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Daily Technical Analysis from ACFX 09/02/2013 Daily Technical Analysis for EURUSD as at 2nd September 2013 DAILY OVERVIEW Trend : Short Ambush Zone : - Target 1 : - Target 2 : - Stop : - Comments EURUSD is this morning trading lower from the open after Fridays down day. Friday EURUSD continued to trade lower as it breached the previous pivot swing low. This breach effectively changes the trend from up to down. The price action is now trading under both the averages and trend line support. We are monitoring a potential negative cross of the averages which will confirm the new down trend. However the weekly time does continue to point up which could indicate that this change in the trend on the daily trend is nothing more than a strong corrective move. In terms of the bigger picture the swing bias has changed to negative. The following factors are confirming or reinforcing this market bias: 1. The swing bias is negative.. 2. The price action has breached trend line support. 3. The price action has broken beneath the averages. 4. The RSI is showing signs of negative divergence. Alternative counter trend bullish factors: 1. The weekly time frame is in gear with the daily time frame. 2. The averages have crossed positively. Scenario 1 As the dominant daily trend is down retracements into resistance could be viewed as selling opportunities. Scenario 2 Alternatively as EURUSD is extended from the averages and therefore there is a possibility of a corrective up to sideways move. Daily Technical Analysis for GBPUSD as at 2nd September 2013 DAILY OVERVIEW Trend : Long Ambush Zone : - Target 1 : - Target 2 : - Stop : - Comments GBPUSD is this morning trading higher from the open after Fridays down day. GBPUSD is bouncing off the 34 period moving averages and is this morning trading above the 8 period moving averages. In terms of the bigger the swing bias is positive. The following factors are confirming or reinforcing this market bias: 1. The swing bias has turned positive. 2. The price action is bouncing off positively layered averages which could offer a buying opportunity. 3. The averages have crossed positively. 4. The RSI is confirming the move. 5. The weekly time frame is in gear with the daily time frame. 6. The price action traded through the 1.5250 resistance level. Alternative counter trend bearish factors: 1. GBPUSD is approaching Fibonacci resistance. Scenario 1 As the dominant daily trend is up retracements into support could be viewed as buying opportunities. Scenario 2 Alternatively a sustain break of the 34 period moving averages could potentially see GBPUSD trade into the direction of the prior swing low. Daily Technical Analysis for USDCHF as at 2nd September 2013 DAILY OVERVIEW Trend : Short Ambush Zone : - Target 1 : - Target 2 : - Stop : - Comments USDCHF is this morning trading higher from the open after Fridays up day Following a strong bounce off support the positivity has continued as USDCHF traded through the 34 period moving averages. It would appear that USDCHF is attempting to build a base prior to breaking higher. However on a swing bases the trend is down and a breach of the 20th August low would reconfirm this trend. In terms of the bigger picture the swing bias is negative. The following factors are confirming or reinforcing this market bias: 1. The swing bias remains negative. 2. The weekly time frame continues to have a negative bias. 3. The RSI is in gear with the move. 4. The averages are negatively layered. Alternative counter trend bullish factors: 1. The price has corrected but there is potential for an extended move past the 34 period moving averages. 2. Support is holding. Scenario 1 As the dominant daily trend is down corrective pullback could possibly offer shorting opportunities. Scenario 2 Alternatively as there has been a breach of the 34 period moving averages there is potential for a move to prior swing high. Daily Technical Analysis for USDJPY as at 2nd September 2013 DAILY OVERVIEW Trend : Short Ambush Zone : - Target 1 : - Target 2 : - Stop : - Comments USDJPY is this morning trading higher from the open after Fridays down day. This morning USDJPY is attempting to breach the upper level of the converging triangle. A successful breach followed by a move above the previous swing high would effectively change the trend from down to up. In terms of the bigger picture the swing bias is negative. The following factors are confirming or reinforcing this market bias: 1. The swing bias remains negative. 2. The moving averages have crossed negatively. 3. The price action has broken below the significant 100 level. 4. The RSI is confirming the move. 5. The price action has managed to break below the upward sloping trend line. 6. Fibonacci resistance is offering down side pressure. 7. The price action is trading below the moving averages. Alternative counter trend bullish factors: 1. The price action is attempting to print a higher low. 2. The price action is attempting to breach trend line converging triangle resistance. Scenario 1 As the dominant daily trend is down retracements into resistance could be viewed as selling opportunities Scenario 2 Alternatively this corrective move could potentially change into a full trend reversal pattern if the price action can breach the previous swing high. Daily Technical Analysis for Gold as at 2nd September 2013 DAILY OVERVIEW Trend : Long Ambush Zone : - Target 1 : - Target 2 : - Stop : - Comments Gold is this morning trading unchanged from the open after Fridays down day. This morning Gold has traded down to the 8 period moving averages which we are monitoring as a potential buying area. In terms of the bigger picture the swing bias has reversed to positive. The following factors are confirming or reinforcing this market bias: 1. The swing bias is positive. 2. The price action has printed a higher low. 3. The moving averages are layered positively. 4. The price action is trading above the averages. 5. The price action is trading above the 1322 support level. 6. The RSI is in gear with the move. Alternative counter trend bearish factors: 1. The weekly time frame continues to point down. Scenario 1 As the dominant daily trend is up corrective sideways to down movements could potentially be viewed as buying opportunities. Scenario 2 Alternatively as the price action is extended from the averages there is potential for taking counter trend shorts down to the averages. Daily Technical Analysis for Oil (WTI) as at 2nd September 2013 DAILY OVERVIEW Trend : Long Ambush Zone : - Target 1 : - Target 2 : - Stop : - Comments Oil is this morning trading lower from the open after Fridays down day. This morning Oil traded down to the 34 period moving averages where support was found. We are monitoring the potential for a further upswing. In terms of the bigger picture the swing bias is positive. The following factors are confirming or reinforcing this market bias: 1. The swing bias is positive. 2. Oil is trading above the averages. 3. The prior down spike has been reversed. 4. The averages are layered positively. 5. The price action is forming a possible corrective zigzag consolidation pattern. 6. The price action is trading above the large monthly converging triangle. Alternative counter trend bearish factors: 1. The weekly RSI diverging negatively. Scenario 1 As the dominant daily trend is up retracements to resistance areas could possibly be viewed as buying opportunities. Scenario 2 Alternatively as the price action is extended from the averages Oil may experience a down to sideways corrective pullback.
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Daily Market Outlook from ACFX 08/30/2013 Important Financial Indicators of the day CAD - 15:30 (GMT) - GDP m/m - Forecast -0.4% - Previous 0.2% Currencies ◾EUR/USD The dollar reached the highest in four weeks against a basket of its peers before data forecast to show U.S. consumer spending rose for a third month, building the case for the Federal Reserve to reduce stimulus next month. ◾The U.S. currency slipped 0.2 percent to 98.14 yen from yesterday, when it advanced 0.7 percent, the most since Aug. 22. The greenback slid 0.1 percent to $1.3248 per euro, following a 0.7 percent advance yesterday. The yen rose 0.2 percent to 130.01 per euro. ◾GBP/USD The pound strengthened the most in three weeks versus the euro as optimism Britain’s economic growth is gathering pace boosted demand for the nation’s assets. ◾The pound strengthened 0.7 percent to 85.36 pence per euro at 4:29 p.m. London time, the biggest gain since Aug. 7. It advanced 0.3 percent yesterday after sliding to 86.52 pence, the weakest level since Aug. 7. The U.K. currency declined 0.2 percent to $1.5494. ◾USD/CAD Canada’s dollar fell to its lowest this week before a report tomorrow that may show the nation’s economy shrank in June the most since 2009, while a gain in U.S. growth boosted the case for that country to slow stimulus. ◾The loonie, as Canada’s currency is nicknamed for the image of the aquatic bird on the C$1 coin, depreciated 0.4 percent to C$1.0532 per U.S. dollar at 5 p.m. in Toronto. It touched C$1.0541, the weakest level since Aug. 23, and has lost 2.4 percent in August. One loonie buys 94.95 U.S. cents. Commodities ◾Oil West Texas Intermediate crude fell for a second day after U.K. lawmakers rejected a motion for military action against Syria, reducing the prospect of an imminent strike and easing concern that unrest will disrupt Middle East oil supplies. ◾WTI for October delivery dropped as much as $2.05 to $106.75 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange and was at $107.64 at 2:40 p.m. Sydney time. The contract lost 1.2 percent to $108.80 yesterday, declining from the highest close since May 2011. Prices are up 2.5 percent in August, poised for a third monthly gain. ◾Brent for October settlement decreased as much as $1.53, or 1.3 percent, to $113.63 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. The European benchmark crude was at a premium of $6.69 to WTI, from $6.36 yesterday. ◾Gold swung between gains and losses as better-than-expected U.S. data backed the case for the Federal Reserve to cut stimulus, while the U.S. may proceed with a strike against Syria even after U.K. lawmakers rejected action ◾Bullion for immediate delivery gained and lost as least 0.3 percent, before trading 0.1 percent t higher at $1,409.74 an ounce at 11:56 a.m. in Singapore. Prices are heading for a second monthly advance in the best run since September. Gold for December delivery dropped 0.3 percent to $1,409.40 an ounce on the Comex, paring a fourth weekly gain. Equities ◾Asian stocks swung between gains and losses, with energy producers leading declines as the price of oil fell after the U.K parliament voted against military strikes on Syria. Japanese utilities rose. ◾The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose less than 0.1 percent to 129.85 as of 1:13 p.m. in Tokyo, having swung between gains of as much as 0.5 percent and losses of 0.1 percent. The gauge is down 1.2 percent this week, a second week of losses, while it has dropped 1.8 percent this month. ◾U.S stocks rose, sending the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index higher for a second day, as data showed the economy expanded at a faster pace in the second quarter and concerns over Syria eased. ◾The S&P 500 rose 0.2 percent to 1,638.17 at 4 p.m. in New York, paring an earlier advance of as much as 0.7 percent. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 16.44 points, or 0.1 percent, to 14,840.95.
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Daily Technical Analysis from ACFX 08/30/2013 Daily Technical Analysis for EURUSD as at 30th August 2013 DAILY OVERVIEW Trend : Long Ambush Zone : - Target 1 : - Target 2 : - Stop : - Comments EURUSD is this morning trading lower from the open after yesterdays down day. Yesterday EURUSD continued to trade lower as it broke through the 34 period moving averages and trend line support. If the price action can breach the prior swing low then the swing bias will effectively change to down. In terms of the bigger picture the swing bias is positive. The following factors are confirming or reinforcing this market bias: 1. The swing bias is positive. 2. The price action has breached trend line resistance. 3. The weekly time frame is in gear with the daily time frame. 4. The averages have crossed positively. Alternative counter trend bullish factors: 1. The price action has broken beneath the averages. 2. The RSI is showing signs of negative divergence. Scenario 1 As the dominant daily trend is up retracements into support could be viewed as buying opportunities Scenario 2 Alternatively as EURUSD has breached the 34 period moving averages there is potential for an extended move to the previous swing low. Daily Technical Analysis for GBPUSD as at 30th August 2013 DAILY OVERVIEW Trend : Long Ambush Zone : - Target 1 : - Target 2 : - Stop : - Comments GBPUSD is this morning trading higher from the open after yesterdays down day. GBPUSD continues to find support at the 34 period moving averages. As the swing bias remains positive we are monitoring this pullbacks to the averages acting as a potential buying area. However there is possibility for a move to the previous swing low. In terms of the bigger the swing bias is positive. The following factors are confirming or reinforcing this market bias: 1. The swing bias has turned positive. 2. The price action is retracing to the positively layered averages which could offer a buying opportunity. 3. The averages have crossed positively. 4. The RSI is confirming the move. 5. The weekly time frame is in gear with the daily time frame. 6. The price action traded through the 1.5250 resistance level. Alternative counter trend bearish factors: 1. GBPUSD has broken beneath the 8 period moving averages. Scenario 1 As the dominant daily trend is up retracements into support could be viewed as buying opportunities with the next area of interest being the 34 period moving averages. Scenario 2 Alternatively a sustain break of the 34 period moving averages could potentially see GBPUSD trade into the direction of the prior swing low. Daily Technical Analysis for USDCHF as at 30th August 2013 DAILY OVERVIEW Trend : Short Ambush Zone : - Target 1 : - Target 2 : - Stop : - Comments USDCHF is this morning trading higher from the open after yesterdays up day Following a strong bounce off support the positivity has continued as USDCHF traded through the 34 period moving averages. It would appear that USDCHF is attempting to build a base prior to breaking higher. However on a swing bases the trend is down and a breach of the 20th August low would reconfirm this trend. In terms of the bigger picture the swing bias is negative. The following factors are confirming or reinforcing this market bias: 1. The swing bias remains negative. 2. The weekly time frame continues to have a negative bias. 3. The RSI is in gear with the move. 4. The averages are negatively layered. Alternative counter trend bullish factors: 1. The price has corrected but there is potential for an extended move past the 34 period moving averages. 2. Support is holding. Scenario 1 As the dominant daily trend is down corrective pullback could possibly offer shorting opportunities. Scenario 2 Alternatively as there has been a breach of the 34 period moving averages there is potential for a move to prior swing high. Daily Technical Analysis for USDJPY as at 30th August 2013 DAILY OVERVIEW Trend : Short Ambush Zone : - Target 1 : - Target 2 : - Stop : - Comments USDJPY is this morning trading lower from the open after yesterdays up day. Following USDJPY reversal we are monitoring the price action to see if there will be a break down from the 34 period moving averages and trend line resistance. In terms of the bigger picture the swing bias is negative. The following factors are confirming or reinforcing this market bias: 1. The swing bias remains negative. 2. The moving averages have crossed negatively. 3. The price action has broken below the significant 100 level. 4. The RSI is confirming the move. 5. The price action has managed to break below the upward sloping trend line. 6. Fibonacci resistance is offering down side pressure. 7. The price action is trading below the moving averages. Alternative counter trend bullish factors: 1. The price action is attempting to print a higher low. Scenario 1 As the dominant daily trend is down retracements into resistance could be viewed as selling opportunities Scenario 2 Alternatively this corrective move could potentially change into a full trend reversal pattern if the price action can breach the previous swing high. Daily Technical Analysis for Gold as at 30th August 2013 DAILY OVERVIEW Trend : Long Ambush Zone : - Target 1 : - Target 2 : - Stop : - Comments Gold is this morning trading lower from the open after yesterdays down day. This morning Gold has traded down to the 8 period moving averages which we are monitoring as a potential buying area. In terms of the bigger picture the swing bias has reversed to positive. The following factors are confirming or reinforcing this market bias: 1. The swing bias is positive. 2. The price action has printed a higher low. 3. The moving averages are layered positively. 4. The price action is trading above the averages. 5. The price action is trading above the 1322 support level. 6. The RSI is in gear with the move. Alternative counter trend bearish factors: 1. The weekly time frame continues to point down. Scenario 1 As the dominant daily trend is up corrective sideways to down movements could potentially be viewed as buying opportunities. Scenario 2 Alternatively as the price action is extended from the averages there is potential for taking counter trend shorts down to the averages. Daily Technical Analysis for Oil (WTI) as at 30th August 2013 DAILY OVERVIEW Trend : Long Ambush Zone : - Target 1 : - Target 2 : - Stop : - Comments Oil is this morning trading lower from the open after yesterdays down day. This morning Oil traded down to the 8 period moving averages where support was found. We are monitoring the potential for a further upswing. In terms of the bigger picture the swing bias is positive. The following factors are confirming or reinforcing this market bias: 1. The swing bias is positive. 2. Oil is trading above the averages. 3. The prior down spike has been reversed. 4. The averages are layered positively. 5. The price action is forming a possible corrective zigzag consolidation pattern. 6. The price action is trading above the large monthly converging triangle. 7. The weekly RSI diverging positively. Alternative counter trend bearish factors: 1. The weekly RSI diverging negatively. Scenario 1 As the dominant daily trend is up retracements to resistance areas could possibly be viewed as buying opportunities. Scenario 2 Alternatively as the price action is extended from the averages Oil may experience a down to sideways corrective pullback.
