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[OctaFX_Farid]

GBP/USD falls further after upbeat US GDP


FXStreet (San Francisco) - The Pound is falling faster against the US Dollar as the pair is enjoying favorable environment for the greenback after a US GDP's revision upwards to 3.9% from the previously informed of 3.5%.

The GBP/USD is extending its decline from 1.5695 and after falling 40 pips it is now testing daily lows at 1.5650. Currently, GBP/USD is trading at 1.5656, down 0.31% on the day, having posted a daily high at 1.5710 and low at 1.5649.

The FXStreet OB/OS Index is reflecting neutral hourly conditions, while the FXStreet Trend Index is slightly bearish.

GBP/USD levels

Below 1.5650, next supports are at 1.5630 and 1.5600. To the upside, resistances are at 1.5670, 1.5700 and 1.5715.




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Nov 25, 2014
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[OctaFX_Farid]

Canadian retail sales stronger than expected


FXStreet (London) - Canadian retail sales rose 0.8 percent in September to CAD42.8bn, largely as a result of higher sales at motor vehicle and parts dealers. Retail sales have been on an upward swing since early 2014.

Retail sales exceeded consensus expectations of a 0.5 percent gain.

According to the report from Statistics Canada, gains were reported in 5 of 11 subsectors, representing 59 percent of retail trade. Excluding motor vehicle and parts dealers, sales were essentially unchanged from August.

After removing the effects of price changes, retail sales in volume terms increased 1.0 percent.

The statistical agency reported that a 3.4 percent increase at motor vehicle and parts dealers was the largest sales gain among all subsectors. Sales were up 3.3 percent at new car dealers, on the strength of higher volumes of sales of light trucks. Other motor vehicle dealers, which include retailers of recreational vehicles, motorcycles and boats, continued their recovery from a downturn in early 2014 with a 6.8 percent increase.




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Nov 25, 2014
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[OctaFX_Farid]

EUR/USD falls to test 1.2400 after US GDP


FXStreet (Córdoba) - EUR/USD dropped to fresh daily lows as the dollar strengthened on the back of better-than-expected Q3 US GDP.

US GDP growth was upwardly revised to 3.9% in the third quarter, up from the preliminary reading of 3.5% and beating expectations of 3.3%. EUR/USD was dragged lower but it has managed to hold above the 1.2400 level so far. At time of writing, the pair is trading at 1.2407, recording a % loss on the day.

EUR/USD levels to watch

In terms of technical levels, if 1.2400 gives up, next supports could be found at 1.2357 (2014 low Nov 7) and 1.2341 (Aug 21 2012 low). On the flip side, resistances are seen at 1.2475 (10-day SMA), 1.2500 (pychologicallevel) and 1.2567 (Nov 21 low).




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Nov 25, 2014
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[OctaFX_Farid]

US 3Q14 GDP surprises on the upside - 3.9% vs initial 3.5% print – ING


FXStreet (Barcelona) - Rob Carnell of ING notes 3Q14 US GDP was expected by most analysts to be revised slightly lower following its initial 3.5% release, and following slightly less supportive trade data released after the initial GDP number, but GDP has actually been revised higher to 3.9%.

Key Quotes

“Some of the factors supporting this upward revision are quite encouraging - for instance, the upwards revision to equipment and software spending (business investment, now 10.7% from 7.2% initially), and personal consumption (consumer spending now 2.2% from 1.8%), and residential investment (homebuilding - now 2.7% from 1.8%).”

“There was, as expected, a slight additional drag from the net export sector, worth about $20bn over the quarter (annualised rate). And this more than offset the further increase in inventory building (revised up about $16bn) over the same period.”

“Whilst some parts of this release do suggest that the US economy has more momentum than initially indicated, both inventories and the defence component of government spending are likely to revert to being considerable drags in the fourth quarter, taking GDP growth closer to 2.0% than 3.0%, and the profile for GDP will remain very choppy, masking an underlying growth rate of between 2.5% and 3.0%.”

“At the margin, these figures make it easier for the Fed to move towards pushing rates higher next year. But a lot can happen between now and the April 2015 rate hike the market is pricing in, including much weaker inflation and a possible re-run of the 2013 government shutdown, and we are taking nothing for granted.”




