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US data disappoints

Why can’t US data be unambiguous? Today’s figures disappointed the market after positive data released yesterday.Lower inflation and tumbling manufacturing activity is just what the Fed has been worried about. The fig

ures increase the odds of QE3. Does anyone here want certainty at last?

US consumer prices were unchanged in July (vs. +0.2% expected). Core CPI, which excludes the volatile categories of food and energy, rose by 0.1% (vs. 0.2%) expected. Empire State manufacturing index fell to -5.9 in August from 7.4 in July, showing the biggest miss in 14 months.

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August 16: forex news

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US dollar strengthened versus its major counterpart after better-than-expected industrial production data (+0.6% m/m in July). The market has started to take out a little bit of pricing for QE3 in the near term.

High-yielding currencies were also affected by negative foreign direct investment figures from China showing a decrease by 3.6% y/y. AUD/USD trades below $1.0500 mark after falling to $1.0453 yesterday. NZD/USD remains close to the key $0.8060 levels. New Zealand business manufacturing index slid to 49.4, indicating industry contraction. USD/CAD reached a new three-month low around 0.9880.

EUR/USD slid yesterday below $1.2300. Today euro revisited this area, but then dived to the levels around $1.2280. In Europe the most important publication is one of the CPI at 09:00 GMT. Spanish debt auction was canceled. GBP/USD is consolidating this week above $1.5660. Watch for UK retail sales data at 8:30 GMT.

USD/JPY managed to keep pushing higher: the pair rose above the 200-day MA as US bond yields climbed to more than 6-week maximums.

US housing data (building permits, housing starts) are released today at 12:30 GMT. Stronger than expected figures will further decrease the odds of QE3, especially after more solid industrial production reading came on Tuesday. As usual on Thursdays, watch for US unemployment claims, also at 12:30 GMT.

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QE3: analysts' reasoning

The expectations that the Federal Reserve will launch QE3 as early as in September weakened after amid better-than-expected July retail sales and industrial production figures.

Standard Chartered: “We are seeing increasing signs of stabilization in the US. The U.S. improvement is in contrast to the persistent weakness elsewhere. So that's dollar positive because (interest) rate spreads move in favor of the dollar.”

At the same time, there are more data releases ahead. And in case of disappointments the economic pessimism and the talk of more easing from the Fed may return very quickly.

Mizuho: “It's too early to celebrate with both hands in the air. Corporate sentiment provides the best gauge of current conditions. You have to think about what might happen if the Philly Fed index turns out to be weak. That could change the trend again.”

Empire State manufacturing index released on Wednesday slid to -5.9. Watch for Philly Fed manufacturing index at 14:00 GMT.

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Key options expiring today

Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (2 p.m. GMT).

Here are the key options expiring today:

EUR/USD: $1.2250, $1.2300, $1.2320, $1.2335, $1.2500 (large);

USD/JPY: 78.85, 78.90, 79.25, 79.50;

GBP/USD: $1.5550, $1.5730;

AUD/USD: $1.0300, $1.0445, $1.0480, $1.0510;

EUR/JPY: 95.00.

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Edited by ryuroden

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AUD/USD: technical comments

AUD/USD trades below $1.0500 mark after falling to $1.0453 yesterday. The pair still remains in a correction mode. At the same time, uptrend borders are intact for now and Aussie has chances to further gains as long as it’s staying above support in the $1.0440/50 area (August 1, 3, July 30 minimums, July 19 maximum).

It makes sense to look for opportunities to buy AUD/USD at $1.0530 and higher. Note that resistance for the pair lies at $1.0600 (psychological level, recent maximums), $1.0660 (downtrend resistance line connecting 2011 and 2012 maximums).

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Chart. AUD/USD

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US Treasuries: Japan’s catching up with China

For now China remains the top holder of US debt, but if both countries continue buying at their respective paces until the end of 2012, Japan will end the year with more Treasuries. Japan’s buying US dollars trying to contain yen’s appreciation.

Japan bought $10.4 billion of Treasuries in June. All in all, the nation purchased $61.3 billion of American debt in 2012. Japan’s total holdings of Treasuries account for $1.1193 trillion.

China increased its portfolio of US government securities by $300 million in June. This year’s purchases are equal to $12.4 billion. All in all, China’s holdings of Treasuries account for $1.1643 trillion.

While China’s holdings have fallen by around $143 billion in the past year, Japan has boosted its portfolio by $237 billion in the same period.

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Analysts: comments on BoE easing prospects

Positive July UK retail sales figures (+0.3% vs. consensus 0.0%, June reading was revised to +0.8%) together with yesterday’s labor market data made many investors more optimistic on Britain’s economic prospects. However, specialists at ING and Rabobank still expect the BoE to continue monetary policy easing.

