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Gold Still Bearish Bias

Tuesday, December 20, 2011

Gold began creeping up close to resistance at 1618.95. CCI in the 4-hour chart's seen already in the overbought area. As long as prices remained below the 1618.95 then the bias will remain bearish for gold so that the emergence of a bearish signal in a state like this now will likely be followed by a bearish move down to support at 1587.85. Breakdown of support would be bearish pressure increase up to 1560.05.

Beware of upward acceleration 1618.95 because it has the potential to push gold up to the next resistance at 1650.05.

News and Economic Review Asia (China)

China Shares Flat On Tight Liquidity Conditions

Tuesday, December 20, 2011

China's benchmark index ended flat Tuesday as tight liquidity conditions kept investors on the sidelines, with brokers led the declines.

Shanghai Composite Index, which tracks both A and B shares, ended down 0.1%, or 2.31 points at 2215.93. The Shenzhen Composite Index fell 0.4%, or 3.82 points to 909.02.

Analysts said they expect the market to keep the consolidated until the end of this year due to tight liquidity conditions may limit any rebound, despite concerns over the domestic economic slowdown may have been taken into account. Tips Shanghai index to trade in a range between 2100 and 2200.

"I think further downside in the market will be limited in the coming weeks because I am not pessimistic about China's economic prospects. I hope the level of economic growth to subside around 8.5% next year, which is still high compared with other countries," said Yonggang Tang, Hong Yuan Securities investment advisor.

"As more people become bearish, we become optimistic. We expect monetary policy fine-tuning will increase the liquidity of the economy and capital markets," said UBS Securities analyst Li Chen in a research note.

Another expectation is cut in reserve requirement ratio for banks comes after recent data showed China's financial system, including the central bank, saw a net outflow of foreign exchange for the second consecutive month in November.

China's central bank and financial institutions to sell shares of net CNY27.9 billion ($ 4.4 billion) of foreign currency in November, according to Dow Jones Newswires calculations based on data released by the central bank on Monday.

Brokerages led the decline as fears of their earnings outlook amid a weak market, with Soochow Securities down 4.9% at CNY7.41, Northeast Securities down 2.6% at CNY12.77 and Haitong Securities fell 2.0% to CNY7.76 .

Offsetting a loser, a manufacturer of cement rose sharply on bargain hunting after heavy losses recently, despite concerns over slowing growth may curb investment, analysts said.

Jiangxi Wannianqing Cement rose 9.1% to CNY10.05 after falling 16% during the previous six sessions, Anhui Chaodong Cement added 6.7% to CNY11.03 after a decline of 11% over the same period, while Fujian Cement ended 5.2% at CNY7. 48 after losing 13% during the previous six sessions.

News and Economic Review Europe (UK)

Touch level above 1 pound against the dollar last week

Tuesday, December 20, 2011

The pound rose to a level above one week against the U.S. dollar in session Tuesday, after the completion of the debt crisis signaled progress in Europe to support the demand for risky assets.

Market sentiment received support after European Union finance ministers agreed to boost the International Fund creatures of 150 billion euros by the European Union alianis support, to resolve the financial problems in the region.

UK refusal to participate would raise doubts whether the EU could reach 200 billion euros target.

Meanwhile, European Central Bank President Mario Draghi reiterated that the bond purchase program is temporary and is not infinite and said the economy in the European Union the possibility of a phase mamsuki recession next year.

The market also focuses on the Spanish bond auction of three and six months which will take place today.

GBP / USD touch the 1.5570 level during the European morning trading session, which is the highest level since December 13, after it had consolidated at the level of 1.5573, an increase of 00:48 percent. Sterling against the euro also noted an increase with EUR / USD down 0.8372 hit a 00:17 percent.

News and Review of European Economic

European Market Return 'Excited' After the German Ifo data

Tuesday, December 20, 2011

The majority of shares in major European markets traded higher on Tuesday, after the release of German business sentiment survey showed results that exceeded expectations. Yet the fall of AstraZeneca PLC stocks is still making the pharmaceutical sector depressed.

The results of the Ifo survey showed German business sentiment in December rose to 107.2 from 106.6 the previous month, which confront the expectations of a decline to 106.1 from economists. The market saw a positive response to these data, that lifts Germany's DAX index rose more than 0.8%.

