ddukic

Gold 03/10/2012 - 4h Chart Review and Analysis

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GOLD 4 HOURS CHART

SUGGESTIONS: Same as the Oil chart. Traders move with discipline performing the absolute minimum trades to justify their salaries and unconvinced about the near future. As you may understand, when someone feels sure, convinced about an issue, any issue, even issues pertaining to personal life’s matters, he/she acts quickly and with determination. This is the moment that trends are created. Otherwise, all of us, slow down, we temporize, we want more evidences to make up our minds, “in bref” we hover around a decision that we don’t want to take. In trading similar circumstances should find you without positions. You have nothing to win staying in this limbo status.

EUR/USD 03/10/2012 - Daily, 4h and 1h Chart Analysis

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EUR/USD 4 HOURS CHART

SUGGESTIONS: For the last 48 hours of trading the parity is side stepping compressed between two strong levels. I don’t suggest opening new positions using the 4 hours time chart. It does not give you any sign that will allow you to open positions with small stop loss cost. The levels of stop loss both for Long and Short positions are far away from the present parity’s level. Nevertheless, please study this chart for using it as guide for positions opened based on the 1 hour chart.

EUR/USD 60 MIN

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SUGGESTIONS: Today, I will not add any comments. As a matter of fact, I will continue only with the Suggestions because what interests you at the end of the day is to know the trading strategy to apply. Let us start. Any opened long positions from lower levels (example: the two previous lows) will continue running. Stop loss the level immediately below the crossing of the two SMAs. New Short positions. You can open short positions with stop loss the recent local high pivot at 1,2960. New Long positions may be opened provided the parity does not go below the crossing of the two SMAs.

EUR/USD DAILY CHART

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SUGGESTIONS: As you can see we are still above the 200SMA level nicely supported and protected. With this chart you may have a more complete picture of the EUR/USD parity. To see successful Short positions you must observe the parity below the level of the 200SMA. Otherwise, the more we stay above it, the more a consolidation is created that may push the parity upwards. In this chart the environment is clearly indicating Long direction.

Dollar Index 02/10/2012 - Review and Analysis

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USD INDEX

COMMENTS: Unfortunately I cannot present a 4 hours chart for the USD Index too, in order to have a uniformity of time frame on all instruments and pairs we analyze. Anyway, let us be satisfied with the Daily chart. Day by day we proceed for the D2 upper trend line of the red channel D1-D2. As you can observe, the lows of most days are higher than the previous day/s thus creating a cautious but steady diagonally up move. In my opinion, the 200SMA will constitute one of the targets this correction would like to reach as it evolves. In the meantime, is possible for the 50SMA to be around there at the same tine creating in conjunction with the 200SMA a strong level that is expected to act as resistance.

SUGGESTIONS: When the price of the USD Index increases, the currencies included in it lose against the USD. If my forecast about the price going up to the forthcoming crossing of the two SMAs, you should keep your short positions on the currencies against the USD. Obviously, for all friends trading with CFD Brokers who offer CFD trading on the USD Index, you must keep your existing long positions opened until the forecasted crossing. For long positions on the currencies constituting the Index, or, short positions on the Index itself we will be talking after the Index’s price reaches the 200SMA. Anyway, today’s trading will give us a better sign for our forecasts.

Gold 02/10/2012 - 4h Chart Analysis

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GOLD

COMMENTS: I insisted that my Fibo scale, installed since many days in this position was a correct and successful forecast. The evolution of the Gold’s price proved me right. You see, the repeated efforts of the price to exceed the level of 1.784,17 usd, corresponding to the 6.85 grade of the mentioned Fibo scale, proved unsuccessful. The 6.85 Fibo grade is a far outside grade very close to the psychological limit of “greediness” particularly in the cases where its achievement is rapid. In other words, if you could multiply your investment by 6.85 times in short period of time, you have reached at a point where satisfaction is fulfilled and greediness is ready to take over. Most people avoid greediness and exit their positions, obviously trying to exit at the highest possible level. This is why you observe this side move up here. Several holders of long positions are closing them by “selling” them. This is how you close a long position. You sell it. Others which have long positions temporize waiting to see the evolution. Obviously, some others are buying up here constituting, most probably, the next losers.