ING: The uncertainty over the UK data, coupled with worries about Europe and the US fiscal cliff will keep the BoE wary. We expect the central bank to introduce more stimulus in November.

Rabobank: The BoE's QE expansion is possible at the end of 2012. We acknowledge the positive UK employment and retail sales data, but on balance the UK economy is providing little cause for celebration.

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USD/JPY needs to close above 200-day MA

The greenback is rising versus Japanese yen for the fourth day in a row. USD/JPY has tested the levels above the 200-day MA for the first time since the middle of July. Today the pair renewed 1-month maximum rising to 79.36. We think that US dollar has to close today above the 200-day MA at 79.20 for the bulls to keep pushing the pair up towards 80.60 (June maximum). If this line is only pierced, the pair could drift lower aiming at 78 yen.

Here’s what other analysts say.

Standard Chartered: The greenback may rise to 80 yen in the short term.

CBA: When non-Japanese yields start rising, then you get more Japanese investors putting money offshore. This and low volatility are “very supportive of the yen’s weakness”.

Mizuho: In any case US dollar will find it tough to break above the 79.50 yen to 80.00 yen region unless there is another strong catalyst, given the potential for dollar-selling by Japanese exporters at such levels.

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Chart. Daily USD/CHF

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EUR/USD is seen under pressure

The single currency keeps descending from this week’s maximum at $1.2385 hit on Tuesday. On the fundamental front European data disappointed, while American, on the contrary, were better than expected.

Investors await details on a new ECB scheme to help reduce the borrowing costs of Spain and Italy that the central bank is now considering. According to Reuters’ poll, conducted at the beginning of August, economists expect the euro zone’s central bank to start purchasing Italian and Spanish bonds in September and cut benchmark rate to new record minimum of 0.5%.

Standard Chartered: “EUR/USD is in a range for now but we still expect it to move lower in September on the prospect of more headlines out of Europe, a lot of event risk in September, and rate cuts as well. Our forecast for EUR is $1.18 by the end of the quarter.”

Nomura: According to the data, "central banks have been strongly accumulating US dollars. If this trend continues, demand for dollars will outpace that of euro, so it will be hard for EUR/USD to bounce meaningfully".

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Morgan Stanley: global economy under threat

According to specialists at Morgan Stanley, the global economy has fallen deeper into the twilight zone that divides slow economic rebound from renewed recession.

Specialists explain the cuts by the rise in policy uncertainty, mainly in the US, Europe and Japan and by the out-of-date emerging market economic models. In their view, EM policymakers chose the wrong economic path, what caused problems in China, India and commodity-exporting countries. It is interesting to note that the emerging markets suffer more than the developed markets as they vulnerable to extremely weak incoming data.

Specialists have cut their GDP growth forecasts to 3.2% in 2012 and to 3.5% in 2013 over the past three weeks.

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August 17: forex news

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Asian markets are on the rise this week and higher-yielding AUD and NZD head for weekly gains versus yen. These currencies, however, are on the defensive against the greenback this week as US dollar strengthened due to positive American data.

EUR/USD keeps trading sideways in the $1.2370/2260 area. Euro is pressured by the rumors that Spain may ask for sovereign bailout earlier than expected. Spanish government meets today, so there’s the risk of some announcement. EUR/JPY is trading close to the 6-week high reached on Thursday around 98 yen as Germany signaled its support for the ECB’s approach to resolve the debt crisis. In Europe watch for Germany PPI at 06:00 GMT, euro zone’s current account at 08:00 GMT and the region’s trade balance at 09:30 GMT.

USD/JPY managed to close above 200-day MA yesterday – the sign that the bulls are gathering strength and will now have stronger support. The 2-year yields spread between US and Japanese bonds widened to 19.4, the maximal level since July 3.

USD/CAD breached support of 0.9900. Canada released July CPI data today (12:30 GMT).

Minneapolis Fed President Narayana Kocherlakota said yesterday that despite continued high unemployment the Fed may need to raise interest rates sooner than late 2014. Today in the US watch for August consumer sentiment data (13:55 GMT).

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Key options expiring today

Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (2 p.m. GMT).

Here are the key options expiring today:

EUR/USD: $1.2200, $1.2275, $1.2300, $1.2350, $1.2400;

GBP/USD: $1.5760;

USD/JPY: 78.35, 78.50, 79.00, 79.05, 79.10;

AUD/USD: $1.0405, $1.0600;

EUR/JPY: 97.00, 97.05, 98.00;

EUR/GBP: 0.7800, 0.7950;

AUD/JPY: 83.00.

flatline.jpg

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UK GDP may be revised upwards

According to many economists, the 0.7% UK GDP drop in Q2 may be a little too pessimistic. Last week the BoE Governor Mervyn King also spoke out on this subject: he said he expected the official GDP data to be better.

