Daily Technical Analysis by FXCC

[alayoua]

Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Dec 10 2013

ECOFIN meetings might affect Euro direction, whilst important USA economic data is published in the New York session

Tuesday sees the publication of China's industrial production figures, expected in at 10.2%, retail sales in China are predicted to rise by 13.2%, with fixed asset investment predicted to rise by 20.1% - year on year. In Europe both French and Italian Industrial production figures are published, both expected in at circa 0.2-0.3%. The UK's manufacturing production is expected to fall to 0.4% from the previous month's 1.1%. The UK's trade balance is expected to stay at circa £9.1 bn for the month. The UK's NIESR also publishes its latest data, suggesting that economic activity will be stable at circa 0.7%. In Europe the ECOFIN meetings will take place with Mario Draghi then holding court with a speech discussing the outcomes of the meetings in relation to any policy change, or additions. In the USA there is a raft of information published in the afternoon trading session; the NFIB small business index is published expected in at 92.7. JOLTS job openings are expected in at 3.96 million, with wholesale inventories in the USA expected to shrink to 0.3%. Later in the evening on Tuesday Australia's Westpac consumer confidence index is published, the expectation is for a figure similar to the previous month of 1.9%. Japan publishes its core machinery orders, expected in at 0.9%, up from the previous month's negative print. The corporation inflation number is also printed, expected in at 2.7% year on year. Equity index futures are looking insipid with regards to tomorrow's trading opportunities, the DJIA equity index future is up 0.05%, SPX future up 0.07%, NASDAQ up 0.07%. Looking towards the European open the STOXX future is up 0.34%, DAX up 0.35%, CAC up 0.08% and the FTSE future is up 0.22%. NYMEX WTI oil closed flat on the day on Monday at $97.34 per barrel, NYMEX nat gas closed the day up a significant 2.87% at $4.23 per therm. COMEX gold closed the day up 0.42% at $1234.20 per ounce with silver up 0.91% at $19.70 per ounce. The loonie, as the Canadian dollar is known, rose 0.1 percent to C$1.0627 per U.S. dollar at 5 p.m. in Toronto after falling as much as 0.3 percent. It touched C$1.0708 on Dec. 6th, the weakest since May 2010. One loonie buys 94.10 U.S. cents.
http://blog.fxcc.com/market-analysis

FOREX ECONOMIC CALENDAR :
2013-12-10 12:00 GMT | EU. ECB President Draghi's Speech
2013-12-10 15:00 GMT | UK. NIESR GDP Estimate (3M) (Nov)
2013-12-10 23:30 GMT | Australia. Westpac Consumer Confidence (Dec)
2013-12-10 23:50 GMT | Japan. Machinery Orders (YoY) (Oct)

FOREX NEWS :
2013-12-10 05:41 GMT | AUD/USD capped by 0.91/9120 offers cluster
2013-12-10 02:44 GMT | USD/JPY rolling over short-term as traders sell greenback; 103.54 remains key resistance
2013-12-10 02:16 GMT | EUR/USD bursts through 1.3750 barrier
2013-12-10 01:51 GMT | NZD/USD tilting towards 0.83 handle

---------------------
EURUSD :
HIGH 1.37676 LOW 1.37341 BID 1.37498 ASK 1.37501 CHANGE 0% TIME 08 : 52:41



OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Up trend
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High

MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

Upwards scenario: Next barrier on the upside lie at 1.3768 (R1). Surpassing of this level might enable our initial target at 1.3788 (R2) and any further gains would then be limited to last resistive structure at 1.3806 (R3). Downwards scenario: On the other hand, price pattern suggests bearish potential if the instrument manages to overcome next support level at 1.3728 (S1). Possible price regress could expose our initial targets at 1.3706 (S2) and 1.3684 (S3) in potential.