SUGGESTIONS: Well according to my previous comments I can suggest to minimize or exit your long positions up here. In case the price continues upwards there is space and time to return opening long positions. The next target is some 200usd/oz higher. Whether to open or not short positions? I will suggest not to. The risk/reward ratio is not in your favor. You will take a risk that will be disproportionally high compared to the eventual profits.

Oil 02/10/2012 - 4h Chart Analysis

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OIL

COMMENTS: A positive trading session the one of yesterday. The price exceeded the 50SMA and thus creates the prospect for an upward continuation. As we said in our yesterday’s comments on Oil the supporting area created by the two “U” blue trend lines were enforcing a supporting zone that would eventually break downwards after severe selling pressure. SUGGESTIONS: Please use the same suggestions of yesterday. Strategically are still valid. Don’t forget the sudden volatility Oil presents quiet often. For your easy reference I quote here below the Suggestions of yesterday:

QUOTE

“SUGGESTIONS: Opened short positions from earlier remain opened looking to increase their short exposure in case the price moves below the two “U” trend lines. Obviously, the continuation of the Oil’s price residing above the two mentioned “U” trend lines and the eventual up breaking of the 50SMA, must be taken seriously into account and eventually force us to anticipate an eventual up move of the price with negative consequences for our short positions. We will anticipate, either, by drastically reducing our short exposure, or, by closing our positions and eventually turn them into long positions. In this way I also described the stop loss strategy of the already opened short positions. Now, for the ones wanting to open new short positions, please wait. It is not the right time. The two U trend lines and their aura generate a supportive environment that needs time to be weakening by the traders. It is evident that below these two “U” trend lines there is “glorious” space for new short positions. About long positions. I am not sure about existing and running long positions. If any, please close them below the “U” trend lines and AMEN. You can though start new long positions of small exposure to anticipate the eventual strong reaction at this level resulting to a reversal of the recent up to now correction into a return to upwards move. In this case stop loss level should be the one little below the U trend line/s.

UNQUOTE

EUR/USD 02/10/2012 - 4h and 1h Chart Analysis and Review

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EUR/USD 4h Chart Review

COMMENTS: Here too there is no significant change since the starting of trading sessions the night of last Sunday. As already mentioned, Monday’s trading is often explorative therefore no major activities or changes are usually observed. In details, traders tried to exceed twice the 50SMA just to fill their obligation to trade a certain amount per day. Nothing more. Nevertheless, there is a buildup of peculiar set up. Two strong opposite areas, graphically speaking, are confronted having the brown horizontal line as buffer.

SUGGESTIONS: Today, I will simplify my opinion to the much needed elements. So, above the brown horizontal line you go long. Below, you stay short. Obviously, the same brown line is used as stop loss limit for the contradicting long and short positions.

EUR/USD 60 MIN

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COMMENTS: We often repeat that all type of moves are born young (as a small swing in the beginning) and grow as the time goes on. Here, at the chart of the 60mins on the EUR/USD pair we have an example. At he utmost right side of the chart there is a possible “head and shoulders” formation being built up. In addition, at this right moment the parity is trying to exceed the 200SMA being at the same time compressed by the 50SMA that is acting as support from below. Hey, don’t you think that an “explosion” will be observed in a while? Of course.

SUGGESTIONS: Unfortunately this analysis will reach you after the “explosion”. By the time is uploaded and you visit it will take some hours. At that time you will observe the consequences of it. Anyway, just for demonstration I would like you to observe this 60min chart on EUR/USD and try to study the aftermath of the “explosion”. Obviously, above the 200SMA we open long positions and so on for the short positions.

