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Key options expiring today

Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (2 p.m. GMT).

Here are the key options expiring today:

EUR/USD: $1.2150, $1.2200, $1.2220, $1.2250, $1.2260, $1.2300

USD/JPY: 77.50, 78.10, 78.45, 78.50, 79.00

GBP/USD: $1.5600, $1.5610, $1.5650, $1.5680

EUR/GBP: 0.7795

EUR/CHF: 1.2025

AUD/USD: $1.0525, $1.0585

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AUD/USD: technical comments

AUD/USD gains after yesterday’s drop on FOMC results. The pair slid from a four-month high at $1.5051 (August 1 maximum) below the important support at $1.0475 (April 27 maximum, beginning of a sharp May decline), but now is moving on the upside. The pair still trades close to the upper boundary of the upward channel existing since mid-June. On the daily and H4 chart the pair trades above the up-directed 200-, 100- and 50-period MAs. On Tuesday a shooting star candlestick formed on a daily chart.

In our view, a medium-term uptrend looks rather resilient. The next strong resistance lies only at $1.0750/60 (Sep. and Oct. 2011 maximums) and at $1.0855 (2012 maximum), though there will probably be some hurdles around $1.0625 (March 20 maximum, February 14 minimum). Bulls have a clear advantage above $1.0475 (April 27 maximum, beginning of a sharp May decline).

We concede a correction to $1.0400 (middle of the channel) and to $1.0280 (200-day MA). If you want to sell on corrective more, wait for a decline below $1.0435 and target $1.0300.

Exit from the upward channel will pave the ground for a further decline to $1.0176 (July 25 minimum) and to $1.0100 (July 12 minimum).

daily_audusd_02.08_12-41.gif

Chart. H4 AUD/USD

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RBC: sell USD/JPY on rallies

USD/JPY continues trading in its habitual patterns in the H1 chart: consolidation – move on the news – leveling up etc. Yesterday’s lack of easing on the Fed’s part brought the pair above 78.35, to the new higher range.

Analysts at Societe Generale note that USD/JPY rallied on each central bank meeting day this year except on January 12 when the ECB and the BOE left their policies unchanged.

RBC recommends selling US dollar on rallies as this is, in their view, exactly what domestic investors in Japan will do. The specialists remind that yen tends to appreciate in August due to by Japanese investors’ coupon receipts on US Treasuries holdings and unusually low liquidity in forex markets in the month.

Support: 78.30/25 (recent resistance of the narrow sideways range, 50-period MA on H4 chart, MAs at H1 chart), 78.00, 77.90.

Resistance: 78.55 (today’s maximum), 78.65, 78.80, 79.00, 79.20.

h4_usdjpy_12-53.gif

Chart. H4 USD/JPY

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Analysts: comments ahead of the BoE

BARCLAYS: No policy easing is expected until November's MPC meeting. Today's ECB meeting is potentially likely to be a bigger driver of the pound, than the BoE meeting.

MORGAN STANLEY: Recent weak economic data means markets might be looking for the BOE to take action but this is unlikely to happen yet. Ahead of the meeting, sterling could come under pressure although the currency could enjoy a rebound as the BOE disappoints investors hoping for a dovish outcome.

CAPITAL ECONOMICS: We expect more asset purchases and a 25 b.p. rate cut, but not until November.

IHS GLOBAL INSIGHT: A rate cut is off the cards for now as it would hit banks' profit margins and constrain their ability to lend. An additional 25 billion pounds of asset purchases is likely to happen in Q4.

ROYAL BANK OF CANADA: We don’t expect any measures this week. However, the combination of last week's dismal growth data and a sharp fall in inflation means next week's inflation report could signal another 50 billion pounds increase in the bond-buying stimulus program in November.

GOLDMAN SACHS: No change is expected in the BOE's stance this week. However, we think further 25 billion pounds easing is likely to be necessary in November, when the existing QE program runs out

CITIGROUP: No change is expected as the BOE won’t react so quickly to last week's disappointing growth data.

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BarCap: play on SNB’s selling euro

This week the Swiss National Bank reported that the share of its euro holdings increased from 51% in Q1 to 60% in Q2.