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Daily Market Outlook from ACFX 08/29/2013 Important Financial Indicators of the day USD - 15:30 (GMT) - Prelim GDP q/q - Forecast 2.2% - Previous1.7% USD - 15:30 (GMT) - Unemployment Claims - Forecast 330K - Previous336K Currencies ◾EUR/USD The dollar remained higher against the euro following its biggest gain in a week before U.S. data that may show the economy grew faster than initially estimated, adding to the case for the Federal Reserve to slow stimulus. ◾The U.S. currency was little changed at $1.3325 per euro as of 2:06 p.m. in Tokyo after strengthening 0.4 percent yesterday, the most since Aug. 21. The yen was little changed at 97.66 per dollar and 130.14 per euro. ◾USD/INR The rupee slumped 3.9 percent to 68.8450 per dollar in Mumbai yesterday, the biggest drop since 1993, according to prices from local banks compiled by Bloomberg. In an effort to stem the currency’s decline by reducing spot demand, the central bank said yesterday it will sell dollars to the nation’s biggest state-run crude oil importers through a swap facility. ◾India needs to immediately use its foreign exchange reserves to arrest the rupee’s record plunge as the weakening currency has the potential to send the economy into a “nosedive,†billionaire Adi India needs to immediately use its foreign exchange reserves to arrest the rupee’s record plunge as the weakening currency has the potential to send the economy into a “nosedive,†billionaire Adi Godrej said. rej said. ◾Godrej’s remarks come after Prime Minister Manmohan Singh’s government on Aug. 26 won approval from the lower house of parliament for a landmark bill that expands the world’s biggest food program. The plan involves spending about 1.25 trillion rupees ($18 billion) in subsidies each year, potentially worsening a fiscal gap. ◾GBP/USD The pound strengthened from the lowest level in three weeks against the euro as Bank of England Governor Mark Carney failed to convince investors that the central bank will keep interest rates at an all-time low. ◾The pound strengthened 0.4 percent to 85.81 pence per euro at 4:24 p.m. London time, after depreciating 0.4 percent to 86.52 pence, the weakest level since Aug. 7. Sterling fell 0.1 percent to $1.5527 after dropping to $1.5429, the lowest since Aug. 14. ◾USD/CAD The Canadian currency weakened as speculation America and its allies will take military action against Syria boosted the U.S. dollar’s appeal as a haven. ◾The loonie, nicknamed for the image of the aquatic bird on the C$1 coin, depreciated as much as 0.4 percent, the most compared with closing prices since Aug. 22, to C$1.0511 per U.S. dollar before trading at C$1.0487 at 5 p.m. in Toronto, down 0.1 percent. One Canadian dollar buys 95.36 U.S. cents. Commodities ◾Oil West Texas Intermediate oil fell from the highest settlement in more than two years, dropping for the first time in three days. U.S. crude stockpiles increased by 2.99 million barrels last week, a government report showed. ◾WTI for October delivery fell as much as 99 cents to $109.11 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange and was at $109.46 at 11:37 a.m. Singapore time. The volume of all futures traded was about 20 percent below the 100-day average. The contract climbed 1 percent to $110.10 yesterday, the highest close since May 3, 2011. ◾Brent for October settlement slid as much as 91 cents, or 0.8 percent, to $115.70 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange after closing yesterday at the highest since Feb. 19. The European benchmark crude was at a premium of $6.35 to WTI futures, down from $6.51 yesterday. ◾Gold retreated from a three-month high spurred by tensions over Syria as U.S. economic data may reinforce the case for the Federal Reserve to slow stimulus and a technical indicator showed that prices were set to decline. ◾Bullion for immediate delivery lost as much as 0.7 percent to $1,407.95 an ounce was at $1,409.08 at 12:25 p.m. in Singapore, dropping for the first time in six days. Prices rallied to $1,433.83 yesterday, the highest level since May 14, on concern that the U.S. and its allies will launch a military strike against Syria in retaliation for its alleged use of chemical weapons. Equities ◾Asian stocks Asia’s benchmark stock index rose from a two-month low as energy shares increased after concern military action against Syria will disrupt global oil supplies fueled gains in crude prices this week. ◾The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 0.7 percent to 130.04 as of 2:23 p.m. in Tokyo, with eight of the 10 industry groups gaining on the gauge, which yesterday fell to the lowest close since June 27. The measure lost 2.4 percent this month through yesterday, wiping out all its 2013 increases. Investors also are awaiting a report on U.S. economic growth that may give signs on when the Federal Reserve will start paring stimulus. ◾European stocks dropped to the lowest level in six weeks as concern grew that the U.S. will take military action against Syria. ◾The Stoxx Europe 600 Index lost 0.4 percent to 297.89 at the close of trading, its lowest level since July 17. The gauge fell as much as 1.1 percent in intraday trading. It has still advanced 8.1 percent since this year’s low on June 24 as the European Central Bank pledged to keep interest rates low. ◾U.S stocks rose, with the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index rebounding from an eight-week low, as energy shares rallied and investors watched developments on Syria. ◾The S&P 500 rose 0.3 percent to 1,634.96 at 4 p.m. in New York. The index closed just short of its average level for the past 100 days of 1,638.27, after slipping below it yesterday for the first time since June. The Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 48.38 points, or 0.3 percent, to 14,824.51
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Daily Technical Analysis from ACFX 08/29/2013 Daily Technical Analysis for EURUSD as at 29th August 2013 DAILY OVERVIEW Trend : Long Ambush Zone : - Target 1 : - Target 2 : - Stop : - Comments EURUSD is this morning trading lower from the open after yesterdays down day. This morning EURUSD broke down from the proceeding tight range is now touching the 34 period moving averages and trend line support. We continue to monitor the price action to see if the 34 period moving average will act as support. In terms of the bigger picture the swing bias has changed to positive. The following factors are confirming or reinforcing this market bias: 1. The swing bias is positive. 2. The price action has breached trend line resistance. 3. The weekly time frame is in gear with the daily time frame. 4. The averages have crossed positively. 5. The price action has broken above the 8 period moving averages. Alternative counter trend bullish factors: 1. The averages are becoming extended which could lead to corrective down to sideways price action. 2. The RSI is confirming is showing signs of negative divergence. Scenario 1 As the dominant daily trend is up retracements into support could be viewed as buying opportunities Scenario 2 Alternatively if EURUSD can breach the 34 period moving averages there is potential for an extended move to the previous swing low. Daily Technical Analysis for GBPUSD as at 29th August 2013 DAILY OVERVIEW Trend : Long Ambush Zone : - Target 1 : - Target 2 : - Stop : - Comments GBPUSD is this morning trading lower from the open after yesterdays down day. Yesterday GBPUSD broke lower only to find good support at the 3 period moving averages and in the process a bullish hammer candle was printed. As the swing bias remains positive we are monitoring this pullbacks to the averages acting as a potential buying area. However there is potential for a move to the previous swing low. In terms of the bigger the swing bias is positive. The following factors are confirming or reinforcing this market bias: 1. The swing bias has turned positive. 2. The price action is retracing to the positively layered averages which could offer a buying opportunity. 3. The averages have crossed positively. 4. The RSI is confirming the move. 5. The weekly time frame is in gear with the daily time frame. 6. The price action traded through the 1.5250 resistance level. Alternative counter trend bearish factors: 1. The moving averages are somewhat extended. Scenario 1 As the dominant daily trend is up retracements into support could be viewed as buying opportunities with the next area of interest being the 34 period moving averages. Scenario 2 Alternatively a sustain break of the 34 period moving averages could potentially see GBPUSD trade into the direction of the prior swing low. Daily Technical Analysis for USDCHF as at 29th August 2013 DAILY OVERVIEW Trend : Short Ambush Zone : - Target 1 : - Target 2 : - Stop : - Comments USDCHF is this morning trading higher from the open after yesterdays up day Following yesterday’s strong bounce off support the positivity has continued into the European session as USDCHF trades towards the 34 period moving averages. It would appear that USDCHF is attempting to build a base prior to breaking higher. However on a swing bases the trend is down and a breach of the 20th August low would reconfirm this trend. In terms of the bigger picture the swing bias is negative. The following factors are confirming or reinforcing this market bias: 1. The swing bias remains negative. 2. The weekly time frame continues to have a negative bias. 3. The RSI is in gear with the move. 4. The averages are negatively layered. Alternative counter trend bullish factors: 1. The price has corrected but there is potential for an extended move past the 34 period moving averages. 2. Support is holding. Scenario 1 As the dominant daily trend is down corrective pullback could possibly offer shorting opportunities. Scenario 2 Alternatively if the price action cannot breach the 20th August low there is potential for a pullback to the 34 period moving averages. Daily Technical Analysis for USDJPY as at 29th August 2013 DAILY OVERVIEW Trend : Short Ambush Zone : - Target 1 : - Target 2 : - Stop : - Comments USDJPY is this morning trading higher from the open after yesterdays up day. Yesterday USDJPY reversed off the lows and closed higher. This positive movement has continued into the European session with the price action moving back into the averages. Although Fibonacci resistance is a hurdle that needs to be overcome a move above the previous swing high will effectively change the trend to long. Furthermore with the development of what can be described as a large converging triangle, an upside break of this triangle could see USDJPY breaching the 100 level. In terms of the bigger picture the swing bias is negative. The following factors are confirming or reinforcing this market bias: 1. The swing bias remains negative. 2. The moving averages have crossed negatively. 3. The price action has broken below the significant 100 level. 4. The RSI is confirming the move. 5. The price action has managed to break below the upward sloping trend line. 6. Fibonacci resistance is offering down side pressure. 7. The price action is trading below the moving averages. Alternative counter trend bullish factors: 1. The price action is attempting to print a higher low. Scenario 1 As the dominant daily trend is down retracements into resistance could be viewed as selling opportunities Scenario 2 Alternatively this corrective move could potentially change into a full trend reversal pattern if the price action can breach the previous swing high. Daily Technical Analysis for Gold as at 29th August 2013 DAILY OVERVIEW Trend : Long Ambush Zone : - Target 1 : - Target 2 : - Stop : - Comments Gold is this morning trading lower from the open after yesterdays up day. Following the printing of a higher high and breach the previous swing high Gold is now effectively trending positively. However following yesterday’s reversal day where a bearish shooting star candle was printed we are monitoring pullbacks to the 8 period moving averages as buying opportunities. In terms of the bigger picture the swing bias has reversed to positive. The following factors are confirming or reinforcing this market bias: 1. The swing bias is positive. 2. The price action has printed a higher low. 3. The moving averages are layered positively. 4. The price action is trading above the averages. 5. The price action is trading above the 1322 support level. 6. The RSI is in gear with the move. Alternative counter trend bearish factors: 1. The weekly time frame continues to point down. 2. The price action is extended from the averages. Scenario 1 As the dominant daily trend is up corrective sideways to down movements could potentially be viewed as buying opportunities. Scenario 2 Alternatively as the price action is extended from the averages there is potential for taking counter trend shorts down to the averages. Daily Technical Analysis for Oil (WTI) as at 29th August 2013 DAILY OVERVIEW Trend : Long Ambush Zone : - Target 1 : - Target 2 : - Stop : - Comments Oil is this morning trading lower from the open after yesterdays down day. Following Tuesday’s powerful break out Oil yesterday experienced a reversal as a bearish shooting star candle was printed. As the price action continues to be extended from the averages it is not surprising that a corrective down to sideways pullback is happening. As long as the price action can hold above the 21st August low then the trend stays long. In terms of the bigger picture the swing bias is positive. The following factors are confirming or reinforcing this market bias: 1. The swing bias is positive. 2. Oil is trading above the averages. 3. The prior down spike has been reversed. 4. The averages are layered positively. 5. The price action is forming a possible corrective zigzag consolidation pattern. 6. The price action is trading above the large monthly converging triangle. 7. The weekly RSI diverging positively. Alternative counter trend bearish factors: 1. The price action is extended from the averages. Scenario 1 As the dominant daily trend is up retracements to resistance areas could possibly be viewed as buying opportunities. Scenario 2 Alternatively as the price action is extended from the averages Oil may experience a down to sideways corrective pullback.
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Daily Market Outlook from ACFX 08/28/2013 Important Financial Indicators of the day GBP - 14:45 (GMT) - BOE Gov Carney Speaks USD - 17:00 (GMT) - Pending Home Sales m/m - Forecast 0.2% - Previous -0.4% Currencies ◾USD/JPY The yen held its biggest gains in 2 1/2 months against the dollar and euro as traders sought haven investments amid escalating tension in Syria. ◾The yen was little changed at 97.06 per dollar at 1:55 p.m. in Tokyo from yesterday when it rallied 1.5 percent, the most since June 11. It touched 96.82, the strongest since Aug. 12. Japan’s currency gained 0.1 percent to 129.83 per euro after rising 1.3 percent yesterday, the most since June 14. ◾USD/CAD Canada’s dollar advanced from almost a seven-week low after crude oil, the nation’s biggest export, climbed to the highest level since July on speculation tension in Syria will disrupt Middle East supplies. ◾The loonie, nicknamed for the image of the aquatic bird on the C$1 coin, appreciated 0.3 percent to C$1.0474 per U.S. dollar at 5 p.m. in Toronto after touching 1.0472, the strongest since Aug. 22. It lost as much as 0.4 percent earlier to C$1.0540 after touching C$1.0568 on Aug. 23, the weakest since July 9. One Canadian dollar buys 95.48 U.S. cents. Commodities ◾Oil West Texas Intermediate crude surged to the highest price since May 2011 on concern that conflict in Syria may spread and threaten oil supplies from the Middle East. ◾WTI for October delivery rose as much as $3.11 to $112.12 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange, the highest intraday price since May 3, 2011. It was at $112.03 at 2:47 p.m. Sydney time. The volume of all futures traded was about 340 percent above the 100-day average. The contract increased $3.09 to $109.01 yesterday, the highest close since Feb. 24 last year. Prices are up 22 percent in 2013. ◾Brent for October settlement advanced as much as $2.87, or 2.5 percent, to $117.23 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange after settling yesterday at the highest since Feb. 25. The European benchmark crude was at a premium of $5.07 to WTI from $5.35 yesterday. ◾Gold traded near the highest level since May after a four-day rally as speculation that the U.S. may lead military strikes against Syria within days spurred investors’ demand for a haven. Silver and platinum advanced. ◾Bullion for immediate delivery rose as much as 0.3 percent to $1,419.55 an ounce and was at $1,417.17 at 11:38 a.m. in Singapore. Prices climbed to $1,423.95 yesterday, the highest since May 15. Gold for December delivery declined 0.2 percent to $1,417 an ounce on the Comex after rising 2 percent yesterday. Equities ◾Asian stocks slumped, with the regional benchmark index heading for the lowest close in two months, on concern the U.S. will take military action against Syria for using chemical weapons. ◾The MSCI Asia Pacific Index dropped 1.9 percent to 128.72 as of 12:51 p.m. in Tokyo, heading for the lowest close since June 27 as more than eight shares fell for each that rose. The gauge is on course for its eighth decline in 10 days as the prospect of the Federal Reserve paring stimulus as soon as next month spurs investors to shun riskier assets. ◾European stocks slid the most in nine weeks after U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry said the Obama administration will hold Syria accountable for using chemical weapons against its own people. ◾The Stoxx 600 slid 1.8 percent to 299.01 at the close in London. The equity benchmark has still rallied 8.5 percent from this year’s low on June 24 as the European Central Bank said that interest rates will remain low for an extended period.
