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Forex: EUR/USD eases to 1.2840/45

FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - The bloc currency is now giving away initial gains in the area of 1.2840, printing fresh session lows at the same time, after the French Consumer Confidence slipped to 84 for the month of March, missing estimates at 85

“The government’s decision to impose capital controls in an attempt to stem capital flight from Cyprus when the banks re-open on Thursday is also undermining investor confidence in the euro, although they are planned to be “very temporary” and “will gradually be relaxed”, comments Lee Hardman, Currency Analyst at BTMU.

As of writing, the cross is flat at 1.2849 facing the next resistance at 1.2950 (MA10d) followed by 1.3050 (high Mar.25) and then 1.3107 (high Mar.15).

On the other hand, a breakdown of 1.2832 (low Mar.25) would aim for 1.2730 (low Nov.19) and finally 1.2700 (161.8% of Feb1 2011).

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Mar 26, 2013

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US: S&P/Case-Shiller index rose 8.1% YoY in January

FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - The S&P/Case-Shiller 20-city composite index of house prices posted an annual expansion of 8.1% in the month of January, exceeding expectations at 7.8% and December’s increase of 6.8%.

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Mar 26, 2013

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European Parliament considers bailing-in large depositors

FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - The euro dropped in the European afternoon on information from Reuters that the European Parliament would be inclined to bail-in big savers, who hold deposits of over 100,000 euros at distressed banks.

MEP Gunnar Hokmark, who is taking part in creating a new law aimed at dealing with such banks told Reuters that: "Deposits below 100,000 euros are protected ... deposits above 100,000 euros are not protected and shall be treated as part of the capital that can be bailed in."

Eurogroup chief Jeroen Dijsselbloem’s comments on Monday, suggesting that the bailout deal struck between Cyprus and the Troika might be a model for rescue programs for other EU countries in the future, caused the European stock markets to drop sharply in late trading.

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Mar 26, 2013

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Forex: AUD/USD extends its decline from 1.0490

FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - The positive momentum in the Aussie dollar faltered in the boundaries of 1.0490, sparking then a correction lower to the current levels around 1.0465/70

After today’s Financial Stability Report by the RBA, Senior Economist at NAB S.Papadopoulos commented that the domestic banking sector remains in a strong position, with the housing sector following suit, “with savings still high and little appetite for debt”.

“So the currently low cash rate will not be lowered further to appease households, rather the target is businesses. If investment growth in non-mining sectors remains soft, or labour hiring slows (or job shedding increases) then that may lead to further rate cuts”, assessed the expert.

At the moment, the cross is down 0.15% at 1.0466

Next support levels align at 1.0408 (MA100d) ahead of 1.0405 (MA10d) and finally 1.0363 (low Mar.21).

On the flip side, a breakout of 1.0555 (high Jan.24) would open the door to 1.0560 (hourly high/low Jan.23) and then 1.0578 (high Jan.22).

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Mar 27, 2013

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United Kingdom: Total Business Investment (YoY) (4Q): 0.8% vs 5.1% (3Q)

Read more in Forex News

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Mar 27, 2013

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Commodities Brief – Precious metals falter, crude surges forward toward 97.00

FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - Gold prices managed to fall below the 1600 barrier/support Thursday, as Cypriot banks reopen and renewed confidence permeates the land. With upbeat GDP data coming out of the US earlier, the mood was all the more palpable of a steadfast recovery – the USD index also crept higher. Having rescinded its hold on the aforementioned level, the price is trading at USD $1597.12 per oz. in these moments during US trading. A retest of the 1600 mark will ultimately steady the nerves of gold bears and preserve an upside trend that was holding on a weekly basis.

Silver edge lower

The white metal continued its decent today after managing to pare its losses yesterday in an ugly session for metals. Thursday has thus far proved to be a risk-on trading day, perhaps with investors already looking ahead to Good Friday. Having bottomed out at the 28.46 region earlier (intraday lows), silver is presently trading at USD $28.50 per oz. With the MACD holding negative, it looks to be more of the same during American trading today.

Crude rallies towards 97.00

Whereas precious metals have faltered, crude oil has staged a nice rally, breaking above the 96.00 barrier overnight and even making a run towards 97.00. Bolstered by positive news out of the US regarding GDP growth in Q4, WTI Crude prices are negotiating a price of USD $96.74/bbl in these moments.

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Mar 28, 2013

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Forex Flash: USD/JPY looks neutral ahead - BTMU

FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ analysts are neutral on USD/JPY for the week ahead and see spot moving between a range of 93.00-96.00.

