LiteForexTeam

XAU/USD: general review

Current trend

Gold quotes are growing after lingering downward trend caused by strengthening of US dollar. On Friday, US dollar was under pressure of weak data on average earnings in USA. According to the data published, the indicator grew by 0.2%, though analytics expected it to grow by 0.3%. Despite that new Nonfarm Payrolls data appeared to be better than forecasted, this provided no support for US currency. Positive labor market data was already taken into account, as preliminary data from ADP had shown huge growth in employment. Investors focused their attention on weak earnings growth and started locking in the profits for dollar positions. As a result, gold rate grew by 0.33%. Gold quotes grew by 0.20% more within today's trading session.

Support and resistance

Today, gold is testing 1211.06, but can't consolidate above it yet. On the H4 chart, Bollinger Bands converge, predicting continuation of current upward trend. MACD histogram is in negative zone, its volume is decreasing, signalling that there still is growth potential.

Support levels: 1203.81, 1198.45, 1194.83.

Resistance levels: 1211.06, 1216.79, 1220.67.

Trading tips

Buy positions may be opened above 1211.06 with Take Profit orders at 1216.79 and stop-loss at 1209.06.

Sell positions may be opened below 1203.81 with Take Profit orders at 1198.45 and stop-loss at 1205.80.

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XAU/USD: general review

Current trend

After a significant growth on Thursday amid the US Fed Interest Rate Decision, the price of gold slightly fell. The instrument was pressured by expectations of strong data on the US GDP for the second quarter of the year. According to forecasts, the index will grow from 1.1% to 2.6%. However, the Dollar remains under pressure due to uncertainty regarding plans of the American regulator on monetary policy tightening during this year. The probability of a rate hike at September’s meeting currently stands at only 14%.

Support and resistance

On the 4-hour chart, Bollinger Bands is directed down while the price range is narrowing, suggesting the likelihood of a trend change. MACD is turning down. Stochastic turned up near the border of the oversold zone.

The indicators recommend short positions.

Support levels: 1330.01, 1327.52, 1325.53, 1323.21, 1321.05, 1318.72, 1315.74.

Resistance levels: 1336.32, 1340.46, 1342.29, 1345.28, 1346.77.

Trading tips

Short positions can be opened from current prices with the target at 1321.00 and stop-loss at 1340.00. Validity – 1 day.

Long positions can be opened from the level of 1318.70 with the target at 1323.00 and stop-loss at 1313.50. Validity – 1 day.

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USD/JPY: review and forecast

Current trend

Yesterday the pair showed a volatile trade amid the publication of important news.

The pair was significantly supported by information of a possible expansion in the stimulus program in Japan that could amount to $265 billion. Later in the day, however, the Dollar was pressured by the Fed decision to leave its interest rate unchanged at 0.5%.

Today attention needs to be paid to data on Initial Jobless Claims in the US. Better-than-forecast figure could provide additional support to the pair. Extra attention needs to be paid to tomorrow’s monetary policy decision by the Bank of Japan.

Support and resistance

The pair bounced off the border of the descending channel and at present consolidated below the psychologically important level of 105.00. A breakdown of 50% Fibonacci correction could accelerate pair’s fall.

The RSI is breaking down the 50-point mark suggesting the fall could continue.

Support levels: 104.50, 103.20, 102.40.

Resistance levels: 105.30, 106.00, 106.50, 107.50.

Trading tips

Long positions can be opened after the breakout of the level of 105.40 with targets at 106.00, 106.50.

Short positions can be opened from the level of 104.40 with targets at 103.80, 103.20.

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GBP/USD: review and forecast

Current trend

The pair continues trading in a narrow sideways channel near the level of 1.3100 amid lack of important macroeconomic news form the UK and prior to the Fed Interest Rate Decision that is due today. According to forecasts, the rate will remain unchanged.

At the same time, the majority of market participants expect a rate cut in the UK in the nearest future while the probability of monetary policy tightening in the US before the end of the year significantly increased, which is pressuring the pair.

Support and resistance

In the medium-term, the price is expected to fall to the level of 1.3000, where it will reverse and return to the level of 1.3250.

On the 4-hour chart, the price is trading near the lower MA of Bollinger Bands while bands are narrowing.

Support levels: 1.3050, 1.3000, 1.2860.

Resistance levels: 1.3150, 1.3250, 1.3310, 1.3400, 1.3480.