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Daily Technical Analysis from ACFX 08/28/2013 Daily Technical Analysis for EURUSD as at 28th August 2013 DAILY OVERVIEW Trend : Long Ambush Zone : - Target 1 : - Target 2 : - Stop : - Comments EURUSD is this morning trading lower from the open after yesterdays up day. The price action this morning has opened and is trading within a 3 day range. The breach of the prior swing high continues to give EURUSD a positive bias. We continue to monitor the price action to see if the 8 period moving average will act as support. In terms of the bigger picture the swing bias has changed to positive. The following factors are confirming or reinforcing this market bias: 1. The swing bias is positive. 2. The price action has breached trend line resistance. 3. The weekly time frame is in gear with the daily time frame. 4. The averages have crossed positively. 5. The price action has broken above the 8 period moving averages. Alternative counter trend bullish factors: 1. The averages are becoming extended which could lead to corrective down to sideways price action. 2. The RSI is confirming is showing signs of negative divergence. Scenario 1 As the dominant daily trend is up retracements into support could be viewed as buying opportunities Scenario 2 Alternatively if EURUSD can breach the 8 period moving averages the next target is the 34 period moving averages. Daily Technical Analysis for GBPUSD as at 28th August 2013 DAILY OVERVIEW Trend : Long Ambush Zone : - Target 1 : - Target 2 : - Stop : - Comments GBPUSD is this morning trading lower from the open after yesterdays down day. GBPUSD continues to trade under the 8 period moving averages As the swing bias remains positive we are monitoring this pullbacks to the averages acting as a potential buying area. However there is potential for a move to the 34 period moving averages. In terms of the bigger the swing bias is positive. The following factors are confirming or reinforcing this market bias: 1. The swing bias has turned positive. 2. The price action is retracing to the positively layered averages which could offer a buying opportunity. 3. The averages have crossed positively. 4. The RSI is confirming the move. 5. The weekly time frame is in gear with the daily time frame. 6. The price action traded through the 1.5250 resistance level. Alternative counter trend bearish factors: 1. The moving averages are somewhat extended. Scenario 1 As the dominant daily trend is up retracements into support could be viewed as buying opportunities with the initial area of interest being the 8 period moving averages. Scenario 2 Alternatively a sustain break of the 8 period moving averages could potentially see GBPUSD trade into the direction of the 34 period moving averages. Daily Technical Analysis for USDCHF as at 28th August 2013 DAILY OVERVIEW Trend : Short Ambush Zone : - Target 1 : - Target 2 : - Stop : - Comments USDCHF is this morning trading higher from the open after yesterdays down day Yesterday USDCHF broke down from the 8 period moving averages and broke beneath 0.9200 level and trend line support. We are monitoring a potential breach of the 20th August low. In terms of the bigger picture the swing bias is negative. The following factors are confirming or reinforcing this market bias: 1. The swing bias remains negative. 2. The weekly time frame continues to have a negative bias. 3. The RSI is in gear with the move. 4. The averages are negatively layered. 5. The price action is trading beneath the averages. Alternative counter trend bullish factors: 1. The price action is becoming extended from the averages. Scenario 1 As the dominant daily trend is down corrective pullback could possibly offer shorting opportunities. Scenario 2 Alternatively if the price action cannot breach the 20th August low there is potential for a pullback to the 8 period moving averages. Daily Technical Analysis for USDJPY as at 28th August 2013 DAILY OVERVIEW Trend : Short Ambush Zone : - Target 1 : - Target 2 : - Stop : - Comments USDJPY is this morning trading higher from the open after yesterdays down day. Yesterday USDJPY down from the averages following what appears to be a corrective pull back. This move is in line with a rejection of Fibonacci resistance. In terms of the bigger picture the swing bias is negative. The following factors are confirming or reinforcing this market bias: 1. The swing bias remains negative. 2. The moving averages have crossed negatively. 3. The price action has broken below the significant 100 level. 4. The RSI is confirming the move. 5. The price action has managed to break below the upward sloping trend line. 6. Fibonacci resistance is offering down side pressure. 7. The price action is trading below the moving averages. Alternative counter trend bullish factors: 1. The price action is extended from the averages. Scenario 1 As the dominant daily trend is down retracements into resistance could be viewed as selling opportunities Scenario 2 Alternatively as the price action is extended from the averages we may see a corrective up to sideways pullback. Daily Technical Analysis for Gold as at 28th August 2013 DAILY OVERVIEW Trend : Long Ambush Zone : - Target 1 : - Target 2 : - Stop : - Comments Gold is this morning trading higher from the open after yesterdays up day. Following the printing of a higher high and breach the previous swing high Gold is now effectively trending positively. We continue monitor pullbacks to the 8 period moving averages as buying opportunities. In terms of the bigger picture the swing bias has reversed to positive. The following factors are confirming or reinforcing this market bias: 1. The swing bias is positive. 2. The price action has printed a higher low. 3. The moving averages are layered positively. 4. The price action is trading above the averages. 5. The price action is trading above the 1322 support level. 6. The RSI is in gear with the move. Alternative counter trend bearish factors: 1. The weekly time frame continues to point down. 2. The price action is extended from the averages. Scenario 1 As the dominant daily trend is up corrective sideways to down movements could potentially be viewed as buying opportunities. Scenario 2 Alternatively as the price action is extended from the averages there is potential for taking counter trend shorts down to the averages. Daily Technical Analysis for Oil (WTI) as at 28th August 2013 DAILY OVERVIEW Trend : Short Ambush Zone : - Target 1 : - Target 2 : - Stop : - Comments Oil is this morning trading higher from the open after yesterdays up day. As posted previously although Oil printed a lower low and lower high bearish combination the broader analysis of the price pattern that was formed is that price action is potentially printing a bullish flag consolidation. Following the 21st August potential higher low being printed Oil yesterday did reverse to the upside on a swing bases by trading above the previous pivot high. This upward momentum has continued this morning. In terms of the bigger picture the swing bias has changed to positive. The following factors are confirming or reinforcing this market bias: 1. The swing bias is positive. 2. Oil is trading above the averages. 3. The prior down spike has been reversed. 4. The averages are layered positively. 5. The price action is forming a possible corrective zigzag consolidation pattern. 6. The price action is trading above the large monthly converging triangle. 7. The weekly RSI diverging positively. Alternative counter trend bearish factors: 1. The price action is extended from the averages. Scenario 1 As the dominant daily trend is up retracements to resistance areas could possibly be viewed as buying opportunities. Scenario 2 Alternatively as the price action is extended from the averages Oil may experience a down to sideways corrective pullback.
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Daily Market Outlook from ACFX 08/27/2013 Important Financial Indicators of the day USD - 15:30 (GMT) - Core Durable Good Orders m/m - Forecast 0.6% - Previous -0.1% Currencies ◾EUR/USD The dollar maintained a weekly decline against the euro as investors speculated over whether the U.S. economy is strong enough to support a reduction in Federal Reserve stimulus next month. ◾The dollar was little changed at $1.3381 per euro as of 2:04 p.m. in Tokyo from Aug. 23, when it completed a 0.4 percent weekly loss. It traded at 98.60 yen from 98.72 at the end of last week. The euro was at 131.94 yen, after reaching 132.43 on Aug. 23, the most since July 25. ◾AUD/USD Australian government bonds rose along with the currency, as investors weigh the U.S. central bank’s timing for tapering stimulus that has supported higher-yielding assets globally. ◾Australia’s 10-year government bond yield dropped four basis points, or 0.04 percentage point, to 4.01 percent as of 2:13 p.m. in Sydney. The rate on sovereign debt due in two years fell one basis point to 2.51 percent. The nation’s currency added 0.1 percent to 90.40 U.S. cents after gaining 0.7 percent in the two days ended Aug. 23. ◾USD/CAD Canada’s dollar lost the most in more than two months as wholesale and retail sales fell and consumer-price gains stayed below the central bank’s inflation target for a 15th month, fueling concern the economy is slowing. ◾Canada’s currency depreciated 1.5 percent to C$1.0496 per U.S. dollar this week in Toronto, the biggest drop since the five days ended June 21. It touched C$1.0568 yesterday, the weakest since July 9. One Canadian dollar buys 95.27 U.S. cents. Commodities ◾Oil West Texas Intermediate crude rose for a third day as speculation the Federal Reserve will maintain economic stimulus boosted the demand outlook in the world’s biggest oil user. Brent’s premium to WTI narrowed. ◾WTI for October delivery climbed as much as 95 cents to $107.37 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange and was at $107.02 at 1:57 p.m. Sydney time. The contract climbed 1.3 percent to $106.42 on Aug. 23, the biggest gain since Aug. 9. ◾Brent for October settlement advanced 26 cents to $111.30 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. The European benchmark crude was at a premium of $4.27 to WTI, down from $4.62 on Aug. 23. ◾Gold swung between gains and losses after climbing to the highest level since June as investors weighed the outlook for stimulus in the U.S., with a slump in new-home sales boosting the case for sustained debt-buying. ◾Bullion for immediate delivery rose as much as 0.7 percent to $1,407.18 an ounce, the highest since June 7, before trading 0.2 percent lower at $1,395.64 at 11:23 a.m. in Singapore. Gold for December delivery rose as much as 0.8 percent to $1,407 an ounce on the Comex, also the highest since June 7. Equities ◾Asian stocks rose for a second day after a slump in U.S. home sales eased speculation the Federal Reserve will reduce economic stimulus next month. ◾The MSCI Asia Pacific Index advanced 0.3 percent to 131.80 as of 1:42 p.m. in Tokyo, with all of the 10 industry groups on the gauge rising.
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Daily Technical Analysis from ACFX 08/27/2013 Daily Technical Analysis for EURUSD as at 27th August 2013 DAILY OVERVIEW Trend : Long Ambush Zone : - Target 1 : - Target 2 : - Stop : - Comments EURUSD is this morning trading lower from the open after yesterdays down day. The price action this morning has opened and is trading within a 2 day range. The breach of the prior swing high continues to give EURUSD a positive bias. We continue to monitor the price action to see if the 8 period moving average will act as support. In terms of the bigger picture the swing bias has changed to positive. The following factors are confirming or reinforcing this market bias: 1. The swing bias is positive. 2. The price action has breached trend line resistance. 3. The weekly time frame is in gear with the daily time frame. 4. The averages have crossed positively. 5. The price action has broken above the 8 period moving averages. Alternative counter trend bullish factors: 1. The averages are becoming extended which could lead to corrective down to sideways price action. 2. The RSI is confirming is showing signs of negative divergence. Scenario 1 As the dominant daily trend is up retracements into support could be viewed as buying opportunities Scenario 2 Alternatively if EURUSD can breach the 8 period moving averages the next target is the 34 period moving averages. Daily Technical Analysis for GBPUSD as at 27th August 2013 DAILY OVERVIEW Trend : Long Ambush Zone : - Target 1 : - Target 2 : - Stop : - Comments GBPUSD is this morning trading lower from the open after yesterdays up day. GBPUSD continues to trade under the 8 period moving averages As the swing bias remains positive we are monitoring this pullbacks to the averages acting as a potential buying area. However there is potential for a move to the 34 period moving averages. In terms of the bigger the swing bias is positive. The following factors are confirming or reinforcing this market bias: 1. The swing bias has turned positive. 2. The price action is retracing to the positively layered averages which could offer a buying opportunity. 3. The averages have crossed positively. 4. The RSI is confirming the move. 5. The weekly time frame is in gear with the daily time frame. 6. The price action traded through the 1.5250 resistance level. Alternative counter trend bearish factors: 1. The moving averages are somewhat extended. Scenario 1 As the dominant daily trend is up retracements into support could be viewed as buying opportunities with the initial area of interest being the 8 period moving averages. Scenario 2 Alternatively a sustain break of the 8 period moving averages could potentially see GBPUSD trade into the direction of the 34 period moving averages. Daily Technical Analysis for USDCHF as at 27th August 2013 DAILY OVERVIEW Trend : Short Ambush Zone : - Target 1 : - Target 2 : - Stop : - Comments USDCHF is this morning trading lower from the open after yesterdays up day Following the breach of both trend line support and the 0.9200 area we have witnessed a good bounce off these levels. We are monitoring the price action to see if USDCHF can make a sustained push above the 8 period moving averages. The 8 period moving averages is also our initial area of interest where shorting opportunities may arise. In terms of the bigger picture the swing bias is negative. The following factors are confirming or reinforcing this market bias: 1. The swing bias remains negative. 2. The weekly time frame continues to have a negative bias. 3. The RSI is in gear with the move. 4. The averages are negatively layered. 5. The price action is trading beneath the averages. Alternative counter trend bullish factors: 1. The price action is becoming extended from the averages. Scenario 1 As the dominant daily trend is down corrective pullback could possibly offer shorting opportunities. Scenario 2 Alternatively if the price action can breach the 8 period moving averages then the next target is the 34 period moving averages. Daily Technical Analysis for USDJPY as at 27th August 2013 DAILY OVERVIEW Trend : Short Ambush Zone : - Target 1 : - Target 2 : - Stop : - Comments USDJPY is this morning trading lower from the open after yesterdays down day. Yesterday USDJPY experience a quite day as the price action continues to be squeezed between the 8 and 34 period moving averages. We are monitoring this move up to the Fibonacci resistance area and 34 period moving averages where we will reassess the situation and look for potential reversal patterns and resumption of the down trend. However a sustained move higher could see a higher low printed on the weekly chart with more focus being given to the long side. In terms of the bigger picture the swing bias is negative. The following factors are confirming or reinforcing this market bias: 1. The swing bias remains negative. 2. The moving averages have crossed negatively. 3. The price action has broken below the significant 100 level. 4. The RSI is confirming the move. 5. The price action has managed to break below the upward sloping trend line. 6. Fibonacci resistance is offering down side pressure. Alternative counter trend bullish factors: 1. The price action is trading above moving averages. Scenario 1 As the dominant daily trend is down retracements into resistance could be viewed as selling opportunities Scenario 2 Alternatively as the price action is trading above the 34 period moving averages there is the possibility of a corrective up move back to Fibonacci resistance. Daily Technical Analysis for Gold as at 27th August 2013 DAILY OVERVIEW Trend : Long Ambush Zone : - Target 1 : - Target 2 : - Stop : - Comments Gold is this morning trading unchanged from the open after yesterdays up day. Following the printing of a higher high and breach the previous swing high Gold is now effectively trending positively. Friday’s correction down to the 8 period moving averages was our initial area of interest where a resumption of the uptrend could happen. Gold did bounce with force from this level and printed a further higher high. In terms of the bigger picture the swing bias has reversed to positive. The following factors are confirming or reinforcing this market bias: 1. The swing bias is positive. 2. The price action has printed a higher low. 3. The moving averages are layered positively. 4. The price action is trading above the averages. 5. The price action is trading above the 1322 support level. 6. The RSI is in gear with the move. Alternative counter trend bearish factors: 1. The weekly time frame continues to point down. 2. The price action is trading within the Fibonacci resistance zone. Scenario 1 As the dominant daily trend is up corrective sideways to down movements could potentially be viewed as buying opportunities. Scenario 2 Alternatively a sustain breach of the 8 period moving averages could see Gold trade down to the 34 period moving averages. Daily Technical Analysis for Oil (WTI) as at 27th August 2013 DAILY OVERVIEW Trend : Short Ambush Zone : - Target 1 : - Target 2 : - Stop : - Comments Oil is this morning trading unchanged from the open after yesterdays down day. Following the down spike and lower low of the 8th August WTI has failed to print a higher high. Furthermore the breach of the 34 period moving averages has been followed by a lower high being printed. A move beneath the prior swing low would confirm the bearish bias however a broader analysis of the price pattern being currently formed is that price action is potentially printing a bullish flag consolidation. A failure of the flag could potentially see Oil move to the Fibonacci support area. In terms of the bigger picture the swing bias remains negative. The following factors are confirming or reinforcing this market bias: 1. The swing bias is negative. Alternative counter trend bullish factors: 1. Oil is trading above the averages. 2. The prior down spike has been reversed. 3. The averages are layered positively. 4. The price action is forming a possible corrective zigzag consolidation pattern. 5. The price action is trading above the large monthly converging triangle. 6. The weekly RSI diverging positively. Scenario 1 As the dominant daily trend is down retracements to resistance areas could possibly be viewed as selling opportunities. Scenario 2 Alternatively following the bounce off the 8th August down spike we are monitoring the possibility of a move to the 2nd August high.