GBP/USD Week 40 - Review and Analysis

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GBP/USD

COMMENTS: The Pound created a “double top” set up and stood there “hanging”. Many times, Monday morning in Europe is a quiet morning. The traders wait for their USA colleagues to animate the scenery. So, we will see what will happen after the opening of the USA trading. In the meantime, please observe the tandem horizontal evolution of the two SMAs signaling the parity of the average closing price for the last 50 weeks (almost one year) with the average closing price of the last 200 weeks (almost four years) . Inevitably, the tandem of these two SMAs constitutes a strong level.

SUGGESTIONS: For as long as the parity remains above, the parity will move upwards. Don’t forget that there is a kind of triangle being formed since 2009 signaling an eventual consolidation at these levels, an issue that may force this parity to explode at a given time in the near future. As the swings become shorter and shorter the possibility of an “explosion” increases. So, I I would stay out of this pair until the parity decide to come to terms with the two SMAs. Anything before that must be handled in charts of lesser time frame and thus constitute positions that will last short times.

Oil 01/10/2012 - 4h Chart Analysis

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COMMENTS: There is not much to comment at this time of Monday regarding the Oil. I added the blue trend line U signaling two significant lows and marked the existing red channel d1-d2. Now, the trend line coming from 1 Dec 2009 is a strong psychological level therefore the Oil’s price hovers around it waiting for the opportunity to move away. At the same time, the price is below the 50SMA that is playing its resisting role.

SUGGESTIONS: Opened short positions from earlier remain opened looking to increase their short exposure in case the price moves below the two “U” trend lines. Obviously, the continuation of the Oil’s price residing above the two mentioned “U” trend lines and the eventual up breaking of the 50SMA, must be taken seriously into account and eventually force us to anticipate an eventual up move of the price with negative consequences for our short positions. We will anticipate, either, by drastically reducing our short exposure, or, by closing our positions and eventually turn them into long positions. In this way I also described the stop loss strategy of the already opened short positions. Now, for the ones wanting to open new short positions, please wait. It is not the right time. The two U trend lines and their aura generate a supportive environment that needs time to be weakening by the traders. It is evident that below these two “U” trend lines there is “glorious” space for new short positions. About long positions. I am not sure about existing and running long positions. If any, please close them below the “U” trend lines and AMEN. You can though start new long positions of small exposure to anticipate the eventual strong reaction at this level resulting to a reversal of the recent up to now correction into a return to upwards move. In this case stop loss level should be the one little below the U trend line/s.

EUR/USD 01/10/2012 - Daily, 4h and 1h Chart Analysis

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COMMENTS: This parity stayed too long supported by the 200SMA on the Daily chart here above (right side). In the middle chart, the one of 4 hours this parity was supported too, although by a different set up that we cannot observe in the daily chart that shows fewer details than the chart of 4 hours. In the chart of 60minutes (left side) the parity already reacted moving higher. Obviously, we will follow the evolution of the parity within the 60 minutes chart and progressively we will evaluate its path in the next higher time frame chart.

SUGGESTIONS: In general we are still in a “short” terms environment. The small reaction presented in the 60 min chart may constitute the beginning of a stronger up move nevertheless there is nothing to demonstrate it at this time, unless someone may have a “vision”. So, we still keep the short positions running although we are a little scared about the supporting strength shown by the underlying parity’s level. I suggest you get covered. Either reduce short exposure or close the short positions. Having intact capitals allow you to trade at any time. The non capitals are bad new. So protecting your capital is your foremost care. A first indication of a new up correction would be the up breaking of the d1-d2 red down channel of the 60 min chart. Guys, keep calm. We may be running an important pivot in the EUR/USD parity. Keep y0ur alert level high.

