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Gold Price and Crude Oil Price Eye Additional Gains Gold price started a fresh increase above the $1,820 resistance. Crude oil price is also rising and it is showing positive signs above $70.00. Important Takeaways for Gold and Oil Gold price started a fresh upward move after forming a base above $1,780 against the US Dollar. There was a break above a key bearish trend line with resistance near $1,805 on the hourly chart of gold. Crude oil price also gained pace and it broke the key $70.00 resistance zone. There is a major bullish trend line forming with support near $72.30 on the hourly chart of XTI/USD. Gold Price Technical Analysis This week, gold price formed a decent support base above the $1,792 zone against the US Dollar. The price started a fresh upward move and it surpassed the $1,800 resistance zone. The price even settled above the $1,820 level and the 50 hourly simple moving average. Besides, there was a break above a key bearish trend line with resistance near $1,805 on the hourly chart of gold. Finally, the price spiked above the $1,830 resistance and it traded as high as $1,832 on FXOpen. The price is now consolidating gains near $1,828. An initial support on the downside is near the $1,823 level. It is near the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $1,793 low to $1,832 high. The first major support is near the $1,818 level. The main support is now forming near the $1,810 level and the 50 hourly SMA. The 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $1,793 low to $1,832 high is also near $1,812. If there is a downside break, the price could test the $1,790 support. An immediate resistance on the upside is near the $1,832 level. The first major resistance is near the $1,840 level. If the price breaks the $1,840 level, it could accelerate higher. In the stated case, the price could rise towards the $1,850 zone. Read Full on FXOpen Company Blog... Â

LTC and EOS – Corrective movement seen LTC/USD The price of Litecoin has been on the rise from the 20th of July when it fell to $104 at its lowest point. From there we have seen an increase of 35.9% measured to its highest point today at $141.83. This last rise was made after a sharp impulsive decline in a slowly moving manner and even though it is still moving to the downside it barely made it past Monday’s high. These two signs – slowly moving price after a sharp decline and failure to make a significantly higher high are considered signs of weakness which is why soon a move to the downside would be expected. From the 20th of July have likely seen the completion of the five-wave impulse to Monday’s high. If this is true, then from Monday we have seen the start of the descending move with the rise from Tuesday being its 2nd sub-wave. This can be a minor three-wave flat correction with the price continuing its upward trajectory after as it made a slightly higher high compared to Monday’s one. Another possibility could be that this descending move is going to be larger but there aren’t still signs on how it can play out. Considering the fact that this move is counted as corrective this structure can be labeled as the A wave from the higher degree ABC count. Read Full on FXOpen Company Blog...  Â

Bitcoin May Reach ATH On July 27, Reuters released a rebuttal from an Amazon spokesman regarding the company’s plans to implement Bitcoin. “Notwithstanding our interest in the space, the speculation that has ensued around our specific plans for cryptocurrencies is not true,” the source said. On the backdrop of this new turn, the Bitcoin rate fell, but what is important, it didn’t fall lower than the July 26 level, when London’s City AM newspaper cited an unnamed insider saying Amazon had intentions to accept Bitcoin payments until the end of the year. The fact that the official clarification did not bring the price back to the starting point suggests a bullish market sentiment. Mike McGlone, Bloomberg’s Intelligence senior commodity strategist, is of the opinion that BTC quotes are more likely to return to the $60,000 mark than fall to $20,000. The price of Bitcoin fluctuates around the psychological level of $40k. The level of $36k — the base of the July 26 large-volume candlestick — is important. As long as the bulls keep the price above this level, the situation looks encouraging. FXOpen Blog  Â

EUR/USD and EUR/JPY: Euro Eyes More Upsides EUR/USD formed a support base above 1.1780 and corrected higher. EUR/JPY is also rising and it could gain pace above the 130.00 resistance. Important Takeaways for EUR/USD and EUR/JPY The Euro extended its decline towards the 1.1750 level before recovering higher. There was a break above a key contracting triangle with resistance near 1.1805 on the hourly chart. EUR/JPY climbed higher nicely and it even settled above the 129.50 zone. There is a major contracting triangle forming with support near 129.70 on the hourly chart. EUR/USD Technical Analysis The Euro extended its decline below 1.1800 against the US Dollar. However, the EUR/USD pair remained well bid above the 1.1750 support zone. The pair formed a base near 1.1760 and it recently started a decent upward move. It surpassed the 1.1800 resistance zone and the 50 hourly simple moving average. There was also a break above a key contracting triangle with resistance near 1.1805 on the hourly chart. The pair traded as high as 1.1841 on FXOpen and it is now correcting gains. There was a break below the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the recent wave from the 1.1770 swing low to 1.1841 high. The pair is now finding bids near the 1.1810 support zone. The next key support is near the 1.1805 level. It is near the 50% Fib retracement level of the recent wave from the 1.1770 swing low to 1.1841 high. Any more losses might call for a move towards the 1.1780 support. Any more losses might lead EUR/USD towards the 1.1750 support zone. On the upside, an initial resistance is near the 1.1830 level. The first major resistance is near the 1.1850 level. Any more gains could set the pace for a move towards the 1.1900 level. The next major resistance is near the 1.1920 level. Read Full on FXOpen Company Blog...