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Daily Market Outlook from ACFX 08/26/2013 Important Financial Indicators of the day USD - 15:30 (GMT) - Core Durable Good Orders m/m - Forecast 0.6% - Previous -0.1% Currencies ◾EUR/USD The dollar maintained a weekly decline against the euro as investors speculated over whether the U.S. economy is strong enough to support a reduction in Federal Reserve stimulus next month. ◾The dollar was little changed at $1.3381 per euro as of 2:04 p.m. in Tokyo from Aug. 23, when it completed a 0.4 percent weekly loss. It traded at 98.60 yen from 98.72 at the end of last week. The euro was at 131.94 yen, after reaching 132.43 on Aug. 23, the most since July 25. ◾AUD/USD Australian government bonds rose along with the currency, as investors weigh the U.S. central bank’s timing for tapering stimulus that has supported higher-yielding assets globally. ◾Australia’s 10-year government bond yield dropped four basis points, or 0.04 percentage point, to 4.01 percent as of 2:13 p.m. in Sydney. The rate on sovereign debt due in two years fell one basis point to 2.51 percent. The nation’s currency added 0.1 percent to 90.40 U.S. cents after gaining 0.7 percent in the two days ended Aug. 23. ◾USD/CAD Canada’s dollar lost the most in more than two months as wholesale and retail sales fell and consumer-price gains stayed below the central bank’s inflation target for a 15th month, fueling concern the economy is slowing. ◾Canada’s currency depreciated 1.5 percent to C$1.0496 per U.S. dollar this week in Toronto, the biggest drop since the five days ended June 21. It touched C$1.0568 yesterday, the weakest since July 9. One Canadian dollar buys 95.27 U.S. cents. Commodities ◾Oil West Texas Intermediate crude rose for a third day as speculation the Federal Reserve will maintain economic stimulus boosted the demand outlook in the world’s biggest oil user. Brent’s premium to WTI narrowed. ◾WTI for October delivery climbed as much as 95 cents to $107.37 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange and was at $107.02 at 1:57 p.m. Sydney time. The contract climbed 1.3 percent to $106.42 on Aug. 23, the biggest gain since Aug. 9. ◾Brent for October settlement advanced 26 cents to $111.30 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. The European benchmark crude was at a premium of $4.27 to WTI, down from $4.62 on Aug. 23. ◾Gold swung between gains and losses after climbing to the highest level since June as investors weighed the outlook for stimulus in the U.S., with a slump in new-home sales boosting the case for sustained debt-buying. ◾Bullion for immediate delivery rose as much as 0.7 percent to $1,407.18 an ounce, the highest since June 7, before trading 0.2 percent lower at $1,395.64 at 11:23 a.m. in Singapore. Gold for December delivery rose as much as 0.8 percent to $1,407 an ounce on the Comex, also the highest since June 7. Equities ◾Asian stocks rose for a second day after a slump in U.S. home sales eased speculation the Federal Reserve will reduce economic stimulus next month. ◾The MSCI Asia Pacific Index advanced 0.3 percent to 131.80 as of 1:42 p.m. in Tokyo, with all of the 10 industry groups on the gauge rising.
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Daily Technical Analysis from ACFX 08/26/2013 Daily Technical Analysis for EURUSD as at 26th August 2013 DAILY OVERVIEW Trend : Long Ambush Zone : - Target 1 : - Target 2 : - Stop : - Comments EURUSD is this morning trading lower from the open after Fridays up day. The breach of the prior swing high continues to give EURUSD a positive bias. We continue to monitor the price action to see if the 8 period moving average will act as support. In terms of the bigger picture the swing bias has changed to positive. The following factors are confirming or reinforcing this market bias: 1. The swing bias is positive. 2. The price action has breached trend line resistance. 3. The weekly time frame is in gear with the daily time frame. 4. The averages have crossed positively. 5. The price action has broken above the 8 period moving averages. Alternative counter trend bullish factors: 1. The averages are becoming extended which could lead to corrective down to sideways price action. 2. The RSI is confirming is showing signs of negative divergence. Scenario 1 As the dominant daily trend is up retracements into support could be viewed as buying opportunities Scenario 2 Alternatively if EURUSD can breach the 8 period moving averages the next target is the 34 period moving averages. Daily Technical Analysis for GBPUSD as at 26th August 2013 DAILY OVERVIEW Trend : Long Ambush Zone : - Target 1 : - Target 2 : - Stop : - Comments GBPUSD is this morning trading unchanged from the open after Fridays down day. On Friday GBPUSD traded under the 8 period moving averages As the swing bias remains positive we are monitoring this pullbacks to the averages acting as a potential buying area. In terms of the bigger the swing bias is positive. The following factors are confirming or reinforcing this market bias: 1. The swing bias has turned positive. 2. The price action is retracing to the positively layered averages which could offer a buying opportunity. 3. The averages have crossed positively. 4. The RSI is confirming the move. 5. The weekly time frame is in gear with the daily time frame. 6. The price action traded through the 1.5250 resistance level. Alternative counter trend bearish factors: 1. The moving averages are somewhat extended. Scenario 1 As the dominant daily trend is up retracements into support could be viewed as buying opportunities with the initial area of interest being the 8 period moving averages. Scenario 2 Alternatively a sustain break of the 8 period moving averages could potentially see GBPUSD trade into the direction of the 34 period moving averages. Daily Technical Analysis for USDCHF as at 26th August 2013 DAILY OVERVIEW Trend : Short Ambush Zone : - Target 1 : - Target 2 : - Stop : - Comments USDCHF is this morning trading higher from the open after Fridays down day Following the breach of both trend line support and the 0.9200 area we have witnessed a good bounce off these levels. We are monitoring the price action to see if USDCHF can make a sustained push above the 8 period moving averages. The 8 period moving averages is also our initial area of interest where shorting opportunities may arise. In terms of the bigger picture the swing bias is negative. The following factors are confirming or reinforcing this market bias: 1. The swing bias remains negative. 2. The weekly time frame continues to have a negative bias. 3. The RSI is in gear with the move. 4. The averages are negatively layered. 5. The price action is trading beneath the averages. Alternative counter trend bullish factors: 1. The price action is becoming extended from the averages. Scenario 1 As the dominant daily trend is down corrective pullback could possibly offer shorting opportunities. Scenario 2 Alternatively if the price action can breach the 8 period moving averages then the next target is the 34 period moving averages. Daily Technical Analysis for USDJPY as at 26th August 2013 DAILY OVERVIEW Trend : Short Ambush Zone : - Target 1 : - Target 2 : - Stop : - Comments USDJPY is this morning trading unchanged from the open after Friday’s unchanged day. On Friday USDJPY pushed higher as traded through the 34 period moving averages and in Fibonacci resistance. However the price action failed to print a higher close. We are monitoring this move up to the Fibonacci resistance area and 34 period moving averages where we will reassess the situation and look for potential reversal patterns and resumption of the down trend. However a sustained move higher could see a higher low printed on the weekly chart an more focus being given to the long side. In terms of the bigger picture the swing bias is negative. The following factors are confirming or reinforcing this market bias: 1. The swing bias remains negative. 2. The moving averages have crossed negatively. 3. The price action has broken below the significant 100 level. 4. The RSI is confirming the move. 5. The price action has managed to break below the upward sloping trend line. 6. Fibonacci resistance is offering down side pressure. Alternative counter trend bullish factors: 1. The price action is trading above moving averages. Scenario 1 As the dominant daily trend is down retracements into resistance could be viewed as selling opportunities Scenario 2 Alternatively as the price action is trading above the 34 period moving averages there is the possibility of a corrective up move back to Fibonacci resistance. Daily Technical Analysis for Gold as at 26th August 2013 DAILY OVERVIEW Trend : Long Ambush Zone : - Target 1 : - Target 2 : - Stop : - Comments Gold is this morning trading unchanged from the open after Fridays up day. Following the printing of a higher high and breach the previous swing high Gold is now effectively trending positively. Friday’s correction down to the 8 period moving averages was our initial area of interest where a resumption of the uptrend could happen. Gold did bounce with force from this level and printed a further higher high. In terms of the bigger picture the swing bias has reversed to positive. The following factors are confirming or reinforcing this market bias: 1. The swing bias is positive. 2. The price action has printed a higher low. 3. The moving averages are layered positively. 4. The price action is trading above the averages. 5. The price action is trading above the 1322 support level. 6. The RSI is in gear with the move. Alternative counter trend bearish factors: 1. The weekly time frame continues to point down. 2. The price action is trading within the Fibonacci resistance zone. Scenario 1 As the dominant daily trend is up corrective sideways to down movements could potentially be viewed as buying opportunities. Scenario 2 Alternatively a sustain breach of the 8 period moving averages could see Gold trade down to the 34 period moving averages. Daily Technical Analysis for Oil (WTI) as at 26th August 2013 DAILY OVERVIEW Trend : Short Ambush Zone : - Target 1 : - Target 2 : - Stop : - Comments Oil is this morning trading lower from the open after Fridays up day. Following the down spike and lower low of the 8th August WTI has failed to print a higher high. Furthermore the breach of the 34 period moving averages has been followed by a lower high being printed. A move beneath the prior swing low would confirm the bearish bias however a broader analysis of the price pattern being currently formed is that price action is potentially printing a bullish flag consolidation. A failure of the flag could potentially see Oil move to the Fibonacci support area. In terms of the bigger picture the swing bias remains negative. The following factors are confirming or reinforcing this market bias: 1. The swing bias is negative. Alternative counter trend bullish factors: 1. Oil is trading above the averages. 2. The prior down spike has been reversed. 3. The averages are layered positively. 4. The price action is forming a possible corrective zigzag consolidation pattern. 5. The price action is trading above the large monthly converging triangle. 6. The weekly RSI diverging positively. Scenario 1 As the dominant daily trend is down retracements to resistance areas could possibly be viewed as selling opportunities. Scenario 2 Alternatively following the bounce off the 8th August down spike we are monitoring the possibility of a move to the 2nd August high.
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Daily Market Outlook from ACFX 08/23/2013 Important Financial Indicators of the day Forecast Previous EUR - 10:00 (GMT) - French Flash Manufacturing PMI - Forecast 50.4 - Previous 49.7 EUR - 10:30 (GMT) - German Flash Manufacturing PMI - Forecast 51.1 - Previous 50.7 USD - 15:30 (GMT) - Core Retail Sales m/m - Forecast 0.1% - Previous 1.2% USD - 15:30 (GMT) - Unemployment Claims - Forecast 329K - Previous 320K Currencies ◾EUR/USD The dollar advanced versus most of its major counterparts before housing and employment data that may signal continued recovery in the U.S., boosting the case for a reduction in central bank stimulus. ◾The dollar added 0.5 percent to 98.17 yen as of 1:31 p.m. in Tokyo. It gained 0.1 percent to $1.3340 per euro after climbing 0.5 percent yesterday. Europe’s shared currency bought 130.96 yen, 0.4 percent stronger than the close in New York ◾AUD/USD Australia’s dollar rallied against all 16 major peers after a private report showed China’s manufacturing expanded for the first time in four months, boosting trade prospects. ◾Australia’s currency gained 0.3 percent to 89.93 U.S. cents at 3:23 p.m. in Sydney after falling 2.4 percent in the previous three sessions. The Aussie added 0.4 percent to NZ$1.1473 after touching NZ$1.1483, the highest since Aug. 5. New Zealand’s dollar was little changed at 78.43 U.S. cents. ◾USD/CAD The Canadian dollar dropped to a six-week low after after Federal Reserve meeting minutes showed officials in broad agreement to start tapering bond purchases later this year. ◾The loonie, as Canada’s currency is nicknamed for the image of the aquatic bird on the C$1 coin, depreciated 0.8 percent to C$1.0474 per U.S. dollar at 5 p.m. in Toronto after touching C$1.0483, the weakest level since July 10. One Canadian dollar buys 95.48 U.S. cents. Commodities ◾Oil West Texas Intermediate crude traded near the lowest level in almost two weeks as signs that the U.S. will taper economic stimulus this year raised speculation oil demand may falter in the world’s biggest consumer. ◾WTI for October delivery was at $103.60 a barrel, down 25 cents, in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange at 9:54 a.m. Sydney time. The volume of all futures traded was about 67 percent below the 100-day average. The contract slid $1.26 to $103.85 yesterday, the lowest close since Aug. 8. ◾Brent for October settlement fell 34 cents, or 0.3 percent, to $109.81 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange yesterday. The European benchmark crude ended the session at a premium of $5.96 to WTI futures, the widest gap since June 26. ◾Gold pared losses as investors weighed the minutes of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s last meeting, which reinforced expectations that stimulus will be tapered, against an unexpected increase in China’s manufacturing. ◾Spot gold fell as much as 0.8 percent to $1,355.30 an ounce, before trading 0.2 percent lower at $1,364.49 at 10:40 a.m. in Singapore. Prices fell 0.3 percent yesterday after the minutes of the July meeting showed policy makers were comfortable with a plan to start reducing bond buying later this year if the economy improves, with a few saying tapering may be needed soon. Equities ◾Asian stocks fell, with the regional gauge close to wiping out all this year’s gains, as it heads for its longest losing streak since November, after Federal Reserve minutes showed officials support stimulus cuts this year. ◾The MSCI Asia Pacific Index dropped 0.9 percent to 129.45 as of 2:20 p.m. in Tokyo, less than 0.1 percent away from wiping out this year’s gains. About two stocks declined for each that rose as all 10 industry groups fell on the measure. ◾European stocks posted their longest losing streak in eight weeks amid speculation that the minutes of the Federal Reserve’s July meeting will give further details of when the central bank will slow its monthly bond purchases. ◾The Stoxx Europe 600 Index slipped 0.5 percent to 300.61 at the close of trading, extending its lowest level since July 31. The gauge has fallen 3.2 percent from this year’s high on May 22 as speculation mounted that the Fed will start to slow the pace of its quantitative-easing program next month. ◾U.S stocks fell, giving the Dow Jones Industrial Average its longest slump in 13 months, as minutes of the Federal Reserve’s July meeting showed officials support stimulus cuts this year if the economy improves. ◾The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index (SPX) lost 0.6 percent to 1,642.80 at 4 p.m. in New York, the lowest since July 8. The Dow dropped 105.44 points, or 0.7 percent, to 14,897.55. The measure retreated for a sixth day, the longest losing streak since July 2012. About 5.6 billion shares changed hands on U.S. exchanges today, 11 percent below the three-month average.
