FBS.com Official
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FBS memberikan kondisi trading terbaik! Sudah terbukti!
The 9th China (Guangzhou) International Investment & Finance Expo tahun ini diadakan di Guangzhou 21.09.2012-23.09.2012. Selama tiga hari itu pameran tersebut telah diikuti oleh puluhan perusahaan terkemuka dan dikunjungi kira-kira 140 000 pengunjung.
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Take your chance!
Dear forum members!
Don’t miss the chance to participate in the best demo contest and win valuable prizes (555 USD, 333 USD, 111 USD).
Registration is open until 30.04.12.
Contest period: 1.05.12 – 1.06.12.
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FBS always cares about its clients!
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Insurance details: http://www.fbs.com/breakeven
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Tomorrow 999 Contest starts.
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Tomorrow 999 Contest starts.
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Who will become Miss FBS Universe?
Dear traders!
Just as summer, “Miss FBS Universe” Contest step by step comes to an end. For 3 months you have been admiring our pretty contestants who decided to prove to everyone that they are the most beautiful ladies in the world of Forex.
Undoubtedly each of the participants is very attractive. But only you are to decide who deserves the title of “Miss FBS Universe”.
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The 31st of August is the last voting day. Hurry up, your vote may be critically important.
The winner takes the title Miss FBS Universe and 500 USD!
FBS wishes all the ladies good luck!
Contest details: http://www.fbs.com/contest/miss_fbs
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Who will become Miss FBS Universe?
Dear traders!
Just as summer, “Miss FBS Universe” Contest step by step comes to an end. For 3 months you have been admiring our pretty contestants who decided to prove to everyone that they are the most beautiful ladies in the world of Forex.
Undoubtedly each of the participants is very attractive. But only you are to decide who deserves the title of “Miss FBS Universe”.
We would like to remind you that the winner of the contest is determined by a transparent Internet-voting on our Facebook official page (via function “Like” under a photo) http://www.facebook.com/media/set/?set=a.174884632565518.49148.100001319475487.
The 31st of August is the last voting day. Hurry up, your vote may be critically important.
The winner takes the title Miss FBS Universe and 500 USD!
FBS wishes all the ladies good luck!
Contest details: http://www.fbs.com/contest/miss_fbs
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Dear Traders!
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FBS wishes all the participants best of luck!
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S&P reduced US credit rating
Standard & Poor’s reduced US credit rating by one notch on August 5 stirring up concerns about the nation’s fiscal health.
The agency kept negative outlook for American rating as it’s not clear whether the Congress will end Bush-era tax cuts or tackle entitlements. According to S&P, if spending reductions are lower than agreed to, interest rates go up or the general government debt rises, the rating may be cut from AA+ to AA within 2 years.
The other leading agencies – Moody’s Investors Service and Fitch Ratings – confirmed their top estimates of US debt on August 2 when President Barack Obama signed a bill that helped United States avoid default. Moody’s and Fitch also underline the possibility of downgrades if lawmakers fail to enact debt-reduction measures and the economy weakens.
The pair USD/CHF hit the record minimum in the 0.7530 area. The pair USD/JPY dropped from the intervention maximum at 80.23 hit on August 4 to the levels in the 77.80 zone.
Commerzbank: comments on USD/CHF and EUR/CHF
Technical analysts at Commerzbank claim that below the 25-year support line in the 0.7554/0.7550 area the greenback has no support versus Swiss franc until 0.7410 and then 0.7160, the base of the 2010-2011 channel.
In the near-term the divergence in 4-hour charts and the divergence of the daily RSI indicate the possibility of an upside correction.
The specialists note that resistance for USD/CHF is situated at 0.7725. In order to strengthen to the 6-month downtrend line at 0.8285, US dollar has to overcome the accelerated downtrend at 0.7944.
The bank recommends squaring trades, attempting tiny shorts on a rebound to 0.7725 adding at 0.7825, stopping at 0.7945 and covering position at 0.7410.
UBS: the pair AUD/USD will fall to parity
Technical analysts at UBS give bearish outlook for AUD/USD. In their view, Australian dollar will go down well below the parity with its US counterpart.
The specialists note that S&P’s decision to downgrade the US will strongly increase the market’s risk aversion in the coming days.
Aussie may get under significant downside pressure due to the weaker equities and falling commodity prices as well as due to the general increase in forex volatility, claims UBS.
On the downside, support levels for the pair are found at 1.0330 and 1.0290. On the upside, resistance levels lie at 1.0440 and 1.0470.
