soundfx

Marchello,
 
Thanks for the "thanks" - judging by the lack of response I can see that folks are pretending what I've said isn't true, doesn't apply to them etc. or they've not realised the significance of what I've just posted :)
 
Guys, I've spent years doing exactly the same as you, trying hosts of manual systems and finding that none of them work for me. I've also tested hundreds of EAs, I've built various EAs as tests based on what were said at the time to be hugely accurate manual systems and none of this stuff worked.
 
The first thing to realise about trading is that you need to shake off your "9 to 5" delusions about what a job is. Trading isn't a "job" for starters and should never be treated as one - always treat your trading as a business where the main costs are your losses and your profits come from your "edge" in the markets. Don't turn up at your screen at 9am or whenever and expect to earn a living by sitting there trading for the next 8 hours and taking an hour for lunch. Trading doesn't work like that!!!
 
My profitablity increased significantly as soon as I realised that the less time I spend staring at the screens, the better my trades were. I can wander around the house doing other things and check on the screens every now and then to see what's happening. If something good has just started - then I jump in. If something good looks about to start then I'll sit in front of the screens to see how things progress, if price goes nowhere I'll do something else, otherwise I'll be in on a trade, and I'll either set a stop and target and go and do something else, or if I think that the trade may turn back again quite quickly then I'll watch it and make sure I don't let a winner turn into a loser.
 
Trading like this gives you an ability to see the market at a glance, because everytime you wander past and see the screens, your view of the market is not based on any preconceptions at all - you're just looking at the screen and saying to yourself "is there a trade setting up for me right now, or one just around the corner?".
 
For me this worked best to ensure that I only took the best trades - others may have better self-discipline. However, I know a lot of consistently profitable traders too and they'll all tell you the same thing "ONLY TAKE THE VERY BEST SIGNALS".
 
Some "systems" may not give great signals and I don't use a "system" as such - and nor does anyone else I know who does well in the markets.
 
Instead what you need to accumulate over time is a "trader's toolbox" of techniques which you find have worked for you personally. For example, if you always trade the open of the next candle after a good spike high or spike low and have normally profited - then that's one of the methods you put into your toolbox. If this method has worked for you then obviously you've mastered the right size of spike or maybe you combine this with price being outside the Bollinger bands too, or outside certain moving averages, or divergence against the RSI or whatever - it doesn't matter.
 
All this stuff comes from putting in the screen time, looking at signals from price action (rather than following rigid "system" rules) and then finding what works for you more often than not, and putting that method into your "toolbox".
 
Trading is a profession and like any other profession, it takes time to learn. Trading is deceptively simple and catches most newbies out because the markets constantly "do our heads in" - the moves make no sense, technical indicators don't work all the time, fundamental indicators don't work all the time etc.
 
Nothing works all the time in trading - it's not an exact science, despite what some TA afficionados will have you believe (I'm thinking of the Eliott Wave gang here lol). What you need to do to become a good manual trader is to first spend a lot of time following the markets (this is the only time when it's acceptable to spend 8 hours in front of a screen - when you're learning and on demo...). When you've done this for long enough and tried making all sorts of ****** trades as "tests", you'll begin to realise, that instead of making 50 trades a day and ending up with a huge loss (normally caused by chasing earlier smaller losses), it's not too much trouble to just make 2 or 3 trades a day and end up with a huge profit - even if one of those trades was a loser.

Hi Guys,
 
This EA is based on the manual system which is currently being enhanced, tested and traded in the thread:
 
http://indo-investasi.com/showthread.php/14520-Pip-Accumulator
 
I started a new thread for the EA, because I think it will be disruptive to the original thread to mix in EA discussions. So, please use this thread for anything related to the EA ;)
 
The EA is based on an earlier version of the II Pip Accumulator indicator (without multiple timeframe probabilities) and the code from the indicator has been replicated inside the EA.
 
Because the probability indicator which the EA uses operates over multiple timeframes, I don't think we can get accurate backtests, hence the EA will need to be forward tested.
 
The EA has various options, though I've not been able to test many of these (I'm sure that there will be plenty of bugs that need fixing if you start using options other than the current settings, so any keen EA developers, please feel free to amend whatever you like and repost it here). However, with the current default settings I'm getting excellent results running the EA on a 5m chart.
 
