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Daily Technical Analysis from ACFX 09/25/2013 Daily Technical Analysis for EURUSD as at 25th September 2013 DAILY OVERVIEW Trend : Long Ambush Zone : - Target 1 : - Target 2 : - Stop : - Comments This morning EURUSD has finally traded down to our first value area which is the 8 period moving averages. We are therefore monitoring the price action for signs of support coming in at these levels prior to a resumption of the uptrend. Further positivity for EURUSD will be in line with the change of the daily trend to up, the bullish weekly time frame the moving averages crossing positively and the break of the multiyear downward sloping trend line. As posted previously we are currently monitoring the possibility of a move to 1.3710 being a previous weekly pivot high. However as the price action is extended from the averages there is potential for EURUSD to experience a corrective down to sideways movement. As the weekly RSI has yet to show signs of confirming this move the possibility of some kind of correction should not be ruled out. Scenario 1 As the dominant daily trend is up retracements into support could be viewed as buying opportunities Scenario 2 Alternatively a breach of the 8 period moving averages could see EURUSD trading down to the 34 period moving averages. Daily Technical Analysis for GBPUSD as at 25th September 2013 DAILY OVERVIEW Trend : Long Ambush Zone : - Target 1 : - Target 2 : - Stop : - Comments Yesterday GBPUSD traded down to the 8 period moving averages where support was found. In the process a bullish hammer candle was printed. The touching of the 8 period moving averages has now pushed GBPUSD to the first value area. We are monitoring the price action at these levels for a possible up move to the previous swing high. A continued up move should put in focus the possibility of GBPUSD threatening to breach a multiyear down trend line and the 1.6400 area which coincides with a prior weekly pivot high. With the RSI and the moving averages confirming the up move and weekly time frame being in gear with the daily time frame shorting such a strong up trend can be dangerous. However with GBPUSD has yet to experience a good retracement and there is a possibility of further corrective down to sideways price action. Scenario 1 As the dominant daily trend is up retracements into support could be viewed as buying opportunities. These retracements would be ideally taken off an obvious corrective pull back to the 8 period moving averages, trend line support or previous pivot high. However there is a possibility that pull backs are limited and GBPUSD continues to break higher. In this case pullbacks and break outs could potentially be identified off lower time frames. Scenario 2 Alternatively a breach of the 8 period moving averages could see GBPUSD trade down to trend line support. Daily Technical Analysis for USDCHF as at 25th September 2013 DAILY OVERVIEW Trend : Down Ambush Zone : - Target 1 : - Target 2 : - Stop : - Comments Yesterday USDCHF continues to bounce off the lows. We are monitoring a potential move to the 8 period moving averages. To recap on the bigger picture the price action breached trend line support, horizontal support and more importantly the prior swing low which effectively changes the trend to down. The RSI is in gear with this downtrend and this is further confirmed by the averages and weekly time frame. The next support level we are monitoring is the 0.9020 area. Scenario 1 As the dominant daily trend is down corrective pullbacks could possibly offer selling opportunities with retracements back to the averages, the prior pivot low and broken support being value areas where shorts could potentially be added. However there is a possibility of USDCHF continuing to break lower following relatively minor corrective pullbacks which can be identified off intraday charts. Scenario 2 Alternatively one could potentially take scalp longs up to the previously mentioned value areas. Daily Technical Analysis for USDJPY as at 25th September 2013 DAILY OVERVIEW Trend : Long Ambush Zone : - Target 1 : - Target 2 : - Stop : - Comments USDJPY continues to experience a downside correction following the bounce off the point of intersection of the converging triangle trend lines. This move lower however has yet to breach trend line support. As USDJPY is trading above the broken converging triangle and with the RSI confirming the move and the averages and weekly time frame pointing positive, we are monitoring the strength of this bounce. If the price action can hold above the triangle and trade through last Monday’s opening downside gap there is potential that USDJPY will retest the 100 level. If USDJPY however can trade beneath the converging triangle pattern a move and breach of the prior swing low comes into focus. A breach of the prior swing low will effectively change the swing trend to negative. This scenario is currently being highlighted by downside pressure being exerted by Fibonacci resistance. Scenario 1 As the dominant daily trend is up retracements into support could be viewed as buying opportunities Scenario 2 Alternatively a move beneath the converging triangle opens up a possibility of shorting USDJPY down to the prior swing low. Daily Technical Analysis for Gold as at 25th September 2013 DAILY OVERVIEW Trend : Long Ambush Zone : - Target 1 : - Target 2 : - Stop : - Comments Yesterday Gold traded down to trend line support where buying came into the market and in the process the price action printed a bullish hammer. We are monitoring a possible move up to the 34 period moving averages. The bounce off Fibonacci and the 1320 support area has thus far failed to follow through with the price action trading back down deep into the Fibonacci area. The move down however has not retested the 1320 level. In terms of the bigger picture the daily trend is positive and the up move is in line with the hidden weekly divergence in the RSI. However the weekly time frame does continue to have a bearish outlook and the daily averages are layered negatively. We are currently monitoring a potential move to the prior swing pivot high. However a failure to follow through could see Gold breach the prior swing low and effectively changing the trend to negative. Scenario 1 As the dominant daily trend is up corrective sideways to down movements could potentially be viewed as buying opportunities. Scenario 2 Alternatively the breach of the 1320 support area could see Gold trade down to the prior pivot low. Daily Technical Analysis for Oil (WTI) as at 25th September 2013 DAILY OVERVIEW Trend : Short Ambush Zone : - Target 1 : - Target 2 : - Stop : - Comments Yesterday Oil traded down to trend line support where buying came into the market and in the process the price action printed a bullish hammer. We are monitoring a possible move up to the 8 period moving averages. Scenario 1 As the dominant daily trend is down retracements up to resistance such as the averages areas could possibly be viewed as selling opportunities. Scenario 2 Alternatively one could possibly take scalp longs up to the averages.
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Daily Market Outlook from ACFX 09/24/2013 Important Financial Indicators of the day CAD - 12:30 (GMT) - Core Retail Sales m/m - Forecast 0.6% - Previous -0.8% USD - 14:00 (GMT) - CB Consumer Confidence - Forecast 79.9 - Previous 81.5 Currencies ◾EUR/USD The dollar remained lower after a two-day slide versus the yen as the U.S. government moves closer to a shutdown with lawmakers wrangling over the debt limit. ◾The dollar slipped 0.1 percent to 98.76 yen as of 12:07 p.m. in Tokyo, after falling 0.6 percent in the previous two days. It fetched $1.3495 per euro after rising 0.2 percent to $1.3493 yesterday, the biggest gain since Sept. 5. ◾AUD/NZD Australia’s dollar traded 0.6 percent from an almost five-year low versus its New Zealand counterpart on bets interest rates at the nations’ central banks will diverge. ◾The Australian dollar was little changed at NZ$1.1272 as of 9:46 a.m. in Sydney from yesterday, after touching NZ$1.12 on Aug. 1, the weakest since October 2008. It traded at 94.22 U.S. cents, after gaining 0.4 percent yesterday to 94.31. New Zealand’s dollar slid 0.2 percent to 83.59 U.S. cents. ◾USD/CAD The Canadian dollar gained for the first time in three days before a report tomorrow forecast to show retail sales rebounded in July from the worst monthly decline this year. ◾The loonie, as the Canadian dollar is known for the image of the aquatic bird on the C$1 coin, gained 0.2 percent to C$1.0284 per U.S. dollar at 5 p.m. in Toronto. It reached C$1.0182 per U.S. dollar Sept. 19, the highest since June. One loonie buys 97.24 U.S. cents. Commodities ◾Oil West Texas Intermediate crude traded near the lowest price in more than six weeks amid speculation a United Nations resolution this week will reduce the likelihood of a U.S.-led military strike against Syria. ◾WTI for November delivery was at $103.46 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange, down 13 cents, at 12:15 p.m. Singapore time. The contract dropped $1.08 to $103.59 yesterday, capping a three-day losing streak. The volume of all futures traded was about 74 percent less than the 100-day average. Prices have gained 7.2 percent this quarter, the most in a year, and are up 13 percent so far in 2013. ◾Brent for November settlement slid 8 cents to $108.08 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. The European benchmark crude was at a premium of $4.62 to WTI. The spread widened for a second day to $4.57 yesterday. ◾Gold snapped a two-day decline on speculation that demand may strengthen before China’s Golden Week holiday as lower prices lure buyers. Silver, platinum and palladium increased. ◾Gold for immediate delivery rose as much as 0.4 percent to $1,328.63 an ounce and traded at $1,326.61 at 9:18 a.m. in Singapore. Bullion fell for a fourth week last week, the longest losing streak since April, even after the U.S. Federal Reserve refrained from slowing its $85 billion-a-month of bond buying that helped the metal cap a 12-year bull run in 2012. Equities ◾Asian stocks fell from a four-month high amid a political showdown in Washington over the U.S. budget and as investors examined speeches from Federal Reserve officials for clues on monetary policy. ◾The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 0.9 percent to 140.08 as of 11:44 a.m. in Hong Kong, with all 10 industry groups on the gauge declining. The measure climbed 8.5 percent in September through yesterday, on course for the best month since May 2009, after the Fed maintained the pace of its stimulus program and data showed China’s economic growth is stabilizing. The yen traded at 98.73 per dollar, strengthening from the most recent close in equity markets in Tokyo last week. ◾European stocks fell for a second day, the first back-to-back losses this month, as investors weighed the German election result and monetary-policy statements from Federal Reserve officials William C. Dudley and Dennis Lockhart. ◾The Stoxx Europe 600 Index retreated 0.5 percent to 312.62 at the close of trading. The gauge has still surged 9.7 percent this quarter, on course for the biggest gain in four years. The measure advanced for a third week last week, extending its rally this year to 12 percent, after the Fed unexpectedly refrained from reducing its monthly asset purchases ◾U.S stocks fell, with the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index having the longest retreat in a month, as financial shares slumped and investors watched speeches from Federal Reserve officials for clues on monetary policies. ◾The S&P 500 (SPX) retreated 0.5 percent to 1,701.84 at 4 p.m. in New York. The benchmark gauge has lost 1.4 percent over three days, giving back all its gains from the Fed’s unexpected move last week to maintain stimulus levels. The Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 49.71 points, or 0.3 percent, to 15,401.38. About 5.8 billion shares changed hands on U.S. exchanges, in line with the three-month average. [/b]
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Daily Technical Analysis from ACFX 09/24/2013 Daily Technical Analysis for EURUSD as at 24th September 2013 DAILY OVERVIEW Trend : Long Ambush Zone : - Target 1 : - Target 2 : - Stop : - Comments Yesterday EURUSD broke down from the tight two day trading range however this downside momentum has failed to follow through in this morning session. Furthermore there has not to date been a broad correction down to key support value areas such as the prior pivot high, moving average or trend line support. We are therefore monitoring the price for signs of possible break out or break downs from this level during the opening of the London session. Further positivity for EURUSD will be in line with the change of the daily trend to up, the bullish weekly time frame the moving averages crossing positively and the break of the multiyear downward sloping trend line. As posted previously we are currently monitoring the possibility of a move to 1.3710 being a previous weekly pivot high. However as the price action is extended from the averages there is potential for EURUSD to experience a corrective down to sideways movement. As the weekly RSI has yet to show signs of confirming this move the possibility of some kind of correction should not be ruled out. Scenario 1 As the dominant daily trend is up retracements into support could be viewed as buying opportunities. However due to the strength of the move, the possibility of EURUSD continuing to break higher until it reaches the 1.3700 area should not be discounted with these moves probably following minor intraday corrections which could be identified off lower time frame charts. Scenario 2 Alternatively as EURUSD has experienced a strong move higher, bargain hunters may view areas such as the previous swing high, broken trend line resistance and trend line support as areas to add positions. If this scenario plays out there is potential for shorts to be taken with a view of hitting these support targets. However it must be stressed that fighting such a dominant up trend can be a danger to your wealth. Daily Technical Analysis for GBPUSD as at 24th September 2013 DAILY OVERVIEW Trend : Long Ambush Zone : - Target 1 : - Target 2 : - Stop : - Comments Yesterday GBPUSD traded and closed higher following its 180 pips correction from its highs. The pre London open has however thus far been quiet with no signs yet of following through with higher market prices. The correction although strong did not reach the preferred retracement levels for bargain hunters which are key support levels such as the 8 period moving averages, trend line support or previous pivot high. Of these support levels only the 8 period moving averages has come under threat with the price action approaching but not reaching this level. As the price action continues to trade within a tight opening range and is encompassed by Friday’s price range we are monitoring the possibility of a London session upside breakout. A continued up move should put in focus the possibility of GBPUSD threatening to breach a multiyear down trend line and the 1.6400 area which coincides with a prior weekly pivot high. With the RSI and the moving averages confirming the up move and weekly time frame being in gear with the daily time frame shorting such a strong up trend can be dangerous. However with GBPUSD has yet to experience a good retracement and there is a possibility of further corrective down to sideways price action. Scenario 1 As the dominant daily trend is up retracements into support could be viewed as buying opportunities. These retracements would be ideally taken off an obvious corrective pull back to the 8 period moving averages, trend line support or previous pivot high. However there is a possibility that pull backs are limited and GBPUSD continues to break higher. In this case pullbacks and break outs could potentially be identified off lower time frames. Scenario 2 Alternatively as the price action is extended from the averages short scalping opportunities could potentially become available with targets being the value areas where longs will add positions such as the 8 period moving averages, trend line support or previous pivot high. Daily Technical Analysis for USDCHF as at 24th September 2013 DAILY OVERVIEW Trend : Down Ambush Zone : - Target 1 : - Target 2 : - Stop : - Comments Yesterday USDCHF continued to trade lower only for buyers to intervene support the market. USDCHF eventually closed higher. This morning’s price action has been muted with the market probably waiting for London to open before deciding on which direction to take. To recap on the bigger picture the price action breached trend line support, horizontal support and more importantly the prior swing low which effectively changes the trend to down. The RSI is in gear with this downtrend and this is further confirmed by the averages and weekly time frame. The next support level we are monitoring is the 0.9020 area. Scenario 1 As the dominant daily trend is down corrective pullbacks could possibly offer selling opportunities with retracements back to the averages, the prior pivot low and broken support being value areas where shorts could potentially be added. However there is a possibility of USDCHF continuing to break lower following relatively minor corrective pullbacks which can be identified off intraday charts. Scenario 2 Alternatively one could potentially take scalp longs up to the previously mentioned value areas. Daily Technical Analysis for USDJPY as at 24th September 2013 DAILY OVERVIEW Trend : Long Ambush Zone : - Target 1 : - Target 2 : - Stop : - Comments Yesterday USDJPY continued to experience a downside correction following the bounce off the point of intersection of the converging triangle trend lines. The downside momentum has not as yet followed through into the European session with the price action trading higher. As USDJPY is trading above the broken converging triangle and with the RSI confirming the move and the averages and weekly time frame pointing positive, we are monitoring the strength of this bounce. If the price action can hold above the triangle and trade through last Monday’s opening downside gap there is potential that USDJPY will retest the 100 level. If USDJPY however can trade beneath the converging triangle pattern a move and breach of the prior swing low comes into focus. A breach of the prior swing low will effectively change the swing trend to negative. This scenario is currently being highlighted by downside pressure being exerted by Fibonacci resistance. Scenario 1 As the dominant daily trend is up retracements into support could be viewed as buying opportunities Scenario 2 Alternatively a move beneath the converging triangle opens up a possibility of shorting USDJPY down to the prior swing low. Daily Technical Analysis for Gold as at 24th September 2013, DAILY OVERVIEW Trend : Long Ambush Zone : - Target 1 : - Target 2 : - Stop : - Comments The bounce off Fibonacci and the 1320 support area has thus far failed to follow through with the price action trading back down deep into the Fibonacci area. The move down however has not retested the 1320 level. In terms of the bigger picture the daily trend is positive and the up move is in line with the hidden weekly divergence in the RSI. However the weekly time frame does continue to have a bearish outlook and the daily averages are layered negatively. We are currently monitoring a potential move to the prior swing pivot high. However a failure to follow through could see Gold breach the prior swing low and effectively changing the trend to negative. Scenario 1 As the dominant daily trend is up corrective sideways to down movements could potentially be viewed as buying opportunities. Scenario 2 Alternatively the breach of the 1320 support area could see Gold trade down to the prior pivot low. Daily Technical Analysis for Oil (WTI) as at 24th September 2013 DAILY OVERVIEW Trend : Short Ambush Zone : - Target 1 : - Target 2 : - Stop : - Comments Yesterday Oil continued to trade lower and in the process traded through the previous swing low pivot which effectively changed the trend to down. Both Fibonacci support and the positive hidden RSI divergence have been negated and the moving averages have crossed negatively. Scenario 1 As the dominant daily trend is down retracements up to resistance such as the averages areas could possibly be viewed as selling opportunities. However there is a possibility that Oil breaks lower during the London session and an attempt is made to reach trend line support. Such break downs can potentially be identified off lower time frame charts. Scenario 2 Alternatively one could possibly take scalp longs up to the averages.
