I have spent weeks denying this, because it sounds so risky.
However I am able to make 20+ trades a day with 90% or so win rate.
My stop losses are dynamic and generally I am either right or wrong, and if I am wrong I exit with a 1 or 2 pip loss.
Sometimes I get greedy and once my stoploss is at breakeven Ill setup a trailing stoploss however still working on rules for that...
My main question is, are there professional scalpers and if so when did you realise scalping was for you?
"My philosophy is that the market is always changing, it seems what used to work last year is no longer as valid this year."
Yes, the market does change all the time and yet it stays the same. The core principles and ideas do stay the same, but don't try to construct too elaborate approaches because they tend to be inflexible. I am afraid that your approach is just that: too elaborate. That was my first impression to your first posts. Try to be more flexible. You also mentioned some problems with your trading psychology. You need to fix those because otherwise no system will work for you. Often these problems are caused by undercapitalizion. I am not sure if that's your case, but it could be.
Background: I have noticed that specific currencies, within a single week, after price moved away from the week's open, will likely to either
(a) "revert back to the week's open price" at least once;
(b) or "run-away even further from the week's open price."
So here is my work-in-progress trading idea:
(a) 1st group applied to two currenncy pairs who like to "revert", and
(b) 2nd group are two currency pairs who like to "run-away":
"Reversion" Trade Rules:
(1) At start of week, place pending sell order (sell limit order) 90 pips above week's open price
(2) at the same time as (1), place pending buy order (buy limit order) 90 pips below the week's open price
(3) Set take profit at 90 pips
(4) Set stop loss at 90 pips
(5) On each currency, if one pending order is triggered, then cancel the opposite one (or you can use OCO order if your broker offers it)
(6) Before end of week, close all active orders, and cancel all pending orders
"Run-away" Trade Rules:
(1) At start of week, place pending buy order (buy stop order) 90 pips above week's open price
(2) at the same time as (1), place pending sell order (sell stop order) 90 pips below the week's open price
(3) Set take profit at 90 pips
(4) Set stop loss at 90 pips
(5) On each currency, if one pending order is triggered, then cancel the opposite one (or you can use OCO order if your broker offers it)
(6) Before end of week, close all active orders, and cancel all pending orders
Weekly start time and end time:
Although we probably do not need precise weekly start time or end time. But for the purpose of consistency, I have been using:
(1) Sunday 9 pm New York time price as the week's open price, and
(2) Friday 3 pm New York time for end of week.
Advantages of this trading idea:
(1) Very low time requirement
(2) No indicator or chart reading required
(3) Purely mechanical
(4) Can be mostly set-and-forget
(5) Somewhat balanced risk exposure to individual currency: Of the currencies involved (USD, CAD, EUR, CHF, GBP, JPY), only EUR and JPY have double risk exposure
(6) Somewhat balanced risk exposure to overall market behavior at the time (for example, if overall market favors strong trend, then at least the "Run-away" trades will shine. Likewise if market is mostly ranging, then the "reversion" trades will shine.)
(7) In my back test, each individual currency pair is profitable trading on its own. The "synergy" of trading all four pairs together seem to smooth out the equity curve somewhat.
Disadvantages of this trading idea:
(1) Very slow equity line growth (NOT a grow-rich-quick method)
(2) Probably more suitable as a supplementary method, and less suitable as a main trading method.
(3) Can have long losing streak, especially during the summer months for the "Run-away" trading pairs.
Final notes:
The reason I call this an "idea" (as opposed to "method" or "system"), and the reason I call this "work-in-progress", is I believe this still has much room for improvements. There are so many variables that can be further fine-tuned, like currency pairs used, level of target profit, level of stop loss, method of taking profit (use trailing stop? partial profit at 50%?), etc. So any suggestions for improvements are welcomed from friends here at II.
Note on Money Management:
Although I am trading this live; if anyone here is going to put real money in this, I would ALWAYS recommend (a) do your own due diligence first to see if this is truly your style of trading, and (b) maintain good money management. For example, anyone using Martingale for the JPY pairs will likely see their account wipe out. I know I am probably preaching to the choir, but just in case any new trader is reading this. ALWAYS have caution where money management is concerned.
A statement like that without mentioning the size of the correction you are predicting is not very meaningful. Sure, it may drop 200, even 500 points, but why would you want to bet on something like that when you can make much more on the long side in the long term. I have some long position in Diamonds and I am not unloading it until 14, 000. Put it on when the Dow was at 10,000. I think we will see 14,000 in the next 12 months. At least I feel much safer about the long side.
There is no such thing as miracle or magic indicator. Anyone selling one does not take you seriously. To become good at trading you need more than just an indicator (or two), no matter how magic it (they) can be...
joe_sixpack got a reaction from ⭐ dukeaugustus in One trade per week (a work-in-progress trading idea)
joe_sixpack got a reaction from alansim in (req) Forex King Indicator