Resistance Levels: 1.3768, 1.3788, 1.3806
Support Levels: 1.3728, 1.3706, 1.3684

-------------------
GBPUSD :
HIGH 1.64657 LOW 1.64186 BID 1.64491 ASK 1.64497 CHANGE 0% TIME 08 : 52:41



OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High

Upwards scenario: On the upside potential is seen for a break above the resistance at 1.6465 (R1). In such case we would suggest next target at 1.6493 (R2) and any further rise would then be limited to final resistance at 1.6518 (R3). Downwards scenario: On the other hand, successful retest of our next support level at 1.6428 (S1) might provide sufficient momentum for the price acceleration towards to interim target at 1.6403 (S2). Final aim for today locates at 1.6382 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.6465, 1.6493, 1.6518
Support Levels: 1.6428, 1.6403, 1.6382

------------------
USDJPY :
HIGH 103.394 LOW 103.167 BID 103.341 ASK 103.344 CHANGE 0% TIME 08 : 52:41



OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Upward penetration
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High

Upwards scenario: Upside risk aversion is seen above the next resistance level at 103.38 (R1). Appreciation above it might lead to the positive intraday bias formation towards to our next targets at 103.70 (R2) and 104.03 (R3). Downwards scenario: Possible pull back development is limited now to the key supportive barrier at 102.92 (S1). Only loss here would be considered as a beginning of a retracement expansion. Our intraday targets locates at 102.68 (S2) and 102.47 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 103.38, 103.70, 104.03
Support Levels: 102.92, 102.68, 102.47

Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( http://www.fxcc.com )

[alayoua]

Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Dec 11 2013

Could USA oil supplies data cause WTI oil to flirt with the critical $100 a barrel level?

Wednesday sees the publication of USA oil supplies data, expected to print at -5.6 bn barrels, whilst the USA federal budget balance is expected to print at $154.6 bn, significantly worsening from the previous month's figure of $91.6 bn. In New Zealand the cash rate is announced, predicted to stay the same at 2.5%. The press conference, the rate statement and the policy statement will accompany the announcement of the base interest rate, finally later that evening the RBNZ governor Wheeler will conduct a conference. Later Australia will announce the change in unemployment and as a consequence publish the unemployment rate; expected to rise to 5.8% with circa 10K new jobs created. Looking towards equity index futures for Wednesday, the DJIA future is down 0.30%, SPX future down 0.33%, NASDAQ down 0.07%. STOXX is down 0.90%, DAX future down 0.84%, CAC down 1.02%, FTSE future down 0.36%. Commodities enjoyed an improvement through Tuesday's sessions. NYMEX WTI oil up 1.20% at $98.51 per barrel, NYMEX nat gas up 0.12% at $4.24 per therm, COMEX gold enjoyed a significant bounce, up 2.18% at $1261.10 per ounce with silver at $201.41 up 3.60% on the day. The euro rose 0.2 percent to $1.3761 late in New York after reaching $1.3795, the strongest since Oct. 29th. The six straight increases were the most since the seven days ending Dec. 18th, 2012. The common currency fell 0.3 percent to 141.53 yen after climbing to 142.17, the highest since October 2008. The dollar fell 0.4 percent to 102.85 yen. The U.S. Dollar Index, tracking the U.S. currency versus its 10 major counterparts, dropped 0.3 percent to 1,012.57, reaching the lowest level since Nov. 1st. The Swiss franc advanced by 0.2 percent to 1.22169 per euro in London's afternoon session after appreciating to 1.22065, the strongest level since May 2nd. The currency rose for a sixth day versus the dollar, gaining 0.4 percent to 88.66 centimes per dollar. The Swiss franc advanced to the strongest level in seven months against the euro as investors weighed improving economic data before the nation’s central bank meets this week.
http://blog.fxcc.com/market-analysis

FOREX ECONOMIC CALENDAR :
2013-12-11 12:00 GMT | USA. MBA Mortgage Applications (Dec 6)
2013-12-11 15:00 GMT | USA. Treasury Sec Lew Speech
2013-12-11 19:00 GMT | USA. Monthly Budget Statement (Nov)
2013-12-11 20:00 GMT | New Zealand. Monetary Policy Statement