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Daily Market Outlook from ACFX 09/23/2013 Important Financial Indicators of the day EUR - 07:00 (GMT) - French Flash Manufacturing PMI - Forecast 49.3 - Previous 48.9 EUR - 07:30 (GMT) - German Flash Manufacturing PMI - Forecast 52.3 - Previous 51.8 USD - 13:00 (GMT) - ECB President Draghi Speaks Currencies ◾EUR/USD The euro was 0.3 percent from a seven-month high against the dollar after Angela Merkel won an overwhelming endorsement from German voters, putting her on course for the biggest election tally since Helmut Kohl’s post-reunification victory of 1990. ◾The 17-nation currency traded at $1.3526 at 12 p.m. in Singapore from $1.3524 at the end of last week, near the seven-month high of $1.3569 reached Sept. 19. It slipped 0.2 percent to 134.07 yen. The euro has strengthened 2.5 percent this year against the greenback and 17 percent versus the yen. ◾AUD/USD Australia’s currency climbed against 15 of its 16 major counterparts after data on China’s manufacturing surpassed economist estimates, boosting prospects for the South Pacific nation’s commodity exports. ◾The Aussie advanced 0.3 percent to 94.22 U.S. cents as of 12:30 p.m. in Sydney after falling 1.3 percent in the prior two sessions. The New Zealand dollar was little changed at 83.65 U.S. cents after losing 0.1 percent on Sept. 20. ◾GBP/USD The pound strengthened for a third week against the dollar after the Federal Reserve unexpectedly refrained from slowing debt purchases that have devalued the U.S. currency ◾The pound advanced 0.9 percent this week to $1.6022 as of 5:02 p.m. London time yesterday after climbing to $1.6163 on Sept. 18, the highest level since Jan. 11. The U.K. currency dropped 0.8 percent to 84.40 pence per euro. Commodities ◾Oil West Texas Intermediate crude fluctuated as signs Chinese manufacturing expanded the most since March countered easing concern that conflict in Syria will spread and disrupt oil supplies. ◾WTI for November delivery fell as much as 33 cents to $104.42 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange and was at $104.72 a barrel at 11:17 a.m. Singapore time. The October contract, which expired Sept. 20, closed at $104.67 a barrel, the lowest settlement since Aug. 21. The volume of all futures traded was about 43 percent below the 100-day average. ◾Brent for November settlement lost 8 cents, or 0.1 percent, to $109.14 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. The contract closed 46 cents higher at $109.22 a barrel on Sept. 20. The European benchmark was at a premium of $4.40 to WTI, down from $4.47 at the end of last week. ◾Gold will extend losses into next year as the U.S. economy improves, according to Citigroup Inc., which said the Federal Reserve’s surprise decision to maintain stimulus for now hasn’t changed the fundamental outlook. ◾Bullion may drop below $1,250 an ounce before the end of the year as economic data strengthens and investors expect the Fed to start reducing its asset purchases, analysts Ed Morse and Heath Jansen said in a report today. Bullion will average $1,250 next year, down from $1,405 in 2013, the analysts wrote Equities ◾Asian stocks were little changed, with a regional benchmark index trading near a four-month high, after a Chinese manufacturing index jumped more than forecast. ◾The MSCI Asia Pacific excluding Japan Index climbed less than 0.1 percent to 469.44 as of 1:15 p.m. in Hong Kong. The gauge reached a four-month high on Sept. 19 after the Federal Reserve maintained its bond-buying program. Japan’s market is closed today for a holiday. ◾European stocks climbed for a third straight week after the Federal Reserve unexpectedly refrained from reducing its monthly bond purchases and Lawrence H. Summers withdrew from consideration as chairman of the central bank. ◾The Stoxx Europe 600 Index advanced 0.9 percent to 314.2 this past week. The equity gauge has surged 5.7 percent in September, putting it on course for the biggest monthly gain in almost two years. The measure has climbed 12 percent in 2013 as the euro area emerged from recession and central banks pledged to keep borrowing costs low to support the global economy.
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Daily Technical Analysis from ACFX 09/23/2013 Daily Technical Analysis for EURUSD as at 23rd September 2013 DAILY OVERVIEW Trend : Long Ambush Zone : - Target 1 : - Target 2 : - Stop : - Comments EURUSD continues to trade within a tight trading range and at the highs of the large spike up. Furthermore there has not to date been a broad correction down to key support value areas such as the prior pivot high, moving average or trend line support. We are therefore monitoring the price for signs of possible break out or break downs from this level during the opening of the London session. Further positivity for EURUSD will be in line with the change of the daily trend to up, the bullish weekly time frame the moving averages crossing positively and the break of the multiyear downward sloping trend line. As posted previously we are currently monitoring the possibility of a move to 1.3710 being a previous weekly pivot high. However as the price action is extended from the averages there is potential for EURUSD to experience a corrective down to sideways movement. As the weekly RSI has yet to show signs of confirming this move the possibility of some kind of correction should not be ruled out. Scenario 1 As the dominant daily trend is up retracements into support could be viewed as buying opportunities. However due to the strength of the move, the possibility of EURUSD continuing to break higher until it reaches the 1.3700 area should not be discounted with these moves probably following minor intraday corrections which could be identified off lower time frame charts. Scenario 2 Alternatively as EURUSD has experienced a strong move higher, bargain hunters may view areas such as the previous swing high, broken trend line resistance and trend line support as areas to add positions. If this scenario plays out there is potential for shorts to be taken with a view of hitting these support targets. However it must be stressed that fighting such a dominant up trend can be a danger to your wealth. Daily Technical Analysis for GBPUSD as at 23rd September 2013 DAILY OVERVIEW Trend : Long Ambush Zone : - Target 1 : - Target 2 : - Stop : - Comments GBPUSD has traded down around 180 pips from the highs. This correction is to be expected after such a stellar up move .The move down does appear large. However in relative terms when compared to the proceeding uptrend is actually minor. The preferred retracement levels for bargain hunters would probably be to key support levels such as the 8 period moving averages, trend line support or previous pivot high. Of these support levels only the 8 period moving averages has come under threat with the price action approaching but not reaching this level. This morning’s price action is trading within a tight opening range and is encompassed by Friday’s price range. We are monitoring the possibility of a London session upside breakout. A continued up move should put in focus the possibility of GBPUSD threatening to breach a multiyear down trend line and the 1.6400 area which coincides with a prior weekly pivot high. With the RSI and the moving averages confirming the up move and weekly time frame being in gear with the daily time frame shorting such a strong up trend can be dangerous. However with GBPUSD has yet to experience a good retracement and there is a possibility of further corrective down to sideways price action. Scenario 1 As the dominant daily trend is up retracements into support could be viewed as buying opportunities. These retracements would be ideally taken off an obvious corrective pull back to the 8 period moving averages, trend line support or previous pivot high. However there is a possibility that pull backs are limited and GBPUSD continues to break higher. In this case pullbacks and break outs could potentially be identified off lower time frames. Scenario 2 Alternatively as the price action is extended from the averages short scalping opportunities could potentially become available with targets being the value areas where longs will add positions such as the 8 period moving averages, trend line support or previous pivot high. Daily Technical Analysis for USDCHF as at 23rd September 2013 DAILY OVERVIEW Trend : Down Ambush Zone : - Target 1 : - Target 2 : - Stop : - Comments USDCHF has continued to trade lower albeit at a much slower pace. The market is now trading within a very tight range near to the lows of this down move. We are monitoring the London open for a possible indication of which way the market will break. To recap on the bigger picture the price action breached trend line support, horizontal support and more importantly the prior swing low which effectively changes the trend to down. The RSI is in gear with this downtrend and this is further confirmed by the averages and weekly time frame. The next support level we are monitoring is the 0.9020 area. Scenario 1 As the dominant daily trend is down corrective pullbacks could possibly offer selling opportunities with retracements back to the averages, the prior pivot low and broken support being value areas where shorts could potentially be added. However there is a possibility of USDCHF continuing to break lower following relatively minor corrective pullbacks which can be identified off intraday charts. Scenario 2 Alternatively one could potentially take scalp longs up to the previously mentioned value areas. Daily Technical Analysis for USDJPY as at 23rd September 2013 DAILY OVERVIEW Trend : Long Ambush Zone : - Target 1 : - Target 2 : - Stop : - Comments USDJPY experienced a minor 70 pip downward correction following the strong bounce off the point of intersection of the converging triangle trend lines. Across the markets the USD is showing signs of weakness, especially against the majors such as GBPUSD and EURUSD. In the case of EURUSD and USDCHF this weakness in the USD has effectively changed the trends. However, USDJPY has stubbornly put up a resistance and maintained an uptrend. With the RSI confirming the move and the averages and weekly time frame pointing positive, we are monitoring the strength of this bounce. If the price action can hold above the triangle and trade through last Monday’s opening downside gap there is potential that USDJPY will retest the 100 level. If USDJPY however can trade beneath the converging triangle pattern a move and breach of the prior swing low comes into focus. A breach of the prior swing low will effectively change the swing trend to negative. This scenario is currently being highlighted by downside pressure being exerted by Fibonacci resistance. Scenario 1 As the dominant daily trend is up retracements into support could be viewed as buying opportunities Scenario 2 Alternatively a move beneath the converging triangle opens up a possibility of shorting USDJPY down to the prior swing low. Daily Technical Analysis for Gold as at 23rd September 2013 DAILY OVERVIEW Trend : Long Ambush Zone : - Target 1 : - Target 2 : - Stop : - Comments The bounce off Fibonacci and the 1320 support area has thus far failed to follow through with the price action trading back down deep into the Fibonacci area. The move down however has not retested the 1320 level. In terms of the bigger picture the daily trend is positive and the up move is in line with the hidden weekly divergence in the RSI. However the weekly time frame does continue to have a bearish outlook and the daily averages are layered negatively. We are currently monitoring a potential move to the prior swing pivot high. However a failure to follow through could see Gold breach the prior swing low and effectively changing the trend to negative. Scenario 1 As the dominant daily trend is up corrective sideways to down movements could potentially be viewed as buying opportunities. Scenario 2 Alternatively the breach of the 1320 support area could see Gold trade down to the prior pivot low. Daily Technical Analysis for Oil (WTI) as at 23rd September 2013 DAILY OVERVIEW Trend : Long Ambush Zone : - Target 1 : - Target 2 : - Stop : - Comments Oil on Friday broke the bottom off the 104.80 to 110.70 range. The downside correction would appear to be gathering momentum with the averages also turning negative however a further move south will need to overcome support offered by the Fibonacci support area and the positive hidden divergence of the weekly RSI. As the swing bias remains positive we are monitoring the bounce off Fibonacci support and a potential move to the prior swing high. A failure to follow through with a strong up move could however see Oil trade down the previous pivot low which would effectively change the trend to short. Scenario 1 As the dominant daily trend is up retracements to support areas could possibly be viewed as buying opportunities. Scenario 2 Alternatively a breach of current support could see Oil trade down to the previous swing low.
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Daily Technical Analysis from ACFX 09/18/2013 Daily Technical Analysis for EURUSD as at 18th September 2013 DAILY OVERVIEW Trend : Short Ambush Zone : - Target 1 : - Target 2 : - Stop : - Comments EURUSD is this morning trading unchanged from the open after yesterdays up day. EURUSD continues to trade above Monday mornings opening upside gap and the moving averages have just crossed positively. This positive price activity is in line with the uptrend that is found on the weekly time frame. We are currently monitoring the possibility that EURUSD either trades up to and breaches the prior swing high or attempts to print a higher low prior to trading higher. However as the swing bias is still negative we are monitoring a potential move to the area of the prior swing low. In terms of the bigger picture the swing bias has changed to negative. The following factors are confirming or reinforcing this market bias: 1. The swing bias is negative. 2. The price action is trading at moving average resistance which could be viewed as over bought. 3. The price action is trading within Fibonacci resistance. 4. The RSI is showing signs of negative divergence. Alternative counter trend bullish factors: 1. The weekly time frame has a positive swing bias. 2. The averages have crossed positively. 3. The price action has breached trend line resistance. Scenario 1 As the dominant daily trend is down retracements into resistance could be viewed as selling opportunities Scenario 2 Alternatively if EURUSD can breach Fibonacci resistance there is a possibility that the move continues to the previous swing high. Daily Technical Analysis for GBPUSD as at 18th September 2013 DAILY OVERVIEW Trend : Long Ambush Zone : - Target 1 : - Target 2 : - Stop : - Comments GBPUSD is this morning trading higher from the open after yesterdays up day. GBPSD continues to trade above Mondays opening upside gap and 1.5825 support level. We are monitoring the price action for continued positive momentum and a potential move to trend line resistance. However as the price action is looking extended then the averages a corrective down to sideways move is a possibility. In terms of the bigger picture the swing bias is positive. The following factors are confirming or reinforcing this market bias: 1. The swing bias has turned positive. 2. The price action has bounced off positively layered averages. 3. The averages have crossed positively. 4. The RSI is confirming the move. 5. The weekly time frame is in gear with the daily time frame. Alternative counter trend bearish factors: 1. GBPUSD is trading within Fibonacci resistance. 2. The price action is extended from the averages. 3. The price action is approaching trend line resistance. Scenario 1 As the dominant daily trend is up retracements into support could be viewed as buying opportunities. Scenario 2 Alternatively as the price action is extended from the averages short scalping opportunities could potentially become available. Daily Technical Analysis for USDCHF as at 18th September 2013 DAILY OVERVIEW Trend : Long Ambush Zone : - Target 1 : - Target 2 : - Stop : - Comments USDCHF is this morning trading unchanged from the open after yesterdays down day USDCHF has made a weak attempt to fill its downside gap and is finding some initial resistance at the 34 period moving averages. If this resistance can be breached there is a possibility that USDCHF bounces off Fibonacci support and trade in the direction of the prior swing high. However a breach of the 0.9200 support area could see USDCHF trade towards the prior swing low. In terms of the bigger picture the swing bias has changed to positive. The following factors are confirming or reinforcing this market bias: 1. The swing bias is positive. 2. The RSI is in gear with the move. 3. The averages are positively layered. Alternative counter trend bearish factors: 1. The weekly time frame continues to have a negative bias. Scenario 1 As the dominant daily trend is up corrective pullbacks could possibly offer buying opportunities. Scenario 2 Alternatively as the 34 period moving averages as been breached could now see USDCHF move in the direction of the prior swing low. Daily Technical Analysis for USDJPY as at 18th September 2013 DAILY OVERVIEW Trend : Long Ambush Zone : - Target 1 : - Target 2 : - Stop : - Comments USDJPY is this morning higher from the open after yesterdays up day. USDJPY has filled its downside gap following the printing of a bullish hammer candle. We are monitoring the price action to see if support can hold prior to a retest of the 100 level. However a breach of the 34 period moving averages could see USDJPY trading down towards the prior swing low. In terms of the bigger picture the swing bias is positive. The following factors are confirming or reinforcing this market bias: 1. The swing bias positive. 2. The price action has printed a higher low. 3. The price action has breached the upper trend line of a converging triangle. 4. The moving averages have crossed positively. 5. The price action is trading into the moving averages which could be viewed as oversold. 6. The RSI is confirming the move. Alternative counter trend bearish factors: 1. The 100 level is offering resistance. 2. Fibonacci resistance could offer down side pressure. Scenario 1 As the dominant daily trend is up retracements into support could be viewed as buying opportunities Scenario 2 Alternatively a breach of the 34 period moving averages could offer a shorting opportunity to the prior swing low. Daily Technical Analysis for Gold as at 18th September 2013 DAILY OVERVIEW Trend : Long Ambush Zone : - Target 1 : - Target 2 : - Stop : - Comments Gold is this morning trading lower from the open after yesterdays down day. Gold has experienced a broad downside correction and is now breaching the bottom of Fibonacci support. We are monitoring to see if the price action can hold above the last swing low prior to a potential move to the swing high. However if the correction gains momentum there is a possibility that Gold attempts to breach the prior pivot swing low which will effectively change the trend to short. In terms of the bigger picture the swing bias has reversed to positive. The following factors are confirming or reinforcing this market bias: 1. The swing bias is positive. 2. The price action has printed a higher low. 3. The moving averages are layered positively. 4. The price action is trading above the 1322 support level. 5. The RSI is in gear with the move. 6. The price action has entered Fibonacci support. Alternative counter trend bearish factors: 1. The weekly time frame continues to point down. Scenario 1 As the dominant daily trend is up corrective sideways to down movements could potentially be viewed as buying opportunities. Scenario 2 Alternatively the breach of the 34 moving averages could see Gold trade down to the 1300 area. Daily Technical Analysis for Oil (WTI) as at 18th September 2013 DAILY OVERVIEW Trend : Long Ambush Zone : - Target 1 : - Target 2 : - Stop : - Comments Oil is this morning trading higher from the open after yesterdays down day. Oil continues to trade within the 104.80 to 110.70 range. The price action within this range has been very choppy. Although there is a prominent RSI negative divergence, the move down thus far has been weak. Furthermore the weak correction corresponds with a positive hidden divergence of the RSI which could potentially indicates that the uptrend will stay intact. As the swing bias remains positive for the time being we are monitoring a potential bounce off Fibonacci support and a move to the prior swing high. Furthermore moving average support has been breached which could be taken as a sign that Oil is oversold. However if the price action can hold beneath the averages for a sustained period of time will focus more of our attention to the short side. A breach of the prior swing low will reverse the trend to short. In terms of the bigger picture the swing bias is positive. The following factors are confirming or reinforcing this market bias: 1. The swing bias is positive. 2. Oil is trading beneath the averages which could be a sign that this instrument is oversold. 3. The prior down spike has been reversed. 4. The averages are layered positively. 5. The price action is trading above the large monthly converging triangle. Alternative counter trend bearish factors: 1. The weekly RSI diverging negatively. 2. Moving average support has been breached. Scenario 1 As the dominant daily trend is up retracements to support areas could possibly be viewed as buying opportunities. Scenario 2 Alternatively a breach of current support could see Oil trade down to the previous swing low.