Trading tips

Pending buy order can be placed at the level of 1.3000 with the target at 1.3250 and stop-loss at 1.2900.

Short positions can be opened from the level of 1.2940 with the target at 1.2860 and stop-loss at 1.3000.

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USD/JPY: general analysis

Current trend

Despite strong macroeconomic statistics that were released today in Japan, the Yen remains under pressure amid expectations of a cut in interest rates at the upcoming Bank of Japan meeting, due 29 July. Moreover, it should also be noted that other major central banks also consider further easing of monetary policy to overcome negative effects of Britain’s exit from the EU. Thus, the US Dollar is seen as a more attractive asset in the current situation.

Support and resistance

Bollinger Bands on the 4-hour chart is directed horizontally while the price range is showing no changes. The instrument fell below the support level of 106.27. MACD histogram is in the positive zone, but its volumes are falling. The indicator is giving a sell signal. Stochastic reached the border of the overbought zone and turned down.

The indicators recommend short positions.

Support levels: 105.98, 105.67, 105.43, 105.04.

Resistance levels: 106.27, 106.50, 106.70, 107.16, 107.45.

Trading tips

Short positions can be opened from the current levels with the target at 105.43 and stop-loss at 106.70. Validity – 1-2 days.

Long positions can be opened from the level of 106.50 with the target at 107.00 and stop-loss at 106.15. Validity – 1-2 days.

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Brent: general analysis

Current trend

The price of Brent crude oil remains under pressure as gasoline inventories grew to a record high. In particular, the US Energy Information Administration reported a rise in gasoline stocks by 0.9 million barrels to 241 million barrels in the week ended 15 July that is 25% increase compared to the previous year. The same situation can be seen in Europe where gasoline stocks were up by 12%.

Moreover, strengthening in the US Dollar and a sluggish pace of the world economic growth have a negative impact on oil prices dynamics.

Support and resistance

RSI is growing suggesting the possibility of a correction towards the level of 46.50 from which a fall in the price should be expected.

The nearest support level is at 45.80.

The nearest resistance level is at 46.50.

Trading tips

Short positions can be opened from the level of 46.50 with the target at 45.00 and stop-loss at 47.00.

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EUR/USD: general review

Current trend

The pair continues trading at its local lows amid weakening in the Euro, which remains under pressure prior to the ECB monetary policy meeting. According to forecasts, the regulator will keep its interest rate unchanged but will announce its readiness to further ease monetary policy in the nearest future. At the same time, additional uncertainty to ECB’s decision comes from a growing problem in the Italian banking sector, which could worsen the situation of UK’s departure from the European Union. According to the IMF estimates, the total size of bad debts on banks’ balance sheets amounts to around 360 billion Euro.

In addition, the pair is pressured by strengthening in the Dollar that receives support from strong macroeconomic statistics from the US. The latest data increased the probability of an interest rate hike by the Fed before the year-end.

Support and resistance

The nearest support level is at 1.0984.

The nearest resistance level is at 1.1023.

Trading tips

Short positions can be opened from the level of 1.0984 with the target at 1.0750 and stop-loss at 1.1023.

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XAG/USD: technical analysis

XAG/USD, H4

On the 4-hour chart, the instrument is moving down along the lower MA of Bollinger Bands. The price remains above EMA100 and EMA144, both directed up, and below EMA50. MACD histogram is in the negative zone, and its volumes are gradually growing. The indicator is giving a sell signal. Stochastic is falling.

XAG/USD, D1

On the daily chart, the instrument rebounded down from the upper MA of Bollinger Bands in the region of 20.50 and is now moving towards the middle MA. At present, the price remains above EMA50, EMA100 and EMA144 that are directed up. MACD histogram is in the positive zone, and its volumes, having reached their highs, are now gradually falling. The indicator is giving a sell signal. Stochastic lines are directed down.

Key levels

Support levels: 19.70, 19.45, 19.00, 18.30, 18.00, 17.50, 17.20, 16.65, 16.30, 15.80.

Resistance levels: 20.00, 20.25, 20.50, 20.95, 21.15.

Trading tips

According to the indicators, short positions are preferable and can be opened from the level of 19.70 with targets at 19.45, 19.00 and stop-loss at 19.85. Validity – 1-2 days.

Long positions can be opened from the level of 20.00 with targets at 20.25, 20.50 and stop-loss at 19.90. Validity – 1-3 days.

