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NOK slumps, dragged by oil prices




FXStreet (Córdoba) - The Norwegian krone is among the worst performers in the FX market given its high exposure to oil prices, which continue to fall.

Both Brent and crude oil prices are about 2% down on the day, with the latter having scored a low of $75.90, last seen October 2011. Saudi Arabia cut its prices Monday for oil sold in December in the US, triggering the sell-off. Oil prices are down about 25% from mid-June highs.

EUR/NOK has risen over 130 pips, or 1.59%, throughout the day and reached its highest level since September 2009 at 8.6226 in recent dealings. Meanwhile, USD/NOK gained nearly 1.5% and reached a 5 ½-year peak of 6.8916.



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AUD/NZD hovering around 1.1240




FXStreet (Córdoba) - AUD/NZD remains flat on Tuesday after RBA decision and ahead of key economic data from New Zealand.

The pair bottomed during the Asian session after economic numbers from Australia and the RBA statement at 1.1207, reaching the lowest price since last Friday but then bounced to the upside and printed a daily high on European hours at 1.1272.

AUD/NZD technical outlook

In the short term the pair remains moving sideways, in a range between 1.1210 and 1.1270; with a bias that favors the aussie. But the area around 1.1300 has become a key resistance.

After Wall Street closing bell the NZ employment report will be release and is likely to impact in the kiwi. Weak numbers could push the pair to test 1.1300 while to the downside, 1.1190 - 1.1200 is an important support area to consider if employment figures surpass expectations.



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Silver trades below USD 16.00




FXStreet (Mumbai) - Silver prices have failed to sustain gains above USD 16.00 levels, after ending the previous session at USD 16.20/Oz levels.

Silver is trading 1.62% lower at USD 15.938/Oz levels today, after having struggled repeatedly around USD 16.20 levels. The recovery seen yesterday may have been driven by a bout of profit booking on the short positions. Moreover, Silver is down 16% on the year, while the recent slump has been more than the one witnessed in the Gold prices. A sharp rise in the US Dollar index has pressurized the precious metals pack.

Meanwhile, Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) data for the week ended Oct. 28 revealed that the money-managers boosted their net-short in silver, pushing it to the highest level since June 3. Their bearish position now stands at 10,321 contracts. The large speculators cut 251 gross longs and added 1,434 gross shorts. Elsewhere, non-commercials added 135 gross longs and 1,638 gross shorts, making them net-short 98 contracts.

Silver Technical levels

Silver has an immediate support at 15.887, under which the prices can fall to 15.74 levels. On the other hand, resistance is seen at 16.14 and 16.20 levels.



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Silver trades below USD 16.00




FXStreet (Mumbai) - Silver prices have failed to sustain gains above USD 16.00 levels, after ending the previous session at USD 16.20/Oz levels.

Silver is trading 1.62% lower at USD 15.938/Oz levels today, after having struggled repeatedly around USD 16.20 levels. The recovery seen yesterday may have been driven by a bout of profit booking on the short positions. Moreover, Silver is down 16% on the year, while the recent slump has been more than the one witnessed in the Gold prices. A sharp rise in the US Dollar index has pressurized the precious metals pack.

Meanwhile, Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) data for the week ended Oct. 28 revealed that the money-managers boosted their net-short in silver, pushing it to the highest level since June 3. Their bearish position now stands at 10,321 contracts. The large speculators cut 251 gross longs and added 1,434 gross shorts. Elsewhere, non-commercials added 135 gross longs and 1,638 gross shorts, making them net-short 98 contracts.

Silver Technical levels

Silver has an immediate support at 15.887, under which the prices can fall to 15.74 levels. On the other hand, resistance is seen at 16.14 and 16.20 levels.



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USD/JPY attempts to trades above 113.50, but rejected




FXStreet (San Francisco) - After a brief period of consolidation in between 113.15 and 113.50, USD/JPY accelerated to return above 113.50 and testing daily highs at 113.75; however, pair received a rejection of this level and now it is below the 113.50 again.