4h Chart

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60min Chart

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EUR/USD 28/09/2012 - Daily and 4h Chart Analysis and Review

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EUR/USD 4 HOURS & DAILY CHART

COMMENTS: Today, I post two EUR/USD charts together in order to show you how you should exploit the charts of different time frames. The obstacle that supported until this moment the correction that was developing is the 200SMA of the Daily Chart. As we said previously, higher time frame charts give stronger indications and thus should be respected more against findings from lower time frame charts. The second reason for the small rebound during yesterday’s end of trading is due to the 0.25 Fibo grade on the 4 hours chart. Both elements combined constitute a strong support. In case the parity will break this level we will see significantly lower parity’s levels, because of the downwards pressure that will be needed. Once the level broken, just by inertia the parity will continue further below. We have repeatedly warned about the congestion of various technical supporting elements of the brown horizontal line as shown in the chart of 4 hours.

SUGGESTIONS: The pivot to consider is the 200SMA on the Daily chart. For as long as the parity remains above the 200SMA we will be moving in a “long” environment, therefore, we keep the long positions opened, eventually with a small decrease of the long exposure. In case the parity returns above the previous local high we increase the “long” exposure aiming to targets up to 1,38 level. Observe in the 4 hours chart how fast the Stochastic (14,1,3) “climbed” to the overbought area. The ascension speed indicates a conspicuous buying action from the buyers. Stop loss of the long positions the level below the 200SMA of the Daily Chart. This level will also constitute the one to initiate short positions with stop loss just above the same 200SMA.

Gold 28/09/2012 - 4h Chart Analysis

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GOLD – 4 HOURS CHART

COMMENTS: A glorious chart. This is a chart for a seminar on technical analysis. The precision of the Fibo scale measuring the ascent of the Gold’s price since the 16th of May 2012 (this is back 4 and half months and about 250usd/oz) is very interesting. At the right top of the chart I estimated the next Fibo grade of this scale, at the level of 1.952,70usd/oz. Indeed, small “initial swings” extended, often, their exhaustion to the grade of 11,35 as shown in ths chart.

SUGGESTIONS: Today Friday, the Gold’s price will create a new local high as a result of the traders to “dribble” the “double top” set up. In most cases the proof of a strong top or bottom is a little away from the strong level itself. Is like the poker players paying just to see another deck card. In the meantime, the 50SMA will assist, if needed, supporting a short pull back, another “dribble” as Lionel Messi does. The channel appearing, at this stage guiding the price is denominated by the U4a and U4b blue trend lines clearly shown in the chart.

SUGGESTIONS: Whoever believed the 5.78 Fibo grade and yesterday decided to use it as support level thus opened long positions is a happy man/lady. Friends, keep them opened and cross your fingers that Gold’s price today, apart from the small additional profit that will most probably offer you, exceeds the “double top” psychological complex of most traders and continues its way looking at the stars. Stop loss for long positions the down crossing of the U1 blue trend line. If you want to protect some of your profits, set a trailing stop loss. Anyway, short positions will be considered only after the down crossing of the U1 trend line.

Dollar Index 28/09/2012 - Daily Chart Analysis

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DOLLAR INDEX – DAILY CHART

COMMENTS: Today, in order to follow closer the EUR/USD parity, I post in addition to the two EUR/USD charts already posted earlier, the daily chart of the DOLLAR INDEX. The predominant elements of this daily chart are the two Fibo Retracement scales marked with red and blue arrows. Please observe the latest swing of the Dollar Index’s price on the blue Fibo Retracement scale. Do you remember you first approach to Fibo, when books of technical analysis and related videos were talking to you about the various grades? Well? Was the 0.50 grade of the blue Retracement Fibo scale able to reverse the course of the price?. Of course it was. A few days later, was the 0.38 grade of this same Fibo scale to re-reverse the course? Of course it was. What is next? Only God knows. We, humans unable to read the future, we can only try to guess. The best option is to limit the chances to 50/50 or as it is called in the roulette, red or black. In FOREX it is called, up or down.

