Comments and forex-analytics from FBS

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EUR recovers on Nowotny’s comments

The single currency rose from the daily/weekly/2-year minimum versus the greenback around $1.2050 to the levels above $1.2100 snapping 5-day decline. The yields on Spanish 10-year bonds went down by 14 bps to 7.48%.

Euro got support after the ECB council member Ewald Nowotny claimed that there were arguments in favor of giving the European Stability Mechanism a banking license. In this case the ESM would get access to ECB lending. Such option eases concerns that 500 billion-euro ($608 billion) fund won’t be enough to cover funding needs of Spain or Italy.

The market is too short on euro, so the positive news provoked some short squeeze. Analysts at UBS don’t believe that the ESM may get banking license as the ECB President Mario Draghi has repeatedly rejected the idea. The specialists view Nowotny’s comments as “being slightly taken out of context" and think that "any such move seems unlikely.”

Analysts at Commerzbank “see temporary corrections of up to $1.2250 in EUR/USD at best, which offer better selling opportunities” expecting $1.2000 to be tested very soon.

Chart. H4 EUR/USD

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July 26: economy & currencies

EUR/USD is consolidating in the $1.2120/65 area after yesterday’s jerk up as the ECB’s Nowotny suggested the ESM might get a banking license. The market’s attention will be focused on Mario Draghi’s speech in a panel discussion in London along with the Bank of England’s governor King – investors will look for Draghi’s reaction on Nowotny’s comments. Germany Gfk сonsumer сonfidence slightly rose from 5.8 in June to 5.9 in July, while the nation’s import prices declined in June by1.5% (vs. –o.6% expected).

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index (MXAP) of stocks advanced 0.4%, capping four days of decline. The high-yielding currencies strengthen on the back of the improved risk appetite and as the U.S. data on Friday may show growth slowed in the world’s largest economy. NZD/USD rose after the RBNZ Governor Alan Bollard left benchmark interest rates on hold at 2.50% and said the economy should grow “modestly.” AUD/USD strengthens for a second consecutive days and trades above $1.3000, while USD/JPY demonstrates a modest growth after the safe Japanese currency strengthened for 6 consecutive days.

There are plenty of data released today: EU M3 and Italian retail sales at 08:00 GMT, US core durable goods and unemployment claims at 12:30 GMT, and US pending home sales at 14:00 GMT.

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EUR/USD: consolidating within downtrend

EUR/USD is consolidating in the $1.2130/65 area after yesterday it gained about 80 pips on the ECB’s Nowonty comments about the possibility of giving a banking license to the ESM. Spanish 10-year government bond yields declined from the record highs around 7.75% to the levels near 7.38%.

Analysts at Credit Agricole think that any bounce of the single currency will be short-lived. “The ECB is still quite divided on the issue of giving the ESM a banking license”, say the specialists. At the same time, the bank underlines that the single currency will be supported ahead of the Fed’s meeting next week (August 1) on the talk that US central bank may take some easing steps. Speculation about the possibility of such action will strengthen if weak US Q2 GDP is released on Friday. Don’t forget, however, that the central bank extended Operation Twist in June to the end of 2012.

Support: $1.2130 (today’s minimums, Monday’s highs, 100-hour MA), $1.2065 (Monday’s minimum), $1.2040 (2-year minimum hit on Tuesday).

Resistance: $1.2165 (yesterday’s maximums/July 12/23 minimums), $1.2180/90 (July 16, 17 minimums).

Chart. H1 EUR/USD

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AUD/USD: technical comments

On Thursday AUD/USD trades above $1.0300, demonstrating growth for a second consecutive day. As can be seen from the daily chart, today the pair trades close to the lower boundary of an upward channel existing since June. Yesterday the bulls managed to fix above an important 200-day MA. On the H4 chart the pair trades close above the up-directed 200-, 100- and 50-period MAs.

Resistance: $1.0400; $1.0443 (July 19 maximum); $1.0450 (April 12-13 double top); $1.0473 (April maximum); $1.0500; $1.0557 (March 27 maximum); $1.0635 (March 19 maximum); $1.0750/60 (Sep. and Oct. 2011 maximums); $1.0855 (2012 maximum)

Support: $1.0300/10 (psychological and 50-period MA on the H4 chart); $1.0280 (200-day MA); $1.0264 (100-period MA on the H4 chart); $1.0200 (psychological and a 100-day MA); $1.0168 (200-period MA on the H4 chart); $1.0100 (July 12 minimum); $1.0057 (50-day MA); $0.9968 (June 22 minimum); $0.9579 (June 1 minimum)

In our view, a medium-term uptrend looks rather resilient: further advance of the Aussie may lead AUD/USD to $1.0443 (July maximum) and $1.0473 (April maximum). On a downside, a break below the 200-day MA ($1.0280) will pave the ground for a further decline to $1.0176 (July 25 minimum) and to $1.0100 (July 12 minimum).

