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acfx

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  1. Here is new challenge for you! Now is time to guess USDCAD price tomorrow at 4 PM (GMT+2) by posting it in a comment below. The closest one will get $100 fully funded trading account! Like ACFX Facebook page, post the comment and share! Good luck!
  2. Daily Technical Analysis from ACFX 11/06/2013 Daily Technical Analysis for EURUSD as at 6th November 2013 DAILY OVERVIEW Trend : Down Ambush Zone : - Target 1 : - Target 2 : - Stop : - Comments Yesterday EURUSD traded lower but closed above the upward sloping trend line. This morning EURUSD is trading higher but within the previous two days range. A break above of or beneath the top or bottom of this range might indicate medium term market direction. In terms of the bigger picture following the breach of the 16th October prior isolated low has changed the daily trend from up to down. However the weekly time frame does continue to point up and the RSI is forming a positive divergence. As EURUSD has found support at the upward sloping trend line this and the other bullish factors mention could give the market the excuse it needs to trade higher. However unless the price action can take out a previous high the swing bias on the daily time frame will remain negative. Upside targets 1.3710, 1.3835 and 1.4250 all being previous isolated highs. Down side targets being the 6th September prior isolated low at 1.3104. Scenario 1 As the dominant daily trend is down retracements into resistance could be viewed as selling opportunities. Scenario 2 Alternatively as EURUSD is trading at trend line support there is a possibility of a corrective bounce. Daily Technical Analysis for GBPUSD as at 6th November 2013 DAILY OVERVIEW Trend : Long Ambush Zone : - Target 1 : - Target 2 : - Stop : - Comments Yesterday GBPUSD traded higher following its bounce off support. This positivity has continued into today’s session with the price action now trading up to the 34 period moving averages. On a daily swing bases GBPUSD continues to trend positively on both daily and weekly time frames. However the current price action would appear to be attempting to print a lower high. Therefore it is important for the health of the current uptrend that GBPUSD does note trade beneath the 16th October isolated low. That the RSI is diverging positively does give the long side some encouragement but it should be noted that the averages have crossed negatively for the first time since July 2013. Scenario 1 As the dominant daily trend is up retracements into support could be viewed as buying opportunities. Scenario 2 Alternatively as GBPUSD is trading within the 8/34 SMA resistance area there is a possibility that the price action rejects this level and trades back down to 1.5893 being a prior isolated low that was printed on 16th October. Daily Technical Analysis for USDCHF as at 6th November 2013 DAILY OVERVIEW Trend : Down Ambush Zone : - Target 1 : - Target 2 : - Stop : - Comments Yesterday failed to breach trend line resistance. Today’s session has so far been negative with today’s price action trading within the previous two days ranges. On a basis swing bases the trend continues to be negative. Furthermore USDCHF has now traded into Fibonacci resistance and a negative RSI divergence is forming. Therefore there is potential for negative rotation at these levels and a resumption of the down trend. The support and resistance areas on a weekly swing pivot basis being 0.9020 0.8930, 0.8570 and 0.9200. Scenario 1 As the dominant daily trend is down corrective pullbacks could possibly offer selling opportunities with retracements back to the averages, the prior pivot low and broken support being value areas where shorts could potentially be added. Scenario 2 Alternatively a breach of trend line resistance could see could see USDCHF trade towards the 16th October isolated high. Daily Technical Analysis for USDJPY as at 6th November 2013 DAILY OVERVIEW Trend : Short Ambush Zone : - Target 1 : - Target 2 : - Stop : - Comments Yesterday USDJPY traded away from the Fibonacci resistance area however the move down was limited and reversed at the 8 period moving averages. This morning USDJPY is trading higher and retesting the Fibonacci area. We have noticed that USDJPY experiencing a contraction of daily ranges which could be a sign that energy is building for a potential large break of the converging triangle formation. The trend on the daily time frame is pointing down but USDJPY has printed a higher high and the weekly time frame continues to be positive. These factors could potentially indicate that the break will be to the upside. Furthermore if USDJPY can breach 17th October isolated high will add further weight to the case for an upside break. However the overhead Fibonacci area that has offered good resistance will have to be overcome to allow for further upside with a failure to trade higher could see USDJPY trade back to trend line support. Scenario 1 As the dominant daily trend is down retracements into resistance could be viewed as selling opportunities Scenario 2 Alternatively the printing of a higher lower and with the price action now trading around the averages could prompt USDJPY to trade up to the 17th October isolated high. Daily Technical Analysis for Gold as at 6th November 2013 DAILY OVERVIEW Trend : Short Ambush Zone : - Target 1 : - Target 2 : - Stop : - Comments Yesterday Gold continued to trade within a tight range and this price action has continued into this morning’s session. On a daily both a daily and weekly swing basis Gold is trading negatively. Scenario 1 As the dominant daily trend is down corrective sideways to up movements could potentially be viewed as selling opportunities. Scenario 2 Alternatively long scalping opportunities might arise as the price action become extended from the averages. Daily Technical Analysis for Oil (WTI) as at 6th November 2013 DAILY OVERVIEW Trend : Short Ambush Zone : - Target 1 : - Target 2 : - Stop : - Comments Yesterday Oil continued to trade and closed lower. This morning’s open has been quiet thus far. The trend on a daily swing bias is short with the averages and the RSI confirming this direction. However as the weekly time frame remains positive the below congestion area might prove to be a strong support area. Scenario 1 As the dominant daily trend is down retracements up to resistance such as the averages areas could possibly be viewed as selling opportunities. Scenario 2 Alternatively one could possibly take scalp longs up to the averages.
  3. Guess the EURUSD price by the same time as this post tomorrow to win $100 fully funded trading account. Comment with your expected price for the EURUSD on this post and tomorrow the closest guess in the comments will win a $100 no deposit bonus account. Visit our Facebook page for more information.
  4. Daily Technical Analysis from ACFX 11/04/2013 Daily Technical Analysis for EURUSD as at 4th November 2013 DAILY OVERVIEW Trend : Down Ambush Zone : - Target 1 : - Target 2 : - Stop : - Comments On Friday EURUSD traded much lower as it broke down from trend line support and the 34 period moving averages. This morning EURUSD traded down to a lower trend line where buying came into the market. However this morning’s moves lower has breached the 16th October prior isolated low. This breach has effectively changed the daily trend from up to down. That the weekly time frame does continue to point up and the RSI is forming a positive divergence and with the price action this morning bouncing off support could give the market the excuse to bounce further. However unless the price action can take out a previous high the swing bias on the daily time frame will remain negative. Upside targets 1.3710, 1.3835 and 1.4250 all being previous isolated highs. Down side targets being the 6th September prior isolated low at 1.3104. Scenario 1 As the dominant daily trend is down retracements into resistance could be viewed as selling opportunities. Scenario 2 Alternatively as EURUSD is trading at trend line support there is a possibility of a corrective bounce. Daily Technical Analysis for GBPUSD as at 4th November 2013 DAILY OVERVIEW Trend : Long Ambush Zone : - Target 1 : - Target 2 : - Stop : - Comments On Friday GBPUSD traded much lower as it broke down from the 34 period moving averages and trend line support. This morning GBPUSD is making an attempt to breach the 16th October isolated low which would effectively change the trend to short. The moving averages have also crossed negatively which is an indication that the trend may change. However the RSI continues to for a positive divergence. On a daily swing bases GBPUSD continues to trend positively on both daily and weekly time frames. However the current price action would appear to be attempting to print a lower high. Therefore it is important for the health of the current uptrend for the price action to not trade beneath the 16th October isolated low. Furthermore if GBPUSD can trade above the isolated highs of the 23rd and 1st October then the 1.6400 target level that coincides with a prior weekly pivot high will come back into play. Scenario 1 As the dominant daily trend is up retracements into support could be viewed as buying opportunities. Scenario 2 Alternatively as there has been a breach of trend line there is a possibility of a move down to 1.5893 being a prior isolated low that was printed on 16th October. Daily Technical Analysis for USDCHF as at 4th November 2013 DAILY OVERVIEW Trend : Down Ambush Zone : - Target 1 : - Target 2 : - Stop : - Comments On Friday USDCHF traded much higher as it broke away from the 34 period moving averages. This morning USDCHF is trading towards the downward sloping trend line. On a basis swing bases the trend continues to be negative. Furthermore USDCHF has now traded into Fibonacci resistance and a negative RSI divergence is forming. Therefore there is potential for negative rotation at these levels and a resumption of the down trend. The support and resistance areas on a weekly swing pivot basis being 0.9020 0.8930, 0.8570 and 0.9200. Scenario 1 As the dominant daily trend is down corrective pullbacks could possibly offer selling opportunities with retracements back to the averages, the prior pivot low and broken support being value areas where shorts could potentially be added. Scenario 2 Alternatively the breach of the 34 period moving averages could see USDCHF trade towards trend line resistance. Daily Technical Analysis for USDJPY as at 1st November 2013 DAILY OVERVIEW Trend : Short Ambush Zone : - Target 1 : - Target 2 : - Stop : - Comments On Friday USDJPY attempt to trade into Fibonacci resistance but ultimately failed to close inside this area. This morning’s open has been very quiet. As USDJPY has printed a higher low if the price action can now trade above the isolated high of the 17th October the swing bias will change to positive. However the current swing bias on the daily chart continues to be negative and this is confirmed by the negatively layered averages and downside pressure offered by Fibonacci resistance. In terms of the bigger picture USDJPY continues to trade within a converging triangle. However the breach of the 96.80 level coincides with a prior swing low. This breach of this pivot has effectively changed the trend to short on a swing basis. However the trend change to down maybe limited due to the strength of the uptrend’s that can be found in both Monthly and Weekly time frames. Therefore breaks of the converging triangle formation should be treated with care and possibly entered after further confirmation is received. Scenario 1 As the dominant daily trend is down retracements into resistance could be viewed as selling opportunities Scenario 2 Alternatively the printing of a higher lower and with the price action now trading around the averages could prompt USDJPY to trade up to the 17th October isolated high. Daily Technical Analysis for Gold as at 4th November 2013 DAILY OVERVIEW Trend : Short Ambush Zone : - Target 1 : - Target 2 : - Stop : - Comments Gold on Friday continued to trade lower as it resumed with the prior down trend. This morning Gold has opened quietly and within Fridays range. On a daily both a daily and weekly swing basis Gold is trading negatively. Scenario 1 As the dominant daily trend is down corrective sideways to up movements could potentially be viewed as selling opportunities. Scenario 2 Alternatively long scalping opportunities might arise as the price action become extended from the averages. Daily Technical Analysis for Oil (WTI) as at 4th November 2013 DAILY OVERVIEW Trend : Short Ambush Zone : - Target 1 : - Target 2 : - Stop : - Comments Oil on Friday broke the 95.50 support level and is now trading within a large prior congestion area. The trend on a daily swing bias is short with the averages and the RSI confirming this direction. However as the weekly time frame remains positive the below congestion area might prove to be a strong support area. Scenario 1 As the dominant daily trend is down retracements up to resistance such as the averages areas could possibly be viewed as selling opportunities. Scenario 2 Alternatively one could possibly take scalp longs up to the averages.