The begin by noting the recent Cyprus issue supported Yen buying, However, fundamental yen selling pressure was also firm. They note that the upcoming BoJ monetary policy meeting may be of no surprise, but there is one more scheduled monetary policy meeting on April 26th and market expectations for further monetary accommodation will underpin the yen selling momentum. Next week, the lower ceiling of USD/JPY may be at the 93.00-level. Additionally, they note that the NFP figure may also support USD buying next week, and move USD/JPY to the 95.00s.

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Mar 28, 2013

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Forex: EUR/USD finds support around 1.2810/15

FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - The single currency is giving away some pips at the moment, hovering over the area of 1.2810/15, as thin trade and lack of market-movers dominate the session so far.

Against the backdrop of the recent events in Cyprus, Analysts at Brown Brothers Harriman commented, “The market is casting about looking for the "next Cyprus". The consensus appears to be settling on Slovenia, where a new government is wrestling with a weak and leveraged (not nearly as much as Cyprus) banking system. Bond yields have risen sharply in recent days and the 5-year CDS has risen from around 240 to almost 355 over the past two weeks”.

The pair is now losing 0.02% at 1.2814 with the next support at 1.2804 (low Oct.2012) followed by 1.2751 (low Mar.27) and then 1.2730 (low Nov.19).

On the flip side, a breakout of 1.2884 (MA200d) ahead of 1.3050 (high Mar.25) and then 1.3163 (high Feb.28).

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Mar 29, 2013

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Forex Flash: USD/CHF potential decline ahead – Societe Generale

FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - The cross is now trading in a very narrow range between 0.9490 and 0.9500 on Friday, stabilizing after climbing as high as the boundaries of 0.9560 on Wednesday, following the positive momentum of the USD.

The research team at Societe Generale commented, “ USD/CHF realized vol now very toppish and we expect it to diminish. The realized vols of EUR/USD and USD/CHF are now at similar levels, and this cannot last, as the positive correlation between EUR/USD and EUR/CHF will dampen USD/CHF moves. All in all, this should pressure the USD/CHF implied vol curve lower”.

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Mar 29, 2013

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Forex: What a trip! The EUR/USD close the quarter at 1.2800

FXstreet.com (San Francisco) - 960 pips epic decline. The EUR/USD opened the year at 1.3185, in January the pair advanced more than 500 pips to the 1.3575 level and in the first day of February, the Euro even advanced to the highest since November 2011 at 1.3710 but suddenly something changed.

After Draghi and company was showing euphoria in the beginning of the year, they switched into the dark mode and the pair fell to test the 1.2750 level, in an impressive 960 epic two months decline. Currently the EUR/USD is trading around 1.2820 on Good Friday. News from Cyprus and now from Italy has hurt the pair that it seems to be set to continue the bearishness.

The EUR/USD traded sideways the whole Friday's session, moving between 1.2810 and 1.2835. The pair closed the session 0.03% positive at 1.2820. As for the short term, it will face the next hurdle at 1.2884 (MA200d) en route to 1.3050 (high Mar.25) and then 1.3163 (high Feb.28). On the flip side, a breakdown of 1.2804 (low Oct.2012) would open the door to 1.2751 (low Mar.27) and finally 1.2730 (low Nov.19).

What's next?

According to the FXstreet.com Forecast poll, the EUR/USD is negative, but not that much. Despite latest developments in Europe, our pool shows that a large majority expects the pair to remain above 1.25 and resume the upside later this quarter. The poll expects the EUR/USD finishing the next week at 1.2815 and the month at the same region at 1.2849. The picture is different in the 3-month target with the 1.3128 as target.

But Societe Generale states that the EUR/USD remains bullish above 1.2660/20. “Our technical analyst sees that only a weekly close for EUR/USD below 1.2660/20 would negate the bullish pattern arising from the June 2012 to January 2013 rally. Our quant USD positioning indicator remains firmly in long-USD mode”, explained the research team at Societe Generale.

BTMU agrees with that as they thinks that the EUR/USD looks bullish ahead. Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ analysts are bullish on EUR/USD for the week ahead and see spot moving between a range of 1.2650-1.3000. The bank believes that the fears over Cyprus will recede and the focus will shift to Italy. "“We may also get some movement toward the Italian president appointing an interim prime minister which would alleviate fears over political uncertainty in Italy."

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Mar 30, 2013

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Forex: GBP/USD consolidates below 1.5200

FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - The sterling is following the prevailing offered tone in riskier assets on Monday, testing session lows in the vicinity of 1.5180 after briefly hitting levels above 1.5200 overnight.