BTC and XRP – Upward move likely ended BTC/USD The price of Bitcoin has been on the rise since the 20th of July when it fell down to $29.316 at its lowest point. From there we have seen an increase of 38.7% as it came up to $40,679 at its highest point yesterday. Today the price fell down to $36,500 area and is now moving to the upside again, but the downfall of 10% might be indicative of the completion of the prior upward movement. You can see that the price almost reached its most significant resistance zone at around $41,000 but failed to make interaction. The upward move from the 20th of July was impulsive in sections but the wave structure doesn’t imply a five-wave pattern. Instead, we could be looking at an ABC correction to the upside before the next downward move. The upward movement looks completed either way so now at least a retracement would be expected if not a start of a new downtrend. Read Full on FXOpen Company Blog...

EUR/USD Eyes Fresh Increase, USD/JPY Could Extend Losses EUR/USD is likely to start a steady increase if it clears the 1.1920 resistance zone. USD/JPY could extend its decline below the 110.40 support zone in the near term. Important Takeaways for EUR/USD and USD/JPY The Euro is consolidating losses above the 1.1880 support zone. There is a key bearish trend line forming with resistance near 1.1915 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD. USD/JPY declined below the 110.00 and 110.60 support levels. There is a major declining channel forming with resistance near 110.85 on the hourly chart. EUR/USD Technical Analysis After a close below 1.2000, the Euro saw bearish moves against the US Dollar. The EUR/USD pair even tested the 1.1850 support zone before starting a decent upward move. The pair climbed above the 1.1900 resistance zone. It even broke 1.1950 and the 50 hourly simple moving average. However, the pair failed to clear the 1.2000 zone. A high was formed near 1.1974 on FXOpen and the pair corrected gains. It tested the 1.1880 zone and it is now rising. There was a break above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the 1.1974 high to 1.1877 low. It is now facing resistance near the 1.1915 zone and the 50 hourly simple moving average. There is also a key bearish trend line forming with resistance near 1.1915 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD. The next key resistance is near the 1.1925 level. The 50% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the 1.1974 high to 1.1877 low is also near 1.1925. A close above 1.1915 and 1.1925 could open the doors for a steady increase. An intermediate support is near the 1.1880 level. The next major support is near the 1.1850 level, below which the pair could drop towards the 1.1800 support. Read Full on FXOpen Company Blog... Â Â

Financial Markets Turn Their Attention to Jobs Data Financial markets reversed their initial reaction after the latest FOMC Statement and press conference. In the two days that followed the June Fed meeting, the US dollar gained ground significantly against its peers in the developed world. As such, the EURUSD fell from above 1.22 to 1.1850, the AUDUSD dropped a couple of hundred of pips, while the GBPUSD was strongly rejected at the 1.42. Also, stocks dropped in the United States and triggered a sharp decline in other equity markets too. But it all lasted only two days. The week that just ended has seen the market participants changing their minds. Stocks reversed sharply, the US dollar weakness resumed, and overall risk-on outperformed. What changed in the meantime? The answer comes from the Fed. Last Tuesday, Fed’s Chair Jerome Powell testified in front of the House Select Subcommittee on the Coronavirus Crisis, and he downplayed the hawkish statement. Moreover, Fed members held speeches the entire week, reassuring markets that the accommodative measures will remain in place for quite some time despite the hawkish dot plot. Furthermore, the Fed still sees inflation as transitory. Food and energy prices are expected to come down past 2021, even though right now inflation exceeds the Fed’s target. Focus Turns to Job Creation Now that the inflation has reached the Fed’s target, the only chance the US dollar bulls have is for the job market to show significant improvements. While the strong economic growth and improvements in the labor market should bode well for the currency and the stock market indices, further developments in the labor market will bring the Fed closer to its job creation mandate. Therefore, the Fed’s hawkish message will have greater credibility if the US economy is able to create more jobs. We will find out as soon as next week the current state of the labor market as the Non-Farm Payrolls report for the month of May is due. FXOpen Blog Â

GBP/USD and EUR/GBP: British Pound Could Continue To Struggle GBP/USD failed to clear the key 1.4000 resistance zone and corrected lower. EUR/GBP is rising and it might gain pace if it clears the 0.8600 barrier. Important Takeaways for GBP/USD and EUR/GBP The British Pound failed to gain pace above the main 1.4000 resistance zone. There is a major bearish trend line forming with resistance near 1.3920 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD. EUR/GBP started a fresh increase after it found a strong support near the 0.8530 zone. There is a short-term contracting triangle forming with resistance near 0.8595 on the hourly chart. GBP/USD Technical Analysis The British Pound failed to reclaim the 1.4000 handle and it started a fresh decline against the US Dollar. The GBP/USD pair broke the 1.3900 support zone and the 50 hourly simple moving average. The pair even spiked below 1.3800 before it found support near 1.3785. A low was formed near 1.3786 and the pair recently started an upside correction. There was a break above the 1.3850 and 1.3900 resistance levels. The pair even moved above 1.3950, but it failed to clear the 1.4000 resistance zone. A high was formed near 1.4000 and the pair is now moving lower. It broke the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 1.3786 swing low to 1.4000 high. It is now trading below 1.3900 and the 50 hourly simple moving average. There is also a major bearish trend line forming with resistance near 1.3920 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD. An immediate support on the downside is near the 1.3865 level. It is near the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 1.3786 swing low to 1.4000 high. A downside break below the 1.3865 level might call for a fresh decline towards the 1.3800 level. On the upside, an immediate resistance is near the 1.3920 level. The next major resistance is near the 1.4000 level. A successful close above 1.3920 and a follow up move above 1.4000 could open the doors for a move towards the 1.4120 resistance. Read Full on FXOpen Company Blog... Â

