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EUR is up off its lows, focus still on ECB QE – Scotiabank



FXStreet (Barcelona) - Camilla Sutton CFA, CMT, Chief FX Strategist at Scotiabank, notes that EUR is up 0.3% in the NA open after Friday’s lows, further adding that with limited data in sight the focus still remains in the ECB QE.

Key Quotes

“EUR is up 0.3% into the NA open; however the core takeaway is that EUR fell to fresh lows on Friday, flirting with a break below 1.22. News reports continue to focus on the German stance on potential ECB QE, with several reports suggesting that those close to Chancellor Merkel are not in favour.”

“European yields continue to fall, with most yields at or close to multi‐year lows (see table). Pre‐positioning for the potential of ECB QE is helping to suppress yields, which will begin to paint the central bank into a corner. We expect EUR to trend lower in 2015; however warn that this week it could fall victim to liquidity constraints and holiday positioning flows.”

“EURUSD short‐term technicals: bearish—Most technical studies warn of EUR downside risk, warning that EUR is likely to break to fresh lows. We are biased to be short, looking for fresh EUR lows in the near‐term.”






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Dec 22, 2014
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USD/JPY starts week close to 120 – MP



FXStreet (Barcelona) - Kenny Fisher, Currency Analyst at MarketPulse shares that the USD/JPY pair trades steady on the start of the week following a week of sharp losses, close to the 120 line after it broke the resistance at 119.83 levels.

Key Quotes

“USD/JPY is steady on Monday, following a week of sharp losses for the wobbly Japanese yen. USD/JPY is trading close to the 120 line late in the European session.”

“On the release front, it’s a very quiet start to the week, with just two releases. In Japan, the BOJ released its monthly report, a minor event. Over in the US, we’ll get a look at Existing Home Sales. The markets are expecting the indicator to soften in November, with an estimate of 5.21 million.”

“Prime Minister Shinzo Abe won a convincing electoral victory last week, but he will have little time to savor the win as he grapples with a struggling economy. Growth and inflation remain well below the government’s target and the BoJ’s radical monetary easing scheme has ravaged the yen, which remains close to the 120 level.”

“With the BOJ expected to maintain or even ease its monetary stance, we’re unlikely to see much improvement from the Japanese currency in the near future”

“USD/JPY edged higher in the Asian session. The pair has been steady in European trade and broke above resistance at 119.83.”

“119.83 has reverted to a support role as the pair has posted slight gains.”

“120.63 is an immediate resistance line.”

“Current range: 119.83 to 120.63”






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Dec 22, 2014
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USD/JPY may test 121 in near-term – Scotiabank



FXStreet (Barcelona) - Camilla Sutton CFA, CMT, Chief FX Strategist at Scotiabank, anticipates the USD/JPY pair to test 121 levels in the near term as technicals point towards a building upside momentum.

Key Quotes

“USDJPY is flat, but seems to be adhering to last week’s upward trend. There were no major data releases today, however Japan is the only major who will release top tier data on Christmas Day, with CPI. Governor Kuroda’s comments were inline with previous ones, accordingly there was limited market reaction.”

“USDJPY short‐term technicals: mixed—however upside pressure and building momentum leave USDJPY upside risk as the core theme into the open."

"We’d expect a near‐term test of 121 and eventually fresh highs above the December 8th 121.85.”







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Dec 22, 2014
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EUR/GBP recovers ground after 4 days of losses



FXStreet (Córdoba) - The euro bounced off a 2-year low versus the dollar and edged higher against the pound and the yen as risk aversion eased across financial markets.

EUR/GBP is rising after four consecutive trading days of losses, having hit a daily high of 0.7858 in recent dealings. Liquidity remains low and the economic calendar is pretty light for the day offering little inspiration to currencies. Investors will be watching tomorrow’s UK GDP data release.

EUR/GBP levels to watch

At time of writing, EUR/GBP is trading at 0.7848, recording % gain on the day, and with immediate resistances lining up at 0.7900 (psychological level/20-day SMA) and 0.7925 (Dec 19 high). On the flip side, supports are seen at 0.7812 (Dec 19 low) and 0.7800 (psycological level) ahead of 0.7765 (2014 low Sep 30).