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USD/CAD: pair trades flat

Current trend

The USD/CAD pair started this week with a growth but then lost most of its gains. This dynamics in the pair can be explained by the lack of important macroeconomic publications in the US and fluctuation in the oil market.

The price of oil lost about 2 percent on Friday after data on crude supplies and the number of active oil rigs were released. Genscape reported an increase of 26,460 barrels in the week to 15 July at Cushing delivery hub. Data from Baker Hughes showed that the number of active oil rigs rose by six to 357. These statistics are seen as a negative factor that might cause a shift in the supply and demand fragile balance in the oil market.

Support and resistance

Bollinger Bands on the daily chart is moving horizontally while the price range remains narrow. MACD is trying to turn up while still keeping a sell signal. Stochastic is turning up near the border of the oversold zone.

Support levels: 1.2962, 1.2930, 1.2900, 1.2861 (local low), 1.2831 (4 July low), 1.2800, 1.2762, 1.2700 (23 June level).

Resistance levels: 1.3000, 1.3021 (local high), 1.3055, 1.3083, 1.3100, 1.3139 (11 July high).

Trading tips

Long positions can be opened above the level of 1.3000 (with appropriate indicators signals) with targets at 1.3100, 1.3139 and stop-loss at 1.2962, 1.2950. Validity – 2-3 days.

Short positions can be opened after the price rebounds down from the level of 1.3000 with the target at 1.2900 and stop-loss at 1.3050. Validity – 2-3 days.

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UKBrent: technical analysis

BRENT, D1

On the daily chart, the instrument is trading in the lower Bollinger band. The indicator is directed down while the price range is expanding. MACD histogram entered the negative zone and formed a sell signal. Stochastic is approaching the oversold zone.

BRENT, H4

On the 4-hour chart, the instrument broke down a strong support level at 47.38. Bollinger Bands is directed horizontally while the price range is narrowing, suggesting a change in the trend possibility. MACD histogram is trying to turn up but keeping a sell signal. Stochastic is about to enter the oversold zone.

Key levels

Support levels: 46.47 (local low), 46.09, 45.71 (lower MA of Bollinger Bands).

Resistance levels: 47.38, 47.91, 48.63 (middle MA of Bollinger Bands), 49.20.

Trading tips

Short positions can be opened from current prices with the target at 45.71 and stop-loss at 47.38. Validity – 1-2 days.

Long positions can be opened from the level of 47.91 with targets at 48.30, 48.65 and stop-loss at 47.15. Validity – 1-2 days.

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EUR/USD: general analysis

Current trend

The EUR/USD pair is moving up and strengthened by 35 points in the previous trading session. Yesterday US macroeconomic statistics had almost no influence on dynamics in the pair. It should, nevertheless, be noted that the number of initial jobless claims remained unchanged at 254,000 while economists expected an increase to 265,000. Today market participants will be following data on the Consumer Price Index and Retail Sales, due in the US at 2:30 pm (GMT+2).

Support and resistance

Bollinger Bands on the 4-hour chart is directed up. MACD histogram is in the positive zone, and its volumes are growing.

The indicators recommend long positions.

Support levels: 1.1115, 1.1087, 1.1050, 1.1010.

Resistance levels: 1.1148, 1.1185, 1.1220, 1.1276.

Trading tips

Long positions can be opened above the level of 1.1148 with targets at 1.1185 and 1.1220.

Short positions can be opened below the level of 1.1087 with targets at 1.1050 and 1.1010.

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AUD/USD: review and forecast

Current trend

The AUD/USD pair has been moving up for two weeks already, and the dynamics is likely to continue. Since yesterday, the Australian Dollar has strengthened by about 70 points.

Today attention needs to be paid to data on the Initial Jobless Claims, due in the US at 14:30 pm (GMT+2). The indicator is expected to grow from 254,000 to 265,000 that might have a negative impact on the US currency.

Support and resistance

Bollinger Bands on the daily chart is directed up. The price is growing from the middle to the upper MA, and at present there is no indication that the price tends to reverse.

Support levels: 0.7600, 0.7550, 0.7540.

Resistance levels: 0.7650, 0.7690, 0.7720.

Trading tips

Long positions can be opened from the current level with the target at 0.7700 and stop-loss at 0.7600.

Pending sell orders can be placed at the level of 0.7700.