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Daily Market Outlook from ACFX 09/17/2013 Important Financial Indicators of the day GBP - 08:30 (GMT) - CPI y/y - Forecast 2.7% - Previous 2.8% EUR - 09:00 (GMT) - German ZEW Economic Sentiment - Forecast 45.3 - Previous 42.0 CAD - 12:30 (GMT) - Manufacturing Sales m/m - Forecast 0.6% - Previous -0.5% USD - 12:30 (GMT) - Core CPI m/m - Forecast 0.2% - Previous 0.2% Currencies ◾EUR/USD The dollar traded 0.4 percent from its lowest level in almost three weeks against the euro as investors await a decision on U.S. monetary policy from Federal Reserve officials beginning a two-day meeting today. The dollar fetched $1.3330 per euro as of 1:27 p.m. in Tokyo, little changed from yesterday, when it touched $1.3386, the weakest since Aug. 28. The greenback added 0.2 percent to 99.25 yen. The euro rose 0.2 percent to 132.34 yen. ◾GBP/USD The pound rose to an eight-month high versus the dollar as Lawrence Summers withdrew from the race to lead the Federal Reserve, ending bets he would undo the central bank’s policies aimed at holding down borrowing costs. ◾The pound climbed 0.4 percent to $1.5935 at 4:16 p.m. London time after rising to $1.5963, the highest since Jan. 18. Sterling was little changed at 83.83 pence per euro after appreciating to 83.57 pence on Sept. 13, also the strongest level since Jan. 18. ◾USD/CAD The Canadian dollar increased to its strongest level in a month amid speculation the U.S. Federal Reserve won’t put an early end to its expansionary monetary policy, boosting riskier assets. ◾Canada’s currency appreciated 0.3 percent to C$1.0324 per U.S. dollar at 5 p.m. in New York after earlier touching C$1.0283, the strongest level since Aug. 12. One Canadian dollar purchases 96.88 U.S. cents. Commodities ◾Oil West Texas Intermediate crude slid for a third day on speculation that the threat of an imminent U.S.-led military strike against Syria is receding and as Libya’s oil production recovers. ◾WTI for October delivery declined as much as 87 cents to $105.72 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange and was at $105.86 at 11:32 a.m. Singapore time. The contract dropped 1.5 percent to $106.59 yesterday, the close lowest since Aug. 26. The volume of all futures traded was about 3 percent less than the 100-day average. ◾Brent for November settlement slid as much as 62 cents, or 0.6 percent, to $109.45 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. The European benchmark crude was at a premium of $4.14 to WTI for the same month. The spread narrowed for the first time in four days yesterday to $3.88. ◾Gold swung between gains and losses as investors weighed the outlook for U.S. stimulus with the Federal Reserve to commence its policy meeting today. ◾Bullion for immediate delivery advanced 0.1 percent to $1,314.46 an ounce at 10:39 a.m. in Singapore after losing and gaining at least 0.3 percent. Prices fell to $1,303.43 yesterday, the lowest since Aug. 8. Gold for December delivery declined 0.3 percent to $1,314.10 an ounce on the Comex. Equities ◾Asian stocks fell, with the benchmark regional index declining from a four-month high, as the Federal Reserve begins a two-day policy meeting at which it is forecast to reduce the pace of its U.S. bond buying. ◾The MSCI Asia Pacific Index slipped 0.3 percent to 138.32 as of 11:38 a.m. in Hong Kong as nine of the 10 industry groups on the gauge declined. The Federal Open Market Committee meets today and tomorrow to consider whether to taper its $85 billion-a-month in bond buying. ◾U.S stocks rose, sending the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index to a five-week high and within 1 percent of a record, after Lawrence Summers withdrew his bid to be Federal Reserve chairman and tensions over dealing with Syria’s chemical weapons eased. ◾The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index added 0.6 percent to 1,697.60 at 4 p.m. in New York, after earlier rising as much as 1 percent. The Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 118.72 points, or 0.8 percent, to 15,494.78. About 5.7 billion shares changed hands on U.S. exchanges, 4.5 percent below the three-month average.
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Daily Technical Analysis from ACFX 09/17/2013 Daily Technical Analysis for EURUSD as at 17th September 2013 DAILY OVERVIEW Trend : Short Ambush Zone : - Target 1 : - Target 2 : - Stop : - Comments EURUSD is this morning trading higher from the open after yesterdays down day. After attempting to back fill yesterdays upside gap EURUSD is this morning trading higher. This positive price activity is in line with the uptrend that is found on the weekly time frame. We are currently monitoring the possibility that EURUSD either trades up to and breaches the prior swing high or attempts to print a higher low prior to trading higher. However as the swing bias is still negative we are monitoring a potential move to the area of the prior swing low. In terms of the bigger picture the swing bias has changed to negative. The following factors are confirming or reinforcing this market bias: 1. The swing bias is negative. 2. The price action is trading at moving average resistance which could be viewed as over bought. 3. The price action is trading within Fibonacci resistance. 4. The averages have crossed negatively. 5. The RSI is showing signs of negative divergence. Alternative counter trend bullish factors: 1. The weekly time frame has a positive swing bias. 2. The price action has breached trend line resistance. Scenario 1 As the dominant daily trend is down retracements into resistance could be viewed as selling opportunities Scenario 2 Alternatively if EURUSD can breach Fibonacci resistance there is a possibility that the move continues to the previous swing high. Daily Technical Analysis for GBPUSD as at 17th September 2013 DAILY OVERVIEW Trend : Long Ambush Zone : - Target 1 : - Target 2 : - Stop : - Comments GBPUSD is this morning trading higher from the open after yesterdays down day. After attempting to back fill yesterdays upside gap GBPSD is this morning trading higher. This morning GBPUSD has opened and continues to trade above the 1.5825 support level. We are monitoring the price action for continued positive momentum and a potential move to trend line resistance. However as the price action is looking extended then the averages a corrective down to sideways move is a possibility. In terms of the bigger picture the swing bias is positive. The following factors are confirming or reinforcing this market bias: 1. The swing bias has turned positive. 2. The price action has bounced off positively layered averages. 3. The averages have crossed positively. 4. The RSI is confirming the move. 5. The weekly time frame is in gear with the daily time frame. Alternative counter trend bearish factors: 1. GBPUSD is trading within Fibonacci resistance. 2. The price action is extended from the averages. 3. The price action is approaching trend line resistance. Scenario 1 As the dominant daily trend is up retracements into support could be viewed as buying opportunities. Scenario 2 Alternatively as the price action is extended from the averages short scalping opportunities could potentially become available. Daily Technical Analysis for USDCHF as at 17th September 2013 DAILY OVERVIEW Trend : Long Ambush Zone : - Target 1 : - Target 2 : - Stop : - Comments USDCHF is this morning trading lower from the open after yesterdays up day This morning USDCHF is attempting to fill its downside gap but is finding some initial resistance at the 34 period moving averages. If this resistance can be breached there is a possibility that USDCHF bounces off Fibonacci support and trade in the direction of the prior swing high. However a breach of the 0.9200 support area could see USDCHF trade towards the prior swing low. In terms of the bigger picture the swing bias has changed to positive. The following factors are confirming or reinforcing this market bias: 1. The swing bias is positive. 2. The RSI is in gear with the move. 3. The averages are positively layered. Alternative counter trend bearish factors: 1. The weekly time frame continues to have a negative bias. Scenario 1 As the dominant daily trend is up corrective pullbacks could possibly offer buying opportunities. Scenario 2 Alternatively as the 34 period moving averages as been breached could now see USDCHF move in the direction of the prior swing low. Daily Technical Analysis for USDJPY as at 17th September 2013 DAILY OVERVIEW Trend : Long Ambush Zone : - Target 1 : - Target 2 : - Stop : - Comments USDJPY is this morning higher from the open after yesterdays up day. This morning USDJPY filled its downside gap following yesterdays printing of a bullish hammer candle. We are monitoring the price to see if support can hold prior to a retest of the 100 level. However a breach of the 34 period moving averages could see USDJPY trading down towards the prior swing low. In terms of the bigger picture the swing bias is positive. The following factors are confirming or reinforcing this market bias: 1. The swing bias positive. 2. The price action has printed a higher low. 3. The price action has breached the upper trend line of a converging triangle. 4. The moving averages have crossed positively. 5. The price action is trading into the moving averages which could be viewed as oversold. 6. The RSI is confirming the move. Alternative counter trend bearish factors: 1. The 100 level is offering resistance. 2. Fibonacci resistance could offer down side pressure. Scenario 1 As the dominant daily trend is up retracements into support could be viewed as buying opportunities Scenario 2 Alternatively a breach of the 34 period moving averages could offer a shorting opportunity to the prior swing low. Daily Technical Analysis for Gold as at 17th September 2013 DAILY OVERVIEW Trend : Long Ambush Zone : - Target 1 : - Target 2 : - Stop : - Comments Gold is this morning trading higher from the open after yesterdays down day. Gold has experienced a broad downside correction and is now trading deep into Fibonacci support. We are monitoring the price action for a potential move to the prior swing high. However if the correction gains momentum there is a possibility that Gold attempts to breach the prior pivot swing low which will effectively change the trend to short. In terms of the bigger picture the swing bias has reversed to positive. The following factors are confirming or reinforcing this market bias: 1. The swing bias is positive. 2. The price action has printed a higher low. 3. The moving averages are layered positively. 4. The price action is trading above the 1322 support level. 5. The RSI is in gear with the move. 6. The price action has entered Fibonacci support. Alternative counter trend bearish factors: 1. The weekly time frame continues to point down. Scenario 1 As the dominant daily trend is up corrective sideways to down movements could potentially be viewed as buying opportunities. Scenario 2 Alternatively the breach of the 34 moving averages could see Gold trade down to the 1300 area. Daily Technical Analysis for Oil (WTI) as at 17th September 2013 DAILY OVERVIEW Trend : Long Ambush Zone : - Target 1 : - Target 2 : - Stop : - Comments Oil is this morning trading lower from the open after yesterdays down day. Oil continues to trade within the 104.80 to 110.70 range. The price action within this range has been very choppy. Although there is a prominent RSI negative divergence, the move down thus far has been weak. Furthermore the weak correction corresponds with a positive hidden divergence of the RSI which could potentially indicate that the uptrend will stay intact. As the swing bias remains positive for the time being we are monitoring a potential bounce off moving average and Fibonacci support and a move to the prior swing high. A breach of the prior swing low will reverse the trend to short. In terms of the bigger picture the swing bias is positive. The following factors are confirming or reinforcing this market bias: 1. The swing bias is positive. 2. Oil is trading above the averages. 3. The prior down spike has been reversed. 4. The averages are layered positively. 5. The price action is trading above the large monthly converging triangle. Alternative counter trend bearish factors: 1. The weekly RSI diverging negatively. Scenario 1 As the dominant daily trend is up retracements to support areas could possibly be viewed as buying opportunities. Scenario 2 Alternatively a breach of current support could see Oil trade down to the previous swing low.
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Daily Technical Analysis from ACFX 09/16/2013 Daily Technical Analysis for EURUSD as at 16th September 2013 DAILY OVERVIEW Trend : Short Ambush Zone : - Target 1 : - Target 2 : - Stop : - Comments EURUSD is this morning trading unchanged from the open after Fridays down day. This morning EURUSD has gapped higher on the open and is now trading deep within the Fibonacci resistance area. This upside gap could be an indication that EURUSD is attempting to turn positive which would be in line with the current weekly trend. However as the swing bias is still negative we are monitoring a potential move to the area of the prior swing low. In terms of the bigger picture the swing bias has changed to negative. The following factors are confirming or reinforcing this market bias: 1. The swing bias is negative. 2. The price action is trading at moving average resistance which could be viewed as over bought. 3. The price action is trading within Fibonacci resistance. 4. The averages have crossed negatively. 5. The RSI is showing signs of negative divergence. Alternative counter trend bullish factors: 1. The weekly time frame has a positive swing bias. 2. The price action has breached trend line resistance. Scenario 1 As the dominant daily trend is down retracements into resistance could be viewed as selling opportunities Scenario 2 Alternatively if EURUSD can breach Fibonacci resistance there is a possibility that the move continues to the previous swing high. Daily Technical Analysis for GBPUSD as at 16th September 2013 DAILY OVERVIEW Trend : Long Ambush Zone : - Target 1 : - Target 2 : - Stop : - Comments GBPUSD is this morning trading higher from the open after Fridays up day. This morning GBPUSD has opened with an upside gap and broken through the 1.5825 resistance level. We are monitoring the price action for continued positive momentum and a potential move to trend line resistance. However as the price action is looking extended then the averages a corrective down to sideways move is a possibility. In terms of the bigger picture the swing bias is positive. The following factors are confirming or reinforcing this market bias: 1. The swing bias has turned positive. 2. The price action has bounced off positively layered averages. 3. The averages have crossed positively. 4. The RSI is confirming the move. 5. The weekly time frame is in gear with the daily time frame. Alternative counter trend bearish factors: 1. GBPUSD is trading within Fibonacci resistance. 2. The price action is extended from the averages. 3. The price action is approaching trend line resistance. Scenario 1 As the dominant daily trend is up retracements into support could be viewed as buying opportunities. Scenario 2 Alternatively as the price action is extended from the averages short scalping opportunities could potentially become available. Daily Technical Analysis for USDCHF as at 16th September 2013 DAILY OVERVIEW Trend : Long Ambush Zone : - Target 1 : - Target 2 : - Stop : - Comments USDCHF is this morning trading higher from the open after Friday’s down day This morning USDCHF has opened with a downside gap and is now trading deep within Fibonacci support and approaching horizontal support. If support can hold then we will monitor a possible move to the prior swing high. However a breach of support could see USDCHF trade towards the prior swing low. In terms of the bigger picture the swing bias has changed to positive. The following factors are confirming or reinforcing this market bias: 1. The swing bias is positive. 2. The RSI is in gear with the move. 3. The averages are positively layered. Alternative counter trend bearish factors: 1. The weekly time frame continues to have a negative bias. Scenario 1 As the dominant daily trend is up corrective pullbacks could possibly offer buying opportunities. Scenario 2 Alternatively as the 34 period moving averages as been breached could now see USDCHF move in the direction of the prior swing low. Daily Technical Analysis for USDJPY as at 16th September 2013 DAILY OVERVIEW Trend : Long Ambush Zone : - Target 1 : - Target 2 : - Stop : - Comments USDJPY is this morning unchanged from the open after Fridays down day. This morning USDJPY has opened with a downside gap near to the 34 period moving averages. We are monitoring the price to see if support can hold prior to a retest of the 100 level. However a breach of the 34 period moving averages could see USDJPY trading down towards the prior swing low. In terms of the bigger picture the swing bias is positive. The following factors are confirming or reinforcing this market bias: 1. The swing bias positive. 2. The price action has printed a higher low. 3. The price action has breached the upper trend line of a converging triangle. 4. The moving averages have crossed positively. 5. The price action is trading into the moving averages which could be viewed as oversold. 6. The RSI is confirming the move. Alternative counter trend bearish factors: 1. The 100 level is offering resistance. 2. Fibonacci resistance could offer down side pressure. Scenario 1 As the dominant daily trend is up retracements into support could be viewed as buying opportunities Scenario 2 Alternatively a breach of the 34 period moving averages could offer a shorting opportunity to the prior swing low. Daily Technical Analysis for Gold as at 16th September 2013 DAILY OVERVIEW Trend : Long Ambush Zone : - Target 1 : - Target 2 : - Stop : - Comments Gold is this morning trading lower from the open after Fridays up day. Gold has experienced a broad downside correction and is now trading deep into Fibonacci support. Friday Gold tried to trade lower but support came into the market. This can be seen by the formation of bullish hammer candle. We are monitoring the price action for a potential move to the prior swing high. However if the correction gains momentum there is a possibility that Gold attempts to breach the prior pivot swing low which will effectively change the trend to short. In terms of the bigger picture the swing bias has reversed to positive. The following factors are confirming or reinforcing this market bias: 1. The swing bias is positive. 2. The price action has printed a higher low. 3. The moving averages are layered positively. 4. The price action is trading above the 1322 support level. 5. The RSI is in gear with the move. 6. The price action has entered Fibonacci support. Alternative counter trend bearish factors: 1. The weekly time frame continues to point down. Scenario 1 As the dominant daily trend is up corrective sideways to down movements could potentially be viewed as buying opportunities. Scenario 2 Alternatively the breach of the 34 moving averages could see Gold trade down to the 1300 area. Daily Technical Analysis for Oil (WTI) as at 16th September 2013 DAILY OVERVIEW Trend : Long Ambush Zone : - Target 1 : - Target 2 : - Stop : - Comments Oil is this morning trading higher from the open after Fridays down day. Following the strong bounce off moving average support area Oil failed to maximize its gains and eventually has traded back down to the averages. A prominent RSI negative divergence is a warning sign that a broader correction might be on the cards. However as the swing bias remains positive for the time being we are monitoring a potential bounce off moving average and Fibonacci support and a move to the prior swing high. In terms of the bigger picture the swing bias is positive. The following factors are confirming or reinforcing this market bias: 1. The swing bias is positive. 2. Oil is trading above the averages. 3. The prior down spike has been reversed. 4. The averages are layered positively. 5. The price action is trading above the large monthly converging triangle. Alternative counter trend bearish factors: 1. The weekly RSI diverging negatively. Scenario 1 As the dominant daily trend is up retracements to support areas could possibly be viewed as buying opportunities. Scenario 2 Alternatively a breach of current support could see Oil trade down to the previous swing low.