BBH: dollar won’t suffer much from US downgrade
Currency strategists at Brown Brothers Harriman believe that US downgrade won’t strongly affect US dollar’s rate. According to BBH, American currency will be driven by the rating cut only in the shortest term.
The specialists expect the greenback to consolidate versus its main counterparts. In their view, the pair EUR/USD will stay in the recent broad range between $1.4000 and $1.4600. The analysts think that the pair GBP/USD will keep trading between $1.6200 and $1.6600.
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Scotia Capital: recommendations ahead of BoE and ECB meetings
There are 2 central banks’ meetings today – the market will be watching Bank of England’s rate decision at 3:00 pm (GMT+4) and the European Central Bank’s one at 3:45 pm (GMT+4).
Analysts at Scotia Capital believe that both central banks will keep the borrowing costs unchanged. In their view, there will be nothing worth attention about the BoE comments, while ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet may sound cautious that will put the single currency under negative pressure.
The specialists recommend opening shorts on EUR/GBP in the 87.40 area stopping at 88.50 and targeting 84.00.
Commerzbank: comments on USD/CHF and EUR/CHF
The greenback rebounded from the record minimum versus Swiss franc in the 0.7600 area and is on its way up to 0.7800.
Technical analysts at Commerzbank note that there are signs of reversal after the Swiss National Bank eased yesterday its monetary policy. The RSI on dollar shows that it’s oversold.
The specialists expect the pair USD/CHF to stabilize above the 25-year support line at 0.7554/50 that connects the minimums from 1987.
As for the pair EUR/CHF, it also is trying to stabilize after it once again tested 1.0795/1.0800, claims the bank. According to Commerzbank, resistance levels for the pair are situated at 1.1216 (38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the most recent decline) and 1.1365 (July 18 minimum). As long as the single currency is trading below these levels it risks falling to 1.0775 and 1.0550.
Yoshihiko Noda: Japan conducted one-sided intervention
Japanese Finance Minister Yoshihiko Noda confirmed that the Bank of Japan intervened today in the interbank market buying US dollars versus yen. Noda didn’t unveil the details such as the scale and the levels of the one-sided intervention.
According to the market’s estimates, the BOJ sold more than 1 trillion yen. Some traders even think that the amount may be even higher than that of the biggest one-day intervention conducted on September 15.
Japan’s central bank stepped in trying to stem the appreciation of the national currency after the Swiss National Bank moved yesterday in the same direction.
Both Japanese yen and Swiss franc are safe haven currencies that tend to strengthen during the times of high risk aversion like it has been so far. That makes Japan’s and Switzerland’s economies hurt.
The pair USD/JPY surged from 76.95 and approached the 80.00 level.
Analysts’ comments on BOJ intervention
Mizuho: it was the right timing to step in taking into account the weak manufacturing PMI data and due to the fact that after Switzerland’s action yesterday there was a risk that yen would have extended gains alone.
UBS: it’s not clear whether the intervention is designed to slow the yen's gradual advance or to defend a line in the sand. Any attempt to encourage a reversal of the yen's multi-year uptrend will fail. Japanese Finance Minister Yoshihiko Noda has already noted that the nation’s monetary authorities may use the tactics deployed in 1995 that involved an eight-month campaign of sporadic and sometimes daily interventions. So, investors should be ready to more active steps of the BOJ.
Westpac: historical experience allows assuming that the BOJ action will support USD/JPY for a few days maximum, but won’t be able to change the general downtrend.
RBS: monetary authorities won’t be able to change USD/JPY downtrend. US dollar will remain weak due to the concerns about American economic slowdown and expectations of more quantitative easing by the Federal Reserve.
Societe Generale: the BOJ aims for new range and not for trend reversal. Yen is driven primarily by falling US yields. It’s good for Japan that taking into account US debt issues American yields can't fall much further. Today’s intervention may help dollar to get firm support at 76.00. However, in order to return to the levels in the 80.00 area the outlook for Fed’s rates, not for BOJ ones, has to change.
Citigroup: BOJ may have greater resolve than in March or September. The pair USD/JPY is facing resistance in the 79.50/80.00 zone.
Credit Suisse: intervention can’t be called successful until yen gets below 80 against US dollar.
BBH: comments on euro zone’s agenda
Analysts at Brown Brothers Harriman note that today’s ECB meeting will be very important taking into account intensifying stresses in the euro area.
The specialists underline that the markets will watch if Trichet gives hawkish comments using his coded language.