  5. Daily Technical Analysis from ACFX 11/01/2013 Daily Technical Analysis for EURUSD as at 1st November 2013 DAILY OVERVIEW Trend : Long Ambush Zone : - Target 1 : - Target 2 : - Stop : - Comments Yesterday EURUSD traded aggressively lower as it broke through trend line support and finally closing at the 34 period moving averages. Yesterday’s negativity has followed through to this morning’s session with EURUSD opening and trading beneath the 34 period moving average and deep into Fibonacci support. After such a strong move down, the obvious focus goes onto the 16th October prior isolated low with. A move beneath this level will turn the daily swing bias to negativity. This scenario alone could give impetus for further down side movement. However there appears to be a RSI positive divergence forming which would indicate that this corrective down move could lose momentum. This could lead the price action to flipping back up to the long side. The obvious question being do you start taking nibbles on the upside now or follow the market down to the support areas mentioned. In terms of the daily trend the swing bias continues to be positive and this direction is being confirmed on the weekly time frame. Upside targets 1.3710, 1.3835 and 1.4250 all being previous isolated highs. Down side targets being the 16th October prior isolated low at 1.3470. Scenario 1 As the dominant daily trend is up retracements into support could be viewed as buying opportunities. Scenario 2 Alternatively as EURUSD is trading beneath the 34 period moving averages and the 1.3710 support level there is a possibility that the price action will correct further to the 16th October prior isolated low. Daily Technical Analysis for USDCHF as at 1st November 2013 DAILY OVERVIEW Trend : Down Ambush Zone : - Target 1 : - Target 2 : - Stop : - Comments Yesterday USDCHF experienced a stellar up day as it trade up and closed above the 34 period moving averages. This morning USDCHF has opened positively and we are now monitoring the potential for a move to trend line resistance. On a basis swing bases the trend continues to be negative. Furthermore USDCHF has now traded into Fibonacci resistance and a negative RSI divergence is forming. Therefore there is potential for negative rotation at these levels and a resumption of the down trend. The support and resistance areas on a weekly swing pivot basis being 0.9020 0.8930, 0.8570 and 0.9200. Scenario 1 As the dominant daily trend is down corrective pullbacks could possibly offer selling opportunities with retracements back to the averages, the prior pivot low and broken support being value areas where shorts could potentially be added. Scenario 2 Alternatively the breach of the 34 period moving averages could see USDCHF trade towards trend line resistance. Daily Technical Analysis for USDJPY as at 1st November 2013 DAILY OVERVIEW Trend : Short Ambush Zone : - Target 1 : - Target 2 : - Stop : - Comments USDJPY yesterday failed to trade into Fibonacci resistance. This failure has followed through into this morning’s session with USDJPY trading lower. We are monitoring the price action to see if a potential down move can be held at trend line support. Furthermore as USDJPY has printed a higher low if the price action can now trade above the isolated high of the 17th October the swing bias will change to positive. However the current swing bias on the daily chart continues to be negative and this is confirmed by the negatively layered averages and downside pressure offered by Fibonacci resistance. In terms of the bigger picture USDJPY continues to trade within a converging triangle. However the breach of the 96.80 level coincides with a prior swing low. This breach of this pivot has effectively changed the trend to short on a swing basis. However the trend change to down maybe limited due to the strength of the uptrend’s that can be found in both Monthly and Weekly time frames. Therefore breaks of the converging triangle formation should be treated with care and possibly entered after further confirmation is received. Scenario 1 As the dominant daily trend is down retracements into resistance could be viewed as selling opportunities Scenario 2 Alternatively the printing of a higher lower and with the price action now trading around the averages could prompt USDJPY to trade up to the 17th October isolated high. Daily Technical Analysis for Gold as at 1st November 2013 DAILY OVERVIEW Trend : Short Ambush Zone : - Target 1 : - Target 2 : - Stop : - Comments Following the corrective rally Gold yesterday resumed its down trend by trading aggressively lower. This morning Gold has had thus far a very quiet open. On a daily both a daily and weekly swing basis Gold is trading negatively. Scenario 1 As the dominant daily trend is down corrective sideways to up movements could potentially be viewed as selling opportunities. Scenario 2 Alternatively long scalping opportunities might arise as the price action become extended from the averages. Daily Technical Analysis for Oil (WTI) as at 1st November 2013 DAILY OVERVIEW Trend : Short Ambush Zone : - Target 1 : - Target 2 : - Stop : - Comments Oil has traded lower following its correction and touch of the 8 period moving averages. Yesterday Oil continued with the downward momentum albeit at a slower pace. This morning the price action has opened positively. With the last isolated low of the 24th October being at the 95.93 Oil will need to breach of this level to continue with the down move. However Oil is now trading into a large weekly congestion area at around the 95.50 area therefore this support area needs to be overcome. The trend on a daily swing bias is short with the averages and the RSI confirming this direction. However as the weekly time frame remains positive the below congestion area might prove to be a strong support area. Scenario 1 As the dominant daily trend is down retracements up to resistance such as the averages areas could possibly be viewed as selling opportunities. Scenario 2 Alternatively one could possibly take scalp longs up to the averages.
  6. Daily Technical Analysis from ACFX 10/31/2013 Daily Technical Analysis for EURUSD as at 31st October 2013 DAILY OVERVIEW Trend : Long Ambush Zone : - Target 1 : - Target 2 : - Stop : - Comments Yesterday EURUSD opened and closed under the 8 period moving averages and this negativity has continued this morning with a breach of the 1.3710 support are. With support being in the area of trend line and 34 period moving averages it would not be unexpected to see the price action trading down to these levels. A move to this area would also coincide with 50 to 61.8 Fibonacci support area. However there appears to be a RSI positive divergence forming which would indicate that this corrective down move could lose momentum. This could lead the price action to flipping back up to the long side. The obvious question being do you start taking nibbles on the upside now or follow the market down to the support areas mentioned. In terms of the daily trend the swing bias continues to be positive and this direction is being confirmed on the weekly time frame. Upside targets 1.3710, 1.3835 and 1.4250 all being previous isolated highs. Scenario 1 As the dominant daily trend is up retracements into support could be viewed as buying opportunities. Scenario 2 Alternatively as EURUSD is trading beneath the 8 period moving averages and the 1.3710 support level there is a possibility that the price action will correct further with targets being the area of trend line and 34 period moving averages. Daily Technical Analysis for GBPUSD as at 31st October 2013 DAILY OVERVIEW Trend : Long Ambush Zone : - Target 1 : - Target 2 : - Stop : - Comments Yesterday GBPUSD opened and closed beneath the 34 period moving averages and trend line support. This morning the price action is now trading deep into Fibonacci support. GBPUSD does continue to trade above the prior isolated low. Furthermore GBPUSD is now trading within the previous day’s range and a positive RSI divergence is forming. This may indicate that this squeeze in volatility will lead to an upside pop. However with the price action now printing a double top and trading beneath two broken trend lines there is also a probability that an attempt is made to breach the 16th October isolated low. On an intraday basis the H1 (1 hour) chart seems to be putting in a double bottom. Our focus for the time being is 1.6077 and 1.5997 being the previous day’s High and low with a breach of these levels potential indicating the today’s market direction. On a daily swing bases GBPUSD continues to trend positively on both daily and weekly time frames. However the current price action would appear to be attempting to print a lower high. Therefore it is important for the health of the current uptrend for the price action to not trade beneath the 16th October isolated low. Furthermore if GBPUSD can trade above the isolated highs of the 23rd and 1st October then the 1.6400 target level that coincides with a prior weekly pivot high will come back into play. Scenario 1 As the dominant daily trend is up retracements into support could be viewed as buying opportunities. Scenario 2 Alternatively as there has been a breach of trend line there is a possibility of a move down to 1.5893 being a prior isolated low that was printed on 16th October. Daily Technical Analysis for USDCHF as at 31st October 2013 DAILY OVERVIEW Trend : Down Ambush Zone : - Target 1 : - Target 2 : - Stop : - Comments Following the printing of two bullish hammers at the 0.8930 level USDCHF has experienced a good corrective retracement past the 8 period moving averages. This morning USDCHF continues to trade higher. As the price action is now trading above the 8 period moving average value areas we are monitoring developments for signs of negative rotation that will push USDCHF back to the 0.8930 level. However yesterday USDCHF did try to breach the 0.9020 level and a further attempt was made this morning. If USDCHF can overcome this level then the next target is the 34 period moving averages. On a swing bases the trend continues to be negative with support areas on a weekly swing pivot basis being 0.8930 and 0.8570 areas. Scenario 1 As the dominant daily trend is down corrective pullbacks could possibly offer selling opportunities with retracements back to the averages, the prior pivot low and broken support being value areas where shorts could potentially be added. Scenario 2 Alternatively a breach of the 0.9020 level could see USDCHF trade up to the 34 period moving averages. Daily Technical Analysis for USDJPY as at 31st October 2013 DAILY OVERVIEW Trend : Short Ambush Zone : - Target 1 : - Target 2 : - Stop : - Comments Following the bounce off trend line support yesterday USDJPY traded higher and into the 34 period moving averages. This morning the price action opened negatively but continues to trade above this technical indicator. With USDJPY printing a higher low if the price action can now trade above the isolated high of the 17th October the swing bias will change to positive. However the current swing bias on the daily chart continues to be negative and this is confirmed by the negatively layered averages and downside pressure offered by Fibonacci resistance. In terms of the bigger picture USDJPY continues to trade within a converging triangle. However the breach of the 96.80 level coincides with a prior swing low. This breach of this pivot has effectively changed the trend to short on a swing basis. However the trend change to down maybe limited due to the strength of the uptrend’s that can be found in both Monthly and Weekly time frames. Therefore breaks of the converging triangle formation should be treated with care and possible entered after further confirmation is received. Scenario 1 As the dominant daily trend is down retracements into resistance could be viewed as selling opportunities Scenario 2 Alternatively the printing of a higher lower and with the price action now trading above the 34 period moving averages could prompt USDJPY to trade up to the 17th October isolated high.
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  8. ACFX needs help designing our Halloween mascot so we are glad to announce the ACFX Trick and Treat contest. The contest is free and open to all participants. To participate all you have to do is create a mascot for ACFX brand (can be hand drawn or digitally designed) and submit your mascot to our Facebook page or to [email protected] by the 31/10/2013 at the latest. All eligible mascots will be posted in a public album on our Facebook page. The mascot design with the most likes by 04/11/2013, will win the contest allowing designer to enjoy a free $500 no deposit credit bonus (can be converted to balance). To be eligible mascot should portray ACFX brand personality such as innovation, wealth, creativity, honesty, originality and transparency. Winner will be officially announced after voting is closed on the 04/11/2013.
  9. Daily Technical Analysis from ACFX 10/29/2013 Daily Technical Analysis for EURUSD as at 29th October 2013 DAILY OVERVIEW Trend : Long Ambush Zone : - Target 1 : - Target 2 : - Stop : - Comments Yesterday EURUSD traded within the previous 2 days range as the price action consolidated at the highs of this strong up thrust. This morning we are seeing EURUSD trade back to the 8 period moving averages which is a potential value area where long positions could be entered. If this current level fails to hold support then the next value area is the 1.3710 level being a prior broken significant resistance level. The breach of the 1.3710 level now puts into play a possible move to the 1.4250 area being last obvious isolated high on both daily and weekly charts. In the short term the next obvious resistance level is the 1.3835 being a prior weekly isolated low. A further advance will of course take EURUSD into a broad area of resistance that coincides with the 2011 highs. In terms of the daily trend the swing bias continues to be positive and this direction is being confirmed on the weekly time frame. Furthermore the averages layered positively and the RSI is in gear with the trend. Scenario 1 As the dominant daily trend is up retracements into support could be viewed as buying opportunities. Scenario 2 Alternatively as the price action is extended from the averages there may be a possibility of short scalping opportunities with potential targets being the 1.3710 level. Daily Technical Analysis for GBPUSD as at 29th October 2013 DAILY OVERVIEW Trend : Long Ambush Zone : - Target 1 : - Target 2 : - Stop : - Comments Yesterday GBPUSD closed beneath both the 8 period moving averages and trend line support. This morning GBPUSD attempted to breach the 34 period moving averages only for support to come into the market and push the price action higher. I have now drawn a secondary trend line which connects most significant pivot points. On a swing bases GBPUSD continues to trend positively on both daily and weekly time frames. However the current price action would appear to be attempting to print a lower high. Therefore it is important for the health of the current uptrend for the price action to not trade beneath the 16th October isolated low. Furthermore if GBPUSD can trade above the isolated highs of the 23rd and 1st October then the 1.6400 target level that coincides with a prior weekly pivot high will come back into play. Scenario 1 As the dominant daily trend is up retracements into support could be viewed as buying opportunities. Scenario 2 Alternatively a breach of trend line support could see GBPUSD trade down to 1.5893 being a prior isolated low that was printed on 16th October. Daily Technical Analysis for USDCHF as at 29th October 2013 DAILY OVERVIEW Trend : Down Ambush Zone : - Target 1 : - Target 2 : - Stop : - Comments USDCHF has now printed two bullish hammers at the 0.8930 level. Yesterday USDCHF was propelled higher from this level and into the 8 period moving averages. This morning USDCHF is trading slightly higher. As the price action is now trading at the 8 period moving average value areas we are monitoring developments for signs of negative rotation that will push USDCHF back to the 0.8930 level. On a swing bases the trend continues to be negative with support areas on a weekly swing pivot basis being 0.8930 and 0.8570 areas. Scenario 1 As the dominant daily trend is down corrective pullbacks could possibly offer selling opportunities with retracements back to the averages, the prior pivot low and broken support being value areas where shorts could potentially be added. Scenario 2 Alternatively a breach of the 8 period moving averages could see USDCHF trade up to the 34 period moving averages. Daily Technical Analysis for USDJPY as at 29th October 2013 DAILY OVERVIEW Trend : Short Ambush Zone : - Target 1 : - Target 2 : - Stop : - Comments Following the bounce off trend line support yesterday USDJPY traded higher and into the 8 period moving averages. This morning the price action opened negatively at this level. This is significant as the 8 period moving averages could be considered a good area of both support and resistance. With this in mind the question is can USDJPY break down with significant force so as to validate to the short side the large converging triangle that has been forming since the May high or will triangle bottom act once again as strong support. In terms of the bigger picture USDJPY continues to trade within a converging triangle. However the breach of the 96.80 level coincides with a prior swing low. This breach of this pivot has effectively changed the trend to short on a swing basis. However the trend change to down maybe limited due to the strength of the uptrend’s that can be found in both Monthly and Weekly time frames. Therefore breaks of the converging triangle formation should be treated with care and possible entered after further confirmation is received. Scenario 1 As the dominant daily trend is down retracements into resistance could be viewed as selling opportunities Scenario 2 Alternatively buying opportunities may arise at converging triangle trend line support.
