hi the following from a guy called "60minuteman"
http://needynotshy.com/vbforum/archive/index.php/t-15.html
and for me it concludes sam
1.http://i1222.photobucket.com/albums/dd481/ringobells/1.png
2.http://i1222.photobucket.com/albums/dd481/ringobells/2.png
RULES:
These aren't really rules, but if finding the strong s&d areas is vital, we need some way of determining if it is strong or weak...
Thankfully that is easy too...
1. The areas have to be : rally-base-drop or drop-base-rally
youre looking for places where price turned..... its only minor s&d if price was moving up, went sideways, then continued up.... rally-base-rally is no good!
By all means note these areas, but theyre not what you are looking for... look at area 2 and 1 on the chart again.... rally-base-drop
2. how long did price stay at this area.... a short time is good! this shows there is a big imbalance between s&d
3. how did price leave this area... gap is excellent... but rare.. so we are looking for a strong move away.... area 1 and 2 on the chart again...
4. how far did it go.... this is your profitability
area 2 dropped about 350 pips... we look for at least 3/1 profit, so a sl at area 1 of 100 pips would of been ok...
5. you also want to have a decent amount of time between prices visit to an area, because obviously if price is constantly hanging around the area, then its not meeting rules 2, 3 and 4.
ENTRIES: for entries we need to draw in our s&d zones, the conventional teaching is to draw a single line, but thats just not realistic, price isnt going to turn right on the exact pip!
so we draw a zone... look at chart 2
ok here i have drawn in the top and bottom lines of my supply zone..
you are just trying to capture the range of prices where price turned...
its subjective, but practice.... i am
OK, SO WHEN DO WE PULL THE TRIGGER?
this is the bit im always trying to find on threads i read, so ive put it in big letters for you...:)
there are 2 approaches... conservative and gun ho! ... im a gun ho trader, unfortunately for me.... but its upto you!
conservative is to wait for price to come back to the area and show some signal that it has turned.... bollinger bands, fibs, whatever you like, if it makes you feel better, do it..
gun ho! you just wait for price to enter the area, or even set a limit order on your line....
STOP LOSS
for your sl you use the top line (or bottom when going long) of your s&d zone
TARGET
upto you, i tend to take profit as price moves towards minor s/r zones,
Trade enhancers:
Selecting supply and demand zones:
1.Pick rally, base, drop or drop, base, rally - this looks like a sharp peak on your charts, or a deep sharp V-shape
2. price dropped fast from the peak.
3. price dropped a long way.
4. price was at the peak for a short time only.
Entries:
1. this is the first return to the supply or demand zone.
2. price rallied strongly into the supply zone, or even better, gapped into the supply zone
3. price has been away from the supply zone for a long time
Other things to look for:
1. make sure that you have at least 1/3 risk/reward, ideally 1/4... count the pips of the drop from the supply zone last time and divide that by your stop loss, if the result is above 3 this is a good trade.
2. if entering from supply on the 1hr, check that the 4hr and daily are not in demand....
The hardest thing is entering long when you see price plummeting strongly short... it feels wrong at first, but you need to remember this,
The forex market is just a transfer of funds from 1 set of traders to another, this is how oney is made in forex, so we are looking to take the money from the novice trader... we can find these traders easily on our charts. Novice traders make 2 mistakes over and over again.... "they buy after a sustained period of buying and into areas of supply..." and vice versa... so when you see those strong rallies or drops into our areas of supply and demand, we know it will be easy to take this money.... institutional traders know this and trade this way too