While it's not possible to predict the market with absolute certainty, skilled traders use various tools and analysis techniques to assess probabilities and make informed decisions. Technical analysis, fundamental analysis, and sentiment analysis help traders gauge potential market directions based on historical data, economic indicators, and market sentiment. I think it's possible to achieve consistent 60-65% win rate for average trader.
Well we had many times when crypto markets erased 50% or more from their market cap and then recovered and it's natural to be bearish after seeing a deep fall. Retails are always lagging in their expectations