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GBP/USD: review and forecast

Current trend

The British currency continues strengthening. Since the beginning of the week, the GBP/USD pair has gained back about 500 points. There is a good chance that the pair has already reached its lows after the results of the British referendum were released, and, therefore, might continue developing its upward trend.

Support and resistance

On the daily chart, the price remains between the lower and the middle MAs of Bollinger Bands and might continue moving up towards the middle one and reach the level of 1.3500 which is one of recent local highs.

Support levels: 1.3225, 1.3150, 1.3060, 1.2860.

Resistance levels: 1.3400, 1.3470, 1.3500, 1.3585.

Trading tips

Long positions can be opened from the current level with the target at 1.3500 and stop-loss at 1.3235.

Short positions can be opened from the level of 1.3235 with the target at 1.2860 and stop-loss at 1.3310.

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USD/JPY: pair is growing

Current trend

The pair continues growing amid weakening in the Yen. The Japanese currency was pressured by a victory in elections of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe who is an active supporter of an expansion in the economy stimulation program. Experts note that after the victory implementation of stimulus measures will become much easier.

At the same time, the Dollar was supported by strong data on the US labour market that was released last Friday. The Nonfarm Payrolls came out at 287 thousands, significantly exceeding expectations of 175 thousand jobs and the previous figure of 11 thousands.

Support and resistance

Bollinger Bands on the daily chart is moving down while the price range is narrowing. MACD is growing and giving a strong buy signal. Stochastic is growing as well and approaching the overbought zone.

The indicators recommend waiting for clearer trading signals.

Support levels: 102.00 (local low), 101.46, 100.57, 100.00 (8 July low), 99.00 (24 June low).

Resistance levels: 103.00 (local high), 103.39 (1 July high), 104.00, 104.82, 105.54, 106.39, 106.84 (24 June high), 107.25, 107.89 (7 June high).

Trading tips

Long positions can be opened after the breakout of the level of 103.39 with targets at 104.82, 105.54 and stop-loss at 102.50. Validity – 2-3 days.

Short positions can be opened after the price rebound from the level of 103.00 with targets at 100.57, 100.00 and stop-loss at 104.00. Validity – 2-3 days.

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USD/CAD: pair is growing

Current trend

The pair continued growing in the end of last week amid the publications of labour market data in the US and Canada. The American data showed a substantial strengthening of its labour market that supported the US Dollar. The number of Initial Jobless Claims fell to 254 thousands while the Nonfarm Payrolls increased to 287 thousands, against the previous figure of 11 thousands. At the same time, the Canadian Dollar was pressured by data on the Net Change in Employment, which fell by 0.7 thousands while economists predicted a growth of 13.8 thousands. However, the Participation Rate shrank from 65.7% to 65.5% that lead to a decline in the Unemployment Rate from 6.9% to 6.8%.

Support and resistance

Bollinger Bands on the daily chart is moving up while the price range is narrowing. MACD is growing and giving a weak buy signal. Stochastic is growing as well and approaching the overbought zone.

The indicators recommend waiting for clearer trading signals.

Support levels: 1.3020, 1.3000 (psychologically important level), 1.2962, 1.2930, 1.2876 (7 July low), 1.2831 (4 July low), 1.2800, 1.2762. 1.2700.

Resistance levels: 1.3064 (local high), 1.3100 (28 June high), 1.3143 (2 June high), 1.3187 (24 May high), 1.3218.

Trading tips

Long positions can be opened after the price consolidation above the level of 1.3100 with targets at 1.3218, 1.3250, 1.3300 and stop-loss at 1.3050. Validity – 2-3 days.

Short positions can be opened after the breakdown of the level of 1.3020 with targets at 1.2900, 1.2876 and stop-loss at 1.3070. Validity – 2-3 days.

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EUR/USD: general analysis

Current trend

Yesterday data on Germany’s industrial production and US initial jobless claims had almost no influence on the EUR/USD pair. Today market participants are waiting for data on US nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate statistics for June. Friday’s employment report is expected to show nonfarm payrolls increased by 175,000 jobs from low May reading of 38,000. Unemployment rate is likely to be up to 4.8% from 4.7%.

Support and resistance

The pair is trading within a narrow range of 1.1050-1.1105. The market remains relatively calm ahead of US jobs report. Bollinger Bands is directed horizontally. MACD histogram is moving along the signal line in the negative zone.

Support levels: 1.1035, 1.0971, 1.0911.

