musketeer

Hello . I just took 2 more trades. one in E/U and one in U/C both in 5 Min TF. Both trades going no where so has to close them.
 
Today's total profit is $ 432 :-bd
 
Time to close the MT4
 
Download link is: http://img545.imageshack.us/img545/2403/eur3.jpg
 
http://img545.imageshack.us/img545/2403/eur3.jpg

Hi musketter. i have highest respect for u and soundfx... i am referring to a particular person who was is taking potshots at me.. that person knows that i am referring to him... b4 also in one of his post he used the term "Going off topic and polluting the thread and now cherry picking the trades"..
 
Ill do my best to make this system reach and use by thousands of traders across the globe.. Its a GEM
 
Anyways i am over with it.... thanks for making me smile...:)

I am not sure I would get too excited over this one. Have a look at the current open trades
 
http://img263.imageshack.us/img263/4519/screenhunter01sep031236.gif

Hi Guys,
 
Musketeer - I've changed the link in the first post which now points to the most recent version of the EA and indicators. Here it is too:
 

http://www.multiupload.com/LB8OL0N1DY
 
This is the most recent version of the II_PipAccumulator indicator which includes the parameter TFProbCalc which when set to true will determine probabilities in different timeframes on the chart you're looking at. It's worth looking at these values - or perhaps just the All TF probability value to see if that can be used to get us into consistently better trades than the basic master probability. The EA currently doesn't include this multi-TF option, though we could soon copy the code from the indicator and add it in.
 
I've changed the EA slightly to remove the "two trades" option, I've also restricted trades to one per arrow (we can make this flexible in parameters later if need be).
 
I believe that the trailing stop function is now working and Jason...I've checked the CloseProb0 function which is working for me in this version - to help in debugging this I've added a comment which will be written to the log to indicate when trades have been dynamically closed.

kappaforex,
 
I totally agree. As I've said time and time again about these "amazing" EA's...
 
I can create an EA in 30 mins flat which will show amazing backtest curves, the problem is that these EA's are unpredictable and for gamblers only, not traders. Huge DD is not a nice thing to suffer and there are a lot of ego driven guys out there who think that if an EA goes into too much DD, then they'll pull the plug well before their account is drained to 0. This is much easier said than done lol. If you've tripled your account in two months and are now looking at all those gains and potentially even some of your original capital being wiped out - are you ready to pull the plug? I suspect not lol. These are the psychological demons you have to face running these sort of systems. If you really want to have fun and make tons of cash very quickly or lose it all then search on the forum for a user called boussenix who was trying to sell a "holy grail" EA, though it got shared eventually. If you run this on a "gambling money only" account then you may do ok - probably a lot better than death by a thousand cuts from trying out all these rubbish commercial EAs :)
 
I can see total newbies falling for all these tricks, though I think some of the guys here should know better and the only reason why they're holding on to the dream is because of greed and a crazy notion that the perfect system will eventually fall into their laps lol.
 
Wake up guys! You know what sort of people you're dealing with when you buy these dodgy EA's lol - if they manipulate their results in photoshop or over-optimise their backtesting (so it only works perfectly for the period of time they show), or do anything else underhand - the alarm bells should be ringing and questioning deeply some of the marketing blurb: "This guy says he wants to give back to trading community" or "He wants to become a millionaire by the age of 23, so he's selling the system as a once in a lifetime opportunity, to help build up his trading account quicker" etc. It's all total BS.
 
If a system was half as good as most of those hyper-marketed EA's purport it to be then it wouldn't be selling for $97 to as many customers as it's affiliates could dig up from their spammers mailing lists, it would be selling for $1,000,000+ to major dealers and investment banks lol.
 
So...what's the solution? Unfortunately, you'll find that if you want success in this business you have to work for it like in any other business. There are two routes:
 
1) Learn how to become a good manual trader.
 
2) Learn how to code (if you can't already) and do proper research and development of your own EA.
 
[edit ] One more thing, given the deafening silence that came from me posting this ;)
 
Trading is a game where you learn by experience. You have to be actively trading in the markets (even if you're only developing EAs) to understand how the market moves (or can move).
 
There's plenty of demo/live controversy going on, however the key point is that to understand anything about what you're fighting against, you need to have a few battles first. Demo/live is all about psychology and has most impact for those who do crazy things like trading in demo successfully for a year on a $100,000 account and then open their live account for $5,000 and you can guess the rest of the sad story which plays itself out again and again.
 