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Daily Technical Analysis from ACFX 08/23/2013 Daily Technical Analysis for EURUSD as at 23rd August 2013 DAILY OVERVIEW Trend : Long Ambush Zone : - Target 1 : - Target 2 : - Stop : - Comments EURUSD is this morning trading lower from the open after yesterdays up day. The breach of the prior swing high continues to give EURUSD a positive bias and this was confirmed yesterday by the bullish hammer that was printed whilst it traded around 8 periods moving averages support area. We continue to monitor the price action to see if the 8 period moving average will act as support. In terms of the bigger picture the swing bias has changed to positive. The following factors are confirming or reinforcing this market bias: 1. The swing bias is positive. 2. The price action has breached trend line resistance. 3. The RSI is confirming the move. 4. The weekly time frame is in gear with the daily time frame. 5. The averages have crossed positively. 6. The price action has broken above the 8 period moving averages. Alternative counter trend bullish factors: 1. The averages are becoming extended which could lead to corrective down to sideways price action. Scenario 1 As the dominant daily trend is up retracements into support could be viewed as buying opportunities Scenario 2 Alternatively if EURUSD can breach the 8 period moving averages the next target is the 34 period moving averages. Daily Technical Analysis for GBPUSD as at 22nd August 2013 DAILY OVERVIEW Trend : Long Ambush Zone : - Target 1 : - Target 2 : - Stop : - Comments GBPUSD is this morning trading unchanged from the open after yesterdays down day. Yesterday GBPUSD traded down to the area of the 8 period moving averages As the swing bias remains positive we are monitoring pullbacks to the 8 period moving averages acting as a potential buying area. In terms of the bigger the swing bias is positive. The following factors are confirming or reinforcing this market bias: 1. The swing bias has turned positive. 2. The price action is retracing to the positively layered averages which could offer a buying opportunity. 3. The averages have crossed positively. 4. The RSI is confirming the move. 5. The weekly time frame is in gear with the daily time frame. 6. The price action traded through the 1.5250 resistance level. Alternative counter trend bearish factors: 1. The moving averages are somewhat extended. Scenario 1 As the dominant daily trend is up retracements into support could be viewed as buying opportunities with the initial area of interest being the 8 period moving averages. Scenario 2 Alternatively a sustain break of the 8 period moving averages could potentially see GBPUSD trade into the direction of the 34 period moving averages. Daily Technical Analysis for USDCHF as at 23rd August 2013 DAILY OVERVIEW Trend : Short Ambush Zone : - Target 1 : - Target 2 : - Stop : - Comments USDCHF is this morning trading higher from the open after yesterdays up day Following the breach of both trend line support and the 0.9200 area we have witnessed a good bounce off these levels. We are monitoring the price action to see if USDCHF can make a sustained push above the 8 period moving averages. The 8 period moving averages is also our initial area of interest where shorting opportunities may arise. In terms of the bigger picture the swing bias is negative. The following factors are confirming or reinforcing this market bias: 1. The swing bias remains negative. 2. The weekly time frame continues to have a negative bias. 3. The RSI is in gear with the move. 4. The averages are negatively layered. 5. The price action is trading beneath the averages. Alternative counter trend bullish factors: 1. The price action is becoming extended from the averages. Scenario 1 As the dominant daily trend is down corrective pullback could possibly offer shorting opportunities. Scenario 2 Alternatively if the price action can breach the 8 period moving averages then the next target is the 34 period moving averages. Daily Technical Analysis for USDJPY as at 23rd August 2013 DAILY OVERVIEW Trend : Short Ambush Zone : - Target 1 : - Target 2 : - Stop : - Comments USDJPY is this morning trading higher from the open after yesterdays up day. Yesterday USDJPY pushed higher as traded through the 34 period moving averages and in Fibonacci resistance. We are monitoring this move up to the Fibonacci resistance area and 34 period moving averages where we will reassess the situation and look for potential reversal patterns and resumption of the down trend. However a sustained move higher could see a higher low printed on the weekly chart an more focus being given to the long side. In terms of the bigger picture the swing bias is negative. The following factors are confirming or reinforcing this market bias: 1. The swing bias remains negative. 2. The moving averages have crossed negatively. 3. The price action has broken below the significant 100 level. 4. The RSI is confirming the move. 5. The price action has managed to break below the upward sloping trend line. 6. Fibonacci resistance is offering down side pressure. Alternative counter trend bullish factors: 1. The price action is trading above moving averages. Scenario 1 As the dominant daily trend is down retracements into resistance could be viewed as selling opportunities Scenario 2 Alternatively as the price action is trading above the 8 period moving averages there is the possibility of a corrective up move back to Fibonacci resistance and the 34 period moving averages. Daily Technical Analysis for Gold as at 23rd August 2013 DAILY OVERVIEW Trend : Long Ambush Zone : - Target 1 : - Target 2 : - Stop : - Comments Gold is this morning trading unchanged from the open after yesterdays up day. Following the printing of a higher high and breach the previous swing high Gold is now effectively trending positively. Subsequently Gold has corrected down to the 8 period moving averages which is not our initial area of interest where possible positive rotation and resumption of the uptrend could happen. However a sustain breach of this average could potential see Gold trade down to the 34 period moving averages. In terms of the bigger picture the swing bias has reversed to positive. The following factors are confirming or reinforcing this market bias: 1. The swing bias is positive. 2. The price action has printed a higher low. 3. The moving averages are layered positively. 4. The price action is trading above the averages. 5. The price action is trading above the 1322 support level. 6. The RSI is in gear with the move. Alternative counter trend bearish factors: 1. The weekly time frame continues to point down. 2. The price action is trading within the Fibonacci resistance zone. Scenario 1 As the dominant daily trend is up corrective sideways to down movements could potentially be viewed as buying opportunities. Scenario 2 Alternatively a sustain breach of the 8 period moving averages could see Gold trade down to the 34 period moving averages. Daily Technical Analysis for Oil (WTI) as at 23rd August 2013 DAILY OVERVIEW Trend : Short Ambush Zone : - Target 1 : - Target 2 : - Stop : - Comments Oil is this morning trading lower from the open after yesterdays up day. Following the down spike and lower low of the 8th August WTI has failed to print a higher high. Furthermore the breach of the 34 period moving averages has been followed by a lower high being printed. A move beneath the prior swing low would confirm the bearish bias however a broader analysis of the price pattern being currently formed is that price action is potentially printing a bullish flag consolidation. A failure of the flag could potentially see Oil move to the Fibonacci support area. In terms of the bigger picture the swing bias remains negative. The following factors are confirming or reinforcing this market bias: 1. The swing bias is negative. 2. Oil is trading beneath the averages. Alternative counter trend bullish factors: 1. The prior down spike has been reversed. 2. The averages are layered positively. 3. The price action is forming a possible corrective zigzag consolidation pattern. 4. The price action is trading above the large monthly converging triangle. 5. The weekly RSI diverging positively. Scenario 1 As the dominant daily trend is down retracements to resistance areas could possibly be viewed as selling opportunities. Scenario 2 Alternatively following the bounce off the 8th August down spike we are monitoring the possibility of a move to the 2nd August high.
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Daily Market Outlook from ACFX 08/22/2013 Important Financial Indicators of the day EUR - 10:00 (GMT) - French Flash Manufacturing PMI - Forecast 50.4 - Previous 49.7 EUR - 10:30 (GMT) - German Flash Manufacturing PMI - Forecast -51.1 - Previous 50.7 USD - 15:30 (GMT) - Core Retail Sales m/m - Forecast 0.1% - Previous 1.2% USD - 15:30 (GMT) - Unemployment Claims - Forecast329K - Previous 320K Currencies ◾EUR/USD The dollar advanced versus most of its major counterparts before housing and employment data that may signal continued recovery in the U.S., boosting the case for a reduction in central bank stimulus. ◾The dollar added 0.5 percent to 98.17 yen as of 1:31 p.m. in Tokyo. It gained 0.1 percent to $1.3340 per euro after climbing 0.5 percent yesterday. Europe’s shared currency bought 130.96 yen, 0.4 percent stronger than the close in New York ◾AUD/USD Australia’s dollar rallied against all 16 major peers after a private report showed China’s manufacturing expanded for the first time in four months, boosting trade prospects. ◾Australia’s currency gained 0.3 percent to 89.93 U.S. cents at 3:23 p.m. in Sydney after falling 2.4 percent in the previous three sessions. The Aussie added 0.4 percent to NZ$1.1473 after touching NZ$1.1483, the highest since Aug. 5. New Zealand’s dollar was little changed at 78.43 U.S. cents. ◾USD/CAD The Canadian dollar dropped to a six-week low after after Federal Reserve meeting minutes showed officials in broad agreement to start tapering bond purchases later this year. ◾The loonie, as Canada’s currency is nicknamed for the image of the aquatic bird on the C$1 coin, depreciated 0.8 percent to C$1.0474 per U.S. dollar at 5 p.m. in Toronto after touching C$1.0483, the weakest level since July 10. One Canadian dollar buys 95.48 U.S. cents. Commodities ◾Oil West Texas Intermediate crude traded near the lowest level in almost two weeks as signs that the U.S. will taper economic stimulus this year raised speculation oil demand may falter in the world’s biggest consumer. ◾WTI for October delivery was at $103.60 a barrel, down 25 cents, in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange at 9:54 a.m. Sydney time. The volume of all futures traded was about 67 percent below the 100-day average. The contract slid $1.26 to $103.85 yesterday, the lowest close since Aug. 8. ◾Brent for October settlement fell 34 cents, or 0.3 percent, to $109.81 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange yesterday. The European benchmark crude ended the session at a premium of $5.96 to WTI futures, the widest gap since June 26. ◾Gold pared losses as investors weighed the minutes of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s last meeting, which reinforced expectations that stimulus will be tapered, against an unexpected increase in China’s manufacturing. ◾Spot gold fell as much as 0.8 percent to $1,355.30 an ounce, before trading 0.2 percent lower at $1,364.49 at 10:40 a.m. in Singapore. Prices fell 0.3 percent yesterday after the minutes of the July meeting showed policy makers were comfortable with a plan to start reducing bond buying later this year if the economy improves, with a few saying tapering may be needed soon. Equities ◾Asian stocks fell, with the regional gauge close to wiping out all this year’s gains, as it heads for its longest losing streak since November, after Federal Reserve minutes showed officials support stimulus cuts this year. ◾The MSCI Asia Pacific Index dropped 0.9 percent to 129.45 as of 2:20 p.m. in Tokyo, less than 0.1 percent away from wiping out this year’s gains. About two stocks declined for each that rose as all 10 industry groups fell on the measure. ◾European stocks posted their longest losing streak in eight weeks amid speculation that the minutes of the Federal Reserve’s July meeting will give further details of when the central bank will slow its monthly bond purchases. ◾The Stoxx Europe 600 Index slipped 0.5 percent to 300.61 at the close of trading, extending its lowest level since July 31. The gauge has fallen 3.2 percent from this year’s high on May 22 as speculation mounted that the Fed will start to slow the pace of its quantitative-easing program next month. ◾U.S stocks fell, giving the Dow Jones Industrial Average its longest slump in 13 months, as minutes of the Federal Reserve’s July meeting showed officials support stimulus cuts this year if the economy improves. ◾The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index (SPX) lost 0.6 percent to 1,642.80 at 4 p.m. in New York, the lowest since July 8. The Dow dropped 105.44 points, or 0.7 percent, to 14,897.55. The measure retreated for a sixth day, the longest losing streak since July 2012. About 5.6 billion shares changed hands on U.S. exchanges today, 11 percent below the three-month average.
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Daily Technical Analysis from ACFX 08/22/2013 Daily Technical Analysis for EURUSD as at 22nd August 2013 DAILY OVERVIEW Trend : Long Ambush Zone : - Target 1 : - Target 2 : - Stop : - Comments EURUSD is this morning trading lower from the open after yesterdays down day. The breach of the prior swing high continues to give EURUSD a positive bias however yesterdays price action failed to make further highs. Later into the session the price action traded down into the direction of the 8 period moving averages and this negativity has continued this morning which has seen the completion of the move to this average. We continue to monitor the price action to see if the 8 period moving average will act as support. In terms of the bigger picture the swing bias has changed to positive. The following factors are confirming or reinforcing this market bias: 1. The swing bias is positive. 2. The price action has breached trend line resistance. 3. The RSI is confirming the move. 4. The weekly time frame is in gear with the daily time frame. 5. The averages have crossed positively. 6. The price action has broken above the 8 period moving averages. Alternative counter trend bullish factors: 1. The averages are becoming extended which could lead to corrective down to sideways price action. Scenario 1 As the dominant daily trend is up retracements into support could be viewed as buying opportunities Scenario 2 Alternatively as the price action is trading above the 8 period moving averages there is potential for scalping and counter trend opportunities taken off intraday charts with the target being the 8 period moving averages. Daily Technical Analysis for GBPUSD as at 22nd August 2013 DAILY OVERVIEW Trend : Long Ambush Zone : - Target 1 : - Target 2 : - Stop : - Comments GBPUSD is this morning trading unchanged from the open after yesterdays down day. There has been a fairly active open to this morning’s session with GBPUSD trading down to the 8 period moving averages. We are monitoring pullbacks to the 8 period moving averages acting as a potential buying area. In terms of the bigger the swing bias is positive. The following factors are confirming or reinforcing this market bias: 1. The swing bias has turned positive. 2. The price action is retracing to the positively layered averages which could offer a buying opportunity. 3. The averages have crossed positively. 4. The RSI is confirming the move. 5. The weekly time frame is in gear with the daily time frame. 6. The price action traded through the 1.5250 resistance level. Alternative counter trend bearish factors: 1. The moving averages are somewhat extended. Scenario 1 As the dominant daily trend is up retracements into support could be viewed as buying opportunities with the initial area of interest being the 8 period moving averages. Scenario 2 Alternatively a sustain break of the 8 period moving averages could potentially see GBPUSD trade into the direction of the 34 period moving averages. Daily Technical Analysis for USDCHF as at 22nd August 2013 DAILY OVERVIEW Trend : Short Ambush Zone : - Target 1 : - Target 2 : - Stop : - Comments USDCHF is this morning trading higher from the open after yesterdays up day Following the breach of both trend line support and the 0.9200 area we have witnessed yesterday a strong bounce off these levels. We are monitoring the price action for any signs of increased upward momentum which could see USDCHF trade up to and breach the 8 period moving averages. The 8 period moving averages is also our initial area of interest where shorting opportunities may arise. In terms of the bigger picture the swing bias is negative. The following factors are confirming or reinforcing this market bias: 1. The swing bias remains negative. 2. The weekly time frame continues to have a negative bias. 3. The RSI is in gear with the move. 4. The averages are negatively layered. 5. The price action is trading beneath the averages. Alternative counter trend bullish factors: 1. The price action is becoming extended from the averages. Scenario 1 As the dominant daily trend is down corrective pullback could possibly offer shorting opportunities. Scenario 2 Alternatively as the price action is trading below the 8 period moving averages there is potential for scalping and counter trend opportunities taken off intraday charts with the target being the 8 period moving averages. Daily Technical Analysis for USDJPY as at 22nd August 2013 DAILY OVERVIEW Trend : Short Ambush Zone : - Target 1 : - Target 2 : - Stop : - Comments USDJPY is this morning trading higher from the open after yesterdays up day. Although USDJPY continues to trade within a tight range we are this morning seeing a sustain push higher off the 8 period moving averages. We are monitoring a move up to the Fibonacci resistance area and 34 period moving averages where we will reassess the situation and look for potential reversal patterns and resumption of the down trend. However a sustain move higher could see a higher low printed on the weekly chart an more focus being given to the long side. In terms of the bigger picture the swing bias is negative. The following factors are confirming or reinforcing this market bias: 1. The swing bias remains negative. 2. The moving averages have crossed negatively. 3. The price action has broken below the significant 100 level. 4. The RSI is confirming the move. 5. The price action has managed to break below the upward sloping trend line. 6. Fibonacci resistance is offering down side pressure. Alternative counter trend bullish factors: 1. The price action is trading above the 8 period moving averages. Scenario 1 As the dominant daily trend is down retracements into resistance could be viewed as selling opportunities Scenario 2 Alternatively as the price action is trading above the 8 period moving averages there is the possibility of a corrective up move back to Fibonacci resistance and the 34 period moving averages. Daily Technical Analysis for Gold as at 22nd August 2013 DAILY OVERVIEW Trend : Long Ambush Zone : - Target 1 : - Target 2 : - Stop : - Comments Gold is this morning trading lower from the open after yesterdays down day. Following the printing of a higher high and breach the previous swing high Gold is now effectively trending positively. Subsequently Gold has corrected down to the 8 period moving averages which is not our initial area of interest where possible positive rotation and resumption of the uptrend could happen. However a sustain breach of this average could potential see Gold trade down to the 34 period moving averages. In terms of the bigger picture the swing bias has reversed to positive. The following factors are confirming or reinforcing this market bias: 1. The swing bias is positive. 2. The price action has printed a higher low. 3. The moving averages are layered positively. 4. The price action is trading above the averages. 5. The price action is trading above the 1322 support level. 6. The RSI is in gear with the move. Alternative counter trend bearish factors: 1. The weekly time frame continues to point down. 2. The price action is trading within the Fibonacci resistance zone. Scenario 1 As the dominant daily trend is up corrective sideways to down movements could potentially be viewed as buying opportunities. Scenario 2 Alternatively a sustain breach of the 8 period moving averages could see Gold trade down to the 34 period moving averages. Daily Technical Analysis for Oil (WTI) as at 22nd August 2013 DAILY OVERVIEW Trend : Short Ambush Zone : - Target 1 : - Target 2 : - Stop : - Comments Oil is this morning trading lower from the open after yesterdays down day. Following the down spike and lower low of the 8th August WTI has failed to print a higher high. Furthermore the breach of the 34 period moving averages has been followed by a lower high being printed. A move beneath the prior swing low would confirm the bearish bias however a broader analysis of the price pattern being currently formed is that price action is potentially printing a bullish flag consolidation. A failure of the flag could potentially see Oil move to the Fibonacci support area. In terms of the bigger picture the swing bias remains negative. The following factors are confirming or reinforcing this market bias: 1. The swing bias is negative. 2. Oil is trading beneath the averages. Alternative counter trend bullish factors: 1. The prior down spike has been reversed. 2. The averages are layered positively. 3. The price action is forming a possible corrective zigzag consolidation pattern. 4. The price action is trading above the large monthly converging triangle. 5. The weekly RSI diverging positively. Scenario 1 As the dominant daily trend is down retracements to resistance areas could possibly be viewed as selling opportunities. Scenario 2 Alternatively following the bounce off the 8th August down spike we are monitoring the possibility of a move to the 2nd August high.
