Comments and forex-analytics from FBS

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Ichimoku. Weekly forecast. GBP/USD

Weekly GBP/USD

Last week the trade was volatile – the bulls and the bears were fighting for domination at the market, so there was a small candle with long upper and lower shadows formed on the weekly chart. The bears turned out to be a bit stronger, so pound didn’t manage to overcome resistance provided by the Standard line.

Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen have approached each other preparing to make a “dead cross” (1). Never the less, this signal won’t de strong as the figure will be formed above the bullish Ichimoku Cloud.

The prices will get support from the lower border of the uptrend channel and still ascending Kumo (3). In addition, the already mentioned Standard line is moving up that means that the longer term uptrend tends to continue.

Daily GBP/USD

On the daily chart the situation is still more pessimistic. On the upside the prices face resistance from the Turning line (1), the Standard line (2) and the descending Ichimoku Cloud that has widened during the recent weeks that means the bears are leading at the market.

Tenkan-sen (1) and Kijun-sen (2) still hold in place the “dead cross” formed below the Ichimoku Cloud – the bearish signal.

At the same time, the longer term trend (Kijun) remains neutral, while Tenkan and Senkou Span A which characterize short-term price moves are deviating upward. Taking into account the outlook on the weekly chart we don’t disregard the possibility of the pair’s attempt to rise to the resistance line connecting May and June maximums.

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Ichimoku. Weekly forecast. USD/JPY

Weekly USD/JPY

On the weekly chat Tenkan-sen has managed to recoil a bit from the longer term Kijun-sen that remains horizontal since the beginning of April (1) – the bulls have managed to prevent the “dead cross”.

In addition, there was an “inverted hammer” candle formed last week – the bullish signal. Moreover, the descending Ichimoku Cloud is narrowing – Senkou Span B goes down (2), while Senkou Span A is flat.

The bulls will likely manage to move higher this week.

Daily USD/JPY

On the daily chart tankan0sen (1) and Kijun-sen (2), as it was expected, formed the “golden cross”. Despite the rate’s decline on Friday, the Standard line (2) acted as support helping the pair go up at the beginning of this week.

The Ichimoku Cloud has narrowed almost to the limit – the lines Senkou Span A and B have come close to each other.

As a result, the bulls have now the chance to win the leadership. To achieve this they have to overcome 2 obstacles – the Turning line (1) and Senkou Span A.

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Ichimoku. Weekly forecast. USD/CHF

Weekly USD/CHF

On the weekly chart the pair USD/CHF kept consolidating between 0.8275 and 0.8550.

The Turning line (1) and the Standard line (2) are still providing resistance for the prices. All lines of the Indicator are horizontal (1, 2, 3 and 4).

Daily USD/CHF

On the daily chart the lines Tenkan-sen and Kijun-sen are preparing to form the “golden cross” (1). The Standard line and the lines limiting the Ichimoku Cloud (2) are directed sideways, while the short-term Turning line is deviating up.

This week the bulls are likely to move up to the levels in the 0.8440/0.8500.

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Commerzbank: bearish view on EUR/USD

The single currency went down from last week’s maximums versus the greenback in the $1.4575 getting below the uptrend support line at $1.4156.

Technical analysts at Commerzbank believe that the pair EUR/USD is now poised down to 200-week MA $1.4024, the recent minimum at $1.3968 and the 200-day MA at $1.3907.

According to the bank, on the upside the pair will be limited by resistance at $1.4400 and $1.4538/80.

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Nomura, Citi: the situation in Italy shows market is still concerned

The slump of Italian bonds shows that the concerns about the euro zone’s debt problems don’t subside and that European leaders didn’t manage to prevent the spreading of the crisis within the region.

The yield on Italy’s 10-year bond rose to 5.47%. The spread between it and the yield on German bunds reached the record maximum as did the spread between the yields of Spanish and German 10-year securities.

Analysts at Westpac note that rising fears about Italy was somewhat unexpected as the economists and the markets were worried primarily about Spain and Portugal.

Economists at Citi recommend selling the single currency versus US dollar, Swiss franc and Japanese yen in case risk sentiment keeps getting worse. Analysts at Rabobank don’t think that euro will manage to find support in the near term given the results of European banks’ stress tests due at the end of the week.