AUD/USD and NZD/USD Eye More Upsides Above Resistance AUD/USD started a decent recovery wave above 0.7550. NZD/USD is also rising and it could continue to rise if it clears the 0.7100 resistance zone. Important Takeaways for AUD/USD and NZD/USD The Aussie Dollar found support near 0.7475 after a steady decline against the US Dollar. There is a key bullish trend line forming with support near 0.7560 on the hourly chart of AUD/USD. NZD/USD also started a decent increase from the 0.6925 zone, and it climbed above 0.7000. There is a major bullish trend line forming with support near 0.7050 on the hourly chart of NZD/USD. AUD/USD Technical Analysis After a major decline, the Aussie Dollar found support near the 0.7475 zone against the US Dollar. The AUD/USD pair started a steady recovery after it broke the 0.7500 resistance zone. It broke the 0.7550 resistance zone and the 50 hourly simple moving average. The pair even broke the 38.2% Fib retracement level of the key decline from the 0.7715 high to 0.7476 low (formed on FXOpen). An initial resistance on the upside is near the 0.7595. It is near the 50% Fib retracement level of the key decline from the 0.7715 high to 0.7476 low. A proper break above the 0.7595 and 0.7600 resistance levels could open the doors for a steady increase. The next major resistance is near the 0.7660 level. Any more gains could lead the pair towards the 0.7700 level. Conversely, the pair could correct gains from 0.7600. An initial support on the downside is near the 0.7560 level. There is also a key bullish trend line forming with support near 0.7560 on the hourly chart of AUD/USD. The next major support is near the 0.7550 level. If there is a downside break below the trend line support, the pair could extend its decline towards the 0.7500 level. Read Full on FXOpen Company Blog... Â

LTC and EOS – The start of a another recovery seen most likely LTC/USD The price of Litecoin has been on the rise since Tuesday when it came down to $104.9 at its lowest point. From there we have seen an increase of 27% as it reached $133.3 at its highest point today. Currently, it is trading slightly lower but is still in an upward trajectory. On the hourly chart, we can see that the price fell into a lower low compared to the May 23rd one and spiked to the upside, reaching the broken downtrend support which is being now tested for resistance. If the price finds resistance here another move to the downside would be expected, but only as a pullback before further upside continuation. This is so because on the 22nd we have most likely seen the end of the corrective five-wave move from the 27th of May so now a move to the upside like it developed from the 23rd till the 27th would be expected. The price could now increase as much as 35% but it would be expected to go lower than on the 27th when it came up to $209. This is because the price made a lower low which is why a lower high would be more likely. Another possibility could be that we have seen the start of a completely new impulse wave to the upside and that the 22nd of June’s low was the completion of the higher degree down move. But this is going to be validated from the type of descending move we see after this expected rise. Read Full on FXOpen Company Blog...   Â

The Federal Reserve Turns Hawkish, Sending the US Dollar Higher Last Wednesday, the Federal Reserve of the United States (Fed) took financial markets by surprise. It delivered a hawkish message, as suggested by the dot plot that showed two possible rate hikes in 2023, rather than just one as the market participants expected. As a reminder to all traders and investors, the Fed has a dual mandate – to maintain price stability and to create jobs. It delivers its monetary decisions based on interpreting the balance between the two parts of its mandate. While job creation posed challenges due to the coronavirus pandemic, the Fed had an easier task fulfilling the inflation-targeting mandate. Like most central banks in the developed world, the Fed targets inflation close to 2%. Or, at least it used to have this target. It changed it last August. At the Jackson Hole Symposium last August, the Fed shifted its inflation target from reaching close to 2% to averaging 2%. From that moment on, speculations mounted as to what is the period the Fed will consider for averaging inflation. Based on its recent decision, it appears that inflation, and not employment, is a concern for the Fed. US Dollar Ripping Higher on Hawkish Fed One may say that the Fed took markets by surprise, but the staff’s economic projections left no other choice. The US economic growth forecast was lifted higher for both 2021 and 2023, and so was the inflation forecast. As such, the Fed raised the interest rate on excess reserves by five basis points in a first attempt to normalize rates. Judging by the market’s reaction, they were taken by surprise as the US dollar gained across the board on the Fed’s message. The EURUSD pair closed the week well below 1.19, after trading with a bid tone above 1.21 for most of the past two months. Also, the AUDUSD or the GBPUSD lost ground, in a piece of further evidence that the US dollar bears were taken by surprise. Moving forward, it remains to be seen what will other central banks do. Brazil already reacted, by raising the interest rates, in a classic move from an emerging market’s central bank after the Fed turns hawkish. The big question is – what will other central banks from the developed world do? The first one to watch is the Bank of England, as the Monetary Policy Committee is due to deliver its decision this upcoming Thursday. FXOpen Blog