  10. Daily Technical Analysis from ACFX 10/25/2013 Daily Technical Analysis for EURUSD as at 25th October 2013 DAILY OVERVIEW Trend : Long Ambush Zone : - Target 1 : - Target 2 : - Stop : - Comments Yesterday EURUSD traded higher and away from the now broken key 1.3710 resistance level. This morning we are seeing some initial buying pressure with EURUSD printing a new high. We are monitoring the price action so as to see if EURUSD can continue its advance. The breach of the 1.3710 level now puts into play a possible move to the 1.4250 area being last obvious isolated high on both daily and weekly charts. In the short term the next obvious resistance level is the 1.3835 being a prior weekly isolated low. A further advance will of course take EURUSD into a broad area of resistance that coincides with the 2011 highs. In terms of the daily trend the swing bias continues to be positive and this direction is being confirmed on the weekly time frame. Furthermore the averages layered positively and the RSI is in gear with the trend. Scenario 1 As the dominant daily trend is up retracements into support could be viewed as buying opportunities. However after such a strong impulse move there is further potential for EURUSD to continue to trade above daily and minor 4 and 1 hour isolated high pivots. Scenario 2 Alternatively as the price action is extended from the averages there may be a possibility of short scalping opportunities with potential targets being the 1.3710 level and then the averages. Daily Technical Analysis for GBPUSD as at 25th October 2013 DAILY OVERVIEW Trend : Long Ambush Zone : - Target 1 : - Target 2 : - Stop : - Comments Yesterday GBPUSD closed higher but within the range of the prior two sessions. This morning so far the price action is similar to yesterdays. It would appear that GBPUSD is being squeezed on all sides by resistance and support areas. The questions are 1. Will GBPUSD break resistance or support first? 2. Once broken can this currency pair maintain the move. On a swing bases GBPUSD continues to trend positively on both daily and weekly time frames following the bounce off both trend line and the 34 period moving averages support. If GBPUSD can continue with its upward bias there is a possibility that the 1.6400 area is challenged. This level coincides with a prior weekly pivot high. The long bias is reinforced by the RSI and the moving averages confirming the swing direction however as the price action is now extended from the averages the possibility of down to sideways corrective action should not be discounted. Scenario 1 As the dominant daily trend is up retracements into support could be viewed as buying opportunities. Scenario 2 Alternatively as the price action is extended from the averages there is a possibility of corrective down to sideways action down to the averages. Daily Technical Analysis for USDCHF as at 25th October 2013 DAILY OVERVIEW Trend : Down Ambush Zone : - Target 1 : - Target 2 : - Stop : - Comments Having breached both 0.9020 and 0.8930 support levels yesterday USDCHF printed a bullish hammer candle. As the price action is extended from the averages there is a possibility that USDCHF experiences an up to sideways correction. On a swing bases the trend continues to be negative with the next support area on a weekly swing pivot basis being at the 0.8570 area. Scenario 1 As the dominant daily trend is down corrective pullbacks could possibly offer selling opportunities with retracements back to the averages, the prior pivot low and broken support being value areas where shorts could potentially be added. Scenario 2 Alternatively USDCHF is becoming increasing extended from the averages. This sets up the possibility of a corrective sideways to up corrective pullback. Daily Technical Analysis for USDJPY as at 25th October 2013 DAILY OVERVIEW Trend : Short Ambush Zone : - Target 1 : - Target 2 : - Stop : - Comments Yesterday USDJPY experienced a brief pause as it printed a narrow range day. However this morning USDJPY has continued with it’s down trend with the price action having touched the converging triangle support. We are now monitoring the price action to see if USDJPY will either bounce off this level or break lower. In terms of the bigger picture USDJPY continues to trade within a converging triangle. However the breach of the 96.80 level coincides with a prior swing low. This breach of this pivot has effectively changed the trend to short on a swing basis. However the trend change to down maybe limited due to the strength of the uptrend’s that can be found in both Monthly and Weekly time frames. Therefore breaks of the converging triangle formation should be treated with care and possible entered after further confirmation is received. Scenario 1 As the dominant daily trend is down retracements into resistance could be viewed as selling opportunities Scenario 2 Alternatively buying opportunities may arise at converging triangle trend line support.
  11. Daily Technical Analysis from ACFX 10/24/2013 Daily Technical Analysis for EURUSD as at 24th October 2013 DAILY OVERVIEW Trend : Long Ambush Zone : - Target 1 : - Target 2 : - Stop : - Comments Following the break of the key 1.3710 resistance level yesterday EURUSD struggle to make any further advances as it closed near the high of Tuesday’s candle. This morning we are seeing some initial buying pressure come into the market as EURUSD trades above Tuesday’s candle. The breach of the 1.3710 level now puts into play a possible move to the 1.4250 area being last obvious isolated high on both daily and weekly charts. In the short term the next obvious resistance level is the 1.3835 being a prior weekly isolated low. A further advance will of course take EURUSD into a broad area of resistance that coincides with the 2011 highs. In terms of the daily trend the swing bias continues to be positive and this direction is being confirmed on the weekly time frame. Furthermore the averages layered positively and the RSI is in gear with the trend. Scenario 1 As the dominant daily trend is up retracements into support could be viewed as buying opportunities. However after such a strong impulse move there is further potential for EURUSD to continue to trade above daily and minor 4 and 1 hour isolated high pivots. Scenario 2 Alternatively as the price action is extended from the averages there may be a possibility of short scalping opportunities with potential targets being the 1.3710 level and then the averages. Daily Technical Analysis for GBPUSD as at 24th October 2013 DAILY OVERVIEW Trend : Long Ambush Zone : - Target 1 : - Target 2 : - Stop : - Comments Yesterday after initially trying to trade above trend line resistance GBPUSD lost upward moment and eventually traded beneath the previous day’s close. However by the end of the session GBPUSD did manage to pair some of its losses and closed above yesterdays open. This morning the positive close to yesterday’s session has continued with GBPUSD trading higher. We are monitoring GBPUSD for a possible further push above trend line resistance. On a swing bases GBPUSD continues to trend positively on both daily and weekly time frames following the bounce off both trend line and the 34 period moving averages support. If GBPUSD can continue with its upward bias there is a possibility that the 1.6400 area is challenged. This level coincides with a prior weekly pivot high. The long bias is reinforced by the RSI and the moving averages confirming the swing direction however as the price action is now extended from the averages the possibility of down to sideways corrective action should not be discounted. Scenario 1 As the dominant daily trend is up retracements into support could be viewed as buying opportunities. Scenario 2 Alternatively as the price action is extended from the averages there is a possibility of corrective down to sideways action down to the averages. Daily Technical Analysis for USDCHF as at 24th October 2013 DAILY OVERVIEW Trend : Down Ambush Zone : - Target 1 : - Target 2 : - Stop : - Comments Following the breach of the 0.9020 level yesterday USDCHF also broke the 0.8930 support level. On a swing bases the trend continues to be negative with the next support area on a weekly swing pivot basis being at the 0.8570 area. Scenario 1 As the dominant daily trend is down corrective pullbacks could possibly offer selling opportunities with retracements back to the averages, the prior pivot low and broken support being value areas where shorts could potentially be added. Scenario 2 Alternatively USDCHF is becoming increasing extended from the averages. This sets up the possibility of a corrective sideways to up corrective pullback. Daily Technical Analysis for USDJPY as at 23rd October 2013 DAILY OVERVIEW Trend : Short Ambush Zone : - Target 1 : - Target 2 : - Stop : - Comments Yesterday USDJPY traded down to the area near the bottom of converging triangle support. This morning we are seeing some initial strength at this level. We are awaiting the open of the London session for confirmation that USDJPY can trade higher. In terms of the bigger picture USDJPY continues to trade within a converging triangle. However the breach of the 96.80 level coincides with a prior swing low. This breach of this pivot has effectively changed the trend to short on a swing basis. However the trend change to down maybe limited due to the strength of the uptrend’s that can be found in both Monthly and Weekly time frames. Therefore breaks of the converging triangle formation should be treated with care and possible entered after further confirmation is received. Scenario 1 As the dominant daily trend is down retracements into resistance could be viewed as selling opportunities Scenario 2 Alternatively buying opportunities may arise at converging triangle trend line support.
  12. Daily Technical Analysis from ACFX 10/23/2013 Daily Technical Analysis for EURUSD as at 23rd October 2013 DAILY OVERVIEW Trend : Long Ambush Zone : - Target 1 : - Target 2 : - Stop : - Comments Yesterday EURUSD broke through and closed well above the key 1.3710 resistance level. This breach now puts into play a possible move to the 1.4250 area being last obvious isolated high on both daily and weekly charts. In the short term the next obvious resistance level is the 1.3835 being a prior weekly isolated low. A further advance will of course take EURUSD into a broad area of resistance that coincides with the 2011 highs. This morning EURUSD has opened negatively which is not a surprise as the price action is now very extended from its averages. We are monitoring the possibility of further corrective down to sideways movement however a break above yesterdays high could potentially indicate a further strong appreciation in EURUSD. In terms of the daily trend the swing bias continues to be positive and this direction is being confirmed on the weekly time frame. Furthermore the averages layered positively and the RSI is in gear with the trend. Scenario 1 As the dominant daily trend is up retracements into support could be viewed as buying opportunities. However after such a strong impulse move there is further potential for EURUSD to continue to trade above daily and minor 4 and 1 hour isolated high pivots. Scenario 2 Alternatively as the price action is extended from the averages there may be a possibility of short scalping opportunities with potential targets being the 1.3710 level and then the averages. Daily Technical Analysis for GBPUSD as at 23rd October 2013 DAILY OVERVIEW Trend : Long Ambush Zone : - Target 1 : - Target 2 : - Stop : - Comments Yesterday GBPUSD traded higher but failed to close above trend line resistance. This morning GBPUSD attempted to continue with the upward momentum but ultimately this move above the trend line resistance also failed. Subsequently GBPUSD has traded lower. However this retracement has thus far not reversed all of yesterday gains with the pullback pairing some 60% of the up thrust if taken from the bottom of yesterday’s lows. This of course is a potential obvious Fibonacci support level. On a swing bases GBPUSD continues to trend positively on both daily and weekly time frames following the bounce off both trend line and the 34 period moving averages support. If GBPUSD can continue with its upward bias there is a possibility that the 1.6400 area is challenged. This level coincides with a prior weekly pivot high. The long bias is reinforced by the RSI and the moving averages confirming the swing direction however as the price action is now extended from the averages the possibility of down to sideways corrective action should not be discounted. Scenario 1 As the dominant daily trend is up retracements into support could be viewed as buying opportunities. Scenario 2 Alternatively as the price action is extended from the averages there is a possibility of corrective down to sideways action down to the averages. Daily Technical Analysis for USDCHF as at 23rd October 2013 DAILY OVERVIEW Trend : Down Ambush Zone : - Target 1 : - Target 2 : - Stop : - Comments Yesterday USDCHF broke down aggressively from the 0.9020 support. This morning the 0.8930 support level is in play as the price action hovers above this area. On a swing bases the trend continues to be negative with support areas being 0.9020 and 0.8930. Scenario 1 As the dominant daily trend is down corrective pullbacks could possibly offer selling opportunities with retracements back to the averages, the prior pivot low and broken support being value areas where shorts could potentially be added. Scenario 2 Alternatively USDCHF could potentially bounce off the 0.8930 area and trade back up to 0.9020. Daily Technical Analysis for USDJPY as at 23rd October 2013 DAILY OVERVIEW Trend : Short Ambush Zone : - Target 1 : - Target 2 : - Stop : - Comments Yesterday USDJPY continued to hug the moving averages whilst trading beneath Fibonacci resistance. This morning USDJPY has traded strongly down from this area and is approaching the bottom of the converging triangle. In terms of the bigger picture USDJPY continues to trade within a converging triangle formation but is now retracing and trading higher following the breach of the 96.80 level which coincided with a prior swing low. This breach of this pivot has effectively changed the trend to short on a swing basis. However trend change to down maybe limited due to the strength of the uptrend’s that can be found in both Monthly and Weekly time frames. Therefore breaks of the converging triangle formation should be treated with care and possible entered after further confirmation is received. Scenario 1 As the dominant daily trend is down retracements into resistance could be viewed as selling opportunities Scenario 2 Alternatively a move above the converging triangle opens up a possibility of buying USDJPY with the view of participating in a large linear uptrend.