Analysts at Barclays Capital are sure that the SNB will have no choice, but to sell the single currency reducing its exposure to its depreciation. In their view, the central bank’s move will have the biggest impact on EUR/CAD and EUR/GBP, some of which has likely already happened in July. Aussie will be also supported by the SNB’s diversification flows.

appenzell,_switzerland1.jpg

Idyllic Swiss countryside. Photo by alex_zbruew

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USD/CHF: strong resistance ahead

USD/CHF keeps moving up within a gently sloping gently sloping uptrend which started in May. On July 24 the greenback reached the maximal level since November 2010 around 0.9970.

The pair’s currently trading around 0.9790. Note that this is only 250 pips below the 200-week MA at 1.0040. This level represents an extremely strong resistance as US dollar hasn’t been able to consolidate its position above this line since 2002. This is why we expect USD/CHF to stall below the parity.

For now, it’s difficult to come up with a fundamental driver which could help US dollar overcome an immense resistance of the 200-week MA and bring it above this level on the sustainable basis. The Fed refrained from easing and may keep doing so until the Operation Twist is over late in December, while the US economic performance remains far from encouraging. Moreover, no need to explain what burden is US so-called fiscal cliff for US currency and these problems will be also at full sight as the year-end approaches.

On H4 chart we see what may become a “head and shoulders” formation. If the pattern is completed and the neckline around 0.9750 breached, we will be looking forward to a decline to the 0.9570/50 area (January maximums).

h4_usdchf_14-40.gif

Chart. H4 USD/CHF

Resistance: 0.9970 (July 24 maximum), 1.0000 (psychological level), 1.0040 (200-week MA).

Support: 0.9750 (July 17 minimum), 0.9660 (June 8 and 29 maximums), 0.9580/70 (January maximums).

daily_usdchf_14-37.gif

Chart. Daily USD/CHF

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Commerzbank: comments on EUR/GBP

EUR/GBP strengthens for a third consecutive day on Thursday. Today the pair reached a 3-week high at $0.7905, but then slid below a psychological $0.7900 level.

Analysts at Commerzbank expect the pair to push higher to $0.7905/50 in a near term (38.2% Fib. retracement from a May-June decline and the May minimum). After a short-term correction the pair is likely to resume a longer term downtrend.

daily_eurgbp_02.08_14-41.gif

Chart. Daily EUR/GBP

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GBP/USD: technical comments

GBP/USD surged to $1.5678 on ECB and Mario Draghi’s comments, but then slid back to $1.5500 levels. This week the pair declined for three consecutive days, showing the sharpest fall on Wednesday. The pair has been bouncing in a flat range since June after trading in a bearish channel in May.

In our view, GBP/USD is likely to remain in a sideway channel in the nearest future because of the strong resistance levels concentrated in the $1.5735/85 area (200-day MA, 50% Fib. retracement from a May drop and the upper boundary of a daily Ichimoku cloud). A close above $1.5780 could open the way for a further rise to $1.5904. On a downside the next support for the pair out of the bounds of the sideways channel lies at $1.5392 (July 12 minimum) and at $1.5267/33 (June and 2012 minimums).

According to analysts at Commerzbank, GBP/USD may fall to $1.5000 (two-year low) after it failed to overcome the $1.5735/85 resistance area. In their view, repeated failure to break through the resistance means the pair will depreciate in 1-3 month.

daily_gbpusd_02.08_17-23.gif

Chart. Daily GBP/USD

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Draghi’s press conference

The ECB President Mario Draghi delivered almost nothing today: it seems by claiming that the ECB will do whatever needed to save euro Draghi simply delayed the inevitable slide of the single currency.

The ECB governing council discussed rate cut, but concluded that the time for then isn’t right.

Draghi:

- “There was no mentioning of bond buying last week. I just gave the general philosophy of the ECB’s approach”.

- The EFSF should buy the debt of the euro zone’s problem nations. As for the ECB, it may take further non-standard measures. The central bank’s going to discuss options of future action including unconventional policies and “there’s no need to specify them,” “the relevant committees should examine further measures.”

- Monetary policy can’t solve all the problems of the euro area. Governments have to act.

- Inflation should decline further to below 2% in 2013. Inflation expectations are firmly anchored.

- Euro zone growth remains weak.