Currently, USD/JPY is trading at 113.41, down -0.31% on the day, having posted a daily high at 114.08 and low at 113.17. USD/JPY spot is in neutral territory according to the hourly FXStreet OB/OS Index, while the FXStreet Trend Index is slightly bullish.

USD/JPY sentiment

"The pair has still an unfilled gap at 112.30 yet seems chances of a turn towards the level are limited," Valeri Bednarik from FXStreet comments. "Above 113.90 on the other hand, the pair will likely advance towards fresh highs year highs around 114.50/60."

In the short term, with a successful break above 113.50, the USD/JPY will find resistances at 113.75, 114.00 and 114.20. To the downside, supports are at 113.30, 113.15 and 113.00.




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AUD/USD retreats form 0.8750




FXStreet (Córdoba) - Despite the decline of the US dollar against European currencies, AUD/USD retreat during the American session, trimming gains.

The pair bottomed during the Asian session at 0.8644 and then rose sharply. The recovery was capped by 0.8750 and then pulled back. Recently the pair printed a fresh session low at 0.8710 and currently trades at 0.8720/25, up 0.33% for the day.

Earlier the retail sales report from Australia showed an increase of 1.2% surpassing expectations while export and imports also rose above expectations. Afterwards the central bank left rates unchanged as expected.





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USD/CHF climbs to 0.9650




FXStreet (Córdoba) - USD/CHF erased most of yesterday losses during the last five hours and climbed to 0.9650, reaching a fresh daily high, slightly below the price it had at the beginning of the week.

Greenback is rising across the board on Wednesday, after US elections and ahead of the ADP employment report. Despite falling against the US dollar the Swiss franc is the best performer among European currencies.

USD/CHF with support at 0.9575/80

The pair bottomed yesterday at 0.9578 and today during the Asian session approached the mentioned level that offered support again. Afterwards turned to the upside and climbed further on European horus.

Again USD/CHF has approached 2014 highs that lie barely below 0.9700. From current price (0.9635/38), immediate resistance lies at 0.9650/55 and above here at 0.9665 and then 0.9690 (Nov 3 high). To the downside, support might now lie at 0.9615 and below 0.9575 (Nov 4 low).




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Gold continues to fall




FXStreet (Mumbai) - Gold prices extend their slide ahead of the US session tracking broad based strength in the US Dollar and the strength in the US Equity futures.

Gold is trading 2.46% lower at USD 1139/Oz levels while the US Dollar Index has inched 0.58% higher to 87.67 levels. The S&P futures are trading 0.50% higher at 2015.45 levels. The yellow metal failed to find any support from a slight weakness in the European PMI indices, since the equities in the Europe remained resilient.

The yellow metal may dip further today if equities in the US rise further in anticipation of a more aggressive stimulus measure from the European Central Bank.

Gold Technical Levels

Gold has an immediate resistance at 1144, above which prices can re-test 1161 levels. Meanwhile, immediate support is seen at 1118 levels.




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USD/JPY hits fresh highs above 114.70 ahead of ADP




FXStreet (Córdoba) - USD/JPY continued to rise and reached a fresh 7-year high ahead of the release of employment data in US at 114.76. The pair remains near the highs as the US dollar climbs further across the board.

“The USD has recovered overnight, boosted not only by the strong outcome for the Republicans in yesterday’s election, but also by comments by BoJ’s Governor Kuroda, who has vowed to do whatever he can to achieve the BoJ’s 2% inflation target and noted that he sees no limit to the measures the central bank can take”, mentioned analysts from TD securities.

USD/JPY with data ahead

Volatility could persist over the coming hours. At 13:15 GMT the ADP employment report will be release and it could have an impact on the USD/JPY. The private payroll is expected to show an increase of 220.000; a larger number could boost the US dollar.