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Dec 22, 2014
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Bearish bets on the US 10-yr treasury reach a 4-year high - CFTC



FXStreet (Mumbai) - The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) released for the week ended Dec. 16 showed traders added to their overall bearish bets on the US 10-yr treasury notes, taking the cumulative bearish bets at a 4-year high.

For the week ended Dec. 16, the non-commercial futures contracts of the 10-year treasury notes, primarily traded by large speculators and hedge funds, totaled a net position of -258,250 contracts, which is a weekly decline of 56,915 contracts, from the previous week’s total of -201,335 net contracts. Contrary to the bearish bets on the treasuries, the yield on the 10-Year treasury note declined from 2.22% to 2.07% during the reporting period.

The rise in bearish bets may have been due to the widespread belief that the Federal Reserve (Fed) at its Dec. 17 meet, shall indicate a sooner-than-expected interest rate hike in the US. The 10-yr yield currently trades at 2.172%; marginally above the 5-DMA located at 2.17%.

10-yr Treasury yield Technical Levels

The yield has an immediate support located at 2.17% (5-DMA), under which losses could be extended to 2.136% (10-DMA). Meanwhile, resistance is seen at 2.20% and 2.225% respectively.






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Dec 22, 2014
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Brazilian senate report: Bitcoin isn't ready for regulation – CoinDesk



FXStreet (Barcelona) - CoinDesk Analysts share the Brazilian senate’s report which examines the need for regulating cryptocurrencies, further noting that the document suggests Bitcoin should not be regulated at the moment.

Key Quotes

“A new study commissioned for the Federal Senate of Brazil has sought to examine how the spread of bitcoin and other digital currencies could impact Brazil's economy, and whether formal regulation is necessary for the domestic industry.”

“Authored by Cesar Rodrigues van der Laan, a researcher at Banco Central do Brasil, the 18-page document concludes that Brazil should not immediately regulate bitcoin, arguing that there is not enough activity in local markets to warrant such rulemaking.”

“The paper goes on to highlight the varied response regulators have taken to bitcoin around the world, citing the stance taken by Russia, which has taken active steps to ban bitcoin, and the US, where state regulators are seeking to establish a framework for the industry.”

“Notably, the paper advocates that Brazil follow a similar path to the US, if and when it decides to introduce regulation for the industry”

“The statement marks the third time a major authority in Brazil has issued a statement on bitcoin this year, following Banco Central do Brasil's warning in February and an April decision by the Receita Federal, the country's tax authority, that it would treat digital currencies as financial assets.”

“Overall, the paper suggests that bitcoin may hold the most long-term promise as a cross-border payment system, though one that would require a regulatory framework at a later date.”




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Dec 22, 2014
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LME Inventory Update



FXStreet (Mumbai) - The warehouse stocks data released daily by the London Metal Exchange (LME) today showed a rise in the inventory levels of Copper and nickel, while the inventory levels of Lead, Zinc and aluminium declined.

Lead and zinc stocks decreased by 25 and 1225 tonnes respectively, while aluminium stocks witnessed another massive fall of 9925 tonnes. Meanwhile, copper stocks increased by 3525 tonnes and nickel inventory went up by 582 tonnes.




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Dec 23, 2014
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US GDP upward revised to 5 percent



FXStreet (London) - The final reading of US GDP, adjusted for price changes, increased at an annual rate of 5.0 percent in the third quarter of 2014, according to the "third" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, upwards revised from the second reading of 3.9 percent.

The GDP estimate released today is based on more complete source data than were available for the "second" estimate issued last month.

According to the BEA, the increase in real GDP in the third quarter primarily reflected positive contributions from PCE, non-residential fixed investment, federal government spending, exports, state and local government spending, and residential fixed investment. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, decreased.




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Dec 23, 2014
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USD/JPY extends gains on strong US GDP



FXStreet (Córdoba) - USD/JPY pushed a tad higher and printed fresh highs after the release of much better-than-expected US gross domestic product. However, a big miss in durable good orders tempered dollar’s rally.

USD/JPY extended intraday gains and hit its highest level since in two weeks at 120.47 so far. At time of writing, the pair is trading just below recent highs, recording a 0.35% increase Tuesday.