Please post your testing results and findings here, so that we can all work on creating a great "home grown" EA :)
 
Here's the most recent version of the EA and indicators (on 26th Sept 2011):
 

http://www.multiupload.com/FHMDLQVU7B
 
I also recommend that you read through the whole of the manual trading thread, so that you have the full background of where the EA development came from. Plus in the more recent posts you'll be able to download the most recent versions of the indicators II_Pip_Accumulator and II_Prob_Hist.
 
Here's a screen shot of what the indicators look like (I have these on the chart when running the EA, so that I can clearly see when and why the EA is making its decisions):
 
 
 
http://i54.tinypic.com/29sm6r.png
 
Here are the results from today running on EURUSD 5m with default settings:
 
 
 
http://i56.tinypic.com/14d2i42.jpg
http://i54.tinypic.com/ab2ddz.jpg (http://i54.tinypic.com/ab2ddz.jpg)

Hi Guys,
 
Here's a new version with extended alerts:
 

http://www.multiupload.com/31USA1303A
 
The parameters work as follows:
 
ProbLevelLong = Probability level trigger for Buy signal alerts
ProbLevelShort = Probability level trigger for Sell signal alerts
 
AlertArrow = If set to true will alert when a new arrow is painted
AlertArrowProb = If set to true will alert when probability level is reached and arrow has been painted.
AlertProb = If set to true will alert when probability level is reached
 
Try testing these and experiment to ensure that they all work properly.
 
Regarding German's idea of only drawing the arrow when both MACD crossover and Probability line up is actually a lot trickier than I thought.
 
The problem is the same one as with the prob trend indicator. Probabilities are only calculated in real-time in the indicator, however the arrows have to be drawn by looking back through historical candles (so that you can see all the previous arrows and boxes).
 
To draw all the historical arrows (based on MACD and probability) correctly, we need to be sure that we have the correct historical values of the probability too, which I don't think we have because of the MTF issues mentioned earlier.

Hi psaini1973,
 
No probs :) Thanks for the suggestions.
 
1) I agree, this is an essential trading tool. There's often a lot of action when candles are about to close. I just use a separate indicator for this called "barclock modified", here it is:
 

http://www.multiupload.com/3A1VUDFJDJ
 
2) II_PipAccumulator shouldn't slow your system down at all. The reason the original indicator took ages to load is because it went back calculating boxes for as many bars as there were in the history. 1,000 bars isn't much at all - I left it as 1,000 because sometimes I like to scroll back and see what has happened in the past few days, on the 5m chart we get 288 candles per day, so by restricting the view to 300 you'd only see the past 24 hours. You can change the parameter to whatever you want. If you want to look at more signals going back in time, just change it to 10,000.
 
The number of bars has nothing to do with accuracy, it just denotes how many bars we read back before we start drawing boxes and arrows on the chart, up to the current bar.

Hi conglo,
 
I was being a bit "cavalier" in my approach to deleting objects :)
 
This version should contain a fix for your problem - try it and see:
 

http://www.multiupload.com/TG28ABQNV5
 
This version also includes options for alerts...
 
Either set AlertArrow or AlertArrowProb to true to activate the alert.
 
AlertArrow will alert as soon as a new arrow is drawn regardless of probability.
AlertArrowProb will alert as soon as a probability is >20 or < -20 after an arrow is drawn.
 
As a general trading note, because this system is essentially momentum driven, then I'd expect signals to be best in the main UK and UK/US sessions.

Hi Guys,
 
I've amended the Histogram to include iBarShift() though it's still not working - perhaps this is a non-starter because of the MTF issues, I'm not sure, it's here for anyone who wants to dabble with it:
 

http://www.multiupload.com/NMUOMTVBL1
 
I've amended the II version of the indicator to include the correct MA calculations and the timeframe weightings. I've also changed the flags to coloured boxes which are easier to see (if you want to use them). If you don't want to see the flags you can now turn them off in the parameters. You also have the option to move the text and flags wherever you want on the screen by changing the HPos and VPos parameter settings (for Horizontal Position and Vertical Position). I've removed the account details as that's pretty much useless and just clogs up the screen:
 

http://www.multiupload.com/P9VO5BSVS7
 
Here's an example:
 
http://i53.tinypic.com/e02vdf.jpg

Hi Guys,
 
I've tidied up the code in Trend_Prob indicator and have changed it into a more readable histogram:
 

http://www.multiupload.com/KQZVPVWZJ6
 
However...the problem is that although the current value of the indicator ties in exactly with the current master probability, going back in history shows some suspect values.
 