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Nov 25, 2014
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[OctaFX_Farid]

Minutes suggest large divergence between BoJ members – Scotiabank


FXStreet (Barcelona) - Camilla Sutton CFA, CMT, Chief FX Strategist at Scotiabank, notes that the BoJ meeting minutes suggest there is large divergence between members but that lower oil and soft demand pushed BoJ to act.

Key Quotes

“Initially JPY weakened on the release of the BoJ minutes; however subsequent comments by Governor Kuroda, that inflation is likely to reach 2% by the beginning of the next fiscal year, forced a retracement.”

“The minutes from the October 31 BoJ meeting (where the committee increased the annual expansion in the monetary base to ¥80trn) suggest that: 1)There is wide divergence in views at the BoJ; and 2) the impetus for more accommodative policy was the decline in oil prices combined with weaker demand following the consumption tax, which risked returning Japan to a deflationary mindset.”

“In our view BoJ policies are supporting a rise in USDJPY, combined with last week’s PBoC announcement, it highlights building pressure in the region from a currency perspective.”

“USDJPY short‐term technicals: bullish—technicals support a rising USDJPY, with the slowing in the upward trend likely a temporary period of rest.”

“Support lies at last Wednesday's open of 116.86 while resistance comes in at the recent high of 118.98.”




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Nov 25, 2014
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[OctaFX_Farid]

GBP/USD eases within range – FXStreet


FXStreet (Barcelona) - Valeria Bednarik, Chief Analyst at FXStreet, notes that GBP/USD pair eases within range after another round of BOE’s inflation hearings brought nothing new to the table.

Key Quotes

“Technically, the 1 hour chart shows price extending below a bearish 20 SMA while indicators head south into negative territory.”

“In the 4 hours chart the technical picture is neutral to bearish, with price moving back and forth around a flat 20 SMA as indicators enter negative territory.”

“Price needs to break below 1.5620 to confirm further declines, expecting them a break to fresh year lows near the 1.5550 price zone.”




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Nov 25, 2014
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[OctaFX_Farid]

AUD/NZD fall below 1.0900, 4-month low


FXStreet (Córdoba) - The aussie accelerated the decline versus the kiwi and reached the lowest price since July after losing a key support level. AUD/NZD dropped below 1.0905 and accelerated to the downside. So far the pair bottomed at 1.0826 but remains under pressure, testing the lows.

The pair is having the worst performance in months, losing almost a hundred pips and is headed toward the seventh daily loss out of the last eight trading days.

AUD/NZD under 1.0900 - 1.0920

Yesterday the pair closed slightly below 1.0920 and today broke decisively the 1.0900 area, dropping below a long term support level; and extended the retreated after finding resistance around 1.1300 at the beginning of the month.



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Nov 26, 2014
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[OctaFX_Farid]

Chicago ISM manufacturing index declines led by weaker new orders


FXStreet (London) - The ISM-Chicago business barometer index decreased to 60.8 in November, down from 66.2 in October and lower than the consensus estimate for a decline to 63 after October's one-year high.

The report highlighted a slowdown in business expansion as well as a slowing in the rate of growth in orders, factory employment and production. The biggest decline came from new orders which decreased by 11.7 points to 61.9 in November having increased sharply to a one year high in October. Overall orders remain firm and barring a sharp fall in December are likely to record firmer growth in Q4 than Q3.



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Nov 26, 2014
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[OctaFX_Farid]

United States New Home Sales (MoM) came in at 0.458M below forecasts (0.472M) in October


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Nov 26, 2014
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[OctaFX_Farid]

AUD/JPY hovering around 100.00


FXStreet (Córdoba) - AUD/JPY dropped during the European session to 99.90, falling below 100.00 for the first time in two weeks, but then rebounded modestly. The recovery from the lows found resistance at 100.30.

AUD/JPY under pressure

As the yen recovers across the board after falling sharply last week, the aussie is the opposite and today, again, is the worst performer in the market, among the most traded currencies.

AUD/JPY is hovering around 100.00, falling for the third day in a row and trading more than 250 pips below the level it had at the beginning of the week.


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Nov 26, 2014
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[OctaFX_Farid]

US pending home sales slow in October


FXStreet (London) - The Pending Home Sales Index, produced by the National Association of Realtors, decreased 1.1 percent to 104.1 in October from an upwardly-revised 105.3 in September, but is 2.2 percent higher than October 2013 (101.9).

The index is above 100—considered an average level of contract activity—for the sixth consecutive month.