Strategists at Nomura believe that the situation in Italy may deteriorate. The specialists warned about the potential political tensions in Italy. In their view, it’s necessary to get short on EUR/USD targeting $1.3750.

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The leading experts about the outlook for US dollar this year

The most accurate currency forecasters have different opinions on the future of US dollar which has lost 13% during the past year.

There are dollar-optimists who project the greenback to stop declining as the demand for it is likely to increase due to the euro zone’s debt concerns. In addition, the greenback may be supported by the fact that QE3 in the US seems to be unlikely.

Strategists at Schneider Foreign Exchange expect US currency recover to $1.40 by the end of 2011. In their view, the risk of a disorderly default in Europe is currently much higher than in the United States. Wells Fargo economists say that dollar may appreciate to $1.39 by December 31, while Credit Agricole sees dollar to end the year at $1.30.

Analysts at HSBC remind that dollar is still the reserve currency of the world and will be for some time to come, so it won’t continue depreciating. According their forecast, the pair EUR/USD will finish the year at $1.44.

The main dollar-negative factors are concerns about the weakness of US economy and US debt. Analysts at Bank of Nova Scotia underline that there’s no credible fiscal plan in the United States.

Strategists at Societe Generale believe that dollar will fall to $1.50 by the end of the third quarter and to $1.52 per euro by year-end. The specialists point out that US favors a weaker currency for the sake of economic growth encouragement. In their view, as long as unemployment remains high the Federal Reserve will keep its monetary policy extremely loose. JPMorgan thinks American currency will weaken to $1.48 by the year-end.

All in all, despite some negative opinions the overall sentiment about the greenback has significantly improves.

Analysts at Wells Fargo note that the safest strategy is to stay long on USD/JPY. In their view, by the end of the fourth quarter there will be a shift in interest-rate futures positive for US dollar.

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BNY Mellon gives outlook for USD/CAD

Currency strategists at Bank of New York Mellon claim that Canadian dollar may get under pressure in the near term versus its US counterpart, while its longer-term prospects are quite bullish.

Last week loonie got support from stronger than expected Canadian employment data, but then dropped after poor US employment figures as investors’ risk aversion strengthened. The specialists claim that Canada’s currency will be affected by US economic weakness. In their view, the pair USD/CAD may reach parity during the next 3-4 months.

In the longer term, however, the bank expects loonie to gain against the greenback. In their view, Canada’s dollar will benefit from rising oil prices as the nation has got some of the largest reserves in the world. As a result, BNY Mellon expects loonie to run in 2012 to 0.90 per dollar.

Analysts at RBC Capital Markets also see upward potential in loonie. According to them, Canadian currency will reach 0.94. The bank, however, has doubts about the near-term outlook. The specialists think that the Bank of Canada will raise the interest rates, though they aren’t as sure as earlier. In their view, it’s necessary to watch the central bank’s monetary policy report that is published on July 20.

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Barclays: dollar will rise to parity with Swiss frank

Analysts at Barclays believe that the greenback will manage to rise to the parity versus Swiss franc in 3 months as the attractiveness of US currency is increasing with the deterioration of the situation in the euro area.

The bank points out that if Europe’s prospects improve, demand for franc as a safe haven decreases. If the state of things in the monetary union, on the contrary, worsens, financial markets will get extremely concerned. In such case dollar will likely be able to strengthen, despite even the weak payrolls data.

As a result, the specialists think that it’s a good chance now to buy USD/CHF at 0.8350 stopping at 0.7900. The last time the pair was trading above the parity was on December 2, 2010. US dollar declined by 10.5% against its Swiss counterpart since the beginning of this year.

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Commerzbank: EUR/USD will fall to $1.3685

The single currency breached the uptrend support line at $1.4161, May minimum at $1.3968, the 200-day MA at $1.3908 and 50% Fibonacci retracement support at $1.3900.

Technical analysts at Commerzbank believe that the pair EUR/USD will slump to the 2010-2011 uptrend support line at $1.3685.

According to the bank, on the upside resistance is found at $1.3900, $1.4076 and $1.4161.