Chart. Daily AUD/USD

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Westpac: outlook for AUD/USD

According to analysts at Westpac, AUD/USD is unlikely to breach the $1.0350-1.0400 area without Fed or ECB intervention.

Specialists, however, note the resilience of demand for the Aussie this month. In their view, in a near term $1.0400 levels look a little bit pricey for the pair. They expect AUD/USD to return to similar levels no later than Q4.

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USD/JPY: technical update

The outlook for USD/JPY is neutral on the H1 chart where the greenback’s fluctuating in narrow range of 78.00/30 and negative on H4 chart where we the pair remains inside descending channel.

The pair will likely stay above 78.00 helped by demand from Japanese importers below this point at the risk of the BOJ intervention. At the same time, from the technical point of view, the next major support is only at 77.65 (June minimum). The bulls will take over the initiative once USD/JPY managed to return above 200-day MA above 79.00.

Resistance: 78.27 (yesterday’s maximum), 78.45 (July 20 minimum), 78.80 (July 20 maximum), 79.00.

Support: 78.00, 77.65 (June minimum), 77.35 (February 14 minimum, January 6 and 19 maximums).

Chart. Daily USD/JPY

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Commerzbank: comments on GBP/USD

GBP/USD trades on a downside for a second day. The sentiment surrounding the sterling remains anxious: the pair remains under pressure mainly after yesterday’s negative UK GDP release. The data could encourage the BoE to ease monetary policy further, weighing on the British currency.

According to technical analysts at Commerzbank, a recent failure to overcome the $1.5736/85 resistance area is likely to bring GBP/USD down to $1.5392 and then to $1.5267.

Chart. Daily GBP/USD

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EUR/JPY: short-term technical

EUR/JPY has hit 12-year minimum this week at 94.10 on concerns about Greece and Spain.

Japanese currency remains strong despite comments and threats of Japan’s monetary authorities. Risk appetite remains lackluster, so yen will likely continue being investors’ refuge.

Some analysts say the level of 94.00 yen may be a kind of a threshold eyed by the Bank of Japan as it’s said about the 78.00 mark for USD/JPY. At the same time, EUR/JPY remains within a clear downtrend and the negative bias here is much stronger than in USD/JPY taking into account the persistent euro zone’s problems. All in all, you may try small shorts below 95.20 as the EUR/JPY will likely revisit the recent lows.

Resistance: 95.20 (yesterday’s maximum), 95.40 (Friday’s closing level) and the 95.80 area (200-hour MA).

Support: 94.65 (50-hour MA), 94.40 and 94.10 (see the chart below).

Chart. H1 EUR/JPY

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USD/CAD: comments from Credit Agricole, TD

Credit Agricole: in the near term USD/CAD will keep trading sideways between 1.0250 and 1.0065 given the Bank of Canada’s tightening bias on the one hand and no clear resolution on the euro zone crisis and slower growth in the US on the other.

TD Securities: USD/CAD failed to deliver on the bull flag formation. The pair may still be consolidating after advance in May/June. As a result, the move higher may eventually resume: the bulls need to break above the channel resistance around 1.0270.

Chart. Daily USD/CAD

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EUR and GBP jumped on Draghi's comments

On Thursday the ECB president Mario Draghi pushed the single currency up by optimistic comments about the euro and the resolution of the crisis. “The ECB is ready to do whatever it takes to preserve the euro,” Draghi said during a speech in London today.

Moreover, US published a bunch of mixed data today:

June core durable goods orders: -1.1%(consensus: +0.1%; previous: +0.7%);

Unemployment claims: 353K (consensus: 381K; previous: 386K)

EUR/USD surged by more than 180 pips making the biggest advance versus the greenback in almost a month. The pair stalled around rather strong psychological resistance around $1.2300. Next resistance levels lie at $1.2315, $1.2330/40 and $1.2400, while support levels are found at $1.2285, $1.2250 and $1.2220.

GBP/USD rocketed above $1.5712 from today’s low $1.5470. Next resistance for the pair lies at $1.5715, $1.5736 and $1.5800, while support – at $1.5661, $1.5600, and $1.5595/80.

