OctaFX.Com - Financial News and Analysis

[OctaFX_Farid]

Forex: GBP/USD above 1.5200 ahead of UK data

FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - The sterling is posting marginal losses on Friday, following its European counterpart as markets are slightly biased towards the risk-off mode.

Ahead in the day, house prices gauged by the Halifax index are due, followed by a speech by MPC Dale, although the most relevant event will be the US NFP due in the European midday.

GBP/USD is now losing 0.07% at 1.5222 facing the next support at 1.5026 (low Mar.20) followed by 1.5003 (61.8% of 1.4832-1.5280) and finally 1.4965 (low Mar.7).

On the flip side, a breakout of 1.5259 (high Apr.2) would expose 1.5280 (high Mar.25) and then 1.5330 (high Feb.22).

OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page

Apr 05, 2013

OctaFX.Com News Updates

[OctaFX_Farid]

Forex Flash: Adding long USD/JPY to our Asia FX portfolio - Nomura

FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - Nomura strategists Craig Chan and Wee Choon Teo have decided to add a long USD/JPY position to their Asia FX portfolio.

They note that the positive surprise from the BoJ announcement yesterday exceeded elevated market expectations and markets reacted forcefully. They comment that their G10 FX Strategy team expects JPY to weaken further against major currencies in the medium term, as domestic asset managers start to shift in the new fiscal year, and on the back of unprecedented policy aggressiveness by the BoJ. They feel that given the much lower level of nominal JGB yields, and the gradual pick up in inflation expectations, it is natural to assume a push into other asset classes by institutional managers. They write, “The sharp JPY depreciation has hit our short S$NEER recommendation given the

relative SGD appreciation. As such, we recommend adding a long USD/JPY position to our Asia FX portfolio to neutralize the effect of further JPY weakness on the S$NEER basket.”

OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page

Apr 05, 2013

OctaFX.Com News Updates

[OctaFX_Farid]

Forex Flash: USD/JPY looks neutral ahead - BTMU

FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ analysts note that USD/JPY looks neutral ahead and they see spot moving between a range of 94.00-97.00.

They begin by noting that Kuroda´s regime change was well beyond market expectations. However, they feel that other dollar buying factor may be required for further USD/JPY upside. With the especially weak NFP report this afternoon, they believe that the BoJ’s monetary easing will limit yen upside potential. They write, “Any dips for USD/JPY below the 95.00-level will likely encourage strong buying activity.”

OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page

Apr 05, 2013

OctaFX.Com News Updates

[OctaFX_Farid]

Canada: Ivey PMI surprises at 61.4 in March

FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - The March Canada PMI by Richard Ivey School of Business rose from 51.1 to 61.4, surprising investors that were only expecting a slight rise to 52.4.

OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page

Apr 05, 2013

OctaFX.Com News Updates

[OctaFX_Farid]

Forex Flash: Bunds look neutral ahead of strong resistance – RBS

FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - Bund trends remain in place with a new support gained at the 145.80 level, being the 161.8% Fibonacci projection from the February-March 2013 impulse wave. However, it faces a strong resistance at 146.80/90, where several projected Fibonacci levels lie (e.g. the full 200% projection of the February-March 2013 move).

According to Technical Markets Strategist Dmytro Bondar at RBS, “Momentum tools are pretty neutral, as overbought conditions are not meaningful in a strong trend environment. Therefore, unless a clear bearish divergence develops, there seem to be no reasons to fade the trend. The price heads towards the 146.90 resistance, where there might be an initial reaction leading to a consolidation within the 146.20 – 146.90 region. Once the 146.90 resistance is broken, the next targets would be 147.63, 148.09 and 148.44.”

OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page

Apr 05, 2013

OctaFX.Com News Updates

[OctaFX_Farid]

Forex: EUR/USD jumps but the dark clouds remain there; The long & sweet BoJ Game

FXstreet.com (San Francisco) - Is the war, is the currency war! The Euro recovered ground against the US dollar and after two days of spectacular rally, the pair rose 300 pips from the 1.2745 double bottom to break above the MA200 days to 10-day highs at 1.3040. Is it the end of the two month decline for the single currency? But there are Portugal now...

