Elliott Wave Forecast!

EURUSD Remains Trapped In Range, But Triangle Is Pointing Higher

EURUSD Remains Trapped In Range, But Triangle Is Pointing Higher

Canadian dollar was one of the weakest yesterday after BoC leaved rates unchanged at 1% due to weakness in the economy and lowered GDP expectations for 2013 from 2.3% to 2.0%. IMF also lowered global growth for 2013 but markets did not move much after the announcement. Most of the FX pairs and major commodity markets are trading sideways while stocks keep pushing higher. S&P500 slowed down yesterday 4 points ahead of 1500 psychological level.

EURUSD tested 1.3250/60 support few sessions back from where we could see push higher today after just released better than expected German PMI numbers 48.8 vs. 47.1 expectation, but still in a contraction zone.

From an Elliott Wave perspective EURUSD still could be forming a triangle in wave four, but it’s hard to call the end of it. We need some impulsive reactions out of the path before direction of the pair can be confirmed.

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Euro-Crosses should Extend Even Higher In Risk-On Environment-Elliott Wave

USD has been trading higher against its rivals during the Asian trading hours. AUD, GBP and CAD are still one of the weakest while JPY is trying to find some support for the near-term. Larger picture of the markets remains unchanged but still very messy.

Below we have an overlay chart between some major FX currencies compared to S&P Futures and Crude Oil. We can see a strong negative correlation between FX pairs where only the EUR is moving higher in-line with risk-on assets, such oil and S&P. Honestly, we do not like divergences too much, especially not between aussie and S&P which in fact could be signaling for a coming pull-back on stocks.

Overlay-Daily

Anyhow, traders need to trade what they see and not what they think, so at the moment looking for longs on EUR-crosses should be the best choice.

Below we are looking at EURCAD which is trading higher in wave (iii) that may slow down around 1.3630. Ideally we will see a fourth wave pull-back from there and back to 1.3500 which could be a long opportunity for short-term traders to catch wave (v) rally.

EURCAD 1h

GBPUSD : Price Could Retrace To 1.5800-1.5900 Within Larger Downtrend

Jan 29 2013

Final stages of wave 3)

Pound is falling sharply for the past two weeks from 1.6180 Jan 11 swing high. Notice that decline from that high can be easily counted in five waves. That’s called an impulsive structure which represents huge red wave 3) which is part of much bigger five wave decline started back on Jan 2nd. Therefore we expect much deeper levels on cable, but not just yet. In fact, we think that before market breaks lower again we will see a corrective bounce in wave 4), ideally back to 1.5800-1.5900 range before new sell-off begins. Pair is also approaching some strong Fibo support for current third wave; its 1.618 x wave 1) measured from wave 2) high which very often reacts as a turning point at the end of a third wave. In our case that’s comes in at 1.5650. Bottom line: watch for a corrective bounce in 100-200 pips before new leg lower.

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UPDATE II GBPUSD: Pull-back In Progress

Pound is already recovering about we warned you yesterday when we highlighted a five wave fall in wave 3). Notice that current prices are already testing upper trend-line of an impulse channel. Break of this line usually confirms end of a wave 3). In our case it means that market is in a temporary recovery mode, ideally in wave 4 which will retrace back above 1.5800 possibly even to 1.5900 level in sessions ahead.

Larger trend however is still down, but we need to see a completed three wave rise in 4) before we may look for weaker GBP again.

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AUDUSD Could Make A Corrective Bounce Back to 1.0465 Before Turns Bearish Again

AUDUSD reversed nicely lower yesterday and already made a new swing low, which means that pair has now five wave down from 1.0600 high, called an impulsive wave. In Elliott wave theory impulses show direction of a current trend. As such, we are ready for more aussie weakness but could see a corrective retracement back to 1.0465 before downtrend resumes. There is a Fibo zone around 1.0370 and December low just beneath it that could cause a bounce.

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EURUSD: New Pull-back Could Be A New Long Opportunity

EURUSD is trading nicely higher since we called end of a wave ii) pull-back at 1.3413. Notice that market moved higher in five waves from that swing low, which represents impulsive wave iii) of a larger five wave rally. As such, we favour more upside on EURUSD, even towards 1.3700 but before that be aware of a corrective wave iv) retracement back to 1.3550. Larger trend however remains up as long as 1.3480 is not breached, therefore trader should stick with longs.

If you are wondering why 1.3480 level is important; its because wave four must not make an overlap with wave one, otherwise Elliott Wave rule of impulse would be violated and new, different wave count should then be considered.

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EURUSD Gains Slowed Down At 1.3700, But Only Temporary

EURUSD has extended its gains on Friday but then stopped at 138.2% Fibonacci extension level of wave i) measured from wave ii) low. In fact, pair found resistance after five waves up from 1.3414 so actually corrective retracement should not be a surprise as we expect a pull-back of a red wave iv). With that said, keep in mind that pull-back will be only temporary at may find a base around 1.3550/80 zone.

Only a break beneath 1.3480 would invalidate the wave count and suggests that EURUSD is ready for a sizeable decline.