Absolutely anyone who test trades in demo and develops their own method of trading will always be streets ahead of the crowd purely because they're doing something different to the rest, yet it still makes sense to them. With strong enough rules you can even make an EA out of this.
 
For anyone who bothers to read this, here's one more tip...whatever your timeframe (unless you're hooked up to the real interbank., i.e. not your average "ECN" and are scalping 1m or are "investing" in currencies and only trading once a week/month etc.), then only trade 2 or 3 (high probability) setups per day and you'll find that your profits will soar.
 
Finding those perfect trades is the tricky bit and there's tons of stuff for you to try out already shared on II. However again I stress that you need to find something which "works" for you. By "Work" I mean that it makes sense to you, you're happy trading those signals and having those indicators on your charts, you can trade those signals in a relaxed state at the times of day when you're normally free etc.
 
Only trading the perfect trades is another matter entirely and falls into the realm of trading psychology yet again! However, don't see your poor manual trading abilities as a stumbling block...If you have a great system though can't stop yourself from entering **** trades, then consider creating an EA from it (not as easy as it appears though possible and you may stumble upon the sort of EA that you'd definitely not want to sell for $97 to every Joe Shmuck out there lol).

try it
 

http://mir.cr/3CVA0OGA

Hi Psaini,
do not get offended, I do not know who you mention in the post, but just let he thru...
Thanks for the pics, they become very professional already :)
 
Smile (learned it from Chankl :) )

You were right Soundfx, these few last days, it was pure luck.
 
I just went back in june (14th/15th) and filter doesn't work at all! (would let you in bad trades and skip the good ones!)
 
Well too bad, going back to the drawing board!
Sorry for taking your time.
LOL, I must admit that I was too excited about Chandu_filter!

Hi freddy,
 
Thanks for the detailed chart explaining those trades.
 
That's quite interesting that probability isn't being used. If someone was to code up the EA exactly as you've described then it's a perfect candidate for backtesting as there are no MTF concerns. I'm not convinced that it will survive the test of time just using MACD, though I'm happy to be proven wrong ;)
 
It's worth you looking back through a few other charts if you're not using probability then that'll be no problem. See if the system as you described it holds up on days taken at random from each month this year. If the results continue to be promising then that's good justification for us going to the effort of creating an EA with just MACD and chandu's rules and some intelligent trade handling to allow trades to run.
 
In your example I think it was just lucky that the big short trades carried on to earn potentially loads of pips until the next valid long signal. If the short move happened just a bit later then the first two short trades had a good chance of being taken out by a valid long signal going into the UK session.
 
I've always considered probability to be the unique aspect of this system which is what gives it a significant edge over most others, so it will be interesting to see if we can make something just using MACD and some good filtering rules too.

Hi Soundfx,
 
thank you for taking in consideration my observations.
 
Here is a chart of what could be done if we can implement "Chandu_filter" (I hope Chandu is alright for naming it like that! :) )
 
Entries can be made from retracement (here it is a 9EMA applied to median price)
 
I understand what you mean by "A manual trader can see price bounce off "close" to a 21MA and still take the trade, however "close" is very tricky to define for an automated system."
so maybe put few pips offset from the EMA (1or2pips should be good)
 
We can have 2 or 3 trades opened with target1 a fixed #pips (R/R=1), target2 next support/resistance, (pivots etc.) and target 3 when there is an opposite entry.
 
We can have BE after first target hit...
 
SL would be greater than 13 pips, but targets are greater (we have to experiment!)
 
As you can see, the potential is great.
 
Hope you can make something with this.
 
 
You will notice in these examples that this is only with arrows from MACD crossing, probabilities (-20/+20) is not enven used, here and it seems to work pretty well!
 
 
 
http://img198.imageshack.us/img198/3435/chandufilter.jpg

scorpion,
 

 
I assume you're using the MT4 backtester for this.
 
Have you checked to ensure that backtesting accurately reflects live trading? I suspect that there will be discrepancies because of the MTF nature of the probability calculation, so that's the first thing to do. Run the EA in live for 3-5 days and note all the trades. Then run the EA in backtest and compare - that way we can be confident (or not) in backtesting this system in general.
 