- Heightened uncertainty is weighting on euro sentiment. Euro is irreversible. “It’s pointless to go short on euro. It will survive”.

- Risk premium for some nations is exceptionally high. High yields are unacceptable.

- “Any bond buying will be focused on the short part of the yield curve.”

- “Current design of ESM does not allow it to be recognized as a suitable counterparty.”

- “I am surprised by amount of attention ESM banking license has received.”

EUR/USD spiked up to $1.2294 before plunging to $1.2173.

mario-draghi-120112.jpg

Image by Getty

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PBoC promises to fight slowdown

The People's Bank of Chinar pledged to use multiple monetary policy tools to guide stable and appropriate growth in credit and money supply, to forge ahead with market-based interest rate reforms and to increase the flexibility of the yuan in order to resolve domestic economic problems.

According to regulator's second-quarter monetary policy implementation report, the global economy may fall into recession again. The euro zone’s debt crisis is likely to worsen, while US economy still doesn’t have a necessary ground for a steady rebound.

china_bank_bloomberg.jpg

Photo: Bloomberg

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August 3: forex news

utro_eng.jpg

After 2 days of central banks’ meetings the market’s holding its breath ahead of July Non-Farm payrolls report released in the US at 12:30 GMT (cons.: +100K, prev.: +80K). American unemployment rate is seen unchanged at 8.2%. In the US also watch ISM non-manufacturing PMI. On Friday market participants avoid making any moves.

The Asian session was quite as we've got used to this week. High-yielding currencies demonstrate a moderate growth. AUD/USD strengthens for a second consecutive day as yesterday’s drop on ECB was offset. NZD/USD gains as Standard & Poor’s affirmed the nation’s credit rating and said its outlook is stable. USD/CAD moves on a downside after a three-day growth. Japanese yen weakens vs. the greenback ahead of NFP. USD/JPY slid back to the 78.30/00 range. Today the greenback initially fell towards the lower border of this area, but then managed to return to 78.25 yen.

EUR/USD is crawling up from yesterday minimum at $1.2133 hit after the ECB’s Draghi disappointed the markets who expected more. So far, euro has managed to retrace about 50 pips rising to the levels around $1.2185 – most of this move was accomplished during US session. Spanish 10-year yields jumped yesterday from 6.6% to 7.25%. In Europe we’ll get some PMI figures (Spain, Italy, France, and Germany) and euro zone’s retail sales.

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Key options expiring today

Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (2 p.m. GMT).

Here are the key options expiring today:

EUR/USD: $1.2000, $1.2025, $1.2180, $1.2195, $1.2200, $1.2240, $1.2250, $1.2300, $1.2325, $1.2370;

USD/JPY: 77.30, 77.50, 78.00, 78.50, 78.75;

GBP/USD: $1.5500, $1.5580;

USD/CAD: 1.0000;

AUD/USD: $1.0500, $1.0550.

flatline.jpg

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Commerzbank: negative bias for EUR/USD

Technical analysts at Commerzbank point out that EUR/USD didn’t manage to overcome resistance at $1.2390 (23.6% Fibonacci of the pair’s decline in 2012). Euro will remain under bearish pressure as long as it’s trading below $1.2406 (yesterday’s peak). Support lies at $1.2130/15 and $1.2042 (July minimum). Resistance is found at $1.2406 and $1.2527.

h4_eurusd_11-40.gif

Chart. H4 EUR/USD

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Barclays: comments on AUD prospects

According to currency strategists at Barclays, in a near-term AUD/USD is likely to get under pressure because of the increased risk aversion, commodity prices drop and slow growth of Australian trading partners. Specialists expect Aussie to decline to $1.0100 in a month.

daily_audusd_03.08_11-49.gif

Chart. Daily AUD/USD

Analysts also remain bearish on AUD/NZD as the Australian currency is very sensitive to global stock prices. They expect the pair to drop to $1.2800 in a month.

daily_audnzd_03.08_11-47.gif

Chart. Daily AUD/NZD

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NZD/USD: technical comments

On Friday NZD/USD strengthens for a second consecutive day. The pair trades above $0.8100, staying beyond the sideway channel the pair left last Friday. NZD/USD traded sideways after an uptrend early June. On the H4 and daily charts the pair trades above the 200-, 100- and 50-day MAs. On a daily chart RSI is close to 70, indicating the kiwi will soon become overbought.