"The increase in second consecutive month the index has shown that at least if the economy began to re-stabilized after a sharp slowing in 3 or 4 months before," said Jonathan Loynes, chief economist at Capital Economics.

While the French CAC 40 index tracked managed to collect approximately 0.85%, led the banking and automotive sectors. BNP Paribas SA shares trading around 3% higher, while shares of automaker Peugeot SA and Renault SA of each recorded an increase of 2.3% and 2.1%.

In Britain, the pharmaceutical sector looks still burdening the FTSE 100 index which so far have lost about 0.25%. AstraZeneca shares fell by 2.3% after the drugmaker said it would take pre-tax charge of $ 381.5 billion of research and development costs associated with the study medication.

News and Economic Review Europe (UK)

Darting Into Pound Highest Level 5-Day

Tuesday, December 20, 2011

Pound seems to obtain some of the strong demand in trading on Tuesday, which catapulted the GBPUSD up to the highest level of new 5-day in 1.5649. UK economic data released today also showed some improvement, with consumer confidence index released by the Nationwide up to 40 of the printed record lows in the previous month.

Nevertheless, the figures were still below the long-term average at level 77, which indicates if the struggle is still long to be able to return the sentiment becomes positive again.

"GBPUSD seems to try to approach the 1.5660 resistance zone, although these efforts may be temporary given the threat of profit-taking and low volume towards the end of the year," said Valeria Bednarik, chief analyst at FXstreet.com. "Daily Closing below 1.5660 may be signaling the continuation of short-term rally towards the 1.5730/70 zone which is a strong medium-term resistance. Just above the area clear effluence that will eliminate the overall bearish pressure seen on a larger timeframe," he added.

Irani Try Mute Oil Decrease

Monday, December 19, 2011

Try reducing the decline in oil prices in the London session as investors reconsider the possibility of Iranian oil embargo. Oil could touch 92.75 dollars a ragged due to the strengthening the appeal of commodities. Mighty dollar after the death of North Korean leader Kim Jong-il; anxious investors who will control the nuclear state.

Europe's debt problem has not letup also impose on the performance of black gold. Fitch credit rating outlook has been revised French; Moody's credit rating even lower due to anxiety Belgium absence of a solution to end the debt crisis. Investors are now waiting for the results of the teleconference meeting of euro zone finance ministers to look for further clues to the plan's debt crisis.

However, investors are also worried about the outlook for supplies as we get evidence of Iranian oil embargo. Indian companies have started talks with other oil suppliers to replace oil imports from Iran. South Korea prohibits investment in Iran's oil and gas sector as well as to blacklist some Iranian officials. Last week, the U.S. Congress also loloskan laws that allow the imposition of sanctions on Iran, including a broader energy and financial sectors.

News and Economic Review Asia (Japan)

Average wage in Japan tend to flat

Monday, December 19, 2011

Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare of Japan stated that the average earnings based on the annual period in October, reaching an increase of 0.1 percent in accordance with previous estimates. Meanwhile, in September, to wage employees decreased by 0.4 percent.

In October, there were regular wages declined 0.4 percent in October, while for overtime wages increased 2.9 percent.

As for the number of overtime hours, an increase in September, while in October decreased 0.1 percent.

News and European Economic Review (Poland)

Poland Will Lend € 6 M for the IMF

Monday, December 19, 2011

Finance minister Jacek Rostowski said Poland is planning to lend € 6 billion to the IMF in order to increase the capacity of financing to help members of the euro-zone is problematic. The funds are sourced from the reserves and National Bank of Poland will be released in phases based on the needs of the Fund; but the payments will stop automatically if the economic situation of Poland worsened.

In early December, the European meeting has agreed to provide funds of up to € 200 billion to the IMF to help combat the euro zone's debt crisis. Poland and several other members of the former Soviet Union, which now join the community of European Union-have been asked to participate on the funding for the IMF.

Meanwhile, the euro was trading lower on Monday though starting to look less decline in the New York session. EUR / USD is now trading 1.3028, 1.2982 daily lows stay away

News and Economic Review Europe (Germany)

Worry about the German Bundesbank Economic

Monday, December 19, 2011

Germany's economy will face a challenge in winter due to protracted debt crisis of the overload performance of exports, according to the German central bank. Economic growth may be a natural slowdown in 2012 after moving sideways during the winter 2011-2012, the Bundesbank monthly report. "There is uncertainty about the economic outlook. Improved domestic economic activity is still ongoing; but the debt crisis and the weak global economy impose on Germany's economic performance.