Data released this week are in contradiction with the output data: retail sales were a positive shock for the markets and the employment is rising. For this reasons the Q2 GDP contraction may be revised to 0.4% The figure is still negative, but obviously looks less threatening.

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USD/JPY: bullish view (Barclays)

Analysts at Barclays claim that USD/JPY may rise to 85 yen in 3 months. The main reason why the specialists are bullish on the greenback is that they think that American economy bottomed out in Q2 and its recovery will gain pace in Q4.

Yen tended to appreciate in August. This year, however, that may not be the case as US dollar is driven higher with the help of rising US yields. 10-year Treasury yield rose on Thursday to 3-month high 1.862%. Barclays underlines that many stock markets started rising already in June, while but Treasury yields kept falling until the end of July and reversed up only when Spanish yields eased off the record highs on the ECB’s pledges to do all it can to save the euro.

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Chart. US 10-year Treasury yield (blue) and 10-year JGB yield (red)

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EUR/AUD moves on the upside

On Wednesday the Australian dollar weakens versus its major counterparts. EUR/AUD has already moved up from 1.1730 to 1.1830 levels. Today’s EUR/AUD rise may be the start of a new trend. If the pair manages to fix above 1.9000, we’ll see the bottom formed at 1.6000.

According to analysts, the pair follows the AUD/USD sharp decline caused by some aggressive Aussie selling. It’s important to remember that the RBA is concerned by Aussie's strength, so bearish comments from the regulator are possible.

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Chart. Daily EUR/AUD

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Aspen Trading: buy EUR/AUD

Analysts at Aspen Trading Group are bullish on the euro vs. the Aussie. They recommend buying EUR/AUD at current levels, with a stop at 1.1650 and a target at 1.2000.

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Chart. Daily EUR/AUD

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SocGen: EUR/USD in the $.2100/2500 area

Analysts at Societe General made an attempt to clarify on what grounds euro stands. The Specialists note that EUR/USD has moving sideways between $1.2100 and $1.2500 for the past few weeks.

“Euro is caught in between two opposing forces. On the one hand, the market is waiting to see if there will be a Greek holiday regarding them servicing their debt. On the other side, we have US data outperforming the G5 peers at the moment.”

Societe General recommends waiting for a sign that investors’ sentiment is really changing. According to the bank, this may happen as soon as Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke’s speech at Jackson Hole.

“If the euro breaks above 1.2500, it would probably mean that there is action coming from the ECB or the Spanish government, in other words, that something has happened to make us say there’s more room for appreciation in the euro. On the contrary, if EUR/USD breaks below $1.2100, it would mean that we’ve been disappointed by the ECB, so the US data and higher US yields are leading the direction.”

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Chart. H4 EUR/USD

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Commerzbank: levels for EUR/USD

Analysts at Commerzbank note that EUR/USD is testing the 55-day MA at $1.2395. In their view, if the pair overcomes this level, it will be able to rise to $1.2440 (August maximum). According to the bank, the latter will contain at least in the near-term.

On the downside, the specialists think euro will become vulnerable for a slide to $1.2162/33 (mid-July minimum and the current August trough) and $1.2042 (July minimum) only if it falls below $1.2255 (Thursday’s minimum).

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Chart. Daily EUR/USD

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MIG Bank: trading USD/CHF

Analysts at MIG Bank recommend placing buy limit at 0.9630 and targeting 0.9730/0.9980/1.0300 and with stop at 0.9530.

Yesterday USD/CHF breached support line going up from August minimums. However, the specialists believe that support around 0.9660 is strong and able to make the pair recoil upwards: “We view the structure present since 0.8931 as being strongly positive and look for an eventual break back over 0.9972 to target 1.0300 initially and then higher.” The outlook will stop being bullish if the greenback dips below 0.9425 (June minimums).

We’d like to add that 1.0300 (200-week MA) represents a very strong resistance: the last time US dollar traded above it on a sustainable basis was in 2002.

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Chart. Daily USD/CHF

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AUD/USD: ready for a further drop

On Monday AUD/USD tested the lower boundary of the upper channel which exists since June after the RBA dovish comments. The pair trades around $1.0435 (the lowest level since July 27) after a slide lower.

As can be seen from the daily chart, AUD/USD is forming a “rounded top” pattern since late July with a neckline at $1.0435. A close below the level will pave the ground for a further decline to $1.0290 (200-day MA).

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Chart. Daily AUD/USD

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Merkel: Germany is in line with ECB to save the euro

According to German chancellor Angela Merkel, her country is committed to doing everything it can to preserve the euro and called once more for fiscal discipline. Mrs. Merkel praised the European leaders for making progress, but underlined the time is pressing.