GBP/USD Nosedives, USD/CAD Starts Major Increase GBP/USD started a sharp downward move after it failed to clear 1.4200. USD/CAD is surging and it recently cleared the 1.2440 resistance zone. Important Takeaways for GBP/USD and USD/CAD The British Pound started a fresh decline from well above the 1.4100 level. There is a key bearish trend line forming with resistance near 1.3850 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD. USD/CAD gained bullish momentum above the 1.2350 and 1.2400 resistance levels. There is a major bullish trend line forming with support near 1.2410 on the hourly chart. GBP/USD Technical Analysis The British Pound made a couple of attempts to settle above 1.4150 and clear 1.4200 against the US Dollar. However, the GBP/USD pair failed to continue higher, and it started a fresh decline from well above the 1.4100 level. The pair gained bearish momentum below the key 1.4000 support zone. There was a clear break below the 1.3920 support level and the 50 hourly simple moving average. The pair even broke the 1.3840 support and traded as low as 1.3790 on FXOpen. The pair is now consolidating losses above the 1.3800 level. An initial resistance on the upside is near the 1.3840 level. There is also a key bearish trend line forming with resistance near 1.3850 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD. The next hurdle is near the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.4132 swing high to 1.3790 low. The main hurdle is near the 1.3900 level and the 50 hourly simple moving average. Any more gains could lead the pair towards the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.4132 swing high to 1.3790 low. An initial support on the downside is near the 1.3800 level. The first major support is near the 1.3780 level. Any more losses could open the doors for a move towards the 1.3720 support zone. The next major support sits near the 1.3650 level. Read Full on FXOpen Company Blog... Â

Gold Price Slides Below Key Support, Oil Price Trims Gains Gold price started a major decline below the $1,850 and $1,820 support levels. Crude oil price is also trimming gains and it traded below $70.50. Important Takeaways for Gold and Oil Gold price started a fresh decline from well above the $1,850 level against the US Dollar. There is a connecting bearish trend line forming with resistance near $1,825 on the hourly chart of gold. Crude oil price climbed higher towards $72.75 before correcting lower. There was a break below a major bullish trend line with support near $71.20 on the hourly chart of XTI/USD. Gold Price Technical Analysis This week, gold price faced an increase in selling pressure near $1,900 against the US Dollar. The price started a major decline and it traded below many important supports near $1,880 and $1,850. The price even settled below the $1,850 level and the 50 hourly simple moving average. There was a break below the $1,820 support and $1,800. A low is formed near $1,762 on FXOpen and the price is now correcting losses. An immediate resistance on the upside is near the $1,790 level. It is near the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the $1,862 swing high to $1,762 low. The first major resistance is near the $1,800 level. There is also a connecting bearish trend line forming with resistance near $1,825 on the hourly chart of gold. An intermediate resistance is near the $1,815 level and the 50 hourly SMA. The 50% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the $1,862 swing high to $1,762 low is also near the $1,815 level. Conversely, the price might resume its decline below $1,780. An initial support is near the $1,775 level. The first major support is near the $1,765 level. The next key support is near the $1,750 level, below which the price might continue to move down towards the $1,720 level in the near term. Read Full on FXOpen Company Blog...

LTC and EOS – Was the correction over? LTC/USD The price of Litecoin has been in recovery from the 8th of June when it fell to around $146 at its lowest point. From there the price went on to form a higher low and higher high to $180 area, breaking out from the symmetrical triangle in which it was since the 27th of May. Today we have seen a pullback as a retest of the prior resistance for support, and as support was present we have seen a bounce from there. Currently, the price is being traded at $172.5 area and is still moving in an upward trajectory. Looking at the hourly chart you can see that the price of Litecoin most likely ended its corrective stage on the 8th of June. This could have been an ABC correction from the 27th of May when the first impulsive move was seen. If so, then from the 8th we have seen the start of another impulse wave to the upside. Another possibility in a positive scenario could be that the price made a five-wave correction count ABCDE to the 12th of June from where the next impulse started. In that case the price has made a three-wave increase with the today seen pullback being its 4th wave out of the five-wave impulse. Now in both of these positive scenarios, the price would be expected to go higher to the upside in an impulsive manner and make a higher high compared to the one on the 27th of May when the price reached $208.89. However, there is a negative scenario still in play. If the price ended its three-wave ABC correction on the 8th of June the next structure could end as a three-wave correction to the upside before another downfall. In that case, the price could continue its downward trajectory in the short-term and fall back below the triangle’s resistance level and also the starting point of the prior increase at about $154.3. Read Full on FXOpen Company Blog... Â