Chart. H1 EUR/USD

Chart. H1 GBP/USD

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July 30: forex news

The market was rather quiet during today’s Asian session; the major pairs were going through consolidation.

Investors’ attention will be focused on peripheral euro zone nations: Spanish flash Q2 GDP is released at 07:00 GMT (prev.: -0.3%, cons.: -0.4%). Later in the day Italy plans to sell 5.5 billion euro in long-term debt, including 10-year bonds. Current Italian 10-year bond yield is below 6% at 5.96%. Bloomberg reports that the European Commission will publish today household sentiment which may have dropped in July to almost 3-year minimum. In addition, euro is under pressure before data tomorrow may show that the region’s unemployment increased to a new record of 11.2% in June.

The ECB President Mario Draghi meets US Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner today, though no press conference will follow. Moody’s Investors Service warned that the ECB can’t resolve the debt crisis alone.

EUR/USD is trading in the $1.2292 area, about 100 pips below Friday’s peak. US dollar edged up against higher-yielding currencies, though demand for it is limited before the Fed’s 2-day meeting which starts on Tuesday. USD/JPY returned to 78.35 after testing the levels above 78.60 at the end of last week.

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Key options expiring today

Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (2 p.m. GMT).

Here are the key options expiring today:

EUR/USD: $1.2150, $1.2190;

GBP/USD: $1.5650;

USD/JPY: 77.90, 78.00, 78.20, 79.00;

USD/CHF: 0.9700, 1.0000;

EUR/JPY: 94.00, 96.00;

AUD/USD: 1.0310;

EUR/AUD: 1.1900;

AUD/NZD: 1.2975.

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CFTC trader positioning data

The latest Commitments of Traders (COT) report, released on Friday, July 20 by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), showed that on a week ended July 24:

Net long US dollar positions decreased to $19.8 billion (-23%), while net long yen positions surged to $4 billion (+128%) on the back of negative US data. The value of the euro net short positions declined to $ 23.4 billion. (-9%). The single currency fell to its lowest level since June 2010 but then bounced back as the euro shorts shrank. Investors expect the Swiss franc to deppreciate: net short positions rose to $3.3 billion (+10%). On the previous week the Aussie and the kiwi net longs increased. Net short positions on the loonie moved up, while on the pound - declined.

It’s necessary to note that the figures cited above are always a week old at the time of their release. Never the less, CFTC data gives a good oversight into how the market is positioned and if/how these positions are being unwound. Although the CME speculators represent a small fraction of trading in the currency markets, their trades are widely seen as typical of hedge fund investors' currency movements.

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EUR/USD: fundamental & technical

The single currency fell by 0.4% from 3-week high of $1.2390 touched on Friday to $1.2287, June 1 minimum. The majority of analysts believe that euro’s appreciation will be only temporary.

Last week the ECB President Mario Draghi pledged to do whatever it takes to save euro. But, as Sica Wealth Management’s expert said, “central bankers do not have the ability to do ‘whatever it takes’ to save the euro. They only have the ability to undermine their credibility by making promises they cannot keep.”

UBS: “We certainly don't rule out further short squeezes in the next few days towards 1.25 against the greenback. But it seems too early to conclude the single currency's downtrend since March has ended.”

Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley Securities: “The euro will continue to struggle. To resolve Europe’s debt crisis, monetary policy will have to bear a lot of the burden.”

From the technical point of view, we see a bullish divergence on daily MACD – a positive signal. At the same time, Fridays candle resembles a spinning top which is a sign of indecision.

Resistance: $1.2330/40 (recent session/Thursday’s maximums), $1.2390/1.2407 (June 28 lows/Friday’s highs).

Support: $1.2260 (July 6 minimum), $1.2241 (Friday’s minimum), $1.2220, $1.2165, $1.2040 (2-year minimum).

Chart. Daily EUR/USD

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AUD/USD: technical comments

On Monday AUD/USD slid from a four-month high as the risk appetite worsened ahead of the euro zone’s reports on consumer confidence and unemployment. The pair rose confidently for three consecutive days and managed to test a strong resistance at $1.0475, completely offsetting the May decline. AUD/USD remains in a bullish channel since June. On the H4 chart the pair trades above the up-directed 200-, 100- and 50-period MAs.

In our view, a medium-term uptrend looks rather resilient: if the bulls manage to fix above $1.0475, a further advance to $1.0855 will become possible. On a downside, a break below the 200-day MA ($1.0280) will pave the ground for a further decline to $1.0176 (July 25 minimum) and to $1.0100 (July 12 minimum).