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Daily Market Outlook from ACFX 09/13/2013 Important Financial Indicators of the day USD - 13:30 (GMT) - Core Retail Sales m/m - Forecast 0.3% - Previous 0.5% USD - 13:30 (GMT) - PPI m/m - Forecast 0.2% - Previous 0.0% USD - 13:30 (GMT) - Retail Sales m/m - Forecast 0.5% - Previous 0.2% USD - 14:55 (GMT) - Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment - Forecast 82.6 - Previous 82.1 Currencies ◾EUR/USD The dollar advanced against most of its major peers before a government report forecast to show U.S. retail sales accelerated. ◾The dollar rose 0.3 percent to 99.81 yen at 7:15 a.m. in London, set for a 0.7 percent weekly gain. It advanced 0.2 percent to $1.3267 per euro from $1.3299 yesterday, paring to 0.7 percent its decline since Sept. 6. The greenback yesterday touched $1.3325, matching the weakest since Aug. 29. ◾GBP/USD The pound was set for a second weekly advance versus the dollar before a construction output report analysts said will add to signs the U.K. economy is gaining momentum. ◾The pound was little changed at $1.5789 as of 7:32 a.m. London time after rising to $1.5840 yesterday, the highest since Feb. 8. It has gained 1 percent this week. ◾USD/JPY The Bank of Japan’s unprecedented bond-buying program designed to reach an inflation target of 2 percent in two years, combined with the Federal Reserve’s forecast trimming of monthly bond purchases, is putting pressure on the yen. ◾The Japan’s currency slid 0.1 percent to 99.66 per dollar as of 1:41 p.m. in Tokyo. That compares with an average of 99.71 in the past decade. Commodities ◾Oil West Texas Intermediate oil swung between gains and losses as the U.S. and Russia began talks on a plan for Syria to surrender its chemical weapons to avert a strike that has fanned concern of exports being disrupted. ◾Brent for October settlement, which expires today, gained $1.13, or 1 percent, to $112.63 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange yesterday. The more active November future increased $1.34 to $111.53. The front-month European benchmark crude ended the session at a premium of $4.03 to WTI. ◾Gold slumped to a five week low, heading for its biggest weekly loss in more than two months, on speculation the U.S. Federal Reserve will taper asset purchases and as Goldman Sachs Group Inc. predicted further declines. ◾Bullion for immediate delivery fell as much as 1 percent to $1,308.18 an ounce, the lowest since Aug. 9, and was at $1,311.98 by 2:06 p.m. in Singapore. Prices earlier climbed 0.7 percent. The metal fell 3.2 percent yesterday and is down 5.7 percent this week, the most since the period to June 21. Equities ◾Asian stocks sank, with the regional benchmark index headed for the biggest drop since September 2011, as Japanese shares plummeted after China’s manufacturing output unexpectedly contracted and the yen strengthened. ◾The MSCI Asia Pacific Index declined 3.7 percent to 138.16 as of 3:57 p.m. in Tokyo, with about 12 shares falling for each that rose. The measure surged 11 percent this year through yesterday as Japanese shares rallied as the Bank of Japan stepped up stimulus efforts and the U.S. economy improved. Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said yesterday a premature withdrawal of quantitative easing would put the U.S. economic recovery at risk. ◾European stocks dropped as concern grew the Federal Reserve will scale back its stimulus measures if the U.S. economy improves and as data showed Chinese manufacturing is shrinking. U.S. index futures and Asian shares also fell as Japan’s Topix Index tumbled the most in two years. ◾The Stoxx 600 Index dropped 1.6 percent to 305.52 at 8:05 a.m. in London. The benchmark gauge rose 0.2 percent yesterday, extending its highest level since June 2008, after Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said in a testimony to a Joint Committee of Congress in Washington that reducing stimulus measures too soon would endanger economic recovery. ◾U.S stocks stocks fell, with benchmark indexes retreating from record highs, as concern grew that the Federal Reserve will scale back its stimulus efforts if the labor market continues to improve. ◾The S&P (SPX) 500 fell 0.8 percent to 1,655.35 at 4 p.m. in New York, after rallying as much as 1.1 percent earlier. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 80.41 points, or 0.5 percent, to 15,307.17. About 8.3 billion shares changed hands today, 32 percent above the three-month average.
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Daily Technical Analysis from ACFX 09/13/2013 Daily Technical Analysis for EURUSD as at 13th September 2013 DAILY OVERVIEW Trend : Short Ambush Zone : - Target 1 : - Target 2 : - Stop : - Comments EURUSD is this morning trading lower from the open after yesterdays down day. Yesterday EURUSD found resistance within the Fibonacci area and is this negativity has continued into this morning’s session. As the swing bias is still negative we are monitoring a potential move to the area of the prior swing low. However the weekly time does continue to point up which could indicate that this change of daily trend is nothing more than a strong corrective move In terms of the bigger picture the swing bias has changed to negative. The following factors are confirming or reinforcing this market bias: 1. The swing bias is negative. 2. The price action is trading at moving average resistance which could be viewed as over bought. 3. The price action is trading within Fibonacci resistance. 4. The averages have crossed negatively. 5. The RSI is showing signs of negative divergence. Alternative counter trend bullish factors: 1. The weekly time frame has a positive swing bias. 2. The price action has breached trend line resistance. Scenario 1 As the dominant daily trend is down retracements into resistance could be viewed as selling opportunities Scenario 2 Alternatively if EURUSD can breach Fibonacci resistance there is a possibility that the move continues to the previous swing high. Daily Technical Analysis for GBPUSD as at 12th September 2013 DAILY OVERVIEW Trend : Long Ambush Zone : - Target 1 : - Target 2 : - Stop : - Comments GBPUSD is this morning trading lower from the open after yesterdays down day. GBPUSD continues to find resistance at the 1.5825 level. This level coincides with both a prior daily and weekly pivot swing low that was breached during recent collapse of GBPUSD. We are monitoring the price action for continued positive momentum. However as the price action is looking extended then the averages a corrective down to sideways move is a possibility. In terms of the bigger picture the swing bias is positive. The following factors are confirming or reinforcing this market bias: 1. The swing bias has turned positive. 2. The price action has bounced off positively layered averages. 3. The averages have crossed positively. 4. The RSI is confirming the move. 5. The weekly time frame is in gear with the daily time frame. Alternative counter trend bearish factors: 1. GBPUSD is trading within Fibonacci resistance. 2. The price action is extended from the averages. 3. The price action is trading into an area of resistance. Scenario 1 As the dominant daily trend is up retracements into support could be viewed as buying opportunities. Scenario 2 Alternatively as the price action is extended from the averages short scalping opportunities could potentially become available. Daily Technical Analysis for USDCHF as at 13th September 2013 DAILY OVERVIEW Trend : Long Ambush Zone : - Target 1 : - Target 2 : - Stop : - Comments USDCHF is this morning trading higher from the open after yesterday’s unchanged day USDCHF continues bounced off Fibonacci support. We are monitoring a potential move to the previous swing high. In terms of the bigger picture the swing bias has changed to positive. The following factors are confirming or reinforcing this market bias: 1. The swing bias is positive. 2. The RSI is in gear with the move. 3. The averages are positively layered. Alternative counter trend bearish factors: 1. The weekly time frame continues to have a negative bias. Scenario 1 As the dominant daily trend is up corrective pullbacks could possibly offer buying opportunities. Scenario 2 Alternatively a breach of the 34 period moving averages could see USDCHF move in the direction of the prior swing low. Daily Technical Analysis for USDJPY as at 13th September 2013 DAILY OVERVIEW Trend : Long Ambush Zone : - Target 1 : - Target 2 : - Stop : - Comments USDJPY is this morning higher from the open after yesterdays down day. Following a downward correction USDJPY continues to trade around the 8 period moving averages. It would appear the 100 area and Fibonacci resistance is continuing to hold back further upward momentum albeit at least for the time being. We are monitoring the extent of this correction. If USDJPY does not breach the 28th August lows then there is potential of a higher low being printed prior to a further attempt being made on the 100 level. A breach of the 100 level will then focus our attention on the 101.50 level which coincides with a prior swing high. This could open the way for a potential move to the May 2013 highs as there will be cleared sky for this move to happen. However the current resistance levels are now in focus and we are monitoring the extent of any correction. A breach of the prior swing low would of course turn the swing bias negative. In terms of the bigger picture the swing bias is positive. The following factors are confirming or reinforcing this market bias: 1. The swing bias positive. 2. The price action has printed a higher low. 3. The price action has breached the upper trend line of a converging triangle. 4. The moving averages have crossed positively. 5. The price action is trading into the moving averages which could be viewed as oversold. 6. The RSI is confirming the move. Alternative counter trend bearish factors: 1. The 100 level is offering resistance. 2. Fibonacci resistance could offer down side pressure. Scenario 1 As the dominant daily trend is up retracements into support could be viewed as buying opportunities Scenario 2 Alternatively Fibonacci resistance and the 100 level could offer selling opportunities down to the 34 period moving averages and prior swing low support. Daily Technical Analysis for Gold as at 13th September 2013 DAILY OVERVIEW Trend : Long Ambush Zone : - Target 1 : - Target 2 : - Stop : - Comments Gold is this morning trading lower from the open after yesterdays down day. The downward correction of Gold has continued with yesterdays move down being very strong. However Gold continues to have a positive swing bias. As the price action is now trading deep into Fibonacci support and extended from the averages we will monitor the strength of any bounce. If the correction gains momentum there is a possibility that Gold attempts to breach the prior pivot swing low which will effectively change the trend to short. In terms of the bigger picture the swing bias has reversed to positive. The following factors are confirming or reinforcing this market bias: 1. The swing bias is positive. 2. The price action has printed a higher low. 3. The moving averages are layered positively. 4. The price action is trading above the 1322 support level. 5. The RSI is in gear with the move. 6. The price action has entered Fibonacci support. Alternative counter trend bearish factors: 1. The weekly time frame continues to point down. Scenario 1 As the dominant daily trend is up corrective sideways to down movements could potentially be viewed as buying opportunities. Scenario 2 Alternatively the breach of the 34 moving averages could see Gold trade down to the 1300 area. Daily Technical Analysis for Oil (WTI) as at 13th September 2013 DAILY OVERVIEW Trend : Long Ambush Zone : - Target 1 : - Target 2 : - Stop : - Comments Oil is this morning trading lower from the open after yesterdays up day. Following the strong bounce off moving average support area Oil failed to maximize its gains and eventually has traded back down to the averages. A prominent RSI negative divergence is a warning sign that a broader correction might be on the cards. However as the swing bias remains positive for the time being we are monitoring a potential bounce off moving average and Fibonacci support and a move to the prior swing high. In terms of the bigger picture the swing bias is positive. The following factors are confirming or reinforcing this market bias: 1. The swing bias is positive. 2. Oil is trading above the averages. 3. The prior down spike has been reversed. 4. The averages are layered positively. 5. The price action is trading above the large monthly converging triangle. Alternative counter trend bearish factors: 1. The weekly RSI diverging negatively. Scenario 1 As the dominant daily trend is up retracements to support areas could possibly be viewed as buying opportunities. Scenario 2 Alternatively a breach of current support could see Oil trade down to the previous swing low.
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Daily Market Outlook from ACFX 09/12/2013 Important Financial Indicators of the day GBP - 10:00 (GMT) - Inflation Report Hearings EUR - 12:40 (GMT) - ECB President Draghi Speaks USD - 13:30 (GMT) - Unemployment Claims - Forecast 332K - Previous 323K Currencies ◾EUR/USD The dollar remained lower against most of its major peers as traders speculated whether the U.S. economy is strong enough for Federal Reserve policy makers to consider a reduction in stimulus when they meet next week. The greenback traded near the lowest this month against the euro before a report forecast to show U.S. jobless claims rose. ◾The dollar was little changed at $1.3315 per euro as of 1:27 p.m. in Tokyo from yesterday, when it touched $1.3325, the weakest since Aug. 29. ◾GBP/USD The pound strengthened to a seven-month high against the dollar after a government report showed unemployment unexpectedly declined, adding to signs the U.K. economy is gaining momentum. ◾The pound advanced 0.5 percent to $1.5811 at 4:42 p.m. London time after rising to $1.5827, the highest since Feb. 8. ◾AUD/USD Australia’s dollar slid versus all its major counterparts after data showed the nation’s payrolls unexpectedly fell and unemployment climbed to a four-year high. ◾The Australia’s currency lost 0.8 percent to 92.52 U.S. cents as of 3:22 p.m. in Sydney, after earlier reaching 93.54 cents, the strongest since June 19. Commodities ◾Oil West Texas Intermediate crude swung between gains and losses after Saudi Arabia, the biggest producer in the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, said the global oil market is well-supplied. ◾WTI for October delivery was at $107.59 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange, up 3 cents, at 1:36 p.m. Singapore time. The contract climbed 17 cents to $107.56 yesterday. The volume of all futures traded was about 54 percent less than the 100-day average. ◾Gold retreated to a three-week low on speculation that the U.S. Federal Reserve will commit to reducing stimulus next week. Silver fell, while platinum declined to the lowest in a month. ◾Gold for immediate delivery dropped as much as 0.8 percent to $1,354.51 an ounce, the lowest level since Aug. 20, and traded at $1,358.42 at 2:07 p.m. in Singapore. Bullion for December delivery lost as much as 0.7 percent to $1,353.80 an ounce on the Comex in New York, also the lowest since Aug. 2 Equities ◾Asian stocks. Asia’s benchmark stock index swung between gains and losses after Japanese machinery orders accelerated less than expected and as investors await the outcome of the Federal Reserve’s meeting next week. ◾The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell less than 0.1 percent to 137.55 as of 3:30 p.m. in Tokyo, trading near a three-month high. About five shares rose for every four that fell on the measure, which swung between gains of 0.1 percent and losses of 0.2 percent. The index climbed 6.6 percent in the past 10 days. ◾European stocks rose, sending the benchmark index to a five-year high, after investors said the region’s economy was improving. The Australian dollar fell for the first time in a week and the nation’s bonds rallied after unemployment increased. The yen strengthened and metals dropped. ◾The Stoxx The Stoxx Europe 600 Index advanced 0.1 percent by 8:24 a.m. in London, while Standard & Poor’s 500 Index contracts lost 0.1 percent. ◾U.S stocks rose, sending the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index to a one-month high, as diminishing concern over a military strike against Syria offset Apple Inc.’s biggest decline since April. ◾The S&P 500 rose 0.3 percent to 1,689.13 at 4 p.m. in New York, the seventh straight winning session and the highest level since Aug. 13.