Early in December, Bundesbank Germany's economic growth has been revised to 0.6% for the year 2012; lower than the previous estimate of 1.8%. Bundesbank has warned against the threat of the debt crisis of the German economic performance-based exports. Bundesbank also worry about the uncertainty will be the ratio of government deficit in the coming years due to the impact of state rescue other euro-zone members and support for German financial institutions.

Meanwhile, the euro weakened on the New York session. EUR / USD is now trading 1.3020, down 21 pips from 1.3041 Monday opening price

News and Economic Review European (Spanish)

Spain Rising Bad Debts

Monday, December 19, 2011

Spanish bank bad loans rose for the seventh consecutive month and reached its highest level 16 years, according to data released by the Bank of Spain. 7.42% of bank lending has been past due more than three months; is higher than 7.16% September publication. This is the highest level since November 1994, and far from the level below 1% which was recorded prior to the property sector dropped in 2008.

Non-performing loans in October reached € 131.9 billion, equivalent to 13% of Spanish GDP. Total lending also fell to € 1.78 trillion in October; lower than the previous month publication € 1.79 trillion. The banking sector has difficulties to overcome credit losses in the real-estate sector and construction as the increase in euro-zone debt crisis and the worst economic slowdown in the last decade.

Meanwhile, the euro weakened entering the New York session. EUR / USD is now trading 1.3013, 1.3043 daily stay away from high-level

Gold Rise on Weekends

Friday, December 16, 2011

Gold futures began to recover in the trading session on Friday (16/12). Some of the reasons behind the weakening gold last few hours.

Throughout this week, gold has been dragged down by worries of investors against the European crisis. If the first precious metal is seen as an ideal safe haven, now faded charm in the middle of dollar appreciation.

In addition triggered by global concerns, the weakening trend of gold investment carried at the end of the year. Many investment institutions began to cut positions and liquidate holdings to seek a balance sheet. The higher the level of losses on assets other risky investments, the greater the volume of the removed position.

Dollar tumbled since yesterday despite some positive data was released. Spanish bond auction results are good so that helped support the euro exchange rate USD began to fall. Deutshe Bank and Credit Agricole seen that the gold correction so far do not reflect the real prospect in the future. Negative real interest rates, fundamental risk and volatility in the stock market strongly support the increase. Agricole even mention there are 3 important factors to shore up prices, which is still high interest in the physical as well as the action of central banks and the entire stock capital. It's still coupled with the possibility of quantitative easing and asset diversification requirements of investment managers.

Gold for February delivery rose $ 10.90 (0.7%) to as low as $ 1,588.00 per ounce. Precious metals successful anti-inflation erodes the weekly loss to about 7.5% (data FactSet). When news of this writing, gold was at $ 1591.20 per ounce with a daily high at $ 1592 (MetaTrader chart).

Asian Economic News and Reviews

Asian Markets Focus Next Week

Friday, December 16, 2011

Europe's debt crisis is still the main focus of the Asian market, especially we have seen that the Asian regional markets weakened during the second consecutive week, reaching a total decline of about 5% since the results of the European summit disappointing investors.

These uncertainties will still continue to hit the market, depending on the resolution that can be provided by European policy makers to address the debt problem in the short and medium term that could be implemented next year. If no resolution can be expected that Europe is substantial among this week's rally until the end of the year will not happen.

European crisis zone itself has an impact on countries like Japan, where investors can see the hint of this situation of Japan's import export report before its release next week's BoJ meeting. Other data are awaited industrial output among other reports from Taiwan and Singapore who can give an indication of global demand.

In Asia, the other key reports are from the China property sector, with the release of China's house price report next week, which is a key factor to the outlook for the country.

News and Review of European Economic

Assume Dudley Issues Political Issues In Europe Only Problem Not Fiscal

Friday, December 16, 2011

New York Fed President William Dudley has begun testimony before the U.S. Congressional panel this evening where William Dudley said he did not expect the Fed to take additional steps to address the impact of European debt crisis on the U.S. economy.