 
Yes, I suspected that we may need to tweak some of the other options as they were untested when I originally posted the EA. I wanted to include them to provide a framework for anyone who wanted to use them, then all they had to do is fix the bugs rather than code everything from scratch.
 
As for optimisation in general - I don't personally think it's a good thing as it's effectively the worse form of curve-fitting. I've created many EA's in the past and optimised them to give fantastic results on one pair/time period only to find that when I run tests going back into earlier years or use different pairs the EA's collapsed in a spectacular heap blowing accounts.
 
I think that the way forward with this EA is to learn from watching the indicators and create new rules to restrict our trades to high probability ones only.
 
In addition to Chandu's method in the manual thread, German's observations shouldn't go unnoticed either - as these could be all the EA needs.
 
The EA logic would need to be upgraded to include the determination of probabilities in all relevant timeframes which is in the latest II_PipAccumulator. Then we just wait for the MTF probabilities to line up at around 35 or -35 and place trades with stop/target 20 as a first test.
 
2 high probability trades like this per day at 80% accuracy and 1:1 risk:reward will give on average at least 100 pips per week.

I'm optimizing with different symbols, only two months in June and July,
only the parameters SL and TP to have some reference
other parameters do not seem to work properly, (TrailStarPips, TrailPips)
when it reaches a number of Pips = x is an active TS manually
 
GBPUSD 1H, USDCAD, 15M, EURUSD, 5M.
 
 
Ticket Open Time Type Size Item Price S / L T / P Close Time Price Commission Taxes Swap Profit
 
131032409 2011.08.30 20:15 sell 0.16 gbpusd 1.63097 1.64697 1.62827 2011.08.31 10:30 1.62954 0.00 0.00 -0.54 22.88
131117270 2011.08.31 11:46 sell 0.60 usdcad 0.97738 0.97868 0.97608 2011.08.31 12:12 0.97868 0.00 0.00 0.00 -79.70
131117272 2011.08.31 11:46 sell 0.60 usdcad 0.97738 0.97868 0.97608 2011.08.31 12:12 0.97868 0.00 0.00 0.00 -79.70
131127765 2011.08.31 13:00 buy 0.20 usdcad 0.97871 0.97918 0.98371 2011.08.31 13:47 0.97918 0.00 0.00 0.00 9.60
131127911 2011.08.31 13:00 buy 0.20 usdcad 0.97867 0.97884 0.98367 2011.08.31 14:10 0.97884 0.00 0.00 0.00 3.47
131138302 2011.08.31 14:10 buy 0.20 usdcad 0.97901 0.97551 0.98401 2011.08.31 16:11 0.97551 0.00 0.00 0.00 -71.76
131160247 2011.08.31 16:11 sell 0.20 usdcad 0.97550 0.97900 0.97050 2011.08.31 21:06 0.97900 0.00 0.00 0.00 -71.50
131164386 2011.08.31 16:35 sell 0.20 eurusd 1.44385 1.45285 1.43285 2011.08.31 18:03 1.44132 0.00 0.00 0.00 50.60
131180437 2011.08.31 18:04 sell 0.20 eurusd 1.44114 1.43723 1.43014 2011.08.31 21:50 1.43723 0.00 0.00 0.00 78.20
 
Open Trades:
Ticket Open Time Type Size Item Price S / L T / P Price Commission Taxes Swap Profit
131118765 2011.08.31 12:00 sell 0.10 gbpusd 1.62880 1.63880 1.61680 1.62569 0.00 0.00 -1.11 31.10
131118901 2011.08.31 12:00 sell 0.10 gbpusd 1.62881 1.63881 1.61681 1.62569 0.00 0.00 -1.11 31.20
131217540 2011.08.31 21:06 buy 0.20 usdcad 0.97903 0.97553 0.98403 0.97745 0.00 0.00 -2.20 -32.33
131223419 2011.08.31 21:50 sell 0.20 eurusd 1.43705 1.44605 1.42605 1.43772 0.00 0.00 -3.12 -13.40
0.00 0.00 -7.54 16.57

Ferenc86,
 

 
This is the sort of statement that I DON'T want to see here as I mentioned earlier lol. What did you expect - for me to just hand you a perfectly working EA on a plate?
 
As I've said before this is not a completed EA - just a starting point for the development of an EA which will be successful with the right input. Hence I'm looking for proper testing with details of parameters, results and suggestions for improvement and ideally for others to make those improvements themselves to the EA - because at the moment it's only musketeer and myself who have done any coding.
 
