks fall for a fourth session


United Kingdom CBI Distributive Trades Survey - Realized (MoM) below expectations (24) in June: Actual (4)








June 25, 2014

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