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A “dot hike” from the Fed on the cards? - BAML



FXStreet (Guatemala) - Ralph Axel, Rates Strategist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch notes the forthcoming consensus for the US jobs report in Nonfarm Payrolls could be a catalyst for a shift in sentiment around the feds first rate hike.

Key Quotes:

"A consensus or moderately below-consensus jobs report on Friday we believe can create an even greater divergence between the market and the Fed around the latter's expected tightening cycle”.

“While such a report would result in an unchanged market or even lower yields on a weaker report, it could cause the Fed to increase its dots in next month's dot plot - a "dot hike" - which given the very large discrepancy between the market and dots should be a substantial hawkish surprise for markets."

"The unemployment rate this Friday is the key number for the Fed, and we would view a 5.9% rate, which is the consensus, as providing a great opportunity to sell the front end of the rates market, preferably using EDZ6 euro/dollar contracts or 5y Treasuries, futures or swaps. If the unemployment rate drops to 5.8% or lower, especially with a weak nonfarm headline number, our conviction in this trade would increase materially


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Nickel inventory rises



FXStreet (Mumbai) - The daily inventory data released by the London Metal Exchange (LME) today showed a decline in the inventory levels of Aluminium, Lead, Copper and Zinc. Meanwhile, the data showed a rise in the inventory levels of Nickel.

Aluminium inventory declined by 9150 tonnes today, while Nickel inventory increased by 1104 tonnes. Copper inventory fell by 625 tonnes, while Zinc Inventory and Lead Inventory declined by 3300 tonnes and 1950 tonnes respectively.

Nickel prices are heading for a weekly loss on LME ahead of the report from China which may show export growth slowed down. Nickel slid as much as 0.7% while aluminum fell 0.6%.


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EUR/USD falls below 1.2500 on Draghi's comments on Thursday - BTMU



FXStreet (Łódź) - Derek Halpenny, European Head of Currency Strategy at the Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ remarks that following Mario Draghi's comments on the balance sheet size and hints on further easing EUR/USD dropped below the 1.2500 level.

Key Quotes

"The power of communication. For so long earlier this year, the ECB’s communication wasn’t having much impact but once action is taken by a central bank to back up its words, then communication can turn into a very powerful tool. And so it was yesterday with ECB President Draghi’s explicit comment on balance sheet size and clear hints on further easing pushing the EUR/USD rate well below the 1.2500 level that had been holding for a time."

"The explicit mention of the balance sheet going back to “2012 dimensions” also served the purpose of undermining the speculation fuelled by a market report that there were divisions within the ECB Council over President Draghi’s communication style, like communicating a balance sheet target when it was agreed not to. Not only did Draghi mention “2012 dimensions”, he made clear that referred to the time after the second LTRO when the balance sheet hit its EUR 3trn peak.0"

"In terms of what has changed, Draghi also intimated that the ECB staff forecasts next month will be lowered again – the current inflation forecasts for 2015 and 2016 are 1.1% and 1.4% respectively. The European Commission this week put inflation in those years at just 0.8% and 1.5%."

"So we are quite likely to see a notable change to the 2015 level although it is debatable whether the 2016 level will be changed. Apart from the fall in crude oil prices, there has not really been any dramatic change in economic conditions."

"Indeed, Italy and France have backed away from fiscal austerity, helping the growth outlook. Nonetheless, the change in inflation outlook appears the key factor for allowing Draghi to hint at further action by stating that the ECB Council has been “tasked with preparing further measures if needed”."

"Finally, from an FX perspective, our current EUR/USD forecasts were based on the assumption of no full-blown sovereign debt QE (1.1800 Q3 2015). That assumption is looking questionable at the moment and hence our forecasts may require downward revisions."

"Draghi did emphasise the widening monetary divergence ahead and with asset purchases set to continue for two years, EUR/USD will continue to fall. We are still not convinced of sovereign debt QE being unleashed in December and hence for now we will maintain our 1.2500 end-2014 target."