What form did your testing take? What parameters did you use? Where are your results
? I assume that you're just using default settings which was just an intial test I made so it doesn't surprise me at all that that results are poor.
 
Did you have the II_PipAccumulator and II_Prob_Hist indicators on the chart - have you observed patterns in those indicators which would enable the EA to make better trades?
 
Contributing to this thread isn't like the usual EA threads where you can just load the EA sit back and see if produces good or bad results with standard settings over a couple of days ;)

Hi freddy,
 
All very wise observations and I'm looking into the possibility of using some or all of these at the moment. Whatever mods. are made should work in all timeframes. The timframe sensitive stuff appears to be basing targets and stops on ATR which I'm thinking of removing anyway.
 
I've actually coded the ranging check using SMA's and it's in initial testing.
 
We definitely need a lot less entries and we need to keep out of choppy markets and also take advantage of bigger runs.
 
I like chandu's method for trading "out of main hours", though it will experience bad periods when price is trending outside of normal hours. I feel that the best way to get the system to trade as an unattended EA is for it to only trade in the main session as there's a high probability of a good move either after UK open or after US open or both. This good move we can possibly take advantage of with scaled out trades:
 
For example, say we trade 1 lot on the first arrow/probability signal. Then when in profit by say 20 pips we close 0.5 lots and move the stop to breakeven on the remaining 0.5 lots, that remaining 0.5 lots can run until we see an arrow in the opposite direction, or we have a faster MACD crossover, or fast MA crossover etc.
 
I too have noticed that everytime the alert bell rings that price is normally moving in the opposite direction to the arrow lol, so the retracement idea could be a good one. The only problem with trading retracements with an automated system is that we're going to miss some of them - which would otherwise be picked up by manual traders. A manual trader can see price bounce off "close" to a 21MA and still take the trade, however "close" is very tricky to define for an automated system.

Hi Soundfx,
 
Change of market (trending/ranging) is usually what makes it hard for EAs to adapt.
The way you check if we are in ranging markets (#crosses of 9/18SMA) is sound, but might be tricky to code.
 
The other way is what Chandu proposed in the manual thread and seems quite effective.
Although I am not a coder, i think it may be easier to implement in your EA.
 
Do you think you could make a version including Chandu's modification for M15 timeframe.
 
 
Also, after the trigger (arrow drawn when MACD 34,52,18 crosses) you will notice that price tends to retrace a bit before going in the right direction) (someone proposed to wait the retracement to a 21MA.
 
Is it possible to implement that in extern parameter(if we can choose MA # and (simple/exponential...)
 
and/or if possible also, to put an extern parameter for an offset in pips. (After trigger, wait for (+/-) Xpips before Buy/Sell)
 
With all these mods, there would be less triggered entries but less false entries.
We could then increase the risk and/or the Target.
 
Hope what I wrote is understandable and that with your talent in coding, it may be possible to implement these ideas.
 
Thanks again for your hard work =D>
freddy

Ok guys,
 
Here's a hastily put together document explaining the EA parameters:
 

http://www.multiupload.com/3FXG9VYB7L

Hi Guys,
 
A disastrous day for the EA with default settings today and the main reason for that was a quite heavily ranging market earlier on where MACD was too slow and arrows appeared at the tops and bottoms of moves.
 
In ranging markets like these, all indicators will be too slow, so considering optimising things with different indicators or different indicator settings is worthless. It's much better for the EA not to trade at all as soon as it recognises these conditions and there is a way to check this which I mentioned earlier.
 
Check two MA's say 9SMA and 18SMA and see how many times they cross within the last 24 candles. If they have crossed more than once - then we're in a ranging market - and should stop entering trades.
 
 
Mograst - I'll create a document explaining the parameters which should answer all your questions :)

I think when we obey those rules,probability already lies >20 or <-20,but not sure.I need to pay more attention for prob.Any way I will post all my observations.
 
Thanks.
 

here it is with small changes.... cosmetic only except counting slippage ...
 