US data showed GDP grew at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.0% in the Q3, up from the Q2 growth rate of 4.6% and the strongest pace in 11 years. However, not all was good news, as durable goods orders fell 0.7% in November, missing by far expectations of a 1.8% gain.

USD/JPY technical levels

As for technical levels, immediate resistances are seen at 121.00 (psychological level) and 121.83 (2014 high Dec 8). On the flip side, supports could be found at 119.95 (daily low) and 119.30 (Dec 22 low).



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Dec 23, 2014
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EUR/USD breaks below 1.2200 after strong US GDP



FXStreet (Córdoba) - The dollar strengthened across the board and dragged EUR/USD below 1.2200 to fresh 2 ½-year lows after data showed US GDP growth at the strongest pace since Q3 2003.

US gross domestic product grew at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.0% in the Q3, marking the strongest pace in 11 years. However, durable goods orders fell 0.7% in November, missing by far expectations of a 1.8% gain.

EUR/USD broke below 1.2200 and stops were triggered, sending the pair quickly to its lowest level since August 2012 at 1.2182. At time of writing, the pair is trading at 1.2190, recording a 0.32% loss on the day.

EUR/USD levels to watch

Immediate supports are now seen at 1.2167 (Aug 3 2012 low) and 1.2133 (Aug 2 2012 low). On the other hand, next resistances could be found at 1.2245 (daily high) and 1.2271 (Dec 22 high).



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Dec 23, 2014
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US Treasuries yields rise after strong GDP data



FXStreet (Mumbai) - The yields across the treasury market curve in the US shot higher after the stellar US third quarter GDP report raised hopes of a sooner-than-expected policy tightening in the US.

The commerce department in the US revised up its estimate of GDP growth to a 5% from the 3.9% reported in the last month, citing stronger consumer and business spending than it had previously factored in. This is the fastest growth since the third quarter of 2003.

The US 10-yr treasury yield now trades 2.6 basis points higher at 2.188%, while the 30-yr yield has gained 1.9 basis points to 2.768%. Meanwhile, at the short-end, the 2-yr yield is up 1.1 basis points to 0.728%, while the 3-yr yield is up 2.1 basis points to 1.129%.

Moreover, with the strong US GDP data, the probability of a sooner-than-expected policy normalization in 2015 increases; as stated by Federal Reserve (Fed) chair. Yellen in her press conference at the Dec. 17 meet.



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Dec 23, 2014
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US mortgage applications increase on lower rates


FXStreet (London) - Data released by the US Mortgage Bankers Association showed that mortgage applications increased in the week ending 19 December, with its index rising by 0.9 percent after falling 3.3 percent the previous week.

The increase in applications was helped by a decline in rates as the average 30-year fixed rate loan declined to a one-year low at 4.02 percent, down from 4.06 percent.



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Dec 24, 2014
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US Treasury yields extend post US GDP gains


FXStreet (Mumbai) - The yields across the short-end and the long-end of the treasury market curve extended gains today after recovering losses witnessed in the Asian session.

The yields have extended gains witnessed in the previous session after a surprisingly strong US third-quarter GDP report increased bets of sooner-than-expected interest rate hike in the US.

The 10-yr yields in the US rose 2.7 basis points to 2.284%, while the 30-yr yield is up 1 basis points to 2.861%. Moreover, the 10-yr yield had gained more than 10 basis points in the previous session to finish at 2.26%.

Meanwhile, at the short-end, the 2-year yield, a barometer of short-term interest rate expectations, continues to hover around the 3.5 year high of 0.747%. However, the 1-year yield has inched slightly lower to 0.242%.

The yield may continue to rise on bets of a sooner-than-expected interest rate hike as the markets lack fresh fundamental trigger as we move into the new year.



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Dec 24, 2014
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GBP/USD recovery falters, enters holiday lethargy


FXStreet (Córdoba) - The dollar has cut some of yesterday's gains versus major competitors and entered a consolidation phase Wednesday in extremely thin market conditions.