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GBP/USD ignored the disappointing Trade Balance



FXStreet (Moscow) - GBP/USD is still trading above 1.58 area practically ignoring the UK Trade Balance.

The pound has become immune to weaker-than-expected data, as just released Trade Balance was practically ignored by the currency. No wonder, given the series of disappointments from PMI releases, and the recent impressive sell-off of the pair. The yesterday’s Services PMI printed lowest level since May 2013, and it pushed the pair to 14-month low. The pair may take a pause for now waiting for the key US release to come, and if the American report proves to be better than expected, it may kill any hope for the pound sending it below 1.58 round number.

What are today’s key GBP/USD levels?

Today's central pivot point can be found at 1.5890, with support below at 1.5777, followed by 1.5719 and 1.5606 with resistance above at 1.5948, followed by 1.6061 and 1.6119. Hourly Moving Averages are mixed, with the 200SMA bearish at 1.6002, and the daily 20EMA bearish at 1.6041. Hourly RSI is bearish at 32.


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EUR/GBP extends recovery from weekly lows



FXStreet (Córdoba) - EUR/GBP pushed to fresh daily highs as the pound weakened on the back of weaker than expected UK trade balance data.

EUR/GBP extended its recovery from the 0.7800 area and touched a daily high of 0.7840 but lacked follow-through. At time of writing, the pair is trading at 0.7833, still up 0.25% on the day but virtually unchanged on the week.

The euro weakened Thursday and briefly dropped below 0.7800 versus the pound following ECB President dovish remarks. However, EUR/GBP found support at 0.7798, the same level it bottomed earlier this week.

EUR/GBP technical levels

On the upside, EUR/GBP could find immediate resistances at 0.7863 (Nov 5 & 6 highs), 0.7883/85 (Oct 31 high/20-day SMA) and 0.7900 (psychological level). On the downside, supports could be found at 0.7800/0.7798 (psychological level/Nov 3 & 6 lows), 0.7789 (Oct 2 low) and 0.7766 (2014 low Oct 1).

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NZD/USD rises to 0.7700



FXStreet (Córdoba) - The kiwi recovered ground during the European session and erased losses against the US dollar ahead of the US employment report. NZD/USD bottomed on Asian hours at 0.7659, the lowest price in two years and then rebounded.

Currently the pair is hovering around 0.7700, slightly higher for the day and moving with bullish momentum. Recently printed a fresh daily high at 0.7703.

NZD/USD outlook

The trend remains bearsih and the pair is still under pressure, trading near the lowest level since June 2012. In the short term, with the NFP report near, the pair managed to turner to the upside. Technical indicators favor the kiwi for the coming hours but employment numbers from the US are likely to increase volatility in the forex and define the next move.

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Strong NFP result expected in October - TD Securities



FXStreet (Łódź) - Annette Beacher, Head of Asia-Pacific Research at TD Securities expects anothe rmonth of robust US job gains in October.

Key quotes

"A number of indicators suggest another strong month for the US labour market, including strength in the employment subcomponents of the ISM surveys, cyclical lows in claims and better-than-expected ADP private payrolls."

"We are broadly in line with consensus in expecting 239k jobs created in October and the unemployment rate unchanged at 5.9%."

"We suspect that momentum spillover from Q3 to Q4 will continue to support job growth into year-end."


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USD/CAD rebounds from 1.1420



FXStreet (Edinburgh) - The greenback is trading on a softer tone vs. the CAD on Friday, pushing USD/CAD to visit the lower band of the range around 1.1420.

USD/CAD focus on US, Canada data

The upside bias continues to prevail in the pair, intensified after last Friday’s BoJ announcements of further easing measures in its monetary policy, boosting the US dollar to multi-year highs around 1.1470 (Wednesday). Ahead in the session US and Canadian labour market figures are due, with US Pyrolls pointing to an increase of 231K jobs in October while the Employment Change in Canada points to a decrease of 5.0K. “On the charts, though, the trend still looks very constructive, and a move towards 1.18 in the coming months appears as a distinct possibility. So, we would buy dips as they arise within a period of consolidation over the next couple of weeks”, observed Martin Schwerdtfeger, Strategist at TD Securities.