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Daily Technical Analysis from ACFX 09/12/2013 Daily Technical Analysis for EURUSD as at 12th September 2013 DAILY OVERVIEW Trend : Short Ambush Zone : - Target 1 : - Target 2 : - Stop : - Comments EURUSD is this morning trading lower from the open after yesterdays up day. Yesterday EURUSD continued to move further into the Fibonacci resistance area and is this morning trading above both averages and trend line resistance. That the swing bias is still negative and EURUSD has entered a potential Fibonacci sell zone we are monitoring the price action for any signs of negativity at this levels which could ultimately push this pair lower. However the weekly frame time does continue to point up which could indicate that this change of daily trend is nothing more than a strong corrective move In terms of the bigger picture the swing bias has changed to negative. The following factors are confirming or reinforcing this market bias: 1. The swing bias is negative. 2. The price action is trading at moving average resistance which could be viewed as over bought. 3. The price action is trading within Fibonacci resistance. 4. The averages have crossed negatively. 5. The RSI is showing signs of negative divergence. Alternative counter trend bullish factors: 1. The weekly time frame has a positive swing bias. 2. The price action has breached trend line resistance. Scenario 1 As the dominant daily trend is down retracements into resistance could be viewed as selling opportunities Scenario 2 Alternatively if EURUSD can breach Fibonacci resistance there is a possibility that the move continues to the previous swing high. Daily Technical Analysis for GBPUSD as at 12th September 2013 DAILY OVERVIEW Trend : Long Ambush Zone : - Target 1 : - Target 2 : - Stop : - Comments GBPUSD is this morning trading unchanged from the open after yesterdays up day. GBPUSD yesterday experience an extremely good up day as it spiked through the high of the 17th June. The price action is now slamming into the 1.5825 area which is an important area of resistance which coincides with both a prior daily and weekly pivot swing low that was breached during recent collapse of GBPUSD. We are monitoring the price action for continued positive momentum. However as the price action is looking extended then the averages a corrective down to sideways move is a possibility. In terms of the bigger picture the swing bias is positive. The following factors are confirming or reinforcing this market bias: 1. The swing bias has turned positive. 2. The price action has bounced off positively layered averages. 3. The averages have crossed positively. 4. The RSI is confirming the move. 5. The weekly time frame is in gear with the daily time frame. Alternative counter trend bearish factors: 1. GBPUSD is trading within Fibonacci resistance. 2. The price action is extended from the averages. 3. The price action is trading into an area of resistance. Scenario 1 As the dominant daily trend is up retracements into support could be viewed as buying opportunities. Scenario 2 Alternatively as the price action is extended from the averages short scalping opportunities could potentially become available. Daily Technical Analysis for USDCHF as at 12th September 2013 DAILY OVERVIEW Trend : Long Ambush Zone : - Target 1 : - Target 2 : - Stop : - Comments USDCHF is this morning trading higher from the open after yesterdays down day USDCHF continues bounced off Fibonacci support. We are monitoring a potential move to the previous swing high. In terms of the bigger picture the swing bias has changed to positive. The following factors are confirming or reinforcing this market bias: 1. The swing bias is positive. 2. The RSI is in gear with the move. 3. The averages are positively layered. Alternative counter trend bearish factors: 1. The weekly time frame continues to have a negative bias. Scenario 1 As the dominant daily trend is up corrective pullbacks could possibly offer buying opportunities. Scenario 2 Alternatively a breach of the 34 period moving averages could see USDCHF move in the direction of the prior swing low. Daily Technical Analysis for USDJPY as at 12th September 2013 DAILY OVERVIEW Trend : Long Ambush Zone : - Target 1 : - Target 2 : - Stop : - Comments USDJPY is this morning higher lower from the open after yesterdays down day. Yesterday USDJPY retrace to the 8 period moving averages and this negativity has continued this morning as the price action is now attempting to trade down to the 34 period moving averages. This move does coincide with a bounce off the 100 areas and Fibonacci resistance. We are monitoring the extent of this correction. If USDJPY does not breach the 28th August lows then there is potential of a higher low being printed prior to a further attempt being made on the 100 level. A breach of the 100 level will then focus our attention on the 101.50 level which coincides with a prior swing high. This could open the way for a potential move to the May 2013 highs as there will be cleared sky for this move to happen. However the current resistance levels are now in focus and we are monitoring the extent of any correction. A breach of the prior swing low would of course turn the swing bias negative. In terms of the bigger picture the swing bias is positive. The following factors are confirming or reinforcing this market bias: 1. The swing bias positive. 2. The price action has printed a higher low. 3. The price action has breached the upper trend line of a converging triangle. 4. The moving averages have crossed positively. 5. The price action is trading into the moving averages which could be viewed as oversold. 6. The RSI is confirming the move. Alternative counter trend bearish factors: 1. The 100 level is offering resistance. 2. Fibonacci resistance could offer down side pressure. Scenario 1 As the dominant daily trend is up retracements into support could be viewed as buying opportunities Scenario 2 Alternatively Fibonacci resistance and the 100 level could offer selling opportunities down to the 34 period moving averages and prior swing low support. Daily Technical Analysis for Gold as at 12th September 2013 DAILY OVERVIEW Trend : Long Ambush Zone : - Target 1 : - Target 2 : - Stop : - Comments Gold is this morning trading lower from the open after yesterday’s unchanged day. Gold this morning is experiencing a broader correction as it trades lower. The move thus far has breached the 34 period moving averages and has importantly entered into a potential Fibonacci buy zone. We are monitoring the price action for a potential bounce off these levels and a subsequent move to the prior swing high. However if the correction gains momentum there is a possibility that Gold attempts to breach the prior pivot swing low which will effectively change the trend to short. In terms of the bigger picture the swing bias has reversed to positive. The following factors are confirming or reinforcing this market bias: 1. The swing bias is positive. 2. The price action has printed a higher low. 3. The moving averages are layered positively. 4. The price action is trading above the 1322 support level. 5. The RSI is in gear with the move. 6. The price action has entered Fibonacci support. Alternative counter trend bearish factors: 1. The weekly time frame continues to point down. Scenario 1 As the dominant daily trend is up corrective sideways to down movements could potentially be viewed as buying opportunities. Scenario 2 Alternatively a break beneath the 34 moving averages could see Gold trade down to the 1300 area. Daily Technical Analysis for Oil (WTI) as at 12th September 2013 DAILY OVERVIEW Trend : Long Ambush Zone : - Target 1 : - Target 2 : - Stop : - Comments Oil is this morning trading lower from the open after yesterdays up day. Following the strong bounce off moving average support area Oil failed to maximize its gains and eventually has traded back down to the averages. A prominent RSI negative divergence is a warning sign that a broader correction might be on the cards. However as the swing bias remains positive for the time being we are monitoring a potential bounce off moving average and Fibonacci support and a move to the prior swing high. In terms of the bigger picture the swing bias is positive. The following factors are confirming or reinforcing this market bias: 1. The swing bias is positive. 2. Oil is trading above the averages. 3. The prior down spike has been reversed. 4. The averages are layered positively. 5. The price action is trading above the large monthly converging triangle. Alternative counter trend bearish factors: 1. The weekly RSI diverging negatively. Scenario 1 As the dominant daily trend is up retracements to support areas could possibly be viewed as buying opportunities. Scenario 2 Alternatively a breach of current support could see Oil trade down to the previous swing low.
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Daily Market Outlook from ACFX 09/10/2013 Currencies ◾EUR/USD The dollar traded at almost its lowest level this month as the U.S. weighs a plan to confiscate Syrian chemical weapons that may diffuse a potential military strike, reducing demand for haven assets. ◾The yen dropped 0.7 percent to 132.85 per euro after sliding to the weakest since May 22. Japan’s currency fell 0.7 percent to 100.27 per dollar after depreciating to the least since July 25. The euro was little changed at $1.3248. ◾AUD/USD The Aussie may climb toward 93.07 U.S. cents if it can breach key resistance levels after rallying twice last month from about 89 cents, forming a so-called double-bottom base, according to Junichi Ishikawa, a Tokyo-based analyst at IG Markets Securities Ltd. The currency traded at 92.57 U.S. cents as of 4:50 p.m. in Sydney. ◾The Aussie, the world’s fifth-most-traded currency, reached a three-year low of 88.48 cents on Aug. 5. Its 8.1 percent drop in 2013 is the second-biggest decline among 10 developed-market currencies tracked by Bloomberg Correlation-Weighted Indexes, trailing only the yen’s 10 percent plunge. ◾USD/CAD The Canadian dollar remained higher as housing starts were 180,291 at a seasonally adjusted annual pace in August, at almost the 2013 monthly average in another sign the economy is strengthening. ◾The loonie, as the Canadian dollar is known for the image of the aquatic bird on the C$1 coin, rose 0.3 percent to C$1.0335 per U.S. dollar at 8:38 a.m. in Toronto, the highest level since Aug. 19. One loonie buys 96.76 U.S. cents. Commodities ◾Oil West Texas Intermediate dropped a second day after reports that Syria agreed to a Russian plan to surrender its chemical weapons, easing concern of a U.S. attack that may escalate the conflict and cut Middle Eastern exports. ◾WTI for October delivery slid as much as $2.24 to $107.28 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange, the lowest since Sept. 5, and was at $107.38 as of 1:43 p.m. London time. The volume of all futures traded was about 40 percent above the 100-day average ◾Brent for October settlement decreased as much as $1.91, or 1.7 percent, to $111.81 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. That’s the lowest since Aug. 27. The European benchmark was at a premium of $4.53 to WTI. The spread was $4.20 yesterday, the narrowest since Aug. 19. ◾Gold fell in New York as Russia’s bid to get Syria to put its chemical weapons under international control cut demand for a protection of wealth. Silver dropped and palladium traded near a two-month low. ◾Bullion futures reached a three-month high of $1,434 an ounce on Aug. 28 amid concern the U.S. will attack Syria for its alleged use of chemical weapons against civilians. Syria accepted Russia’s proposal on its weapons, Syrian Foreign Minister Walid al-Muallem said today during a trip to Moscow. Equities ◾Asian stocks rose, extending the longest rally in the benchmark index this year, as China’s industrial production and retail sales beat estimates, adding to signs the world’s second-largest economy is rebounding. ◾The MSCI Asia Pacific Index advanced 1.2 percent to 137.2 as of 7:28 p.m. in Tokyo, capping a ninth day of gains and the highest close since July 23. The gauge last week posted its biggest weekly advance since April on signs the global economy is recovering. Reports today showed factory output in China accelerated by 10.4 percent in August from a year earlier, while retail sales increased 13.4 percent, exceeding economist estimates ◾European stocks rose to a three-month high as Chinese economic data beat estimates and the U.S. offered to defer an attack on Syria if it complied with a Russian proposal to give up chemical weapons. U.S. index futures and Asian shares also climbed. ◾The Stoxx Europe 600 Index added 1.1 percent to 309.33 at 12:02 p.m. in London, for its highest level since May 28. The gauge closed little changed yesterday after a report showed Chinese exports rose more than expected and investors awaited a U.S. decision this week on possible air strikes against Syria. Standard & Poor’s 500 Index futures gained 0.5 percent, while the MSCI Asia Pacific Index climbed 1.2 percent. ◾U.S stocks climbed, extending the longest winning streak for the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index since July, as data showed China’s economy is improving amid signs of easing tensions over Syria. ◾The S&P 500 advanced 0.5 percent to 1,679.91 at 9:48 a.m. in New York. The index has gained for six straight days, the most since July 15. The Dow rose 76.55 points, or 0.5 percent, to 15,139.67 today. Trading in S&P 500 stocks was 45 percent higher than the 30-day average at this time of day.
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Daily Technical Analysis from ACFX 09/10/2013 Daily Technical Analysis for EURUSD as at 10th September 2013 DAILY OVERVIEW Trend : Short Ambush Zone : - Target 1 : - Target 2 : - Stop : - Comments EURUSD is this morning trading higher from the open after yesterdays up day. EURUSD has broken through the 8 period moving and has traded up to the 34 period moving averages and Fibonacci resistance. We are monitoring the price for any signs of negativity at this levels which could ultimately push EURUSD lower. However the weekly time does continue to point up which could indicate that this change of daily trend is nothing more than a strong corrective move In terms of the bigger picture the swing bias has changed to negative. The following factors are confirming or reinforcing this market bias: 1. The swing bias is negative. 2. The price action is trading at moving average resistance. 3. The price action is trading at Fibonacci resistance. 4. The averages have crossed negatively. 5. The RSI is showing signs of negative divergence. Alternative counter trend bullish factors: 1. The weekly time frame has a positive swing bias. 2. The price action has breached trend line resistance. Scenario 1 As the dominant daily trend is down retracements into resistance could be viewed as selling opportunities Scenario 2 Alternatively if EURUSD can breach Fibonacci resistance there is a possibility that the move continues to the previous swing high. Daily Technical Analysis for GBPUSD as at 10th September 2013 DAILY OVERVIEW Trend : Long Ambush Zone : - Target 1 : - Target 2 : - Stop : - Comments GBPUSD is this morning trading higher from the open after yesterdays up day. GBPUSD yesterday breached prior swing high and is now trading deep into Fibonacci resistance. We are monitoring the price action for continued positive momentum. In terms of the bigger picture the swing bias is positive. The following factors are confirming or reinforcing this market bias: 1. The swing bias has turned positive. 2. The price action has bounced off positively layered averages. 3. The averages have crossed positively. 4. The RSI is confirming the move. 5. The weekly time frame is in gear with the daily time frame. Alternative counter trend bearish factors: 1. GBPUSD is trading within Fibonacci resistance. 2. The price action is extended from the averages. Scenario 1 As the dominant daily trend is up retracements into support could be viewed as buying opportunities. Scenario 2 Alternatively as the price action is extended from the averages short scalping opportunities could potentially become available. Daily Technical Analysis for USDCHF as at 10th September 2013 DAILY OVERVIEW Trend : Long Ambush Zone : - Target 1 : - Target 2 : - Stop : - Comments USDCHF is this morning trading lower from the open after yesterdays down day USDCHF has traded down to Fibonacci support. A breach of this area would focus our attention on a move to the previous swing low. However the swing bias is up and therefore our attention for the moment continues to have a slightly positive bias. In terms of the bigger picture the swing bias has changed to positive. The following factors are confirming or reinforcing this market bias: 1. The swing bias is positive. 2. The RSI is in gear with the move. 3. The averages are positively layered. Alternative counter trend bearish factors: 1. The weekly time frame continues to have a negative bias. Scenario 1 As the dominant daily trend is up corrective pullbacks could possibly offer buying opportunities. Scenario 2 Alternatively a breach of the 8 period moving averages could potential see USDCHF trade down to the 34 period moving averages. Daily Technical Analysis for USDJPY as at 10th September 2013 DAILY OVERVIEW Trend : Long Ambush Zone : - Target 1 : - Target 2 : - Stop : - Comments USDJPY is this morning higher unchanged from the open after yesterdays down day. Following Friday’s corrective downwards move to the 8 period moving averages USDJPY is experiencing a moderate bounce. We are monitoring a potential breach of the 100 level. However the price action continues to trade within Fibonacci resistance In terms of the bigger picture the swing bias has turned positive. The following factors are confirming or reinforcing this market bias: 1. The swing bias positive. 2. The price action has printed a higher low. 3. The price action has breached the upper trend line of a converging triangle. 4. The moving averages have crossed positively. 5. The price action is trading above the moving averages. 6. The RSI is confirming the move. Alternative counter trend bearish factors: 1. The 100 level could offer a barrier to further upside movement. 2. Fibonacci resistance could offer down side pressure. Scenario 1 As the dominant daily trend is up retracements into support could be viewed as buying opportunities Scenario 2 Alternatively Fibonacci resistance could offer selling opportunities. Daily Technical Analysis for Gold as at 10th September 2013 DAILY OVERVIEW Trend : Long Ambush Zone : - Target 1 : - Target 2 : - Stop : - Comments Gold is this morning trading lower from the open after yesterdays down day. Gold has bounced off the 34 period moving averages following its corrective retracement. We are monitoring the price action for a potential move to the prior swing high. In terms of the bigger picture the swing bias has reversed to positive. The following factors are confirming or reinforcing this market bias: 1. The swing bias is positive. 2. The price action has printed a higher low. 3. The moving averages are layered positively. 4. The price action is trading above the 1322 support level. 5. The RSI is in gear with the move. Alternative counter trend bearish factors: 1. The weekly time frame continues to point down. Scenario 1 As the dominant daily trend is up corrective sideways to down movements could potentially be viewed as buying opportunities. Scenario 2 Alternatively a break beneath the 34 moving averages could see Gold trade down to the 1300 area. Daily Technical Analysis for Oil (WTI) as at 10th September 2013 DAILY OVERVIEW Trend : Long Ambush Zone : - Target 1 : - Target 2 : - Stop : - Comments Oil is this morning trading lower from the open after yesterdays down day. Following the strong bounce off moving average support area Oil failed to maximize its gain and eventually has traded back down to the averages. A prominent RSI negative divergence is a warning sign that a broader correction might be on the cards. However as the swing bias remains positive for the time being we are monitoring a potential move to the prior swing high. In terms of the bigger picture the swing bias is positive. The following factors are confirming or reinforcing this market bias: 1. The swing bias is positive. 2. Oil is trading above the averages. 3. The prior down spike has been reversed. 4. The averages are layered positively. 5. The price action is trading above the large monthly converging triangle. Alternative counter trend bearish factors: 1. The weekly RSI diverging negatively. Scenario 1 As the dominant daily trend is up retracements to support areas could possibly be viewed as buying opportunities. Scenario 2 Alternatively trading this pair could offer short term scalping opportunities back to the averages.
