Rayback

Let's review what happened on Tuesday.

At 2:00 a.m. we had German GDP which came out as expected. No price action here.

At 4:00 a.m. we had German IFO. We had a very large deviation + negative commentary for the Euro. Unfortunately, in cases like this we don't see retracements and the price just go and go, and unless you were able to enter with the SNW (and I was able in one of my accounts), you could just see the price going down and that's pretty much all. If you made any money without SNW, congratulations.

At 10:00 a.m. we had a conflict between New Home Sales and Consumer Confidence although none of them hit my trigger. No trade here. However, the Consumer Confidence deviated quite well so we saw a pretty nice move although I would be afraid to trade it. Better safe than sorry.

Let's talk about Wednesday.

1. Wednesday, August 27th, 2008 (8:30 a.m. New York Time) USA

At 8:30 a.m. we will have U.S. Durable Goods. Last month we had a pretty good price action on USD/JPY but nothing impressive on EUR/USD or GDP/USD so I still don't trust this report enough to put any real money on it. Even with that great deviation we had last month, usually half of the time it works great and the other half of the time not so great. If the price is just about to go one or the other way and this report deviates same way, market can use it as an excuse to jump into a trade. This, however, would require you to do some analysis right before the report because as of right now I am not able to tell you which way the price wants to go. The London session may and probably will move currencies one or the other way so most likely the price will be at the other level right before the report. If you are new, skip it. Remember, you don't have to follow what we write here so if you want to trade it, go ahead. I will not be trading it.

That would be all for Wednesday.

Re: DAILY FOREX ANALYSIS 26 AGUSTUS 2008

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EURUSD Analysis.

EURUSD is in range trading between 1.4629 and 1.4977. The fall from 1.4908 could possibly be resumption of down trend. Deeper decline is expected to 1.4500 in a couple of days, and a break below 1.4629 will confirm such case. Initial resistance is at 1.4908, only rise above this level will signal lengthier correction to down trend.

AUDUSD Analysis.

AUDUSD breaks below 0.8591 previous low support, suggesting deeper decline to test 0.8512 (Jan 22 low) is underway. A break below 0.8512 level will signal further fall towards 0.8400. Key resistance is at 0.8812, only rise above this level will signal reversal to down trend.

GBPUSD Analysis.

GBPUSD is in down trend. Further fall is expect to 1.8200 in a couple of days. Initial resistance is at 1.8590 followed by 1.8794, a break above 1.8794 level will indicate that the down trend from 2.0158 has completed.

USDCAD Analysis.

No changed in our view, USDCAD is in down trend. Rebound from 1.0418 is treated as consolidation to down trend. Deeper decline is still in favor after consolidation. Initial resistance is located at 1.0543 followed by 1.0668, only rise above 1.0668 will signal reversal to down trend.

USDCHF Analysis.

USDCHF traded in range between 1.0824 and 1.1039. Further rise towards 1.1200 is still in favor in next few days. Key support is at 1.0824, below this level will indicate that the up trend from 1.0010 (July 15 low) has completed, and then deeper decline is expected to 1.0650 level.

USDJPY Analysis.

USDJPY is forming a sideways consolidation in a range between 108.13 and 110.66. Further rise is still possible to 112.00 in a couple of days. Key support is at 108.13, a break below this level will indicate that the up trend from 103.76 (July 16 low) has completed and down trend has resumed.

EURUSD Analysis – Aug 24, 2008

EURUSD is forming a sideways consolidation in a range between 1.4629 and 1.4977. As long as price stays below 1.4977 level, we'd expect further decline to test the support of the up trend line from 1.1825 (Feb 27, 2006 low) to 1.3360 (Aug 16, 2007 low), now at 1.4425 level. However, a break of 1.4977 will indicate that the fall from 1.6038 has completed and lengthier correction would bring price back to 1.5160 - 1.5340 area.

For long term analysis, EURUSD broke below 1.5284 (May 8 low) support and formed a double top pattern on weekly chart. Deeper decline towards 1.4000 level to reach next cycle bottom on weekly chart is now in favor.

GBPUSD Analysis - Aug 24, 2008

GBPUSD remains in down trend and the fall from 2.0158 extends further to as low as 1.8505 level. Deeper decline towards 1.8000 is possible in next few days. Initial resistance is now located at 1.8794 followed by 1.8900, only break above 1.8794 level will signal lengthier consolidation to down trend.