  13. Daily Technical Analysis from ACFX 10/22/2013 Daily Technical Analysis for EURUSD as at 22nd October 2013 DAILY OVERVIEW Trend : Long Ambush Zone : - Target 1 : - Target 2 : - Stop : - Comments Yesterday closed near to its open and under the key resistance level. This morning open has thus far been negative as EURUSD trades away from the 1.3710 level. In terms of the daily trend the swing bias continues to be positive and this direction is being confirmed on the weekly time frame. Furthermore the averages layered positively and the RSI is in gear with the trend. Furthermore the last up move has invalidated the bearish Head and Shoulders top scenario. However as EURUSD is now greatly extended from the averages it would not be a surprise if the price action experiences corrective down to sideways movement. Scenario 1 As the dominant daily trend is up retracements into support could be viewed as buying opportunities with the current long term target being the 1.3710 resistance level. Scenario 2 Alternatively as the price action is extended from the averages there may be a possibility of short scalping opportunities being offered down to these averages. Daily Technical Analysis for GBPUSD as at 22nd October 2013 DAILY OVERVIEW Trend : Long Ambush Zone : - Target 1 : - Target 2 : - Stop : - Comments Yesterday GBPUSD traded lower off trend line resistances and this move lower continued through to this morning’s session On a swing bases GBPUSD continues to trend positively on both daily and weekly time frames following the bounce off both trend line and the 34 period moving averages support. If GBPUSD can continue with its upward bias there is a possibility that the 1.6400 area is challenged. This level coincides with a prior weekly pivot high. The long bias is reinforced by the RSI and the moving averages confirming the swing direction however as the price action is now extended from the averages the possibility of down to sideways corrective action should not be discounted. Scenario 1 As the dominant daily trend is up retracements into support could be viewed as buying opportunities. Scenario 2 Alternatively as the price action is extended from the averages there is a possibility of corrective down to sideways action down to the averages. Daily Technical Analysis for USDCHF as at 22nd October 2013 DAILY OVERVIEW Trend : Down Ambush Zone : - Target 1 : - Target 2 : - Stop : - Comments The 0.9020 level continues to offer support to USDCHF as it closed for the third day around this level. This morning there has been a positive open off this level. We are monitoring the possibility that USDCHF either breaks the 0.9020 level or trades up to 8 period moving averages. On a swing bases the trend continues to be negative with support areas being 0.9020 and 0.8930. Scenario 1 As the dominant daily trend is down corrective pullbacks could possibly offer selling opportunities with retracements back to the averages, the prior pivot low and broken support being value areas where shorts could potentially be added. Scenario 2 Alternatively we are monitoring a possible move to the 8 period moving averages. Daily Technical Analysis for USDJPY as at 22nd October 2013 DAILY OVERVIEW Trend : Short Ambush Zone : - Target 1 : - Target 2 : - Stop : - Comments Yesterday USD closed slightly higher as it hugged the 8 period moving averages whilst trading beneath Fibonacci resistance. This theme has so far continued into this morning’s session. In terms of the bigger picture USDJPY continues to trade within a converging triangle formation but is now retracing and trading higher following the breach of the 96.80 level which coincided with a prior swing low. This breach of this pivot has effectively changed the trend to short on a swing basis. However trend change to down maybe limited due to the strength of the uptrend’s that can be found in both Monthly and Weekly time frames. Therefore breaks of the converging triangle formation should be treated with care and possible entered after further confirmation is received. Scenario 1 As the dominant daily trend is down retracements into resistance could be viewed as selling opportunities Scenario 2 Alternatively a move above the converging triangle opens up a possibility of buying USDJPY with the view of participating in a large linear uptrend.
  14. Daily Technical Analysis from ACFX 10/21/2013 Daily Technical Analysis for EURUSD as at 21st October 2013 DAILY OVERVIEW Trend : Long Ambush Zone : - Target 1 : - Target 2 : - Stop : - Comments On Friday EURUSD traded at the highs of the latest up leg in what was a very quiet London and New York session which failed to break the key 1.3710 resistance level. This morning’s open has thus far been extremely quiet. In terms of the daily trend the swing bias continues to be positive and this direction is being confirmed on the weekly time frame. Furthermore the averages layered positively and the RSI is in gear with the trend. Furthermore the last up move has invalidated the bearish Head and Shoulders top scenario. However as EURUSD is now greatly extended from the averages it would not be a surprise if the price action experiences corrective down to sideways movement. Scenario 1 As the dominant daily trend is up retracements into support could be viewed as buying opportunities with the current long term target being the 1.3710 resistance level. Scenario 2 Alternatively as the price action is extended from the averages there may be a possibility of short scalping opportunities being offered down to these averages. Daily Technical Analysis for GBPUSD as at 21st October 2013 DAILY OVERVIEW Trend : Long Ambush Zone : - Target 1 : - Target 2 : - Stop : - Comments On Friday GBPUSD experience a very quiet day as it continued to find resistance off trend lines that where identified previously. This morning this theme has continued with GBPUSD opening unchanged. On a swing bases GBPUSD continues to trend positively on both daily and weekly time frames following the bounce off both trend line and the 34 period moving averages support. If GBPUSD can continue with its upward bias there is a possibility that the 1.6400 area is challenged. This level coincides with a prior weekly pivot high. The long bias is reinforced by the RSI and the moving averages confirming the swing direction however as the price action is now extended from the averages the possibility of down to sideways corrective action should not be discounted. Scenario 1 As the dominant daily trend is up retracements into support could be viewed as buying opportunities. Scenario 2 Alternatively as the price action is extended from the averages there is a possibility of corrective down to sideways action down to the averages. Daily Technical Analysis for USDCHF as at 21st October 2013 DAILY OVERVIEW Trend : Down Ambush Zone : - Target 1 : - Target 2 : - Stop : - Comments Following USDCHF rapid collapse off moving average resistance further downward momentum was halted at the 0.9020 resistance level. On Friday USDCHF experienced a quiet session which saw this pair fail to make a substantial move beneath the 0.09020 level. This morning USDCHF is making a moderate bounce off this support area however it is too early in the session to predict if this is an attempt for USDCHF to print a higher low swing. On a swing bases the trend continues to be negative with support areas being 0.9020 and 0.8930. Scenario 1 As the dominant daily trend is down corrective pullbacks could possibly offer selling opportunities with retracements back to the averages, the prior pivot low and broken support being value areas where shorts could potentially be added. Scenario 2 Alternatively a failure to hold beneath the 8 period moving averages could see USDCHF trade back up to the 34 period moving averages. Daily Technical Analysis for USDJPY as at 21st October 2013 DAILY OVERVIEW Trend : Short Ambush Zone : - Target 1 : - Target 2 : - Stop : - Comments Thursday’s price action saw USDJPY reject both Fibonacci and moving average resistance and in the process traded lower from these levels. However the price action on Friday was muted and this theme has so far continued into this morning’s session. In terms of the bigger picture USDJPY continues to trade within a converging triangle formation but is now retracing and trading higher following the breach of the 96.80 level which coincided with a prior swing low. This breach of this pivot has effectively changed the trend to short on a swing basis. However trend change to down maybe limited due to the strength of the uptrend’s that can be found in both Monthly and Weekly time frames. Therefore breaks of the converging triangle formation should be treated with care and possible entered after further confirmation is received. Scenario 1 As the dominant daily trend is down retracements into resistance could be viewed as selling opportunities Scenario 2 Alternatively a move above the converging triangle opens up a possibility of buying USDJPY with the view of participating in a large linear uptrend.
  15. Daily Technical Analysis from ACFX 10/18/2013 Daily Technical Analysis for EURUSD as at 18th October 2013 DAILY OVERVIEW Trend : Long Ambush Zone : - Target 1 : - Target 2 : - Stop : - Comments Yesterday EURUSD experienced a stellar up day as it broke up from the 1.3470 and 8 period moving averages support level. This morning EURUSD is attempting to trade up to the 1.3710 resistance level which is a previous weekly pivot high. In terms of the daily trend the swing bias continues to be positive and this direction is being confirmed on the weekly time frame. Furthermore the averages layered positively and the RSI is in gear with the trend. Furthermore yesterday’s move has invalidated the bearish Head and Shoulders top. However as EURUSD is now greatly extended from the averages it would not be a surprise if the price action experiences corrective down to sideways movement. Scenario 1 As the dominant daily trend is up retracements into support could be viewed as buying opportunities with the current long term target being the 1.3710 resistance level. Scenario 2 Alternatively as the price action is extended from the averages there may be a possibility of short scalping opportunities being offered down to these averages. Daily Technical Analysis for GBPUSD as at 18th October 2013 DAILY OVERVIEW Trend : Long Ambush Zone : - Target 1 : - Target 2 : - Stop : - Comments Much like EURUSD yesterday GBPUSD also had a very strong up day and traded a much greater range than usual as it broke up from its averages and trend line support. This morning GBPUSD continues to trade higher albeit at a slower pace which is most probably not unusual after such a strong previous day. On a swing bases GBPUSD continues to trend positively on both daily and weekly time frames and has now bounced off trend line support and the 34 period moving averages following its move down off multiyear trend line resistance. If GBPUSD can continue with its up move there is a possibility that the 1.6400 area is challenged. This level coincides with a prior weekly pivot high. The long bias is reinforced by the RSI and the moving averages confirming the swing direction however as the price action is now extended from the averages the possibility of down to sideways corrective action should not be discounted. Scenario 1 As the dominant daily trend is up retracements into support could be viewed as buying opportunities. Scenario 2 Alternatively as the price action is extended from the averages there is a possibility of corrective down to sideways action down to the averages. Daily Technical Analysis for USDCHF as at 18th October 2013 DAILY OVERVIEW Trend : Down Ambush Zone : - Target 1 : - Target 2 : - Stop : - Comments Yesterday USDCHF continued with it’s downwards movement that was seen in the open as it rapidly collapsed off the resistance area that was offered by the averages. The down move was stopped at the 0.9020 area which was identified in yesterdays analysis. On a swing bases the trend continues to be negative with support areas being 0.9020 and 0.8930. Scenario 1 As the dominant daily trend is down corrective pullbacks could possibly offer selling opportunities with retracements back to the averages, the prior pivot low and broken support being value areas where shorts could potentially be added. Scenario 2 Alternatively a failure to hold beneath the 8 period moving averages could see USDCHF trade back up to the 34 period moving averages. Daily Technical Analysis for USDJPY as at 18th October 2013 DAILY OVERVIEW Trend : Short Ambush Zone : - Target 1 : - Target 2 : - Stop : - Comments As posted yesterday USDJPY continues to trade within a converging triangle formation but is now retracing and trading higher following the breach of the 96.80 level which coincided with a prior swing low. This breach of this pivot has effectively changed the trend to short on a swing basis. However trend change to down maybe limited due to the strength of the uptrend’s that can be found in both Monthly and Weekly time frames. Therefore breaks of the converging triangle formation should be treated with care and possible entered after further confirmation is received. Scenario 1 As the dominant daily trend is down retracements into resistance could be viewed as selling opportunities Scenario 2 Alternatively a move above the converging triangle opens up a possibility of buying USDJPY with the view of participating in a large linear uptrend.