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Daily Technical Analysis from ACFX 09/09/2013 Daily Technical Analysis for EURUSD as at 9th September 2013 DAILY OVERVIEW Trend : Short Ambush Zone : - Target 1 : - Target 2 : - Stop : - Comments EURUSD is this morning trading higher from the open after Fridays up day. EURUSD once again is trading up to the 8 period moving. We are monitoring the price for any signs of resistance at this levels which could ultimately push EURUSD lower. However the weekly time does continue to point up which could indicate that this change of daily trend is nothing more than a strong corrective move. Furthermore with the price action being extended from the averages Mondays bullish hammer candle could be the first signs that the market is attempting to put in a base. In terms of the bigger picture the swing bias has changed to negative. The following factors are confirming or reinforcing this market bias: 1. The swing bias is negative. 2. The price action has breached trend line support. 3. The price action has broken beneath the averages. 4. The averages have crossed negatively. 5. The RSI is showing signs of negative divergence. Alternative counter trend bullish factors: 1. The weekly time frame has a positive swing bias. Scenario 1 As the dominant daily trend is down retracements into resistance could be viewed as selling opportunities Scenario 2 Alternatively as EURUSD is extended from the averages and therefore there is a possibility of a corrective up to sideways move. Daily Technical Analysis for GBPUSD as at 9th September 2013 DAILY OVERVIEW Trend : Long Ambush Zone : - Target 1 : - Target 2 : - Stop : - Comments GBPUSD is this morning trading higher from the open after Fridays up day. Following the bounce off the off the 34 period moving averages GBPUSD continues to trade higher. We are monitoring a potential move to the prior swing high. In terms of the bigger the swing bias is positive. The following factors are confirming or reinforcing this market bias: 1. The swing bias has turned positive. 2. The price action is bouncing off positively layered averages which could offer a buying opportunity. 3. The averages have crossed positively. 4. The RSI is confirming the move. 5. The weekly time frame is in gear with the daily time frame. 6. The price action traded through the 1.5250 resistance level. Alternative counter trend bearish factors: 1. GBPUSD is approaching Fibonacci resistance. Scenario 1 As the dominant daily trend is up retracements into support could be viewed as buying opportunities. Scenario 2 Alternatively a sustained break of the 8 period moving averages could potentially see GBPUSD trade into the direction of the 34 period moving averages. Daily Technical Analysis for USDCHF as at 9th September 2013 DAILY OVERVIEW Trend : Long Ambush Zone : - Target 1 : - Target 2 : - Stop : - Comments USDCHF is this morning trading lower from the open after Fridays down day On Friday USDCHF traded down to the averages where support came into the market. If support does hold we will monitor a potential move to Fibonacci resistance. Alternatively a breach of the 8 period moving averages will focus our attention on a possible move to the 34 period moving averages. In terms of the bigger picture the swing bias has changed to positive. The following factors are confirming or reinforcing this market bias: 1. The swing bias is positive. 2. The RSI is in gear with the move. 3. The averages are positively layered. Alternative counter trend bearish factors: 1. The weekly time frame continues to have a negative bias. Scenario 1 As the dominant daily trend is up corrective pullbacks could possibly offer buying opportunities. Scenario 2 Alternatively a breach of the 8 period moving averages could potential see USDCHF trade down to the 34 period moving averages. Daily Technical Analysis for USDJPY as at 9th September 2013 DAILY OVERVIEW Trend : Long Ambush Zone : - Target 1 : - Target 2 : - Stop : - Comments USDJPY is this morning trading unchanged from the open after Fridays down day. On Friday USDJPY experienced a corrective downwards move to the 8 period moving averages where support was found. This morning USDJPY has opened with an upside gap. Although the market continues to have a positive bias the rejection of both Fibonacci resistance and the 100 level has been noted. In terms of the bigger picture the swing bias has turned positive. The following factors are confirming or reinforcing this market bias: 1. The swing bias positive. 2. The price action has printed a higher low. 3. The price action has breached the upper trend line of a converging triangle. 4. The moving averages have crossed positively. 5. The price action is trading above the moving averages. 6. The RSI is confirming the move. Alternative counter trend bearish factors: 1. The 100 level could offer a barrier to further upside movement. 2. Fibonacci resistance could offer down side pressure. Scenario 1 As the dominant daily trend is up retracements into support could be viewed as buying opportunities Scenario 2 Alternatively Fibonacci resistance could offer selling opportunities. Daily Technical Analysis for Gold as at 9th September 2013 DAILY OVERVIEW Trend : Long Ambush Zone : - Target 1 : - Target 2 : - Stop : - Comments Gold is this morning trading lower from the open after Fridays up day. Gold has bounced off the 34 period moving averages following its corrective retracement. We are monitoring the price action for a potential move to the prior swing high. In terms of the bigger picture the swing bias has reversed to positive. The following factors are confirming or reinforcing this market bias: 1. The swing bias is positive. 2. The price action has printed a higher low. 3. The moving averages are layered positively. 4. The price action is trading above the 1322 support level. 5. The RSI is in gear with the move. Alternative counter trend bearish factors: 1. The weekly time frame continues to point down. Scenario 1 As the dominant daily trend is up corrective sideways to down movements could potentially be viewed as buying opportunities. Scenario 2 Alternatively a break beneath the 34 moving averages could see Gold trade down to the 1300 area. Daily Technical Analysis for Oil (WTI) as at 9th September 2013 DAILY OVERVIEW Trend : Long Ambush Zone : - Target 1 : - Target 2 : - Stop : - Comments Oil is this morning trading unchanged from the open after Fridays up day. Oil on Friday bounced aggressively off the moving average support area. We are monitoring a potential move to the prior swing high. In terms of the bigger picture the swing bias is positive. The following factors are confirming or reinforcing this market bias: 1. The swing bias is positive. 2. Oil is trading above the averages. 3. The prior down spike has been reversed. 4. The averages are layered positively. 5. The price action is forming a possible corrective zigzag consolidation pattern. 6. The price action is trading above the large monthly converging triangle. Alternative counter trend bearish factors: 1. The weekly RSI diverging negatively. Scenario 1 As the dominant daily trend is up retracements to resistance areas could possibly be viewed as buying opportunities. Scenario 2 Alternatively trading this pair could offer short term scalping opportunities back to the averages.
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Daily Market Outlook from ACFX 09/06/2013 Important Financial Indicators of the day GBP - 08:30 (GMT) - Manufacturing Production m/m - Forecast 0.3% - Previous 1.9% CAD - 12:30 (GMT) - Employment Change - Forecast 21.2K - Previous -39.4K CAD - 12:30 (GMT) - Unemployment Rate - Forecast 7.2% - Previous 7.2% USD - 12:30 (GMT) - Non Farm Employment Change - Forecast 178K - Previous 162K USD - 12:30 (GMT) - Unemployment Rate - Forecast 7.4% - Previous 7.4% CAD - 14:00 (GMT) - Ivey PMI - Forecast 52.6 - Previous 48.4 Currencies ◾EUR/USD The dollar was set for a second weekly advance against the euro as 10-year Treasury yields reached 3 percent for the first time since 2011 before data forecast to show U.S. employers added jobs at a faster pace. ◾The dollar was little changed at $1.3131 per euro at 6:50 a.m. in London, having risen 0.7 percent this week. Europe’s 17-nation currency dropped 0.3 percent to 130.96 yen, paring a weekly gain to 0.9 percent. The yen strengthened 0.4 percent to 99.75 per dollar and was down 1.6 percent on the week. ◾AUD/USD Australian bonds fell, pushing the benchmark 10-year yield to its highest in 17 months, before a U.S. Labor Department report that may show jobs growth accelerated last month in the world’s largest economy. ◾Australia’s 10-year bond yield rose as much as eight basis points to 4.151 percent, the most since April 2012, and was as 4.15 at 10:05 a.m. in Sydney. It has climbed 25 basis points since Aug. 30, set for the largest increase in three weeks. The three-year rate touched 2.986 percent, the highest since June 24. A basis point is 0.01 percentage point. ◾GBP/USD he pound was little changed versus the dollar and euro before a report economists said will show a gauge of U.K. manufacturing activity increased at a slower pace in July. ◾The pound traded at 84.13 pence per euro at 7:30 a.m. London time after reaching 84.08 pence yesterday, the strongest level since May 6. It has appreciated 1.4 percent this week against the common currency. Sterling was at $1.5601, having gained 0.6 percent since Aug. 30. ◾USD/CAD The Canadian dollar rose against the majority of its 16 most-traded peers before data tomorrow forecast to show the nation snapped two months of jobs losses in a sign the economy may be emerging from a mid-year slowdown. ◾The loonie, as the Canadian dollar is known for the image of the aquatic bird on the C$1 coin, fell 0.1 percent to C$1.0505 per U.S. dollar at 5 p.m. in Toronto. One loonie buys 95.19 U.S. cents. Commodities ◾Oil West Texas Intermediate oil swung between gains as losses as U.S. crude inventories shrank and President Barack Obama searched for diplomatic backing for a military strike on Syria while at the G-20 summit in Russia. ◾WTI for October delivery was at $108.30 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange, down 7 cents at 2:45 p.m. Singapore time. The contract yesterday climbed 1.1 percent to $108.37, the biggest gain since Aug. 27. The volume of all futures traded was about 54 percent below the 100-day average. Prices are up 0.6 percent this week ◾Brent for October settlement slid 9 cents to $115.17 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. The European benchmark crude was at a premium of $6.82 to WTI futures, from $6.89 yesterday. ◾Gold West Texas Intermediate oil swung between gains as losses as U.S. crude inventories shrank and President Barack Obama searched for diplomatic backing for a military strike on Syria while at the G-20 summit headed for the first back-to-back weekly decline since July before data that may show employers in the U.S. added jobs at a faster pace last month, boosting the case for the Federal Reserve to rein in stimulus. Russia. ◾Gold has lost 18 percent this year amid expectations the Federal Reserve will pare asset purchases as early as this month. The Federal Open Market Committee is scheduled to meet Sept. 17-18. Data today may show that nonfarm payrolls expanded 180,000 in August, compared with an increase of 162,000 in July. Equities ◾Asian stocks dropped, snapping a six-day advance and paring the regional benchmark index’s biggest weekly gain since July, as investors await the monthly American jobs report. ◾The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 0.2 percent to 133.02 as of 2:05 p.m. in Hong Kong, on course to rise 2.2 percent this week for the biggest advance since the week through July 12. U.S. payrolls figures today may add to signs of an improving jobs market ahead of the Federal Reserve’s Sept. 17-18 meeting, when it will gauge whether the world’s biggest economy can withstand a reduction in unprecedented stimulus. ◾European stocks were little changed, with the Stoxx Europe 600 Index heading for a weekly gain, as investors awaited a report on U.S. payrolls to gauge the outlook for Federal Reserve stimulus. U.S. futures and Asian shares were also little changed. ◾The Stoxx 600 gained 0.2 percent to 305.02 at 8:09 a.m. in London. The benchmark gauge has gained 2.6 percent so far this week, snapping two weeks of losses, as the European Central Bank affirmed its accommodative monetary policy and as Chinese manufacturing in August surpassed estimates. Standard & Poor’s 500 Index futures added 0.1 percent, while the MSCI Asia Pacific Index dropped less than 0.1 percent. ◾U.S stocks rose, with benchmark indexes staging the longest rally since July, as investors weighed data on the labor market and American services industry before tomorrow’s monthly jobs report. ◾The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index (SPX) rose 0.1 percent to 1,655.08 at 4 p.m. in New York. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 6.61 points, or less than 0.1 percent, to 14,937.48. About 5.3 billion shares changes hands on U.S. exchanges, 12 percent below the three-month average.
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Daily Technical Analysis from ACFX 09/06/2013 Daily Technical Analysis for EURUSD as at 6th September 2013 DAILY OVERVIEW Trend : Short Ambush Zone : - Target 1 : - Target 2 : - Stop : - Comments EURUSD is this morning trading higher from the open after yesterdays down day. EURUSD yesterday traded up to the 8 period moving where resistance was found. This currency pair was ultimately repelled from this level and in the process was pushed into making a new low. However the weekly time does continue to point up which could indicate that this change of daily trend is nothing more than a strong corrective move. Furthermore with the price action being extended from the averages Mondays bullish hammer candle could be the first signs that the market is attempting to put in a base. In terms of the bigger picture the swing bias has changed to negative. The following factors are confirming or reinforcing this market bias: 1. The swing bias is negative.. 2. The price action has breached trend line support. 3. The price action has broken beneath the averages. 4. The averages have crossed negatively. 5. The RSI is showing signs of negative divergence. Alternative counter trend bullish factors: 1. The weekly time frame has a positive swing bias. Scenario 1 As the dominant daily trend is down retracements into resistance could be viewed as selling opportunities Scenario 2 Alternatively as EURUSD is extended from the averages and therefore there is a possibility of a corrective up to sideways move. Daily Technical Analysis for GBPUSD as at 6th September 2013 DAILY OVERVIEW Trend : Long Ambush Zone : - Target 1 : - Target 2 : - Stop : - Comments GBPUSD is this morning trading higher from the open after yesterdays down day. GBPUSD bounced off the 34 period moving averages. We are monitoring a potential move to the prior swing high. In terms of the bigger the swing bias is positive. The following factors are confirming or reinforcing this market bias: 1. The swing bias has turned positive. 2. The price action is bouncing off positively layered averages which could offer a buying opportunity. 3. The averages have crossed positively. 4. The RSI is confirming the move. 5. The weekly time frame is in gear with the daily time frame. 6. The price action traded through the 1.5250 resistance level. Alternative counter trend bearish factors: 1. GBPUSD is approaching Fibonacci resistance. Scenario 1 As the dominant daily trend is up retracements into support could be viewed as buying opportunities. Scenario 2 Alternatively a sustain break of the 34 period moving averages could potentially see GBPUSD trade into the direction of the prior swing low. Daily Technical Analysis for USDCHF as at 6th September 2013 DAILY OVERVIEW Trend : Long Ambush Zone : - Target 1 : - Target 2 : - Stop : - Comments USDCHF is this morning trading lower from the open after yesterdays up day The strong upward momentum continued yesterday as USDCHF trades up to the Fibonacci resistance. As the price action is getting extended from the averages we are monitoring USDCHF for possible negative rotation. In terms of the bigger picture the swing bias has changed to positive. The following factors are confirming or reinforcing this market bias: 1. The swing bias is positive. 2. The RSI is in gear with the move. 3. The averages are positively layered. Alternative counter trend bearish factors: 1. The weekly time frame continues to have a negative bias. Scenario 1 As the dominant daily trend is up corrective pullbacks could possibly offer buying opportunities. Scenario 2 Alternatively as the price action is becoming extended from the averages there is potential for corrective down to sideways movement. Daily Technical Analysis for USDJPY as at 6th September 2013 DAILY OVERVIEW Trend : Long Ambush Zone : - Target 1 : - Target 2 : - Stop : - Comments USDJPY is this morning trading lower from the open after yesterdays up day. USDJPY continues to act positively following the breach of the prior high the upside break of the converging triangle. This move and the successful breach of the previous swing high has effectively change the trend from down to up. In terms of the bigger picture the swing bias has turned positive. The following factors are confirming or reinforcing this market bias: 1. The swing bias positive. 2. The price action has printed a higher low. 3. The price action has breached the upper trend line of a converging triangle. 4. The moving averages have crossed positively. 5. The price action is trading above the moving averages. 6. The RSI is confirming the move. Alternative counter trend bearish factors: 1. The 100 level could offer a barrier to further upside movement. 2. Fibonacci resistance could offer down side pressure. Scenario 1 As the dominant daily trend is up retracements into support could be viewed as buying opportunities Scenario 2 Alternatively Fibonacci resistance could offer selling opportunities. Daily Technical Analysis for Gold as at 6th September 2013 DAILY OVERVIEW Trend : Long Ambush Zone : - Target 1 : - Target 2 : - Stop : - Comments Gold is this morning trading higher from the open after yesterdays down day. Gold continues to experience a corrective retracement as it trades between the averages. We are monitoring the price action for a potential move to the prior swing high. In terms of the bigger picture the swing bias has reversed to positive. The following factors are confirming or reinforcing this market bias: 1. The swing bias is positive. 2. The price action has printed a higher low. 3. The moving averages are layered positively. 4. The price action is trading above the averages. 5. The price action is trading above the 1322 support level. 6. The RSI is in gear with the move., Alternative counter trend bearish factors: 1. The weekly time frame continues to point down. Scenario 1 As the dominant daily trend is up corrective sideways to down movements could potentially be viewed as buying opportunities. Scenario 2 Alternatively a break beneath the 34 moving averages could see Gold trade down to the 1300 area. Daily Technical Analysis for Oil (WTI) as at 6th September 2013 DAILY OVERVIEW Trend : Long Ambush Zone : - Target 1 : - Target 2 : - Stop : - Comments Oil is this morning trading unchanged from the open after yesterdays up day. Oil continues to trade around the moving averages. We are monitoring a potential move to the prior swing high. In terms of the bigger picture the swing bias is positive. The following factors are confirming or reinforcing this market bias: 1. The swing bias is positive. 2. Oil is trading above the averages. 3. The prior down spike has been reversed. 4. The averages are layered positively. 5. The price action is forming a possible corrective zigzag consolidation pattern. 6. The price action is trading above the large monthly converging triangle. Alternative counter trend bearish factors: 1. The weekly RSI diverging negatively. Scenario 1 As the dominant daily trend is up retracements to resistance areas could possibly be viewed as buying opportunities. Scenario 2 Alternatively trading this pair could offer short term scalping opportunities back to the averages.