It may happen that the European Central Bank will decide to pause its tightening cycle given the fact that the region’s economy is weak and the Swiss National Bank eased its monetary policy yesterday.
In addition, there will be some political news from Europe. Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi will speak before parliament and Spain’s Prime Minister Jose Luis Zapatero canceled his holiday in order to address problems in Spain.
BBH specialists, however, think that such measures won’t help to increase investors’ confidence in the ability of euro zone’s authorities to overcome the crisis. In their view, European policymakers will act only in case another serious slump of the market.
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SNB cut rates to weaken franc
The Swiss National Bank loosened its monetary policy today in order to stem excessive appreciation of the national currency.
Comments from SNB:
- Franc is currently massively overvalued
- Switzerland’s economy at threat, outlook worsened
- Deflation risk grows
The central bank:
- is aiming to keep 3-month Libor rate as close to 0 as possible – the target range narrowed from 0.00-0.75% to 0.00-0.25%;
- will increase the supply of liquidity to franc’s money market during the next few days;
- is planning to expand banks’ sight deposits at the SNB from 30 to 80 billion francs;
- no longer renew repos and SNB Bills that fall due and will repurchase outstanding SNB Bills, until the desired level of sight deposits has been reached.
- is watching the foreign exchange market;
- will act to stem franc’s appreciation if it’s necessary.
The SNB’s move helped to ease Swiss franc down from its record maximums versus the single currency and the greenback. The pair EUR/CHF rose from 1.0794 to the levels above 1.1000, the pair USD/CHF went up from 0.7607 to the levels in the 0.7760 zone.
Paul Krugman: US has to increase but not reduce spending
Nobel Prize winner Paul Krugman believes that US President Barrack Obama was wrong to compromise with Republicans on the debt ceiling agreement that includes government spending cuts.
The famous economist thinks that the cuts will decrease the nation’s GDP while American economy is already weak.
Krugman underlines that the bill doesn’t imply such measures as the extension of unemployment benefits as it was widely expected, so the country is likely to face the severe fiscal tightening. In his view, the austerity measures mean that US authorities are making the same mistakes as during the Great Depression.
If the specialist was one in charge and there weren’t any political constraints he would increase spending as that could be financed at a relatively low interest rate.“The federal government can borrow. It can borrow with inflation-adjusted bonds at an interest rate at 0.3%. So this is a really good time to borrow for infrastructure spending, which we badly need and which would create jobs at a time when we badly need jobs,” says Krugman.
According to him, the unemployment benefits are necessary to sustain spending power, though Krugman understands that now America can’t afford health care or entitlement spending as it needs more revenue in the longer term.
Scotia Capital: low demand for both euro and dollar
With much struggle the euro area and the United States are both through the major decisions aimed to improve the situation and reduce risks. Never the less, investors don’t hurry to rush in euro and dollar.
Strategists at Scotia Capital believe that EUR/USD will trade in range between $1.3950 and $1.4700 and finish the third quarter at $1.45.
The specialists note that, on the one hand, the European economic outlook remains uncertain due to the risk of slowdown combined with austerity measures that will certainly keep euro under pressure.
On the other hand, dollar will suffer from high US fiscal deficit and debt and deteriorating economic prospects. The evidence for the latter is weak GDP readings, ISM PMI falling to 50.9 and declining consumer confidence.
Analysts at Goldman Sachs claim that the pair may climb to $1.55 in a year, though, according to their forecast, the single currency will be able to strengthen more due to the general weakness of the greenback than to some euro-related factors.
As a result, the odds are that EUR/USD will trade sideways for the rest of the year, so it’ probably better to trade another crosses.
BarCap, RBS: Japan will follow SNB's example
Analysts at Barclays Capital believe that franc may be no longer regarded as the safe haven after the Swiss National Bank eased monetary policy to keep franc from further appreciation, so investors will likely turn to Japanese yen. As a result, the pressure on Japan’s monetary authorities will strengthen. According to BarCap, Japan must act quickly to stem yen’s advance if it means to do so.
Strategists at RBS note that the Bank of Japan will seriously consider the option of easing monetary policy. The economists underline that Japan and Switzerland are facing similar challenges with regard to the strength of their currencies used as refuges from the European and US debt problems. In their view, it would be easier for Japanese officials to decide on intervention than it was for SNB which lost billions in 2010 trying to stem franc.
RBS expects Japan's MOF to intervene after US non-farm payrolls data is released on Friday.