He also argued that the U.S. dollar lending program under the auspices of the U.S. Fed will support the pressure from Europe to protect and maintain the availability of credit to U.S. households and businesses.

Yet Dudley acknowledged that the Fed will monitor closely developments in the European crisis, so the Fed has taken specific steps in cooperation with several other central banks to encourage credit flows to households and businesses.

According to Dudley, the European region actually has the fiscal capacity to address the financial challenges facing today, but political feuds in the region proved more difficult than previously thought, whereas political factors are very crucial to coordinate the necessary steps they take in order to achieve the policy objective response are effective.

News and Review of European Economic

Maintain a Stable Euro Strengthening

Friday, December 16, 2011

The euro currency rose slowly but surely come back in a relatively quiet trading session in Europe ahead of the Christmas holiday. While the yield on the eurozone bond market is still stable.

Monitored by far the EURUSD currency pair rose 0.49% to a level of 1.3078, after reaching its highest level today at 1.3083, while the lowest daily at 1.3004 area. While the U.S. dollar index dropped -0.39% to a level of 80.03. The volume of currency contracts are still relatively small so that the movement of major currencies as a whole is not too large.

Previously many investors had fooled by rumors that the rating agency S & P will lower the credit rating of Italy and Spain, as the entire European Union countries in a negative outlook, the downgrade of course still very open opportunity. However, after the rumors were not confirmed, the perpetrators managed to recover sentiment and trigger a relief rally in the EURUSD.

News and Economic Review Europe (Italy)

Vote of Confidence Coming Monti Get Senate Vote

Friday, December 16, 2011

Ahead of the Italian parliament voted to approve the budget austerity measures Italy, Italian Prime Mario Monti won the confidence vote / vote of confidence from other officials.

This indicates that the proposed budget savings package Monti likely to be approved by the Italian Parliament.

According to political observers, Monti won a vote of confidence with a solid with no visible presence of the two sides clash at all. Then it can be expected that parliament will vote for the next Italian budget savings plan will run smoothly.

Gold steady amid slow Europe

Thursday, December 15, 2011

Gold steady today after falling 3.5 percent in the previous session, but the price is still low in the range of two and a half months because investors are still worried about the European crisis that could bring down prices at the end of the year.

Asian markets, the euro and commodity slowly rose from the decline due to fears of a widespread crisis that Italy also raise their loan rates. Pessimism will make the European zone of gold fell to its lowest point in September. Other metals such as silver and platinum also fell drastically due to the slow economic growth.

Gold rose 0.1 percent to 1576.20 dollars per ounce, after experiencing its largest daily decline for nearly three months. U.S. gold fell 0.5 percent to 1.579 dollars. Meanwhile, investors wait for the Spanish bond auction today, as well as sales data for manufacturing, handling the crisis to reach agreement.

Prices tend to vary by the end of the year because many people who decided to close the yearbook and move toward the market, hoping to start better.

In addition to the up and down the gold price, exchange SPDR Gold Trust, the biggest gold storage company in the world, unchanged at the level of 1,294,765 tons by December 14. Gold reserves fell 0.6 tons compared to a decrease in gold prices as much as 8 percent.

News and Economic Review Asia (Japan)

Translucent support level, the Nikkei index ended down

Thursday, December 15, 2011

Japan's Nikkei index slipped to below the closure level in the last two weeks in the session Thursday, penetrate below the level of the average movement in 25 days, after worries about Europe's debt to bury risk appetite, with investors waiting in the Spanish bond auction today.

Olympus Corp. shares fell more than 20 percent after the scandal-hit company repeated its earnings results on Wednesday sessions, showing the difference between $ 1.1 billion on its balance sheet after the accounting fraud during the 13 years that has claimed the company.

Bank of Japan was likely to buy funds that are traded on the stock exchange as part of a program to increase liquidity, said the perpetrators, but only provide limited support.

The benchmark Nikkei fell 1.7 percent to a level of 8,377.37. Thin volume, with only 1.54 billion shares changed hands on the main trade, compared with about 1.52 billion on Wednesday sessions. The broader Topix index fell 1.6 percent to a level of 725.02.

On this day, the Spanish Treasury plans to issue between 2.5 to 3.5 billion euros in debt securities maturing in January 2016, April 2020 and April 2021 which will be the last bond auction this year.