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Daily Market Outlook from ACFX 09/05/2013 Important Financial Indicators of the day GBP - 11:00 (GMT) - Asset Purchase Facility - Forecast 375B - Previous 375B GBP - 11:00 (GMT) - Official Bank Rate - Forecast 0.50% - Previous 0.50% EUR - 11:45 (GMT) - Minimum Bid Rate - Forecast 0.50% - Previous 0.50% USD - 12:15 (GMT) - ADP Non Farm Employment Change - Forecast 175K - Previous 200K EUR - 12:30 (GMT) - ECB Press Conference USD - 12:30 (GMT) - Unemployment Claims - Forecast 332K - Previous 331K Currencies ◾EUR/USD The dollar weakened against its higher-yielding counterparts after a report showed China’s services industry expanded last month, adding to signs the global economy is recovering. ◾The U.S. currency dropped 0.3 percent to $1.3207 per euro after climbing yesterday to the highest level since July 22. The greenback gained 0.2 percent to 99.74 yen. Japan’s currency lost 0.5 percent to 131.73 per euro. ◾GBP/USD The pound traded near the strongest level in more than three months against the euro before the Bank of England and European Central Bank set policies today. ◾Sterling fetched 84.46 pence per euro at 2:06 p.m. in Tokyo from 84.52 yesterday, when it reached 84.27, the highest since May 16. The pound has gained 2 percent since Aug. 27. ◾USD/CAD Sterling fetched 84.46 pence per euro at 2:06 p.m. in Tokyo from 84.52 yesterday, when it reached 84.27, the highest since May 16. The The Canadian dollar strengthened for a second day as optimism about faster global economic growth fueled demand for riskier assets and Canada’s central bank kept its main interest rate unchanged. ound has gained 2 percent since Aug. 27. ◾The loonie, as the Canadian dollar is known for the image of the aquatic bird on the C$1 coin, rose 0.3 percent to C$1.0493 per U.S. dollar at 5 p.m. in Toronto. It gained 0.6 percent earlier, the biggest intraday move since Aug. 8. One loonie buys 95.30 U.S. cents. Commodities ◾Oil West Texas Intermediate crude traded near the lowest price in more than a week as the U.S. weighed limited military strikes on Syria, easing concern the conflict will spread and disrupt Middle East oil supplies. ◾WTI for October delivery was at $107.55 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange, up 32 cents, at 3:15 p.m. Sydney time. The contract dropped 1.2 percent to $107.23 yesterday, the biggest decline since Aug. 20 and the lowest settlement since Aug. 26. The volume of all futures traded was about 61 percent below the 100-day average. ◾Brent for October settlement was 25 cents higher at $115.16 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. The European benchmark crude was at a premium of $7.62 to WTI futures, from $7.68 yesterday. ◾Gold advanced after the biggest drop in a month as the Senate Foreign Relations Committee voted to authorize President Barack Obama to conduct a limited U.S. military operation against Syria, boosting haven demand. ◾Bullion for immediate delivery gained as much as 0.3 percent to $1,395.07 an ounce, and was at $1,393.24 at 11:42 a.m. in Singapore. Prices retreated 1.5 percent yesterday, the most since Aug. 6. Gold for December delivery rose 0.2 percent to $1,393 an ounce on the Comex in New York. Equities ◾Asian stocks rose for a sixth day, the longest streak of gains in nine months, after the Federal Reserve and Bank of Japan said they saw moderate recoveries in two of the world’s three biggest economies. ◾The MSCI Asia Pacific Index gained 0.4 percent to 133.59 as of 11:47 a.m. in Hong Kong as about two shares rose for each that fell. The measure is on course for its longest rising streak since December. Japan’s Topix and Standard & Poor’s 500 Index futures were little changed. ◾U.S stocks rose, led by automakers and technology companies, as a Senate panel voted to authorize military action in Syria and the Federal Reserve said the economy maintained a “modest to moderate†pace of growth. ◾The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index rose 0.8 percent to 1,653.08 at 4 p.m. in New York. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 96.91 points, or 0.7 percent, to 14,930.87. About 6.1 billion shares changed hands on U.S. exchanges, in line with the three-month average.
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Daily Technical Analysis from ACFX 09/05/2013 Daily Technical Analysis for EURUSD as at 5th September 2013 DAILY OVERVIEW Trend : Short Ambush Zone : - Target 1 : - Target 2 : - Stop : - Comments EURUSD is this morning trading lower from the open after Yesterdays up day. EURUSD yesterday experienced a minor retracement however this morning the price action has opened negatively and reversed most of yesterday’s gains. We are monitoring the potential for further downward momentum. However the weekly time does continue to point up which could indicate that this change of daily trend is nothing more than a strong corrective move. Furthermore with the price action being extended from the averages Mondays bullish hammer candle could be the first signs that the market is attempting to put in a base. In terms of the bigger picture the swing bias has changed to negative. The following factors are confirming or reinforcing this market bias: 1. The swing bias is negative.. 2. The price action has breached trend line support. 3. The price action has broken beneath the averages. 4. The averages have crossed negatively. 5. The RSI is showing signs of negative divergence. Alternative counter trend bullish factors: 1. The weekly time frame has a positive swing bias. Scenario 1 As the dominant daily trend is down retracements into resistance could be viewed as selling opportunities Scenario 2 Alternatively as EURUSD is extended from the averages and therefore there is a possibility of a corrective up to sideways move. Daily Technical Analysis for GBPUSD as at 5th September 2013 DAILY OVERVIEW Trend : Long Ambush Zone : - Target 1 : - Target 2 : - Stop : - Comments GBPUSD is this morning trading lower from the open after yesterdays up day. GBPUSD bounced off the 34 period moving averages. We are monitoring a potential move to the prior swing high. In terms of the bigger the swing bias is positive. The following factors are confirming or reinforcing this market bias: 1. The swing bias has turned positive. 2. The price action is bouncing off positively layered averages which could offer a buying opportunity. 3. The averages have crossed positively. 4. The RSI is confirming the move. 5. The weekly time frame is in gear with the daily time frame. 6. The price action traded through the 1.5250 resistance level. Alternative counter trend bearish factors: 1. GBPUSD is approaching Fibonacci resistance. Scenario 1 As the dominant daily trend is up retracements into support could be viewed as buying opportunities. Scenario 2 Alternatively a sustain break of the 34 period moving averages could potentially see GBPUSD trade into the direction of the prior swing low. Daily Technical Analysis for USDCHF as at 5th September 2013 DAILY OVERVIEW Trend : Long Ambush Zone : - Target 1 : - Target 2 : - Stop : - Comments USDCHF is this morning trading higher from the open after yesterdays down day This morning’s strong bullish open has resulted in a breach of the previous swing high and in the process changed the trend on a swing bases from down to up. The positive cross of the averages is confirming this bias. In terms of the bigger picture the swing bias has changed to positive. The following factors are confirming or reinforcing this market bias: 1. The swing bias is positive. 2. The RSI is in gear with the move. 3. The averages are positively layered. Alternative counter trend bullish factors: 1. The weekly time frame continues to have a negative bias. Scenario 1 As the dominant daily trend is up corrective pullbacks could possibly offer buying opportunities. Scenario 2 Alternatively as the price action is becoming extended from the averages there is potential for corrective down to sideways movement. Daily Technical Analysis for USDJPY as at 5th September 2013 DAILY OVERVIEW Trend : Long Ambush Zone : - Target 1 : - Target 2 : - Stop : - Comments USDJPY is this morning trading lower from the open after yesterdays up day. USDJPY continues to act positively following the breach of the prior high the upside break of the converging triangle. This move and the successful breach of the previous swing high has effectively change the trend from down to up. In terms of the bigger picture the swing bias has turned positive. The following factors are confirming or reinforcing this market bias: 1. The swing bias positive. 2. The price action has printed a higher low. 3. The price action has breached the upper trend line of a converging triangle. 4. The moving averages have crossed positively. 5. The price action is trading above the moving averages. 6. The RSI is confirming the move. Alternative counter trend bearish factors: 1. The 100 level could offer a barrier to further upside movement. 2. Fibonacci resistance could offer down side pressure. Scenario 1 As the dominant daily trend is up retracements into support could be viewed as buying opportunities Scenario 2 Alternatively Fibonacci resistance could offer selling opportunities. Daily Technical Analysis for Gold as at 5th September 2013 DAILY OVERVIEW Trend : Long Ambush Zone : - Target 1 : - Target 2 : - Stop : - Comments Gold is this morning trading lower from the open after yesterdays down day. Following the printing of the hammer candle Gold broke higher off the averages. We are monitoring the price action for a potential move to the prior swing high. In terms of the bigger picture the swing bias has reversed to positive. The following factors are confirming or reinforcing this market bias: 1. The swing bias is positive. 2. The price action has printed a higher low. 3. The moving averages are layered positively. 4. The price action is trading above the averages. 5. The price action is trading above the 1322 support level. 6. The RSI is in gear with the move. Alternative counter trend bearish factors: 1. The weekly time frame continues to point down. Scenario 1 As the dominant daily trend is up corrective sideways to down movements could potentially be viewed as buying opportunities. Scenario 2 Alternatively as the price action is extended from the averages there is potential for taking counter trend shorts down to the averages. Daily Technical Analysis for Oil (WTI) as at 5th September 2013 DAILY OVERVIEW Trend : Long Ambush Zone : - Target 1 : - Target 2 : - Stop : - Comments Oil is this morning trading unchanged from the open after yesterdays down day. Oil experienced a positive session as it bounced aggressively of the 34 period moving averages. We are monitoring a potential move to the prior swing high. In terms of the bigger picture the swing bias is positive. The following factors are confirming or reinforcing this market bias: 1. The swing bias is positive. 2. Oil is trading above the averages. 3. The prior down spike has been reversed. 4. The averages are layered positively. 5. The price action is forming a possible corrective zigzag consolidation pattern. 6. The price action is trading above the large monthly converging triangle. Alternative counter trend bearish factors: 1. The weekly RSI diverging negatively. Scenario 1 As the dominant daily trend is up retracements to resistance areas could possibly be viewed as buying opportunities. Scenario 2 Alternatively trading this pair could offer short term scalping opportunities back to the averages.
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Daily Market Outlook from ACFX 09/04/2013 Important Financial Indicators of the day GBP - 09:30 (GMT) - Services PMI - Forecast 59.3 - Previous 60.2 CAD - 13:30 (GMT) - Trade Balance - Forecast -0.3B - Previous -0.5B USD - 13:30 (GMT) - Trade Balance - Forecast -38.7B - Previous -34.2B CAD - 15:00 (GMT) - BOC Rate Statement CAD - 15:00 (GMT) - Overnight Rate - Forecast 1.00% - Previous1.00% Currencies ◾EUR/USD The dollar traded 0.2 percent from a six-week high against the euro amid signs the U.S. economic recovery is gaining traction, adding to the case for the Federal Reserve to scale back stimulus this month. ◾The U.S. currency was little changed at $1.3165 per euro as of 1:44 p.m. in Tokyo after touching $1.3139 yesterday, the strongest since July 22. The dollar bought 99.69 yen from 99.57 yesterday, when it reached 99.86, the highest since Aug. 2. ◾GBP/USD The pound rose for a fifth day versus the euro as a report showed a gauge of U.K. construction based on a survey of purchasing managers increased for a fourth month in August, reaching the highest in almost six years. ◾The pound appreciated 0.2 percent to 84.72 pence per euro at 4:10 p.m. London time after reaching 84.46 pence, the strongest level since May 21. Sterling was little changed at $1.5533. ◾USD/CAD Canada’s dollar rose versus most major peers on bets demand for oil will be buoyed by heightened tensions in the Middle East as U.S. President Barack Obama seeks support in Congress for a military strike on Syria ◾The loonie, as the Canadian dollar is nicknamed for the image of a waterfowl on the C$1 coin, gained 0.1 percent to C$1.0535 per U.S. dollar at 5 p.m. in Toronto, after dropping 0.4 percent last week, its third straight weekly decline. One loonie buys 94.92 U.S. cents. Commodities ◾Oil West Texas Intermediate fluctuated as President Barack Obama won support from two opposition lawmakers for a military strike on Syria, bolstering concern Middle East oil supply may be disrupted if the conflict widens. est in almost six years. ◾WTI for October delivery was at $108.31 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange, down 23 cents, at 2:50 p.m. Sydney time. The contract climbed 89 cents from the Aug. 30 close to settle at $108.54 yesterday. Floor trading was closed Sept. 2 for the Labor Day holiday. The volume of all futures traded was 52 percent below the 100-day average. ◾Brent for October settlement was up 13 cents at $115.81 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. The European benchmark crude was at a premium of $7.51 to WTI, from $7.14 yesterday. ◾Gold traded little changed above $1,400 an ounce after rising the most in a week, as investors weighed the prospects for reduced stimulus in the U.S. against the threat of a military attack against Syria. ◾Spot gold traded at $1,412.97 an ounce at 11:49 a.m. in Singapore from $1,412.42 yesterday, when prices climbed 1.5 percent, the most since Aug. 23. Gold capped the first back-to-back monthly gain in a year in August as turmoil in the Middle East fanned haven demand. Equities ◾Asian stocks outside Japan fell, with the regional index snapping a four-day advance, as the threat of a military strike against Syria left oil trading near a two-year high, curbing the outlook for global economic growth. ◾The MSCI Asia Pacific Excluding Japan Index lost 0.2 percent to 441.17 as of 1:01 p.m. in Hong Kong as four shares fell for every three that rose. Futures on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index rose 0.2 percent. ◾European stocks declined as U.S. Speaker of the House John Boehner said he supports the president’s call for action against Syria, offsetting better-than-forecast manufacturing data. ◾The Stoxx Europe 600 Index fell 0.4 percent to 301.78 at the close. Stock markets were rattled earlier, with the gauge losing as much as 0.7 percent, by what Israel said was a joint flight test with the U.S. of its Arrow missile-interception system over the Mediterranean Sea. The measure lost 2.4 percent last week on concern the U.S. and its allies would take military action against Syria for chemical-weapons attacks that the Obama administration said killed more than 1,400 people. ◾U.S stocks rose, following the worst month since May 2012 for the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index, as better-than-forecast economic data overshadowed concern over possible military action against Syria. ◾The S&P 500 climbed 0.4 percent to 1,639.77 at 4 p.m. in New York, paring an earlier advance of as much as 1.1 percent. The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 23.65 points, or 0.2 percent, to 14,833.96. About 6.6 billion shares changed hands, the highest level since Aug. 1. U.S. exchanges were closed yesterday for the Labor Day holiday.
