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Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY - UOB

EUR/USD: Bearish: Diminished bearish momentum but downside risk is still clearly intact.

The rebound from last Friday’s low of 1.0909 has been more resilient than expected as EUR touched a high of 1.1155 yesterday. However, most indicators are still in bearish territory and the greater risk still lies of the downside. The 1.0909 low is acting as a major support but a break of this level could lead to a rapid drop the mid-March low of 1.0820. Only a move above 1.1210 would indicate that a short-term low is in place.

GBP/USD: Bearish: A move to 1.3000 would not be surprising.

We view the current movement as a short-term consolidation phase that is expected to lead to an attempt lower to take out the post-Brexit low of 1.3120/25 (for a move to the major 1.3000 level). However, it has been a week since Brexit and the lack of follow through has dented the downward momentum somewhat but confirmation of an interim low is only upon a break above 1.3600.

AUD/USD: Neutral: Expect choppy trading between 0.7305/0.7510. [No change in view]

AUD is rebounding quickly from the 0.7325 low seen on Monday. While the up-move appears to have scope to extend higher and test the strong 0.7510 resistance, a clear break above this level is not expected. In other words, we are holding on to our neutral view for now and expect AUD to continue to trade choppily within a 0.7305/0.7510 range

.

NZD/USD: Neutral: In a broad 0.6975/0.7170 range. [No change in view]

NZD came close to the major 0.6975 support on Monday (low of 0.6971) but rebounded sharply. The up-move is viewed as part of a broader consolidation and not the start of a sustained rally. That said, a test of the major resistance at 0.7170 would not be surprising. Overall, we continue to hold a neutral view and expect further range trading between 0.6975/0.7170.

USD/JPY: Neutral: In a broad 101.00/105.00 range.

While USD has been edging higher over the last several days, the up-move is lacking in momentum and the movement is viewed as part of a consolidation phase and not the start of a sustained rally. The outlook remains mixed, even from a short-term perspective and market seems undecided about what to do with this pair. Overall, we expect further range trading that is likely contained within a 101.00/105.00 range.

Best Regards

Market Commentary Team

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On 23/07/2011 at 5:21 AM, Guest mohammadbadr said:

Your capital does not necessarily affect your trading, but it usually do, to explain if you trade with a big capital you will satisfy with your profit even if it was consisting 1% of your capital, because the amount is good at the end, while if it was too small, here the emotions will take place and make you without intention enter with 20% of your capital or more, i think this is the only relation, otherwise it is the same trading.

of course capital will affect us 

i mean if your monthly spending is $200 for example. offcourse you will reach that target easily and less stressfull if you trade with $1000 or more balance than $100 balance

it varies depends on market conditions, but i always try to trade with 1 risk and 2 rewards

 

  
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• EURUSD: Upticks are seen as an opportunity to sell at better levels. We are bearish and look for resistance in the 1.1130 area to cap a move lower towards initial targets near Friday’s 1.0910 lows and then the 1.0840 area. Beyond there we are looking towards 1.0710.
• USDJPY: We are bearish and would prefer to fade upticks towards the 103.55 former range lows. Our targets are back to Friday’s 99.00 lows and further out towards the 94.80 area.
• GBPUSD: We are overall bearish and would look to use upticks as an opportunity to sell at better levels. The 1.3505 former range lows are expected to provide selling interest for a move lower towards targets near 1.3015 and then the 1.2750 area.
• AUDUSD: We are bearish and would use upticks towards 0.7520 as an opportunity to sell at better levels. A move below our initial targets near 0.7285 would signal lower towards the 0.7145 lows.
• NZDUSD: We would prefer to fade upticks in range towards resistance near 0.7175 and look for a move below our initial targets near 0.6960 to confirm downside traction. Our next targets are towards the 0.6810 area.
• USDCAD: We are cautiously bearish given the increased volumes on upticks and would fade upticks towards 1.3190. A move below targets near 1.2655 would signal lower towards the 1.2460 year-to-date lows.
  

Best Regards
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Brexit Wins: New Targets For GBP/USD, EUR/GBP - BTMU
Source : EFXNews

While the Brexit vote was a shock (we attached a 40/45% probability), we are not surprised by the initial currency market reaction. Cable still remains within our forecasted one-month range between 1.3000 and 1.5000.

In our previous base case scenario assuming that the UK voted to remain within the EU we were expecting cable to stabilise in the year ahead at around the 1.5000-level. However, the initial sharp pound weakness following the Brexit vote is fundamentally justified and is not overshooting in the near-term. The heightened political uncertainty in the UK including today’s resignation from Prime Minister Cameron with a new Conservative leader to be elected in early October, will continue to weigh heavily on the pound. The increased risk of recession in the UK and looser BoE policy in the year ahead justify a weaker pound. Capital inflows into the UK will also be dampened making it more challenging to the finance the UK’s elevated current account deficit requiring a weaker pound.

In these circumstances, we expect cable to fall into the mid-1.2000’s in the second half of this year before rebounding modestly back above the 1.3000- level in 2017 as heightened uncertainty gradually eases. The pound is already significantly weak according to our long-term valuation models which should help to dampen further downside unless there is a run on the pound.

We expect further more modest upside for EUR/GBP as well rising towards the mid to high 0.8000’s in the second half of this year before falling back towards the 0.8000-level in 2017. It is consistent with our alternative Brexit scenario outlined prior to the release of the referendum results.

Best Regards
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simple analytics for simple trader like me

Will sell EURGBP if EURGBP breaks the trendline,
and i will consider to look sell signal on other EURO pair or Buy signal on other GBP pair

could you define a good brokers?

for me a good broker is a broker who has no trading restrictionns, low minimum deposit , regulated by at least CySec

and found it with forexmart, tried it , and so far satisfied with their fixed 2 pips spreads , and leverage up to 1:1000

I think forexmart is a Good broker,
was deposit here with my $200 at may. 
and already made some withdrawals. 
highly reccomended broker. my request processed in max 48 hours after request.
a lil bit too long if we compare it with another broker. but i think it is still acceptable and reasonable timeframe.

i think i prefer instaforex for small money deposit..

this retail brokerage is a big boom now..

no one does not know this retail brokerage..

many unique contest..and has minimum deposit + cent account..

make me ,as a newbie,can feel how is the real market is

Re: Tingkah Aneh Para Trader / Investor

klo gw pas lagi loss..

balikin monitor sambil gw getok2 biar tu harga naek =))

ato matiin kompi,sambil berdoa.,ya Tuhan ,posisiQ d bikin profit dong

Re: Indicator. Perlu ga seh?

indikator d bilang perlu ga perlu...menurut gw sih tergantung trading system..klo profit why not,..

tp klo ampe 51 indi,,apa g ngelag tu chart bro?

51 indi=cpt ngabisin quota,.kekekek..

btw saya trading kadang pake..kadang engga...tp lebih nyaman klo pake indi sih bro..

Re: I have a dilemma :)

i only understand TA..

IMO FA is for the people that have direct accsess to the news?correct me if i wrong