FOREX NEWS :
2013-12-11 06:10 GMT | EUR/USD reaches up to 1.3791 Fibo target and finally relents – for now
2013-12-11 03:48 GMT | AUD/USD stuck in the intraday doldrums after sluggish consumer confidence
2013-12-11 03:37 GMT | USD/JPY projected circa 106.00 by Q4 2014 - JPMorgan
2013-12-11 02:26 GMT | GBP/USD pausing after less-than-convincing breakout above 1.6442 previous resistance

EURUSD :
HIGH 1.37654 LOW 1.37468 BID 1.37578 ASK 1.37583 CHANGE 0% TIME 08 : 35:58



OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
TREND CONDITION : Up trend
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High

MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

Upwards scenario: We expect consolidation development after the initial uptrend formation on the hourly chart frame though possible bullish penetration might face next challenge at 1.3775 (R1). Break here is required to establish further bullish pressure, targeting 1.3789 (R2) en route towards to last resistance for today at 1.3806 (R3). Downwards scenario: Further correction development is limited now to the session low - 1.3728 (S1). If the price manages to surpass it we would suggest next intraday targets at 1.3706 (S2) and 1.3684 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.3775, 1.3789, 1.3806
Support Levels: 1.3728, 1.3706, 1.3684

-----------------
GBPUSD :
HIGH 1.64579 LOW 1.64306 BID 1.64332 ASK 1.64335 CHANGE 0% TIME 08 : 35:58



OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
TREND CONDITION : Sideway
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High

Upwards scenario: Market having failed to establish directional movement yesterday. Possible price strengthening might arise above the next resistance level at 1.6465 (R1). Our interim target holds at 1.6493 (R2) en route toward to our major aim at 1.6518 (R3). Downwards scenario: We would shift our short-term technical outlook to the negative if the price manage to penetrate below the key support at 1.6421 (S1). Loss here would suggest next initial targets at 1.6403 (S2) and 1.6382 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.6465, 1.6493, 1.6518
Support Levels: 1.6421, 1.6403, 1.6382

-------------------
USDJPY :
HIGH 102.948 LOW 102.574 BID 102.732 ASK 102.734 CHANGE 0% TIME 08 : 35:58



OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
TREND CONDITION : Sideway
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High

Upwards scenario: Pair has settled sideways formation on the hourly timeframe. However potential to move higher is seen above the resistance level at 102.93 (R1) mark. Loss here would suggest next intraday targets at 103.15 (R2) and 103.38 (R3). Downwards scenario: Penetration below the support at 102.65 (S1) is liable to put more downward pressure on the instrument in the near-term perspective. As a result our supportive means at 102.47 (S2) and 102.30 (S3) might be triggered.

Resistance Levels: 102.93, 103.15, 103.38
Support Levels: 102.65, 102.47, 102.30

Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( http://www.fxcc.com )

[alayoua]

Forex Technical & Market Analysis FXCC Dec 12 2013

Markets sell of due to 'taper' rumours, will better than expected unemployment numbers raise a seasonal cheer?

Thursday Mario Draghi speaks, whilst the Swiss publish their monetary policy intentions and assessment with the Libor rate also published. The Swiss bank head Jordan will also hold a conference; the ECB will publish the latest monetary policy in the form of a monthly bulletin. European industrial production is expected to rise to 0.4% from the previous month's fall of -0.5%. In the USA core retail sales data is published, expected in at 0.2%, with retail sales up 0.6%. Unemployment claims are expected in at circa 321K after the surprise fall last week of 289K. Import prices in the USA are expected to fall to -0.7% (month on month). Canada's central bank governor Poloz speaks late on Thursday, whilst the business New Zealand index is published, expected to be similar to the previous month's print of 55.7, whilst Japan's revised industrial production is expected in at 0.5%, identical to the previous month's print. NYMEX WTI oil closed down on Wednesday by 1.13%, at $97.41 per barrel, with NYMEX nat gas closing up 2.43% on the day at $4.34 per therm. WTI advanced 5.3 percent last week, the most in five months, as U.S. crude inventories fell for the first time in 11 weeks and TransCanada Corp. announced plans to start part of its Keystone pipeline to the Gulf Coast from Cushing, Oklahoma, the delivery point for NYMEX futures. COMEX gold closed down 0.61% at $1253.40 per ounce with silver at $20.28 down 0.17% on the day. The DJIA equity index future is (at the time of writing) down 0.89%, SPX down 1.24% NASDAQ down 1.31%. Looking towards Europe's open the STOXX 50 future is down 0.61%, DAX future is down 0.54%, CAC future is down 0.34%, FTSE future down 0.81%.
http://blog.fxcc.com/market-analysis

