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Ferenc86

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Posts posted by Ferenc86

  1. scorpion,

     

     

     

    I assume you're using the MT4 backtester for this.

     

    Have you checked to ensure that backtesting accurately reflects live trading? I suspect that there will be discrepancies because of the MTF nature of the probability calculation, so that's the first thing to do. Run the EA in live for 3-5 days and note all the trades. Then run the EA in backtest and compare - that way we can be confident (or not) in backtesting this system in general.

     

     

     

    Yes, I suspected that we may need to tweak some of the other options as they were untested when I originally posted the EA. I wanted to include them to provide a framework for anyone who wanted to use them, then all they had to do is fix the bugs rather than code everything from scratch.

     

    As for optimisation in general - I don't personally think it's a good thing as it's effectively the worse form of curve-fitting. I've created many EA's in the past and optimised them to give fantastic results on one pair/time period only to find that when I run tests going back into earlier years or use different pairs the EA's collapsed in a spectacular heap blowing accounts.

     

    I think that the way forward with this EA is to learn from watching the indicators and create new rules to restrict our trades to high probability ones only.

     

    In addition to Chandu's method in the manual thread, German's observations shouldn't go unnoticed either - as these could be all the EA needs.

     

    The EA logic would need to be upgraded to include the determination of probabilities in all relevant timeframes which is in the latest II_PipAccumulator. Then we just wait for the MTF probabilities to line up at around 35 or -35 and place trades with stop/target 20 as a first test.

     

    2 high probability trades like this per day at 80% accuracy and 1:1 risk:reward will give on average at least 100 pips per week.

     

     

    Hi, Soundfx

     

    Very nice job! Congratulation! I see the increasingly better results!

    I am not skilled at the robots so only unfortunately I am an exterior observer and a fan

    Have a nice day!

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