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Daily Technical Analysis from ACFX 09/04/2013 Daily Technical Analysis for EURUSD as at 4th September 2013 DAILY OVERVIEW Trend : Short Ambush Zone : - Target 1 : - Target 2 : - Stop : - Comments EURUSD is this morning trading lower from the open after Yesterdays down day. This morning EURUSD continues to trade lower. The swing bias has turned negative and this has been confirmed by the averages also crossing negatively. However the weekly time does continue to point up which could indicate that this change of daily trend is nothing more than a strong corrective move. Furthermore with the price action being extended from the averages yesterdays bullish hammer candle could be the first signs that the market is attempting to put in a base. In terms of the bigger picture the swing bias has changed to negative. The following factors are confirming or reinforcing this market bias: 1. The swing bias is negative.. 2. The price action has breached trend line support. 3. The price action has broken beneath the averages. 4. The averages have crossed negatively. 5. The RSI is showing signs of negative divergence. Alternative counter trend bullish factors: 1. The weekly time frame has a positive swing bias. Scenario 1 As the dominant daily trend is down retracements into resistance could be viewed as selling opportunities Scenario 2 Alternatively as EURUSD is extended from the averages and therefore there is a possibility of a corrective up to sideways move. Daily Technical Analysis for GBPUSD as at 4th September 2013 DAILY OVERVIEW Trend : Long Ambush Zone : - Target 1 : - Target 2 : - Stop : - Comments GBPUSD is this morning trading higher from the open after yesterdays up day. GBPUSD bounced off the 34 period moving averages and is this morning trading above the 8 period moving averages. In terms of the bigger the swing bias is positive. The following factors are confirming or reinforcing this market bias: 1. The swing bias has turned positive. 2. The price action is bouncing off positively layered averages which could offer a buying opportunity. 3. The averages have crossed positively. 4. The RSI is confirming the move. 5. The weekly time frame is in gear with the daily time frame. 6. The price action traded through the 1.5250 resistance level. Alternative counter trend bearish factors: 1. GBPUSD is approaching Fibonacci resistance. Scenario 1 As the dominant daily trend is up retracements into support could be viewed as buying opportunities. Scenario 2 Alternatively a sustain break of the 34 period moving averages could potentially see GBPUSD trade into the direction of the prior swing low. Daily Technical Analysis for USDCHF as at 4th September 2013 DAILY OVERVIEW Trend : Short Ambush Zone : - Target 1 : - Target 2 : - Stop : - Comments USDCHF is this morning trading higher from the open after yesterdays up day USDCHF continues to trade higher with the averages attempting to cross positively. However on a swing bases the trend is down. A breach of the prior swing low would confirm the negative swing bias and a breach of the prior swing high would effectively change the trend to long. In terms of the bigger picture the swing bias is negative. The following factors are confirming or reinforcing this market bias: 1. The swing bias remains negative. 2. The weekly time frame continues to have a negative bias. 3. The RSI is in gear with the move. 4. The averages are negatively layered. Alternative counter trend bullish factors: 1. The price has corrected but there is potential for an extended move past the 34 period moving averages. 2. Support is holding. Scenario 1 As the dominant daily trend is down corrective pullback could possibly offer shorting opportunities. Scenario 2 Alternatively as there has been a breach of the 34 period moving averages there is potential for a move to prior swing high. Daily Technical Analysis for USDJPY as at 4th September 2013 DAILY OVERVIEW Trend : Long Ambush Zone : - Target 1 : - Target 2 : - Stop : - Comments USDJPY is this morning trading higher from the open after yesterdays up day. USDJPY continues to act positively following the breach of the prior high the upside break of the converging triangle. This move and the successful breach of the previous swing high has effectively change the trend from down to up. In terms of the bigger picture the swing bias has turned positive. The following factors are confirming or reinforcing this market bias: 1. The swing bias positive. 2. The price action has printed a higher low. 3. The price action has breached the upper trend line of a converging triangle. 4. The moving averages have crossed positively. 5. The price action is trading above the moving averages. 6. The RSI is confirming the move. Alternative counter trend bearish factors: 1. The 100 level could offer a barrier to further upside movement. 2. Fibonacci resistance could offer down side pressure. Scenario 1 As the dominant daily trend is up retracements into support could be viewed as buying opportunities Scenario 2 Alternatively Fibonacci resistance could offer selling opportunities. Daily Technical Analysis for Gold as at 4th September 2013 DAILY OVERVIEW Trend : Long Ambush Zone : - Target 1 : - Target 2 : - Stop : - Comments Gold is this morning trading lower from the open after yesterdays up day. Following the printing of the hammer candle Gold broke higher of the averages. We are monitoring the price action for a potential move to the prior swing high. In terms of the bigger picture the swing bias has reversed to positive. The following factors are confirming or reinforcing this market bias: 1. The swing bias is positive. 2. The price action has printed a higher low. 3. The moving averages are layered positively. 4. The price action is trading above the averages. 5. The price action is trading above the 1322 support level. 6. The RSI is in gear with the move. Alternative counter trend bearish factors: 1. The weekly time frame continues to point down. Scenario 1 As the dominant daily trend is up corrective sideways to down movements could potentially be viewed as buying opportunities. Scenario 2 Alternatively as the price action is extended from the averages there is potential for taking counter trend shorts down to the averages. Daily Technical Analysis for Oil (WTI) as at 4th September 2013 DAILY OVERVIEW Trend : Long Ambush Zone : - Target 1 : - Target 2 : - Stop : - Comments Oil is this morning trading lower from the open after yesterdays up day. Yesterday Oil experienced a positive session as it bounced aggressively of the 34 period moving averages. We are monitoring a potential move to the prior swing high. In terms of the bigger picture the swing bias is positive. The following factors are confirming or reinforcing this market bias: 1. The swing bias is positive. 2. Oil is trading above the averages. 3. The prior down spike has been reversed. 4. The averages are layered positively. 5. The price action is forming a possible corrective zigzag consolidation pattern. 6. The price action is trading above the large monthly converging triangle. Alternative counter trend bearish factors: 1. The weekly RSI diverging negatively. Scenario 1 As the dominant daily trend is up retracements to resistance areas could possibly be viewed as buying opportunities. Scenario 2 Alternatively trading this pair could offer short term scalping opportunities back to the averages.
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Daily Market Outlook from ACFX 09/03/2013 Important Financial Indicators of the day GBP - 11:30 (GMT) - Construction PMI - Forecast 58.4 - Previous 57.0 USD - 17:00 (GMT) - ISM Manufacturing PMI - Forecast 54.2 - Previous 55.4 Currencies ◾USD/JPY The yen touched a one-month low as signs of economic improvement across the globe damped demand for refuge assets while data from Japan signaled progress in the central bank’s easing efforts. ◾The yen slid 0.1 percent to 99.45 per dollar as of 6:08 a.m. in London after touching 99.70, the weakest since Aug. 2. It bought 131.16 per euro from 131.04 yesterday, when it dropped 1 percent. The dollar fetched $1.3193 per euro from $1.3192. ◾AUD/USD The yen slid 0.1 percent to 99.45 per dollar as of 6:08 a.m. in London after touching 99.70, the weakest since Aug. 2. It bought 131.16 per euro Foreign ownership of Australian government securities rose last quarter from a three-year low, even as the nation’s currency plunged by the most in almost five years. rom 131.04 yesterday, when it dropped 1 percent. The dollar fetched $1.3193 per euro from $1.3192. ◾The Australian dollar plunged 12 percent in the three months through June, the most since the third quarter of 2008, while the country’s government debt lost 0.1 percent, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch index data. U.S. Treasuries declined 2.2 percent in the period. Commodities ◾Oil Brent crude swung between gains and losses after rising for the first time in three days as U.S. lawmakers urged backing for military action against Syria, fanning concern that possible strikes may disrupt Middle East oil exports. ◾Brent for October settlement was at $114.18 a barrel on the ICE Futures Europe exchange, down 15 cents, at 12:25 p.m. Singapore time. The contract gained 32 cents to $114.33 yesterday. The European benchmark crude was at a premium of $7.59 to New York-traded West Texas Intermediate futures. ◾Gold traded little changed after dropping for three days to a one-week low as investors assessed prospects for reduced stimulus in the U.S. as the world’s largest economy recovers. ◾Spot gold traded at $1,392.78 an ounce at 9:31 a.m. in Singapore after touching $1,373.38 yesterday, the lowest since Aug. 23. Prices fell from a three-month high of $1,433.83 on Aug. 28 on signs that a U.S. strike against Syria will be delayed and as improving economic data fueled speculation that the Federal Reserve will trim its $85 billion in monthly bond purchases. Equities ◾Asian stocks rose for a fourth day, with the regional benchmark gauge climbing the most in a month, as Japanese shares were boosted by the yen weakening against the dollar and amid optimism the global economy is recovering. ◾The MSCI Asia Pacific Index gained 1.4 percent to 132.79 as of 12:46 p.m. in Hong Kong, on course for the highest closing level since Aug. 2, as all 10 industry groups on the gauge advanced. More than three shares rose for each that fell. Futures on the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index rose 1 percent from Aug. 30, with U.S. markets due to reopen after a holiday ◾European stocks dvanced the most in eight weeks as a gauge of Chinese manufacturing activity exceeded economists’ estimates. U.S. index futures also rose. ◾The Stoxx Europe 600 Index added 1.9 percent to 302.94 at the close of trading, its biggest gain since July 4. The equity benchmark fell 2.4 percent last week to its lowest level since July 17 amid concern that the U.S. and its allies will take military action against Syria. Standard & Poor’s 500 Index futures climbed 1 percent today. U.S. markets are closed for the Labor Day holiday.
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Daily Technical Analysis from ACFX 09/03/2013 Daily Technical Analysis for EURUSD as at 3rd September 2013 DAILY OVERVIEW Trend : Short Ambush Zone : - Target 1 : - Target 2 : - Stop : - Comments EURUSD is this morning trading lower from the open after Yesterdays down day. This morning EURUSD continues to trade lower. With the swing bias having turned negative we are monitoring a potential negative cross of the averages which will confirm the new down trend. However the weekly time does continue to point up which could indicate that this change of daily trend is nothing more than a strong corrective move. In terms of the bigger picture the swing bias has changed to negative. The following factors are confirming or reinforcing this market bias: 1. The swing bias is negative.. 2. The price action has breached trend line support. 3. The price action has broken beneath the averages. 4. The RSI is showing signs of negative divergence. Alternative counter trend bullish factors: 1. The weekly time frame has a positive swing bias. 2. The averages have crossed positively. Scenario 1 As the dominant daily trend is down retracements into resistance could be viewed as selling opportunities Scenario 2 Alternatively as EURUSD is extended from the averages and therefore there is a possibility of a corrective up to sideways move. Daily Technical Analysis for GBPUSD as at 3rd September 2013 DAILY OVERVIEW Trend : Long Ambush Zone : - Target 1 : - Target 2 : - Stop : - Comments GBPUSD is this morning trading unchanged from the open after yesterdays up day. GBPUSD bounced off the 34 period moving averages and is this morning trading above the 8 period moving averages. In terms of the bigger the swing bias is positive. The following factors are confirming or reinforcing this market bias: 1. The swing bias has turned positive. 2. The price action is bouncing off positively layered averages which could offer a buying opportunity. 3. The averages have crossed positively. 4. The RSI is confirming the move. 5. The weekly time frame is in gear with the daily time frame. 6. The price action traded through the 1.5250 resistance level. Alternative counter trend bearish factors: 1. GBPUSD is approaching Fibonacci resistance. Scenario 1 As the dominant daily trend is up retracements into support could be viewed as buying opportunities. Scenario 2 Alternatively a sustain break of the 34 period moving averages could potentially see GBPUSD trade into the direction of the prior swing low. Daily Technical Analysis for USDCHF as at 3rd September 2013 DAILY OVERVIEW Trend : Short Ambush Zone : - Target 1 : - Target 2 : - Stop : - Comments USDCHF is this morning trading higher from the open after yesterdays up day Following a strong bounce off support the positivity has continued as USDCHF traded through the 34 period moving averages. It would appear that USDCHF is attempting to build a base prior to breaking higher. However on a swing bases the trend is down and a breach of the 20th August low would reconfirm this trend. In terms of the bigger picture the swing bias is negative. The following factors are confirming or reinforcing this market bias: 1. The swing bias remains negative. 2. The weekly time frame continues to have a negative bias. 3. The RSI is in gear with the move. 4. The averages are negatively layered. Alternative counter trend bullish factors: 1. The price has corrected but there is potential for an extended move past the 34 period moving averages. 2. Support is holding. Scenario 1 As the dominant daily trend is down corrective pullback could possibly offer shorting opportunities. Scenario 2 Alternatively as there has been a breach of the 34 period moving averages there is potential for a move to prior swing high. Daily Technical Analysis for USDJPY as at 3rd September 2013 DAILY OVERVIEW Trend : Long Ambush Zone : - Target 1 : - Target 2 : - Stop : - Comments USDJPY is this morning trading higher from the open after yesterdays up day. Yesterday USDJPY breached the prior high following the upside break of the converging triangle. This move and the successful breach of the previous swing high has effectively change the trend from down to up. In terms of the bigger picture the swing bias has turned positive. The following factors are confirming or reinforcing this market bias: 1. The swing bias positive. 2. The price action has printed a higher low. 3. The price action has breached the upper trend line of a converging triangle. 4. The moving averages have crossed positively. 5. The price action is trading above the moving averages. 6. The RSI is confirming the move. Alternative counter trend bearish factors: 1. The 100 level could offer a barrier to further upside movement. 2. Fibonacci resistance could offer down side pressure. Scenario 1 As the dominant daily trend is up retracements into support could be viewed as buying opportunities Scenario 2 Alternatively Fibonacci resistance could offer selling opportunities. Daily Technical Analysis for Gold as at 3rd September 2013 DAILY OVERVIEW Trend : Long Ambush Zone : - Target 1 : - Target 2 : - Stop : - Comments Gold is this morning trading unchanged from the open after yesterday’s unchanged day. Yesterday Gold attempted to trade lower only for support to come into the market and in the process led to a printing of a bullish hammer candle. We are monitoring the price action for further signs of positive rotation. In terms of the bigger picture the swing bias has reversed to positive. The following factors are confirming or reinforcing this market bias: 1. The swing bias is positive. 2. The price action has printed a higher low. 3. The moving averages are layered positively. 4. The price action is trading above the averages. 5. The price action is trading above the 1322 support level. 6. The RSI is in gear with the move. Alternative counter trend bearish factors: 1. The weekly time frame continues to point down. Scenario 1 As the dominant daily trend is up corrective sideways to down movements could potentially be viewed as buying opportunities. Scenario 2 Alternatively as the price action is extended from the averages there is potential for taking counter trend shorts down to the averages. Daily Technical Analysis for Oil (WTI) as at 3rd September 2013 DAILY OVERVIEW Trend : Long Ambush Zone : - Target 1 : - Target 2 : - Stop : - Comments Oil is this morning trading unchanged from the open after yesterday’s unchanged day. Yesterday Oil attempted to trade lower only to reverse and print a bullish hammer candle. This morning Oil is hovering around the 34 period moving averages where support could be found. We are monitoring the potential for a further upswing. In terms of the bigger picture the swing bias is positive. The following factors are confirming or reinforcing this market bias: 1. The swing bias is positive. 2. Oil is trading above the averages. 3. The prior down spike has been reversed. 4. The averages are layered positively. 5. The price action is forming a possible corrective zigzag consolidation pattern. 6. The price action is trading above the large monthly converging triangle. Alternative counter trend bearish factors: 1. The weekly RSI diverging negatively. Scenario 1 As the dominant daily trend is up retracements to resistance areas could possibly be viewed as buying opportunities. Scenario 2 Alternatively as the price action is extended from the averages Oil may experience a down to sideways corrective pullback.
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Daily Market Outlook from ACFX 09/02/2013 Important Financial Indicators of the day GBP - 11:30 (GMT) - Manufacturing PMI - Forecast 55.2 - Previous 54.6 Currencies ◾USD/JPY The yen fell against all of its major peers after speculators added to bearish bets on the currency and on signs Japan’s prime minister is making progress on policies that have helped weaken the currency. ◾The yen lost 0.5 percent to 98.64 per dollar as of 1:11 p.m. in Tokyo from the end of last week, when it capped a 0.6 percent weekly gain. Japan’s currency weakened 0.4 percent to 130.30 per euro from Aug. 30, when it reached 129.31, the strongest since Aug. 20. ◾AUD/USD The Australian and New Zealand dollars rallied from losses last week after Chinese government data showed manufacturing reached a 16-month high, bolstering the outlook for exports from both South Pacific nations. ◾Australia’s dollar rose 0.8 percent to 89.68 U.S. cents as of 2:40 p.m. in Sydney after touching 88.93 on Aug. 30, matching the least since Aug. 5. It gained 1.2 percent to 88.44 yen ◾USD/CAD The Canadian currency fell for a third week as the possibility of a U.S. military strike against Syria damped appetite for riskier assets and burnished the haven appeal of the U.S. dollar. ◾The loonie, as Canada’s dollar is nicknamed for the image of the aquatic bird on the C$1 coin, lost 0.4 percent this week and dropped 2.5 percent this month. Commodities ◾Oil West Texas Intermediate crude fell for a third day after President Barack Obama said he’ll seek authorization from Congress before ordering military action against Syria, easing concern that an imminent strike would disrupt Middle East oil exports. ◾WTI for October delivery slid as much as $3.44 to $104.21 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange and was at $106.11 at 2 p.m. Sydney time. The volume of all futures traded was almost double the 100-day average. The contract rose 1.2 percent last week and 2.5 percent in August, a third monthly gain. ◾Brent for October settlement decreased as much as $1.81, or 1.6 percent, to $112.20 a barrel on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. The European benchmark crude was at a premium of $6.89 to WTI futures, from $6.36 on Aug. 30. ◾Gold fell as prospects for an attack against Syria receded, and on bets the U.S. Federal Reserve will start to pare stimulus as the economy improves. Silver halted a three-day drop as manufacturing in China sustained an expansion. ◾Spot gold lost as much as 1.6 percent to $1,373.38 an ounce, falling for a third day to the lowest level since Aug. 23. It traded at $1,389.79 at 9:54 a.m. in Singapore. Prices have retreated since reaching a three-month high of $1,433.83 on Aug. 28 as improving data supported the case for the Fed to start reducing the $85 billion in monthly asset purchases this month. Equities ◾Asian stocks gained for a third day after a gauge of China’s manufacturing rose to a 16-month high, boosting investor confidence in the global economic recovery. ◾The MSCI Asia Pacific Index advanced 0.8 percent to 131.25 as of 11:44 a.m. in Hong Kong. Almost two shares climbed for each that declined. The measure fell 1.6 percent in August, the third drop I n four months. The gauge rose 0.6 percent this year through Aug. 30, lagging a 15 percent surge in the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index as investors sold assets across the region on expectations the Federal Reserve will taper U.S. economic stimulus this month.