The Portuguese constitutional court rejected some austerity measures listed in the 2013 budget by over €1Bn. The court's rejected measures include public workers and pensioners paycheck, unemployment subsidy and sickness benefit are unconstitutional according to the court. So, the Eurozone seems to be not longer fixed. As resul, the Portuguese Prime Minister Pedro Passos Coelho will hold an extraordinary Council of Ministers on Saturday at 14 GMT. Meanwhile, Socialist opposition leader, António José Seguro, said he's "ready to replace the government."

Another chapter in the long European tragicomedy. Cyprus, Spain, Slovenia, Ireland, Portugal, Italy... who is next? Natural Citi analysts state that "$1.2260 is fair value for the euro."

After consolidating above the 1.3000 during the last part of the session, the EUR/USD reacted slightly down, considering the hour it was a nice movement, and the pair lost 20 pips to close the session at 1.2995. "Bias however remains to the upside as the hourly chart shows price found support in a strongly bullish 20 SMA and indicators heading north above their midlines," comments FXstreet.com analyst Valeria Bednarik. "As long as above 1.2950/60 area the pair could present an upward continuation, although the movement is seen as corrective in the long term, up to 1.3112, 38.2% retracement of its latest daily fall."

Nomura strategist Saeed Amen considers that the EUR/USD is technically bullish. Looking at a daily chart Amen notes that with spot breaking about the 200 SMA, it suggests that momentum is on the upside. Further, he adds that RSI is relatively elevated with the past few weeks. Elsewhere he adds that bandwidth is quite low and it is likely that spot will range from here. He writes, “Hence, our target is relatively close at 1.3000.”

According to the FXstreet.com currencies forecast, investors have just a little more faith in the EUR/USD. With a 1.3021 average as 1-week target, Euro finds some adepts among the experts, at least in the short term view. The quarterly outlook however shows no consensus, seen in a 2000 pips range.

The long and sweet BoJ Game

Impressive Yen weakness across the board. In two days, the USD/JPY rallied 500 pips from the 92.75 area to reach the highest level since June 16 2009 at 97.82. The EUR/JPY climbed 815 pips from the triple bottom at 119.15 to 127.30, highest since February 7th. But atonished was the GBP/JPY. The pair jumped 960 pips, yes... 960, from 140.40 to trade at 150.00, the highest since January 2010.

Natural that George Soros states that the BoJ game is dangerous, many investors could think the same after comparing the Yen performance in the last two days with the last two years. Soros pointed that EE.UU. is three times Japan and in relative terms, he stated that Japan plan is 3 times the current US QE3.

In this line, Rabobank analyst team commented in a recent report that "after years of struggling with deflation there are no guarantees that the BoJ will succeed either in its aim of achieving a 2% y/y inflation on a 3 year view or in returning decent, sustainable growth levels back to Japan."

On balance, Rabobank continues, "we foresee plenty of resistance to future yen losses and consequently have revised up our 12 mth USD/JPY forecast moderately to 97.00 from a previous forecast of 95.00. Near-term, we continue to favour buying USD/JPY on dips."

There are divergences in opinions, early in the day the RBS analyst team published that the BoJ opened "a new era of the JPY funded carry trade," and they said that their RBS' target for the year end is 110.00. On the short term, HSBC revised higher its USD/JPY forecast to 95.00 in Q2, but HSBC keeps view that pair will finish year lower than current spot, targeting 88.00.

The FXstreet.com USD/JPY forecast poll doesn't see heavy gains in the USD/JPY as they sees 97.16 as 1-week average target. However, the Bank of Japan set the tone of USD/JPY, as the pair is expected to remain well bid over the upcoming months, with 100.00 turning real.