These days Angela Merkel is passing through difficult times. As leader of Europe’s largest economy and the biggest single contributor to euro-region bailouts, Merkel is facing pressure from Italy and Spain to pool debt and to bring down bond yields, from Greece to back an easing of its austerity timetable and from the ECB for politicians to take the lead in fighting the crisis. She also faces domestic pressure from her coalition partners to refuse any more aid for Greece.

Next week Merkel starts a new round of political activity: Germany hosts French President Francois Hollande on August 23, one day before Greek Prime Minister Antonis Samaras visits Berlin for talks.

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Source: Bloomberg

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August 20: forex news

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The high-yielding currencies strengthen before the European leaders meet this week. The ECB may set limits on yields of euro zone sovereign debt by pledging unlimited bond purchases, what will support investor appetite for riskier assets. However, demand for AUD and NZD is tempered as the Fed meeting minutes on Wednesday may lower expectations for further monetary stimulus. Australia will release the RBA meeting minutes tomorrow. AUD/USD trades around $1.0450 and close to the lower boundary of the upward channel existing since June, while NZD/USD trades above the strong support at $0.8065.

The market’s attention this week is focused on the European politics: Greece’s Prime Minister Antonis Samaras meets Luxembourg’s Prime Minister Jean-Claude Juncker on Wednesday, German Chancellor Angela Merkel on Friday and French President Francois Hollande on Saturday. On Friday there will also be Hollande-Merkel meeting.

Last week EUR/USD was moving sideways in the $1.2260/2385 area. Today the pair is little changed from Friday’s close at $1.2334. The day is quite uneventful. Spanish 10-year yields ended last week at 6.44%, while Italian ones – at 5.78%, below the critical maximums.

USD/JPY was steadily rising last week and managed to rise above 200-day MA, but now stalled around resistance at 79.60 yen (100-day MA). Yen’s weakening is limited by demand for Japanese government bonds as Japan has the highest real interest level after Italy in G7.

GBP/USD is trading sideways around $1.5700. Last week it closed below 200-day MA at $1.5713.

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Key options expiring today

Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (2 p.m. GMT).

Here are the key options expiring today:

EUR/USD: $1.2250, $1.2400, $1.2450;

USD/JPY: 79.00, 79.15, 79.25;

AUD/USD: $1.0300, $1.0350, $1.0570, $1.0600;

NZD/USD: $0.8100, $0.8150;

EUR/JPY: 98.00:

AUD/JPY: 81.00.

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Scotiabank: trading opportunities alert

Analysts at Scotiabank note that while EUR/USD was trading sideways last week, there are many other trading opportunities.

“EUR/CAD at new record lows; USD/JPY finally breaking out of its 16-session 88-point range; AUD/CAD collapsing lower. No time for the sidelines,” the specialists say.

The bank draws particular attention to Canadian dollar: “CAD has strengthened beyond where oil or interest rates would justify. There have been CAD positive flows this week that might have pushed it too far. Watch Canadian political landscape, since upcoming provincial elections could create some event risk.”

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Image from theoptionstradingcourse.com

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CFTC traders positioning data

The latest Commitments of Traders (COT) report, released on Friday, August 17, by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), showed that on a week ended August 14:

Non-commercial large futures traders, including hedge funds and large speculators, cut their total US dollar long positions to $8.92 billion on August 14 from a total long position of $11.7 billion on August 7. Speculator sentiment for the euro dipped last week after improving for three consecutive weeks. Net short British pound positions shrank last week and reached a virtually neutral level against the US dollar. Japanese yen net long positions edged up slightly following a dip the previous week. Swiss franc net short speculative positions increased after improving for two consecutive weeks. Loonie, ausie and kiwi net long positions keep on rising.

Take a look at the following table.

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It’s necessary to note that the figures cited above are always a week old at the time of their release. Never the less, CFTC data gives a good oversight into how the market is positioned and if/how these positions are being unwound. Although the CME speculators represent a small fraction of trading in the currency markets, their trades are widely seen as typical of hedge fund investors' currency movements.

In the COT report all the market players are divided into three categories: hedgers (commercials), big speculators (non-commercials) and small traders (non-reportable positions). We analyze only non-commercial positions (mainly, these are banks and investment funds).

We recommend you paying attention to:

Extreme Positions: If everyone is already long or short it is a strong indication price may reverse because there is no one left for buyers to buy from and no one left for sellers to sell to.

Changes in Market Positions: When large speculators change their position and go from net long to net short or vice versa, there typically is a good reason they do this.

Changes in Open Interest: Rising or falling open interest may reflect directional commitment or lack thereof and therefore indicate strength or potential reversal of a particular price trend.

Find more at the CFTC website.

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