USD/CAD levels to consider

As of writing the pair is up 0.07% at 1.1435 with the next hurdle at 1.1466 (high Nov.5) ahead of 1.1497 (day uptrend channel) and then 1.1500 (psychological level). On the flip side, a breakdown of 1.1380 (low Nov.6) would aim for 1.1340 (low Nov.4) and finally 1.1300 (psychological level).


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AUD/USD remains capped by 0.8600


FXStreet (Córdoba) - AUD/USD managed to recover ground after hitting fresh multi-year lows during the Asian session, but the bounce has remained capped by the 0.8605 zone so far.

AUD/USD bottomed out at 0.8540, posting its lowest level since July 2010, and staged a mild recovery to a high of 0.8604 during the European session, although the pair lacked momentum as investors refrain from taking big positions ahead of the US nonfarm payrolls report. NFP forecast calls for a 231K gain in October after 248K the previous month, while the unemployment rate is expected to remain at 6.9%.

AUD/USD technical levels

At time of writing, AUD/USD is trading at 0.8595, 0.45% above its opening price, with immediate resistances seen at 0.8625 (Nov 6 high) and 0.8700 (psychological level), while supports are seen at 0.8540 (2014 low Nov 7) and 0.8500 (psychological level).


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Indian equities decline on profit booking


FXStreet (Mumbai) - Indian equity markets ended lower today as investors booked profits after the benchmark indices rose sharply to record high levels earlier this week.

The Sensex retreated 0.17% to 27868.63, compared to the previous session’s close of 27915.88. Among stocks, HDFC Bank fell most after the stock was removed from the MSCI India Index. Other losers include stocks like Hero MotoCorp Ltd, and Mahindra & Mahindra Ltd. HDFC Bank fell 1.5, while State Bank of India slid 1.4%.

Meanwhile, Motherson Sumi Systems Ltd. and Zee Entertainment Enterprises Ltd. advanced 0.5% and 4.8%, respectively, after MSCI said the two companies will be added to he MSCI India Index from the close of trading on Nov. 25.

The Foreign inflows continue to remain strong in the Indian markets. FIIs bought a net USD 170.5 million of local shares on Nov. 5, taking this year’s inflow to USD 14.4 billion.

Sensex Technical levels

The index has an immediate support at 27,791, under which prices can fall to 27,745 levels. Meanwhile, the index has a strong resistance located at 28,000.


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USD/CHF retreats but remains above 0.9700


FXStreet (Córdoba) - USD/CHF is falling modestly on Friday, ahead of the NFP report but still remains above 0.9700. Yesterday the pair posted the highest close since May 2013.

After Draghi’s press conference the pair jumped, breaking important short term resistance levels and peaked at 0.9737, new 2014 high. Afterwards the pair retreat modestly and continued to pullback on Friday, moving slowly on a clam trading day so far, as traders wait for US employment numbers. Recently printed a fresh daily low at 0.9704.

USD/CHF with strong weekly gains

To erase weekly gains, price would have to fall below 0.9630. It it does not happen, USD/CHF would post the third gain in a row and the second highest weekly close in two years.


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EUR/JPY weakens ahead of the ECB bond buying results





FXStreet (Mumbai) - The EUR/JPY pair is trading in the red as the markets await the European Central Bank (ECB) bond buying results for the last week. The pair has repeatedly lost steam around 142.80-143.00 levels, due to which the pair has moved lower towards 142.30 levels.