"Is 110 Possible in USD/JPY?" BK Asset Management's analyst Kathy Lien asks. "Considering that the Bank of Japan has just begun easing, there's a lot more room to the upside," Lien points. "Its 10 year average is 100 and at minimum, we expect USD/JPY to rise to this level but 110 is also possible though 104.50/105 is a more realistic short term target."

The week ahead:

In the next week, market will digest monetary policy decision with the minutes from the FOMC and Bank of Japan releases and the ECB monthly report. Investors must pay attention to Germany inflation on Thursday and US retail sales and the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index on Friday.

Throughout the weekend, market will focus on Portugal developments and new negotiation between Portuguese government and the opposition, and even the Troika, to fix the 2013 budget.

On Monday, calendar will bring the Sentix Investor Confidence index in the EMU for the month of April, ahead of the German Industrial Production. Across the pond, the most relevant event will be a speech by Chief Bernanke.

OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page

Apr 06, 2013

OctaFX.Com News Updates

[OctaFX_Farid]

Forex: USD/JPY breaks above 99.00

FXstreet.com (Córdoba) - The US dollar continued to advance against the yen during the American afternoon and finally broke above the 99.00 psychological level to hit nearly 4-year high.

USD/JPY extended gains into a third consecutive day and recently hit a high of 99.32, last seen May 2009, before pulling back slightly. At time of writing, USD/JPY is trading around 99.20/25, recording a 1.5% rise on Monday.

As the pair continues to move closer to the 100.00 mark it could face resistances at 99.60 and 99.80. On the other hand, supports could be found at 98.00/05 and 97.30 and 97.00.

OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page

Apr 09, 2013

OctaFX.Com News Updates

[OctaFX_Farid]

Forex Flash: Buy USD/JPY on dips in the near-term, but be warned by headwinds - Rabobank

FXstreet.com (San Francisco) - After rising 665 pips in the last three session from the 92.70 triple bottom area, the USD/JPY reached today the highest level since May 2009 at 99.35. The movement has been fueled by the BoJ aggressive measures to fight the strong yen. Many banks are forecast the USD/JPY to reach the 100.00 this week with the pair ending the year well above the this mark.

The Rabobank's analyst Jane Foley points that "currently the real effective exchange rate of Japan is trading well below the average of the past 20 years. This means the Japanese authorities will now find it difficult to argue that the yen is too expensive." And despite economist and leaders across the world have criticized the measure, the BoJ remains firm in its decision. In this case, Foley states that "the greater the move in the JPY the more likely it is that a discussion about currency wars will be re-ignited. "

Meanwhile, "it appears that while technical resistance in the Y98.90/99.80 area may slow the move down, the yen is still very vulnerable to the enthusiasm that greeted last week’s aggressive BoJ policy action," comments Folwy. Rabobank continues "to favour buying USD/JPY on dips in the near-term, but would warn that JPY losses are likely to be subject to headwinds from a variety of directions which could limit the magnitude of the move."

"The potential for a less robust tone in the USD and a general decline in risk appetite in Asia are not natural conditions for an aggressive rise in USD/JPY," adds the Rabobank analyst. "This suggests it may be more of a struggle for USD/JPY to conquer and hold the 100 barrier than the yen bears currently suggest."

OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page

Apr 09, 2013

OctaFX.Com News Updates

[OctaFX_Farid]

Forex Flash: NZD/JPY heads towards 89.00 - BNZ

FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - As ‘carry trade’ activity picks up through dumping the Yen to buy higher yielding offshore assets, the NZD/JPY seems to be heading towards 89.00 by year-end, says Mike Jones, Currency Strategist at BNZ.

"The trend for a weaker JPY shows no sign of slowing down and we have bumped up our year-end NZD/JPY forecast to 89.00. The risk is for an overshoot" says Mr. Jones.

OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page

Apr 09, 2013

OctaFX.Com News Updates

[OctaFX_Farid]

Forex: NZD/USD hits 2-month high

FXstreet.com (Córdoba) - The Kiwi dollar extended gains versus its US counterpart in a bout of risk appetite and posted a fresh 2-month high above 0.8500 ahead of the New York opening.

