Technical Analysis by Vistabrokers

[Vistabrokers]

EUR / USD. End of the Week Expected to be Warm

 

Generally positive statistics on the US labor market, which has been published on Thursday, as well as a speech of a FOMC member Dennis Lockhart provoked the fall of the pair to an area of a short-term trend support line. It should be also noted that sales started from an important resistance level (61.8% Fibonacci correction of decrease in February-March), where long-term downtrend line also goes. Today, shortly after the opening of the US trading session the National Statistical Service of the United States will publish the final GDP for the fourth quarter of last year, and it is definitely worth attention.

 

http://s016.radikal.ru/i335/1503/72/e13ee0fab3ae.png

 

In the context of the observed volatility increase it is recommended to work on a breakthrough of nearest technical levels, but before opening the position, it is better to wait for confirmation from indicators. Thus, purchases are justified in a case of rebound from a support line with a target at 1.1042, while a breakthrough of this line will open the way to achieving a following support.

 

 

USD / JPY. In anticipation of the US GDP

 

Buyers could benefit from yesterday's positive for the dollar events, which could again inspire optimism to the US economic growth and (for investors it is even more important), of course, increased expectations of markets regards rates hike in the near future. As a FOMC member Lockhart said yesterday during his speech, a strong economy gives grounds to wait for the policy tightening this summer. It is not necessary to write off a technical factor in a form of prices rebound from a 61.8% correctional Fibonacci level of an upward trend of January-March of this year.

 

http://i038.radikal.ru/1503/73/c70372597c2e.png

 

A formal target of reducing (abovementioned Fibo level) was achieved, and now it is recommended to wait the final US GDP data (they are expected today in 14.30 GMT), before putting a stake on the particular scenario.

[Vistabrokers]

GOLD. Goals of Correction are Achieved

 

A gold price has reached a broken at the beginning of this month support line, but this time from the bottom. Another limiting factor for bulls is a nearby 38.2% Fibo level of a total fall in January-March. Here, prior to weekly trading closing investors were taking profits, and after that quotes moved into an area of a formed with a nearest 38.2% Fibo level support. At the same time a reaction on fundamental statistics on Friday was smoothed, causing only a local increase in volatility, and this when the US GDP data were worse than expected (2.2% vs. 2.4%), and the consumer confidence index was better than expected.

 

http://s43.radikal.ru/i099/1503/ae/2f34cb7f8cdd.png

 

It is expected that buyers' activity will increase on drawing near a level of 1190, which means an actual testing of the abovementioned 38.2% Fibonacci correction. It is recommended to open long positions only after a rebound and getting additional signals from trend indicators.

 

 

 

USD / JPY. Bulls Come to Life

 

The final US GDP has confirmed a previous estimate (2.2%), disappointing those who hoped for more positive data. This has a short-term impact on the dynamics of the dollar, which fell directly after the publication. But then trading returned into a stable course and in the end of the week, no one dared to demonstrate a proactive stance. There were too many conflicting factors to take risks. While the market pays more attention to some technical aspects, the most influential of which can be called testing and rebound from a 61.8% Fibo level from an upward trend in January-March.

 

http://s019.radikal.ru/i603/1503/24/d5e5f26ec727.png

 

Correction of a first wave of growth that followed a testing of the abovementioned 61.8% Fibonacci level, gives reason to buy on a breakthrough of a top of this magnitude, corresponding to 119.50. Another barrier for growth and at the same a target level may be a lower limit of an overcome few days ago upward channel in a range of 120.10.

[Vistabrokers]

GOLD. Market is in a Brown Study

 

Correction continued - bears have easily pushed through a first line of bulls' defense, located at a 38.2% Fibonacci correction level of decline started at the beginning of this year and ended in mid-March. At the moment sellers are contained with a 50% correction, but it may fall soon. Today preliminary inflation data for the current month are expected to be published in the euro zone, and it may affect, in particular, on a balance of power in the gold market, if expectations will differ much from the forecast (-0.3% y / y).

 

http://s019.radikal.ru/i631/1503/dd/31a3fc43f2a7.png

 

In this situation, it is not recommended to act actively, since there are no necessary preconditions for purchases yet (no evidence of rebound). It is also premature to sell, since a current wave of reduction has not been turned in a trend.

 

 

EUR / USD. In Anticipation of Inflation Data

 

A situation in this pair is still unstable – from above a development of an upward correction is limited by a resistance line of a long-term downtrend, as well as by a 61.8% correctional Fibo level of a wave of decline in February-March, while from below bears are restrained in the last two weeks by a short-term support line. In the next few hours a Statistical Service of the euro zone is to publish data on consumer price index, which should definitely be reflected in the formation of investor sentiment.

 

http://s013.radikal.ru/i322/1503/da/254a515082a4.png

 

This publication will give reason to enter the market, depending on what it would be like. If the data will be lower than expected -0.3%, it will put pressure on quotes, since it would mean that a volume of the ECB's asset purchase program could potentially be higher than announced 60 billions per month. More positive data will support bulls.

[Vistabrokers]

USD / CAD is at the Crossroads

 

The pair continues to remain close to the rising trend line, which was started in July of the last year, but this, however, does not give grounds to enter the market yet, because there was no sufficient impulse for purchases. Also recall that current levels of support are reinforced with important corrections - 38.2% of the above-mentioned trend, and 61.8% of the USD / CAD growth in January. It should be noted that today in 14.00 GMT in Canada will be published the index of business activity from business school of Richard Ivey (which may affect the dynamics of the pair for the next couple of days), whereas the coming Friday should be determining. This day will be published data on the labor market in the United States and Canada.