EUR/USD and EUR/JPY: Euro Eyes Fresh Increase EUR/USD struggled to clear 1.2200 and recently corrected lower. EUR/JPY is trading in a positive zone, but it must clear 133.70 for more upsides. Important Takeaways for EUR/USD and EUR/JPY The Euro declined below the 1.2150 and 1.2120 support levels, and tested 1.2100. There is a key bearish trend line forming with resistance near 1.2142 on the hourly chart. EUR/JPY gained pace after it broke the 132.80 and 133.00 resistance levels. There was a break above a major bearish trend line with resistance near 132.90 on the hourly chart. EUR/USD Technical Analysis The Euro started a fresh decline from the 1.2200 resistance zone against the US Dollar. The EUR/USD pair broke the 1.2150 and 1.2120 support levels to move into a short-term bearish zone. The pair even settled well below 1.2150 and the 50 hourly simple moving average. A low was formed near 1.2092 on FXOpen and the pair is now correcting losses. There was a break above the 1.2120 resistance level and the 50 hourly SMA. There was also a break above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the recent drop from the 1.2192 high to 1.2092 low. The pair is now facing a strong resistance near the 1.2140 and 1.2150 levels. There is also a key bearish trend line forming with resistance near 1.2142 on the hourly chart. The trend line is close to the 50% Fib retracement level of the recent drop from the 1.2192 high to 1.2092 low. A proper break above the trend line resistance could pop the pair higher towards the 1.2200 resistance zone. The next major resistance is near the 1.2220 level. Any more gains could set the pace for a fresh high above the 1.2150 level in the near term. On the downside, an immediate support is near the 1.2100 level. If there is a downside break, EUR/USD might continue to move down towards the 1.2060 support. Any more losses could open the doors for a test of the 1.2020 support region. Read Full on FXOpen Company Blog... Â

BTC and XRP – Recovery could end soon BTC/USD The price of Bitcoin has been on the rise since the 8th of June when it fell to the $31,000 zone again. From there we have seen an increase of 31% measured to its highest point yesterday at $40,750. Now it is being traded slightly lower but is still in an upward trajectory overall. You can see that the price fell for the third time to the $31,000 zone on the 8th of June on the hourly chart. This was done in a three-wave manner from the May 26th high but also from its June 3rd high. This creates a problem in counting waves as there isn’t still a clear sign that the price bottomed out. However for now we can assume that the price found support again on the 8th after which we have seen an impulsive rise. This could be an indication that we have seen the start of a new wave to the upside which is set to recover the price more significantly. If this is true then the price should now develop a five-wave pattern which is why a higher high from here could be expected to the vicinity of the horizontal range of $42,000. After that the 2nd wave of the higher degree count should retrace the price before a breakout above the zone. Read Full on FXOpen Company Blog...

Core US Inflation – The Highest Two-Months Increase in Three Decades The US inflation data for the month of May was released last week. The data came out at the same time as the European Central Bank started its monetary policy meeting last Thursday. Because the two events were the main events of the trading week, the markets did not move in the prior days. In fact, the ranges on most of the FX pairs were so tight that one may have argued that summer trading conditions are already here. When the Consumer Price Index (CPI) was released, it showed that the prices of goods and services in May were increasing much faster than expected. As always, the CPI comes in two versions – the headline report and the core report. The latter is the one that matters for the Fed because it is not considering the food and energy prices – too volatile to be included in the report. The headline CPI data for the month of May was expected to increase by 0.4% – it came out at 0.6% on a month-over-month basis. Also, the core data was expected at 0.5% – it came out at 0.7%. With both headline and the core CPI beating expectations by a mile, coupled with the inflation data for the previous months, we see the highest two-month increase in inflation in three decades. What About the Fed? The Federal Reserve of the United States (Fed) has a dual mandate. To create jobs and to maintain price stability. Naturally, inflation refers to the price stability part of the Fed’s mandate, and this one changed during the pandemic. More precisely, the Fed shifted its inflation mandate last August, from targeting 2% to averaging 2%. Out of the two releases, the Fed focuses on the core CPI. Yet, the Fed did not mention so far what is period it considers when averaging inflation. The longer the period, the more it will allow inflation to rise. At the start of the 1970s, as inflation escalated, then US President Nixon abandoned the Bretton Woods system, shocking financial markets and the international community. At the end of that decade, the Fed’s Chair, Paul Volcker, introduced bold anti-inflationary measures because inflation exceeded 13% on an annualized basis. Last week’s data means that the core CPI reached 3.8% in the United States on an annualized basis. Central banks like the Fed argue that this is transitory and that the prices will cool down eventually. While there is a long way to 13%, no one is expecting the Fed to raise the rates as Volker did back in 1979. Instead, all the Fed should do is to signal the tapering of its asset purchases. That might do the trick to stop the upside pressures on the prices of goods and services, and the Fed has the chance to do so this week, at its Wednesday meeting. FXOpen Blog

GBP/USD and GBP/JPY: British Pound Eyes Fresh Increase GBP/USD is trading nicely above the main 1.4080 support zone. GBP/JPY is recovering and it could rally if there is a clear break above the 155.00 resistance zone. Important Takeaways for GBP/USD and GBP/JPY The British Pound is trading in a range above the 1.4080 support against the US Dollar. There is a key bullish trend line forming with support near 1.4100 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD. GBP/JPY is showing a few positive signs above the 154.50 support zone. There is a major bearish trend line forming with resistance near 155.00 on the hourly chart. GBP/USD Technical Analysis In the past few sessions, the British Pound mostly traded in a range below the 1.4200 resistance zone against the US Dollar. The GBP/USD pair declined recently after it failed to settle above 1.4180. There was break below the 1.4150 support level and the 50 hourly simple moving average. The pair even traded below 1.4100, but it remained well bid above the 1.4080 level. A low is formed near 1.4086 on FXOpen and the pair is currently consolidating. There was a break above the 1.4100 level. The pair recovered above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the 1.4184 high to 1.4086 low. On the upside, an initial resistance on the is near the 1.4135 level. It is close to the 50% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the 1.4184 high to 1.4086 low. The next key resistance is near the 1.4150 level, above which the pair could rise towards the main 1.4200 resistance. On the downside, there is a key bullish trend line forming with support near 1.4100 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD. If there is a break below the trend line support, the pair could test the 1.4080 support. If there are additional losses, the pair could decline towards the 1.4000 level. Read Full on FXOpen Company Blog...