NZD/USD has gained over 50 pips throughout the day and recently reached its highest level since Feb 15 at 0.8512. At time of writing, the cross is trading around 0.8505/10, recording a 0.6% advance since opening.

On the upside, 2013 high set back in February at 0.8532 could offer resistance, followed by 0.8570 (Aug 31 2011 high). On the other hand, supports are seen at 0.8465 (intraday level) and 0.8450 (Apr 3 high).

OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page

Apr 09, 2013

OctaFX.Com News Updates

[OctaFX_Farid]

USD muted after FOMC minutes

FXstreet.com (Córdoba) - In an unusual move, the Federal Reserve released the minutes from its March 19-20 meeting earlier than scheduled. However neither the surprise nor the content had much effect on the US dollar, which trades overall mixed across the board.

Minutes showed members disagreed on the appropriate timing to start withdrawing QE. Several participants saw asset purchases slowing later in the year and stopping by year-end, while some saw a reduction in purchases at about midyear.

Meanwhile, broad risk appetite, which saw the S&P 500 reach yet another all time high, boosted commodity currencies and other risk trades, but the shared currency failed to benefit from the positive mood.

Despite recent advance, the euro remains threatened by reality in the eurozone. Economic indicators are not improving, and like they were in a cue, one by one members come under the market's spotlight and scrutiny, with Slovenia now gaining attention.

Against the yen, the greenback continues to approach the major 100.00 area as the BoJ ultra loose policy it's taking its toll on the Japanese currency.

Euro fails to hold above 1.3100

Technically speaking, even though the outlook begins to turn slightly negative in short-term charts, EUR/USD holds a positive tone in bigger time frames. Still the 1.3140/50 area (the 100– and 50– day moving averages) is the more important resistance level to overcome to confirm an upward continuation with 1.3200 as next target.

On the other hand, loss of the 1.3000 mark (psychological level/100-hour SMA) could increase pressure on the cross and see a deeper correction.

OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page

Apr 10, 2013

OctaFX.Com News Updates

[OctaFX_Farid]

Forex: EUR/USD keeps the lows around 1.3055/60

FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - The single currency is closing the session in red on Wednesday, hovering over intraday lows around 1.3055/60 in a context dominated by the risk aversion.

Looking into Thursday’s calendar, consumer prices in Germany and France will precede the ECB Monthly Report ahead of 3-year bond Italian auction. In the US economy, Imports/Exports Prices are due as well as the weekly report on the labour market.

At the moment EUR/USD is down 0.19% at 1.3057 with the next support at 1.3006 (low Apr.9) ahead of 1.2963 (low Apr.8) and finally 1.2928 (MA10d).

On the upside, a breach of 1.3135 (high Mar.8) would expose 1.3163 (high Feb.28) and then 1.3229 (50% of Feb-Apr slide).

OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page

Apr 10, 2013

OctaFX.Com News Updates

[OctaFX_Farid]

Forex: USD/JPY rises to test 99.80, new 4-year highs

FXstreet.com (San Francisco) - The US dollar is extending further its advance against the Japanese yen with the pair gaining around 40 pips in the latest couple of hours from 99.40 to reach the highest level since April 2009 at 99.80. Currently the USD/JPY is trading at 99.65.

With 0.67% gains on the day, the USD/JPY is trading slightly bullish according to the FXstreet.com trend index. Indicators such as CCI, Momentun and MACD are pointing bullish while the Stochastic is bearish in the 1-hour chart.

Valeria Bednarik, chief analyst at FXstreet.com, notes that the pair holds a positive bias with 100.00 at sight. Bednarik locates next resistances at 99.80, 100.00 and 100.45, while supports are seen at 99.50, 99.10 and 98.80.

OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page

Apr 10, 2013

OctaFX.Com News Updates

[OctaFX_Farid]

Forex: EUR/SEK dips to session lows on higher CPI

FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - The Swedish krona is posting strong gains against the single currency on Thursday, after the Nordic consumer prices advanced 0.4% on a monthly basis, exceeding estimates. Over the last twelve months, prices came in flat, leaving behind the previous contraction of 0.2%.