Why do I think these are suspect? Well, for one they don't make sense based on what I've seen from the master probability in live and also we can prove that they're not correct.
 
The way to do this is to backtest the main Pips_Accumulator indicator in visual mode as I mentioned earlier and to compare the master probability at say 15:50 this afternoon (where it showed as a +ve number in backtest, but remained -ve in the histogram).
 
There's something subtle which is wrong here as the code comes straight from Trend_Prob and there's not an obvious reason why it should give different values to those seen from the main indicator in backtest as they appear to be using the same routines. This is one for you expert coders to check out this weekend ;)
 
Here's a screenshot of II_Prob_Hist for interest:
 
http://i55.tinypic.com/2nlyd1w.jpg

Hi Guys,
 
Here's something else to ponder over.
 
I've been trying to work out exactly how the weightings are applied in the probability calculation because I'm pretty sure that my first attempt isn't correct (regardless of some of the indicator flags being different).
 
I've looked at 3 different scenarios from the 1M chart where master probability was 48, 13 and 60 and have put these into a spreadsheet to try and work out how the master prob. is calculated.
 
This again doesn't make sense to me as I can't seem to see the right sort of differences to relate to 48, 13 and 68. For example there should be some intermediate calculated values which in the MP=60 example are just over 5 times more than those in the MP=13 example.
 
Of course it's possible that the probability calc. isn't just straightforward weighting or possibly that the flags shown on the screen aren't always what's fed into the calculation (because of program bugs?).
 
Anyway, for anyone who likes a puzzle, here are my calculations. There will be other means of caculating these weightings so you'll need to experiment with the numbers:
 

http://www.multiupload.com/QDJ1J6QDSZ
 
Another thing worth doing is putting the original indicator on a 1M chart - turn auto scroll off and scroll back to a clear bit of screen then watch the Master Probability changing and take screenshots so that you can compare the effect of flags changing from 1 to -1 etc. on the Master Probability which should give some clues.
 
I've also added a parameter to the indicator to specify whether in runs in "tick update" mode or not. This is currently set to "true", so that the indicator values will update in real time as in the original:
 

http://www.multiupload.com/I419J34F7E

Hi;
I am also trying to fine tune settings and still checking out the difference between v1 and v2. To me, v1 is more close to the original manual system than v2. I am not quite sure yet what is the difference and why is the reason that v2 got changed. Also, noticed that some of functions that v1 doesn't work. i.e trailing, etc.
Using Mangiare' MACD box settings to 20/100/18 on 1 hr TF, back test seem to hold pretty well. More people test to find optimal settings will be helpful to those who can't stay up and trade manually.
 
I've change the code slightly and if anyone interested in trying on forward test and post here, you are welcome to it. I made a comparison between v2 and v1 and used some of the code from v2 to v1. However, I am not coder and don't know much about coding. (just enough to be dangerious. :-O ) SO PLEASE PLEASE DO NOT USE IT ON LIVE UNTIL YOU ARE ABSOLUTELY SURE. EVEN THEN, PLEASE SEEK PROFESSIONAL ADV BEFORE YOU USE IT ON LIVE. SERIOUSLY!
 
Test time frame: 1 hr
 
back test graph image:
http://i43.tinypic.com/23u7yb8.gif
 
back test statement:
http://www.4shared.com/document/vtGExAHy/v10_1hr_test.html?
http://www.4shared.com/photo/elFxfMpu/v10_1hr_test.html?
 
EA
http://www.4shared.com/file/DrFXVdMU/_SRL__PA_v102.html?
 
Set file:
http://www.4shared.com/file/N89dfRkK/pa_v12_1hr.html?

here is a posibility set for this specific great EA ;)
 
Currency: GBP/USD
TImeFrame: M5
EA: IIPipa 2.01a
 
load this set-file. http://www.multiupload.com/ULH9334QFA
 
..further im usin separate trailing EA which much more fine tuning.
 
dont hold ur breath buddys :D
 
 
http://s14.directupload.net/images/111101/vktbrplt.gif
 
here is a trade .. check the different between EA and manual System
 
http://s14.directupload.net/images/111101/fbh259ny.gif
http://s7.directupload.net/images/111101/5hjjm96b.gif
 
 
 
i hope to make my small contribution for u..
 