BTC and XRP – Bearish scenario expected BTC/USD From yesterday’s open the price of Bitcoin has increased by 12.44% coming from its lowest point of $31,030 to $34,891 at its highest but has since then made a downfall. The price fell back to the same levels as on yesterday’s low and is now starting to make another recovery attempt. Currently it is sitting at around $32,221. Looking at the hourly chart, you can see that the price made a recovery from the 22nd of January when it fell to $28,785 at its lowest wick. The decrease to those levels was the completion of the 3rd wave from the corrective structure that started developing after the all-time high. We could have seen the completion of the correction, but the wave structure is still looking more corrective than impulsive on the recovery that followed. This is why more likely, we are seeing the corrective wave continuation in the form of the second wave X from the WXYXZ complex count. As you can see the price made a descending triangle from its all-time high and since it made interaction with its resistance level, now we are going to have a validation of the assumed scenario as if the price is in a prolonged correction now the Z wave is shortly going to start developing. That means that now a breakout to the downside would be shortly expected. If this starts developing the price of Bitcoin could fall back to the $24,000 area where the next significant horizontal support level in line with the downside. This would be a downfall of just over 30% which would be a highly significant one. XRP/USD The price of Ripple has been moving sideways from the 22nd of January when it spiked down to $0.24 area from where it made a recovery to $0.28 level. Since the price has been in this horizontal range we have seen further support and resistance testing with the price currently sitting at $0.26645. As you can see from the hourly chart, the price has previously made a breakout to the upside from the descending triangle in which it was since the 8th of January but failed to continue moving to the upside. The assumed scenario was the five-wave impulse to the upside but since the price spiked inside the territory of the 1st wave this is starting to get invalidated. Instead, more likely we have seen a three-wave upside corrective move before further downside continuation. However, the quick spike on the 22nd could have been the completion of the 4th wave although unlikely at this point. In the upcoming period, we are going to see if the invalidation gets confirmed and that is going to be indicated from the breakout direction of the current horizontal range. FXOpen Blog

Decisive Week for the Dollar as the Fed’s Meeting Looms Large Financial markets started the new year on the same note as the previous year ended – higher stocks, lower dollar. The extent of the advance in the stock market, or the decline in the dollar, led many market participants to wonder if the Fed’s monetary policy did not lead to financial bubbles? After all, a survey shows that over 25% of the market participants still believe that Bitcoin will double from the current levels. Or, 18% believe that the price of Tesla will double over the next twelve months. That is, in the context of Bitcoin already rising from $10,000 to $40,000 in the last months and Tesla already being up over 650% in 2020. Will the Dollar Weakness Stop? To many, the weakness in the dollar is responsible for such extreme price action. If we are to see a change in the trend, as suggested by the 56% of the market participants that expect a higher dollar against Bitcoin for the next twelve months, then the risk may come from Wednesday Fed’s decision. On Wednesday, the Fed is expected to keep the monetary policy unchanged – the federal funds rate at the lower boundary and the QE program running at $120 billion/month. However, this week, the focus will shift from the FOMC Statement to the Fed’s press conference. More precisely, it will be more important what the Fed thinks about the future economic outlook. In the face of the rapid pace of vaccinations (i.e., the United States already vaccinated 6% of its population), the risk is that the Fed will deliver a slightly hawkish outlook for the future economic recovery. If that is the case, the dollar may turn in the expectation of the future tapering of the quantitative easing program. Last week the ECB delivered a slightly hawkish statement too. It said that it may or may not use the full envelope of the PEPP program, despite the fact that many European countries face the worse of the pandemic right now. As such, one should not discount a hawkish Fed too. If that happens, the USD will make a U-turn because the reflation trade that went on for months now seems to be extremely stretched. As we saw in 2020, the dollar’s direction matters for the equity markets and other markets too. For stocks to remain close to all-time highs, the correlation with the dollar must break. Will we see such a divergence on Wednesday? Or will the reflation trade continue after the Fed’s first meeting of the year? FXOpen Blog