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Westpac: buy kiwi versus euro

New Zealand’s Q1 GBP figures are released on Wednesday, July 13, at 22:45 GMT.

The economy that suffered in February from the devastating earthquake is rapidly recovering.

Analysts at Westpac expect the nation to show accelerating economic growth gaining 0.3-0.5% in the first 2 months of the year after adding 0.2% in the final quarter of 2010.

The specialists believe that New Zealand’s dollar will get support from the data publication. In their view, it’s necessary to open longs on kiwi against the single currency at 1.7250 stopping at 1.7450 and targeting 1.6900.

Economists at Nomura Securities claim that the People’s Bank of China may be buying NZD. According to the bank, big central banks may get more interested in kiwi.

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The Fed is likely to keep the rates low until June 2012

According to the study conducted by the Federal Bank of Cleveland, the 3-percentage-point gap between yields for 3-month and 10-year Treasuries means that American economy may add 1.1% in a year through June 2012 – that is less than half of the Fed’s current forecast.

Taking into account pore June labor market figures, it’s becoming more and more likely that US central bank will keep interest rates extremely low in the current 0-0.25% range. The nation’s borrowing costs remain at these levels since December 2008 and may do so for the longest period since World War II.

In February federal fund futures showed 51% chance of increase. This percentage lowered in April to 39% and is now only at 10%.

The yield on the benchmark 10-year notes declined from 3.77% in February to 3.03% on July 8. Strategists at Barclays note that the 10-year yields staying in the 3% area reflect expectations that US lawmakers will reach an agreement on raising the debt ceiling, though obliging the government to conduct spending cuts that will certainly affect US economic growth in the short term.

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BNY Mellon: situation in Europe has gone too far

Analysts at BNY Mellon believe that the European currency will keep weakening against a range of currencies during the summer even though Germany's finance minister Wolfgang Schauble claimed that there is still time for the euro zone to reach a deal on Greece ahead of the next tranche of money due at the end of September.

In their view, the crisis has gone too far for the markets’ concerns to ease down. In addition, there are other indebted euro zone nations at stake now.

According to the bank, the pair EUR/USD is poised down to cross at $1.3710 the uptrend support line from June 2010 of $1.1876.

Economists at Rabobank warn that the longer it takes for European politicians to find a solution to the region's sovereign-debt crisis, the greater will be the risk of the region’s contagion with the debt crisis. In their view, euro will stay under pressure in the near term.

Strategists at RBC Capital Markets believe that the single currency will keep going down as long as the yield spread between Italian and German bond keeps widening and renewing the record maximums. The yield on 10-year Italian bonds reached today 6.02%.

Edited July 12, 2011 by FBS.com_official

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HSBC: euro’s decline could be much stronger

Analysts at HSBC note that as the negotiations of US government and the lawmakers on the debt ceiling increase gave reached a deadlock the greenback doesn’t surge versus euro undermined by the debt crisis as much as it could have.

The specialists claim that euro’s fair rate is found at $1.25.

The pair EUR/USD fell today breaching the 200-day MA at $1.3908 and hitting the 4-month minimum at $1.3837.

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Daiwa, RBS: pound under pressure of negative factors

The prospects of the Bank of England’s rate hike faded today as the annual inflation rate declined from 4.5% in May to 4.2% in June. According to the Office for National Statistics, it may have happened as the producers reduced prices of electronic goods trying to attract customers. CPI inflation has been above the 2% target for the past 18 months. Core inflation that excludes the impact of volatile food and energy prices went down last month from 3.3% to 2.8%.

Analysts at Daiwa note that such CPI dynamics was quite surprising. In their view, the drop, particularly reflected in the core measure, indicates the underlying economic weakness. The specialists now doubt that the BoE will raise the borrowing costs this year and even in 2012.

Pound was also pressures by the fact that Britain's trade deficit increased from 7.6 billion pounds to the maximal level since December of 8.5 billion.

Moreover, British currency suffered from external factors, particularly from the escalation of concerns about Italian debt that worsened investors’ risk aversion.

