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  1. #31
    Bronze Member Array Elizabeth FBS's Avatar
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    Emerging markets: what’s the problem?

    There were a lot of concerns about emerging markets during the recent days. Why there are problems in so many countries simultaneously? There are the following general reasons behind the depreciation: a contraction in Chinese manufacturing, concerns about the impact of the Fed’s stimulus tapering, a variety of more local problems, ranging from troubled economic institutions to political unrest.

    Argentina

    Argentinean peso survived the biggest depreciation 12 years. In lost 15% of its value last week when the central bank briefly stopped supporting the national currency. Earlier the central bank spent huge sums to slow down peso’s fall. These efforts reduced Argentina’s foreign-currency reserves to about $29 billion from around $43 billion a year ago. Inflation is believed to account for 30%. There’s a big gap between the official exchange rate (around 8 peso per USD) and the black market rate (more than 12 peso per USD). This gap reinforces expectations that peso will devalue even more.

    Turkey

    Turkish lira has lost about 16% against dollar since Dec. 17, when the arrest of the sons of 3 cabinet ministers exposed a corruption investigation which threatens Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan and his government’s standing. The nation’s central bank has persistently refused to raise interest rates to defend the currency. Erdogan was opposing the hike, because he wanted low rates to boost economic growth as elections approach. As a result, the central bank had to reduce its foreign currency reserves to give lira some support. Still, it’s clear that it doesn’t work and the regulator has an emergency meeting today. A rate hike’s widely expected.

    Currencies likeSouth African rand, Russian ruble, Unraine hryvnia, Chilean peso continue their fall. Pimco thinks that once the risk aversion abates, people will start to differentiate again and currencies would recover. Others say the declines are sowing the seeds of problems for developing nations because weaker currencies would push up overseas debt payments for countries, damping the outlook for their economies.

  2. #32
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    Key currency options

    Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (14:00 GMT).

    Here are the key options expiring today:

    EUR/USD: $1.3590, $1.3670, $1.3680, $1.3700;

    USD/JPY: 102.00, 102.40, 102.90, 103.00, 103.80, 104.00;

    AUD/USD: $0.8700, $0.8875;

    USD/CAD: 1.0940;

    EUR/GBP: 0.8265;

    EUR/JPY: 141.20;

    AUD/JPY: 91.30.

  3. #33
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    China: the imminent debt crisis?

    The risk of a credit crunch is hanging over China. The pace of the nation’s debt increase is extremely high. China’s local governments have public debt of $3 trillion. This week one of Chinese trusts has managed to avoid default, presumably, thanks to a bailout. Still, this raises many questions about the nation’s financial future. The nation’s extraordinary economic growth used to be a wonder and an example for others. However, it seems that this growth is now being built on the growing reliance on debt that will be difficult to repay. The existence of a huge shadow banking sector which, according to some estimates, equals 40% of GDP, makes the problem ever more serious.

  4. #34
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    Morgan Stanley: short on USD/JPY

    USD/JPY extends the upside, breaking above the sell orders around 102.80. Will the buyers manage to push through the 103.00 mark or the bearish correction will deepen further?

    Morgan Stanley expects the pair to move even lower. They opened a sell-limit USD/JPY order at 103.00, with a stop at 104.00 and a target at 100.60. "We expect JPY to regain support as broader risk appetite is tested. Signs of Chinese growth slowing are likely to impact Asia regional risk appetite in particular, which will be JPY-supportive, in our view", analysts clarify.


  5. #35
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    FX BAZOOKA: technicals (Jan. 28)

    EUR/USD

    EUR/USD remained between $1.3700 and $1.3650, 50% and 38.2% Fibo of the decline from $1.3890 to $1.3507. MAs remain horizontal, so do the lines Tenkan and Kijun. MACD is in the positive area, but below the signal line and declining. The desire of the bulls to move higher is confronted by the expectations of another $10B reduction in the Fed’s QE. The pair needs some additional drivers.

    Resistance: $1.3700, $1.3750, $1.3800

    Support: $1.3670, $1.3640, $1.3600


    Chart. H4 EUR/USD

    Upcoming events

    EUR - All day - ECOFIN Meetings

    USD - 13:30 GMT - Core Durable Goods Orders, Durable Goods Orders

    USD - 14:00 GMT - S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI

    USD - 15:00 GMT - CB Consumer Confidence

  6. #36
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    GBP/USD

    GBP/USD extends growth for a second day in a row, breaking above $1.6600. The pair is moving towards the recent high of $1.6670. Cable remains supported by the January rising trend line ($1.6515 as of writing). General market sentiment is bullish. MACD histogram rose above the signal line. RSI is close to the overbought zone. Watch the UK Q4 GDP today – the forecast is a little bit to the downside.

    Support: $1.6600/6590, $1.6565, $1.6470

    Resistance: $1.6670, $1.6740


    Chart. H4 GBP/USD

    Upcoming events:

    GBP – 9:30 GMT – Preliminary Q4 GDP, Index of Services

  7. #37
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    USD/JPY

    USD/JPY keeps consolidating below 102.80. The pair needs to rise above 102.85 to extend the recovery. The negative MACD crossed the signal line to the upside (bullish signal). On the daily chart the pair is supported by the bullish Cloud.

    Support: 102.40, 102.00, 101.75, 101.60

    Resistance: 102.85, 103.00, 103.60


    Chart. H4 USD/JPY

  8. #38
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    USD/CHF

    The pair still looks bearish as long as it holds below $0.8985. We expect the greenback to extend the downside. The negative MACD crossed the signal line to the upside (bullish signal). Ichimoku Cloud remains bearish. 55-period MA crossed the 100-period MA to the downside.

    Support: $0.8900, $0.8800

    Resistance: $0.8985,$0.9030, $0.9090, $0.9130


    Chart. H4 USD/CHF

  9. #39
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    AUD/USD

    AUD/USD recovered to the 55-period MA just below $0.8800. Aussie was supported by higher NAB business confidence. The pair’s trying to rise above the horizontal Kijun-sen. MAs are sloping down. All in all, the pair was quite oversold after hitting a multiyear low last week and it may correct a bit more within the general downtrend. The Ichimoku Cloud represents a hurdle at $0.8825. The upper Bollinger band lies here as well.

    Resistance: $0.8800, $0.8825, $0.8865, $0.8890

    Support: $0.8758, $0.8740, $0.8700, $0.8663


    Chart. H4 AUD/USD

    Upcoming events

    USD - 13:30 GMT - Core Durable Goods Orders, Durable Goods Orders

    USD - 14:00 GMT - S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI

    USD - 15:00 GMT - CB Consumer Confidence

    AUD - 23:30 GMT - MI Leading Index

  10. #40
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    USD/CAD

    USD/CAD is consolidating within its medium-term upward trend. Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen are horizontal and act as support. USD/CAD is trading around the middle Bollinger band. The pair has made a lower high at 1.1118 and the bulls have lost momentum. They might need a day to gather strength.

    Resistance: 1.1118, 1.1175, 1.1230

    Support: 1.1050, 1.0100, 1.0950


    Chart. H4 USD/CAD

    Upcoming events

    USD - 13:30 GMT - Core Durable Goods Orders, Durable Goods Orders

    USD - 14:00 GMT - S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI

    USD - 15:00 GMT - CB Consumer Confidence

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