SUGGESTIONS: The question is: Did the correction from the level of 78,85 points exhausted its course, or, yesterday’s negative trading day constitutes a simple pull back and the price few days later will continue its corrective course? The reply will tell us whether to be long or short on the currencies included in this Index against the USD. The correction running from the level of 78,85 points, most probably, motivated some of you to open short positions on the individual currencies against the USD. Indeed, all corrective days were within the limits of the small channel created since the 78,85 level. This is how a trend is built. The corrective days do not exceed previous lows. So, stay on your short positions against the individual currencies waiting further developments. Obviously, whenever the Dollar Index crosses from above the level of 79.53 points (0.50 grade of the red Fibo scale), either you minimize your existing exposure, or, you close the short positions mentioned above. At this point, when the DX crosses from above the 79,53 level start thinking about long positions on the individual currencies composing this Index. If there are CFD Brokers offering CFD’s trading on the Dollar Index, you trade in the contrary of the suggestions given until now.

Oil 28/09/2012 - 4h Chart Analysis

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OIL – 4 HOURS CHART

COMMENTS: Indeed, there is no way for a price to neglect checking a trend line originating three or four years back. This is a sure betting. So, the Oil’s price, faithful to the tradition rebounded on the U blue trend line originating from 2009. Mind you, this time is reconfirming the famous “U” blue trend line from above since the effort to break it, for the time being, failed. No more of analysis.

SUGGESTIONS: This is a challenging set up. The questions to reply are: 1. To be or not to be?. Sorry, this is a question from another play. We start all over again. First question: Are we only “pulling back” to continue higher?, or, the local previous high of 100usd was the exhaustive level of a previous larger pull back (77$ - 100$) and what we observe is the beginning of a fall that may bring the Oil’s price to levels below the previous local low of 77$?. How can we find out what price set up/ time set up will give us the reply to these two questions? That is technical analysis. The reply is obvious provided you have drawn in the chart correctly the correct tools and studies of technical analysis and you have the curiosity to find out whether you can come to a conclusion from the issues you observe and thus guess what is next.

So, the U trend line represents “all the money” there is. Above it you stay long and eventually earn good profits provided you “play your cards” intelligently. Don’t forget, the price will not climb like an elevator installed in a high building. Will rather move like a roller coaster. On the contrary, below the U trend line you will feel the “short” environment. In both the long and short scenarios, the stop loss strategy is created with the U trend line as focal point. Good luck folks!!

Oil 27/09/2012 - 4h Chart Analysis

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OIL 4 HOURS CHART

COMMENTS: If you had the chance to view the video trading analysis posted yesterday forecasting the evolution of the Oil’s price, you had already appreciate its accuracy. Sooner or later the price will try to test the 50SMA by loosing time either, by side stepping, or, by a fast short correction. In case the price does reverse at the 0.382 Fibo grade instead of continuing its fall, the present correction is an internal “pull back” to be followed by a main trend continuation that will take the price above the 100usd level. Vice-versa, in case the price continues falling below the 0.382 Fibo grade, the reliability of a scenario wanting the price to return rising is reduced. In this case the price will target levels around the 80,00usd (0.618 and 0.78 Fibo grades as shown in the chart).

SUGGESTIONS: I hope you are holding short positions as a result of the strategy we set up yesterday. Hang in there, Reduce a little your “speed” in other words “short exposure” but hang in the short positions. Once, below the 0.382 Fibo grade, you re-accelerate. Stop loss, if you want to follow the popular saying: “cut your losses short and leave you profits running”, I suggest you to apply a “trailing stop loss” strategy. The stop level that closes completely your short position is above the 91,46usd. For new short positions wait the developments of the Fibo grade 0,382. Long positions must be considered after the finalization of the “love story” between the price and the 0.382 Fibo grade. Until then you keep quit and calm.