  16. Daily Technical Analysis from ACFX 10/17/2013 Daily Technical Analysis for EURUSD as at 17th October 2013 DAILY OVERVIEW Trend : Long Ambush Zone : - Target 1 : - Target 2 : - Stop : - Comments Yesterday EURUSD experienced a great deal of news related volatility before finally closing slightly higher and in the process printing a bullish hammer candle. There appears to be on the bases of the last two session’s strong support for EURUSD at the 1.3470 area. This morning EURUSD is trading higher off yesterday’s positive close and is currently broken back above the 8 period moving averages which is our preferred indicator used for the purposes of dynamic support and resistance on the daily time frame. In terms of the daily trend the swing bias continues to be positive and this direction is being confirmed on the weekly time frame. Furthermore the averages layered positively and the RSI is in gear with the trend. We are monitoring a possible move to 1.3710 being a previous weekly pivot high. However it would appear the EURUSD might be trying to print a bearish Head and Shoulders top. A break lower could see EURUSD trade down to trend line support. Scenario 1 As the dominant daily trend is up retracements into support could be viewed as buying opportunities with the current long term target being the 1.3710 resistance level. Scenario 2 Alternatively as the price action is attempting to print a Head and Shoulders top a break of the neck line could see EURUSD trade substantially lower. Daily Technical Analysis for GBPUSD as at 17th October 2013 DAILY OVERVIEW Trend : Long Ambush Zone : - Target 1 : - Target 2 : - Stop : - Comments Yesterday GBPUSD experienced a great deal of volatility and printed a relative wide range in what ended as a negative session. This morning GBPUSD has opened positively and paired most of yesterday’s losses. On a swing bases GBPUSD continues to trend positively on both daily and weekly time frames but has traded down off multiyear trend line resistance. This moved has followed through and breached the uptrend line support. However further support has been found at the 34 period moving averages where GBPUSD has bounced. If GBPUSD can hold this level there is potential for a retest of resistance and the 1.6400 area which coincides with a prior weekly pivot high. The long bias is reinforced by the RSI and the moving averages confirming the swing direction however a break of the 34 period moving averages could see GBPUSD trade down to 1.5700 area which coincides with the 1.5716 level being a previous swing pivot high of the 21st August 2013. Scenario 1 As the dominant daily trend is up retracements into support could be viewed as buying opportunities. Scenario 2 Alternatively a breach of the 34 period moving averages could see GBPUSD trade down the 1.5700 being a previous swing pivot high of the 21st August 2013. Daily Technical Analysis for USDCHF as at 17th October 2013 DAILY OVERVIEW Trend : Down Ambush Zone : - Target 1 : - Target 2 : - Stop : - Comments Yesterday once again USDCHF attempted to breach the 34 period moving averages but failed in its attempt to trade above resistance. This failure to breach resistance has followed into today’s session with USDCHF trading lower and now breaching the 8 period moving averages. This move might be seen as a possible resumption of the down trend. On a swing bases the trend continues to be negative with support areas being 0.9020 and 0.8930. Scenario 1 As the dominant daily trend is down corrective pullbacks could possibly offer selling opportunities with retracements back to the averages, the prior pivot low and broken support being value areas where shorts could potentially be added. Scenario 2 Alternatively a failure to hold beneath the 8 period moving averages could see USDCHF trade back up to the 34 period moving averages. Daily Technical Analysis for USDJPY as at 17th October 2013 DAILY OVERVIEW Trend : Short Ambush Zone : - Target 1 : - Target 2 : - Stop : - Comments USDJPY continues to trade within a converging triangle formation but is now retracing and trading higher following the breach of the 96.80 level which coincided with a prior swing low. This breach of this pivot has effectively changed the trend to short on a swing basis. However trend change to down maybe limited due to the strength of the uptrend’s that can be found in both Monthly and Weekly time frames. Therefore breaks of the converging triangle formation should be treated with care and possible entered after further confirmation is received. Scenario 1 As the dominant daily trend is down retracements into resistance could be viewed as selling opportunities Scenario 2 Alternatively a move above the converging triangle opens up a possibility of buying USDJPY with the view of participating in a large linear uptrend.
  17. Daily Technical Analysis from ACFX 10/04/2013 Daily Technical Analysis for EURUSD as at 4th October 2013 DAILY OVERVIEW Trend : Long Ambush Zone : - Target 1 : - Target 2 : - Stop : - Comments Yesterday EURUSD continued to trade higher following it’s bounced off the 8 period moving averages. This morning EURUSD has opened quietly. We are awaiting the London open for an indication of short term directional momentum. In terms of the daily trend the swing bias continues to be positive and this direction is being confirmed on the weekly time frame. Furthermore the averages layered positively and the RSI is in gear with the trend. We are monitoring a possible move to 1.3710 being a previous weekly pivot high. Scenario 1 As the dominant daily trend is up retracements into support could be viewed as buying opportunities Scenario 2 Alternatively as the price action is extended from the averages there is a possibility that EURUSD may experience a downward or sideways correction. Daily Technical Analysis for GBPUSD as at 4th October 2013 DAILY OVERVIEW Trend : Long Ambush Zone : - Target 1 : - Target 2 : - Stop : - Comments Yesterday GBPUSD traded down off multiyear trend line resistance. This moved has followed through into this morning with GBPUSD approaching close to the 8 period moving averages which is our initial support and value area for potential long entries. If GBPUSD can hold this level there is potential for a retest of resistance and the 1.6400 area which coincides with a prior weekly pivot high. With the RSI and the moving averages confirming the up move and weekly time frame being in gear with the daily time frame shorting such a strong up trend can be dangerous. However with GBPUSD now trading into overhead resistance there is a possibility of a rejection of this level and a potential move back down to the 34 period moving averages and trend line support. Scenario 1 As the dominant daily trend is up retracements into support could be viewed as buying opportunities. These retracements would be ideally taken off an obvious corrective pull back to the 8 period moving averages, trend line support or previous pivot high. However there is a possibility that pull backs are limited and GBPUSD continues to break higher. In this case pullbacks and break outs could potentially be identified off lower time frames. Scenario 2 Alternatively a breach of the 8 period moving averages could see GBPUSD trade down the 34 period moving averages and trend line support. Daily Technical Analysis for USDCHF as at 4th October 2013 DAILY OVERVIEW Trend : Down Ambush Zone : - Target 1 : - Target 2 : - Stop : - Comments Yesterday once again USDCHF breached the 0.9020 area but on this occasion managed to close beneath this level. This morning this negative momentum is continuing. The next potential support level is 0.8930 which corresponds to a weekly pivot swing low. Scenario 1 As the dominant daily trend is down corrective pullbacks could possibly offer selling opportunities with retracements back to the averages, the prior pivot low and broken support being value areas where shorts could potentially be added. However there is a possibility of USDCHF continuing to break lower following relatively minor corrective pullbacks which can be identified off intraday charts. Scenario 2 Alternatively one could potentially take scalp longs up to the previously mentioned value areas. Daily Technical Analysis for USDJPY as at 4th October 2013 DAILY OVERVIEW Trend : Long Ambush Zone : - Target 1 : - Target 2 : - Stop : - Comments Yesterday USDJPY continues its move down following the rejection of the 8 period moving averages. This morning USDJPY has opened quietly. We are awaiting the London open for an indication of possible short term directional momentum. All eyes are now on the 96.80 level which coincides with a prior swing low. A breach of this pivot will effectively change the trend to short on a swing basis. However a possible daily trend change to down maybe limited due to the strength of the uptrend’s that can be found in both Monthly and Weekly time frames. Scenario 1 As the dominant daily trend is up retracements into support could be viewed as buying opportunities Scenario 2 Alternatively a move beneath the converging triangle opens up a possibility of shorting USDJPY down to the prior swing low. Daily Technical Analysis for Gold as at 4th October 2013 DAILY OVERVIEW Trend : Short Ambush Zone : - Target 1 : - Target 2 : - Stop : - Comments Having breached the low of the 18th September pivot the daily trend in Gold has turned negative on a swing bases. The move down was large and exceeded the daily average range. That Gold experience a large bounce is in line with a corrective move that is in line with the weekly RSI positive divergence and the price action being extended from the averages. The correction however may have been completed as Gold has now traded up to the 8 period moving averages which is a potential value area for shorts to be added. Furthermore the formation of a bearish head and shoulders pattern that is now forming continues the focus for the time on possible short set ups. Scenario 1 As the dominant daily trend is down corrective sideways to up movements could potentially be viewed as selling opportunities. Scenario 2 Alternatively a breach of the 8 period moving averages could see Gold trade up to the 34 period moving averages. Daily Technical Analysis for Oil (WTI) as at 4th October 2013 DAILY OVERVIEW Trend : Short Ambush Zone : - Target 1 : - Target 2 : - Stop : - Comments Monday’s down move eventually formed a bullish hammer. With the 101 level holding Oil was propelled higher and is now trading above the 8 period moving averages. As the trend on a swing bias is short we are monitoring the price action for potential shorting opportunities. However as the weekly time frame remains positive there is a possibility that this move down is just a correction. Scenario 1 As the dominant daily trend is down retracements up to resistance such as the averages areas could possibly be viewed as selling opportunities. Scenario 2 Alternatively one could possibly take scalp longs up to the averages.