GBP/USD managed to recover from fresh 2014 lows sub-1.5500 but the bounce was capped by the 50-hour SMA confining the Cable to a phase of consolidation. At time of writing, the pair is trading at 1.5540, still up 0.16% on the day.

On Tuesday contrasting GDP figures in UK and US pushed GBP/USD to a fresh 16-month low of 1.5485.

US jobless claims declined to 280K from 289K the previous week and down from the 290K expected.

GBP/USD levels to watch

As for technical levels, next resistances are seen at 1.5555 (daily high), 1.5607 (Dec 23 high) and 1.5660 (21-day SMA). On the flip side, support could be found at 1.5485 (2014 low Dec 23) and 1.5462 (Aug 30 2013 low).




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Dec 24, 2014
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Strong weekly US jobs data pushed EUR/USD back below 1.22 levels


FXStreet (Mumbai) - The fourth consecutive decline in the US weekly jobless claims pushed the EUR/USD below 1.22 levels, after having clocked a high of 1.2220 ahead of the data.

The EUR/USD pair now trades 0.20% higher for the day at 1.2198 levels. The pair fell from the day’s high immediately after the labor department in the US reported the initial jobless claims for the past week at a 7-week low of seasonally adjusted 280,000. Moreover, the strong labor market data comes a day after the commerce department in the US confirmed US third quarter GDP at 5.0%.

EUR/USD Technical Levels

The pair has an immediate resistance located at 1.2220, above which another resistance is seen at 1.2247 levels. Meanwhile, support is seen at 1.2164 and 1.2132 levels.




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Dec 24, 2014
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USD/CAD shows signs of life, pushes higher


FXStreet (Córdoba) - USD/CAD is one of the few FX pairs showing signs of activity in extremely thin market conditions Wednesday, with the pair briefly falling to levels sub-1.1600 only to bounce back and erase daily losses.

USD/CAD climbed half a cent from daily lows and has even pushed to fresh daily highs at 1.1640 zone in recent dealings. At time of writing, USD/CAD is trading at 1.1637, recording a 0.20% gain on the day.

The loonie continues to trade near 5-year lows versus the greenback as oil resumes the fall after a short-lived correction. US government's Energy Information Administration reported inventories rose by 7.3 million barrels in the week ending Dec. 19, sending oil prices to fresh session lows.




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Dec 24, 2014
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NZD/USD remain in bearish territory


FXStreet (Guatemala) - NZD/USD is trading at 0.7721, up 0.19% on the day, having posted a daily high at 0.7739 and low at 0.7699.

NZD/USD has remained offered into the closes ahead of Christmas day. It’s the theme around the greenback that is leading the majors and dragging the Kiwi lower that had been supported previously by the NZ trade deficit that narrowed faster than expected in November from NZD -908 million to -213 million (vs. -575mn exp).

But the last run of US data took back those gains when the US GDP surprised in 3Q yesterday by 5% q/q annualized vs. 4.3% consensus and 3.9% previous. US 10-year yields are around 2.25% and towards three-week highs keeping the greenback bid. Below the 21-dma & Ichimoku conversion line (0.7775/76) NZD/USD remains offered into the New Year.




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Dec 24, 2014
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EUR/USD downside pressure mounting


FXStreet (Guatemala) - EUR/USD is trading at 1.2190, up 0.15% on the day, having posted a daily high at 1.2221 and low at 1.2167.

Us yields have sky rocketed due to the robustness in US data in the form of the GDP and highest growth since 2003. Analysts at TD Securities noted that the US 2-year bond yields at 0.73/0.74% reflect the highest returns at this point on the curve since 2011 and the widest (most USD-supportive) EZ-US spreads since early 2007; “This helped push the EUR/USD exchange rate to the lowest in two years”.

“Contrasting growth and policy prospects keep EURUSD on track for a retest of the 2012 EZ Sovereign crisis low of 1.2047 sooner rather than later but we rather suspect that the contrasting EZ-US growth and policy outlooks means that there is substantially more downside risk for EUR/USD than that in the months ahead. Look to sell modest EUR/USD rallies from here”.




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Dec 24, 2014
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US Treasury yields extend post US GDP gains


FXStreet (Mumbai) - The yields across the short-end and the long-end of the treasury market curve extended gains today after recovering losses witnessed in the Asian session.

