madoff

What are your suggestions on books that one should read Mr Madoff.

hi cuteat40,

i dont know, what in particular you will find as usefull books for understanding of market action. i also dont know, what market / markets you trade and wich timeframes. i trade only american stocks and never forex.

i bought some books and i read almost all books (at least I scrolled them down for searching the information, that could be usefull for me), that you can find in net (some hunderts books).

the most important books for me, that i have read an reread many times and wich inspired me, are

1. reminiscenses of a stock operator

2. all books of nicolas darvas

3. all books of joe ross

4. all books of nassim taleb

my bottom line is - one have to trade in harmony with the market and develop a clear understanding, how market action express itself in the ohlc. trading not in harmony with market would sooner or later separate one form his money.

there are very few book about trading that are worth reading and rereading. most books are indeed worthless for trading.

Hi madoff,

 

I doubt very much that there is no one out there who is using a model very similar to yours.

With the amount of people involved in trading, and near unlimited resources dedicated to finding an edge, I guarantee your that if your model has any kind of edge - it has been explored, modified, improved and implemented years ago. :) It would be kind of naive to assume otherwise.

 

I think you are making lots of sense in your previous posts about predicting. I think correct word, for what we try to do, is forecasting. Based on dictionary's meaning of "prediction" - you are correct, non of us would be able to predict the Market, prediction is simply too exact of a term based on exact calculations in many cases.

But with that said, relatively accurate forecasting can be achieved in Markets. Based on what we know for sure, that cycles are present in Markets, and other variables - future is nothing but repetition of the past...with a twist in most cases of course. I think forecasting is becoming actually easier in current Markets, as long as one understands what exactly he/she is forecasting. Markets are a lot more structured, or manipulated if you prefer, than ever before, mass psychology has less and less effect on the Markets because more and more money is concentrated in fewer hands. So for the most part, especially short term, forecasting is really nothing more than understanding what smart money is trying to accomplish.

 

Good trading,

smart money were frontrunng, spoofing and layering you bro, as well millions of others small and big traders from approx. 2005 until now (i dont know, but for sure till 2012). with billions of $ and smartest brains why firms like getco, tradebot and other flashers decided to invest lot of money in technology and fiberoptics insted in research of market prices series to find profitable patterns? maybe those brains simple know, that there are no such patterns? maybe is that simpe explanation even the right one?

we simply dont know, whats goong on there. i dont know. we read old books with comments of new charlatns and go like lambs in cage full with lions.

but what exists in the markets, and what nobody yet can steal from a small trader, are trends, the "paths of least resistance". and big trends :) in that sence is my modell not new, it separates trens (vertical volatility, coz not all trends are hh / hl sequeces, we will miss a lot of wild volatility explosions, if we still waiting on old uncle dow structures), and strucures of horizontal volatility (consolidation). i dont use pivot points when i define horizontal volatility, so it doesnt have \/\/ or /\/\ swing structure, but is defined otherwise.

prediction future market event based on past events sounds for me same like forecasing future market events based on past market events. that was my point, absence of casiality, that our oversimplicistic brain wants to see everywere. ;) as well misleading of newbie traders.

and... nobody uses it like i do. at least nobody, who is cached in google and bing. i often search for ppl, who try to see the market like i do ;)

same to you :)

Hi Mr madoff....

 

Would you please expand and educate us all on what you have observed by "The model is very simple, doesnt have any optimizable parameters and is based on volatility and fractality of markets."

 

I am sure we would all like see your insights explained further ... many thanks

hi mr. tke1,

thank you that you still trust in ppl with the name like "madoff" ;)

i dont think, that i will do it in the near furure, maybe i will write a book about this someday. if i do it, i promise you, that you will get that book for free :)

i dont want any popularity of my method now, coz i m pretty sure, that nobody in the trading world use my volatility model so how i m using it (i googled often during last 3 years).

and i dont really need ppl, who will follow me, an to whom i need to explain how it works. this is not a kind of popularity i need.

and there is no "madoff volatility model" im internet, coz i use another name on other traders communities ;) so dont search.

and it will cost me a lot of works and time, to explain that here. i m not ready for that.

this is simple, but not that easy ;)

try to forget classical TA, just obseve OHLC and try to see, what happens, when volatility contracts and when it expands. try to use more them one timeframe because of fractality :)

It really depends on your trading plan. No method is hundred per cent perfect. Back test whatever you do. There are hundreds of methods and you have to suit one that appeals to you.

 

cuteat40

Hi, if you would think a step further about idea of „backtesting“ you will with no doubt recognize, that all the knowlege, that you will get from such backtesting is simple the fact, that you have found some quantity of random outcomes in a series of price , that you have backtested, and no more than that. Than it is logical to assume, that if you after that take another price series, you will get another random outcomes and so on, what is also true. For that reason i dont see any need to backtest anything, coz i dont try to fit any market to any theory what a market should do, or in a particular pattern, but simple observe price action and take my steps. Sure i use a model of market, but this model fits to markets, and not otherwise. The model is very simple, doesnt have any optimizable parameters and is based on volatility and fractality of markets. I think also, that backtesting is only needed for people with wrong perception of makets and through that they want only make theyself (and others) to belive, that it is not that wrong. (Sorry I will not discuss the monte carlo simulation, because it will lead us to the quantitative approach, and in my eyes market are far more, than simple the numbers. We cannot calculate luck or unluck, or simple other unlimitd amount of possibilities, that we cannot derive from data, that we have, as well as litte and big events in the future, that we dont know at the moment of dicision making).