Interesting week ahead for the sterling, as manufacturing and services PMI prints plus the BoE MPC meeting are due, although traders expect the repo rate and the asset purchase programme to remain unchanged.

As of writing, the cross is down 0.05% at 1.5185 with the next support at 1.5112 (low Mar.28) followed by 1.5092 (low Mar.27) and then 1.5090 (low Mar.21).

On the upside, a surpass of 1.5207 (high Mar.26) would bring 1.5280 (high Mar.25) en route to the psychological level of 1.5300

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Apr 01, 2013

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Forex: GBP/USD eases to 1.5190

FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - The sterling is retracing initial gains after climbing to the boundaries of 1.5220, as risk appetite is shrinking ahead of the US manufacturing data.

“Barring ongoing negative data surprises, it appears that downside drivers for sterling may be limited in the short term and entrenched shorts are being lifted. Structural woes in the Eurozone are also helping sterling’s case”, assessed G.Yu y G.Berry, Strategists at UBS.

As of writing, the pair is flat at 1.5192 with the immediate support at 1.5112 (low Mar.28) followed by 1.5092 (low Mar.27) and then 1.5090 (low Mar.21).

On the upside, a surpass of 1.5207 (high Mar.26) would bring 1.5280 (high Mar.25) en route to the psychological level of 1.5300

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Apr 01, 2013

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Forex: EUR/USD still facing resistance at 1.2825 ahead of US ISM PMI

FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - Some volatility was seen prior to the release of the March manufacturing PMI by Markit, with a first test of support at 1.2800 before a rise to 1.2825 resistance. Data rose from 54.3 to 54.6, disappointing investors looking for a figure at 54.9. The EUR/USD eased from its highs towards 1.2815, for now, ahead of US ISM manufacturing PMI and construction spending.

The ISM manufacturing PMI is expected to come in at 54.1. “This will mark the fourth consecutive month in expansionary territory for this indicator, as the sustained push higher has been reflected in the improving tone in the various regional manufacturing sector indicators, which are now all in expansionary territory”, wrote TD Securities analyst Alvin Pontoh, pointing to the steady improvement in the new orders to inventory spread (a proxy for future production activity) which is now at its highest level since May, as key to upside potential for production activity.

“New orders activity should advance during the month, with the employment sub-index also edging higher. Nevertheless, as the pace of growth slows in the coming months, we expect manufacturing sector activity to moderate”, Pontoh concluded.

“The EUR/USD currency pair is being corrected towards its previous descending structure. We think today the price may reach the level of 1.2850 and then start a new descending movement towards the target at 1.2700”, wrote Roboforex.com analyst Igor Sayadov, expecting then a reversal pattern for a new ascending trend.

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Apr 01, 2013

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Forex: GBP/USD hovering over 1.5225/30

FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - The sterling is following its European counterpart on Monday, now giving away part of the initial gains after climbing above 1.5240.

After the last report of the CFTC COT, S.Osborne and G.Moore at TD Securities, commented, “The GBP net short was also extended and remains at extreme levels not seen since autumn 2011. The BoE is in focus later this week and could shift positioning considerably”.

As of writing, the pair is up 0.24% at 1.5230

Next resistance levels align at 1.5260 (hourly highs Mar.25) ahead of1.5280 (high Mar.25) and finally 1.5330 (high Feb.22).

On the downside, a break below 1.5200 (high Feb.28) would aim for 1.5180 (hourly lows Mar.28) and then 1.5165 (MA10d).

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Apr 01, 2013

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Forex: EUR/USD climbs to 1.2840 after German CPI

FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - The shared currency is hovering over the area of 1.2840/45 on Tuesday, after preliminary inflation figures in Germany showed the CPI rose 1.4% on a year to March, banging on estimates, and rose 0.5% on a monthly basis, above the 0.4% forecasted.

Regarding Cyprus, the finmin, M.Sarris has stepped down, although the single currency remains muted.

Next on tap will be the US Factory Orders, expected to grow 2.9% during February, leaving behind January’s contraction of 2.0%.

At the moment, the cross is down 0.05% at 1.2841 with the next support at 1.2751 (low Mar.27) ahead of 1.2730 (low Nov.19) and finally 1.2680 (61.8% of 1.2042-1.3711).

On the flip side, a break above 1.2886 (MA200d) would expose 1.2890 (high Mar.26) and finally 1.2943 (MA21d).

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Apr 02, 2013

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Forex: AUD/USD aiming at daily highs again

FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - The AUD/USD is holding most of its gains made during the Asian session as the RBA decided to keep its monetary policy intact, with the rate at 3% for the third month in a row. The cross had risen to 1.0479 high, and after profit taking ahead of the European opening, the market climbed the chart back to its highs. Ahead of the NY opening, the AUD/USD eased again, to 1.0454, and is currently attempting at moving higher.