UBS, UniCredit: comments on the SNB
Analysts at UniCredit believe that today’s move of the Switzerland’s central bank will help to stabilize franc’s rate even if from the fundamental point of view the situation hasn’t changed. The specialists think that the SNB was absolutely right to step in. As the Swiss National Bank mentioned that the nation’s growth outlook has substantially deteriorated, the risk of a recession strongly increased.
Strategists at UBS expect more interventions from the Swiss National Bank as the euro zone’s issues may keep the franc attractive for investors and more easing will be needed to stem its gains. In their view, the previous SNB interventions came at wrong times and acting at current levels could be more effective.
NBER Committee about US economic prospects
US economic recovery that has been lasting for 2 years is now obviously losing its pace. Economists at Business Cycle Dating Committee of the National Bureau of Economic Research, which determined the dates of recessions, don’t seem very optimistic about the nation’s growth prospects.
Committee members believe that weakness in housing, employment, and business confidence and efforts to reduce debt by consumers and government are the main obstacles to growth.
While the committee doesn’t forecast the odds of a recession, individual members can make their own predictions. Here are their comments reported by Bloomberg.
Martin Feldstein (Harvard University): now there’s the 50% chance of the US falling into new recession.
Robert Hall (Stanford University): the slower the growth rate, the more likely it is that an adverse shock would cause a recession. Consumption declines as debt repayments are reducing spending even this long after the crisis.
Christina Romer (University of California): the risks of another recession have gone up for compared to what was 6 months ago. The economist expects anemic, but positive, growth.
James Stock (Harvard University): new shock could spark a downturn, similar to the contraction after oil prices jumped with Iraq’s invasion of Kuwait in 1990. Business confidence has been shaken by the months-long debate over raising the debt ceiling.
Jeffrey Frankel (Harvard University): spending cuts will reduce US economic growth next year.
Robert Gordon (Northwestern University): the aftereffects of the housing bubble keep affecting the economy.
Moody’s and Fitch about US credit rating
Moody’s Investors Service and Fitch Ratings confirmed US top credit ratings but warned that the nation may be downgraded if it doesn’t manage to reduce the debt and its economy continues weakening.
Moody’s claimed that the decision on the rating may be made within 2 years or “considerably sooner”.
According to Fitch, the ratio of general government debt, including state and local governments’ debt, will reach 100% of GDP in 2012. That’s the most of any AAA-ranked country. The agency points out that while the rating may be cut in the medium term, the near-term risks aren’t very high as the agreement on lifting up the debt ceiling and cutting deficit is only a first step. Fitch plans to finish the rating’s review in August.
For now the threat of US downgrade was overweighed by concerns about the nation’s economic slowdown that has been supporting demand for Treasuries. The yield on the 10-year bonds fell to 2.59% approaching the minimal levels since November and staying below the decade’s average of 4.05%.
Analysts at JPMorgan Chase believe that in case of the downgrade US borrowing costs will be increasing by $100 billion a year, while 50-basis-point increase in Treasury yields would reduce American economic growth by about 0.4 percentage points.
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Compromise in the US: market’s sentiment improved
The pair USD/JPY jumped today from the 4-month minimum at 76.88 hit on Friday to 78.04 and then eased back down to the 77.30 area. The pair USD/CHF is also trading above the all-time minimum at 0.7853.
It happened as US President Barack Obama announced that the White house and the Congress have at last agreed on the plan to prevent a default. The agreement includes raising the nation’s debt limit by $2.1 trillion and cutting the federal budget deficit by $2.5 trillion over a decade.
The analysts at Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce note that the tension level has eased as at the end of last week investors got nervous about the lack of compromise on the back of an approaching deadline. It’s necessary to note, however, that the risks of the United States losing top AAA credit rating remain high. Last week S&P said that if the spending cuts have to be lo less than $4 trillion to rule out the threat of the downgrade.
Currency strategists at Bank of America Merrill Lynch note that spending contraction will make the Federal Reserve keep the rates unchanged for a long time. In their view, there will be no hikes until US economic growth pace is below the long-term trend of 3%. Analysts at Barclays Capital think that the Fed will stay on hold during the whole next year.
According to the data from Commodity Futures Trading Commission, net bets against dollar rose to 310,222 contracts as of July 26 from 272,444 a week before.
BNP Paribas, JP Morgan: QE3 possible in the US
Analysts warn that the US economy risks falling in another recession.
American GDP gained 1.3% in the second quarter on the annual basis, while the first quarter figures were revised down to 0.4% that is the lowest level since the recovery began in June 2009.