 

http://s020.radikal.ru/i707/1505/d3/94b057d5637d.png

 

It is recommended to wait for today's data, and if it will be negative, to open long positions with a stop at 1.1940 - the lowest since January 19 and the top of the two-month wave of decline.

 

 

 

 

 

EUR / USD Resumes Growth

 

After testing a 38.2% Fibonacci correctional level of the wave of growth in the last decade of April, the pair resumed its climb. Prior to the US labor market data, expected on Friday, investors tend to fix results of their long positions that continues to push the greenback down.

 

http://s016.radikal.ru/i335/1505/ab/3f833454df44.png

 

It seems that in coming hours euro buyers will be ready to storm the nearest local maximum (1.1289), with the target of 1.1530, corresponding to the bottom level of the declining wave in February and March. However, before the release of Friday's employment data in the United States, it is recommended not to open large positions.

[Vistabrokers]

AUD / USD Fills Cramped in Triangle Boundaries

 

Today's data on employment in Australia brought mixed feelings to investors, because, on the one hand, in April, the number of employees reduced (!), while the March data were revised with a significantly increase. In the context of the recent RBA interest rate cut and expectations of market players regards further steps of the central bank, any important statistics will influence AUD / USD. Thus, the primary response to the publication, which lasted just a minute, was the fall of the AUD against the dollar by about 30 points, but then bulls quickly took the wheel. Currently quotes are again close to the upper boundary of the graphic figure "expanding triangle", going beyond which will give an important advantage to this or that side.

 

http://s008.radikal.ru/i304/1505/44/d08e91b7936a.png

 

In our case, AUD / USD consolidation above the reached in April three-month high (0.8075) will mean the opportunity to open long positions. The target of purchases will be the beginning of the descending wave on January 15 at 0.8295.

 

 

 

USD / JPY Goes back to Mid-Range

 

The dollar did not have enough momentum to hold above the upper boundary of the "triangle", which caused sales, and now the pair is in the middle of the way to the bottom of this pattern. Sentiment changing that occurred during yesterday's trading, was supported with the negative data on the US employment from ADP, which casted a shadow on prospects of getting strong official data from the Labour Department on Friday.

 

http://s52.radikal.ru/i135/1505/04/3e6100ad7349.png

 

Anyway, before the release of tomorrow's employment data we should not expect a directional movement, while after the release the best tactic will be to work for a breakthrough of next support (currently it is at 118.47) and resistance levels (120.50).

[Vistabrokers]

GBP / USD is Back in the Game

 

After relatively moderate fluctuations observed since the beginning of this week the British currency has sharply reacted to the exit polls results publication, according to which the Conservative Party confidently wins the elections to the House of Commons of the British Parliament. The market reaction was probably caused with the fact that, given the wide margin (316 seats against 239 seats for the Labour Party), it will be not so hard to make decisions for parliamentarians, as the market had expected earlier, given the almost equal chances before the elections. At this time, the pair is at 1.55 (2-months maximum) where it has appeared at night - the growth is estimated more than two and a half figures.

 

http://s020.radikal.ru/i705/1505/a2/56f726c3f366.png

 

At the same time, bulls, apparently, will be unable to storm the aforementioned level before the publication of official results later today, as well as prior to the data on the US labor market, which is expected during the US session (12.30 GMT). From a technical standpoint, trading goes in the uptrend, but given the strong news background, it is recommended to fix the result of current positions.

 

 

 

 

EUR / USD Consolidates near Support Line

 

The single currency is reducing prior to the expected today employment data release in the United States, having reached the line of the trend support from the beginning of April 23rd.

 

http://s020.radikal.ru/i701/1505/dc/a5ab6e17d997.png

 

 

It is recommended to fix current results on open positions before the the said statistics on the labor market release. It is expected that the number of employees will show the increase by 226 thousand, and, depending on which way and how much the real value differs, the market will be ready to resume growth or go into a steep dive.

[Vistabrokers]

GBP / USD. Semi-Annual Highs are More to Come

 

The "cable" continues its triumphant ascension, taking full advantage from positive macroeconomic indicators in the UK, as well as ignoring (as often happens in such cases), not very positive data. For example, the consumer price index was lower than forecast, but wages growth was above expectations of relevant experts, and it allows to expect the inflation acceleration. The past FOMC meeting has also played its role, as well the Fed's head Yellen comments, which were somewhat more restrained than the market had expected, giving GBP / USD bulls one more reason to build on their success. Currently quotes have reached the 50% correction of the entire downward trend from July 2014 to April 2015, which imposes certain restrictions on the bulls' activity.

 

http://s017.radikal.ru/i431/1506/f4/7d69a21253e1.png

 

At the same time, trading is still held within the upward channel boundaries and only their overrunning beyond these boundaries will give reason to take profit on current long positions. Thus, it is recommended to use any intermediate correction to the line of support to increase the volume of purchases, and, of course, to enter on the breakthrough of the current extremum.

 

Volatility: 92%

Trend: bullish

Fundamental background: weak

 

GOLD is Highly Prized Again

 

Bulls on gold have used a situation with a false support level breakthrough (1170) and took quotes to the middle of the last few months trading range, in the area of $ 1,200 per troy ounce. Given the decline in world stock indices, it is likely that some part of funds from risky assets will be taken into the safe-haven asset (and given the current price dynamics, it is already happening).

