Alan Rich Online

GBPUSD I’d get interested in it now because something is happening to it. Its got a more directional feel to it and the US market might do something with it.

However after promising an initial move from the pivot shown and a drop down this morning it went sideways so rather than keep on about it It I left it. Now its moving I’d put the ARTS system on it as it’s bouncing a lot stronger off the fib level we looked at earlier.

Below is how it promised so much and then did nothing. When it does nothing I’m not interested.

Now it’s moving I’m interested in it and I’ll follow it.

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The early strength is good news for the US market with an initial pull back taking out the days high.

The big money how ever will come in the next 10-15 mins. There is a big gap to fill on the SPY’s, if it ignores it and keeps on going it’s good for the market but just watch out if it rolls over and fills that gap.

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Alan Rich

I will be posting all my posts here from now on!

US market

The early strength is good news for the US market with an initial pull back taking out the days high.

The big money how ever will come in the next 10-15 mins. There is a big gap to fill on the SPY’s, if it ignores it and keeps on going it’s good for the market but just watch out if it rolls over and fills that gap.

http://members.alanrichonline.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/early.png

Gold

Gold could be poised to go higher.

It’s back atatcking the latest highs in its consolidation.

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Gold

I know what I have said in the past about Gold but watching it in the short term it just doesn’t want to stay down.

The last sell off was just a pullback. I may very well buy a small position in it and place it in my portfolio in case there is more to this bounce in the daily charts than I think.

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US Dollar, look at this scenario

After todays economic news the Dollar strengthened.

But what if its just part of the US Dollars continued rollover?

In the chart attached I have shown what the Dollar index is doing and put the fib grid on the last leg down.

I’d watch the Fib grid area to see if it can’t get through them.

If it starts stalling at the highs of the rollover just as the USDJPY did recently then we could get another drop.

See what you think.

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EURGBP has rolled over

I think EURGBP has rolled over in the big picture.

Here is the chart.

It maybe worth watching that today at lunchtime.

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One of the scenarios last week was USDJPY rolling over

If we look at different scenarios that could occur we are very often we are looking at the bigger picture.

If one then triggers then we can follow it for as long as its in play.

As it goes down then there are intermediate moves to be had to the down side.

I’ve marked them on this chart and shown the roll over.

I'm watching the US Dollar. It’s back in the Fib areas again and at some stage it could strengthen. If it does then I'll pick the pairs that will benefit.

The way I look at things is like this. I'll do some analysis and think there is a scenario which could play out. If it does then I'll trade it.

I won’t trade it until the timing is right in the time frame I'm looking at.

What happens with average technical analysis guys they think something has occurred, create a belief, jump in then get stopped out, jump in again get stopped out and when it does happen they're not on it. Their timing is not so hot and they get burnt.

Many times of course something looks good but it’s a fake and they get really burnt because they have just been fooled by the market. Timing is everything.

So I can see the Dollar index is back in the Fib areas and could strengthen but I'll wait to see what is happening in the time frames I'm watching.

One of the hardest things when we are trading is grinding out profits intraday when things are quiet or setting up for something bigger.

Especially if everyone is telling us that something big has occurred in the charts.

Sometimes we can jump the gun only to find that out that the big thing we thought would happen has just been a pullback or another consolidation.

Sometimes things just need time to play out a bit before we can see what’s happening. That’s why making profits intraday can be hard. It’s a waiting game.

At the moment the US Dollar is back in the Fib area. I think it can hold down here and strengthen again. So I’ll set the system chart to indicate in a slightly bigger time frame when that might be.

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My predictions for 2013 are this.

Inflation is rearing its head and everything is starting to cost more, this wont stop and will only continue.

Keeping money on deposit is a waste of time and people will slowly realise that if they don't do something positive with their savings they will only drop hugely in real terms. In five years time they will wonder what has hit them. Wages will still be low and ordinary day things will be very expensive. Sensible people will start taking action in 2013 to protect themselves and many will start investing and trading the markets.

The Yen will be volatile and worth traders keeping a close eye on it in the year ahead.

The S&P futures will continue its up trend because Obama and the FED are committed to it.

The EURO will continue to rise unless a catastrophic event occurs. They have just done enough to keep things ticking along OK.

Gold will fall not rise in the near term.

The game is up for Apple and the shorts will jump on it until they drive it so low that it becomes worth buying again.

The US market will be the place to be and all the major moves will be directed from there.

Have a happy Christmas.

U.S. Index futures slumped.

Asian shares declined and the yen strengthened.

The U.S Index futures have slumped, meanwhile Asian shares have declined and the Chinese YEN has strengthened after House Republican leaders cancelled a planned vote that would permit higher taxes amid stalled budget talks.

The delay in the budget talks is strengthening the US Dollar and the YEN.

You can see how all this is reflected in the Dollar Index.