The median existing-home price for all housing types in October was USD208,300, up 5.5 percent on October 2013. Monthly median price growth has averaged 5.8 percent in 2014 (through October) after averaging 11.5 percent last year.

Lawrence Yun NAR chief economist, says despite October's modest decline, contract signings have remained at a healthy pace now for six straight months. “In addition to low interest rates, buyers entering the market this autumn are being lured by the increase in homes for sale and less competition from investors paying in cash,” he said. “Demand is holding steady but would be more robust if it weren't for lagging wage growth and tight credit conditions that continue to hamper those individuals looking for relief from rising rents.”



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Nov 26, 2014
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[OctaFX_Farid]

US new home sales increase at slower rate than expectations



FXStreet (London) - Sales of new single-family houses in October 2014 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 458,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development. This is 0.7 percent above the revised September rate of 455,000 and is 1.8 percent above the October 2013 estimate of 450,000.
Despite the increases, gains fell below the levels markets expected.

The median sales price of new houses sold in October 2014 was USD305,000; the average sales price was USD401,100



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Nov 26, 2014
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[OctaFX_Farid]

AUD/USD opening up the downside with minor recovery



FXStreet (Guatemala) - AUD/USD is trading at 0.8529, down -0.01% on the day, having posted a daily high at 0.8568 and low at 0.8480.

AUD/USD has started to recover from the lows at 0.8480 and back onto the 0.85 handle, albeit someway off from a full recovery and remains well into negative territory contained by the descending trend and resistance line.

Iron ore prices were the catalyst for the continuation through the 0.8540 key support earlier this week along with RBA officials again jawboning for a lower value in the Aussie when deputy governor Lowe’s speech was received.

More to date, AUD/USD was sold off in London at 0.8560 and taking out 0.85 stops along the way down to the lows with more EUR/AUD demand that rallied from 1.4560 to 1.4700 and through the 1.4650 highs with stops triggered and then settling back to 1.4640 on Constancio, the vice president of the ECB’s and hos comments. He went to underline the ECB’s desire to be ready to add more stimulus if needed. Constancio suggested that the ECB will consider buying sovereign debt next quarter. This coupled with President Mario Draghi last week vowing to revive inflation “as fast as possible" adds support to the Aussie in respect of the implications of extra liquidity in the market and demand for higher yielders.

In the US session so far, durable goods stands out as the only positive element to the US calendar but has been overshadowed by an array of negative results in a packed day ahead of thin holiday Thanks Giving markets to come. Karen Jones, chief analyst at Commerzbank, suggested that intraday rallies are indicated to terminate 0.8585/0.8605 in AUD/USD. should the downside persist, we are looking at the base of the three year channel at 0.8400 for key support.



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Nov 26, 2014
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[OctaFX_Farid]

AUD: prizes for jawboning? - Rabobank



FXStreet (Guatemala) - Jane Foley, Senior Currency Strategist at Rabobank, noted the strength of the AUD and the RBA’s recent jawboning.

Key Quotes:

“Lowe last night referred to the level of the AUD exchange rate as being “unusually high”".

"He dismissed concerns about the high level of wages in Australia as really being a function of AUD strength by remarking that “the overall level of wages in Australia are, to some extent, really concerns about the exchange rate, with the high exchange rate leading to high wages expressed in foreign currency terms””.

“Bearing in mind that the RBA’s Kent in the middle of the month remarked that the RBA hadn’t ruled out FX intervention, the RBA appear to be stepping up the pace of verbal intervention, and it is not difficult to understand why”.

“According to the OECD’s measurement of purchasing power parity, the AUD is overvalued against most other developed world currencies (the CHF being the clear exception)”.

“In recent years, China has moved ahead to become Australia’s largest trading partner, but Japan remains in second place”.

“Since the middle of October the AUD/JPY exchange rate has pushed up by almost 9%. This has helped push Australia’s effective exchange rate higher – a move which is unlikely to have been welcomed by neither Australian exporters nor the RBA”.

“In normal circumstances a central bank may consider cutting interest rates to lend its economy support and undercut the outlook for its currency.

“Faced with pressure to curtail mounting levels of household debt, the RBA does not currently appear to be in a position to cut interest rates”.

“Like many other central banks faced with little room for manoeuvre on interest rate policy, it seems the value of the currency has become an increasingly important variable in determining monetary conditions.