The yields have extended gains witnessed in the previous session after a surprisingly strong US third-quarter GDP report increased bets of sooner-than-expected interest rate hike in the US.

The 10-yr yields in the US rose 2.7 basis points to 2.284%, while the 30-yr yield is up 1 basis points to 2.861%. Moreover, the 10-yr yield had gained more than 10 basis points in the previous session to finish at 2.26%.

Meanwhile, at the short-end, the 2-year yield, a barometer of short-term interest rate expectations, continues to hover around the 3.5 year high of 0.747%. However, the 1-year yield has inched slightly lower to 0.242%.

The yield may continue to rise on bets of a sooner-than-expected interest rate hike as the markets lack fresh fundamental trigger as we move into the new year.




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Dec 25, 2014
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Strong weekly US jobs data pushed EUR/USD back below 1.22 levels


FXStreet (Mumbai) - The fourth consecutive decline in the US weekly jobless claims pushed the EUR/USD below 1.22 levels, after having clocked a high of 1.2220 ahead of the data.

The EUR/USD pair now trades 0.20% higher for the day at 1.2198 levels. The pair fell from the days high immediately after the labor department in the US reported the initial jobless claims for the past week at a 7-week low of seasonally adjusted 280,000. Moreover, the strong labor market data comes a day after the commerce department in the US confirmed US third quarter GDP at 5.0%.

EUR/USD Technical Levels

The pair has an immediate resistance located at 1.2220, above which another resistance is seen at 1.2247 levels. Meanwhile, support is seen at 1.2164 and 1.2132 levels.





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Dec 25, 2014
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Another Doji on the daily charts for EUR/AUD


FXStreet (Mumbai) - The EUR/AUD pair is on its way to witness a second consecutive Doji candle on its daily chart, as the pair hovers largely unchanged for the day.

The pair currently trades at 1.5040, compared to the previous sessions close of 1.5033. The pair has swung on both sides and is likely to settle largely unchanged for the day, similar to the moves witnessed on Tuesday, The gains were capped after a strong weekly jobless data in the US pushed the EUR/USD back below 1.22 levels, thereby erasing gains in the EUR/AUD cross. Meanwhile, the AUD/USD has inched marginally higher by 0.13%, which further capped gains in the EUR/AUD pair.

EUR/AUD Technical Levels

The immediate resistance is seen at 1.5062 and 1.5082 (10-DMA). Meanwhile, support is seen at 1.4989 and 1.4978 levels.





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Dec 25, 2014
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GBP/USD firming up into the close



FXStreet (Guatemala) - GBP/USD is trading at 1.5552, up 0.30% on the day, having posted a daily high at 1.5559 and low at 1.5500.

GBP/USD has risen back to the support of the 1.5540 level that was broken yesterday when the pair broke down through the 1.56 handle again. US yields improved on the back of the US data flows of this week.

We started out with the Q3 GDP offering the highest growth since 2003. Today we had the fourth consecutive decline in the US weekly jobless claims. This has underpinned the positive outlook for 2015 in the US. In the UK, growth continues to be disappointing. Technically, support lies at 1.5486, while resistance lies at recent congestion of 1.5590.




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Dec 26, 2014
OctaFX.Com News Updates





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Wall street closing: Merry Christmas from Wall Street



FXStreet (Guatemala) - As we close for Christmas, Stocks on Wall Street erased the gains in the last moments of the markets this week.

This put an end to a five-day run of gains in the Dow that crossed above 18,000 for the first time. The S&P 500 ended up at 2,081 falling to just 0.2%.

The US data of late has been the instigator for a positive end to the year while stocks have been supported on the Fed and their intentions for 2015. The focus from here will remain with the Fed and timings of a rate hike in the US while geopolitical tensions may be a risk that we will remain cautious around.





OctaFX.Com - Please click here to see Financial News/Forex News on OctaFx official pageonnes.


Dec 26, 2014
OctaFX.Com News Updates





oie_EgQvfWMuiI6O_zps5c35ec25.gif

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N Farid,

OctaFx Support Team!

[email protected] | +32 2792 4855

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