Analysts at RBS claim that pound will be affected by the euro-negative comments (bearish for GBP/USD), though noting that, on the other hand, as investors will be selling euro, they may regard UK as an alternative (bearish for EUR/GBP).

The bank economists expect GBP/USD to fall to $1.55. Sterling hit 5-month minimum versus the greenback and 3-month minimum versus Japanese yen.

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MIG Bank: GBP/USD может упасть до $1.5345

Currency strategists at MIG Bank note that British pound has breached the pattern within which it was consolidating during the past half of the year.

The pair GBP/USD pulled back after forming a lower maximum at $1.6442 and went down below the 200-day MA at $1.6045. The specialists think that sterling will fall to $1.5345.

Today pound hit 5 ½ -month minimum at $1.5780 after the release of lower-than-expected UK CPI figures. Resistance levels for the pair are situated at $1.5935 and $1.6015, while support is found at $1.5775, $1.5750 and $1.5660.

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Westpac: Aussie declined due to the risk aversion

Australian dollars hit today 2-week minimums versus US dollar and Japanese yen on the concerns about the global economic recovery and on the expectations that the European debt crisis will spread more, while the region’s authorities are unable to act decisively to prevent it.

Analysts at Westpac and RBC note that risk aversion has significantly strengthened. In their view, the pair AUD/USD is poised for more declines.

According to the survey of more than 400 companies that took place from June 24 to June 30 conducted by National Australia Bank, confidence index dropped from 6 in May to 0 in June. Specialists at NAB that weaker confidence and slower consumer spending will increase the pressure on the Reserve bank of Australia to keep the rates unchanged at 4.75%.

The pair AUD/USD dropped from $1.0600 to the lowest level since June 29 at $1.0524. The pair AUD/JPY fell from 85.53 to the minimum since June 28 at 84.78.

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HSBC, BoA-Merrill Lynch: Chinese data was rather strong

China's second-quarter GDP was in line with forecasts rising by 9.5% after gaining 9.7% in the first quarter. June industrial production increased by 15.1% after 13.3% rise in May versus 13.2% expected.

Analysts at HSBC claim that Chinese GDP and industrial output figures released today are relatively strong. The specialists note that as inflation rate remains high, monetary tightening conducted by China’s monetary authorities seems justified. In their view, the country will be very cautious about raising rates, so this year 1-2 bank reserve requirement hikes are more likely.

Economists at Bank of America-Merrill Lynch believe that Chinese economic growth pace will slow down to 9.0% in the fourth quarter. According to the bank, the nation’s economy’s heading for a soft landing. The strategists think that China’s GDP will add 9.3% in 2011.

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HSBC, Western Union: kiwi’s rate depends on Europe

New Zealand’s dollar rose versus its US counterpart from the recent minimum at 0.8110 hit yesterday to the levels in the $0.8220 area.

Currency strategists at HSBC claim that taking into account kiwi’s 2011 maximums, the short-term prospects for the pair NZD/USD seem to be negative. The specialists note that the demand for New Zealand’s currency will be stemmed by the market’s concerns about the situation in Europe.

Analysts at Western Union believe that the pair has found support after its decline earlier this week. Never the less, the specialists also think that further dynamics of the cross will depend on how the things go in the euro area. The specialists say that kiwi managed to get higher today on the good Chinese data and is now losing its upward momentum. In their view, support for NZD/USD is at $0.8190, while resistance is situated at $ 0.8240.

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Commerzbank: EUR/USD decline will soon resume

Yesterday the single currency hit the minimum at $1.3837 versus the greenback and then managed to return back to the levels in the $1.4000 zone.

Technical analysts at Commerzbank, however, expect euro’s recovery to be limited. In their view, EUR/USD is going to resume decline to the uptrend support line from 2010 to 2011 at $1.3685.

According to the bank, the pair tested the levels below the 200-day MA at $1.3909 and the 50% retracement support at $1.3900, though hasn’t yet closed down there.

Resistance levels are situated at the 200-week MA at $1.4024, June 16 minimum at $1.4073 and previous support line at $1.4166.

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Commerzbank: yen hit 4-month minimum versus US dollar

At the beginning of the day Japanese yen reached 4-month maximum at 78.45 versus the greenback, the highest level since March 17. Then the Asian currency pulled back down as the market thought that the nation’s monetary authorities may intervene selling the national currency as high yen has a negative impact on the nation’s exporters.