“For the RBA, it is not the only central banks actively seeking or appearing to be seeking a softer exchange rate. The SNB, BoJ, ECB and RBNZ are all clear players in the same game”.


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Nov 26, 2014
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[OctaFX_Farid]

United States EIA Natural Gas Storage change below forecasts (-145B) in November 21: Actual (-162B)



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Nov 26, 2014
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[OctaFX_Farid]

Gold trades steady in EUR terms



FXStreet (Mumbai) - Gold prices remain well supported in the EUR terms as investors are convinced that the European Central Bank (ECB) would expand its monetary stimulus to include sovereign bond purchases.

Gold in EUR terms or XAU/EUR traded largely unchanged at 957.54 levels, after having recovered from the low of 948.16 hit earlier today. Prices recovered after the ECB President Mario Draghi reiterated that the policy makers are ready to do more if the inflation and growth continues to decline in the Eurozone. He also said that he expects the banks balance sheet to expand to 2012 levels. Gold, known to have a direct relationship with a balance sheet size of the central bank, erased gains to trade on a flat note.

Meanwhile, the metal shrugged-off the strong German data, which showed the unemployment rate at a record low of 6.6% in November.

Gold (EUR) Technical Levels

The metal has an immediate resistance located at 966.66, above which gains could be extended to 973.62 levels. Meanwhile, support is seen at 952.80 and 948.16


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Nov 27, 2014
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[OctaFX_Farid]

AUD/JPY finds resistance at 101.00



FXStreet (Córdoba) - AUD/JPY rose further during the Asian session and reached at 101.04, the highest price in two days but failed to hold above 101.00 and pulled back.

The decline found support at 100.54, where an hourly uptrend line stands. A break lower could weaken the aussie and expose daily lows that lie at 100.30. Currently trades at 100.65, at the same level it closed yesterday.

AUD up after data

The aussie, supported by economic data from Australia (increase in new home sales and private capital expenditure) is among the best performers across the board, despite trimming gains during the last hours.


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Nov 27, 2014
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[OctaFX_Farid]

Deutsche Bank exits physical metals trading



FXStreet (Barcelona) - The Europe’s biggest investment bank decided to exit physical metals trading in face of declining revenues and the necessity to hold buffer capital as per new regulations.

Deutsche Bank did announce an exit from the physical trading of gold, silver, platinum and palladium, although the bank would continue to trade derivatives linked to the precious metals. The bank also announced an end to trading in credit-default swaps linked to individual companies due to stricter regulations.

Moreover, regulators are forcing banks to hold more capital to avoid bailouts funded by taxpayer money. Earlier this year, Barclays, Credit Suisse and JPMorgan Chase scaled back their commodity business.

JPMorgan Chase’s physical commodity unit was bought by Mercuria, a ten-year-old firm based in Switzerland that started out trading oil but now owns (or has joint ventures with) oil-exploration companies, oil-terminal and pipeline operators, coal and iron-ore mines and biofuel refineries.



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Nov 27, 2014
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[OctaFX_Farid]

Eurozone unemployment holds at 11.5 percent



FXStreet (London) - Eurozone unemployment held at 11.5 percent in October, level with the September print, according to Eurostat.

The 28-member European Union unemployment rate was 10.0 percent in October 2014, also stable compared with September 2014 and down from 10.7 percent in October 2013,

Compared with September 2014, the number of persons unemployed increased by 42 000 in the European Union and by 60 000 in the Eurozone. Compared with October 2013, unemployment fell by 1.549 million in the EU and by 547 000 in the Eurozone.



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Nov 28, 2014
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[OctaFX_Farid]

FTSE declines as Energy stocks fall



FXStreet (Mumbai) - The London’s FTSE index is being driven lower today by a fall in the Energy stocks after Crude Oil prices fell to fresh four-year lows.

The Ftse traded 0.65% lower at 9929.30 levels at the time of writing. The index breadth is negative with an advance-decline ratio of 45:53. The Oil and Gas index is down by 4.29%, while the Oil Equipments Services and Distributions index is down 5.28%. Among the index stocks, shares in multinational oil and gas company BG group fell 8.11%, followed by shares in Weir group, which declined 6.84%. Tullow Oil lost 5.41%, while BP’s share price and Royal Dutch Shell B.’s share price declined 3.5% each. Meanwhile, on the plus side are stocks like Vodafone Group PLC, Kingfisher, Easyjet and Rio Tinto.