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Whilst day trading you need to understand exactly what’s going on underneath because when the underlying story reaches its conclusion that’s when you get your blow out moves.

When you are right and you can feel it, trade it with larger size.

You can make a week’s money on just one of those moves.

In the example from yesterday the EURJPY consolidated for so long that the US would either run the stops or go for the break.

That intra-day consolidation was key. However you had to be an intra-day trader to know it was happening.

The chief market analyst at “We want you to trade more securities.” is so busy he just writes about what’s happened and then makes up some technical analysis to look good. Then he gets it syndicated on the web and his company are happy.

Joe Bloggs reads it and takes his cue from that. You see how late they are to what’s occurring.

Find out what’s truly happening intra-day because you are there first. You are the ones that make the money all the rest are followers.

The key yesterday was the consolidation ringed. Where so many would take their end of day analysis is shown by the black arrow. Who is the winner? The web reader at the black arrow or the intra-day trader who knows what’s going on at the ellipse?

A quick lesson: “When you are right and you can feel it, trade it with larger size.”

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For the US markets and the US dollar, Lets substitute the S&P futures and the EURUSD.

There is a big correlation between S&P futures and the EURUSD.

Analysis of these two instruments can give us and edge in our day trading right down to the stocks we are trading.

These two instruments are the leaders, what they do galvanises the market and gives it its underlying direction. At times they will trade together and at times they’ll diverge and go their separate ways. When they diverge then one very often pulls the other back in line.

By understanding which one is the strongest at any one moment and the true leader we can get the heads up on the next market direction. Of course stocks are governed by how the S&P futures behave and therefore by understanding its movement helps us with our day trading.

Imagine finding a momentum stock poised to soar and the S&P futures set to move the same way, odds are you are on a winner and can get a very good run. Imagine finding the same momentum stock and the S&P futures due to collapse. Then after the initial euphoria that stock is likely to run out of steam quite quickly and fade.

The biggest Dollar cross is the EURUSD so watching that and the S&P futures helps us understand what the US markets and the US dollar are doing and gives us the heads up on the next potential market direction.

In the chart example the EURUSD is above S&P futures are below.

The S&P futures had been very lacklustre from the day before on the left and really only moved up because of the EURUSD dragged it up. When the EURUSD lost its momentum and went sideways the S&P futures collapsed shown by its black arrow. We now know the market is inherently weak. The next day as the S&P futures carried on its overnight drop, momentum suddenly powered into the EURUSD and once again lifted the S&P futures plus of course many, many stocks. This is shown by the red arrows.

We now know that at this moment in time we have a weak market that is only being held up by a weak Dollar. (This is showing its hand by the movement of the EURUSD which is strong. i.e. a weak Dollar and strong EURO.)

If the EURUSD stalls or any bad news comes out which affects it then the market has relative weakness against it and will drop. At this moment in time the EURUSD is the leader and the S&P futures is following. This gives us an edge in understanding what the underlying sentiment of the markets is and helps us take our trading decisions.

In essence these two tell us the big picture that’s occurring at any moment in time. Some traders trade stocks but equally there are some that just trade these two big leaders. I’ll show you how to do it all.

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Hi all,

My names Alan, I have been trading full time 15 years, I make most of my trades on the ES futures and the EURUSD. I like 5 minutes and 30 minute time frames.

Glad to be a member here.

cheers

Alan

Ok mate nice idea.

cheers mike

Remember only intra day traders know what’s really going on and can react first.

Everyone else will either be one day late or have some ridiculous theoretical reason why some imaginary move will occur.

Real time is key to what is happening.

When we are trading intra day and banking our smaller moves try and work what is truly going on underneath. What is really setting up. Remember you will know about it first and if you see it occurring then jump on the train because its leaving the station.

What ever you do, don’t go and listen to retail traders talking to other retail traders on the web. Don’t be fooled if they are chief market analyst for XYZ, that’s just someone who knows a bit more technical analysis than you do. He is employed by his company to give the crowd what they want to hear so they trade more.

Lets take the EURUSD on Friday. Whilst I’m trading it I said were down in the fibs by the ellipse in the morning. The only way we can get a run is to let the US session do it for us, the morning’s momentum has gone. So when the US come down and do the re test and it holds, and then we bounce, you know the odds are this is leading up to the breakout later in the day that so many people are watching for.

The train is starting to move. The next two pullbacks are buyable, shown by the arrows. Hit it hard and go for the run. You are in before everyone else.

Let everyone else talk about it afterwards, which is what they like doing. Let the gobbly gook technical analysis traders cancel their last ****** analytics and make new ones on Monday based on what just happened.

We saw it first, we traded it first and we’ll sell to those that join it late and take our profits. That is good trading.

That is how you make good profits.

Here is the EURUSD chart showing when we saw it setting up and how any of the pullbacks shown were great buying opportunities.

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