“Barring offshore shocks, we believe the RBA is in a comfortable position to sit tight for the next couple of meetings (TD –25bp in June, to 2.75%) as we all wait for Mar qtr CPI report (24 April) and capex survey (30 May)”, wrote TD Securities analyst Alvin Pontoh, pointing also to the strong rise in the RP Data-Rismark dwelling price index by 1.3% m/m and 2.4% y/y, the fastest annual increase since early 2011, while the PMI slid 1.2pt to 44.4 in March.

US Economic optimism by IBD/TIPP came a little higher than expected, rising from 42.2 to 46.2 for the April report, beating the 46.1 consensus but still below the 50.0 threshold. A big drop on the ISM New York was seen in March as it eased from 58.8 to 51.2, remaining in an expansionary pace, though.

“The AUD/USD has broken its support at 1.0421. However, the subsequent bounce suggests a still strong buying interest”, wrote MIG Bank analyst Bijoy Kar, monitoring the hourly resistance at 1.0497 (26/03/2013 high) and the hourly support at 1.0386 (01/04/2013 low.

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Apr 02, 2013

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Forex Flash: Looking past Cyprus, Italian politics are next - BBH

FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - Brown Brothers Harriman analysts believe that when investors have managed to look beyond Cyprus, Italian politics seem to be the next worry on the horizon.

They feel that there are increasingly worrisome signs in the real economy, as well as in the financial sector too. They write, “The March manufacturing PMI (44.5) is the lowest since last August and the forward looking orders slumped since last May. Output and employment are at seven-month lows. The general reduction of Target2 imbalances continued into February.”

However, the notable exception was in Italy where liabilities rose by EUR 28bln, the largest increase in a year and reversing the improvement seen over the past six months. In addition, unlike most other countries central banks, the Bank of Italy increased its borrowing from the ECB for the first time since last July. They write, “Without putting too fine of a point on it, these figures point to increasing financial strains in Italy.”

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Apr 02, 2013

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Forex: EUR/GBP at 0.8480 after UK PMI and EMU CPI

FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - The EUR/GBP first dropped as low as 0.8469 on the London opening but eventually jumped back to 0.8490 on the release of UK PMI Construction that rose from 46.8 to 47.2 in March, although staying below the 47.5 consensus. As of writing, the cross is quoting around 0.8480. Also out was the preliminary release of EMU CPI in March, coming in at 1.7% from 1.8%, as expected.

Investors are awaiting tomorrow’s policy announcements by the ECB and BoE. In regard to the European central bank, TD Securities analysts believe the IFO survey was strong enough to mitigate the tracking for the Eurozone until March surveys universally disappointed. “So if the data is bad enough over the next month, this could trigger a response, or at least flagging the risks for June”, wrote analyst Richard Kelly.

“A break of the hourly resistance at 0.8499 (26/03/2013 high) is needed to improve the short-term technical configuration. A key resistance can be found at 0.8602 (20/03/2013 high)”, wrote MIG Bank analyst Bijoy Kar.

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Apr 03, 2013

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Forex Flash: US Jobs in focus - Societe Generale

FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - Kit Juckes, Global Head of Currency Strategy at Societe Generale notes that today, the ADP National Employment Report likely will colour expectations heading into Friday's official government release.

He sees that data in hand points to a 225,000 jump in the ADP private payrolls series, after a 198,000 rise during the prior month. The release of the non-manufacturing ISM gauge will also be a focus for market participants. He writes, “We project that the aforementioned measure retreated by 2.3 points to an eight-month low of 53.7 in March.”

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Apr 03, 2013

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Cyprus would extend capital control for seven more days

FXstreet.com (San Francisco) - According to Cypriot central bank officials cited by Bloomberg, Cyprus will issue a decree extending capital controls for seven days.

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Apr 03, 2013

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BoJ more aggressive than sky-high-expectation

FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - The long awaited first Bank of Japan's meeting under Haruhiko Kuroda's surveillance has been published, with the bank announcing the implementation of the following monetary policies:

- Bank of Japan will double its monetary base thru JGBs and ETFs in 2 years. The decision was unanimous

- Merger asset program with regular bond buys

- Purchases of assets extended from 3-year maturities to 7/8-years maturity

- JGBs Of all maturities open as future options for purchase

- BOJ will buy over 7 trillion yen worth of bonds each month.