For long term analysis, GBPUSD formed a cycle top at 2.0158 on weekly chart. Further fall towards 1.8000 to reach next cycle bottom is in favor.

USDJPY Analysis - Aug 24, 2008

USDJPY is forming a sideways consolidation in a range between 108.13 and 110.66. Rebound from 108.13 could possibly be resumption of up trend. Further rise to 112.00 level is now in favor. Initial support is at 108.13, a break of this level will indicate that a cycle top on daily chart has been formed at 110.66 level, and then pullback could be seen to retest 103.76 previous low support.

For long term analysis, USDJPY formed a long term cycle bottom at 95.77 (Mar 17 low) on monthly chart and is now in long term up trend. Further rise towards 120.00 is in favor.

USDCHF Analysis - Aug 24, 2008

USDCHF remains in up trend, and the rebound from 1.0842 could possibly be resumption of up trend. Further rise towards 1.1200 level is possible in next few days. Initial support is now at 1.0842 followed by 1.0740, only fall below 1.0842 level will signal lengthier consolidation to up trend.

For long term analysis, USDCHF broke above 1.0623 (May 8 high) long term resistance, suggesting that the long term down trend from 1.3288 (2005 high) has completed. The rise from 0.9634 (Mar 17 low) is now treated as resumption of long term up trend. Further rise towards 1.1600 is now in favor.

AUDUSD Analysis - Aug 24, 2008

AUDUSD traded in a range between 0.8591 and 0.8812. Deeper decline to test 0.8512 (Jan 22 low) support is still possible after breaking below 0.8591 level. If 0.8512 support gives way, next target would be at 0.8200. Initial resistance is now at 0.8812 and followed by 0.8890, only rise above 0.8812 will signal lengthier consolidation to down trend.

For long term analysis, AUDUSD broke below 0.9327 key support and formed a cycle top at 0.9849 on weekly chart. Deeper decline towards 0.8400 is expected.

USDCAD Analysis - Aug 24, 2008

USDCAD broke below 1.0543 key support, suggest that a cycle top has been formed at 1.0727 level on daily chart. Pullback to retest 0.9974 level is expected. Initial resistance is at 1.0727, only rise above this level could signal further rally towards 1.1000 level.

For long term analysis, USDCAD might be forming a cycle top at 1.0727 on weekly chart. Long term key support is at 0.9818, a break below this level will signal further decline towards 0.9056 (Nov 2007 low).

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AUDUSD Analysis.

AUDUSD formed a short term cycle top on 4-hour chart, and the fall from 0.8812 could possibly be resumption of down trend. Further decline to test 0.8512 (Jan 22 low) support is expect later today. Initial resistance is now at 0.8812, only rise above this level will signal lengthier consolidation.

GBPUSD Analysis.

GBPUSD breaks below 1.8512 previous low support and formed a short term cycle top at 1.8794 on 4-hour chart. Further fall is expect to 1.8200 in a couple of days. Initial resistance is 1.8794, a break of this level could signal reversal to down trend.

USDCAD Analysis.

USDCAD is in down trend. Rebound from 1.0418 is treated as consolidation to down trend. Deeper decline is still in favor after consolidation. Initial resistance is located at 1.0543 followed by 1.0668, only rise above 1.0668 will signal reversal to down trend.

USDCHF Analysis.

Being supported by 1.0824, USDCHF rebounded from 1.0842 and formed a short term cycle bottom on 4-hour chart. Further rise towards 1.1200 could be seen in a couple of days. Key support is at 1.0824, below this level will indicate that the up trend from 1.0010 (July 15 low) has completed, and then deeper decline is expected to 1.0650 level.

USDJPY Analysis.

USDJPY broke below 108.36 and rebounded sharply from 108.13. A short term cycle bottom has been formed on 4-hour chart. Further rally is still possible to 112.00 in a couple of days. Key support is at 108.13, a break below this level will indicate that the up trend from 103.76 (July 16 low) has completed and down trend has resumed.

EURUSD Analysis.

EURUSD pulled back from 1.4908 and might be forming a short term cycle top on 4-hour chart. Deeper decline is expected to 1.4500 in a couple of days, and a break below 1.4629 will confirm the resumption of down trend. Initial resistance is at 1.4908, only rise above this level will signal lengthier correction to down trend.

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