  18. Daily Market Outlook from ACFX 10/03/2013 Important Financial Indicators of the day GBP - 08:00 (GMT) - Manufacturing PMI - Forecast 57.5 - Previous 57.2 USD - 14:00 (GMT) - ISM Manufacturing PMI Forecast 55.3 - Previous 55.7 Currencies •EUR/USD The dollar slid to the lowest since Jan. 3 versus the pound after a partial shutdown of the U.S. government began with Congress in partisan dead-lock. •The dollar fell 0.3 percent to $1.6233 versus the pound as of 7:03 a.m. in London and touched as low as $1.6247, declining for a third day. The U.S. currency fell 0.1 percent to $1.3541 per euro. The yen rallied 0.1 percent to 98.16 per dollar after falling as much as 0.5 percent. It was little changed at 132.92 per euro. •AUD/USD Australia’s dollar climbed against all 16 major peers after the Reserve Bank refrained from cutting interest rates today. •The Australian dollar advanced 0.8 percent to 93.96 U.S. cents as of 3:41 p.m. in Sydney. Its New Zealand counterpart was little changed at 83.03 U.S. cents. •USD/CAD Canada’s dollar touched a four-day high after a report showed gross domestic product increased at the fastest pace in two years in July, adding to evidence the nation’s economy is rebounding from a second-quarter slowdown. •The loonie, nicknamed for the image of the aquatic bird on the C$1 coin, appreciated as much as 0.3 percent to C$1.0275 per U.S. dollar before erasing gains at day’s end to trade little changed at C$1.0309 at 5 p.m. in Toronto. One Canadian dollar buys 97 U.S. cents. Commodities •Oil West Texas Intermediate slid for a third day as the U.S. government shut down over a budget stalemate, threatening to slow the economy and reduce demand in the world’s largest oil consumer. •WTI for November delivery fell as much as 49 cents to $101.84 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange and was at $101.97 at 1:33 p.m. Singapore time. The contract decreased 0.5 percent to $102.33 yesterday, the lowest level since July 3. The volume of all futures traded was about 46 percent below the 100-day average. Prices increased 6 percent last quarter. •Brent for November settlement fell as much as 67 cents, or 0.6 percent, to $107.70 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. The European benchmark was at a premium of $5.80 to WTI futures, from $6.04 yesterday. •Gold held losses on speculation that the first U.S. government shutdown in 17 years, which started at midnight in Washington, will be short-lived as lawmakers are forced to seek a compromise. Platinum touched an 11-week low. •Bullion for immediate delivery fell as much as 0.3 percent to $1,324.95 an ounce, extending yesterday’s 0.6 percent loss, and was at $1,328.35 at 12:24 p.m. in Singapore. Platinum fell as much as 0.6 percent to $1,395.13 an ounce, the lowest level since July 1, before rising 0.2 percent to $1,406.60. Equities •Asian stocks rose, led by Japanese shares, after Prime Minister Shinzo Abe said the nation will increase its sales tax as planned. Gains were limited by the first partial U.S. government shutdown in 17 years. •The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 0.3 percent to 138.96 as of 2:37 p.m. in Tokyo with all but three of the 10 industry groups advancing. Japan will raise its sales tax in April to 8 percent from 5 percent, Abe said today. U.S. lawmakers passed a midnight deadline without reaching a compromise to keep funding the government. Both sides of U.S. politics also are still in dispute over raising the nation’s $16.7 trillion debt ceiling •European stocks futures climbed, indicating the Stoxx Europe 600 Index will rebound from its biggest decline in a month, as investors gauged the impact of a partial shutdown of the U.S. government. U.S. stock futures and Asian shares advanced. •Futures on the Euro Stoxx 50 (SX5E) expiring in December added 0.3 percent to 2,887 at 7:23 a.m. in London. Contracts on the U.K.’s FTSE 100 Index increased less than 0.1 percent. Standard & Poor’s 500 Index futures climbed 0.2 percent, while the MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 0.2 percent. •U.S stocks slid, paring a quarterly gain for the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index, as a stalemate over the federal budget sent the government toward a potential shutdown at midnight. •The S&P 500 fell 0.6 percent to 1,681.55 at 4 p.m. in New York. The benchmark gauge added 3 percent for the month, giving it a quarterly gain of 4.7 percent, as the Federal Reserve kept its $85 billion of monthly bond-buying. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 128.57 points, or 0.8 percent, to 15,129.67 today. About 6.3 billion shares changed hands on U.S. exchanges, 8.7 percent above the three-month average.
  19. Daily Technical Analysis from ACFX 10/03/2013 Daily Technical Analysis for EURUSD as at 3rd October 2013 DAILY OVERVIEW Trend : Long Ambush Zone : - Target 1 : - Target 2 : - Stop : - Comments Yesterday EURUSD bounced off the 8 period moving averages and traded substantially higher. This morning EURUSD has opened positively. In terms of the daily trend the swing bias continues to be positive and this direction is being confirmed on the weekly time frame. Furthermore the averages layered positively and the RSI is in gear with the trend. We are monitoring a possible move to 1.3710 being a previous weekly pivot high. Scenario 1 As the dominant daily trend is up retracements into support could be viewed as buying opportunities Scenario 2 Alternatively as the price action is extended from the averages there is a possibility that EURUSD may experience a downward or sideways correction. Daily Technical Analysis for GBPUSD as at 3rd October 2013 DAILY OVERVIEW Trend : Long Ambush Zone : - Target 1 : - Target 2 : - Stop : - Comments GBPUSD continue its upward movement following the bounce off the 8 period moving averages. GBPUSD is now threatening to breach a multiyear down trend line and the 1.6400 area which coincides with a prior weekly pivot high. With the RSI and the moving averages confirming the up move and weekly time frame being in gear with the daily time frame shorting such a strong up trend can be dangerous. However with GBPUSD now extended from the averages and trading into overhead resistance there is a possibility of a rejection of these level and a potential move back down to the averages. Scenario 1 As the dominant daily trend is up retracements into support could be viewed as buying opportunities. These retracements would be ideally taken off an obvious corrective pull back to the 8 period moving averages, trend line support or previous pivot high. However there is a possibility that pull backs are limited and GBPUSD continues to break higher. In this case pullbacks and break outs could potentially be identified off lower time frames. Scenario 2 Alternatively a rejection of resistance could see GBPUSD trade back down to the 8 period moving averages. Daily Technical Analysis for USDCHF as at 3rd October 2013 DAILY OVERVIEW Trend : Down Ambush Zone : - Target 1 : - Target 2 : - Stop : - Comments Yesterday USDCHF breached the 0.9020 area only for support to come into the market for this currency pair and in the process the price action printed a bullish hammer. This morning USDCHF continues to hold above the 0.9020 and is now touching the 8 period moving averages which is a potential value area where shorts could potentially be added. Scenario 1 As the dominant daily trend is down corrective pullbacks could possibly offer selling opportunities with retracements back to the averages, the prior pivot low and broken support being value areas where shorts could potentially be added. However there is a possibility of USDCHF continuing to break lower following relatively minor corrective pullbacks which can be identified off intraday charts. Scenario 2 Alternatively one could potentially take scalp longs up to the previously mentioned value areas. Daily Technical Analysis for USDJPY as at 3rd October 2013 DAILY OVERVIEW Trend : Long Ambush Zone : - Target 1 : - Target 2 : - Stop : - Comments USDJPY traded up to the 8 period moving averages only for this pair to reject this level. Yesterday the move down gained momentum however this morning USDJPY has experienced a bounce which would be in line with a correction due to the price action being extended from the averages. All eyes are now on the 96.80 level which coincides with a prior swing low. A breach of this pivot will effectively change the trend to short on a swing basis. However a possible daily trend change to down maybe limited due to the strength of the uptrend’s that can be found in both Monthly and Weekly time frames. Scenario 1 As the dominant daily trend is up retracements into support could be viewed as buying opportunities Scenario 2 Alternatively a move beneath the converging triangle opens up a possibility of shorting USDJPY down to the prior swing low. Daily Technical Analysis for Gold as at 3rd October 2013 DAILY OVERVIEW Trend : Short Ambush Zone : - Target 1 : - Target 2 : - Stop : - Comments Having breached the low of the 18th September pivot the daily trend in Gold has turned negative on a swing bases. The move down was large and exceeded the daily average range. That yesterday Gold experience a large bounce is in line with a corrective move that is in line with the weekly RSI positive divergence and the price action being extended from the averages. The correction however may have been completed as Gold has now traded up to the 8 period moving averages which is a potential value area for shorts to be added. Furthermore the formation of a bearish head and shoulders pattern that is now forming continues the focus for the time on possible short set ups. Scenario 1 As the dominant daily trend is down corrective sideways to up movements could potentially be viewed as selling opportunities. Scenario 2 Alternatively a breach of the 8 period moving averages could see Gold trade up to the 34 period moving averages. Daily Technical Analysis for Oil (WTI) as at 2nd October 2013 DAILY OVERVIEW Trend : Short Ambush Zone : - Target 1 : - Target 2 : - Stop : - Comments Monday’s down move eventually formed a bullish hammer. With yesterdays price action trading within Monday’s range and today’s open being quiet and within this range we are monitoring the 101 area to if support can hold Oil around this level. Scenario 1 As the dominant daily trend is down retracements up to resistance such as the averages areas could possibly be viewed as selling opportunities. Scenario 2 Alternatively one could possibly take scalp longs up to the averages.
  20. Daily Market Outlook from ACFX 10/02/2013 Important Financial Indicators of the day GBP - 08:00 (GMT) - Manufacturing PMI - Forecast 57.5 - Previous 57.2 USD - 14:00 (GMT) - ISM Manufacturing PMI - Forecast 55.3 - Previous 55.7 Currencies •EUR/USD The dollar slid to the lowest since Jan. 3 versus the pound after a partial shutdown of the U.S. government began with Congress in partisan dead-lock. •The dollar fell 0.3 percent to $1.6233 versus the pound as of 7:03 a.m. in London and touched as low as $1.6247, declining for a third day. The U.S. currency fell 0.1 percent to $1.3541 per euro. The yen rallied 0.1 percent to 98.16 per dollar after falling as much as 0.5 percent. It was little changed at 132.92 per euro. •AUD/USD Australia’s dollar climbed against all 16 major peers after the Reserve Bank refrained from cutting interest rates today. •The Australian dollar advanced 0.8 percent to 93.96 U.S. cents as of 3:41 p.m. in Sydney. Its New Zealand counterpart was little changed at 83.03 U.S. cents. •USD/CAD Canada’s dollar touched a four-day high after a report showed gross domestic product increased at the fastest pace in two years in July, adding to evidence the nation’s economy is rebounding from a second-quarter slowdown. •The loonie, nicknamed for the image of the aquatic bird on the C$1 coin, appreciated as much as 0.3 percent to C$1.0275 per U.S. dollar before erasing gains at day’s end to trade little changed at C$1.0309 at 5 p.m. in Toronto. One Canadian dollar buys 97 U.S. cents. Commodities •Oil West Texas Intermediate slid for a third day as the U.S. government shut down over a budget stalemate, threatening to slow the economy and reduce demand in the world’s largest oil consumer. •WTI for November delivery fell as much as 49 cents to $101.84 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange and was at $101.97 at 1:33 p.m. Singapore time. The contract decreased 0.5 percent to $102.33 yesterday, the lowest level since July 3. The volume of all futures traded was about 46 percent below the 100-day average. Prices increased 6 percent last quarter. •Brent for November settlement fell as much as 67 cents, or 0.6 percent, to $107.70 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. The European benchmark was at a premium of $5.80 to WTI futures, from $6.04 yesterday. •Gold held losses on speculation that the first U.S. government shutdown in 17 years, which started at midnight in Washington, will be short-lived as lawmakers are forced to seek a compromise. Platinum touched an 11-week low. •Bullion for immediate delivery fell as much as 0.3 percent to $1,324.95 an ounce, extending yesterday’s 0.6 percent loss, and was at $1,328.35 at 12:24 p.m. in Singapore. Platinum fell as much as 0.6 percent to $1,395.13 an ounce, the lowest level since July 1, before rising 0.2 percent to $1,406.60. Equities •Asian stocks rose, led by Japanese shares, after Prime Minister Shinzo Abe said the nation will increase its sales tax as planned. Gains were limited by the first partial U.S. government shutdown in 17 years. •The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 0.3 percent to 138.96 as of 2:37 p.m. in Tokyo with all but three of the 10 industry groups advancing. Japan will raise its sales tax in April to 8 percent from 5 percent, Abe said today. U.S. lawmakers passed a midnight deadline without reaching a compromise to keep funding the government. Both sides of U.S. politics also are still in dispute over raising the nation’s $16.7 trillion debt ceiling •European stocks futures climbed, indicating the Stoxx Europe 600 Index will rebound from its biggest decline in a month, as investors gauged the impact of a partial shutdown of the U.S. government. U.S. stock futures and Asian shares advanced. •Futures on the Euro Stoxx 50 (SX5E) expiring in December added 0.3 percent to 2,887 at 7:23 a.m. in London. Contracts on the U.K.’s FTSE 100 Index increased less than 0.1 percent. Standard & Poor’s 500 Index futures climbed 0.2 percent, while the MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose 0.2 percent. •U.S stocks slid, paring a quarterly gain for the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index, as a stalemate over the federal budget sent the government toward a potential shutdown at midnight. •The S&P 500 fell 0.6 percent to 1,681.55 at 4 p.m. in New York. The benchmark gauge added 3 percent for the month, giving it a quarterly gain of 4.7 percent, as the Federal Reserve kept its $85 billion of monthly bond-buying. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 128.57 points, or 0.8 percent, to 15,129.67 today. About 6.3 billion shares changed hands on U.S. exchanges, 8.7 percent above the three-month average.