Good Luck

yeah, I agreed with SoundFX. What we have witnessed is part of the amateur's mentality. When one EA failed, they said another EA better and they will drop this EA and move on to another, when this EA started to perform again, they returned and ask for settings, time frame, time to watch for trade etc etc...they simply too lazy to spend time testing and analyzing the results. They simply waiting for someone to place the "food" on their plate.
 
Many amateur traders are still searching for the Holy Grail where they expect an EA to win 100% of the trades and not losing a single trade, some could not even tolerate break-even trades. Some can tolerate losing trade but the daily overall result must still be a win. If you have sound money management and still afraid to see one losing trade, you better off putting the money with a bank or buying your own Govt bonds.
 
I always believe that good trading result is first based on return of hard work before you can count the return on capital. I've done my due diligent and now trading live with this EA, of course, with some modifications. This EA has locked 300 pips of profit on EURUSD.
 
I'm always grateful to SoundFX who has converted the manual system into this EA. You helped me to save plenty of hours to understand the codes in the original indicators file. I'm new to coding indicator files but I will learn.
 
Thanks SoundFX.

Guys,
 
I'm too busy with other stuff these days to spend much time on II, however I keep reading posts from folks saying things like "pip acumulator EA is rubbish...XXXX EA is much better" etc.
 
Jeez - will you guys ever learn lol.
 
I've pointed out several times that PIPA EA was meant to be a joint effort from II members to create a publicly available EA for the benefit of all which is based on a sound and profitable manual trading system.
 
There's been little sign of any real interest in developing an EA which will make profits for all, though there are far too many people who are locked into the "testing commercial systems" frame of mind rather than the " we could create something phenomenal" state of mind.
 
As I said at the start of the thread, I gave everyone a golden opportunity to help in developing an EA which would be something special. There have been lots of helpful suggestions along the way from non-programmers which is always appreciated, however it only takes a couple of minutes to write down your thoughts, whereas it can take several hours/days or even weeks to create program code which works in the way you want (and there don't seem to be any coders here who are interested :( ).
 
I think that my original experiment in truly joint collaboration has failed. I'm not really disappointed because I expected this to happen.
 
Feel free to kill off this thread totally and carry on talking about MDP or some other commercial EA lol.

Guys,
 
I'm too busy with other stuff these days to spend much time on II, however I keep reading posts from folks saying things like "pip acumulator EA is rubbish...XXXX EA is much better" etc.
 
Jeez - will you guys ever learn lol.
 
I've pointed out several times that PIPA EA was meant to be a joint effort from II members to create a publicly available EA for the benefit of all which is based on a sound and profitable manual trading system.
 
There's been little sign of any real interest in developing an EA which will make profits for all, though there are far too many people who are locked into the "testing commercial systems" frame of mind rather than the " we could create something phenomenal" state of mind.
 
As I said at the start of the thread, I gave everyone a golden opportunity to help in developing an EA which would be something special. There have been lots of helpful suggestions along the way from non-programmers which is always appreciated, however it only takes a couple of minutes to write down your thoughts, whereas it can take several hours/days or even weeks to create program code which works in the way you want (and there don't seem to be any coders here who are interested :( ).
 
I think that my original experiment in truly joint collaboration has failed. I'm not really disappointed because I expected this to happen.
 
Feel free to kill off this thread totally and carry on talking about MDP or some other commercial EA lol.

Another mirror:
 

http://www.multiupload.com/PDMZ8HOC4X

we already deciphered he was using margin call as a sl and hence leveraging his account to the max but you can not reverse engineer the strategy from the statement ..... it is impossible .... i and many of my friends tried ...... at one point i even sent the statement to Marc McRae's team (th guys who conduct the contest every month) they too said the same thing ..... its impossible to reverse engineer the strategy, for all you know he could be tossing a coin .....
 
the statement is authentic i got it verified from someone at FXCM that I know .... however he couldnt give me details about who the account holder was because ......
 
1) he doesnt have access to that info i
2) even if he did have access FXCM have a strict confidentiality policy and he could loose his job
 
Its hard to understand the strategy even if you marked it on the charts (which i did) because sometimes its a breakout and sometimes its not.
 
in 2007 FXCM had low spreads on their mini platform but have since increased spreads so I don't know if the strategy would still work as it was a scalping strategy mostly on the 5 min or 1 min time frame.
 
I had thought about posting the statement in public as per soundfx's suggestion but i was afraid someone might misuse it .... and someone did.
 