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EURUSD Update II: Bearish Reversal- Respect the Price Action (Elliott Wave)

24 hours back we were still observing bullish counts on EURUSD, but sharp fall invalidate it, which means that something is changing. Notice that pair reversed from its highs clearly in impulsive fashion through the channel support line of the latest bullish run, connected from 1.3262. Pair closed well bellow that trend-line which is important evidence for a temporary change in trend. As such, we need to respect this price action and immediately re-adjust the wave counts. Current structure suggests that EURUSD will make a minimum three wave decline from 1.3710, because this is the minimum structure of a corrective price action. Ideally we will see a simple zig-zag, labeled as an A-B-C move. Currently, price is still falling within wave A so we will see more sideways and bearish price action beneath 1.3400 and possibly to 1.3315 triangle pivot level after a wave B pull-back which will probably unfold ahead of the ECB rates decision on Thursday.

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USD Index Is Bullish For the Near-term Which Will Keep the EURUSD Bellow 1.3710

USD Index has recovered very sharply from below 79.00 level. Recovery was impulsive so we need to respect this type of a price action, that’s why we turned bullish on the USD for a few days. Always when market will make just a corrective pull-back you need to remember that structure still needs to be made in three waves. If we look on our chart then we can clearly see that rise from the low is actually only in one completed leg; that’s wave (a), so be aware of more upside in this week. Ideally market is forming an (a)-(b)-© retracement, called a zig-zag towards 80.15-80.50 region. At that zone you will also notice a trend-line connected from November 16 which could react as a resistance if tested of-course.

For the very near-term we could see deeper levels in wave (b) with possible test of 79.40 region before wave © breaks higher. With higher near-term prediction for the USD be aware of more weakness on EURUSD.

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Intra-day Review For USDCHF and EURUSD (Elliott Wave)

Markets did not move much during the Asian trading hours, despite lower stock prices that followed bearish price action seen yesterday on European and US shares.

The EURUSD was mostly flat around 1.3500 level but pair has now turned bullish ahead of the ECB. Looks like the reaction is technically based that came in from weaker USDCHF.

Notice that USDCHF made three waves up to 0.9148 but we still need to see break of a corrective channel support line and 0.9055 as well to confirm weakness towards 0.9000. Anyhow sooner or later pair will test this psychological level.

USDCHF 1h

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At the same time we are tracking bullish intra-day pattern on EURUSD, where we could see test of 1.3600 resistance in incomplete wave B, before pair turns bearish for wave C.

EURUSD 1h

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Oil: Buyers Could Wait On Deeper and Better Levels Within Bearish Correction

Oil fell down to $95 this weeky before turned bullish again. However, we think that latest bullish rversal is only temporary, as we are tracking an incomplete corrective decline in wave 4) that should be structured by three legs. We labeled a leading diagonal in wave A followed by a current wave B bounce towards 97.30/50 from where price could turn bearish for wave C.

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If you are familiar with the Elliott Wave Theory then you will know that fourth waves can be very tricky, because there are many different patterns available, like flat, triangle, zig-zag, or maybe even combination between them. However, the most common structure on the markets is a zig-zag. A zig-zag is a three wave pattern, labeled as A-B-C that occurs against the primary trend. As such, we will focus on this structure for now, which means more downside could be seen in the next couple of days, possibly even back to $93-$94 zone; 38.2% retracement and base channel supports as shown on a daily chart below.

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EURUSD, More bullish this week!

EURUSD Weekly Chart

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4 Hour Elliott Wave Outlook EUR/USD

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USDJPY Breaks Higher Again; 95.00 Now In View

Expecting at least one more push up as current pull-back appears to be corrective black wave iv.

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S&P Futures are in a pull-back mode after five wave rally from 1494. http://charts.stocktwits.net/production/original_12006373.gif?1360661202

EURUSD: Patiently Waiting For a Bullish Reversal

Daily close above the trend-line that would confirm the bullish reversal.

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Oil Corrective Wave IV (Elliott Wave)

Price will accelerate lower in impulsive manner back to 94.90 toward Wave 4

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German DAX Suggests More EURUSD Weakness After The Pull-back

German DAX is in down-trend in this week same as EURUSD from Feb 13 high. Expecting on DAX; 3-wave retracement in wave (ii) ideally back to 7650/70.

DAX 30min

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EURUSD

Three wave retracement in wave B back to 1.3400 should be interesting EURUSD 1h

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GBPUSD Now Below 2009 Trend-line; Sharp Fall To Come?!

Break of wave D) 1.5267 low that will confirm the bearish view for wave © fall towards 1.3000.

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Gold (XAUUSD) New Leg Down – Elliott Wave Analysis

Gold: market could hit 1560 in the next two or three weeks while 1684 is not breached.

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EURUSD: Pull-back Within Corrective Decline(Elliott Wave Analysis)

Complex corrective decline from 1.3710 is incomplete and that market will make one more push down, towards 1.3250 in this week to complete wave C of a second zig-zag

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GBPUSD : Strong Weakness Could Accelerate After 1.5267 Break(Elliott Wave Analysis)

Any pull-backs should prove corrective while price is trading below 1.5440.

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On the weekly chart: price is well below 2009 support line Larger elliott wave count suggests that pair is at the start of big wave (C ) down.

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AUDUSD: Larger Trend Remains Bearish After Stevens Speech

Bearish Elliott wave patterns. The first price action is showing five wave fall from 1.0366 followed by a three wave rally in wave ii) which could be counted as an expanded flat.

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If today market will remain strong and closed somewhere around or above 1.0330 level then AUDUSD will be focused on the second wave count. This one suggests that market could rally in five waves from 1.0220 and towards 1.0400 before larger downtrend resumes.

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