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Daily Market Outlook from ACFX 08/21/2013 Important Financial Indicators of the day USD - 17:00 (GMT) - Existing Home Sales - Forecast 5.15M - Previous 5.08M USD - 21:00 (GMT) - FOMC Meeting Minutes Currencies ◾EUR/USD The dollar rose versus its Asia-Pacific counterparts as investors await the release today of minutes from the Federal Reserve’s last meeting for signals on when it may curtail monetary stimulus. ◾The euro bought $1.3422 from $1.3417 yesterday, when it reached $1.3452, the highest since Feb. 14. It was little changed at 130.52 yen. ◾GBP/USD The British pound is reversing its best monthly gain in a year against the Swiss franc as trading patterns suggest its rise was too much, too soon. ◾The pound has climbed 2.8 percent in August versus a basket of 10 developed-market currencies tracked by Bloomberg Correlation-Weighted Indexes, the biggest monthly gain since September 2011, as unemployment requests dropped more in July than economists forecast. Sterling bears view the data strength as temporary with the Bank of England remaining prepared to loosen monetary policy. ◾USD/CAD The Canadian dollar fell to the lowest in almost two weeks as oil, the nation’s biggest export, slid amid bets the Federal Reserve will slow monetary stimulus that has fueled demand for riskier assets as soon as next month. ◾The loonie, as Canada’s currency is nicknamed for the image of the aquatic bird on the C$1 coin, depreciated for a third day, losing 0.5 percent to C$1.0392 per U.S. dollar at 5 p.m. in Toronto. It touched C$1.0401, the weakest level since Aug. 8. One Canadian dollar buys 96.23 U.S. cents. Commodities ◾Oil West Texas Intermediate crude swung between gains and losses after declining the most in two months yesterday amid speculation the Federal Reserve will taper economic stimulus. Industry data showed U.S. supplies fell. ◾WTI for October delivery was at $104.90 a barrel, down 21 cents, in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange at 12:35 p.m. Singapore time. The volume of all futures traded was about 29 percent below the 100-day average. The September contract expired at $104.96 yesterday after losing 2 percent, the most since June 20. ◾Brent for October settlement slid 35 cents to $109.80 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. The European benchmark crude was at a premium of $4.90 to WTI. The spread was $5.04 yesterday, the widest since June 28. ◾Gold fluctuated between gains and losses before the U.S. Federal Reserve releases minutes from its last meeting, which may provide clues on whether the pace of stimulus will be slowed amid signs of increased bullion demand. ◾Spot gold gained and fell at least 0.3 percent, and was up 45 cents at $1,371.62 an ounce at 11:30 a.m. in Singapore. Prices rose to a two-month high of $1,384.55 on Aug. 19. Assets in the biggest exchange-traded product expanded for the fourth time this month, while the volume for Shanghai’s benchmark spot contract climbed to the highest in more than two weeks. Equities ◾Asian stocks index fell for a fifth day to trade at the lowest level in six weeks before the release of minutes of the Federal Reserve’s July meeting. ◾The MSCI Asia Pacific Index dropped 0.7 percent to 130.68 as of 12:20 p.m. in Hong Kong, with all 10 industry groups on the gauge falling. The measure fell 3.3 percent in the past four days to the lowest closing level since July 9. ◾European stocks fell for a second day, following Asian shares lower, amid speculation the Federal Reserve will curb its bond-buying program as soon as next month. ◾The Stoxx Europe 600 Index lost 0.8 percent to 302.25 at the close of trading, its lowest level since July 31. The equity benchmark has fallen 2.7 percent from its peak this year on May 22 as Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said the U.S. central bank could pare stimulus measures if the economy improves in line with its forecasts. ◾U.S stocks rose, with the Standard & Poor’s 500 snapping a four-day losing streak, as retailers’ results surpassed estimates and investors awaited signals on stimulus measures from the Federal Reserve. ◾The S&P 500 rose 0.4 percent to 1,652.35 at 4 p.m. in New York. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 7.75 points, or less than 0.1 percent, to 15,002.99, erasing earlier gains of as much as 0.4 percent. Almost 5.3 billion shares changed hands on U.S. exchanges today, 16 percent below the three-month average, as more than three stocks rose for each that fell.
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Daily Technical Analysis from ACFX 08/21/2013 Daily Technical Analysis for EURUSD as at 21st August 2013 DAILY OVERVIEW Trend : Long Ambush Zone : - Target 1 : - Target 2 : - Stop : - Comments EURUSD is this morning trading unchanged from the open after yesterdays up day. Following the bounce off the downward sloping trend line EURUSD found further support at the 8 period moving averages. This possibility was discussed in previous posts. The move off the averages yesterday was aggressive and had enough upward momentum to breach the prior swing high. This breach effectively changes the trend from short to long. We continue to monitor the price action to see if the 8 period moving average will act as support. In terms of the bigger picture the swing bias has changed to positive. The following factors are confirming or reinforcing this market bias: 1. The swing bias is positive. 2. The price action has breached trend line resistance. 3. The RSI is confirming the move. 4. The weekly time frame is in gear with the daily time frame. 5. The averages have crossed positively. 6. The price action has broken above the 8 period moving averages. Alternative counter trend bullish factors: 1. The averages are becoming extended which could lead to corrective down to sideways price action. Scenario 1 As the dominant daily trend is up retracements into resistance could be viewed as buying opportunities Scenario 2 Alternatively as the price action is trading above the 8 period moving averages there is potential for scalping and counter trend opportunities taken off intraday charts with the target being the 8 period moving averages. Daily Technical Analysis for GBPUSD as at 21st August 2013 DAILY OVERVIEW Trend : Long Ambush Zone : - Target 1 : - Target 2 : - Stop : - Comments GBPUSD is this morning trading unchanged from the open after yesterdays up day. Further to the subdued price action GBPUSD is trading within a very narrow 2 day range. We are monitoring pullbacks to the 8 period moving averages acting as a potential buying area. In terms of the bigger the swing bias is positive. The following factors are confirming or reinforcing this market bias: 1. The swing bias has turned positive. 2. The price action is retracing to the positively layered averages which could offer a buying opportunity. 3. The averages have crossed positively. 4. The RSI is confirming the move. 5. The weekly time frame is in gear with the daily time frame. 6. The price action traded through the 1.5250 resistance level. Alternative counter trend bearish factors: 1. The moving averages are somewhat extended. Scenario 1 As the dominant daily trend is up retracements into support could be viewed as buying opportunities with the initial area of interest being the 8 period moving averages. Scenario 2 Alternatively the price action extended from the averages could offer short term shorting opportunities. Daily Technical Analysis for USDCHF as at 21st August 2013 DAILY OVERVIEW Trend : Short Ambush Zone : - Target 1 : - Target 2 : - Stop : - Comments USDCHF is this morning trading higher from the open after yesterdays down day Further to the breach of the 8 period moving averages and the downward momentum has continued with further breaches of the 0.9200 support area and upward sloping trend line. This move has in the process also breached the prior swing low and has therefore reinforced the negative bias. In terms of the bigger picture the swing bias is negative. The following factors are confirming or reinforcing this market bias: 1. The swing bias remains negative. 2. The weekly time frame continues to have a negative bias. 3. The RSI is in gear with the move. 4. The averages are negatively layered. 5. The price action is trading beneath the averages. Alternative counter trend bullish factors: 1. The price action is becoming extended from the averages. Scenario 1 As the dominant daily trend is down corrective pullback could possibly offer shorting opportunities. Scenario 2 Alternatively as the price action is trading below the 8 period moving averages there is potential for scalping and counter trend opportunities taken off intraday charts with the target being the 8 period moving averages. Daily Technical Analysis for USDJPY as at 21st August 2013 DAILY OVERVIEW Trend : Short Ambush Zone : - Target 1 : - Target 2 : - Stop : - Comments USDJPY is this morning trading higher from the open after yesterdays down day. This morning USDJPY is trading within 6 day range as it consolidates around the 8 period moving averages. A failure to break significantly below this average could propel USDJPY back up to the Fibonacci resistance area. We are monitoring the potential for further negative rotation and return to the down trend. In terms of the bigger picture the swing bias is negative. The following factors are confirming or reinforcing this market bias: 1. The swing bias remains negative. 2. The moving averages have crossed negatively. 3. The price action has broken below the significant 100 level. 4. The RSI is confirming the move. 5. The price action has managed to break below the upward sloping trend line. 6. Fibonacci resistance is offering down side pressure. Alternative counter trend bullish factors: 1. The weekly time remains with a positive bias. 2. The price action is trading above the 8 period moving averages. Scenario 1 As the dominant daily trend is down retracements into resistance could be viewed as selling opportunities Scenario 2 Alternatively as the price action is trading above the 8 period moving averages there is the possibility of a corrective up move back to Fibonacci resistance and the 34 period moving averages. Daily Technical Analysis for Gold as at 21st August 2013 DAILY OVERVIEW Trend : Long Ambush Zone : - Target 1 : - Target 2 : - Stop : - Comments Gold is this morning trading lower from the open after yesterdays up day. Gold continues to trade above the previous swing high and effectively changes the trend to positive by printing a bullish higher low and higher high sequence. However the price action is now becoming extended from the averages. In terms of the bigger picture the swing bias has reversed to positive. The following factors are confirming or reinforcing this market bias: 1. The swing bias is positive. 2. The price action has printed a higher low. 3. The moving averages are layered positively. 4. The price action is trading above the averages. 5. The price action is trading above the 1322 support level. 6. The RSI is in gear with the move. Alternative counter trend bearish factors: 1. The weekly time frame continues to point down. 2. The price action is trading within the Fibonacci resistance zone. 3. The price action is extended from the averages. Scenario 1 As the dominant daily trend is up corrective sideways to down movements could potentially be viewed as buying opportunities. Scenario 2 Alternatively the price action is extended from the averages which could offer shorting opportunities. Daily Technical Analysis for Oil (WTI) as at 21st August 2013 DAILY OVERVIEW Trend : Short Ambush Zone : - Target 1 : - Target 2 : - Stop : - Comments Oil is this morning trading lower from the open after yesterdays down day. Following the down spike and lower low of the 8th August WTI has failed to print a higher high. In fact the current price action with Oil breaching and trading beneath the 34 period moving averages might indicate a lower high could be printed. A move beneath the prior swing low would confirm the bearish bias however a broader analysis of the price pattern being currently formed is that price action is potentially printing a bullish consolidation flag. In terms of the bigger picture the swing bias remains negative. The following factors are confirming or reinforcing this market bias: 1. The swing bias is negative. Alternative counter trend bullish factors: 1. The prior down spike has been reversed. 2. The price action is trading above the averages. 3. The averages are layered positively. 4. The price action is forming a possible corrective zigzag consolidation pattern. 5. The price action is trading above the large monthly converging triangle. 6. The weekly RSI diverging positively. Scenario 1 As the dominant daily trend is down retracements to resistance areas could possibly be viewed as selling opportunities. Scenario 2 Alternatively following the bounce off the 8th August down spike we are monitoring the possibility of a move to the 2nd August high.