A while ago soundfx told me about a thread where someone requested a info on a signal service and used the same statement on his webpage to advertise his signal service. We both thought it odd that someone would use a statement from 2007 for a signal service in 2011. Well i asked the seller a few questions about the statement and from his reply could easily tell it was not his statment and he was just using it to falsely advertise his signal service.
 
sometimes system sellers will post a request for their own system on the site so as to stir up peoples interest to buy their system and they hope someone will actually get interested and buy the system ... since they have not been able to sell a single copy. Its a sort of crafty way to advertise.
 
i know two people who after viewing the statement opened up 500 usd microlot accounts in an attempt to replicate this extraordinary performance ..... both did not succeed.
 
Unless we can identify and contact the owner of the statement (or know someone high up in FXCM who does) I don't think we'll ever know what the strategy was.

Hi Hakim314,
 
For the first, Google "multi purpose trade manager" and for the second "luktom visual order editor" :)

magrech,
 
In the thread you'll find that psaini has already mentioned that he always has a stop level set in his mind rather than physically added to the trade - this is typically between 30 and 40 pips. This is only recommended for experienced and disciplined traders who will take out their trades which are going the wrong way immediately price gets into the "stop zone" they have in mind. Anyone without that discipline will be tempted to let the price "breathe" a bit more and before they know it they're staring at a substantial loss rather than a manageable one - I know I've been there lol.
 
Guys,
 
I've lumped together most of psaini's trades and screenshots and rules for trading his system and have placed them in a word doc. for ease of reference, it will also save psaini having to answer the same questions over and over:
 

http://www.multiupload.com/XP5FHJGWCG

Guys,
 
I'm not going to be a "Marchello" (who I incidentally have good respect for as a trader and all round nice guy) and continually use this thread to expound my philosophical views on trading and everything else lol...however, I think we need to shift out of the current mentality which permeates II.
 
This mentality in general comes from desparate wannabe traders who plead for the latest version of the hyper marketed EA which shows unlimited winners going back to the year 1999 lol. You see the same desperate posts all the time "Please share this EA, "I really need this...looking forward to you sharing it" etc. These wannabe traders are typically employed in 9-5 jobs (which in general they hate) and are looking for the solution to all their problems...an EA which makes tons of cash whilst they're at work and when it's making enough cash they'll be able to quit their jobs and just live off the proceeds :)
 
The saying "there is no free lunch" applies to trading as much it does to anything else. Quit wasting your cash on latest EA fad thinking that "this is going to be the one, I can sense it..." lol. Just look at how degenerate the whole marketing of trading systems has become.
 
We have videos of guys who look as they're sincere traders talking about how EA's are rubbish and that their systems are so much better than the rest, and what do you find when you sign up to their "service"...they're suddenly offering you the classic "upsale" of an EA!!!
 
Even worse are the ones who say that EA's are rubbish etc. and that you need a real trader making real trades to make any money and for this privilege they'll charge you a modest monthly (or even weekly in some cases) fee for as long as you live! Now this may not be too bad, however from what I've seen of everything marketed for $37 per month, $60 per month etc. or similar tiny amounts, you're not getting a skilled trader at all :)
 
You're being tricked, because these guys are making money out of you every day you keep your subscription and all they do is run a mediocre EA on a server and copy the trades to you (so you've no idea where the trades come from and assume that they're coming from a skilled trader...because that's what you paid for).
 
I've spent many years in this game and I've seen rich people (and self-defined experts at handling these sort of EAs) lose everything by thinking that they can become the next Warren Buffet by running the classic grid/martingale EA's. These sort of EAs attract all because of their apparent inability to take a loss. Don't be fooled by EA's which have tiny targets and massive stops, the day will come where your whole account will disappear in a puff of smoke overnight, all the months/years of gradually building up a stack of cash will be wasted. So...you think that you have the ability to get out of bad trades from these sort of EA's before they blow your account...just try it ;)
 
This EA is something different from hyped up marketed c*r*a*p, see it as a foundation stone from which we can use our combined thoughts to create something which can truly enrich everyone's lives. We all need to get involved in this project. Very little of substance is really shared these days because the originators are fearful of others copying the system selling it as their own etc., however I've taken a gamble and have posted this EA and indicators connected with this system freely, so that we can all benefit and if a few "black sheep" sell the system as their own who cares?
 