1.Changed magic No., it shows symbol and ending with TF, ex.: 52119405 (5M TF)
2.Changed comment, added the requested price (one may track slippage), ex.: [email protected]
3.The slippage in modifying orders is counted, so the SL and TP must be at exact distance from opened price
4.The name is II_PIPA_EA-1_01.mq4 for easy tracking where I mess the things :)
 

http://www.mirrorcreator.com/files/HO3JRIIE/http://content.screencast.com/users/myonlinecont/folders/Jing/media/c69e0d33-3768-48ed-82ff-66b6005f52cb/2011-08-29_0835.png

Hi Guys,
 
I didn't quite get costaeli's algorithm correct for calculating the pivots, here's the correct version (I hope!):
 

http://www.multiupload.com/D3BNFTB48B

Hi Soundfx and Others:
 
During the past week and including today Monday August 29th, a period of extreme volatility on the Euro/Usd within a range of 1.4550 down to 1.4300
 
I have observed an interesting correlation between the Master Probability reading/ ALL TF Master Probability and the currency strength meter
 
If you take the time to observe the two side-by-side, you will notice that once the Master Probability AND ALSO the ALL TF Master Probability reading gets above a output of 35-38.
 
The currency strength meter is also showing readings between for the Euro at 8+ against a USD reading of 2 or less indicating strength and that a breakout may be imminent.
 
Keep your eyes on this event it seems to be a very good trading opportunity; you can also try and test it with a fractal breakout, or even with volatility stops. But is an exercise in futility once the reading from the Master Probability and ALL TF Master Probability builds up to the levels I've described above and the currency meters reads with the numbers I've listed which in essence is a five point spread between the two readings. The move from what I have observed over the time span that I have mentioned breaks out with lots of momentum.

My Humble Request to everybody who so ever is using "SoundFx Ver".
 
Pls Pls share ur screenshots of ur results as i am doing on regular basis...
 
Lets give soundfx some motivation as the system is performing good, this guy has been working all day n night to perfect this system, but i am sorry to say nobody bother to listen to my request.
 
There may be some reasons i guess,,
 
1) People tried it for a day and thot its not good enough...
 
2) May be some people tried and got some success but they dont want to share there secret strategy which they r using along with soundfx Ver.
 
Majority of the people without trying this system for some days want this system to be perfect. so as a result soundfx is bombarded with requests to add or delete certain functions, which is a good thing, but the system in present shape is very good...
 
The proof of the pudding is in the eating
 
Guys give this system a try and share ur results...
 
soundfx is going nowhere, he will definately help u out with ur queries as he is doing it already...
 
Pls dont take my this post in some other way. i just said wat i am seeing 4 the last couple of days...

here it is with small changes.... cosmetic only except counting slippage ...
 
1.Changed magic No., it shows symbol and ending with TF, ex.: 52119405 (5M TF)
2.Changed comment, added the requested price (one may track slippage), ex.: [email protected]
3.The slippage in modifying orders is counted, so the SL and TP must be at exact distance from opened price
4.The name is II_PIPA_EA-1_01.mq4 for easy tracking where I mess the things :)
 

http://www.mirrorcreator.com/files/HO3JRIIE/http://content.screencast.com/users/myonlinecont/folders/Jing/media/c69e0d33-3768-48ed-82ff-66b6005f52cb/2011-08-29_0835.png

here it is with small changes.... cosmetic only except counting slippage ...
 
1.Changed magic No., it shows symbol and ending with TF, ex.: 52119405 (5M TF)
2.Changed comment, added the requested price (one may track slippage), ex.: [email protected]
3.The slippage in modifying orders is counted, so the SL and TP must be at exact distance from opened price
4.The name is II_PIPA_EA-1_01.mq4 for easy tracking where I mess the things :)
 

http://www.mirrorcreator.com/files/HO3JRIIE/http://content.screencast.com/users/myonlinecont/folders/Jing/media/c69e0d33-3768-48ed-82ff-66b6005f52cb/2011-08-29_0835.png

Hi SoundFX
 
 
There have been 14 trades, ranging from 19-31 pips in very fast moves, and a pullback of about 17 pips (stop)
 
If you study the move that occurred today at around 2:00 AM EST, it is typical of this type of trade, and all conditions I listed in my other posted were present.
 
This is about as simple an answer I can give without going off topic here on your thread, as I do not want to bring in other items about trading ( such as S&R, double and triple tops and bottom) that would pollute this thread.
 
 
Also I only trade 1 hr before London open , reading news and setting up if I see a move I take it before the actual Londo open at 3:00 AM EST, till the London Fixing at 11:00 AM EST