  21. Daily Technical Analysis from ACFX 10/02/2013 Daily Technical Analysis for EURUSD as at 2nd October 2013 DAILY OVERVIEW Trend : Long Ambush Zone : - Target 1 : - Target 2 : - Stop : - Comments Yesterday EURUSD traded substantially higher only for it to pair its gains and close near its open and just above the 8 period moving averages. This morning this average continues to offer some support and a potential value area for longs to be taken. The pattern being formed is a rising wedge. A break down from this pattern could see EURUSD trade down to the 34 period moving averages. A break down would be in line with the weekly RSI which has yet to confirm the up move. However with the swing bias continuing to point up on both daily and weekly time frames and the moving averages layered positively we are monitoring a possible move to 1.3710 being a previous weekly pivot high. Scenario 1 As the dominant daily trend is up retracements into support could be viewed as buying opportunities Scenario 2 Alternatively a breach of the 8 period moving averages could see EURUSD trading down to the 34 period moving averages. Daily Technical Analysis for GBPUSD as at 2nd October 2013 DAILY OVERVIEW Trend : Long Ambush Zone : - Target 1 : - Target 2 : - Stop : - Comments GBPUSD continue its upward movement following the bounce off the 8 period moving averages. GBPUSD is now threatening to breach a multiyear down trend line and the 1.6400 area which coincides with a prior weekly pivot high. With the RSI and the moving averages confirming the up move and weekly time frame being in gear with the daily time frame shorting such a strong up trend can be dangerous. However with GBPUSD now extended from the averages and trading into overhead resistance there is a possibility of a rejection of these level and a potential move back down to the averages. Scenario 1 As the dominant daily trend is up retracements into support could be viewed as buying opportunities. These retracements would be ideally taken off an obvious corrective pull back to the 8 period moving averages, trend line support or previous pivot high. However there is a possibility that pull backs are limited and GBPUSD continues to break higher. In this case pullbacks and break outs could potentially be identified off lower time frames. Scenario 2 Alternatively a rejection of resistance could see GBPUSD trade back down to the 8 period moving averages. Daily Technical Analysis for USDCHF as at October 2013 DAILY OVERVIEW Trend : Down Ambush Zone : - Target 1 : - Target 2 : - Stop : - Comments Yesterday USDCHF breached the 0.9020 area only for support to come into the market for this currency pair and in the process the price action printed a bullish hammer. This morning USDCHF continues to hold above the 0.9020 and is now touching the 8 period moving averages which is a potential value area where shorts could potentially be added. Scenario 1 As the dominant daily trend is down corrective pullbacks could possibly offer selling opportunities with retracements back to the averages, the prior pivot low and broken support being value areas where shorts could potentially be added. However there is a possibility of USDCHF continuing to break lower following relatively minor corrective pullbacks which can be identified off intraday charts. Scenario 2 Alternatively one could potentially take scalp longs up to the previously mentioned value areas. Daily Technical Analysis for USDJPY as at 2nd October 2013 DAILY OVERVIEW Trend : Long Ambush Zone : - Target 1 : - Target 2 : - Stop : - Comments Yesterday USDJPY traded up to the 8 period moving averages only for this pair to reject this level. This morning the negativity has increased as USDJPY trades down from both the averages and Fibonacci resistance. All eyes are now on the 96.80 level which coincides with a prior swing low. A breach of this pivot will effectively change the trend to short on a swing basis. However a possible daily trend change to down maybe limited due to the strength of the uptrend’s that can be found in both Monthly and Weekly time frames with a breach of the prior swing high will confirm the uptrend. Scenario 1 As the dominant daily trend is up retracements into support could be viewed as buying opportunities Scenario 2 Alternatively a move beneath the converging triangle opens up a possibility of shorting USDJPY down to the prior swing low. Daily Technical Analysis for Gold as at 2nd October 2013 DAILY OVERVIEW Trend : Short Ambush Zone : - Target 1 : - Target 2 : - Stop : - Comments Yesterday Gold breached the low of the 18th September pivot and in the process changed the trend on a swing basis to down. The move yesterday was large and exceeded the daily average range. For this reason and due to the price action being extended from the averages and the weekly RSI continuing to diverge positively we are monitoring Gold for signs of a corrective upward retracement. However as the trend is now down and with the formation of a bearish head and shoulders pattern now forming the main focus for the time being would be for possible short set ups. Scenario 1 As the dominant daily trend is down corrective sideways to up movements could potentially be viewed as selling opportunities. Scenario 2 Alternatively as the price action is extended from the averages there is potential for scalp longs back up to these averages. Daily Technical Analysis for Oil (WTI) as at 2nd October 2013 DAILY OVERVIEW Trend : Short Ambush Zone : - Target 1 : - Target 2 : - Stop : - Comments Monday’s down move eventually formed a bullish hammer. With yesterdays price action trading within Monday’s range and today’s open being quiet and within this range we are monitoring the 101 area to if support can hold Oil around this level. Scenario 1 As the dominant daily trend is down retracements up to resistance such as the averages areas could possibly be viewed as selling opportunities. Scenario 2 Alternatively one could possibly take scalp longs up to the averages.
  22. Daily Market Outlook from ACFX 09/30/2013 Important Financial Indicators of the day CAD - 12:30 (GMT) - GDP m/m - Forecast 0.6% - Previous -0.5% Currencies •EUR/USD The dollar dropped to a one-month low against the yen as political wrangling over the budget threatened a U.S. government shutdown from tomorrow. •The dollar touched 97.53 yen, the weakest since Aug. 29, before trading 0.4 percent lower at 97.89 yen as of 6:48 a.m. in London. Japan’s currency added 0.6 percent to 132.11 versus Europe’s 17-nation tender and reached 131.38, the strongest since Sept. 9. The euro declined 0.2 percent to $1.3497 •GBP/USD The pound strengthened for a fourth day against the euro after an industry report showed U.K. house prices rose the most in six years this month. •The pound rose 0.4 percent to 83.49 pence per euro at 7:58 a.m. London time after appreciating to 83.40 pence, the strongest since Jan. 17. Sterling was little changed at $1.6145. Commodities •Oil West Texas Intermediate crude fell to the lowest in almost three months on concern that the U.S. government is headed for a shutdown over a budget stalemate that would reduce demand in the world’s largest oil consumer. •WTI for November delivery slid as much as $1.42 to $101.45 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange, the lowest intraday price since July 5. The contract was at $101.50 at 2:49 p.m. Singapore time. The volume of all futures traded was about 33 percent above the 100-day average. Prices are up 5.1 percent this quarter and 11 percent in 2013. •Brent for November settlement fell as much as $1.13, or 1 percent, to $107.50 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange and was at $107.60. The European benchmark crude was at a premium of $6.08 to WTI futures, up from $5.76 on Sept. 27. •Gold advanced to the highest level in more than a week, heading for the first quarterly increase in a year, as concern that the U.S. government may be shut down because of a budget impasse boosted haven demand. •Bullion for immediate delivery advanced as much as 1.3 percent to $1,354.35 an ounce, the highest price since Sept. 20, and was at $1,340.80 at 3:06 p.m. in Singapore. Prices are 8.6 higher in the three months ending today, the first quarterly increase since the period to September 2012. Equities •Asian stocks fell, with the benchmark index paring its biggest monthly gain since 2012, on concern the U.S. government is headed for a shutdown amid a budget stalemate. •The MSCI Asia Pacific Index dropped 1.5 percent to 138.73 as of 3:33 p.m. in Tokyo, with all 10 industry groups on the gauge falling. It’s headed for a 6.6 percent increase this month, the most since January 2012, and is up 6.3 percent this quarter. Even if Congress resolves the budget fight by the Oct. 1 deadline, U.S. lawmakers would move to the next fiscal dispute over raising the $16.7 trillion debt ceiling. •European stocks sank as the U.S. faced the first government shutdown in 17 years and Italian Prime Minister Enrico Letta fought to save his administration. Asian shares and U.S. index futures retreated. •The Stoxx Europe 600 Index fell 0.7 percent to 310.02 at 8:05 a.m. in London. The gauge has still climbed 4.3 percent in September as the Federal Reserve held off from trimming its monthly asset purchases. It has surged 8.8 percent since the end of June, heading for the biggest quarterly gain in four years. Standard & Poor’s 500 Index futures retreated 0.8 percent today, while the MSCI Asia Pacific Index sank 1.5 percent. •U.S stocks futures slumped for a second day and Treasuries rose as politicians clashed over the federal budget, threatening a U.S. government shutdown starting tomorrow. •Standard & Poor’s 500 Index futures expiring in December dropped 0.7 percent to 1,675.20 as of 6:42 a.m. in London, heading for the lowest close in three weeks. U.S. 10-year yields fell three basis points, or 0.03 percentage point, to 2.60 percent, Bloomberg Bond Trader data show. The 2.5 percent note due in August 2023 rose 7/32, or $2.19 per $1,000 face amount, to 99 5/32 as investors sought the relative safety of debt.
  23. Daily Technical Analysis from ACFX 09/30/2013 Daily Technical Analysis for EURUSD as at 30th September 2013 DAILY OVERVIEW Trend : Long Ambush Zone : - Target 1 : - Target 2 : - Stop : - Comments Following the move that formed the higher high on the 19th September EURUSD has traded within a 110 pip range. As the price action has a positive swing bias we are monitoring if the move down to the 8 period moving averages value area will act as a trigger zone for longs to add positions prior to a move to the previous swing high. However for this to happen we would like to see EURUSD close and trade above this morning’s downside opening gap. As posted previously further positivity for EURUSD will be in line with the change of the daily trend to up, the bullish weekly time frame the moving averages crossing positively and the break of the multiyear downward sloping trend line. We are currently monitoring the possibility of a move to 1.3710 being a previous weekly pivot high. However as the weekly RSI has yet to show signs of confirming this move the possibility of some kind of correction should not be ruled out. Scenario 1 As the dominant daily trend is up retracements into support could be viewed as buying opportunities Scenario 2 Alternatively a breach of the 8 period moving averages could see EURUSD trading down to the 34 period moving averages. Daily Technical Analysis for GBPUSD as at 30th September 2013 DAILY OVERVIEW Trend : Long Ambush Zone : - Target 1 : - Target 2 : - Stop : - Comments GBPUSD as predicted the 8 period moving averages gave support. This morning GBPUSD has traded above the 18th September high. A continued up move should put in focus the possibility of GBPUSD threatening to breach a multiyear down trend line and the 1.6400 area which coincides with a prior weekly pivot high. With the RSI and the moving averages confirming the up move and weekly time frame being in gear with the daily time frame shorting such a strong up trend can be dangerous. However with GBPUSD has yet to experience a good retracement and there is a possibility of further corrective down to sideways price action. Scenario 1 As the dominant daily trend is up retracements into support could be viewed as buying opportunities. These retracements would be ideally taken off an obvious corrective pull back to the 8 period moving averages, trend line support or previous pivot high. However there is a possibility that pull backs are limited and GBPUSD continues to break higher. In this case pullbacks and break outs could potentially be identified off lower time frames. Scenario 2 Alternatively a breach of the 8 period moving averages could see GBPUSD trade down to trend line support. Daily Technical Analysis for USDCHF as at 30th September 2013 DAILY OVERVIEW Trend : Down Ambush Zone : - Target 1 : - Target 2 : - Stop : - Comments On Friday morning it was identified that USDCHF had traded up to our first value area being the 8 period moving averages which was a potential shorting zone. This scenario played out at USDCHF traded down to the 0.9020 support area where buyers came into the market. To recap on the bigger picture the price action breached trend line support, horizontal support and more importantly the prior swing low which effectively changes the trend to down. The RSI is in gear with this downtrend and this is further confirmed by the averages and weekly time frame. The next support level we are monitoring is the 0.9020 area. Scenario 1 As the dominant daily trend is down corrective pullbacks could possibly offer selling opportunities with retracements back to the averages, the prior pivot low and broken support being value areas where shorts could potentially be added. However there is a possibility of USDCHF continuing to break lower following relatively minor corrective pullbacks which can be identified off intraday charts. Scenario 2 Alternatively one could potentially take scalp longs up to the previously mentioned value areas. Daily Technical Analysis for USDJPY as at 30th September 2013 DAILY OVERVIEW Trend : Long Ambush Zone : - Target 1 : - Target 2 : - Stop : - Comments This morning USDJPY opens with a downside gap and is trading at an intersection of the broken converging triangle. Although the swing bias remains positive this morning’s gap and the Fibonacci resistance area could potentially be a catalyst for downside pressure. However a possible daily trend change to down maybe limited due to the strength of the uptrend’s that can be found in both Monthly and Weekly time frames. A breach of the prior swing high will confirm the uptrend where as a breach of the prior swing low will change the daily trend to negative. Scenario 1 As the dominant daily trend is up retracements into support could be viewed as buying opportunities Scenario 2 Alternatively a move beneath the converging triangle opens up a possibility of shorting USDJPY down to the prior swing low. Daily Technical Analysis for Gold as at 30th September 2013 DAILY OVERVIEW Trend : Long Ambush Zone : - Target 1 : - Target 2 : - Stop : - Comments Gold continues to trade in the Fibonacci support area. We are monitoring a possible move up to the 34 period moving averages. The bounce off Fibonacci and the 1320 support area has thus far failed to follow through with the price action trading back down deep into the Fibonacci area. The move down however has not retested the 1320 level. In terms of the bigger picture the daily trend is positive and the up move is in line with the hidden weekly divergence in the RSI. However the weekly time frame does continue to have a bearish outlook and the daily averages are layered negatively. We are currently monitoring a potential move to the prior swing pivot high. However a failure to follow through could see Gold breach the prior swing low and effectively changing the trend to negative. Scenario 1 As the dominant daily trend is up corrective sideways to down movements could potentially be viewed as buying opportunities. Scenario 2 Alternatively the breach of the 1320 support area could see Gold trade down to the prior pivot low. Daily Technical Analysis for Oil (WTI) as at 30th September 2013 DAILY OVERVIEW Trend : Short Ambush Zone : - Target 1 : - Target 2 : - Stop : - Comments This morning Oil opened with a downside gap and a breach of trend line support. This move happen following a rejection of the 8 period moving averages. Scenario 1 As the dominant daily trend is down retracements up to resistance such as the averages areas could possibly be viewed as selling opportunities. Scenario 2 Alternatively one could possibly take scalp longs up to the averages.