It's up to all of you guys now to "own" this system, now I've started the ball rolling. Eveything connected with this system should be open and posted here for all to see. We have some great minds and traders on this forum...now's your chance to shine :)
 
Here's a final note for the people who are thinking that they can lay back and wait for everyone else to create a perfect EA which will make them loads of cash...
 
Think of anything you've achieved and attained a sense of satisfaction from - did it involve some effort and possibly commitment on your part? I'm 100% sure it did, so why do you expect the mysteries of trading to be handed to you on a plate? ;)

Hi Guys,
 
This EA is based on the manual system which is currently being enhanced, tested and traded in the thread:
 
http://indo-investasi.com/showthread.php/14520-Pip-Accumulator
 
I started a new thread for the EA, because I think it will be disruptive to the original thread to mix in EA discussions. So, please use this thread for anything related to the EA ;)
 
The EA is based on an earlier version of the II Pip Accumulator indicator (without multiple timeframe probabilities) and the code from the indicator has been replicated inside the EA.
 
Because the probability indicator which the EA uses operates over multiple timeframes, I don't think we can get accurate backtests, hence the EA will need to be forward tested.
 
The EA has various options, though I've not been able to test many of these (I'm sure that there will be plenty of bugs that need fixing if you start using options other than the current settings, so any keen EA developers, please feel free to amend whatever you like and repost it here). However, with the current default settings I'm getting excellent results running the EA on a 5m chart.
 
Please post your testing results and findings here, so that we can all work on creating a great "home grown" EA :)
 
Here's the most recent version of the EA and indicators (on 26th Sept 2011):
 

http://www.multiupload.com/FHMDLQVU7B
 
I also recommend that you read through the whole of the manual trading thread, so that you have the full background of where the EA development came from. Plus in the more recent posts you'll be able to download the most recent versions of the indicators II_Pip_Accumulator and II_Prob_Hist.
 
Here's a screen shot of what the indicators look like (I have these on the chart when running the EA, so that I can clearly see when and why the EA is making its decisions):
 
 
 
http://i54.tinypic.com/29sm6r.png
 
Here are the results from today running on EURUSD 5m with default settings:
 
 
 
http://i56.tinypic.com/14d2i42.jpg
http://i54.tinypic.com/ab2ddz.jpg (http://i54.tinypic.com/ab2ddz.jpg)

Great work guys! It's excellent to see you're keeping the thread alive :)
 
The key to this system (like any others) is only taking the very best signals. Everything should line up before we allow the EA to jump into a trade. This is so important yet many fail to grasp the importance. We don't want stacks of trades per day even from the EA. One or two good trades per day with high probability of success (say 70-80%) and we have an EA which is consistently profitable, stable and over time will generate significant wealth ;)
 
Recent posts in the manual thread by psaini suggest that he's mainly using normal pivots as S/R levels and just taking signals provided there's no news nearby.
 
A possible enhancement is to add FF_Cal (the most recent version) and block trades being placed 30 mins before or after "Red" news items. The 30 mins can be parameter based on each side of the news, as on NFP day for example we may want to extend these to 60mins or more. Though as a general rule we know that NFP will fall on the first Friday of the month unless it coincides with a national holiday or some other major event (these situtations are quite rare though), so even NFP could be coded in using DayOfWeek() in a new month and will work most of the time.
 
Also pivots can be added, with rules. For example. If we have an up arrow and price is very close to R1 or R2 and probability is > 20 then we should wait for a a closed 5m candle above R1 before entering a Buy trade. R3 is best avoided for Buy trades as it means that price is stretched a long way in one direction and may bounce back short hard stopping us out. However if price is heading down from R3 to R2 and we have a down arrow and probability is < -20 then that would be a good trade and target could be R2 (or one of our fixed targets).
 
There's loads of things to experiment with for you guys who have the time spare. I'm sure that given the sucess various folks have had manually trading this system with little discretional input, that the system will do very well as an EA if coded with the correct rules.

Ok guys...
 
Here's a 100% accurate Probability histogram hot off the press.
 
Note: This is a real time indicator which builds up history as it runs, so when you first install the indicator the indicator panel will be blank. Also be aware that changing timeframes will re-initialise the indicator and wipe out the data, the same applies when you restart MT4 or change parameter settings. It's a pain, I know, but this is the only way to ensure that we record correct data from the multiple timeframes.
 
Here's the link for the indi:
 

http://www.multiupload.com/FVTZCMO5PU
 
If you leave the indicator running, the history will accumulate up to the number of bars specified in the parameter "LookBack" (defaulted to 1,000) and at that point should start overwriting itself (though I've not been able to test that yet).
 