Resistance levels: 1.1105, 1.1143, 1.1185.

Trading tips

Short positions can be opened below the level of 1.1035 with targets at 1.0971 and 1.0911.

Long positions can be opened above the level of 1.1143 with targets at 1.1185 and 1.1220.

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GBP/USD: general analysis

Current trend

Yesterday the GBP/USD pair reached its new lows, having fallen to the level of 1.2796. The fall in the pair slowed down only amid the publication of data on US trade balance as trade deficit widened more than forecast.

Macroeconomic statistics, released today in the UK, were generally favorable for the national currency. Industrial production fell 0.5 percent in May compared to April that was, nevertheless, better than a projected drop of 0.9 percent. On the year, the indicator was 1.4 percent up against the forecast of 0.5 percent. The Halifax House Price Index grew 1.3 percent in May after a 0.9 percent growth in the previous month.

Data on the Employment Change is due today in the US. The indicator is expected to decline from 173 to 159 thousands that might negatively influence the US Dollar. Attention also needs to be paid to data on the Initial Jobless Claims. If the indicator exceeds the forecast of 270 thousands, the American currency is likely to come under pressure.

Support and resistance

On the daily chart, the pair is declining along the lower MA of Bollinger Bands. MACD histogram is in the negative zone, and its volumes are showing a sharp growth. Stochastic is in the oversold zone and moving along its border.

Support levels: 1.2900, 1.2800.

Resistance levels: 1.3010, 1.3120, 1.3290, 1.3440, 1.3675, 1.3880, 1.4220, 1.4609, 1.4770.

Trading tips

Long positions can be opened from the level of 1.3020 with the target at 1.3120 and stop-loss at 1.2990.

Short positions can be opened from the level of 1.2900 with the target at 1.2800 and stop-loss at 1.2930.

Validity – 1-3 days.

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USD/CAD: general analysis

Current trend

On Tuesday the US Dollar strengthened against the Canadian currency. Concerns about Brexit’s impact on the global economy result in higher demand for the US currency. Moreover, the USD/CAD pair gained support from a decline in oil prices.

Today dynamics in the pair might be influenced by statistics on trade balance, due both in the US and in Canada. Attention also needs to be paid to US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, as an expected index growth from 52.9 to 53.3 points might provide moderate support for the American currency.

Support and resistance

On the 4-hour chart, the price is trying to consolidate above the upper MA of Bollinger Bands. The indicator is directed horizontally while the price range is widening that suggests the current trend is likely to continue. MACD histogram is in the positive zone, and its volumes are growing. Stochastic is about to leave the overbought zone.

Long positions seem preferable, but it is recommended to wait for clearer trading signals before placing new orders.

Support levels: 1.2978, 1.2950, 1.2920, 1.2899, 1.2874, 1.2857, 1.2820.

Resistance levels: 1.3016, 1.3046, 1.3077, 1.3095.

Trading tips

Long positions can be opened from the current level with targets at 1.3046, 1.3077 and stop-loss at 1.2978. Validity – 1-2 days.

Short positions can be opened after the level of 1.2978 is broken down with the target at 1.2950 and stop-loss at 1.3046. Validity – 1-2 days.

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GBP/USD: review and forecast

Current trend

Since last Friday, the GDP/USD pair has been trading within a narrow range of 1.3250-1.3300. Today market participants will be following a press conference given by the Bank of England Governor Mark Carney. The Head of the Regulator will give commentaries regarding current economic conditions in the country which are likely to influence short-term dynamics in the pair.

Support and resistance

The price is in the region of the lower MA of Bollinger Bands, and its growth towards the middle and upper MAs seems a likelier scenario. The price range is slightly widening.

Support levels: 1.3225, 1.3220, 1.3150.

Resistance levels: 1.3260, 1.3310, 1.3380, 1.3400.

Trading tips

Pending buy orders can be placed at the level of 1.3225 with the target at 1.3310 and stop-loss at 1.3200.

Pending sell orders can be placed at the level of 1.3310 with the target at 1.3235 and stop-loss at 1.3330.

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GBP/USD: review and forecast

Current trend

Yesterday the GBP/USD pair was growing and gained 250 points but then started correcting down and lost 150 points. There is a strong chance that descending movement will continue. Today the pair might be influenced by UK’s Q1 GDP data, due at 10:30 am (GMT+2).