Sorry guys, my english is far from perfect, but i hope, it is clear, what i was tryed to say ;)

Sure you can. Larry Pasevento does it everyday.

 

Unclepips

yepp and pinocchio is a true story...

I have to disagree with your points for the following reasons; first, however, disagreeable I am with message being conveyed, we should allow others including you to make their points heard. This will allow all the members to affirm their thinking or just that there is a different perspective being presented.

 

Second, sure we all make forecasts or predictions about everything including trading. Even if we are not using any indicators or those exotic programs out there, we tend to see something static and make determinations of the future. Here I am defying future as in what's going to happen in the next second, minute, hour, day etc. Now, whether we were correct in predicting the outcome, that's a different matter and obviously open to debate.

 

Finally, I do agree with both of you that most of the programs have severe limitations, however, there is a grain of truth in them which we can derive some idea for us to use in our trading, so I generally do not dismiss them entirely but am interested in learning their approach to trading. If it works then I use it otherwise discard the idea and move on.

 

I do thank you for moving the discussion in this thread.

hi ESVepara,

i never thought that i would start any discussion on indo-investasi but ok :)

i was not agree with the sentence of timein about predicting future based on the past events in markets. market are systems of highest complexity and such causal relationships in that kind of systems are more often products of our imagination then of "true market's law" or "secrets of trading" and so on. i dont know who timein is, maybe he is a market genius (if they exists), but the words that he has choosen are misleading in particular for newbie traders. it could be possible, that timein make advertising for his methods and wants to be heard, but he have to understand, that markets choose any direction regardless of someone prediction or "secrets of traders...".

i hope that i explained it clear enough ;)

madoff

i disagree with you-

i did not watch the videos yet but that is exactly my method- telling the future lol.

when i see a setup for higher highs higher lows for example - i will go long at every fib retracement forecasting the future to continue upward and make a new high.

After 16 years of trading- believe me- this method is working.

jane

hi jane,

you dont need to agree with me ;)

i didnt watch those videos either and i wont, coz i dont think that i could learn anything absolutely new about markets and trading tactics.

my point is, that the creator of the vids cannot ditiguish between predictions and anticipations of future market movements. we cannot predict any future market events based on past market events, we only can anticipate it and participate on it, if the market goes according our plan. in his case we all trade on the same manner, only our setups and technics are different.

i use a completly different trading approach than you do, never use fibs and reversals. i trade trends, my trading is based only on price action and volatility (measured with price action only).

bernie

We are all here to help each other. This type of language is counter productive and will only discourage member participation.

sure we are here to help each others, othewise i wouldnt be here! my help in ths case is to point it off for other members, that the future of a market cannot be predicted through the past (and cannot be predicted at all), coz if this or that member starts to belive about future predictions based on past events in the markets, he will be soon be far more discouraged through misleading of those predictions then he would be discouraged now by reading my "counter productive language", where i just gave to nonsence its true name.

hope you can agree with me.

Get back to basic’s take a look at these two videos just released on 01/09 and 01/10/15 these strategies are simple and they work. Using the Past to Predict the Future, Video I&2.

 

Secrets of traders…

https://www.sendspace.com/file/nt896c

you cannot use past to predict future, it is a market and not a science-fiction novel. please stop writing nonsence!

a indian guy called tom joseph combined macd, fib-ret, some other stuff that was in-vogue in the 80-th in a program. than he found some examples of stocks, fut and cur where the "patterns" "worked" and published that in his manual.

it will work like others swing/reversal pattern, maybe a bit better or a bit worse. it will be wrong often enough that you will loose a lot of money. it is only a illusion, that when you filter your setups (pti, channels, ew-osc, fibs and so on) you "refining" your setups. but it is not true, cuz it was and is and will be a kind of swing trading (and i personally dont like swing trading). if you dont belive me, you can pay 300 $ a month as long, as you belive in some magic in numbers or other *****ical ideas of charlatans like prechter or joseph!

elliott wave is a silly concept and adget is a useles programm. dont waste your time and money. ;) learn how market really is!

Try this Plug in for Metastock, and share your views, if it works fine

 

http://www.4shared.com/rar/6hhnz1kr/Trading_Metastock_Plugin_-_Vol.html

 

Why to install seperate programme and waste PC disk space, enjoy with metastock, do share your views

it's not a MS plug in, it´s very old version of vsa.

I`m using TWS and MT 6.5. no probs detected yet...

currently using build 922.6, Jan 5, 2012, this is the last build.

a range would help you for sure :P

would help you not use such ****. dunno if you unerstand me...