fibo2618

 

 

See my overall forecast for eurusd on my post @ 7 Jan 2012:

http://indo-investasi.com/showthread.php/16643-EURUSD-forecast-07Jan2012-by-fibo2618

 

If you like my forecasts, please click on thanks, so I know that this is useful for someone and maintain my posts :)

This wave up now (probably wave 2 already, but could be wave 4) that started @1.3066 is able to go to 1.3186. enter short there with SL @1.3207. This wave up could break in 3 or 4 pieces, however at the end it should reach is target

very nice thanks.and As you can see the further course of the euro?followed by a wave up? or waiting for a wave back down

The gartley was missed by 10 points because of the trendline. I still maintain my forecast as of 7 Jan 2012. For me is going down as I forecasted. Who missed my forecasted entry @ 1.323 and this one still have a change. Just wait for wave 2 of this one forming now. I will predict where it could happen after.

Update

 

A Gartley is forming @ 1.3215. If it holds there, enter short for a long run down.

upadte last hour

 

This wave down that begins @ 1.3186 should end @ 1.3094. I guess it could go up until 1.3194. That should be a good short entry until maybe 1.2689 (Need confirmation of this target).

fibo2618,

 

i still consider the pattern which started at 16th jan as a corrective one (ZigZag) but not finished yet:

 

http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/830/eurusd22.gif/

 

Does this correspond with your actual outlook ?

Sixer

 

Sixer, I don't use that kind of patterns on my method.

Is not my way of counting waves.

 

Next Hot Zone reversal point is @ 1.3006

For those who have missed the entry short @ 1.323, this wave up now forming now from 1.3041, I think it should end @ around 1.318. That will be a good entry short. Good luck to all.

fibo2618,

 

if you found a harmonic pattern (AB=CD), why don`t you show it in post#1 ? Your problem is that you still have problems to detect corrective and/or impulsive patterns.

 

Sixer

 

Sixer,

First, I can't show everything, and yes, there is a lot more.

Second, I don't have any problems with corrective & impulsive because for my method it doesn't matter what you call it. I only want to find the end point of each wave. And that is what matters to make money. When I am catching the reversals, you still are counting waves and guess if is impulsive, corrective complex zigzag abcxy, etc.

And more interesting is that you all your wave knowledge, you don't have show any forecast to us.

fibo2618,

 

did you ever consider to count the move since the low of 16th jan as a corrective pattern ? E.g. as ZigZag or combination? This pattern is still unfolding.

 

Sixer

Sixer,

As stated on my graphic I don't follow Elliott wave rules strictly.

But for your info there is a pattern of AB=CD 100% on this leg that would finish @ 1.3235. You can see this more clearly on the daily chart.

I doubt that your software will find that one.

But more stronger that this pattern is the established target on the @ 1.3229.

From now on I expect to see a wave 5 down to finish this wave 2 (Yes, for me this is a wave 2 that begins 4 May 2011).

Now, lets wait for the next days and check who is right, me or the Elliot wave analysts.

I hope someone has made good money today with my forecast.

 

See overall forecats for eurusd on my post @ 7 Jan 2012:

http://indo-investasi.com/showthread.php/16643-EURUSD-forecast-07Jan2012-by-fibo2618

What indicator are you used ?

 

Wave count, fibos & trendlines.

STOPLOSS OR NO STOPLOSS

How about opening a trade with 200% confidence and NO stoploss.....you know where the price is going...

 

dannydon786,

 

The problem is that nobody knows where the price is going. We only think that we know...

If you will have a system with 100% guarantee that the price will go in one direction only 10 pips, then you really have the holly grail and you will be the richest man in the world.

Because the nature of the market with all those waves, nobody can real be sure what is going to happen. The stop loss is the guard for the failure of our convictions. If we make an order based that the price goes up, and then it goes down, then we have failed in our strategy and we should admit it and not hopping that one day the market will follow us going in our way.

Not using stop loss is the same that not admitting our failures when we really are wrong.

niftymover,

I am in.

osijek1289 ,

 

I dont know about you, but I depend on the graphics for the game. You have tried to excuse both Fxpro and Metatrader. For me there is no excuse. If there are issues then we the traders must know about and not discover it. After all is our money that is in the game. And let's say that that kind of issues are very profitable for the brokers.

And I dont know exactly who is the fault on this case, if from the broker or the platform. I have checked the FXpro web platform and the same graphic on the real account is correct, what makes me think that could be again a problem with metatrader, metaquotes or whatever.

 

Now for the trendlines.

Just look for the examples that I have recorded just now on the GPBUSD on metatrader (Alpari) and Prorealtime and Dukascopy.

Is the trendline broken yet? According to Metatrader, yes.

But the other 2 platforms are telling: NO!

Now, don't you think this deserve some attention? Is Metatrader reliable? I don't think so.

 

 

Metatrader GBPUSD15m

 

 

 

Prorealtime GBPUSD15m

 

 

and Dukascopy GBPUSD15m

 

It's all an issue with the historical data. There are tons of gaps in all timeframes

fibo2618 check your weekly candles where your chart stayed above 2194....there should be data missing

 

Well, I have deleted all my historical data on the real account and download a fresh one. Guess what? The same problem. The strange is, if there are gaps, then why that happens on a real account only? Doesn't the real account should be the more accurate?

This is strange because on my Alpari (MT4) it looks like your Prorealtime. The data feed is not a question of the platform but a question of the broker.

On the other hand I really do not believe that there is such a difference. I would accept a spike from your broker just to catch a stop loss intraday but again this is not happening any more with regulated brokers. Also you could have differences during news and this due to liquidity providers for the brokers.

Concerning the trendlines I agree that when you change time frame they get crazy. So if you draw a trendline on the 4h and then move to the 5 min the lines are not more where they should.

 

Capsmart,

You are right, Alpari looks like Prorealtime. And it seems is not a Metatrader fault.

And more strange or mailicious is that I have found that on my broker FXpro is only wrong on the real account, but correct on a demo. Strange, isn't it?

My guess is that they give me different data depending on the type of account, that's why I will get different results.

Could this only happens on my broker or is a common practice?

 

Here is my chart on the same installation and broker but on a demo account:

 

Look at the weekly EURUSD charts bellow. One is from Metatrader and other from Prorealtime (a professional data supplier).

Pay attention on the line @1.2149 where I think will be a reverse Up. As you can see that line is on a very different place on MT4 giving an idea that a resistance as been broken when in fact the reversal will be above the resistance line. Also I have notice very different results on trendlines.

 

Weekly chart from MT4:

 

Weekly chart on Prorealtime:

fibo2618,

 

before you must change your count again, you should study the “corrective” pattern, your impulse count is not correct – the “flat” which started beginning of oct is not finished yet:

 

Neely page 5-39: http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/265/if3.gif/

Price pattern since may 11: http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/249/eweurusd602112.gif/

 

Sixer

 

Sixer,

In practical terms, what you mean by "the “flat” which started beginning of oct is not finished yet"?

Do you think the price don't go in the direction as I pointed out on my last graphic?

Can you please share your forecast for eurusd?

Seems like wave 2 of 4th will finish soon and can go up to 1.36

 

Shithil, You may try to visit this page. You'll get the working links you are looking for

http://www.downarchive.com/ebooks/video_training/542421-how-you-can-identify-turning-points-using.html

 

wonderful. Thanks

Update