GBP/USD and EUR/GBP: British Pound Remains Strong GBP/USD extended its rise above the 1.3680 and 1.3700 resistance levels. EUR/GBP is correcting lower and it is approaching a major support near 0.8875. Important Takeaways for GBP/USD and EUR/GBP The British Pound remained well bid above 1.3600 and it climbed above 1.3680. There is a key contracting triangle forming with resistance near 1.3715 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD. EUR/GBP started a fresh decline after it failed to clear the main 0.8920 resistance zone. Earlier, there was a break above a short-term bearish trend line with resistance near 0.0.8860 on the hourly chart. GBP/USD Technical Analysis After forming a base above the 1.3500 and 1.3520, there was a fresh increase in the British Pound against the US Dollar. The GBP/USD pair broke the 1.3580 and 1.3600 resistance levels to move into a positive zone. The pair gained momentum above 1.3600 and it even spiked above the 1.3680 resistance. There was also a break above the 1.3700 zone and the pair settled above the 50 hourly simple moving average. A new multi-month high was formed near 1.3746 on FXOpen before the pair started a downside correction. It traded below the 1.3680 support level and the 50 hourly simple moving average, but the bulls protected the 1.3640 level. A low is formed near 1.3636 and the pair is currently rising. It is trading above the 1.3680 level, the 50 hourly simple moving average, and the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.3746 high to 1.3636 low. It seems like there is a key contracting triangle forming with resistance near 1.3715 on the hourly chart of GBP/USD. An immediate resistance is near the 1.3700 zone or the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.3746 high to 1.3636 low. A successful break above the 1.3700 and 1.3715 levels could open the doors for a new high above the 1.3746 in the near term. Conversely, the pair could break the triangle support and continue lower towards the main 1.3620 support level. EUR/GBP Technical Analysis The Euro started a fresh increase from the 0.8830 low against the British Pound. The EUR/GBP pair broke the 0.8850 and 0.8860 resistance levels to move into a positive zone. There was also a break above a short-term bearish trend line with resistance near 0.0.8860 on the hourly chart. The pair surged above the 0.8900 level, but it struggled to clear a major hurdle near the 0.8920 zone. A high is formed near 0.8918 and the pair is currently declining. It broke the 0.8900 level and tested the 38.2% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 0.8830 swing low to 0.8918 high. On the downside, there is a major support waiting near the 0.8875 level and the 50 hourly simple moving average. It is also close to the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 0.8830 swing low to 0.8918 high. Any more losses could lead the pair towards the 0.8850 support level in the near term. Conversely, the pair could start a fresh increase from the 0.8875 support zone. On the upside, the 0.8900 level is a short-term resistance for the Euro bulls. However, the main hurdle is still near 0.8920, above which EUR/GBP could rally towards the 0.9000 resistance. FXOpen Blog

AUD/USD and NZD/USD Approaching Next Key Break AUD/USD is trading well above 0.7700, but is facing hurdles near 0.7780 and 0.7800. NZD/USD is also showing positive signs, but there is a crucial resistance forming near 0.7225-0.7240. Important Takeaways for AUD/USD and NZD/USD The Aussie Dollar started a fresh increase above the 0.7720 resistance levels against the US Dollar. There is a major contracting triangle forming with support near 0.7740 on the hourly chart of AUD/USD. NZD/USD also climbed higher, but it is facing a strong resistance near 0.7225 and 0.7240. A key bullish trend line is forming with support near 0.7185 on the hourly chart of NZD/USD. AUD/USD Technical Analysis After forming a support base near 0.7660, the Aussie Dollar started a fresh increase against the US Dollar. The AUD/USD pair broke the 0.7700 resistance level to move into a positive zone. The pair even broke the 0.7720 resistance and settled above the 50 hourly simple moving average. A high is formed near 0.7782 on FXOpen and the pair is currently correcting lower. There was a break below the 0.7760 support level. The pair even traded below the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 0.7720 swing low to 0.7782 high. It is now testing the 0.7745 support level and the 50 hourly simple moving average. There is also a major contracting triangle forming with support near 0.7740 on the hourly chart of AUD/USD. The triangle support is close to the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 0.7720 swing low to 0.7782 high. If there is a downside break below the triangle support, there is a risk of more losses. The next major support on the downside is near the 0.7720 level. On the upside, the 0.7770 level is an immediate resistance. A clear break above the 0.7770 and 0.7780 levels may possibly open the doors for a larger increase towards 0.7800 and 0.7840 in the coming sessions. NZD/USD Technical Analysis The New Zealand Dollar also followed a similar path above the 0.7120 support against the US Dollar. The NZD/USD pair broke the 0.7200 resistance to move back into a positive zone. However, the pair is facing a strong resistance near the 0.7225 and 0.7240 levels. A high is formed near 0.7225 and the pair is currently correcting lower. It traded below the 0.7200 level, but it is well above the 50 hourly simple moving average. It is trading just below the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 0.7177 swing low to 0.7225 high. On the downside, there is a key bullish trend line forming with support near 0.7185 on the hourly chart of NZD/USD. The trend line is close to the 76.4% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 0.7177 swing low to 0.7225 high. If there is a downside break below the trend line support, there is a risk of more losses towards the 0.7150 and 0.7120 support levels. Conversely, the pair could remain well bid above the 0.7180 support zone. On the upside, the 0.7225 and 0.7240 levels are crucial hurdles. A clear break and close above the 0.7240 level could set the pace for a strong increase towards the 0.7300 level. FXOpen Blog