Resistance: $1.0473 (April maximum); $1.0557 (March 27 maximum); $1.0635 (March 19 maximum); $1.0750/60 (Sep. and Oct. 2011 maximums); $1.0855 (2012 maximum)

Support: $1.0348 (50-period MA on the H4 chart); $1.0280 (200-day MA); $1.0283 (100-period MA on the H4 chart); $1.0200 (200-period MA on the H4 chart); $1.0191 (100-day MA); $1.0100 (July 12 minimum); $1.0083 (50-day MA); $0.9968 (June 22 minimum); $0.9579 (June 1 minimum)

Chart. Daily AUD/USD

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FX majors from top forecasters

Here are the forecasts for EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, USD/CHF and EUR/JPY from top forecasters. Data were submitted on July 27.

Source: FX Week

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USD/JPY: weekly Ichimoku report

Weekly USD/JPY

Now that’s something new: the baseline (1) and the conversion lines (2) are turning upwards – a sign of improvement of the pair’s technical picture.

Have a look at the ‘hammer’ candle formed last week: the pattern resembles the figure formed at the end of January. That time a significant advance of USD/JPY has followed. It’s too early to speak about a move like that now, but it’s already clear that the pair has solid support around 78 yen, whether it’s due to the risk of the Bank of Japan’s intervention or something. There’s a support line in place from 2011 minimums going through January, February, May and July minimums. In addition, the bottom of the Ichimoku Cloud around 77.30 is also a support.

At the same time, one has to understand that resistance for the pair is strong either (1, 2, Cloud’s top). Kumo (3) remains very thin – neither bulls, nor bears dominate the market. USD/JPY is under pressure from both sides.

Chart. Weekly USD/JPY

Daily USD/JPY

Let’s have a look at the daily chart. The prices are struggling to get above sloping down Tenkan-sen (1), the most important near-term resistance. The next obstacle is represented by the horizontal Kijun-sen (2). Support seems weaker at this timeframe (look at the chart).

In the first half of July the bulls tried to push the pair through the Cloud, but USD/JPY only managed to cross the lower edge of Kumo, nothing more. Now the Cloud has become much thinner, so the bulls have more chanced to succeed. This week we will probably see the pair above 78 yen struggling to get higher. The Fed’s meeting on Wednesday is a big event which has to be taken into account: dollar’s possibility to advance will be limited ahead of the event, later it may strengthen if US central bank doesn’t deliver much of easing., though in this case investors may turn their expectations to August.

Chart. Daily USD/JPY

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GBP/USD: technical comments

On Monday GBP/USD slid below $1.5700 from a five-week high after an increase on Thursday and Friday. As can be seen from the daily chart, sterling repelled from a 200-day MA, but trades close to the upper bond of the sideway channel. The pair has been moving sideways since June after trading in a bearish channel in May. On the H4 chart GBP/USD trades above the 200-, 100- and 50-day MAs.

In our view, GBP/USD is likely to remain in a sideway channel in the nearest future because of the strong resistance in the $1.5743/80 area. A close above $1.5780 could open the way for a further rise to $1.5904.

Support: $1.5661 (38.2% Fib. retracement of a May decline); $1.5580 (50-day MA); $1.5457 (July 25 minimum)

Resistance: $1.5715 (200-week MA); $1.5742 (200-day MA); $1.5780 (50% Fib. retracement, 100-day MA and June 20 maximum); $1.5904 (61.8% Fib. retracement)

Chart. Daily GBP/USD

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Balkanisation of European banking markets

German banks cut their net lending to Greece, Ireland, Italy, Portugal and Spain by nearly a fifth (55 billion euro) to a total of 241 billion euro between January and the end of May, the lowest level since 2005.

This development reflects growing fears of the euro zone’s break-up, says Morgan Stanley. The bank’s specialists warn that such move will harm “lending, economic recovery and be a source of systemic instability”.

Image from photosteve101 on Flickr

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BNZ: bullish view on NZD/USD

On Monday NZD/USD slid from a 2.5-month high above $0.8100, heading back into the sideway channel the pair left on Friday. The pair traded sideways after an uptrend early June.

According to analysts at BNZ, Friday’s break through $0.8080 resistance was a strong bullish signal. Despite the current kiwi’s weakness, specialists forecast an increase to $0.8200. On a downside, nearest support for the pair lies at $0.7960 (crossing of the 100- and 200-day MAs).