The Q2 GDP accounted for $13.27 trillion that is lower than $13.33 trillion peak in the final quarter of 2007. It’s necessary to note that the recession data has been so far revised down by 25%: according to the latest figures, during the period from the fourth quarter of 2007 to the second quarter of 2009 US economy contracted by 5.1%, while the previously reported reading showed 4.1% drop.
The experts see the future outlook for America as rather dim. Economists at Deutsche Bank lowered the forecast for the third quarter from 3.5% to 2.5% and from 4.3% to 3 for Q4. Barclays Capital decreased estimates for the third quarter and the following five by a percentage point.
Analysts at BNP Paribas and JP Morgan believe that the slowdown may make the Federal Reserve consider the possibility of the third round of quantitative easing. Strategists at Societe Generale think that the greenback won’t be able to gain much in the current conditions.
Barclays Capital: comments on USD/JPY
Analysts at Barclays Capital note that at the beginning of today’s trading day the greenback managed to rise to 78.05 regaining the grounds lost on Friday but then was stopped by the resistance and returned down to the 77 yen area.
The specialists believe that the 78.05 level will now represent the key obstacle for USD/JPY. As long as the pair is trading lower, it risks falling to the record minimum at 76.25 hit on March 16. If US dollar closed higher, it will be able to rise to 79.35/60. According to Barclays, the first scenario seems to be more possible.
UBS: forecasts for USD/CHF and EUR/CHF
Swiss currency that eased down versus the greenback after the news that US authorities have reached compromise on the debt ceiling, has once again renewed the record maximum.
Currency strategists at UBS note that franc remains near all-time highs against all of its main counterparts as the uncertainty levels are still high.
According to Switzerland’s Economy Minister, the appreciation of the national currency isn’t temporary and one should expect it to decline soon. The official underline that this would affect the country’s economy. In his view, the unemployment is likely to increase.
UBS specialists give the following forecasts for USD/CHF and EUR/CHF: 0.86 and 1.20 respectively in a month and 0.89 and 1.25 – in 3 months.
Commerzbank: EUR/CHF keeps falling
The single currency once again renewed the record minimum versus Swiss franc falling to 1.1262.
Economists at Brown Brothers Harriman note that this means that the potential resolution to the US debt ceiling will turn the market's focus back to the euro-zone peripheral nations.
Technical analysts at Commerzbank believe that EUR/CHF is on its way down to the support line of the downtrend from April to July at 1.11.
According to the bank, the pair will find support at the psychological level of 1.10 and then only at 1.0775.
The unemployment rate isn’t likely to decline
The majority of analysts are rather pessimistic about US Non-Farm Payrolls data due on Friday, August 4, at 16:30 (GMT+4). It’s thought that the payrolls won’t rise high enough to reduce the unemployment rate.
Economists surveyed by Bloomberg News expect American employers to create 90,000 jobs in July after 18,000 in June, while the unemployment rate is seen at the same 9.2% level.
Analysts at ING Bank note that the US firms and households are very cautious due to the high uncertainty and the companies seem to be very reluctant about hiring new people. The shortage of jobs will likely affect consumer spending increasing the risks for the economic growth. Consumer spending added 0.1% in the second quarter, the smallest gain since the same period of 2009.
Analysts at Pierpont Securities note that for the unemployment rate to remain unchanged payrolls have to add 125,000 a month, while in order to reduce it by percentage point over a year they should increase by 200,000 a month.
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Ramadan Mubarak
Dear clients!
Today is the first day of Ramadan month.
FBS would like to wish all the Muslim FBS clients out there Happy Fasting Month and very happy Ramadan.
May this Ramadan bring you and your families prosperity and harmony!
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Ramadan Mubarak
Dear clients!
Today is the first day of Ramadan month.
FBS would like to wish all the Muslim FBS clients out there Happy Fasting Month and very happy Ramadan.
May this Ramadan bring you and your families prosperity and harmony!
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Moody’s put Spain's credit rating on revision
Moody’s Investors Service announced that it may lower Spain’s Aa2 credit rating. According to the agency, although Spain has relatively low public debt ratio compared to other European Union nations, “challenges to long-term budget balance remain due to Spain's subdued economic growth and fiscal slippage within parts of its regional and local government sector.”
The nation’s Prime Minister Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero claimed that the elections will be held November 20 instead of March in order to ease political tensions in the country. The ruling Socialist Party became unpopular as Zapatero began conducting austerity measures.