 

http://s017.radikal.ru/i428/1506/e2/8c1cfd4bc74d.png

 

In current conditions it is possible to consider purchases, based on achievement of the said trading range upper boundary - 1225. We should note that here is the 50% correction level from the decline in January - March of this year.

 

Volatility: 62%

Trend: bullish

Fundamental background: weak

[Vistabrokers]

Market Outlook According to the Method of Bill Williams: GOLD

 

A purchase from 1189.21 will soon be closed, and apparently, we should re-look for the entrance mark. In any case, judging by where is the opening price and by current price dynamics, the relevant position will be profitable for us.

 

http://www.hostpic.org/images/1506221746270084.png

 

Volatility: 60%

Trend: sideways

Fundamental background: weak

 

Market Outlook According to the Method of Bill Williams: USD/JPY

 

On the current bar we have a breakthrough of the fractal up, which means overcoming of the order to buy (123.21) that was placed here earlier. Note that earlier bears have attempted to work for a breakthrough of the next support level three times, but to no avail, which may, in turn, give additional impetus to growth. In any case, it is recommended to closely monitor the current dynamics of the pair, executing each and every System signal.

 

http://www.hostpic.org/images/1506221746550091.png

 

Volatility: 38%

Trend: sideways

Fundamental background: weak

 

Market Outlook According to the Method of Bill Williams: EUR/USD

 

Currently we are out of the market and ready to open a new position on a breakthrough of one of oppositely directed fractals, which are on both sides of Alligator's teeth (the red line). Thus, we will buy on a breakthrough of 1.1435 and sell from 1.1287, depending on the further scenario.

 

http://www.hostpic.org/images/1506221747180096.png

 

Volatility: 68%

Trend: sideways

Fundamental background: weak

 

Market Outlook According to the Method of Bill Williams: GBP/USD

 

The long position may be closed soon (if the current bar closes under the red Alligator line). It should not go without mention that the uncertainty of buyers was caused with the fact that the price has reached the important support line – 50% correction of the whole «cable» decline in the period from July 2014 to April 2015.

 

http://www.hostpic.org/images/1506221747370093.png

 

Volatility: 88%

Trend: bullish

Fundamental background: weak

[Vistabrokers]

USD / JPY. Bulls or Bears?

 

http://www.hostpic.org/images/1506231325010096.png

 

Once again, rebounding from a 50% correction of an upward momentum in May-June, bulls have reached an upper boundary of formed during the said growth correction graphic figure "triangle". Why this figure is so good? At least because when we work on a breakthrough of its graphical boundaries, risks are relatively low, but the movement potential can be very serious. Today's data from the United States (12.30 GMT), which will have to witness the current situation with durable goods sales, are quite capable to give an appropriate impetus to the pair.

 

It is recommended to open the order to buy if the daily price will close above the nearest resistance level 124.45, or in the case of support level 122.43 overcoming.

 

Volatility: 41%

Trend: sideways

Fundamental background: strong

 

EUR / USD. It Will be a Movement after Consolidation

 

http://www.hostpic.org/images/1506231325190101.png

 

The next Greek epic saga comes to an end, so in the near future may happen a radical change in the EUR / USD technical picture. In recent weeks quotes (largely due to expectations of solving the situation in Greece) are consolidated within a narrow trading range, but time passes, and the market's reaction in the case of Grexit may be unpredictable.

 

At this point, bears are making an attempt to break the support line, and if they succeed and consolidate below it, the downward movement will gain momentum and the nearest target may be 1.1050. It is likely that today the data on the current level of business activity in the euro zone and its countries will contribute to it.

 

Volatility: 63%

Trend: sideways

Fundamental background: strong

[Vistabrokers]

USD/JPY. Bulls Try Strength of Triangle Upper Limit

 

The pair has moved a little above the upper limit of the triangle graphic figure, that we had mentioned in the last review. Meanwhile, given the fact, that today during the American trading session the USA will published the final GDP data for the Q1 (we should not also forget about today's Eurogroup meeting on Greece), this movement does not have essential fundamental reasons. Bulls should overcome the nearest support level 124.45 to feel themselves more confident.

 

http://www.hostpic.org/images/1506241428260087.png

 

It is recommended to wait for today's expected events before acting. Given the technical picture, the above-mentioned support level breakthrough with a high possibility will give the growth an additional momentum, and we should definitely use this.

 

Volatility 55%

Trend: sideways

Fundamental background: strong

 

 

EUR/USD. In Wait for Miracle

 

We should mention at once, that during today's meeting of the euro zone finance ministers a Greek question must be decided. Yesterday there were some signals that the deal would be finally made, but we should wait a little more before making conclusions. Meanwhile, investors have started to fix their long positions amid the uncertainty. This has reflected on quotes yesterday when the support line, that was holding sellers the whole last month, was passed.

 

http://www.hostpic.org/images/1506241428510089.png

 

It is recommended to hold short positions with a target of 1.1050, as we have said in the last review. Thus, it is important to take into account the element of surprise regards the decision on Greece, and be ready for any eventuality. Now, we can move the protective stop-order to the area of the opening price.