Yen’s surge may be explained by the high demand for it as a refuge due to the increased risk aversion caused by the euro zone’s debt crisis.

Technical analysts at Commerzbank expect the pair USD/JPY to consolidate in the near term. The specialists note that close to today’s minimum there is a 78.6% Fibonacci retracement target at 78.23 below which US currency will revisit its March record minimum of 76.25. Resistance for US dollar will lie at 80.26 and 80.49.

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JPMorgan Chase: division of opinions within the Fed

The minutes of FOMC June 21-22 meeting released yesterday showed that there’s the disagreement within the Federal Reserve on the necessity of further monetary stimulus.

It happens that some members of the Federal Open Market Committee believe that the central bank might have to consider the possibility of launching additional quantitative easing measures, especially if economic growth remains weak and insufficient to reduce the unemployment rate in the medium term.

A number of other FOMC members, on the contrary, think that as inflation risks increase it may mean that the economic conditions are likely to improve so that the Fed will be able to normalize its policy even earlier than projected now.

Analysts at JPMorgan Chase note that one camp is worried about what happens if growth slows more than expected, while the other – about what happens if the rise in inflation isn’t transitory. So, the policymakers think that they can’t ease monetary policy because inflation is rising nor tighten it as the unemployment rate is too high.

As a result, the Federal Reserve is likely to wait watching the economic developments and keeping the rates at the record minimum. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg News, that the rates in the United States will remain between 0 and 0.25% until the second quarter of 2012.

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Morgan Stanley: pessimistic view on EUR/USD

The single currency went up today after hitting yesterday minimum at $1.3837 reaching $1.4100 on the talk that the ECB and China are buying the bonds of indebted peripheral euro zone’s nations.

Yesterday Moody’s Investors Service lowered Ireland’s debt rating from Baa3 to Ba1. As a result, Ireland became the third euro zone nation with credit rating below investment grade with Greece and Portugal already in this group.

The Italian Treasury is scheduled to sell as much as 5 billion euro ($6.99 billion) of bonds tomorrow.

Analysts at JPMorgan Chase are pessimistic on the situation in Europe. The specialists advise to sell EUR/USD on the rebound. The main theme on the market is now the fear of debt crisis contagion.

Strategists at Morgan Stanley think that the single currency still seems to be vulnerable. In their view, euro will slide to $1.36 by the end of 2011. The economists note that there are still big risk events ahead that may affect the European currency such as the bank stress tests.

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Commerzbank: comments on USD/CAD

The greenback jumped off the breached downtrend resistance line from August 2010 maximums.

Technical analysts at Commerzbank claim that if the pair USD/CAD closes above the week’s minimum at 0.9565, it will get chance to retest the 200-day MA at 0.9875.

The specialists say that if US dollar drops below 0.9565, the pair will be poised down to 0.9527/0.9449 support area representing the minimums of the beginning of April and the middle of May.

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Credit Agricole, BofTMUFJ, Investec: negative forecasts for euro

Strategists at Credit Agricole claim that the single currency has managed to rebound a bit as the initial panic caused by the surge of Italian yields faded. However, the fact that Italy got in the centre of market’s attention, which was previously focused mainly on Greece, Ireland, Portugal and Spain, seriously undermines euro. In the short term the pair EUR/USD may advance more. Then, however, it will retest 4-month minimum at $1.3837 and will fall to $1.3400 by the end of September.

Specialists at Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ believe that Italy may once again make euro slump especially if the nation’s sovereign bond yields keep rising increasing the risk that Italian government will have to apply for external financial help. At the same time, the danger will remain even if the yields temper. The bank is getting more and more convinced that EUR/USD reversed down its uptrend from June 2010 lows. It’s more likely now that the ECB will pause monetary tightening this year.

Analysts at Investec expect the European currency will be gradually weakening during the second half of 2011 to end the year at $1.35. The economists think that in a year EUR/USD may fall to $1.25. According to them, if the situation in the euro area keeps worsening, euro may sink even faster.