  24. Daily Technical Analysis from ACFX 09/27/2013 Daily Technical Analysis for EURUSD as at 27th September 2013 DAILY OVERVIEW Trend : Long Ambush Zone : - Target 1 : - Target 2 : - Stop : - Comments EURUSD continues to trade around our first value area which is the 8 period moving averages. We are therefore monitoring the price action for signs of support coming in at these levels prior to a resumption of the uptrend. Further positivity for EURUSD will be in line with the change of the daily trend to up, the bullish weekly time frame the moving averages crossing positively and the break of the multiyear downward sloping trend line. As posted previously we are currently monitoring the possibility of a move to 1.3710 being a previous weekly pivot high. However as the price action is extended from the averages there is potential for EURUSD to experience a corrective down to sideways movement. As the weekly RSI has yet to show signs of confirming this move the possibility of some kind of correction should not be ruled out. Scenario 1 As the dominant daily trend is up retracements into support could be viewed as buying opportunities Scenario 2 Alternatively a breach of the 8 period moving averages could see EURUSD trading down to the 34 period moving averages. Daily Technical Analysis for GBPUSD as at 27th September 2013 DAILY OVERVIEW Trend : Long Ambush Zone : - Target 1 : - Target 2 : - Stop : - Comments GBPUSD continues to find support at the 8 period moving averages which is our first value area. We are monitoring the price action at these levels for a possible up move to the previous swing high. A continued up move should put in focus the possibility of GBPUSD threatening to breach a multiyear down trend line and the 1.6400 area which coincides with a prior weekly pivot high. With the RSI and the moving averages confirming the up move and weekly time frame being in gear with the daily time frame shorting such a strong up trend can be dangerous. However with GBPUSD has yet to experience a good retracement and there is a possibility of further corrective down to sideways price action. Scenario 1 As the dominant daily trend is up retracements into support could be viewed as buying opportunities. These retracements would be ideally taken off an obvious corrective pull back to the 8 period moving averages, trend line support or previous pivot high. However there is a possibility that pull backs are limited and GBPUSD continues to break higher. In this case pullbacks and break outs could potentially be identified off lower time frames. Scenario 2 Alternatively a breach of the 8 period moving averages could see GBPUSD trade down to trend line support. Daily Technical Analysis for USDCHF as at 27th September 2013 DAILY OVERVIEW Trend : Down Ambush Zone : - Target 1 : - Target 2 : - Stop : - Comments USDCHF has traded up to our first value area being the 8 period moving averages which is a potential shorting zone. To recap on the bigger picture the price action breached trend line support, horizontal support and more importantly the prior swing low which effectively changes the trend to down. The RSI is in gear with this downtrend and this is further confirmed by the averages and weekly time frame. The next support level we are monitoring is the 0.9020 area. Scenario 1 As the dominant daily trend is down corrective pullbacks could possibly offer selling opportunities with retracements back to the averages, the prior pivot low and broken support being value areas where shorts could potentially be added. However there is a possibility of USDCHF continuing to break lower following relatively minor corrective pullbacks which can be identified off intraday charts. Scenario 2 Alternatively one could potentially take scalp longs up to the previously mentioned value areas. Daily Technical Analysis for USDJPY as at 27th September 2013 DAILY OVERVIEW Trend : Long Ambush Zone : - Target 1 : - Target 2 : - Stop : - Comments USDJPY continues to above the intersection of the converging triangle trend lines. As USDJPY is trading above the broken converging triangle and with the RSI confirming the move and the averages and weekly time frame pointing positive, we are monitoring the strength of this bounce. If the price action can hold above the triangle and trade through last Monday’s opening downside gap there is potential that USDJPY will retest the 100 level. If USDJPY however can trade beneath the converging triangle pattern a move and breach of the prior swing low comes into focus. A breach of the prior swing low will effectively change the swing trend to negative. This scenario is currently being highlighted by downside pressure being exerted by Fibonacci resistance. Scenario 1 As the dominant daily trend is up retracements into support could be viewed as buying opportunities Scenario 2 Alternatively a move beneath the converging triangle opens up a possibility of shorting USDJPY down to the prior swing low. Daily Technical Analysis for Gold as at 27th September 2013 DAILY OVERVIEW Trend : Long Ambush Zone : - Target 1 : - Target 2 : - Stop : - Comments Gold continues to trade in the Fibonacci support area. We are monitoring a possible move up to the 34 period moving averages. The bounce off Fibonacci and the 1320 support area has thus far failed to follow through with the price action trading back down deep into the Fibonacci area. The move down however has not retested the 1320 level. In terms of the bigger picture the daily trend is positive and the up move is in line with the hidden weekly divergence in the RSI. However the weekly time frame does continue to have a bearish outlook and the daily averages are layered negatively. We are currently monitoring a potential move to the prior swing pivot high. However a failure to follow through could see Gold breach the prior swing low and effectively changing the trend to negative. Scenario 1 As the dominant daily trend is up corrective sideways to down movements could potentially be viewed as buying opportunities. Scenario 2 Alternatively the breach of the 1320 support area could see Gold trade down to the prior pivot low. Daily Technical Analysis for Oil (WTI) as at 25th September 2013 DAILY OVERVIEW Trend : Short Ambush Zone : - Target 1 : - Target 2 : - Stop : - Comments Oil continues to around trend line support which is a potential area for a bounce to take place. We are monitoring a possible move up to the 8 period moving averages. Scenario 1 As the dominant daily trend is down retracements up to resistance such as the averages areas could possibly be viewed as selling opportunities. Scenario 2 Alternatively one could possibly take scalp longs up to the averages.
  25. Daily Market Outlook from ACFX 09/25/2013 Important Financial Indicators of the day CAD - 12:30 (GMT) - Core Retail Sales m/m - Forecast 0.6% - Previous -0.8% USD - 14:00 (GMT) - CB Consumer Confidence - Forecast 79.9 - Previous 81.5 Currencies ◾EUR/USD The dollar remained lower after a two-day slide versus the yen as the U.S. government moves closer to a shutdown with lawmakers wrangling over the debt limit. ◾The dollar slipped 0.1 percent to 98.76 yen as of 12:07 p.m. in Tokyo, after falling 0.6 percent in the previous two days. It fetched $1.3495 per euro after rising 0.2 percent to $1.3493 yesterday, the biggest gain since Sept. 5. ◾AUD/NZD Australia’s dollar traded 0.6 percent from an almost five-year low versus its New Zealand counterpart on bets interest rates at the nations’ central banks will diverge. ◾The Australian dollar was little changed at NZ$1.1272 as of 9:46 a.m. in Sydney from yesterday, after touching NZ$1.12 on Aug. 1, the weakest since October 2008. It traded at 94.22 U.S. cents, after gaining 0.4 percent yesterday to 94.31. New Zealand’s dollar slid 0.2 percent to 83.59 U.S. cents. ◾USD/CAD The Canadian dollar gained for the first time in three days before a report tomorrow forecast to show retail sales rebounded in July from the worst monthly decline this year. ◾The loonie, as the Canadian dollar is known for the image of the aquatic bird on the C$1 coin, gained 0.2 percent to C$1.0284 per U.S. dollar at 5 p.m. in Toronto. It reached C$1.0182 per U.S. dollar Sept. 19, the highest since June. One loonie buys 97.24 U.S. cents. Commodities ◾Oil West Texas Intermediate crude traded near the lowest price in more than six weeks amid speculation a United Nations resolution this week will reduce the likelihood of a U.S.-led military strike against Syria. ◾WTI for November delivery was at $103.46 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange, down 13 cents, at 12:15 p.m. Singapore time. The contract dropped $1.08 to $103.59 yesterday, capping a three-day losing streak. The volume of all futures traded was about 74 percent less than the 100-day average. Prices have gained 7.2 percent this quarter, the most in a year, and are up 13 percent so far in 2013. ◾Brent for November settlement slid 8 cents to $108.08 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. The European benchmark crude was at a premium of $4.62 to WTI. The spread widened for a second day to $4.57 yesterday. ◾Gold snapped a two-day decline on speculation that demand may strengthen before China’s Golden Week holiday as lower prices lure buyers. Silver, platinum and palladium increased ◾Gold for immediate delivery rose as much as 0.4 percent to $1,328.63 an ounce and traded at $1,326.61 at 9:18 a.m. in Singapore. Bullion fell for a fourth week last week, the longest losing streak since April, even after the U.S. Federal Reserve refrained from slowing its $85 billion-a-month of bond buying that helped the metal cap a 12-year bull run in 2012. Equities ◾Asian stocks fell from a four-month high amid a political showdown in Washington over the U.S. budget and as investors examined speeches from Federal Reserve officials for clues on monetary policy. ◾The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 0.9 percent to 140.08 as of 11:44 a.m. in Hong Kong, with all 10 industry groups on the gauge declining. The measure climbed 8.5 percent in September through yesterday, on course for the best month since May 2009, after the Fed maintained the pace of its stimulus program and data showed China’s economic growth is stabilizing. The yen traded at 98.73 per dollar, strengthening from the most recent close in equity markets in Tokyo last week. ◾European stocks fell for a second day, the first back-to-back losses this month, as investors weighed the German election result and monetary-policy statements from Federal Reserve officials William C. Dudley and Dennis Lockhart. ◾The Stoxx Europe 600 Index retreated 0.5 percent to 312.62 at the close of trading. The gauge has still surged 9.7 percent this quarter, on course for the biggest gain in four years. The measure advanced for a third week last week, extending its rally this year to 12 percent, after the Fed unexpectedly refrained from reducing its monthly asset purchases ◾U.S stocks fell, with the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index having the longest retreat in a month, as financial shares slumped and investors watched speeches from Federal Reserve officials for clues on monetary policies. ◾The S&P 500 (SPX) retreated 0.5 percent to 1,701.84 at 4 p.m. in New York. The benchmark gauge has lost 1.4 percent over three days, giving back all its gains from the Fed’s unexpected move last week to maintain stimulus levels. The Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 49.71 points, or 0.3 percent, to 15,401.38. About 5.8 billion shares changed hands on U.S. exchanges, in line with the three-month average.
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