News and Review of European Economic

Euro Trying To Recover

Thursday, December 15, 2011

The euro rose on the New York session after the good results of the Spanish bond auction and the index of manufacturing & repair services of Europe managed to reduce investor fears of the threat of recession. Spain managed to collect money € 6.03 billion; exceed a target of € 3.5 billion with lower borrowing costs. Index of manufacturing and services rose to a level respectively 46.9 and 48.3, better than forecast and the publication in November.

"The Spanish bond auction is pretty good. Madrid managed to collect a lot of money without having to pay even higher. Best of publications indexes of manufacturing and services also provide a positive impact," said Jane Foley, analyst at Rabobank International. "Today the euro received fewer negative news and this course can trigger recovery, "said Geoffrey Yu, a strategic UBS.

Meanwhile, the euro strengthened at the London session. EUR / USD is now trading 1.3043, 1.2957 daily lows stay away

News and Economic Review Europe (Germany)

Expansion of Private Sector in Germany in December

Thursday, December 15, 2011

Activity in the German private sector expanded in December, driven by gains in service sector and less sharp decline in manufacturing, according to purchasing managers survey.

Markit Economics on Thursday (15/12), said the composite Purchasing Managers Index rose to 51.3 in December from 49.4 in November, above the 50.0 that distinguish expansion from contraction and the highest level for four months.

That is the best result of expectations, largely due to a surprise rise in activity in the services sector. Part of the economy PMI rose to 52.7 from 50.3 in November, the result is stronger than forecast a decline to 49.9 from economists.

The manufacturing sector is also done very well, although activity continued to decline. Part of the economy PMI rose to 48.1 from 47.9 to reach its highest level for two months. Economists estimate down to 47.5.

Markit warned that new orders are still weak, the increase in December on the overall activity may not proceed.

"Activity in the higher service in the meantime has become a pillar of support for the output of Germany as a whole in recent months," said Tim Moore, an economist at Markit Economics.

However, new business in this sector has barely risen in the second half of this year, and cost pressures remained elevated, which makes it difficult backdrop for approaching new year. "

News and Economic Review Europe (Italy)

Experiencing Italian Recession

Thursday, December 15, 2011 19:12 pm

Minister of Industry, Corrado Passera said Italy is now in a recession but is still able to come back please register growth. "We're in a recession," Passera said the industry association Confindustria. "Management incompetence has created a global economic crisis." Passera statement is similar to the estimate of prediction Confindustria Italian GDP will drop 1.6% for 2012; is worse than previously estimated the expected growth of 0.2%.

Passera see the importance of the role of the company to create economic growth. "There is no other way to create growth in addition to give a greater role to the private sector," Passera said that indicates the government does not have the funds to provide stimulus. Passera also see credit problems that haunted the economy. European Banking Authority (EBA) has said banks need to inadequate capital shortage that reached € 114.7 billion. "Banking will experience pressure, especially with the scarcity of funding sources," Passera said.

In the meantime, please register strengthening euro thin in early New York session. EUR / USD is now trading 1.3000, better than yesterday's closing level of 1.2981

News and European Economic Review (Switzerland)

Towards Distressed Franc the SNB Meeting

Thursday, December 15, 2011

Depreciation of the Swiss franc continued for 3 consecutive days to reach the 9-month lows against the dollar, the Swiss National Bank ahead of the meeting that according to most market participants probably will not change its policies for a while. SNB governor Philipp Hildebrand still expected to refrain from raising the legal minimum exchange rate at 1:20 Francs per Euro in a policy meeting in Zurich on Thursday.

"The market was waiting for the results of Thursday's meeting," said Bernd Berg, currency analyst at Credit Suisse AG in Zurich. "Maybe they will imprison its intention to raise the limit of the exchange rate given the latest economic data showing weakening Switzerland."

Swiss consumer price index dropped 0.5% in November, according to the Federal Statistics Office reported on Neuch? Tel on 6 December, the biggest drop since October 2009. Previously, the State Secretariat for Economic Affairs reported if the Swiss economy grew only 0.2% during the 3rd quarter, the lowest in the last 2 years.

News and Economic Review Europe (UK)

Pound strengthened against the dollar despite worries persist

Wednesday, December 14, 2011

Pound edged up from the level of decline in two weeks against the U.S. dollar in the session Wednesday, but limited increases in bond yields increased when the Italian added concern that the EU summit last week made ​​little progress in addressing the debt crisis in the region.

