Traderbeauty Method for the ES.

[Redbullish]

Thanks TB, nice call! The difference between our legs it's an easy problem to be solved: it all depends on how deep must be a swing to be considered...we are doing it in a discretionary way but we can simply define a minimum heigh on the zig-zag:

 

 

 

Both are right depending on what you consider major and which minor swings.

Also what Wcicom told makes sense to me, wait the break of 38.2 from last leg to consider a new low established, could be a good rule

[vit007]

just so you see how well my method is working ( most of the time lol )

i virtually went long now at 1918.75 first target is at least 1940 but most likely 1946 - so we are talking about almost 30 points without any indicators - just fibs.

obviously i am not going to sit here and watch and go in live- but we can wake up in the morning and see how wrong i was lol.

take care

jane

 

http://i.imgur.com/5B8UwBQ.jpg

 

One can argue and say that price hit yesterday POC (yellow line ) and reversed or price reached 1909 and previous resistance become a support (second picture pink arrow ) .

http://i65.tinypic.com/sya3b6.jpg

[admis]

One can argue and say that price hit yesterday POC (yellow line ) and reversed or price reached 1909 and previous resistance become a support (second picture pink arrow ) .

...

 

One doesn't exclude the other, but complements. The eternal problem of interpreting the same facts. ;)

Good to see you on the right track...

[Redbullish]

So, ...just thinking out loud, if we have a swing high enough to meet our zig-zag criteria, we can draw new fib down and look at 38.2 as pivot, then when engulfed we can establish the new top?

http://s17.postimg.org/4pqaf4b97/EPH6_Primary_Analysis_Feb_02_1817_PM_2_hour.jpg

 

http://s17.postimg.org/4cyw8xszj/EPH6_Primary_Analysis_Feb_02_1817_PM_2_hour.png

[Traderbeauty]

hi guys- i am so happy to see others fib and ideas- you guys are doing a great job.

here is my 2 cents analysis---

the hardest part of a trader is to know when do we have a retracment or is this a reversal.

this is a classic scenario- market bounced right of the big 50 as was shown above by redbulish.

on the other hand look at the chart posted bellow- we can see that the market bounce down right off the 1.9 and 1.6 fib extensions on two big legs.

the question is :ARE WE GOING DOWN FROM THE BIG 50 MEANING WE ARE GOING WAY DOWN TO 1700 SOMETHING OR ? IS THIS JUST A RETRACEMENT AND WE ARE GOING UP AND WILL BREAK LAST HIGH ?

the answer is : nobody knows. we can only speculate- we will know for sure only if we see lower lows and lower highs on the same time frame ( not on a small one)- as long as we dont see that-WE ASSUME THAT THE UP MOVE IS INTACT which is the case right now.

even with such a big move down the direction on the renko 18 ticks is still up and i expect it to reverse back upward either at the 61.8 or the 78.

right now i am very happy because as you know i am short 6 contracts and i am in the money with a target of at least 140 points for each contract- and i am not getting before lol.

i would be happier if the market bounces of the 61 or 78 up because then i will short more at the 1,272 lol

so lets just watch what is going on- again---- bottom line- the big chart is telling us to go short ( bounced off the 50 ) but the smaller time frame is still insisting on long.

this is a slow motion but this is exactly how it works on a much smaller time frames chart on a day trading.

take care

jane

 

http://i.imgur.com/V8MntfG.jpg

[Traderbeauty]

so lets see if the market reverses up at 1894 or at 1882

[vit007]

so we hit bottom of the channel , 38.3 fib and we still in uptrend with higher highs . Just 2 contracts long at 1892.7 stop 1888 first target 1917. not my stile of trading but trying to adapt to bigger time frames . With lately higher Volatility my stops were hit to often even I had a right direction .

Most difficult part to resist taking 10-20 tick profit .

 

 

http://i65.tinypic.com/358ccgi.jpg

Edited February 2, 2016 by vit007

[Traderbeauty]

great job vit- i did not see this channel.

[Redbullish]

http://s30.postimg.org/pt9l6sv4h/EPH6_Primary_Analysis_Feb_02_2230_PM_30_min.png

 

http://s18.postimg.org/qt447q2ex/EPH6_Primary_Analysis_Feb_02_2230_PM_30_min.png

 

(i hv some problem with image cropping...)

 

BTW nice confluence for a bounce, 1 step down and i think we can repeat the process for intraday:

-First signal for a long for me now would be the break of the TD lines, with 38.2 also in a nice volume confluence as 1° TG and pivot for further upmoves/downtrend continuations

Edited February 2, 2016 by Redbullish

[wizard101]

http://screencast.com/t/5N62W6YeWtG0

 

Not intending to hijack your wonderful thread Jane but also to add my 2 cents as to how often key fib exp, ext especially the 127%, 161.% will find that price often stalls and reverses from these areas and coupled with channels, parallel lines, trend lines or whatever else one wishes to apply in their arsenal and that these dynamic principles work in many multiple markets......Anyhow, as i write this the s&p500 is retracing back to the prior trend line which got broken and imho the key will be the current market structure low at at the bottom channel line and 78.6% which I am sure will be key to hold.....the next immediate line of resistance will be the test back to the prior broken swing lows which have not been tested yet.......