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Daily Market Outlook from ACFX 08/19/2013 Currencies ◾EUR/USD The euro was 0.4 percent from a one-week high against its U.S. peer before German data this week that analysts predict may show the currency bloc’s largest economy is gaining momentum ◾The euro bought $1.3324 as of 1:28 p.m. in Tokyo from $1.3329 at the end of last week, when it touched $1.3380, the strongest level since Aug. 9. The currency was little changed at 130.01 yen. The dollar added 0.1 percent to 97.58 yen, after earlier strengthening as much as 0.3 percent. ◾AUD/USD Australia’s dollar rose to a three-week high on speculation minutes tomorrow of the Reserve Bank’s meeting this month will signal the central bank is in no hurry to cut interest rates. ◾The Australian currency gained 0.3 percent to 92.15 U.S. cents as of 2:30 p.m. in Sydney from Aug. 16, after touching 92.33, the highest since July 29. New Zealand’s dollar gained 0.2 percent to 81.20 U.S. cents, after touching 81.29, the strongest since June 14. Commodities ◾Oil West Texas Intermediate oil swung between gains and losses near a two-week high. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. raised its price forecasts for Brent, citing supply disruptions in Libya and Iraq. ◾WTI for September delivery, which expires tomorrow, climbed 9 cents to $107.55 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange at 12:20 p.m. Singapore time. The volume of all futures traded was about 3 percent above the 100-day average. The contract ended the session at $107.46 on Aug. 16, the highest close since Aug. 1. The more active October future was up 7 cents at $107.36. ◾Brent for October settlement increased 8 cents to $110.48 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. It was at a premium of $3.12 to WTI. The spread narrowed for the first time in a week on Aug. 16 to $3.11. ◾Gold rose to a two-month high after holdings in the largest exchange-traded product posted the first weekly expansion this year. Silver headed for the longest rally since March 2008. ◾Spot gold gained as much as 0.6 percent to $1,384.55 an ounce, the highest since June 18, and traded at $1,382.45 at 10:05 a.m. in Singapore. Silver added 1.6 percent to $23.6225 an ounce, the highest since May 14, after entering a bull market last week Equities ◾Asian stocks fell for a third day as a retreat in emerging markets dragged the regional benchmark gauge to its lowest level in a week. Japan’s Topix index swung from losses to gains amid low trading volumes. ◾The MSCI Asia Pacific excluding Japan Index fell 0.5 percent to 444.56 as of 12:30 p.m. in Hong Kong. Seven of the 10 industry groups on the gauge dropped. The measure has lagged an increase in U.S. stocks this year as growth slows in China and speculation that the Federal Reserve will curb U.S. bond buying spurred investors to sell assets perceived as riskier across Asia and emerging markets. The Federal Open Market Committee’s July meeting minutes are scheduled to be released on Aug. 21. ◾European stocks advanced for a third straight week as data showing the euro area emerged from the longest recession on record outweighed speculation the Federal Reserve will trim monetary stimulus. ◾The benchmark Stoxx Europe 600 Index increased 0.1 percent to 306.36 this past week, extending its 2013 advance to 9.5 percent. The Euro Stoxx 50 Index added 1 percent for a sixth week of gains. Gross domestic product in the 17-nation euro area expanded 0.3 percent in the second quarter after a six straight periods of contraction ◾U.S stocks Investors are favoring U.S. stocks over emerging markets by the most ever as fund flows and volatility measures show institutions are increasingly seeking the relative safety of American equities. ◾The S&P 500 slid 2.1 percent to 1,655.83 last week, paring its gain this year to 16 percent, as data on rising retail sales, subdued inflation and a drop in jobless claims fueled speculation the Fed will cut monetary stimulus, known as quantitative easing. The central bank will probably reduce the $85 billion in monthly bond purchases next month
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Daily Technical Analysis from ACFX 08/19/2013 Daily Technical Analysis for EURUSD as at 19th August 2013 DAILY OVERVIEW Trend : Short Ambush Zone : - Target 1 : - Target 2 : - Stop : - Comments EURUSD is this morning trading lower from the open after Fridays down day. EURUSD has thus far been unable to breach the 8th August high. A breach of this swing point would effectively change the trend to long. However the price action continues to trade above both the 8 period moving averages and the downward sloping trend line which could offer a base of support for a further upswing. We are monitoring the price action to see if the 8 period moving average will now act as support that will eventually lead EURUSD higher and into the direction of the last isolated high of the 8th August. In terms of the bigger picture the swing bias is negative. The following factors are confirming or reinforcing this market bias: 1. The swing bias is negative. 2. The price action is trading around the area of trend line resistance. 3. The RSI is confirming the move. 4. The weekly time frame is in gear with the daily time frame. Alternative counter trend bullish factors: 1. The averages have crossed positively. 2. The price action has broken above the 8 period moving averages. Scenario 1 As the dominant daily trend is down retracements into resistance could be viewed as selling opportunities Scenario 2 Alternatively as the price action is trading above the 8 period moving averages approaches back to this average could offer support and a buying area. Daily Technical Analysis for GBPUSD as at 19th August 2013 DAILY OVERVIEW Trend : Long Ambush Zone : - Target 1 : - Target 2 : - Stop : - Comments GBPUSD is this morning trading unchanged from the open after Fridays down day. After Thursdays strong up day the subsequent trading sessions have been quiet with very narrow ranges. We are monitoring pullbacks to the 8 period moving averages acting as a potential buying area. In terms of the bigger the swing bias is positive. The following factors are confirming or reinforcing this market bias: 1. The swing bias has turned positive. 2. The price action is retracing to the positively layered averages which could offer a buying opportunity. 3. The averages have crossed positively. 4. The RSI is confirming the move. 5. The weekly time frame is in gear with the daily time frame. 6. The price action traded through the 1.5250 resistance level. Alternative counter trend bearish factors: 1. The moving averages are somewhat extended. Scenario 1 As the dominant daily trend is up retracements into support could be viewed as buying opportunities with the initial area of interest being the 8 period moving averages. Scenario 2 Alternatively the price action extended from the averages could offer short term shorting opportunities. Daily Technical Analysis for USDCHF as at 19th August 2013 DAILY OVERVIEW Trend : Short Ambush Zone : - Target 1 : - Target 2 : - Stop : - Comments USDCHF is this morning trading higher from the open after Fridays up day After trading down off the 34 period moving averages USDCHF has bounced off the 8 period moving averages. A failure to trade beneath the 8 period averages could potentially indicate that a move back to the 34 period moving average is possible. We are monitoring the price action at these levels to see if the negativity continues. However there is a potential support hurdles to be overcome at the 0.9200 and the upward sloping trend line. A breach of the 8th August low will need to happen so as to reinforce the negative bias. In terms of the bigger picture the swing bias is negative. The following factors are confirming or reinforcing this market bias: 1. The swing bias remains negative. 2. The weekly time frame continues to have a negative bias. 3. The RSI is in gear with the move. 4. The averages are negatively layered. Alternative counter trend bullish factors: 1. USDCHF has bounced off the 0.9200 level. 2. USDCHF has bounced of trend line support. Scenario 1 As the dominant daily trend is down corrective pullback could possibly offer shorting opportunities. Scenario 2 Alternatively support may potentially be found at the 8 period moving averages. This support could precede an extended move to the 34 period moving averages. Daily Technical Analysis for USDJPY as at 19th August 2013 DAILY OVERVIEW Trend : Short Ambush Zone : - Target 1 : - Target 2 : - Stop : - Comments USDJPY is this morning trading higher from the open after Fridays up day. After trading down USDJPY has found support at the 8 period moving averages. A failure to break this average could propel USDJPY back up to the Fibonacci resistance area. We are monitoring the potential for further negative rotation and return to the down trend. In terms of the bigger picture the swing bias is negative. The following factors are confirming or reinforcing this market bias: 1. The swing bias remains negative. 2. The moving averages have crossed negatively. 3. The price action has broken below the significant 100 level. 4. The RSI is confirming the move. 5. The price action has managed to break below the upward sloping trend line. 6. Fibonacci resistance is offering down side pressure. Alternative counter trend bullish factors: 1. The weekly time remains with a positive bias. 2. The price action is trading above the 8 period moving averages. Scenario 1 As the dominant daily trend is down retracements into resistance could be viewed as selling opportunities Scenario 2 Alternatively as the price action is trading above the 8 period moving averages there is the possibility of a corrective up move back to Fibonacci resistance and the 34 period moving averages. Daily Technical Analysis for Gold as at 19th August 2013 DAILY OVERVIEW Trend : Long Ambush Zone : - Target 1 : - Target 2 : - Stop : - Comments Gold is this morning trading lower from the open after Fridays up day. Gold continues to trade above the previous swing high and effectively changes the trend to positive by printing a bullish higher low and higher high sequence. However the price action is now becoming extended from the averages. In terms of the bigger picture the swing bias has reversed to positive. The following factors are confirming or reinforcing this market bias: 1. The swing bias is positive. 2. The price action has printed a higher low. 3. The moving averages are layered positively. 4. The price action is trading above the averages. 5. The price action is trading above the 1322 support level. 6. The RSI is in gear with the move. Alternative counter trend bearish factors: 1. The weekly time frame continues to point down. 2. The price action is trading within the Fibonacci resistance zone. 3. The price action is extended from the averages. Scenario 1 As the dominant daily trend is up corrective sideways to down movements could potentially be viewed as buying opportunities. Scenario 2 Alternatively the price action is extended from the averages which could offer shorting opportunities. Daily Technical Analysis for Oil (WTI) as at 19th August 2013 DAILY OVERVIEW Trend : Short Ambush Zone : - Target 1 : - Target 2 : - Stop : - Comments Oil is this morning trading lower from the open after Fridays up day. Following Oils 8th August down spike that breached the prior swing low the price action has since bounced off the 34 and is now trading above the 8 period moving averages. Although the down spike has effectively turned the swing bias to negative the subsequent bullish reversal could indicate that break down was nothing more than a fake out. A breach of the prior swing high or swing low will confirm the bullish or bearish bias. In terms of the bigger picture the swing bias remains negative. The following factors are confirming or reinforcing this market bias: 1. The swing bias is negative. Alternative counter trend bullish factors: 1. The prior down spike has been reversed. 2. The price action is trading above the averages. 3. The averages are layered positively. 4. The price action is forming a possible corrective zigzag consolidation pattern. 5. The price action is trading above the large monthly converging triangle. 6. The weekly RSI diverging positively. Scenario 1 As the dominant daily trend is down retracements to resistance areas could possibly be viewed as selling opportunities. Scenario 2 Alternatively following the bounce off the 8th August down spike we are monitoring the possibility of a move to the 2nd August high.
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Daily Market Outlook 08/16/2013 Important Financial Indicators of the day CAD - 15:30 (GMT) - Manufacturing Sales m/m - Forecast 0.5% - Previous 0.7% USD - 15:30 (GMT) - Building Permits - Forecast 0.95M - Previous 0.92M USD - 16:55 (GMT) - Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment - Forecast 85.6 - Previous 85.1 Currencies ◾EUR/USD The dollar headed for its biggest weekly advance in a month against the yen before U.S. reports that economists said will show housing starts and consumer confidence improved. ◾The dollar was little changed at 97.35 yen at 8:36 a.m. in London, having risen 1.2 percent this week, the most since the period ended July 19. The U.S. currency was also little changed at $1.3348 per euro. The yen traded at 129.92 per euro from 129.97 yesterday. ◾GBP/USD The pound headed for a second weekly gain versus the dollar and the euro after data added to signs the U.K. economy is strengthening. ◾The pound slid 0.1 percent to $1.5626 at 7:39 a.m. London time after appreciating to $1.5652 yesterday, the highest since June 19. It has gained 0.8 percent this week. The U.K. currency was little changed at 85.35 pence per euro after reaching 85.05 pence yesterday, the strongest since July 3. It has appreciated 0.8 percent since Aug. 9. ◾USD/CAD Canada’s dollar gained the most this week as speculation the Federal Reserve will begin slowing stimulus as soon as September weighed on demand for assets denominated in the U.S. currency. ◾The loonie, as Canada’s currency is nicknamed for the image of the aquatic bird on the C$1 coin, appreciated 0.4 percent, the most on a closing basis since Aug. 9, to C$1.0306 per U.S. dollar at 5 p.m. in Toronto. It declined earlier to C$1.0364 after touching C$1.0370 yesterday, the weakest since Aug. 8. One loonie buys 97.03 U.S. cents Commodities ◾Oil West Texas Intermediate crude traded near the highest price in two weeks as an escalating conflict in Egypt fanned concern that oil shipments through the country may be disrupted. ◾WTI for September delivery was at $107.39 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange, up 6 cents at 3 p.m. Singapore time. The volume of all futures traded was 26 percent below the 100-day average. The contract ended yesterday’s session at $107.33, the highest close since Aug. 1. Prices have advanced 1.3 percent this week. ◾Brent for October settlement increased 3 cents to $109.63 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. The September contract expired yesterday after climbing 91 cents to $111.11, the highest since March 7. The front-month European benchmark crude was at a premium of $2.54 to WTI futures. The spread widened for a fourth day yesterday to $3.78. ◾Gold traded near a two-month high, set for the best week in five, on signs of increased physical demand and as sales from exchange-traded products slowed. Silver was set for the best week since October 2011. ◾Spot gold rose as much as 0.5 percent to $1,372.97 an ounce, the highest since June 19, and traded at $1,364.55 at 2:05 p.m. in Singapore. Silver was little changed at $23.01 an ounce after yesterday rising more than 20 percent from a 34-month low on June 27 to meet the common definition of a bull market. Equities ◾Asian stocks fell as investors shied away from riskier assets after an unexpected drop in U.S. jobless claims fueled speculation the Federal Reserve will cut stimulus next month. Chinese shares reversed the biggest intraday surge since March 2009. ◾The MSCI Asia Pacific Index slid 0.5 percent to 134.23 as of 2:20 p.m. in Hong Kong, with all 10 industry groups on the gauge retreating. More than two shares dropped for each that rose. The measure is on course for a 0.2 percent gain this week. ◾European stocks were little changed, after the Stoxx Europe 600 Index dropped the most in more than five weeks yesterday, as investors awaited reports on the U.S. housing market. U.S. futures rose, while Asian shares fell. ◾The Stoxx 600 slipped 0.2 percent to 304.85 at 8:38 a.m. in London, extending its decline this week to 0.3 percent. Standard & Poor’s 500 Index futures added 0.3 percent, while the MSCI Asia Pacific Index retreated 0.2 percent. ◾U.S stocks fell the most since June as forecasts from Cisco Systems Inc. and Wal-Mart Stores Inc. disappointed while improving economic data pushed bond yields higher amid concern the Federal Reserve will reduce stimulus. ◾The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index slipped 1.4 percent, the most since June 20, to 1,661.32 at 4 p.m. in New York. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 225.47 points, or 1.5 percent, to 15,112.19, the lowest level since July 3. About 6.6 billion shares exchanged hands on U.S. exchanges today, 4.5 percent above the three-month average. Treasury yields rose to the highest levels in two years.