Litecoin and EOS – Bears are in control LTC/USD The price of Litecoin has been in a decline since Tuesday when it was sitting at $166.11 and made a downfall to $130 level today, which was a decrease of 21.74%. Now the price is being traded slightly higher but is still in a downward trajectory. Looking at the hourly chart, you can see that the price made a breakout below the ascending channel that formed since the 11th of January when the price fell to the $112.33 area. From there a recovery was made all the way up above the $160 level but now another impulsive descending move has been seen which is most likely the continuation of the corrective decrease. If this is the three-wave corrective decline from the 10th of January the move to the downside would be expected to continue and surpass the prior low at $112 and could potentially continue all the way down to $82.9. However, there is a possibility that this is going to be a triangle formation of the higher degree in which this three-wave move could be its first sub-wave. In that case, the price could make another significant recovery before this move to the $82.9 horizontal level. The price has found support at 0.236 Fib level at least a temporary one, so now we are going to see what happens as if it manages to stay up the recovery might come. EOS/USD From its Tuesday’s high at $2.926 the price of EOS has decreased by 12.18% as it came down to $2.579 at its lowest wick today. Now the price is looking like it has stabilized above the $2.62 level and is establishing support. On the hourly chart, you can see that the price has made a breakout from the ascending channel like in the case of Litecoin but the pattern isn’t as similar as the price of EOS made a more significant decrease from the 10th of January till the 11th then it has now since Tuesday. We have seen a decrease of over 37% till the 11th of January and if this descending move is the continuation of that move, the price could be expected to go significantly lower. But another round of hard-selling like it occurred then isn’t likely to play out. More likely we are going to see a further decrease to some of the horizontal support levels out of which the first one in line would be the 11th January low, but the next one is just below the $2 mark. The price could make another impulsive move to the vicinity of the lower horizontal level, but like in the case of Litecoin that might not come in a straight line. FXOpen Blog

EUR/USD Recovering Losses, USD/JPY Remains At Risk EUR/USD started a downside correction from well above 1.2300 and recently found support near 1.2055. USD/JPY is showing bearish signs and it could decline heavily below 103.50. Important Takeaways for EUR/USD and USD/JPY The Euro remained well bid above 1.2050 and started a fresh increase. There was a break above a major bearish trend line with resistance near 1.2120 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD. USD/JPY is declining and showing bearish signs below the 104.00 resistance. There is a key bearish trend line forming with resistance near 103.98 on the hourly chart. EUR/USD Technical Analysis In the past few days, there was a steady decline in the Euro from well above 1.2200 against the US Dollar. The EUR/USD pair even broke the 1.2120 support level, but it remained well bid above 1.2050. A low was formed near 1.2053 on FXOpen before the pair is currently recovering losses. There was a break above the 1.2100 resistance level and the 50 hourly simple moving average, opening the doors for a steady increase. There was also a break above a major bearish trend line with resistance near 1.2120 on the hourly chart of EUR/USD. The pair even broke the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.2222 swing high to 1.2053 low. An immediate resistance is near the 1.2058 level. It is close to the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the 1.2222 swing high to 1.2053 low. The main resistance is near the 1.2175, above which EUR/USD is likely to accelerate higher. Conversely, the pair could start a fresh decline below the 1.2135 support. The first major support is near the 1.2115 zone. If there is a downside break below the 1.2115 support zone, the pair could continue to move down. In the stated case, there are high chances of a retest of the 1.2053 swing low in the near term. Â USD/JPY Technical Analysis The US Dollar seems to be trading in a broad range below the 104.20 and 104.50 resistance levels against the Japanese Yen. The USD/JPY pair formed a high near 104.08, and recently started a fresh decline. There was a break below the 103.85 support level the 50 hourly simple moving average. The pair also declined below the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 103.63 low to 104.08 high. It is now trading near a key support at 103.75. It is close to the 76.4% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the 103.63 low to 104.08 high. If there is a downside break below the 103.75 level, the pair could move towards the main 103.50 support zone. The stated 103.50 support holds the key, below which the pair could decline heavily in the near term. On the upside, the first major resistance is near the 103.85 level. There is also a key bearish trend line forming with resistance near 103.98 on the hourly chart. A clear break above the trend line is must for a steady increase. The next key resistance could be near 104.20, above which USD/JPY could revisit 104.50. Any more gains may possibly increase the chances of a test of the 105.00 level in the near term. FXOpen Blog

BTC and XRP – Prices continue to rise BTC/USD The price of Bitcoin has been moving sideways since last week as it came up to $40,000 area but then fell to $33,813 at its lowest point yesterday. This occurred after recovery and now we are seeing another minor one with the price reaching $37,486. Currently, it is being traded slightly lower but is still in an upward trajectory. Looking at the 4 hour chart, you can see that the price made it slightly below the 0.382 Fib level on Sunday’s low but managed to pull back up above it. This could indicate that support has been found but we are still yet to see if it manages to exceed the local high at the 0.618 Fib level. The primary scenario is one in which we are seeing an ABC correction of a higher degree and so far this has played out. The downfall below the 0.5 Fibonacci level has confirmed the previously assumed ABC to the upside which is the B wave from the higher degree count. This is why from here we would be expecting the continuation to the downside, but that might not come as expected. The C wave which was projected to the downside should have been developing a five-wave impulse but has instead made a three-wave decrease followed by a recovery. Now if the price continues increasing this count might get invalidated but this would potentially still be the part of the correctional count which is set to push the price lower. XRP/USD The price of Ripple has been increasing and came up by 13.87% from its yesterday’s low at $0.2714 to $0.309 where it is now being traded. On the 4-hour chart, you can see that the price broke out from the descending triangle on the upside after the third interaction with the horizontal support level was made. As the price found support there we have seen a bounce that led the price for a breakout and a higher high was made compared to the previous local one. This could be the start of the 5th wave from the five-wave impulse that started in December last year after the price made the end of the significant downside move. The price hasn’t made it inside the territory of the 1st wave which makes this scenario valid and now if we are seeing the development of the 5th wave it is set to push the price of Ripple higher then on the 7th of January where the ending point of the 3rd wave is. FXOpen Blog