You may also notice a parameter "MaxMin" - ignore that as it does nothing at the moment.
 
The indicator shows on the histogram maximum positive probabilities in light green and the probably at the closed candle in dark green. Negative probabilities are shown similarly in pink and red.
 
I've tested on the 1m chart (which has been very slow going in the Asian session) and some interesting patterns are forming. Try it out and see if you can spot some patterns which repeat regularly and lead to high probability setups :)
 
Here's a screenshot to show what it looks like:
 
http://i52.tinypic.com/14sowm.jpg

Hi Guys,
 
For those of you using Renko, constant range bars or non-standard timeframes (e.g. 10m) on offline charts, I've made a change to the indicator which will allow the probabilities to be calculated correctly still.
 
In the case of Renko - there essentially is no timeframe, however the renko bar size will determine approximately what timeframe your renko bars relate to.
 
For example Renko bars each with 6 pips would approximate to 5m timeframe, 15 pips for 15m timeframe, 30 pips for 1H etc.
 
If you're attaching the indicator to a Renko chart then set the parameter "UseRenko" to true.
 
The parameter "DefaultTF" is the timeframe in minutes which your renko bar size is approximated to:
 
1m = 1
5m = 5
15m = 15
30m = 30
1H = 60
4H = 240
D1 = 1440
W1 = 10080
MN1 = 43200
 
Here's the indi:
 

http://www.multiupload.com/354GRL77WI

Hi conglo,
 
I was being a bit "cavalier" in my approach to deleting objects :)
 
This version should contain a fix for your problem - try it and see:
 

http://www.multiupload.com/TG28ABQNV5
 
This version also includes options for alerts...
 
Either set AlertArrow or AlertArrowProb to true to activate the alert.
 
AlertArrow will alert as soon as a new arrow is drawn regardless of probability.
AlertArrowProb will alert as soon as a probability is >20 or < -20 after an arrow is drawn.
 
As a general trading note, because this system is essentially momentum driven, then I'd expect signals to be best in the main UK and UK/US sessions.

Hi Guys,
 
I've amended the Histogram to include iBarShift() though it's still not working - perhaps this is a non-starter because of the MTF issues, I'm not sure, it's here for anyone who wants to dabble with it:
 

http://www.multiupload.com/NMUOMTVBL1
 
I've amended the II version of the indicator to include the correct MA calculations and the timeframe weightings. I've also changed the flags to coloured boxes which are easier to see (if you want to use them). If you don't want to see the flags you can now turn them off in the parameters. You also have the option to move the text and flags wherever you want on the screen by changing the HPos and VPos parameter settings (for Horizontal Position and Vertical Position). I've removed the account details as that's pretty much useless and just clogs up the screen:
 

http://www.multiupload.com/P9VO5BSVS7
 
Here's an example:
 
http://i53.tinypic.com/e02vdf.jpg

Hi Guys,
 
Here's something else to ponder over.
 
I've been trying to work out exactly how the weightings are applied in the probability calculation because I'm pretty sure that my first attempt isn't correct (regardless of some of the indicator flags being different).
 
I've looked at 3 different scenarios from the 1M chart where master probability was 48, 13 and 60 and have put these into a spreadsheet to try and work out how the master prob. is calculated.
 
This again doesn't make sense to me as I can't seem to see the right sort of differences to relate to 48, 13 and 68. For example there should be some intermediate calculated values which in the MP=60 example are just over 5 times more than those in the MP=13 example.
 
Of course it's possible that the probability calc. isn't just straightforward weighting or possibly that the flags shown on the screen aren't always what's fed into the calculation (because of program bugs?).
 
Anyway, for anyone who likes a puzzle, here are my calculations. There will be other means of caculating these weightings so you'll need to experiment with the numbers:
 

http://www.multiupload.com/QDJ1J6QDSZ
 
Another thing worth doing is putting the original indicator on a 1M chart - turn auto scroll off and scroll back to a clear bit of screen then watch the Master Probability changing and take screenshots so that you can compare the effect of flags changing from 1 to -1 etc. on the Master Probability which should give some clues.
 
I've also added a parameter to the indicator to specify whether in runs in "tick update" mode or not. This is currently set to "true", so that the indicator values will update in real time as in the original:
 

http://www.multiupload.com/I419J34F7E