Analysts at Commerzbank pointed out that the concerns about the euro area are still very high that makes the single currency very vulnerable. The specialists are bearish on the single currency.
Spanish 10-year bond yields rose by 5 basis points to 6.09%, while Italian ones increased by 8 basis points to 5.92%, nearing the 6% mark seen as unsustainable in the long term. The pair EUR/JPY fell to 110.32, the lowest level since July 13.
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Credit Suisse: SNB once again posted losses
Swiss National Bank has posted the loss of 10.8 billion Swiss francs ($13.5 billion) in the first half of the year as euro’s decline devalued the central bank’s currency reserves.
The exchange-rate-related losses accounted for 11.7 billion francs, while 1.55 billion francs were lost on gold holdings. During the same period last year the SNB lost 2.78 billion francs. All in all, in 2010 its balance sheet contracted by 21 billion francs.
During the 15 months through June 2010 the central bank increased its international reserves in 4 times through currency interventions as it was trying to stop excessive appreciation of the national currency.
Analysts at Credit Suisse doubt that the SNB will intervene in the coming months unless the franc gains sharply again.
Swiss currency gained 9.2% versus the single currency and 17% against the greenback this year.
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BNP Paribas: euro zone’s inflation has unexpectedly slowed down
According to the data, released today, euro zone's inflation slowed this month from 2.7% in June to 2.5% in July on the annual basis, while economists surveyed by Reuters expected consumer prices to gain 2.7%.
As a result, the possibility of the rate hike in the euro area has decreased. The European Central Bank got more room for manoeuvre: now it has reasons to pause the tightening cycle due to the signs of the economic slowdown in the region and the elevated risks related to the debt problems both in Europe and in the United States.
The ECB’s mandate is to keep inflation slightly below 2%. The central bank lifted up the benchmark rate twice this year to 1.5%.
Today’s data were quite surprising taking into account that German’s CPI growth rate reached in July the 3-month maximum of 2.4%.
Analysts at BNP Paribas claim that the main reason of inflation’s slowdown may be the changes in Eurostat's methodology in January when the list of factors regarded as seasonal was enlarged.
Economists at IHS Global Insight, the world's largest economics organization, believe that though interest rate hike in the fourth quarter is very possible the slowing European growth and debt issues will force the ECB to keep the rates on hold. It may also turn out that the second round inflationary effects from higher energy and commodity prices are being contained. The specialists project that the ECB will keep rates at 1.5% through the rest of 2011 and then lift them gradually to 2.25% by the end of 2012.
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BarCap: comments on the situation in the US
Analysts at Barclays Capital note that situation at the FX market is going to be more complicated than the one at the stock market.
While in case of the worst outcome in the US equities just pick up the bad news, the currency markets will face 2 impacts: the big negative shock to the US in particular and the global risk shock. The former to some extent offsets the latter when it comes to the overall influence on US dollar. The bank still thinks that the liquidity of American market and the dollar’s safe haven status will play its role.
The specialists believe that US authorities will reach a short-term deal before August 2 as it’s impossible to find long-term solutions ahead of that. The long-term deal is very important though, firstly, because of the potential S&P downgrade and, secondly, as this is a very serious issue and if US doesn’t get its fiscal house in order, the global economy will suffer.
BarCap says that further out on the time horizon, fiscal tightening will weigh on growth and weaken US currency as the Fed’s monetary policy will remain looser for longer than the market is currently expecting.
According to the bank, Barack Obama and the Congress speaker John Boehner aren’t willing to compromise now putting the decision off to the last moments as each of them hopes that the other will back down fist.
The economists believe that it’s not the time to get too risky and adventurous at the forex market. Barclays Capital says that at the moment the most attractive currency is yen as it allows enjoying the classic risk-off trade.
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Lloyds: USD/JPY may test 76.00 yen
Japanese yen keep strengthening versus the greenback and the single currency.
The pair USD/JPY is under negative pressure as it seems that Japan’s monetary authorities won’t intervene before the uncertainty associated with US debt debates clears up. The deadline on the matter scheduled on August 2 is approaching.
Dollar fell to 77.45 yen, the lowest level since March 17 when it hit the postwar minimum at 76.25 yen.
Strategists at Ueda Harlow say that there seems to be no end of the debt ceiling discussion in America. In their view, the risk sentiment will keep worsening, so it’s necessary to buy Swiss franc and Japanese yen.
Analysts at Lloyds believe that yen is likely to gain more and even test 76.00 yen per dollar.
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