In our view, bulls have a clear advantage as NZD/USD remains above $0.8045 (upper boundary of the sideway channel). The pair may strengthen to $0.8240 (April 30 maximum), passing hurdles at $0.8170 (August 2 maximum) and $0.8200. On a downside, nearest support for the pair lies at $0.8045 and at $0.7960 (crossing of the 100- and 200-day MAs).

daily_nzdusd_03.08_12-46.gif

Сhart. Daily NZD/USD

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Pimco: global growth’s considerably slowing

Strategists at Pacific Investment Management Co. (Pimco), the world’s largest bond fund, think that global economy is suffering its severest slowdown since the global recession ended in 2009.

According to Pimco, the world’s GDP will add 2.25% during the next 12 months. That’s less that in 2011 and 2010 – 3.9% and 5.3% respectively (IMF data). In 2009 global economy contracted by 0.6%.

The main problems are the debt crisis in Europe and economic slowdown in US and China. The odds of recession in America are estimated by 25-33%. The possibility of euro area’s break-up during the next 6 months is estimated by 35%. Pimco expects European economy to contract by 1.5% in the coming year after rising by 1.5% in 2011.

pimco_logo_2519.jpg

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USD/JPY: technical picture

Things are quite boring at USD/JPY H4 chart – the pair’s consolidating in a slightly broader range than before between 78 yen on the downside (psychological level) and 78.65 yen on the upside (June 15 minimums, last week maximums).

It seems that that as long the greenback’s trading below 78.65, it’s vulnerable for retesting 77.65 (June minimum). If US currency manages to break above the mentioned resistance, it will be able to rise to 79.00/20 (psychological level, 50- and 200-day MAs).

h4_usdjpy_13-17.gif

Chart. H4 USD/JPY

Support: 78.00, 77.90, 77.65.

Resistance: 78.65, 78.80, 79.00, 79.20.

The broader technical picture remains negative – the downtrend from June 2007 (124.13) remains in place, though the consolidation may continue for some more time.

weekly_usdjpy_13-20.gif

Chart. Weekly USD/JPY

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Analysts: comments on BoE decision

Barclays Research: The August Inflation Report (next Wednesday) is expected to be dovish as the domestic economy and external demand both are weak and inflation in decline. We expect the MPC to increase QE in November by 50 billion pounds and to cut Bank rate to 0.25%.

Royal Bank of Scotland: Last month's boost to the asset purchase scheme needs a little time to bed in, as do the new schemes to encourage lending. But the situation is serious, so the Committee is unlikely to have ruled out looser policy in future.

Investec: We continue to judge that for now the Bank will use quantitative easing tool. A Bank rate cut would hit bank’s margins and lending volumes.

bank-of-england.jpg

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GBP/USD: technical comments

On Friday GBP/USD gains despite today’s release showed UK services PMI dropped in July. The pair trades above $1.5500 and has completely retraced yesterday’s losses. This week GBP/USD declined for four consecutive days, touching $1.5490 on Thursday. On the H4 chart and on the daily chart the pair trades below the 200-, 100- and 50-day MAs. As can be seen from the daily chart, today sterling approaches the 50-day MA and the lower boundary of the Ichimoku cloud. The pair has been bouncing in a $1.5450-1.5750 range since June after trading in a bearish channel in May.

In our view, GBP/USD is likely to remain in a sideway channel in the nearest future because of the strong resistance levels concentrated in the $1.5735/85 area (200-day MA, 50% Fib. retracement from a May drop and the upper boundary of a daily Ichimoku cloud). Once inside the Cloud, the pair will likely reach its top or at least 200-day MA close which lies about 50 pips below the apper border of Kumo. A close above $1.5780 could open the way for a further rise to $1.5904. On a downside the next support for the pair out of the bounds of the sideways channel lies at $1.5392 (July 12 minimum) and at $1.5267/33 (June and 2012 minimums).

daily_gbpusd_03.08_14-13.gif

Chart. Daily GBP/USD

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London Olympics disappoint

According to recent data, London Olympics attracted around 100 000 foreign tourists. However, the figure is modest in comparison to 300 000 people normally visiting London in August. Event the city center is desert, because the Londoners are afraid of the inrush of tourists.