Oil 27/09/2012 - 4h Chart Analysis

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OIL 4 HOURS CHART

COMMENTS: If you had the chance to view the video trading analysis posted yesterday forecasting the evolution of the Oil’s price, you had already appreciate its accuracy. Sooner or later the price will try to test the 50SMA by loosing time either, by side stepping, or, by a fast short correction. In case the price does reverse at the 0.382 Fibo grade instead of continuing its fall, the present correction is an internal “pull back” to be followed by a main trend continuation that will take the price above the 100usd level. Vice-versa, in case the price continues falling below the 0.382 Fibo grade, the reliability of a scenario wanting the price to return rising is reduced. In this case the price will target levels around the 80,00usd (0.618 and 0.78 Fibo grades as shown in the chart).

SUGGESTIONS: I hope you are holding short positions as a result of the strategy we set up yesterday. Hang in there, Reduce a little your “speed” in other words “short exposure” but hang in the short positions. Once, below the 0.382 Fibo grade, you re-accelerate. Stop loss, if you want to follow the popular saying: “cut your losses short and leave you profits running”, I suggest you to apply a “trailing stop loss” strategy. The stop level that closes completely your short position is above the 91,46usd. For new short positions wait the developments of the Fibo grade 0,382. Long positions must be considered after the finalization of the “love story” between the price and the 0.382 Fibo grade. Until then you keep quit and calm.

GBP/USD - 26/09/2012 - 4h Chart Analysis

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GBP/USD 4 HOURS CHART

COMMENTS: This parity started correcting as you can observe in my today (26/9/2012) relevant posting. The parity crossed, unequivocally, from above the 50SMA and continues its path downwards. The blue trend line u2 may play a supporting role that can eventually delay the fall. From its (u2) past course, this trend line is not expected to present a very strong supporting. If this appreciation is correct, the parity will continue its fall till the next strong supporting level, the 200SMA.

SUGGESTIONS: Stay “short”. If you like, increase slightly your short exposure. Set as stop loss just above on one of the previous local highs. It is not the “season” for “long” positions.

Dollar Index 26/09/2012 - Daily Chart Analysis

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COMMENTS: Today 26 September 2012, I also post on FXListing.net the corresponding daily chart for the Dollar Index. The price of the Dollar Index returned above the 0.50 grade of the Fibo Retr scale and re-entered in the D1-D2 red channel. Obviously this correction since the low of 78,71 points corresponds to the same correction you may observe in the daily chart of the EUR/USD pair. Naturally, the EUR/USD pair is among the main components of the Dollar Index.

SUGGESTIONS: For as long as the Dollar Index price remains above the 0.50 Fibo grade, you stay “short” on all currencies composing the Dollar Index, against the USD. Vice versa, in case the price crosses from above the 0.50 Fibo grade and for as long as it stays below, you keep “long” positions on all currencies participating in the DX against the USD.

EUR/USD 26/09/2012 - Daily Chart Analysis and Suggestion

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EUR/USD DAILY CHART

COMMENTS: Today 26 Sept 2012, I will be using a daily chart for the trading analysis. The daily chart expresses better the happenings in this parity since last Friday. As you observe the parity is approaching from above the 50SMA that will present a supporting action. Looking at this point of the chart under Elliott’s Wave theory combined with Fibo relation between the various grades of the Fibo scale measuring specific Elliott’s Waves, we may convincibly sustain that recent local high may easily represent the exhaustion of the “bear market rally” from the local low of 1,20usd about. If such scenario will be proved reliable the return to a weak Euro will be a “one way” road that could lead this parity to levels significantly lower than the recent low of 1,20 about. Alternatively, the 50SMA supports in the very near future the parity thus a reversal is created and the parity returns to move upwards.

SUGGESTIONS: The existing short positions remain opened until the crossing between parity and the 50SMA. At this forthcoming crossing, either, you minimize your short exposure, or, you close the short positions. As far as the stop loss strategy, by keeping the short positions opened, you are obliged to make a “trailing stop loss” strategy in order to protect your profits. For long positions or for new short positions, or for increasing your exposure on previously opened short positions, the crossing of the parity and the 50SMA constitutes the “trading pivot” point. For new long positions, the stop loss is set below the 50SMA. For new short position that will be opened after the parity crosses the 50SMA, stop loss level is set little above the 50SMA.