 

Volatility: 54%

Trend: bearish

Fundamental background: strong

[Vistabrokers]

Market Outlook According to the Method of Bill Williams: GOLD

 

The order to sale has activated after the price had passed a fractal down at 1181.87. Among additional signals we have «2 red bars below zero» on АС, as well as «red zone» signals. Recall that we must add volume to a position only when the price passes a minimal value (for sales) of a signal bar.

 

http://www.hostpic.org/images/1506241710160083.png

 

Volatility: 46%

Trend: bearish

Fundamental background: moderate

 

 

Market Outlook According to the Method of Bill Williams: USD/JPY

 

Despite a lack of important changes in USD/JPY during the last 24 hours, the long position is still relevant. The red Alligator line value has moved to a zero risk area, while there was no additional signals yet. Today the market is looking for the important final GDP data in the USA (Q1), that is why it is recommended to be ready to react on all new System signals.

 

http://www.hostpic.org/images/1506241710330088.png

 

Volatility: 50%

Trend: bullish

Fundamental background: moderate

 

 

Market Outlook According to the Method of Bill Williams: EUR/USD

 

We continue to hold our short position from 1.1310. The situation around talks on Greece is heating up, so in the market is growing uncertainty, a constant companion of which is a volatility increase. The value of the Alligator's teeth has moved to the level of 1.1299, while there was no additional signals to sale.

 

http://www.hostpic.org/images/1506241710510084.png

 

Volatility: 53%

Trend: bearish

Fundamental background: moderate

 

 

Market Outlook According to the Method of Bill Williams: GBP/USD

 

The market situation has not fundamentally changed – an order to sale from 1.5803 is still relevant. The market is waiting for today's US final GDP data.

 

http://www.hostpic.org/images/1506241711050091.png

 

Volatility: 76%

Trend: bearish

Fundamental background: moderate

[Vistabrokers]

GBP/USD Reached the First Correction Target

 

After the pair has reached its maximal for the last seven months values (by the way, a peak of the «cable» growth was at the level of 50% correction from a downtrend lasted from July 2014 till April 2015) has started a correction, which currently continues. The size of this correction is now close to a value of 38.2% Fibonacci retracement from the June GBP / USD growth. There are no essential fundamental reasons for decline, as the recent statistics regards the British economy, as well as the US one was near predicted values.

 

http://www.hostpic.org/images/1506251242260069.png

 

It is recommended to wait for signals from trend indicators, before opening long positions. Meanwhile, it could not be excluded that the correction will continue to the next level – 50% (1.5560), 61.8% (1.5470), but this scenario is connected with high risks.

 

Volatility: 65%

Trend: bullish

Fundamental background: moderate

 

GOLD Remains within Range

 

Gold price sinuous line, apparently, is very close to reflect changes in sentiment in financial markets related to the situation around Greece. At the same time, despite the fact that all possible terms when the saving tranche may be obtained, separating the country from defaulting almost expired, the market is not ready to make a false start. Yesterday quotes have once again tested the lower boundary of the last few months trading range, but could not overcome it again.

 

http://www.hostpic.org/images/1506251242550077.png

 

Given the current technical picture, it is recommended to buy with a protective stop slightly below yesterday's low with a target of 1220 - the upper border of the range.

 

Volatility: 40%

Trend: sideways

Fundamental background: moderate

[Vistabrokers]

Market Outlook According to the Method of Bill Williams: GOLD

 

We continue to hold the short position from 1181.87. In general the market is calm, and it allows us to gradually move the stop-trade after the price on the red Alligator line level (current value is 1180.88). We have only one additional signal from the «red zone». According to the classical technical analysis, prices have reached the support level, a breakthrough of which would be beneficial for us.

 

http://www.hostpic.org/images/1506252056570092.png

 

Volatility: 38%

Trend: bearish

Fundamental background: moderate

 

 

Market Outlook According to the Method of Bill Williams: USD/JPY

 

The uptrend has been placed with the correction, and our long position was closed with the bar closure below the red Alligator line. Currently we are out of the market. We have placed pending breakthrough orders at the nearest fractals levels on both sides of Alligator's teeth.

 

http://www.hostpic.org/images/1506252057150092.png

 

Volatility: 56%

Trend: sideways

Fundamental background: moderate

 

 

Market Outlook According to the Method of Bill Williams: EUR/USD

 

The market is frozen – nobody wants to predict the result of the situation with Greece amid those conflicting rumors that appear in news line. Meanwhile, the order to sale from 1.1310 is still in the market. We have a signal to add volume «3 red bars above zero» on АС.

 

http://www.hostpic.org/images/1506252057320097.png

 

Volatility: 44%

Trend: bearish

Fundamental background: moderate

 

 

Market Outlook According to the Method of Bill Williams: GBP/USD

 

We continue to hold a short position from 1.5803. Despite rather calm recent trading, we have additional signals from a «red zone», a «saucer» on АО, as well as «2 red bars below zero» on АС.

 

http://www.hostpic.org/images/1506252057500089.png

 

Volatility: 63%

Trend: bearish

Fundamental background: moderate

[Vistabrokers]

USD / JPY. Thinking about Causes and Effects

 

Launched breakthrough of the "triangle" upper border went nowhere - market players continue to be cautious, and they really have reasons for it. It so happened that not only and not so much Greeks are interested in the situation in their country, as investors around the world who are used to keep money in a quiet location on the occurrence of such severe cases like this. The yen, together with gold and all sorts of "risk-free" government bonds (we think that there are no such bonds, but so they say) has traditionally been used as one of these safe-havens. So, we wait... Recall that tonight was published the inflation data for Japan (perhaps this is the key data regards the country in recent years) - value was above expectations. What does it mean? Most likely, that the fight against deflation give some results, which means it is unlikely that the Bank of Japan in the near future will think about the expansion of the asset repurchase program, which has driven the yen on thirteen-year lows. And it seems that this is not what Japanese officials want.