Market sentiment was battered in recent days by the view that the EU summit last week did not produce a decisive plan to tackle the debt crisis in the euro area.

Earlier today, the Italian Treasury to sell bonds that meet the government's five-year target of 3 billion euros, the average yield of 6.47 percent, after paying 6.29 percent on a similar auction in November. After the auction, yields on Italian 10-year bond is above the critical threshold of 7 percent.

GBP / USD touch the 1.5531 level on daily in afternoon trading in Europe; which then undergoes consolidation at the level of 1.5490, up 0.07 percent. In addition, the sterling strengthened against the euro with EUR / USD down 0.55 percent touched the 0.8375 level.

Also on this day, Germany auctioned 4:18 billion euros of bonds in two years, reassure investors after a 10-year bond auction last month found a very weak investor demand.

News and Economic Review Europe (Germany)

No Christmas party for Commerzbank

Wednesday, December 14, 2011

Christmas is supposed to be and celebrate with his usual lively but maybe this time it will feel different for employees of Commerzbank AG, Germany. As one of the two largest credit bang Commerzbank has canceled its Christmas party plans as a result of the crisis that also hit the joints as well as finance companies.

Bank based in Frankfurt Germany announced cancellation of about 3 weeks ago. According to sources who did not want his name mentioned, "a holiday party like it was not worth doing in the midst of a crisis like this"

Few remember a very bleak year some time ago when Commerzbank should gracefully accept the hand size of government is not when the storm hamtaman nseluruh credit crisis hit the world, no less than 5.3 billion euro bailout fund that has been in the drizzle to Commerzbank. The company is trying to reduce costs, store their assets, selling their business that it weighed approximately langah company, achieving a revenue target company to raise capital without having to involve third party funds / customers

News and Economic Review Asia (Japan)

European fears drag Nikkei to closure

Tuesday, December 13, 2011

Japan's Nikkei index slumped at the close of trading session on Tuesday after downgrades outlook for large-scale European countries adds new concerns about the strength of step with European leaders to fight the debt crisis in the region.

Historic agreement last Friday in Brussels between 26 EU leaders to develop a new agreement on deeper integration in Europe kaasan give only a brief fillip to the market and only a few actors in Tokyo hoping equity acquired a large increase in the coming days.

The main event this week included a meeting Tuesday the Federal Reserve, which is expected to delay policy changes and the Tankan business sentiment survey Thursday Bank of Japan.

Moody's Investors Service intends to review the ranking of EU countries in the first quarter of 2012, as he told the summit that took place last week offered "little new step". Fitch Ratings said the failure of the summit produces a solution "comprehensive" is likely to increase short-term pressure on the ranking of countries in the euro area.

The Nikkei fell 1.2 percent to a level of 8,552.81, still above the 25-day average level of movement mendeakti 8508, after failing to penetrate the upper levels of the average 75-day motion on Monday. The broader Topix index fell 0.8 percent to a level of 740.71.

Investors also expect lower growth in China signaled to push Beijing toward its pro-growth policies that are more explicit.

Market players said investors began to worry about the impact of flooding in Thailand Honda after Toyota Motor Corp. recently lowered its annual profit outlook half.

Gold will fall by the "Head-and-shoulder '

Tuesday, December 13, 2011

Until the afternoon session in Asian trade Tuesday (13/12), the world gold prices recorded in the range of $ 1,655-an, having slipped down to $ 1652.10 and has recorded a decrease of more than 3%.

Gold declined mainly due to the strengthening of the dollar after the world market again pessimistic about European leaders are judged to be sufficiently strong and decisive in taking policy to address the debt crisis in the EU summit last weekend.

Technically speaking, the pattern of bearish trend on the graph will bring Gold (XAU =) probably dropped to $ 100 from current levels. In the short term, gold will move down at least to the area of ​​$ 1640 and $ 1.620 to $ 1.600, or even more. Pattern should be wary of head-and-shoulder gold prices are heading indicates a low level in September or below $ 1.550 per ounce.

In addition, the market is now difficult to expect gold to be recovered quickly rebounded as indicators of daily Stochastic and Moving Average: 7.14 and 30 confirmed bearish.