Support and resistance

The price is moving down from the middle MA of Bollinger Bands to the lower one. The price range is narrowing. The price is likely to reach the lower MA and then turn up.

Support levels: 1.3364, 1.3300, 1.3260, 1.3150.

Resistance levels: 1.3470, 1.3585.

Trading tips

Short positions can be opened from the current level with the target at 1.3364 and stop-loss at 1.3470.

Pending buy orders can be placed at the level of 1.3364 with the target at 1.3470 and stop-loss at 1.3300.

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GBP/USD: general analysis

Current trend

Yesterday almost 52% of British people voted to leave the European Union, and the Pound crashed to its 30-year low. Moreover, the GBP/USD pair was under pressure from strong data on the number of initial jobless claims in the US. The indicator dropped more than expected from 277 to 259 thousands against the forecast of 270 thousands.

Today attention should be paid to statistics on durable goods orders in the US.

Support and resistance

On the 4-hour chart, the price did not managed to consolidate above the strong resistance level of 1.3902. The pair is trading below the lower MA of Bollinger Bands, but the price range is widening suggesting the current trend is likely to continue. MACD histogram is in the negative zone, and its volumes are growing; a strong sell signal has been formed. Stochastic has turned horizontally near the border of the oversold zone.

The indicators recommend short positions.

Support levels: 1.3655, 1.3356, 1.3229.

Resistance levels: 1.3778, 1.3902, 1.4013, 1.4169, 1.4287, 1.4424, 1.4561.

Trading tips

Short positions can be opened from the current level with targets at 1.3356, 1.3229 and stop-loss at 1.3902. Validity – 1-2 days.

Long positions can be opened from the level of 1.4013 with the target at 1.4424 and stop-loss at 1.3778. Validity – 1-2 days.

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XAG/USD: Technical analysis

XAG/USD, D1

On the daily chart the pair is traded near the upper band of the Bollinger indicator. The indicator is moving up and the price range is expanding. The price is above the moving average line of EMA50, EMA100 and EMA144. MACD histogram is in the positive area, its volumes are slightly decreasing. Stochastic is in the central area, at the border with the oversold area, and its lines are directed downwards.

XAG/USD, H4

On 4-hour chart the pair is traded in the lower band of the Bollinger indicator; the indicator is moving sideways, price range has narrowed. Moving average line EMA50 is above the price level, while EMA100 and EMA144 are below the price level. MACD histogram is entered to the negative zone and volumes are decreasing. Stochastic is in the neutral zone, its lines are directed upwards.

Key levels

Support levels: 16.35 (two-week lows), 16.92 ( EMA50), 17.09 (local lows).

Resistance levels: 17.60 (local highs), 17.84 (last month highs), 18.02 (upper limit of the Bollinger bands).

Trading tips

It is advisable to open short positions from the level of 17.09 with the targets of 16.69, 16.48 and stop-loss at 17.25. Long positions can be opened from the level of 17.52 with the targets of 17.84, 18.16 and stop-loss at 17.09. Forecast is valid for 3-5 days.

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USD/CAD: flat trades in the pair

Current trend

The USD has significantly grown against the CAD at the closing session on Tuesday, after two-day decline, which led the price back to the local lows of June. Minor correction was caused by the domination of cautious sentiments in the market. Prior to the referendum on the UK’s membership in the EU, investors do not rush to open new positions, even despite some encouraging signals.

On Tuesday, the head of the US Fed, Mrs. Janet Yellen gave a speech before the Banking Committee in the Senate. As before, she has mentioned that the world economy is facing significant risks; China is facing economic difficulties and interest rate will depend on the economic situation. As long as economic situation remains ambiguous, the prospects of the interest rate increase in the USA in July are vague.

Levels of support and resistance

Resistance levels: 1.2800, 1.2829 (local highs of 20 June), 1.2861, 1.2900, 1.2962, 1.3000 (psychologically important level), 1.3037, 1.3100, 1.3143 (highs of 2 June), 1.3187 (highs of 24 May) and 1.3218.

Support levels: 1.2762 (local lows of 21 June), 1.2700, 1.2654 (lows of 8 June), 1.2600 (lows of 3 May).

On the daily chart the indicator “Bollinger bands” is declining. Price range is narrowing, indicating mixed movement in the market in the past few days. MACD indicator is declining, giving a weak sell signal. If the “bearish” trend continues, it is recommended to keep existing short positions. Stochastic Oscillator is going down too. However, the line of the indicator has almost reached the lowest in the oversold zone, which reduces chances of continuation of the downtrend in the short-term. It is advisable to wait until the indicator leaves oversold zone.

