ddukic

Gold 28/09/2012 - 4h Chart Analysis
 
http://fxlisting.net/images/gold240-28092012.jpg
 
 
GOLD – 4 HOURS CHART
 
COMMENTS: A glorious chart. This is a chart for a seminar on technical analysis. The precision of the Fibo scale measuring the ascent of the Gold’s price since the 16th of May 2012 (this is back 4 and half months and about 250usd/oz) is very interesting. At the right top of the chart I estimated the next Fibo grade of this scale, at the level of 1.952,70usd/oz. Indeed, small “initial swings” extended, often, their exhaustion to the grade of 11,35 as shown in ths chart.
 
SUGGESTIONS: Today Friday, the Gold’s price will create a new local high as a result of the traders to “dribble” the “double top” set up. In most cases the proof of a strong top or bottom is a little away from the strong level itself. Is like the poker players paying just to see another deck card. In the meantime, the 50SMA will assist, if needed, supporting a short pull back, another “dribble” as Lionel Messi does. The channel appearing, at this stage guiding the price is denominated by the U4a and U4b blue trend lines clearly shown in the chart.
 
SUGGESTIONS: Whoever believed the 5.78 Fibo grade and yesterday decided to use it as support level thus opened long positions is a happy man/lady. Friends, keep them opened and cross your fingers that Gold’s price today, apart from the small additional profit that will most probably offer you, exceeds the “double top” psychological complex of most traders and continues its way looking at the stars. Stop loss for long positions the down crossing of the U1 blue trend line. If you want to protect some of your profits, set a trailing stop loss. Anyway, short positions will be considered only after the down crossing of the U1 trend line.

Gold 24/09/2012 - 4h Chart Analysis
 
http://fxlisting.net/images/gold240-24092012.jpg
 
GOLD – 4 HOURS CHART
 
COMMENTS: There is a film titled “Hard to die”. Have you seen it? The Gold’s price tried repeatedly during last week to exceed the 1.779,91usd level corresponding to the 6.85 grade of the relevant Fibo scale as shown in the chart. In the meantime the RSI is “diving” towards the “over sold” area, nevertheless the price does not lead the path of the RSI thus a new “divergence” of opposite direction occurs. The 50SMA is still effectively supporting the internal corrections of the Oil’s price.
SUGGESTIONS: The existing opened and running long positions continue while you minimize your exposure. In case the price exceeds the presently resisting level, you will increase your exposure again. New short positions can be opened only after the price “dives” below the 50SMA. The new short positions do not have a favorable (for traders) risk/reward ratio because of the supporting technical elements existing below the 50SMA.

Gold 20/09/2012 - 4h Chart Analysis
 
http://fxlisting.net/images/gold240-20092012.jpg
 
GOLD – 4 HOURS CHART
 
COMMENTS: Please observe how the traders confirm and re-confirm a certain level in order to reduce their uncertainty. This way, the Gold’s price “tried” already three times the 6.85 Fib grade-level at 1.779,91usd. Obviously, the supporting action of the 50SMA helped the recent activity of the price. It is rare to observe a waves’ sequence of similar time frame exceed the 6.85 Fib grade-level. If it happens, the price will continue moving in a different-longer time frame-time cycle frame. Otherwise, at the present level you will observe the beginning of a correction that by the passing of time may develop in trend reversal.
SUGGESTIONS: For as long as the price remains above the 50SMA you keep “long” direction eventually increasing your long exposure. Attention though, the increase of exposure requires tight follow up of the price evolution. You should not leave your monitor un-attended. Once the price crosses from above the 50SMA and the U1 trend line you must consider the “short” direction. The downwards target is set at the level of the 200SMA at the time of crossing with the falling price, an attractive risk/reward ratio.