 

We do not recommend to enter the market today, waiting for fundamental changes.

 

http://www.hostpic.org/images/1506261227240096.png

 

Volatility 61%

Trend: sideways

Fundamental background: moderate

 

GBP / USD. Market Players Sat on Fence

 

The British seems to have found some support near the support line and the 38.2% Fibo level of the upward momentum in June. Today, we do not expect any important publications, which means that the trend will continue rather than change its direction.

*

Anyway, it is advisable to be careful when trying to buy from current levels - in any case the protective stop should be placed close.

 

http://www.hostpic.org/images/1506261227510086.png

 

Volatility: 65%

Trend: sideways

Fundamental background: moderate

[Vistabrokers]

Market Outlook According to the Method of Bill Williams: GOLD

 

A market fluctuations amplitude continues to decline, but this is not a reason to relax, because at any time we may reach some data (for example, regards Greece), which will force market participants to activate sharply. In the meantime, we have the conditional stop-order at 1178.07 - the current value of the red Alligator line.

 

http://www.hostpic.org/images/1506261811430096.png

 

Volatility: 28%

Trend: bearish

Fundamental background: moderate

 

 

Market Outlook According to the Method of Bill Williams: USD/JPY

 

After the nearest fractal down level crossing the pending order to sale from 123.28 has activated. Thus, the decline does not have the continuation yet, and we have no additional signals. Anyway, we are prepared to act, because the current price is close to Alligator's teeth, so the position may be closed soon.

 

http://www.hostpic.org/images/1506261812060079.png

 

Volatility: 60%

Trend: sideways

Fundamental background: moderate

 

 

Market Outlook According to the Method of Bill Williams: EUR/USD

 

The EUR/USD market remains calm. The position to sale is still relevant, despite of the red Alligator's line closure, closing above which would be a signal to leave the market. During the last 24 hours there was no additional signals.

 

http://www.hostpic.org/images/1506261812200087.png

 

Volatility: 38%

Trend: bearish

Fundamental background: moderate

 

 

Market Outlook According to the Method of Bill Williams: GBP/USD

 

We have fixed a result on the short position from 1.5803 with a small profit at 1.5742. The range of fluctuations is currently limited with levels of the nearest fractals (where we have our breakthrough orders). The distance between them is near a figure, and it is not too much, due to the last months increased volatility level.

 

http://www.hostpic.org/images/1506261812350095.png

 

Volatility: 66%

Trend: bearish

Fundamental background: moderate

[Vistabrokers]

GBP / USD. Bears Get Advantage prior to US Labor Market Data

 

Bulls, who were keeping a sufficiently important support level for several days (38.2% Fibonacci retracement from the "cable" growth in June), have finally retreated in the face of fundamental factors. Thus, according to Markit, the manufacturing PMI in the UK was the lowest since April 2013, while the Bank of England financial stability report paid attention to risks associated with the possible default of Greece regards financial markets. Thus, the Old Lady has even announced about a joint plan of the Ministry of Finance and the European authorities on any emergency. Amid this we have a breakthrough of local lows, which means the continuation of a downward correction started from June 18.

 

http://www.hostpic.org/images/1507021703520092.png

 

Today, the Ministry of Labour will report regarding the US employment situation, which traditionally would have a huge impact on the balance of power in the market. Given the current technical picture, it is recommended to place a pending breakthrough order at yesterday's lows with the target of 1.5560 (50% retracement of the aforementioned upward wave) and then 61.8% (1.5470).

 

Volatility: 46%

Trend: bearish

Fundamental background: strong

 

GOLD. Readiness for Action №1

 

It seems that sellers are willing to storm the nearest support level of 1162 (the lowest level since March 20), which attracts attention, given the expected today statisticson employment in the US agricultural sector. Now the market feels enormous pressure, given the situation with Greece in the context of the upcoming referendum and the fate of the country in the context of membership in the euro zone. It is also a very high degree of investor expectations of arguments in favor of a scenario in relation to the date of the beginning of the Fed rate hike cycle. This gives reason to expect in the near future a sharp rise in volatility and strong market movements, which can be used by traders in the gold market, traditionally sensitive to investors' sentiment towards risk changing.

 

http://www.hostpic.org/images/1507021705470093.png

 

It is recommended to enter a short position on a breakthough of 1162 with a target of 1142 (low since December 2014), to be prepared to respond quickly to the situation during the American trading session.

 

Volatility: 26%

Trend: sideways

Fundamental background: strong

[Vistabrokers]

Market Outlook According to the Method of Bill Williams: GOLD

 

We continue to hold the short position opened on a breakthrough of the fractal down level (1173.59). Among additional signals we have a «saucer» on АО and «2 red bars below zero» on АС. A technical picture in gold is characterized with buyers' attempts to overcome a support level, which has already caused a downward movement acceleration.

