TradingForecom2012

EUR/USD was trading at 1.2939, up 0.09% at time of writing. The pair was likely to find support at 1.2932, today’s low, and resistance at 19.3300, Monday’s high. EUR/GBPwas trading at 0.8066, up 0.09% at time of writing. The pair was likely to find support at 0.8023, Thursday’s low, and resistance at 0.8099, Tuesday’s high. USD/JPY was trading at 78.40, up 0.08% at time of writing. The pair was likely to find support at 77.95, Thursday’s low, and resistance at 78.71, Monday’s high. EUR/JPY was trading at 101.54, up 0.27% at time of writing. The pair was likely to find support at 100.15, Thursday’s low, and resistance at 102.45, Monday’s high.

Published on: 12/11/2012 The U.S. dollar traded sharply lower against its rivals Thursday, after official data indicated U.S. initial jobless claims fell to their lowest level since February 2008 last week. The U.S. Department of Labour said the number of individuals filing for initial jobless benefits last week fell by 30,000 to a seasonally adjusted 339,000, compared to expectations for an increase of 1,000 to 370,000. The previous week’s figure was revised up to 369,000 from a previously reported 367,000. A separate report showed that the U.S. trade deficit widened to USD44.2 billion in August, broadly in line with market expectations, as imports outpaced exports. Earlier Thursday, the minutes of the Bank of Japan’s September meeting indicated that some policymakers were leaning towards more aggressive easing measures, boosting expectations that the central bank may ease policy again later this month. The euro remained supported amid hopes that a ratings downgrade on Spain by Standard & Poor’s would force Madrid to formally request a bailout, which investors hope will ease the debt crisis in the euro zone. In Canada, official data showed that the trade deficit narrowed to CAD1.3 billion in August, compared to expectations for a deficit of CAD2.0 billion. The Australian dollar remained supported after official data showed that the country’s economy added 14,500 jobs in September, easily beating expectations for an increase of 3,800.

GBP/USD hit 1.6034 during U.S. morning trade, the daily high; the pair subsequently consolidated at 1.6015, adding 0.07%. Cable was likely to find support at 1.5960, the low of September 10 and resistance at 1.6083, the high of September 11. EUR/USD hit 1.2913 during U.S. morning trade, the session high; the pair subsequently consolidated at 1.2897, inching up 0.09%. The pair was likely to find near-term support at 1.2802, the low of October 1 and resistance at 1.2990, Tuesday’s high. USD/CHF pulled back from 0.9431, the session high, to hit 0.9390 during European afternoon trade, slipping 0.13%. The pair was likely to find support at 0.9321, Tuesday’s low and resistance at 0.9431, the session high and a seven-day high.

Yuan steady, Chinese firms sell dollars after post-holiday influx The yuan held steady on Wednesday as corporates sold dollars, which had flooded in since China's onshore market resumed trading on Monday after a week-long holiday last week , traders said. The post-holiday influx of dollars had put off a long-anticipated correction in the yuan, they said, and had helped the Chinese currency defy a rally in the dollar in global markets. Spot yuan traded at 6.2873 versus the dollar at midday, after moving in a narrow range of 6.2866 and 6.2899, little changed compared with Tuesday's close of 6.2878.

Published on: 10/10/2012 The dollar rose against most major currencies on early Wednesday as fears grew the global economy continues to cool after the International Monetary Fund trimmed growth forecasts for the world economy. The euro and other higher-yielding currencies fell after investors sold and jumped to the side-lines ahead of the release of French and Italian industrial production data. Uncertainty elsewhere in Europe also kept investors in the safety of the greenback. Protestors clashed with police in Athens to mark German Chancellor Angela Merkel's visit to Greece, as the German leader urged Greeks to stick with austerity measures, adding the country will be better off in the long run. Uncertainty over whether Spain will seek a bailout made the liquid dollar an attractive safe haven even more. The dollar also saw gains against the euro and elsewhere as investors sold stocks and braced for U.S. third-quarter earnings, which hit the wire beginning this week. In the U.S. later Wednesday, the Federal Reserve is to publish its Beige Book, which outlines current economic conditions.

Published : 09/10/2012 The dollar fell against most major currencies on early Tuesday after investors sold the unit for profits. The greenback rose earlier amid a risk-off session sparked by World Bank and International Monetary Fund cuts to growth forecasts, though profit-taking sent the currency softening somewhat. The World Bank earlier said it had cut its 2012 growth forecast for developing Asia-Pacific economies to 7.2% from a May forecast of 7.6%. The World Bank also said China's economy will growth 7.7% this year, down from a May forecast of 8.2%. The International Monetary Fund, meanwhile, cut its 2012 global growth forecast to 3.3% from a July estimate of 3.5%. E.U. ministers are holding talks this week over how to firewall and extinguish the debt crisis, while German Chancellor Angela Merkel is making her first trip to Greece since 2007. Merkel's visit takes place as representatives from Greece's Troika of international creditors — the ECB, the European Commission and the International Monetary Fund — mull whether the country is meeting terms required to receive its next shot of financial aid. Later Tuesday, eurozone finance ministers will hold talks to discuss ways to firewall and extinguish the debt crisis.