 

cheers and safe trading to all !

[wizard101]

http://screencast.com/t/4NX3NddEjNX

[Redbullish]

 

The trendline (i'm using level 3 points) filtered out well the overnight low giving the correct timing for entry

I've updated the Fibs to the new low: 38.2 hit and has resisted for the moment. Looks like it gonna be quite choppy btw

Edited February 3, 2016 by Redbullish

[wizard101]

http://screencast.com/t/WcC9RuHUzJT

[Traderbeauty]

great job wizard

thanks for sharing.

[Redbullish]

http://s13.postimg.org/y926ntxtz/EPH6_Primary_Analysis_Feb_03_2356_PM_30_min.png

 

http://s24.postimg.org/5sjo8jwmc/EPH6_Primary_Analysis_Feb_03_2356_PM_30_min.jpg

 

I dont know if i'm using them properly but for now they're useful to keep things in order.

I measured extension from overnight-low to low-of-day and it's exactly 138.2% of prev. measured move, while the 38.2 of this morning acted as resistence twice. Now i've redraw short term leg (yellow). Not so choppy but still a rangy day, nice daily pin.

[Traderbeauty]

market stopped right at the low BEFORE it can be considered change of direction-

my next shorts are at the 112 , 127 and 161 fib- see arrows.

as you can see- market is not strong at all and that is why i allow myself to short more at lower levels.

keep in mind that the market can go up to the to trend line which is above 2000.

so these three shorts - i am going to exit them with some nice profit and not keep them.

will keep you posted.

 

http://i.imgur.com/Ut5bQCy.jpg

[Traderbeauty]

here are some secrets- hope you learn from what i am going to show you.

on the left you can see the fibs that i believe will reverse the market down to a huge down target which i plan upon.

as you can remember i shorted at 1908.5 ( my post said to short at 1917.5 but because of all the chop i shorted earlier because i was flat which i hate lol )- today at the bottom i had almost $2000 per contract but i did not exit- you can say that i am not smart by leaving so much on the table- but you have to understand- this is slow motion trading and i will not exit before at least 145 points per contract ( got 6 of them ).

 

so now i am going to add more shorts - the big question is ----which ones to hold and which ones to exit with some nice profit ?

the answer---- i will decide once i see where is my ping pong wall- and here is my plan

 

market can easily go to 2080 or even higher but i dont think so.

 

you can see that we have a perfect confluence at the 112 fib ( on the right ) and the 50 big fib at 1950-1952 - if i see that the market reverses from there - I WILL KEEP THESE SHORTS FOR AT LEAST 200 POINTS .

but -.... if the market will bounce off the 1.2 i will exit both 1950 and 1961 at a 50 fib retracement which will still give me 30-40 points profit to keep.

 

if the market will go to the 1.6 1987 SEE CONFLUENCE-------------------------THINK THINK THINK - DONT JUST LOOK FOR INDICATORS TO DO YOUR JOB .

 

then i will keep these shorts for at least 300 points per contract.

 

so let the game continue-

again- this is live and dangerous- be careful and follow only on paper unless you have deep pockets .

 

good night

jane

 

oh- ps- look at today's candle ( as redbullish said-) we have a beautiful bullish candle so i hope to get filled soon.

 

http://i.imgur.com/zcxXmrD.jpg

[vit007]

I dont think there is any special method for fibs drawing. They only work because people use them ( self fulfilling prophecy )and you want to draw them the same way as majority does . As for 1987 area its a previous support that gong to become a resistance once we come to it .

Just my 5 cents

[wizard101]

http://screencast.com/t/LlUC7T4j8eoW

[wizard101]

good tg Jane :))

 

http://screencast.com/t/VDbORiNSOQ0I

[Traderbeauty]

wizard- very very very good.

going to check later all these tl and see if there are any confluences with my fibs and adjust my entries accordingly.

great job

thanks

[Traderbeauty]

today is a nice doji with lower volume- meaning- this is just a continuation- we should continue up tomorrow.

http://i.imgur.com/tPUnSBx.jpg

[wizard101]

http://screencast.com/t/6aPjzprykgZE

[wizard101]

http://screencast.com/t/c8azxoLG

[wizard101]

http://screencast.com/t/inCXiecnvqO

 

Good Hold Area imo would need to now take out prior high and down trend line.....if we can hold this support may see possibly the 127% of corrective wave current price range is contained within.....

Ultimately would like to see above the 161.8% and bigger corrective wave targets as measured out by Jane and myself in the bigger structure.....of course nothing definite lol and just highlighting probabilities within current structure.....