 

http://www.hostpic.org/images/1507021837070098.png

 

Volatility: 25%

Trend: bearish

Fundamental background: strong

 

Market Outlook According to the Method of Bill Williams: USD/JPY

 

Currently we are out of the market, and it is the best position prior to later expected US labor market data (during the American session). The nearest order to buy is at 123.99, to sale – at 121.94.

 

http://www.hostpic.org/images/1507021837300092.png

 

Volatility: 65%

Trend: sideways

Fundamental background: strong

 

Market Outlook According to the Method of Bill Williams: EUR/USD

 

The order to sale from 1.1110 has activated. Among additional signals we have some from a «red zone» as well as «2 red bars below zero» on АС. The situation with Greece keeps market participants in tension, that is why we should closely monitor the situation all the time and be prepare to respond System signals.

 

http://www.hostpic.org/images/1507021837420083.png

 

Volatility: 38%

Trend: bearish

Fundamental background: strong

 

Market Outlook According to the Method of Bill Williams: GBP/USD

 

We have entered to sale from 1.5671. During the last 24 hours there were some «red zone» signals, and we should certainly use them to increase a potential profit on the position. Also we should not forget about the US labor market data (high volatility) and tomorrow's Independence Day in the USA (low liquidity).

 

http://www.hostpic.org/images/1507021837570083.png

 

Volatility: 44%

Trend: bearish

Fundamental background: strong

[Vistabrokers]

GBP / USD. US Data Keep Investors Honest

 

Long-awaited data on employment in the United States, contrary to expectations, did not make any visible change in the balance of market forces. However, this is more due to the today's holiday (in the United States is celebrated Independence Day), and that the main reaction (based on the published statistics, it is not in a favor of the US currency) should be the next week. So, we have an achievement of a 50% correction in GBP / USD from the upward impulse in June, as well as the proximity of the support line of a higher temporal scale, which currently connects the April and the June local lows.

http://www.hostpic.org/images/1507031319480087.png

 

It is recommended to wait for a rebound from current levels (it is desirable to confirm it with trend indicators) before you consider cautious buying in the range of the resistance line of the current short-term downtrend. It is likely, that some movements we will see today, because in 08.30 GMT Markit will publish the level of business activity in the UK services sector.

 

Volatility: 38%

Trend: bearish

Fundamental background: moderate

USD / CAD bounces from the line of resistance

 

Looney in recent days has lost ground against the US dollar, the strength of which, in turn, was derived from expectations of the Federal Reserve interest rate hike (then the US would become the first who tightens the monetary policy among developed economies). Another factor that continues to put pressure on the Canadian economy (and with it on the national currency) remain low oil prices - a key export item of the country. On the other hand, we have at the moment the achievement of the upward trend channel line of the last couple of weeks, and at the same time the growth of pessimism in relation to the US dollar after yesterday's relatively weak employment data in the country.

http://www.hostpic.org/images/1507031320340094.png

 

The current situation suggests a corrective USD / CAD downward movement (that we can use) to the range of the support line of the above-mentioned short-term ascending channel with possible subsequent resumption of growth.

 

Volatility: 74%

Trend: sideways

Fundamental background: weak

[Vistabrokers]

Market Outlook According to the Method of Bill Williams: GOLD

 

Today markets are calm and quiet after yesterday's short-term shake caused by the US labor market data. Thus, currently we see the rebound from earlier reached lows, and the red Alligator's line is close. Recall that closure above it will tell us to fix the result on the current position to sale from 1173.59.

 

http://www.hostpic.org/images/1507031744050079.png

 

Volatility: 19%

Trend: bearish

Fundamental background: weak

 

Market Outlook According to the Method of Bill Williams: USD/JPY

 

We have moved the order to buy to the new fractal up level, at 121.94. Given the fact that today the United States (and many market participants) celebrate Independence Day. So, the position will unlikely open soon, if only the new, more relevant fractal appears closer to the price.

 

http://www.hostpic.org/images/1507031744570081.png

 

Volatility: 61%

Trend: sideways

Fundamental background: weak

 

Market Outlook According to the Method of Bill Williams: EUR/USD

 

The short position from 1.1110 will soon be closed on a classical red Alligator's line crossing. During the last 24 hours there were no additional sales signals.

 

http://www.hostpic.org/images/1507031745470084.png

 

Volatility: 42%

Trend: bearish

Fundamental background: weak

 

Market Outlook According to the Method of Bill Williams: GBP/USD

 

We continue to hold the short position from 1.5671, despite of the significant rebound from levels reached during the recent days downward movement. Currently we should be ready to fix the result on the position if the upward retracement will continue.

 

http://www.hostpic.org/images/1507031746310088.png

 

Volatility: 39%

Trend: bearish

Fundamental background: strong

[Vistabrokers]

EUR / USD. Never a Moment's Peace

 

The US employment data published on Thursday (rescheduled due to the celebration of Independence Day) together with the market's reaction on the results of the plebiscite in Greece (the people spoke against the agreement with creditors on current conditions) continue to influence the dynamics of the market. As a result, it is very difficult to work, because the reaction of remaining market players in response to certain statements of political leaders (on the bailout program for Greece) clearly can not be taken as a basis for trading decisions. Thus, if the consideration of the agreement will be delayed again, it is expected that the market's attention to this topic will reduce. As a consequence of the continued uncertainty quotes are currently moving in the framework of a tapering price channel, that we may call by stretching a point a "symmetrical triangle".