EUR/USD 25/09/2012 - 4h Chart Review and Analysis

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EUR/USD 60 MIN ENGLISH

COMMNETS: The parity is still below the U1, blue trend line. As per yesterday's suggestions, once the parity would pass below this U1 trend line, new short positions were supposed to be open with stop loss a little above the same blue trend line U1. So, I suppose that similar positions already exist. If you did not open these "short" positions you still can do it conditioned by the inability of the parity to go above the U1 trend line. The red channel d1-d2 may be the "avenue" that will guide the parity's very near future path.

STRATEGY SUGGESTIONS: For as long we stay below the U1 trend line it is "short". Stop loss a little above the U1. Remember that prolonged moves exhausting at Fibo grades like 4.25 or 6.85, very often, may correct the previous trend, all the way down to its minimum swing, or, otherwise called, its basis. As far as any long positions, still profitable, because already opened at earlier levels, you should drastically decrease their exposure.

EUR/USD 24/09/2012 - 4h Chart Analysis

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EUR/USD – 4 HOURS CHART

COMMENTS: The subject chart expresses best the present set up of this parity that was compressed during the trading of last week between the brown horizontal line and the blue trend line U1. The role played by the two Fibo scales marked respectively with blue and red arrows, is evident, the grades of both scales play the role of support and resistance levels on the path of the parity’s evolution.

SUGGESTIONS: As it looks right now, the most probable forecasted direction is downwards provided the parity does not gain a position above the brown horizontal line. So, any new short positions keep their status and you must be ready to increase your short exposures in case the parity falls. You set your stop loss a little above the brown line. If you prefer the long direction, you must wait for the parity to clear the previous local high achieved during the trading of last Friday.

Gold 24/09/2012 - 4h Chart Analysis

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GOLD – 4 HOURS CHART

COMMENTS: There is a film titled “Hard to die”. Have you seen it? The Gold’s price tried repeatedly during last week to exceed the 1.779,91usd level corresponding to the 6.85 grade of the relevant Fibo scale as shown in the chart. In the meantime the RSI is “diving” towards the “over sold” area, nevertheless the price does not lead the path of the RSI thus a new “divergence” of opposite direction occurs. The 50SMA is still effectively supporting the internal corrections of the Oil’s price.

SUGGESTIONS: The existing opened and running long positions continue while you minimize your exposure. In case the price exceeds the presently resisting level, you will increase your exposure again. New short positions can be opened only after the price “dives” below the 50SMA. The new short positions do not have a favorable (for traders) risk/reward ratio because of the supporting technical elements existing below the 50SMA.

UR/USD 20/09/2012 - 4h and 60min Chart Analysis

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UR/USD 60min Chart

COMMENTS: The chart you observe is a blowup of the 60min chart I have posting since many days now. This chart is zeroing on the last few 60min trading as of the beginning of trading during last Sunday. As you can observe the parity moved within the d1-d2 channel and continues doing it. This right moment the 200SMA is set at 1,29706usd a level indicating the very next supporting level. Although the 60min chart is of short time frame, the 200SMA is always a level to consider. In addition to the 200SMA you must consider the 3.23 Fib grade-level that will enhance the supportive action of this area in general. So, a reaction must be expected. In case the parity “slips” through this level and the red channel d1-d2 surrenders there is a considerable fall to follow up to the 2.618 Fib grade-level.

SUGGESTIONS: The parity is compressed between the two SMAs. By the books, the 200SMA is stronger therefore: Please wait until the parity reaches around the 1,29446usd level to open positions on both directions. Keeping this level as trading pivot, you should set the relative stop loss levels for the long and short positions, respectively. The short positions already running must reduce exposure as the parity approaches the 1,29466 level. Good luck !!

