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Ferguson: political tensions in the euro area will escalate Naill Ferguson, a history professor at Harvard University, said in his interview to Bloomberg TV that the euro zone has become a kind of government-killing machine: those policymakers who have been in charge during the financial crisis are now being punished. This applies not only to the policymakers of the periphery known as PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain), but also to the core, particularly, Germany. In his view, this process is going to continue and this is a very troubling situation with the implications for the whole global economy. The professor recalls the experience of the Latin Monetary Union in the late 19th century that died a slow death mainly because of Italian deficits. Ferguson has also expected that it would be Italy to drive the euro zone off the cliff. The Problems have actually begun in Greece, Ireland and Portugal threatening to spread to Spain. Now, however, Italy is in the frame, so the economists say that it’s necessary to talk not about PIGS but about PIIGS in order to make room for Italy alongside Ireland. As the political situation deteriorates, there will be more of True Finn type parties in the core and the North that urge to stop bailing out South and West, while in the periphery people will keep complaining about the masochistic austerity measures which these countries are conducting. According to Ferguson, the dangerous idea of leaving the euro zone is starting to be regarded as politically credible one and the tensions in the region will escalate.

Lloyds: Greek debt has to be restructured Economists at Lloyds TSB Corporate Markets note that to get the EU support Greek authorities promised last year to do fiscal tightening, but they haven’t done it. So, the country’s officials are once again promising to reduce the budget. The question is, given the increasing opposition to the cuts from Greece’s population, if the government is able to push through the austerity measures. The analysts say that Greece doesn’t grow fast enough to generate the tax revenues. As the country needs money there certainly has to be some restructuring – it doesn’t have to be the outright default, though it depends on how you define the notion of “default”. Rating agencies, for instance, say that any sort of “reprofiling” means default, notes Lloyds. The specialists think that in the long run restructuring will help both Greece and euro zone. According to the bank, the quicker the proper mechanism is put in place, the better. The current crisis in Europe is not a matter of confidence to the EMU as some might think, but the problem of relatively small economies, think the strategists. But as these countries still can’t meet their payments unless the debt is written off, the debt restructuring will actually ease the pressure on euro and reduce contagion effects. According to Lloyds, the world’s economy is quite healthy at the moment and if to conduct reforms in the euro area, it’s time to do that now. The European policymakers need to be willing to act toughly dealing with the crisis in 3 countries in particular – Greece, Portugal and Ireland.

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