- Target on bond buying would expand monetary base to the point of reaching Y270 trillion by 2014

- BOJ will increase JGB holdings at Y50T/year

- Suspension of the 'Banknote Rule' temporarily

- Introduction of 'Quantitative and Qualitative Monetary Easing'

- Decision to keep ultra-easing policy until 2% inflation is achieved sustainably approved by 8-1. BoJ member Kiuchi dissented.

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Apr 04, 2013

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Forex: USD/JPY with violent jumps, now above 95.00

FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - Despite the announcement of a new monetary policy framework and more easing than expected from the BoJ, the USD/JPY took its time to switch from a numb state just below 93.00 to jump above the 94.00 handle. After a few moments, the pair went for another leap, this time to 95.44, but noticeably retraced back. Markets are positioning themselves to this surprise action.

The BoJ is now targeting the monetary base rather than the overnight call rate. Surpassing market consensus of 10y point, Rinban operations and the JGB component of the Asset Purchase Program were folded into a new purchasing program with the authority to buy all along the JGB curve - even out to the 40y point. The BoJ expects its total holdings of JGBs to rise to Y140 trn by end-2013, Y26trn more than the previous guidance. JGB holdings are now forecast to rise a further Y50 trn during 2014.

“Minor resistance comes in at the 95.25 near term resistance line ahead of 96.14 and the 96.71 March high”, wrote Commerzbank analyst Karen Jones, pointing to longer term target at 99.70 (50% retracement of the 2007 to 2011 drop) and then 101.27/67 (the 1999 and 2005 lows).

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Apr 04, 2013

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UK: PMI Services improves to 52.4 in March

FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - UK PMI Services increased to 52.4 points in March, from 51.8 points in February, according to data released today by Markit.

Analysts expected a decrease to 51.5.

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Apr 04, 2013

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Forex Flash: USD/CAD sell on rallies – TD Securities

FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - With no domestic data on tap and plenty of Fed-speak today ahead of tomorrow’s data deluge, TD Securities analysts favor neutral range-trading in USD/CAD in the near-term.

“From a technical point of view, we have been bearish USD/CAD over the past week or two but price trends suggest that the recent improvement may be stalling”; wrote analysts Shaun Osborne and Greg Moore, looking to sell USD rallies at the moment though “and we still rather think that the 1.0180/85 area should be firm short-term resistance”.

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Apr 04, 2013

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Forex Flash: USD/CAD sell on rallies – TD Securities

FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - What a final session of the week for Tokyo traders today with China closed for holidays and local share markets down dragged on Hong-Kong losing more than -2% on the back of bird flue fears, while Nikkei index gained at some point of the early session more than +4%, adding to yesterday's +2.2% advance.

BoJ Kuroda was confirmed by Japanese lower house, giving a speech on his compromise to keep pushing on monetary easing measures until decent gains in inflation rates are seen. USD/JPY printed a fresh 3.5-year high at 97.18, while Nikkie index climbed above the 13k mark for the first time since pre-Lehman crisis, back in August 2008.

Other major currency pairs have been quiet over all, including commodities as Gold and Oil, while Hang-Seng index has extended the loses to -2.55% last, and USD/JPY flipped to the downside back to 96.20 lows, on the back of a broad USD selling move, and a 10 year Japanese bond massive sell off.

Main Headlines in the Asian session:

Yellen comments hitting the newswires now – will allow inflation >2% slightly and temporarily

Chinese markets closed again today

Forex: EUR/USD tests the 1.2950 ahead jobs report; More to come?

What the BOJ committed to yesterday

Forex: EUR/AUD stalls below 8-day highs at 1.2400

Aso – wont comment on bond yield level

Amari also speaking with reporters – Have to show there is no concern on fiscal sustainability

Japan Mar JP Foreign Reserves falls to $1254.4B vs $1258.8B

Forex: AUD/USD showing weakness below 1.0450

Forex Flash: NFP at 200k – Westpac

Forex: USD/JPY breaks above previous 3.5-year highs

Forex Flash: USD/JPY longs looking to take profit – TDS

USD/JPY – next barrier option at 97.25

Kuroda still going: The BOJ will continue easing until price growth is sustainable

Soros – Yen fall may become like an avalanche

Forex: EUR/JPY biggest single day rally on record above 125.30

Forex: EUR/USD below 1.2930 takes a pause ahead of key US NFP

Kuroda has been confirmed by the Japanese lower house as BOJ Governor

USD/JPY: Off the highs as 10 year yields climb

Tokyo stock exchange halts trading in JGB futures after sharp drop

Forex: USD/JPY dives below 96.30 on massive taking profit

Japan leading indicators feb: +2.5 vs +3.1 prev

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Apr 05, 2013

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