Индикатор “Полосы Боллинджера” на дневном графике демонстрирует снижение. Ценовой диапазон сужается, отражая разнонаправленный характер торгов, наблюдаемых в последние несколько дней. *Индикатор MACD снижается, сохраняя слабый сигнал на продажу. При сохранении текущего «медвежьего» сигнала рекомендуется удерживать имеющиеся короткие позиции. Осциллятор “Стохастик” сохраняет нисходящую направленность. Вместе с тем, линия индикатора уже практически достигла минимальных значений в области перепродаж, что существенно ограничивает перспективы развития нисходящего тренда в краткосрочной и перспективе. Следует дождаться выхода индикатора из области перепродаж.

Trading tips

Long positions can be opened if the price goes up above the level of 1.2800 and rebounds from this level as a support level. Take profit can be placed at the levels of 1.2900 1.2962 or 1.3000. Stop-loss - 1.2762. Forecast is valid for 2-3 days.

As an alternative scenario the “bearish” trend can resume after breakdown of the level of 1.2762. In this case, it is advisable to open short positions with the target of 1.2600 and stop-loss of 1.2800. Forecast is valid for 2-3 days.

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USD/JPY: продолжение снижения цены

Current trend

Demand for the Yen remains high amid difficulties and risks the global economy is facing. The American Dollar does not manage to show a strong growth being under pressure from mixed macroeconomic data, released in the US. As a result, the USD/JPY pair reached the key support level of 103.50.

Today market participants are following Fed Chair Janet Yellen’s Congressional Testimony, and later this week, attention needs to be paid to US labour market statistics and data on the Durable Goods Orders.

Support and resistance

Despite of an upward correction today, the price is likely to remain within a descending channel and head towards the key support at 101.00, which is the lowest level since 2013. It also should be noted that the price might start moving sideways within the range of 101.00-107.50.

According to technical indicators, the pair tends to continue its downward movement. MACD histogram is in the negative zone, and its volumes are growing. Bollinger Bands is directed up. The price remains above Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen lines of Ichimoku clouds.

Support levels: 104.15, 103.50, 102.65, 102.05, 101.00, 100.30, 100.00, 99.70.

Resistance levels: 105.05, 105.90, 107.00, 107.50, 108.75, 109.30.

Trading tips

It is recommended to build up on your short position from the levels of 105.05, 107.00 with the target at 101.00 and stop-loss at 107.90.

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EUR/USD: pair continues growing

Current trend

At the end of the previous week, the Euro was gaining positions against the US Dollar, and today the pair opened with a substantial gap up.

Current dynamics is caused by weakness in the US Dollar coupled with growing demand for risky assets. In the UK, all Brexit referendum campaigns were suspended due to the murder of the Labour MP Jo Cox. As a result, new polling data showed a certain decline in chances of the UK’s exit from the EU.

On Friday the American currency came under pressure from macroeconomic statistics. In particular, the number of housing starts fell from 1.167 to 1.164 million in May that was, however, better than the forecast of 1.150 million. The number of building permits grew from 1.130 to 1.138 million in May against an expected rise to 1.150 million.

Support and resistance

Bollinger Bands on the daily chart is showing a moderate growth while the price range is still narrowing quite actively. MACD has turned up and started growing with a buy signal. Stochastic has reached the border of the overbought zone that suggests a downward correction might develop in the short term.

According to the indicators, long positions are preferable.

Support levels: 1.1348, 1.1300, 1.1255, 1.1231, 1.1200, 1.1179, 1.1128 (16 June low), 1.1100 (near 30 May low), 1.1057, 1.1000 (10 March level), 1.0966.

Resistance levels: 1.1400 (near 9 June highs), 1.1449, 1.1500 (4 May level), 1.1541, 1.1577, 1.1615 (3 may high).

Trading tips

Long positions can be opened after the level of 1.1400 is broken out (with appropriate indicators signals) with targets at 1.1500, 1.1541, 1.1577 and stop-loss at 1.1340. Validity – 1-2 days.

Short positions can be opened after the price turns down near the level of 1.1400 with the target at 1.1200 and stop-loss at 1.1450. Validity – 2-3 days.

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