Moreover, the yen has strengthened against the US Dollar tracking the weakness in the US Treasury yields. The single currency appears exhausted as markets expect the Eurozone Sentix Inventor Confidence to have dipped to -13.8 in November. The EUR is also likely to stay weak as investors await the (ECB) bond buying results for the last week. The first week of the program saw a mere EUR 1.7 billion in uptake. The EUR/JPY pair may fall further today, if the ECB announces a sharp increase in the amount of bond buying program of the last week.

Meanwhile, a further fall in the benchmark bond yields across the Eurozone shall tilt the yield spreads in favor of the Yen.

EUR/JPY Technical levels

The pair currently trades 0.35% lower at 142.25, with the immediate support at 141.96, under which the pair can fall to 141.65. Meanwhile, a breach of the immediate resistance located at 142.73, shall open doors for a re-test of 143.48.


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EUR/GBP stuck near 0.7860




FXStreet (Mumbai) - The EUR/GBP pair made another attempt to test 0.7860 levels today and failed after the Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence remained near 18-month low in November.

The EUR/GBP pair currently trades at 0.7851, compared to the previous sessions close of 0.7846. Moreover, the pair has made repeated attempts to rise above 0.7860 levels for the last entire week. However, the single currency is unable to extend the gains despite rising occasionally above 0.7860 levels. Moreover, the US Dollar has been strengthening equally against the EUR and the GBP, thereby restricting the EUR/GBP cross to a narrow range.

Meanwhile, the EUR/GBP pair may inch higher if the ECB) bond buying results disappoints market expectations. The bond buying during the first week of the program was just EUR 1.7 billion, which as per analysts is not sufficient to push the ECB balance sheet towards early-2012 levels.

EUR/GBP Technical levels

The pair has a strong resistance at 0.7866, above which it can rise to 0.7885 and 0.7910 levels. On the flip side, a breach of the immediate support at 0.7838 shall push the pair down to 0.7810 levels.



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Brent trades at one-week high




FXStreet (Mumbai) - Brent crude clocked a one-week high today as Chinese exports grew more than expected in October, signaling more demand for Crude in future.

Brent for January delivery is trading at USD 85.23/barrel, compared to the previous session’s close of USD 84.23. The prices rose after official data in China showed exports increased 11.6% from a year earlier, easily exceeding the 10.6% estimate. Meanwhile, the imports rose 4.6%, compared with estimates of 6%. Moreover, Brent prices rose as a rise in export activity means more industrial activity in China and more demand for Crude.

However, the recovery may be technically driven since the commodity has been in the down trend since June 2014. The technical correction is likely to be capped since the concerns of excess supply still dominate the market sentiment.

Brent Crude Technical Levels

Brent has an immediate resistance at 86.39, above which the prices can rise to 87.17. On the flip side, a breach of 84.61 on the downside, can push the prices down to 84.12 levels.


EUR/GBP Technical levels

The pair has a strong resistance at 0.7866, above which it can rise to 0.7885 and 0.7910 levels. On the flip side, a breach of the immediate support at 0.7838 shall push the pair down to 0.7810 levels.



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Bank of Russia abandons exchange rate policy mechainsm




FXStreet (London) - According to a release by the Russian central bank, effective from today, the Bank of Russia abolished the exchange rate policy mechanism through cancelling the permissible range of the dual-currency basket ruble values (operational band) and regular interventions within and outside the borders of this band.

Exchange rate liberalisation

However this move does not constitute a complete rejection of intervention by the Bank of Russia in its currency. It will still intervene in the case of what it perceives to be financial stability threat.
In theory, the removal of the operational band of dual-currency ruble values means that the currency will be free-floating and moves away from the central bank’s policy of the sale of $350 million a day if the rate of the ruble drops below the lower band – a move that was announced this week by Bank of Russia head Elvira Nabiullina. However, the scope of what constitutes a “financial stability threat” is likely to be a wide one, at least in the short to medium-term.

The ruble has declined 25 percent against the dollar in the year-to-date, with the Bank of Russia estimating that capital flight from Russia is set to reach USD128bn this year.



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