Commerzbank: negative middle-term outlook on GBP/USD

British pound went up from Tuesday's minimum at $1.5775 almost reaching $1.6200 today before easing down to $1.6125.

Technical analysts at Commerzbank note that there’s a bunch of resistances in the $1.6211/62 area containing 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the advance from December to April, June 22 maximum and the channel resistance line.

The specialists claim that the outlook for the pair GBP/USD will remain bearish in the middle term as long as it trades below $1.6262. In their view, sterling will drop to $1.5487 (50% retracement of the uptrend from 2010 to 2011) and $1.5347 (December minimum).

Sumitomo expects US dollar to weaken

Analysts at Sumitomo Trust & Banking Co. expect the greenback to weaken. In their view, US currency will be affected by the continuous debates about raising US government’s debt limit and reducing budget deficits ahead of the August 2 deadline.

The specialists claim that during the past few years the major central banks, especially Asian, tended to diversify their currency reserves decreasing the share of dollar assets. According to the bank, US dollar is gradually losing its status of the world’s main reserve currency. The debt-related factors add now to this pressure. One more reason for USD to weaken is the possibility of additional monetary stimulus in the United Stated confirmed yesterday by the Fed’s Chairman Ben Bernanke.

As a result, Sumitomo economists advise traders to avoid American currency. The analysts claim that it may be necessary to cut their forecast for USD/JPY by the beginning of 2012 from 88 to 85 yen.

The IMF data shows that the greenback’s share of global currency reserves declined in the first quarter to the minimal level since 1999 of 60.7%. Moody’s Investors Service put US top debt rating on the negative watch for the first time since 1995.

NAB: Aussie’s prospects in case of QE3 in the US

Yesterday the Federal Reserve’s Chairman Ben Bernanke claimed that the central bank will conduct more monetary stimulus in case of US economic growth slowdown.

Analysts at National Australia Bank claim that even if the Fed actually does more quantitative easing, Australian dollar won’t experience as big surge versus its US counterpart as the one seen at the beginning of this year.

The specialists note that in the last 2 rounds of QE the pair AUD/USD gained on average 7.0% in a month after the talk on the subject had begun and 11% in the six weeks afterwards. Aussie will be prevented from one more advance of that kind by the technical factors and the smaller size of any potential easing. Australian currency may rise from the current level to the levels in the $1.1100 area but it won’t manage to stay there for long. NAB strategists underlined that Australian dollar is already trading more than 20% above its fair value against the greenback.

Today Aussie eased down from highs in the $1.0790 area to the levels around $1.0740. Strategists at RBC Capital Markets note that the pair’s advance stemmed ahead of Italian debt auction. Resistance for the pair is at $1.0800. Economists at Barclays Capital have a more bullish point of view as they think that if AUD/USD gets above $1.0805, it will be able to climb to $1.0890 and then to this year’s maximum in the $1.1015 zone.

On-line analytics from FBS always is available on: http://www.fbs.com/analytics/news_markets

Edited July 14, 2011 by FBS.com_official

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UniCredit about SNB intervention

Swiss franc keeps strengthening versus the single currency as investors regard it as a safe haven during the times of euro zone’s dent crisis and looming US debt. Analysts at Commerzbank claim that demand for franc will remain high as long as European and American debt problems remain unsolved. The pair EUR/CHF hit today the record minimum at 1.1492.

According to the Swiss National Bank’s Vice-Chairman Thomas Jordan, the central bank is concerned by such appreciation of the national currency and will be able to take the necessary steps in case deflationary risks reappear. SNB Chairman Philipp Hildebrand, however, noted that the central bank has no reason to take action at the moment as price stability was not threatened. Both of them declined to comment whether the SNB actually plans to intervene.

Earlier, during the period since March 2009 to June 2010 the SNB was conducting currency interventions before it posted the biggest annual $21-billion loss ever last year.

Analysts at UniCredit claim that even if the SNB tried to weaken the franc through renewed currency purchases it won’t achieve much as a lot of investors are using Switzerland as the only safe haven from the European crisis. In their view, the SNB can’t do anything because market forces are too powerful.

Edited July 14, 2011 by FBS.com_official