In the opinion of Erica Blomgren, FI Strategist at SEB, “the recent advance of 2% in house prices during March would point to a hawkish bias from the Riksbank”, ahead of its next meeting.

At the moment, the pair is down 0.30% at 8.3345 with the next support at 8.3095 (low Apr.3) en route to 8.3051 (low Apr.2) and then 8.2840 (low Mar.27).

On the other hand, a surpass of 8.3910 (high Apr.10) would open the door to 8.4457 (high Apr.4) and finally 8.4585 (high Mar.25).

OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page

Apr 11, 2013

OctaFX.Com News Updates

[OctaFX_Farid]

Strong demand at Italian debt auction

FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - The Italian Treasury held a debt auction on Thursday during which it sold a total of 7.169 billion euro worth of 3- year bonds and CCTEU notes, exceeding the maximum target of 5.5-7.5 billion euros.

The 3-year bonds were auctioned at an average yield of 2.29%, compared with 2.48% seen at the previous auction. This is the lowest yield since January.

OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page

Apr 11, 2013

OctaFX.Com News Updates

[OctaFX_Farid]

Forex: AUD/USD dips to lows around 1.0530

FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - The Aussie dollar is printing fresh intraday lows in the boundaries of 1.0530 on Friday, as risk version is now reining in the markets.

“Current AUD levels still leave the currency above where we were in the immediate aftermath of yesterday’s weak local employment data (1.0510) with the slightly heightened prospects of the RBA coming back to the easing table doing no real harm at this stage”, commented analysts at NAB.

At the moment, the cross is down 0.12% at 1.0532 with the immediate support at 1.0524 (broken trendline) followed by 1.0515 (hourly high/lows Apr.11) and finally 1.0500 (low Apr.11).

On the upside, a breakout of 1.0583 (high Apr.11) would aim for 1.0599 (high Jan.10) ahead of 1.0625 (high Mar.20).

OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page

Apr 12, 2013

OctaFX.Com News Updates

[OctaFX_Farid]

Forex: EUR/GBP upside capped by 0.8550

FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - The pair is posting marginal losses on Monday, trading around 0.8545/50 although failing to break above 0.8550 so far.

Both the single currency and the sterling are suffering the increasing selling interest in the risk-related assets since Chinese GDP figures during the first quarter have disappointed investors this early morning.

“The market remains upside corrective and we look for the near term rebound from the .8417 low to test the 55 day ma at .8583. There is scope for a move to the top of its cloud at .8646 currently, where we look for the up move to falter”, commented Karen Jones, Head of FICC Technical Analysis at Commerzbank.

At the moment, the pair is losing 0.04% at 0.8544 with the next support at 0.8512 (MA10d) followed by 0.8495 (low Apr.12) and finally 0.8464 (low Apr.8).

On the flip side, a breakout of 0.8560 (high Apr.10) would aim for 0.8565 (high Mar.25) and then 0.8570 (high Mar.21).

OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page

Apr 15, 2013

OctaFX.Com News Updates

[OctaFX_Farid]

US markets retreat on China, gold increases the sell-off

FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - Shares in the US markets are submerged into the red territory on Monday, following the sharp sell-off in the gold market and the disappointing data from the Chinese GDP during the first quarter, growing 7.7% on a yearly basis vs. 8.0% expected. The US Dollar Index is posting marginal gains in the area of 82.40/45, as markets are slightly biased towards safer assets.

DowJones is losing 1.06%, followed by the S&P500 and the Nasdaq, down 1.39% and 1.57%, respectively.

Bourses in Euroland closed in a ‘sea of red’ on Chinese data. In addition, the wave of selling orders in the precious metal took a toll on the miners, dragging the indices lower. The FTSE100 led the losers, falling 0.64%, followed by the CAC40, 0.50% and the DAX, 0.41%.