Moreover, the shares in energy companies have taken a beating across the globe since Crude prices hit fresh four-year lows after the OPEC group decided to keep the production levels unchanged at 3 million barrels per day.

Ftse Technical Levels

The index has an immediate support located at 6641 levels, under which prices may fall to 6600 levels. On the flip side, a breach of resistance located at 6731 levels, shall open doors for a re-test of 6765 levels.




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Nov 28, 2014
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[OctaFX_Farid]

Japan data was the headline driver in Asia – DB



FXStreet (Barcelona) - The Deutsche Bank Research Team, note that Japan seems to be the main headline driver in Asia this morning following a host of mixed data releases.

Key Quotes

“Starting with retail sales, the print came in at a disappointing -1.4% mom (vs. -0.5% expected), although this appears to be somewhat offset by a better industrial production reading (+0.2% mom vs. -0.6% mom expected) and slight drop in the jobless rate to +3.5% from +3.6% previously, matching the 17yr low seen in August and May. “

“In terms of inflation, CPI (ex food) slipped to +2.9% yoy, marking a third consecutive monthly decline whilst stripping out the effect of the sales tax showed a fairly subdued +0.9% core print.”

“In fact, staying on Japan, 2y JGB’s dropped below zero for the first time ever this morning ahead of today’s auction. As we type, the notes are trading at -0.002% - matching only Germany, Sweden, Netherlands, Denmark, Finland and Switzerland with similar duration bonds trading with a negative yield.”





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Nov 28, 2014
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[OctaFX_Farid]

Weak Eurozone data adds pressure on ECB



FXStreet (London) - This morning’s European data will increase the pressure on European Central Bank policymakers ahead of the bank’s meeting next week.

Figures from Eurostat showed that Eurozone consumer prices declined to 0.3 percent in November, down from 0.4 percent, with disinflationary pressure coming from declining oil prices and weakening demand.

The latest inflation numbers are a long way from the 2 percent ECB target of 2 percent – a level not seen since early 2013 when crude prices were more than 17 percent higher than today.

In addition to the weak inflation numbers, Eurozone unemployment levels remained at 11.5 percent in October with youth unemployment at 21.6 percent.





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Nov 28, 2014
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[OctaFX_Farid]

AUD/USD advances beyond 0.8500



FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The Aussie dollar is now extending its rebound from multi-year lows near 0.8490 vs. the US dollar, lifting AUD/USD back to the 0.8515/20 area.

AUD/USD weaker ahead of RBA

The offered tone remains intact around AUD, with spot navigating the current leg lower sparked after November tops in the boundaries of 0.8800 the figure. Next of note in Australia will be the RBA monetary policy meeting due on Tuesday. Although expectations point to a neutral tone from Governor Stevens, traders will closely follow the statement, especially in light of the recent CapEx figures. Jane Foley, Senior Currency Strategist at Rabobank, commented, “Given our view that the USD has embarked on a long term recovery, we see AUD/USD edging lower on a long term view. However, we see risk of a short-covering rally in AUD/USD near-term with a view that AUD/USD will edge down towards 0.84 on a 12 mth view”

AUD/USD key levels

At the moment the pair is losing 0.37% at 0.8518 and a breakdown of 0.8480 (low Nov.26) would expose 0.8450 (low Jul.7 2010) and then 0.8315 (low Jul.1 2010). On the other hand, the initial hurdle aligns at 0.8619 (high Nov.25) ahead of 0.8648 (10-d MA) and finally 0.8673 (21-d MA).




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Nov 28, 2014
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[OctaFX_Farid]

United Kingdom Net Lending to Individuals (MoM) declined to £2.6B in October from previous £2.7B



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Dec 01, 2014
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[OctaFX_Farid]

UK manufacturing PMI climbs to four-month high in November


FXStreet (Mumbai) - The UK Manufacturing Purchasing Manager’s Index came-in at a four-month high of 53.5 in November, compared to October’s 53.2 and higher than the preliminary reading of 53.00.

The upturn in the manufacturing activity was supported by solid domestic order inflows, which offset subdues trend in new export orders. Meanwhile, Manufacturing employment increased for the nineteenth consecutive month in November, with the rate of job creation reaching four-month high.

Price pressures remained weak in November. The average input prices declined for the third straight month, while the average output prices rose marginally.




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Dec 01, 2014
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