Chart. Daily NZD/USD

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Barclays: forecasts for EUR, USD and GBP

Analysts at Barclays give the following forecasts for the major currencies.

EUR: The ECB is widely expected to hold the policy rate unchanged on Thursday, so the focus will be whether it makes changes to the collateral framework and whether the bond purchase program will be re-activated. The meeting of Italy’s Prime Minister Mario Monti and Spanish Mariano Rajoy that is scheduled on the same day as the rate decision is also very important as it could result in one or both countries requesting that the EFSF buy their debt. More easing by the ECB may support risky assets if deemed credible but will unequivocally remain negative the EUR.

USD: The Fed will refrain from taking further policy action at the August FOMC, which is likely USD supportive, especially against low-yielding currencies. September is its most likely decision point. The outcome of US employment data on Friday will be critical for the prospect of USD. “We expect headline NFP of 100K (cf. 100K) and an unemployment rate of 8.2% (cf. 8.2%) and if correct, initial currency reaction is likely muted.” USD/JPY remains the most sensitive USD-cross to the employment report announcements.

GBP: A series of UK PMI data this week will be important following disappointing Q2 preliminary GDP (-0.7% vs. -0.2% expected). The existence of special factors such as weather and holidays makes it difficult to interpret the GDP data, and PMIs will shed more light on the underlying strength of UK economy. BoE rate decision (Thursday) becomes another local risk event to GBP, but it is widely expected to hold the policy rate and amount of asset purchases unchanged. Overall, these pieces of data probably won’t be a catalyst for a strong directional move in the GBP, however may add to GBP volatility over the course of next week.

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Macroeconomic indicators

The table below provides recent data on the main macroeconomic indicators and is an extremely valuable resource for any trader.

Table. Main macroeconomic indicators

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July 31: forex news and currencies

Risk sentiment is rather high today ahead of the central bank meetings scheduled this week. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index (MXAP) of stocks rose by 0.9%.

The greenback weakened versus the majority of its counterparts on the speculation of more easing from the Fed tomorrow. At the same time, euro’s advance has also stalled below $1.2300 due to the talk that the ECB may expand its balance sheet on Thursday to stem the rise of the region’s sovereign-bond yields. Spanish 10-year yields near 11-day minimums around 6.6%, and Italian ones at 6.15%, highest for last 3 days. EUR/USD rose from yesterday’s minimums around $1.2225 consolidating in the $1.2280/60 area.

AUD/USD touched its highest level in 4 months after a report today showed the nation’s building approvals decreased by less than economists expected, while NZD/USD trades on a 3-month maximum. USD/CAD touched the lowest level in more than 10 weeks. GBP/USD remains flat ahead of the news from euro zone, ready to follow the market sentiment. USD/JPY strengthens as high risk appetite sapped demand for safe currencies.

Europe: There is a bunch of data in Europe which may have some impact on euro: German retail sales, French consumer spending and PPI, Spanish retail sales, German and Italian unemployment. The markets will be looking at the euro zone’s CPI and unemployment figures. Germany will auction 3 billion of 3-year EFSF bonds at 06:00 GMT.

Canada: GDP may add 0.2% m/m in May after stronger than expected 0.3% increase in April as retail sales in May added 0.7%, manufacturing sales rose by 0.2% and the volume of wholesale trade increased by 0.4%.

US: CB Consumer confidence is probably low and that households may be spending less than they are earning.

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Key options expiring today

Market prices tend to move towards the strike price at the time large vanilla options (ordinary put and call options) expire. It happens (all things equal) as each side of the deal seeks to hedge its risk exposure. This action is most noticeable ahead of 10 a.m. New York time when the majority of options expire (2 p.m. GMT).

Here are the key options expiring today:

EUR/USD: $1.2150, $1.2200, $1.2235, $1.2380, $1.2400;

USD/JPY: 78.25, 79.00;

GBP/USD: $1.5660;

EUR/GBP: 0.7900.

AUD/USD: $1.0470.

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JPMorgan: bullish on NZD/USD

On Tuesday NZD/USD trades close to $0.8100, staying above the upper boundary of the sideway channel the pair left on Friday. The pair traded sideways after an uptrend early June.

According to analysts at JP Morgan, NZD/USD is likely to reach $0.8240 (the highest since April 30). Specialists believe the recent kiwi’s rally suggests there is potential for the pro-risk sentiment to push the pair higher. On a downside, nearest support for the pair lies at $0.7960 (crossing of the 100- and 200-day MAs).

Chart. Daily NZD/USD

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