The single currency keeps the 1.3070/1.3100 range on Monday, with China as the leitmotif and proving unable to break above the 1.3110/15 area.

In the commodities realm, the precious metal is tanking 8.41% at $1,375 and the barrel of WTI is following suit, retreating 2.66% at $88.86.

OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page

Apr 15, 2013

OctaFX.Com News Updates

[OctaFX_Farid]

Forex: EUR/USD remains trapped in a range

FXstreet.com (Córdoba) - The euro continues to trade within today's range against the dollar, consolidating above 1.3050 and holding up pretty well despite broad risk aversion.

EUR/USD started the week above 1.3100, but slowly retreated throughout the day before finding support at 1.3051 during the European session but with the subsequent bounce being capped by 1.3107, the cross was confined to a tighter range.

At time of writing, EUR/USD is trading around 1.3070, where it is 0.3% below its opening price. From a technical perspective, Valeria Bednarik, chief analyst at FXstreet.com notes that technical readings hold a neutral stance in 4-hour chart, and points out that as long as EUR/USD ranges within 1.3040/1.3120 it will remain trendless.

OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page

Apr 15, 2013

OctaFX.Com News Updates

[OctaFX_Farid]

European Commission intends to advance Cyprus structural payments

FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - Recently in a letter to Cypriot President Nicos Anastasiades, President of the European Commission Barroso has extended monetary assistance in advancing the future of the EU budget to Cyprus.

In particular, the European Commission – through the letter to Barroso – has proposed an advance payment of the proposed budget for Cyprus for 2014-2020 in effect aiming to ease the island's economy.

Barroso also offered more competitive rates than before the turmoil, and could increase the amount of funds provided to the island over the next seven years, which are now estimated at 945 million euros.

OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page

Apr 16, 2013

OctaFX.Com News Updates

[OctaFX_Farid]

Forex: USD/JPY still failing at 98.00

FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - The market retracement seen during the Asian and European session after the drop to 95.83 low failed to extend above the 98.00 handle as it peaked at 98.01 high and has been quoting just below that area despite several attempts.

The economic calendar will provide an interesting load of data from the US, including the CPI report, Housing Starts and Industrial Production. “We expect headline CPI to rise by +0.1%/mth, following the chunky +0.7% rise the month before. On an annual basis, favorable base effects lower the rate from 2.0% to 1.7%/yr (mkt 1.6%)”, wrote TD Securities analyst Annette Beacher, expecting also a relatively subdued Core CPI, at +0.2%/mth and 1.7%/yr (mkt 2.0%).

According to Fxbriefs.com analyst Peter Jackson, Philadelphia Fed’s Plosser said he would be uncomfortable saying the Fed won’t engage in asset sales, but he would like to see it happen in an eventual exit from the current Fed stimulus program and the central bank should return to use Fed funds rate as the policy instrument. Also, he wishes to shrink the balance sheet as well as short the duration of our portfolio in all treasuries.

“Hourly indicators are pointing higher, though still in the negative zone, as 55 day EMA caps the upside, while 4h indicators hold negative tone so far does not give much upside potential, unless the price clearly breaks above 98.00/30 barriers that may ease still existing bear-pressure”, wrote Windsor Brokers analyst Slobodan Drvenica, pointing to resistance at 97.89, 98.25 and 98.70, while supports are at 97.27. 97.00 and 96.60.

OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page

Apr 16, 2013

OctaFX.Com News Updates

[OctaFX_Farid]

Forex Flash: CBRT surprises with wider rate cut than expected, by 50bp to 5% - TD Securities

FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - TD Securities analysts reported the widely expected repo rate cut by the CBRT decided at their April 16th meeting. “They cut 50bp to 5.00% instead that 25bp we and the consensus had expected. The CBRT also slashed the overnight rate corridor (both lending and borrowing rates) by 50bp, in line with our forecast (consensus looked for -25bp on the lending rate and -50bp for the borrowing rate)”, wrote analyst Cristian Maggio, considering it a strong message to the market that short-term rates should be lower, hence the lira weaker. “The market was positioned for a dovish outcome, but the combined CBRT measures came in even more loose than expected”, continued Maggio, adding that the CBRT also decided to withdraw additional liquidity by increasing the ROCs by 0.2 on all tranches but the first one of FX reserves commercial banks hold at the CBRT. “The effect should be $1.4bn of liquidity drained from the market”, he concluded.