FOREX ECONOMIC CALENDAR :
2013-12-12 09:00 GMT | EU. ECB Monthly Report
2013-12-12 09:00 GMT | Switzerland. SNB press conference
2013-12-12 13:30 GMT | USA. Retail Sales (MoM) (Nov)
2013-12-12 18:05 GMT | Canada. BoC Governor Poloz Speech

FOREX NEWS :
2013-12-12 02:49 GMT | Gold sees a little downside Wednesday; 1268.30 remains resistance
2013-12-12 01:19 GMT | USD/JPY heading to the 100 handle?
2013-12-12 00:41 GMT | AUD/USD spikes
2013-12-12 00:20 GMT | GBP/USD posts bearish reversal candle Wednesday. Could it have a date with 1.6250?

------------------
EURUSD :
HIGH 1.37981 LOW 1.37731 BID 1.37889 ASK 1.37892 CHANGE 0% TIME 08 : 38:32



OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Up trend
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High

MARKET ANALYSIS - Intraday Analysis

Upwards scenario: Possibility of market strengthening is seen above the immediate resistive barrier at 1.3806 (R1). Price extension above it is required to validate our next intraday targets at 1.3832 (R2) and 1.3860 (R3). Downwards scenario: While instrument trades above the moving averages, our short-term bias would stay positive though penetration below the support level at 1.3757 (S1) might open way towards to lower targets at 1.3728 (S2) and 1.3706 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.3806, 1.3832, 1.3860
Support Levels: 1.3757, 1.3728, 1.3706

---------------------
GBPUSD :
HIGH 1.638 LOW 1.63533 BID 1.63654 ASK 1.63659 CHANGE 0% TIME 08 : 38:32



OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Down
TREND CONDITION : Sideway
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bearish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High

Upwards scenario: Market descended, however price appreciation might be possible above the next resistance level at 1.6398 (R1). Break here is required to enable next attractive points at 1.6428 (R2) and 1.6465 (R3). Downwards scenario: Next support level is seen at 1.6346 (S1), any penetration below it might activate downside pressure and enable lower target at 1.6319 (S2). Any further market decline would then be limited to 1.6290 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 1.6398, 1.6428, 1.6465
Support Levels: 1.6346, 1.6319, 1.6290

-----------------------
USDJPY :
HIGH 102.754 LOW 102.387 BID 102.649 ASK 102.651 CHANGE 0% TIME 08 : 38:32



OUTLOOK SUMMARY : Up
TREND CONDITION : Sideway
TRADERS SENTIMENT : Bullish
IMPLIED VOLATILITY : High

Upwards scenario: Any upside actions looks limited to resistance level at 102.93 (R1). Surpassing of this level might enable next target at 103.15 (R2) and any further gains would then be targeting final mark at 103.38 (R3) in potential. Downwards scenario: On the downside our attention is shifted to the immediate support level at 102.30 (S1). Break here is required to enable bearish forces and expose our intraday targets at 102.10 (S2) and 101.92 (S3).

Resistance Levels: 102.93, 103.15, 103.38
Support Levels: 102.30, 102.10, 101.92

Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd,( http://www.fxcc.com )