EUR/USD – 4 HOURS CHART

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COMMENTS: The same supporting level described in the 60min chart is presented here too by the brown horizontal line indicating a strong level for which we discussed in previous days. By the manuals: “supports and resistances change identity into the exact opposite, once “broken” the first time”. So, on the way up the brown horizontal line was a resistance while now, on the way down, it is “transformed” in support. Technically, the described level includes too many supporting elements thus it would sound logical to forecast, at least, a delay in the evolution of the eventual further fall of the parity. Otherwise, the positive reaction of the up to now correction will “push” the parity to its next upward target of the4.25 Fib grade-level.

SUGGESTIONS: In combination with the suggestions given with the 60min chart, you can appreciate a larger picture view in order to sustain for longer time your successful positions.

Gold 20/09/2012 - 4h Chart Analysis

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GOLD – 4 HOURS CHART

COMMENTS: Please observe how the traders confirm and re-confirm a certain level in order to reduce their uncertainty. This way, the Gold’s price “tried” already three times the 6.85 Fib grade-level at 1.779,91usd. Obviously, the supporting action of the 50SMA helped the recent activity of the price. It is rare to observe a waves’ sequence of similar time frame exceed the 6.85 Fib grade-level. If it happens, the price will continue moving in a different-longer time frame-time cycle frame. Otherwise, at the present level you will observe the beginning of a correction that by the passing of time may develop in trend reversal.

SUGGESTIONS: For as long as the price remains above the 50SMA you keep “long” direction eventually increasing your long exposure. Attention though, the increase of exposure requires tight follow up of the price evolution. You should not leave your monitor un-attended. Once the price crosses from above the 50SMA and the U1 trend line you must consider the “short” direction. The downwards target is set at the level of the 200SMA at the time of crossing with the falling price, an attractive risk/reward ratio.

Oil 20/09/2012 - 4h Chart Analysis

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OIL – 4 HOURS CHART

COMMENTS: The Fib Retr scale marked with the blue arrow was measuring thr Retracement of the Oil’s price after the recent fall from the level of 106,35usd. The price after the low at the level of 77,52usd rebounded to the 0.78 Fib Retr grade-level, precisely there, and turned downwards again. The second Fib Retr scale marked with the red arrow is measuring the “fresh” falling path of the Oil’s price considering the low pivot of 77,52usd and the high pivot of 100,01usd. Presently the price hovers at the 0.38 Fib Retr grade-level of this second Fib Retr scale.

SUGGESTIONS: It is self understood that short positions already running opened remain opened waiting further developments. The absence of price’s reaction from this level will signal a further fall at the next down targets, the 0.618 and the 0.78 Fib grade-level marked with red arrow. The “surrender” of the 200SMA is a serious indication on the 4 hours chart. There is a possibility to see the price return to check the integrity of the 200SMA, this time as resistance element, before continuing its fall further down. Please forget “long” positions for some more time. You should wait for a substantially supporting level before you consider long positions. Also, you don’t forget: “don’t try to catch a falling knife”, if you don’t hold already a “short” position running, be careful in opening short positions fron now on. The price of Oil moves fast and you may be caught in the “wrong side of the road”.

Gold Week 38 - Review and Chart Analysis

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GOLD

COMMENTS: A serial of four consecutive positive weeks for the Gold brought its price just under the 0.618 Fib grade of the Fib Retr scale measuring the correction against the fall of the price between 5/9/2011 and 26/12/2011. The 0.618 Fib grade is an important pivot on every retracement Fib scale therefore this forthcoming week will give us new infos regarding the near future path of the Gold’s price.

SUGGESTIONS: The long running positions opened from earlier levels remain opened. There is an important element: the price crossed from below the long standing blue trend line guiding upwards the price of Gold late 2008 immediately after the last substantial correction of the price. On the other hand there is a “triple top” set up at the present level. I want to remind you that “triple tops” either accelerate the running trend, or, create reversals, easily exploitable.