Meanwhile, London hotels lower prices by 25% as the rooms lie empty. Workload of the subway increased only by 4%. All the above mentioned facts put in doubt the idea that the Olympic Games will boost the UK economy in a short term.

sadolympics.jpeg

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Analysts’ opinion about ECB’s approach

Draghi’s press conference has greatly agitated the markets as the ECB’s chief disappointed investors by announcing no new bond-buying and giving only some vague promises. Let’s see what analysts think about the whole situation:

ING Bank: “Nothing is going to happen until countries ask the [rescue funds] to intervene. The ECB is not the big savior of the euro.”

High Frequency Economics: “Once again, we have no commitment to action from the ECB, and no execution of promises previously made. Nothing seems set to happen now. Traders and investors who expected immediate action are, and should be, disappointed. More scolding of governments, but no ECB action, is the bottom line.”

Sumitomo Mitsui: “All the vital decisions seem to be pushed back to September. But given worries about funding of Greece and Spain, risk for financial markets will rise as time goes by.”

Barclays Capital: there was “a clear sign that the ECB is prepared to change policy significantly at its September meeting, in terms of purchasing debt without claiming seniority subject to the EFSF being deployed to buy government debt”.

BNP Paribas: “Expectations should have been much better managed, and Mr. Draghi's credibility is taking a hit accordingly.”

JP Morgan: “Draghi has unfortunately painted himself into a corner. The ECB does need to demonstrate its credibility... Otherwise Draghi will lose face completely.”

ecb-president-mario-dragh-008.jpg

Photograph: Alex Domanski/REUTERS

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BofA: EUR/GBP prospects

According to analysts at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, EUR/GBP is to decline to 0.7500 by the end of the year. However a bounce back to 0.8000 is expected by June 2013 as the euro starts to trend higher.

daily_eurgbp_03.08_17-32.gif

Chart. Daily GBP/USD

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August 6: forex news

utro_eng.jpg

EUR/USD is trading about 60 pips below 1-month maximum around $1.2440. Spanish 10-year yields closed on Friday right below the critical 7% mark, while Italian ones closed at 6.08%. Demand for the euro was limited before data tomorrow may show that Germany’s factory orders and Italy’s industrial production fell in June.

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index (MXAP) of shares gained 1.8%, snapping a three-day drop: markets still expect central bankers to stimulate economic growth. Demand for safe currencies, therefore, declined: Japanese yen and US dollar touched the lowest in more than three weeks against the euro. However, risky currencies’ growth is limited and “safe havens” have already started going up ahead of important events scheduled this week. USD/JPY remains flat, demonstrating a decline today.

Risky currencies carefully weaken after Friday’s rally on US NFP release: AUD/USD trades around $1.0560, slightly below a four-month high, while NZD/USD slipped from a three-month high and trades below $0.8200. USD/CAD trades on its lowest level in three month, hovering right above parity.

Events to watch today:

Euro area: Sentix investor confidence (8:30 GMT) is expected to decline from -29.6 in July to -30.8 in August. The indicator is in the negative zone since the second half of 2011.

US: You must have missing Bernanke with all the talk about the ECB, haven’t you? Well, we’re going to hear the news about the Fed’s Chairman anyway as he will speak in a prerecorded video about economic measurement before the 32nd General Conference of the International Association for Research in Income and Wealth. Bernanke may add some comments about the central bank’s decision to add monetary stimulus last week, but will probably say he’s still worried about the state of American economy.

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Key options expiring today

Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (2 p.m. GMT).

Here are the key options expiring today:

EUR/USD: $1.2300, $1.2400, $1.2500 (large);

GBP/USD: $1.5600;

USD/JPY: 77.75, 78.00, 78.25, 78.35, 79.00, 79.20;

AUD/USD: $1.0425, $1.0500, $1.0530;

EUR/JPY: 95.50;

EUR/GBP: 0.7775.

flatline.jpg

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FX majors from top forecasters

Here are the forecasts for EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, USD/CHF and EUR/JPY from top forecasters. Data were submitted on August 3.

prognozy_6_avg.png

Source: FX Week

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