In regard to the FX market, the USD/TRY had a kneejerk spike to 1.7986, but as the pair failed to break the psychological level of 1.80, it is now retracing at the pre-announcement levels. “However, we continue to consider the lira as rich against USD and EUR at these levels. Surprisingly enough, the TRY REER moved below 120 to 119.58 after the CBRT’s announcement”, wrote the TD Securities analyst.

OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page

Apr 16, 2013

OctaFX.Com News Updates

[OctaFX_Farid]

Forex: USD/CHF falls back to weekly lows

FXstreet.com (Córdoba) - After being rejected by the 0.9325 area, USD/CHF resumed the downside and retested this week's lows, although the Swissy lacked strength enough to drag the cross below the 0.9260/65 support zone.

USD/CHF has been seesawing within the 0.9265/0.9340 range over the last days, unable to set fresh direction. Having hit a daily low at 0.9265, roughly the same level than yesterday, the pair is currently trading around 0.9270/75, still 0.4% below its opening price.

As for technical levels, the Mataf.net analyst team locates immediate supports at 0.9265, 0.9240 and 0.9200, while they see resistances at 0.9290, 0.9330 and 0.9365.

OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page

Apr 16, 2013

OctaFX.Com News Updates

[OctaFX_Farid]

Forex Flash: Fed locked in to current strategy despite US economy – UBS

FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - Q3 policy-driven price action in gold brings us to an interesting point. Since Q4, the Fed's balance sheet has been expanding again but gold has not responded in the usual 'debasement' manner. According to Research Analyst Gareth Berry at UBS, “Initially, this was attributed to better US data and stable inflation expectations (or easing disinflationary pressures). Such factors are indeed negative for gold and a stronger dollar is a part of this (self-fulfilling) process.”

The first week of April witnessed a massive dose of (potential) liquidity provision from the Bank of Japan, while weakening data out of the US is also pointing to shifts in policy expectations again for the Fed. In addition, if emerging markets are indeed weakening, then stimulus either through rates or outright quantitative policy (such as FX-intervention) can be expected. All of these factors should have proven to be positive for the yellow metal.

Again, points to other factors at play such as positioning. “However, if we look at the broader policy picture, then perhaps the move in the gold price is telling markets something far more pernicious: Central Bank activism has failed. Simply put, even if the US' economy is weakening further, it is hard to see what the Fed can do beyond their current actions.” Berry adds.

OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page

Apr 16, 2013

OctaFX.Com News Updates

[OctaFX_Farid]

Forex Flash: USD/CAD risk comes in the BoC outlook – TD Securities

FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - In regard to the BoC policy meeting of today, being one of Governor Carney’s last major policy decisions before he leaves for the BoE, TD Securities analysts expect much attention given to the event. “The overnight rate will remain at 1.00% and the statement will continue to reflect a very mild tightening bias, it is widely expected”, wrote analysts Shaun Osborne and Greg Moore, adding that “the risk for the CAD comes in the messaging on the outlook, however, with the BoC likely to moderate further its message on the economy considering the weak growth trend evident in the domestic economy so far this year”.

In terms of USD/CAD trading, TD Securities analysts note that the market has struggled in the mid/upper 1.02 area so far this week but a clear push through 1.0250/60 intraday should be enough to signal an extension of this move up chart-wise. “The USD/CAD has been consolidating since the early March peak and this week’s push through resistance in the 1.02 are should signal the start of the next trending leg higher (we think 1.06 is reachable by mid-year)”, they concluded.

OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official page

Apr 17, 2013

OctaFX.Com News Updates