 

http://www.hostpic.org/images/1507061310340091.png

 

At this stage, it is recommended to focus on macro-economic indicators, with a corresponding reaction to a probable break of the "triangle" boundaries. Alternatively, if range trading continues, we should use oscillators to detect conditional overbought and oversold zones.

 

Volatility: 44%

Trend: sideways

Fundamental background: moderate

 

USD / JPY. Investors Are Interested in Safe-Haven Assets

 

Today, after release of the information about the Greek people will, bears made an attempt to overcome the lower boundary of the graphic figure "triangle". The Japanese currency is traditionally considered as a safe-haven asset more than the US one, which leads to significant price fluctuations, even when the market receives the news, that at first glance, has no relevance to it. However, quotes have already returned to the above-mentioned pattern borders, and now we see some preconditions for the development of an upward movement.

 

http://www.hostpic.org/images/1507061311240099.png

 

Today, it is recommended to stay out of the market, waiting for the stabilization of the situation or the real exit of quotes beyond the "triangle."

 

Volatility: 67%

Trend: sideways

Fundamental background: moderate

[Vistabrokers]

Market Outlook According to the Method of Bill Williams: GOLD

 

We have closed the short position from 1173.59 on a signal of the red Alligator's line crossing (1173.22), that is almost the opening price. Soon we have opened a new position to sale from 1165.87, which is currently relevant. Recall that after a referendum in Greece, as a result of which requirements of creditors were rejected, it was a price gap up. Thus, it has closed soon, so the total uncertainty remains.

 

http://www.hostpic.org/images/1507061816220098.png

 

Volatility: 7%

Trend: bearish

Fundamental background: weak

 

Market Outlook According to the Method of Bill Williams: USD/JPY

 

The order to sale from 122.59 has activated. Meanwhile, the market is still burning in fever because of Greece, which causes unpredictable price fluctuations. Thus, after a spurt down at the opening of trades quotes have returned to initial levels and even higher, which means that we should closely monitor the position to fix the result at the right time.

 

http://www.hostpic.org/images/1507061817050085.png

 

Volatility: 67%

Trend: sideways

Fundamental background: weak

 

Market Outlook According to the Method of Bill Williams: EUR/USD

 

We have fixed a formally profit on the short position from 1.1110 at the level of on of the bars' closure above the red Alligator's line. After today's morning fluctuations we have started to sale again, but the result of this position is close to zero yet. It seems that the market is waiting for the reaction of European senior ranks on Greek referendum results. We should be prepared to sharp volatility leaps.

 

http://www.hostpic.org/images/1507061817360096.png

 

Volatility: 44%

Trend: bearish

Fundamental background: moderate

 

Market Outlook According to the Method of Bill Williams: GBP/USD

 

The position to sale from 1.5671 is still relevant, because after a short-time two-step dance the upward movement has continued. We have red zone signals as well as signals from indicators (АО – «saucer», АС – «3 red bars below zero», «zero crossing») to add volume to the position. The value of the red Alligator's line is below 1.5620, which gives us reasons to expect a positive result from this position.

 

http://www.hostpic.org/images/1507061818070103.png

 

Volatility: 32%

Trend: bearish

Fundamental background: moderate

[Vistabrokers]

EUR / USD. Apocalypse Was Cancelled!?..

 

http://www.hostpic.org/images/1507071311200092.png

 

We should definitely mention a kind of immunity that markets had to develop over the endless Greek tragedy. Thus, earlier market experts were expounding various apocalyptic scenarios about the collapse of the synthetic formation called "the euro zone" in a case of Greek default, but now forecasts have become much more modest, given that the market has remained fairly stable after Sunday's referendum and earlier (when Greece has missed the payment to IMF). One of the key technical analysis postulates states that "prices take everything into account", which means that all projections and assumptions are already accounted in current prices. Earlier we have mentioned the formation of the graphic figure like "symmetrical triangle", where were converging graphic borders. So, if the price leaves its borders, it will give us the reason to open a position in the direction of the breakthrough, and it is meaningless to talk about "to be or not to be". Any trade action will not be justified until the market itself shows the direction.

 

It is recommended to focus on "triangle" borders and use their breakthrough as a signal to enter the market in the direction of the breakthrough.

 

Volatility: 47%

Trend: sideways

Fundamental background: moderate

 

GBP / USD Sees how the Land Lies

 

http://www.hostpic.org/images/1507071313100087.png

 

The British currency could catch hold of the important support line, thereby interrupting a decline in borders of a short-term downward correction. Here, according to the first rebound, bulls are going to resume the interrupted trend, using current technical opportunities, and not just them, because today is also expected a fundamental reason to buy. Thus, at 08.30 GMT in theUK will be published May industrial production data, which in case of predicted values exceeding may act as a catalyst of growth.

 

It is recommended to go long ion a breakthrough of 1.5631 to reach the resistance line of the current downtrend. A break of this line will open GBP / USD the way to June highs above 1.59.

 

Volatility: 67%

Trend: bearish

Fundamental background: moderate

[Vistabrokers]

Market Outlook According to the Method of Bill Williams: GOLD

 

We have fixed the result on the short position (from 1165.87) on one of the bar's closure above the red Alligator's line. Currently we are in a «standby mode», and our pending orders are placed at the nearest fractal levels. Thus, we will start to buy at 1174.44 and to sale at 1162.57.