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Daily Technical Analysis from ACFX 08/16/2013 Daily Technical Analysis for EURUSD as at 16th August 2013 DAILY OVERVIEW Trend : Short Ambush Zone : - Target 1 : - Target 2 : - Stop : - Comments EURUSD is this morning trading lower from the open after yesterdays up day. Yesterday EURUSD experienced a positive day printing a bullish piercing line candle and in the process traded and closed above the downward sloping trend line and the 8 period moving averages. It would appear that EURUSD is attempting to print a higher swing low. We are monitoring the price action to see if the 8 period moving average will now act as support that will eventually lead EURUSD higher and into the direction of the last isolated high of the 8th August. In terms of the bigger picture the swing bias is negative. The following factors are confirming or reinforcing this market bias: 1. The swing bias is negative. 2. The price action is trading around the area of trend line resistance. 3. The RSI is confirming the move. 4. The weekly time frame is in gear with the daily time frame. Alternative counter trend bullish factors: 1. The averages have crossed positively. 2. The price action has broken above the 8 period moving averages. Scenario 1 As the dominant daily trend is down retracements into resistance could be viewed as selling opportunities Scenario 2 Alternatively as the price action is trading above the 8 period moving averages approaches back to this average could offer support and a buying area. Daily Technical Analysis for GBPUSD as at 16th August 2013 DAILY OVERVIEW Trend : Long Ambush Zone : - Target 1 : - Target 2 : - Stop : - Comments GBPUSD is this morning trading lower from the open after yesterdays up day. Yesterday GBPUSD experienced a strong up day and in the process printed a higher high and establishing a potential a potential higher low swing pivot. This price activity of course reinforces the prior change of trend to positive. Following the 8 period moving averages acting as a buying area we continue to monitor further pullbacks to this area as possible support point. In terms of the bigger the swing bias is positive. The following factors are confirming or reinforcing this market bias: 1. The swing bias has turned positive. 2. The price action is retracing to the positively layered averages which could offer a buying opportunity. 3. The averages have crossed positively. 4. The RSI is confirming the move. 5. The weekly time frame is in gear with the daily time frame. 6. The price action traded through the 1.5250 resistance level. Alternative counter trend bearish factors: 1. The moving averages are somewhat extended. Scenario 1 As the dominant daily trend is up retracements into support could be viewed as buying opportunities with the initial area of interest being the 8 period moving averages. Scenario 2 Alternatively the price action extended from the averages could offer short term shorting opportunities. Daily Technical Analysis for USDCHF as at 16th August 2013 DAILY OVERVIEW Trend : Short Ambush Zone : - Target 1 : - Target 2 : - Stop : - Comments USDCHF is this morning trading higher from the open after yesterdays down day Yesterday USDCHF found resistance at the 34 period moving averages. This area was highlighted in previous posts as an area of potential resistance. We are monitoring the price action at these levels to see if the negativity continues. However there is a potential support hurdles to be overcome at the 0.9200 and the upward sloping trend line. A breach of the 8th August low will need to happen so as to reinforce the negative bias. In terms of the bigger picture the swing bias is negative. The following factors are confirming or reinforcing this market bias: 1. The swing bias remains negative. 2. The weekly time frame continues to have a negative bias. 3. The RSI is in gear with the move. 4. The averages are negatively layered. Alternative counter trend bullish factors: 1. USDCHF has bounced off the 0.9200 level. 2. USDCHF has bounced of trend line support. Scenario 1 As the dominant daily trend is down corrective pullback could possibly offer shorting opportunities. Scenario 2 Alternatively support may potentially be found at the 8 period moving averages. This support could precede an extended move to the 34 period moving averages. Daily Technical Analysis for USDJPY as at 16th August 2013 DAILY OVERVIEW Trend : Short Ambush Zone : - Target 1 : - Target 2 : - Stop : - Comments USDJPY is this morning trading higher from the open after down up day. USDJPY yesterday traded up to the 34 period moving averages and as posted previously that it found strong resistance in this area was not a surprise. We are monitoring the potential for further negative rotation and return to the down trend. In terms of the bigger picture the swing bias is negative. The following factors are confirming or reinforcing this market bias: 1. The swing bias remains negative. 2. The moving averages have crossed negatively. 3. The price action has broken below the significant 100 level. 4. The RSI is confirming the move. 5. The price action has managed to break below the upward sloping trend line. 6. Fibonacci resistance is offering down side pressure. Alternative counter trend bullish factors: 1. The weekly time remains with a positive bias. 2. The price action is trading above the 8 period moving averages. Scenario 1 As the dominant daily trend is down retracements into resistance could be viewed as selling opportunities Scenario 2 Alternatively as the price action is trading above the 8 period moving averages there is the possibility of a corrective up move back to Fibonacci resistance and the 34 period moving averages. Daily Technical Analysis for Gold as at 16th August 2013 DAILY OVERVIEW Trend : Long Ambush Zone : - Target 1 : - Target 2 : - Stop : - Comments Gold is this morning trading unchanged from the open after yesterdays up day. Yesterday Gold breached the previous swing high and effectively changes the trend to positive by printing a bullish higher low and higher high sequence. In terms of the bigger picture the swing bias has reversed to positive. The following factors are confirming or reinforcing this market bias: 1. The swing bias is positive. 2. The price action has printed a higher low. 3. The moving averages are layered positively. 4. The price action is trading above the averages. 5. The price action is trading above the 1322 support level. 6. The RSI is in gear with the move. Alternative counter trend bearish factors: 1. The weekly time frame continues to point down. 2. The price action is trading within the Fibonacci resistance zone. 3. The price action is extended from the averages. Scenario 1 As the dominant daily trend is up corrective sideways to down movements could potentially be viewed as buying opportunities. Scenario 2 Alternatively the price action is extended from the averages which could offer shorting opportunities. Daily Technical Analysis for Oil (WTI) as at 16th August 2013 DAILY OVERVIEW Trend : Short Ambush Zone : - Target 1 : - Target 2 : - Stop : - Comments Oil is this morning trading higher from the open after yesterdays up day. Following Oils 8th August down spike that breached the prior swing low the price action has since bounced off the 34 and is now trading above the 8 period moving averages. Although the down spike has effectively turned the swing bias to negative the subsequent bullish reversal could indicate that break down was nothing more than a fake out. A breach of the prior swing high or swing low will confirm the bullish or bearish bias. In terms of the bigger picture the swing bias remains negative. The following factors are confirming or reinforcing this market bias: 1. The swing bias is negative. Alternative counter trend bullish factors: 1. The prior down spike has been reversed. 2. The price action is trading above the averages. 3. The averages are layered positively. 4. The price action is forming a possible corrective zigzag consolidation pattern. 5. The price action is trading above the large monthly converging triangle. 6. The weekly RSI diverging positively. Scenario 1 As the dominant daily trend is down retracements to resistance areas could possibly be viewed as selling opportunities. Scenario 2 Alternatively following the bounce off the 8th August down spike we are monitoring the possibility of a move to the 2nd August high.
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Daily Technical Analysis from ACFX 08/14/2013 Daily Technical Analysis for EURUSD as at 14th August 2013 DAILY OVERVIEW Trend : Short Ambush Zone : - Target 1 : - Target 2 : - Stop : - Comments EURUSD is this morning trading unchanged from the open after yesterdays down day. Yesterday EURUSD traded and closed under the downward sloping trend line and the 8 period moving averages. We are monitoring the price action to see if the 8 period moving average will now act as resistance that will eventually lead EURUSD lower and into the direction of the 34 period moving averages. In terms of the bigger picture the swing bias is negative. The following factors are confirming or reinforcing this market bias: 1. The swing bias is negative. 2. The price action has retraced and broken beneath the 8 period moving averages. 3. The price action is trading around the area of trend line resistance. 4. The RSI is confirming the move. 5. The weekly time frame is in gear with the daily time frame. Alternative counter trend bullish factors: 1. The averages have crossed positively. Scenario 1 As the dominant daily trend is down retracements into resistance could be viewed as selling opportunities Scenario 2 Alternatively as the price action is trading above the 8 period moving averages approaches back to this average could offer support and a buying area. Daily Technical Analysis for GBPUSD as at 14th August 2013 DAILY OVERVIEW Trend : Long Ambush Zone : - Target 1 : - Target 2 : - Stop : - Comments GBPUSD is this morning trading unchanged from the open after yesterdays down day. Following the breach of the prior swing high, the trend has turned positive. However further upward momentum is finding resistance on its approach to Fibonacci resistance. We are monitoring a potential move to the 8 period moving averages which could possibly offer support to a further up swing. In terms of the bigger the swing bias is positive. The following factors are confirming or reinforcing this market bias: 1. The swing bias has turned positive. 2. The price action is retracing to the positively layered averages which could offer a buying opportunity. 3. The averages have crossed positively. 4. The RSI is confirming the move. 5. The weekly time frame is in gear with the daily time frame. 6. The price action traded through the 1.5250 resistance level. Alternative counter trend bearish factors: 1. The moving averages are somewhat extended. Scenario 1 As the dominant daily trend is up retracements into support could be viewed as buying opportunities with the initial area of interest being the 8 period moving averages. Scenario 2 Alternatively the price action extended from the averages could offer short term shorting opportunities. Daily Technical Analysis for USDCHF as at 14th August 2013 DAILY OVERVIEW Trend : Short Ambush Zone : - Target 1 : - Target 2 : - Stop : - Comments USDCHF is this morning trading higher from the open after yesterdays up day The bounce off the 0.9200 area and trend line support has continued as USDCHF approaches the 34 period moving averages. We are monitoring the price action at these levels for any sign of negative rotation and resumption to the down trend. In terms of the bigger picture the swing bias is negative. The following factors are confirming or reinforcing this market bias: 1. The swing bias remains negative. 2. The weekly time frame continues to have a negative bias. 3. The RSI is in gear with the move. 4. The averages are negatively layered. Alternative counter trend bullish factors: 1. USDCHF has bounced off the 0.9200 level. 2. USDCHF has bounced of trend line support. Scenario 1 As the dominant daily trend is down the 8 period moving averages may possibly offer shorting opportunities. Scenario 2 Alternatively the current bounce off support could potentially move to the area of the 34 period moving averages. Daily Technical Analysis for USDJPY as at 14th August 2013 DAILY OVERVIEW Trend : Short Ambush Zone : - Target 1 : - Target 2 : - Stop : - Comments USDJPY is this morning trading higher from the open after yesterdays up day. USDJPY has experienced a strong bounce after a somewhat extended move down. Yesterday USDJPY closed above the 8 period moving averages and this positivity has continued into the European open. We are monitoring the potential for a negative rotation and return to the down trend in and around the area of the 34 period moving averages. In terms of the bigger picture the swing bias is negative. The following factors are confirming or reinforcing this market bias: 1. The swing bias remains negative. 2. The moving averages have crossed negatively. 3. The price action has broken below the significant 100 level. 4. The RSI is confirming the move. 5. The price action has managed to break below the upward sloping trend line. 6. Fibonacci resistance is offering down side pressure. Alternative counter trend bullish factors: 1. The weekly time remains with a positive bias. 2. The price action is trading above the 8 period moving averages. Scenario 1 As the dominant daily trend is down retracements into resistance could be viewed as selling opportunities Scenario 2 Alternatively as the price action is trading above the 8 period moving averages there is the possibility of a corrective up move back to Fibonacci resistance and the 34 period moving averages. Daily Technical Analysis for Gold as at 14th August 2013 DAILY OVERVIEW Trend : Short Ambush Zone : - Target 1 : - Target 2 : - Stop : - Comments Gold is this morning trading unchanged from the open after yesterdays down day. Gold is trading above the positively layered averages as this metal attempts to print a higher low swing. However the price action continues to trade within the Fibonacci resistance area and would require a swing high breach to confirm a reversal to an upside bias. In terms of the bigger picture the swing bias is negative. The following factors are confirming or reinforcing this market bias: 1. The swing bias is negative. 2. The price action is trading above the averages which could be viewed as an overbought opportunity. 3. The weekly time frame continues to point down. 4. The price action is trading within the Fibonacci resistance zone. 5. The RSI is diverging negatively. Alternative counter trend bullish factors: 1. The price action is attempting to print a higher low. 2. The moving averages are layered positively. 3. The price action is trading above the averages. 4. The price action is trading above the 1322 support level. Scenario 1 As the dominant daily trend is down as Fibonacci resistance may offer a shorting opportunity. Scenario 2 Alternatively retracements to the averages may potentially offer buying opportunities. Daily Technical Analysis for Oil (WTI) as at 14th August 2013 DAILY OVERVIEW Trend : Short Ambush Zone : - Target 1 : - Target 2 : - Stop : - Comments Oil is this morning trading unchanged from the open after yesterdays up day. Following Oils 8th August down spike that breached the prior swing low the price action has since bounced off the 34 and is now trading above the 8 period moving averages. Although the down spike has effectively turned the swing bias to negative the subsequent bullish reversal could indicate that break down was nothing more than a fake out. A breach of the prior swing high or swing low will confirm the bullish or bearish bias. In terms of the bigger picture the swing bias remains negative. The following factors are confirming or reinforcing this market bias: 1. The swing bias is negative. Alternative counter trend bullish factors: 1. The prior down spike has been reversed. 2. The price action is trading above the averages. 3. The averages are layered positively. 4. The price action is forming a possible corrective zigzag consolidation pattern. 5. The price action is trading above the large monthly converging triangle. 6. The weekly RSI diverging positively. Scenario 1 As the dominant daily trend is down retracements to resistance areas could possibly be viewed as selling opportunities. Scenario 2 Alternatively following the bounce off the 8th August down spike we are monitoring the possibility of a move to the 2nd August high.
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Daily Market Outlook from ACFX 08/13/2013 Important Financial Indicators of the day GBP - 11:30 (GMT) - CPI y/y - Forecast 2.8% - Previous 2.9% EUR - 12:00 (GMT) - German ZEW Economic Sentiment - Forecast 40.3 - Previous 36.3 USD - 15:30 (GMT) - Core Retail Sales m/m - Forecast 0.4% - Previous 0.0% USD - 15:30 (GMT) - Retail Sales m/m - Forecast 0.2% - Previous 0.4% Currencies ◾EUR/USD The dollar touched the highest in almost a week versus the yen before a report today that may show U.S. retail sales climbed for a fourth month. ◾The dollar rose 0.4 percent to 97.30 yen as of 1 p.m. in Tokyo after earlier touching 97.44, the strongest since Aug. 7. It fetched $1.3310 per euro, down 0.1 percent from yesterday. Japan’s currency slid 0.5 percent to 129.49 per euro. ◾AUD/USD Australia’s dollar fell for a second day before U.S. data that may show retail sales climbed, adding to the case for the Federal Reserve to taper monetary stimulus that tends to weaken the greenback. ◾Australia’s currency lost 0.4 percent to 91.14 U.S. cents as of 10:07 a.m. in Sydney from yesterday. The kiwi dollar dropped 0.5 percent to 79.76 U.S. cents. It posted a 2.6 percent weekly gain on Aug. 9, the most since December 2011 ◾USD/CAD Canada’s dollar declined for the first time in three days after it failed to breach a key technical level, a move that might have signaled gains beyond a one-week high it reached last week, spurring speculation the currency’s run of strength is at an end. ◾Canada’s currency depreciated 0.2 percent to C$1.0307 per U.S. dollar at 5 p.m. in Toronto after gaining earlier to C$1.0281. Its 100-day moving average is C$1.0279. It touched C$1.0276 on Aug. 9, the strongest level since Aug. 1. One Canadian dollar buys 97.02 U.S. cents. Commodities ◾Oil West Texas Intermediate crude traded near the highest price in five days amid speculation that U.S. stockpiles fell for the sixth time in seven weeks as summer driving buoyed demand. ◾WTI for September delivery was at $106.18 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange, up 7 cents at 12:20 p.m. Singapore time. The volume of all futures traded was 34 percent below the 100-day average. Prices have climbed 16 percent this year. ◾Brent for September settlement gained 2 cents to $108.99 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. The European benchmark crude was at a premium of $2.83 to WTI, from $2.86 yesterday. ◾Gold snapped a four-day advance as a rally to the highest level in almost three weeks damped demand and prompted some investors to sell. Silver declined. ◾Spot gold fell as much as 0.6 percent to $1,330.35 an ounce and was at $1,336.55 at 11:57 a.m. in Singapore. Bullion climbed 4.3 percent in the four days through yesterday, when it touched $1,344.40, the highest price since July 24. Equities ◾Asian stocksrose for a fourth day, with Japanese shares gaining after the yen weakened as a report showed machinery orders beat estimates and amid a report Prime Minister Shinzo Abe is considering a corporate-tax cut. ◾The MSCI Asia Pacific Index added 0.5 percent to 134.81 as of 11:39 a.m. in Hong Kong, with about three shares rising for each that fell. Nine of the 10 industry groups increased on the gauge, which is headed for its longest winning streak in six weeks. ◾European stocks closed little changed at a 10-week high as a rally in mining companies offset slower-than-forecast economic growth in Japan. ◾The Stoxx Europe 600 Index increased less than 0.1 percent to 306.08 at the close of trading, having earlier risen as much as 0.2 percent ad declined 0.6 percent. The benchmark gauge added 0.6 percent last week as better-than-forecast economic data in Europe and China outweighed concern that the Federal Reserve will reduce the pace of its bond-purchase program. The measure has rallied 9.4 percent . ◾U.S stocks fell, giving the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index to its fifth drop in six sessions, as data showed a slowdown in Japan’s economic growth and investors awaited tomorrow’s report on America’s retail sales. ◾The S&P 500 fell 0.1 percent to 1,689.47 at 4 p.m. in New York, extending its loss from a record high to 1.2 percent. The Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 5.83 points, or less than 0.1 percent, to 15,419.68. About 5 billion shares changed hands on U.S. exchanges, 20 percent below the three-month average.