Published on : 08/10/2012 The dollar rose against most major currencies on early Monday after investors spent the weekend digesting a stronger-than-expected U.S. September jobs report, concluding the numbers did not indicate significant recovery was taking shape in the U.S. economy. The U.S. unemployment rate fell to 7.8% percent in September from 8.1% in August, the Bureau of Labour Statistics reported Friday. Employers added a net 114,000 jobs in September, while households reported that total employment rose by 873,000 in September following three months of little change. Meanwhile, the creation of just 114,000 new nonfarm payrolls reflected no major improvement from previous monthly jobs reports, investors concluded, which prompted many to take up long dollar positions early in Asian trading. Elsewhere, demand for safe-haven currencies like the dollar rose ahead of the release of output data out of Germany, Europe's largest economy. Germany will release month-on-month industrial output figures later in the day and until the numbers hit the wire, investors opted for safe-haven currencies such as the yen and the dollar. A group of eurozone finance ministers are due to meet on Monday in Brussels, and investors sold the euro to await any policy announcements that may come from the talks.

Published on: 05/10/2012 The Bank of Japan held off from more easing after adding to stimulus last month, preserving its policy firepower despite increased political pressure and signs of an economic contraction. The BOJ kept its asset-purchase fund, the main policy tool amid near-zero rates, at 55 trillion yen ($700 billion), the bank said in a statement in Tokyo today. Attention now turns to the next meeting on October 30 as Morgan Stanley and Credit Suisse AG forecast two straight quarters of economic contraction through year-end. Economy Minister Seiji Maehara attended today’s central bank meeting, the first minister to do so for over nine years, adding to pressure on BOJ Governor Masaaki Shirakawa. Japan’s central bank kept its benchmark interest rate between zero and 0.1 percent and monthly bond purchases at 1.8 trillion yen.

Published on: 04/10/2012 Euro Firm ahead of ECB Meeting Main focus today will be on ECB meeting. The ECB would very likely leave its policy rate unchanged at the October meeting. In fact, after the announcement of the OMT in September and release of the meeting statement, we expect policymakers would leave interest rates unchanged for the rest of the year unless economic data suggests that more downside risks would be seen on economic growth and inflation. BoE will also announce monetary policy decision today. Interest rates will remain at 0.5%, and the asset purchase program at GBP 375b. The quantitative easing program is expected to be expanded once again after the latest GBP 50b program completes in November. FOMC minutes would also be featured today. This minutes is particularly important as Fed announced the effectively unlimited QE3 program during the meeting. Markets perceived that as an important move towards adopting an explicit target for unemployment rate.

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Published On: Wed, 03 Oct 2012 The dollar rose against most major currencies on Wednesday after investors sought out the safe and liquid greenback to await official news over a Spanish bailout. Concerns retail sales in Europe due out later may disappoint sparked demand for the dollar as well. A Reuters report that Spain may request a bailout in the coming days bolstered the euro early, even though Germany was reportedly urging Madrid to hold off. A bailout could open the door for the European Central Bank to buy sovereign Spanish debt carrying maturities of up to three years, which would lower borrowing costs in the crisis-weary country. Yet until Spain requests a bailout or rejects plans to do so, uncertainty will keep the currency moving up and down in choppy trading, as was the case on Wednesday. European policymakers are due to hold a summit later this month, and anticipation of announcements concerning Spain and other crisis-related issues moved the euro up and down against safe-haven currencies such as the dollar. Later Wednesday, the euro zone will release retail sales figures, and concerns the data may disappoint sent the euro and other higher-yielding dipping against the greenback as did a Reserve Bank of Australia decision to cut benchmark interest rates to by 25 basis points to 3.25%. Meanwhile in the U.S., payroll processor ADP will release its September report on private-sector hiring on Thursday while on Friday, the U.S. Department of Labor will release the country's official September jobs report. Uncertainty over the health of the U.S. labor market sent investors to the greenback as well. However, the Federal Reserve is currently running a third round of quantitative easing, a monetary stimulus tool that sees the U.S. central bank buying USD40 billion in mortgage-backed securities a month to spur recovery. Such policy tools weaken the greenback, which dampened the dollar's gains on Wednesday. Later Wednesday, the U.S. will release industry data on non-farm employment change, followed by a report by the Institute for Supply Management on non-manufacturing activity, as well as government data on crude oil stockpiles.

Tue, 02 Oct 2012 The dollar fell against most major currencies on Tuesday after solid U.S. manufacturing data published earlier, sparking a risk-on trading session. In the U.S. earlier, the Institute of Supply Management's U.S. purchasing managers' index beat expectations in September, rising to 51.5 from 49.6 in August. Analysts had expected the ISM manufacturing PMI to rise to 49.7 last month. The news boosted spirits in global markets, enticing investors out of the safety of the U.S. dollar and into higher-yielding currencies and stocks. Meanwhile, the euro and other currencies saw demand after Spain's finance minister reportedly said the country was studying financial aid game plans with the European Central Bank. Spain announced recent bank stress tests revealed financial institutions need just shy of EUR60 billion to return to health, and European Union Commissioner Olli Rehn said earlier that he doesn't expect bank recapitalization efforts to affect the country's structural deficit. Rehn added the country's 2012 deficit target is within reach. Further fueling the risk-on session, the euro zone unemployment rate remained unchanged at 11.4% in August, in line with expectations.

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