 

http://s017.radikal.ru/i410/1507/de/f602b03718f4.png

 

Volatility: 6%

Trend: sideways

Fundamental background: weak

 

Market Outlook According to the Method of Bill Williams: USD/JPY

 

The short position from 122.59 is still relevant, because no any bar was closed above Alligator's teeth, despite the high market volatility. Among additional signals we have a «saucer» on АO and a «red zone» signal. Recall that the last is formed when histograms on AO and AC are red.

 

http://s017.radikal.ru/i406/1507/6c/11f0faf9f888.png

 

Volatility: 71%

Trend: sideways

Fundamental background: moderate

 

Market Outlook According to the Method of Bill Williams: EUR/USD

 

The market is waiting for results of the unscheduled summit of the euro zone leaders, which was a respond on results of the Sunday's referendum in Greece. Amid this the euro is declining versus its counterparts par to the course and this means the increased unfixed profit on the short position from 1.1031. Among additional signals we should note a «saucer» on АО, as well as «red zone» signals.

 

http://s017.radikal.ru/i418/1507/10/9041bd2da232.png

 

Volatility: 46%

Trend: bearish

Fundamental background: moderate

 

Market Outlook According to the Method of Bill Williams: GBP/USD

 

The data on the manufacturing activity, published in the UK during today's European sessin, was rather contrary. Bulls, who have just started to test the waters of counterattack from the middle-term trend line, gave way. So, the short position from 1.5671 is in the market, and we have moved the stop-trade (the red Alligator line level) to 1.5593 with the current price at 1.5450.

 

http://s017.radikal.ru/i439/1507/47/776e920ddbca.png

 

Volatility: 35%

Trend: bearish

Fundamental background: strong

[Vistabrokers]

Market Outlook According to the Method of Bill Williams: GOLD

 

It is a status-quo in the market again. Earlier there was an activation of the order to sale from and then two days of ineffective attempts of sellers to take the wheel. The position was closed almost at the opening level (the red Alligator's lone crossing). After we have closed this position, we opened the long one on a fractal up breakthrough at 1164.93.

 

http://s019.radikal.ru/i619/1507/aa/b296709b012b.png

 

Volatility: 10%

Trend: sideways

Fundamental background: weak

 

Market Outlook According to the Method of Bill Williams: USD/JPY

 

Yesterday's spurt to the south gave us the reason to relax a little regards our short position from 122.59, despite a current significant rebound from reached highs. Thus, the floating profit on this position is more than the figure, and the red Alligator's line the closure above which will give the signal to enter the market, is now at 122.15.

 

http://s020.radikal.ru/i703/1507/2d/c37e55492ead.png

 

Volatility: 46%

Trend: bearish

Fundamental background: moderate

 

Market Outlook According to the Method of Bill Williams: EUR/USD

 

The position to sale from 1.1031 was closed with a small loss (1.1047) and we should not talk about causes and consequences of such dynamics, bringing a basis under certain market fluctuations. Instead of this we had placed pending orders, one of which has already activated at 1.1091. It was the order to buy (the extremum of the nearest fractal up was crossed). Now we continue to work in accordance with the Williams System by adding volume to the position with respective signals.

 

http://s019.radikal.ru/i613/1507/f7/42587985f68c.png

 

Volatility: 58%

Trend: bullish

Fundamental background: moderate

 

Market Outlook According to the Method of Bill Williams: GBP/USD

 

Dynamics of the "cable" continues to please, as the short position from 1.5671 is still in the market, and its stop-trade is moving lower and lover (currently at 1.5480) following the price. We continue to get additional signals and use them despite the fundamental background (for example, today's Bank of England meeting).

 

http://s020.radikal.ru/i711/1507/12/b2ec270e6f5a.png

 

Volatility: 37%

Trend: bearish

Fundamental background: moderate

[Vistabrokers]

Vista Brokers: European Stock Markets Rise

 

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On Friday, European stock markets rallied. Vista Brokers analysts note that financial market participants are hoping that the "Greek saga" will complete on Sunday with an agreement between Athens and creditors and approval of a new financial bailout program. Although this saga with the negotiations has been going on for months, still remains a chance that the European authorities will not allow the bankruptcy of Greece and its exit from the euro zone.

 

Amid optimistic expectations in early hours of the European trading session, the EURO STOXX 50 has risen by 2.60%, the French CAC 40 – by 2.57% and the German DAX 30 - by 2.27%.

 

So, the decision on Greece must be taken on a Sunday, at the unscheduled summit of European Union higher ranks. Athens are walking the razor's edge - if the agreement with creditors is not reached, the country will face in the first place, the collapse of the banking system. All banks in the country are closed for nearly two weeks and without liquidity from the ECB it is not understandable how they open. ATMs can give no more than 60 euros per day.

 

Nevertheless, the Greeks, led by Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras and the new Minister of Finance Euclid Tsakalotos defenses and keep going just to make some concessions in the negotiations. So, late in the evening on Thursday, Athens have offered creditors a new reform plan, which includes painful budget cuts and tax increases. In return, Greece expects to receive from the "troika" 50 billion euros over the next three years.

 

Today's increase in European stocks, was primarily caused with the financial sectorrally. For example, shares of French lenders Societe Generale and BNP Paribas climbed 3.38% and 3.51%, and securities of Deutsche Bank and Commerzbank - by 3.39% and 2.93%. On the periphery the Italian Intesa Sanpaolo and Unicredit rose by 3.74% and 3.78%, while Spanish BBVA and Banco Santander - by 2.52% and 2.99%.