Market Analysis by Vistabrokers

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Vista Brokers: Dollar Corrects after Friday's Rally

 

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On Friday, the strong data on US labor market caused the dollar's rally against its major competitors. Of course, the growth could not last forever, so on Monday, the EUR/USD is slowly recovering. The market's focus shifted back to Greece, which confirmed its rejection of an international bailout program.

 

Vista Brokers analysts note that the dollar index today fell against a basket of currencies by 0.2% to 94,535. The euro has lost about 1.5% on Friday and today rose by 0.2% to $ 1.1338. The USD/JPY after the abor market data publication has refreshed its one-month high at around 119.23 and on Monday the pair lost 0.3% and dropped to 118.75 yen. To one-month-high at 1.965% on Friday has jumped the yield on 10-year US "treasuries", which today fell to 1.922%.

 

Recall that Friday's data showed a rebound in U.S. wages and nonfarm payrolls increasing by 257,000 in January, outstripping forecasts. This reinforced investors' hopes that the Fed will raise rates as early as June of this year.

 

Having taken a lead from this information in full, the market returned to the painful "Greek question." On Sunday, Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras said that Athens will not ask for extension of the financial aid program, which expires on February 28, despite the pressure from international lenders.

 

He also reiterated his plans to rebuild the Greek economy, which run counter to the austerity program recommended by the ECB, the EU and the IMF. Tsipras promises to raise the minimum wage, to suspend the privatization, to create new jobs.

 

At this stage, the new Greek government talks with creditors do not inspire confidence in the successful resolution of the situation. The market was hoping that not having achieved concessions from lenders, Athens will soft its rhetoric and offer a compromise solution, but Tsipras shows a willingness to stay the course.

 

On Wednesday, Greek Finance Minister Janis Varufakis will speak at an emergency meeting of eurozone finance ministers and will submit proposal for the restructuring of Greek debt. So far, all the proposals of Greece international lenders reject, however today the market is set positive - many believe that as a result of the negotiations Greece will be able to reach a compromise with its lenders.

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Vista Brokers: Aussie Continues to Lose Ground

 

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On Monday, the Australian dollar declines against the US one after Friday's strong data on the US labor market, as well as the latest statistics from China. Vista Brokers analysts note that on Sunday in China was published the weak data on the trade balance, import and export. Particularly, in January the volume of import decreased by 19.9%. Exports also fell by 3.3% against the expected growth of 5.8%. Data weighed on commodity currencies and the Asian stock market.

 

According to analysts, the outlook for the Australian dollar in the long term is now being reconsidered. So, the National Australia Bank lowered its forecast for Aussie at the end of 2015 to $ 0.7400 from $ 0.7800. However, experts consider a scenario in which the currency will fall below $ 0.7000.

 

NAB also expects at least one more rate cut by the Reserve Bank of Australia this year. RBA Governor Glenn Stevens, speaking on the presentation of the Bank of China in Sydney, preferred to avoid the issue of monetary policy, without giving the market new reasons for excitement.

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Market Pulse 10.02

 

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On Tuesday G20 meetings continues in Turkey. Australia has already published the NAB business confidence data, and China - the consumer price index. Britain and France today will report on changes in the volume of industrial production in December.

 

7:45 ** Industrial Production - December (France)

 

Moderate impact on the market (EUR). Often, the production is a small contribution to GDP, but it allows to predict the dynamics of interest rates. In France, analysts expect a small growth of the rate.

 

9:30 *** Industrial Production - December (UK)

9:30 ** Manufacturing Production - December (UK)

 

Strong impact on the market (GPB). Growth or exceeded forecasts support the pound. In December, analysts expect a slight growth of both indices.

 

13:20 ** FOMC Member Jeffrey Lacker Speaks - February (USA)

 

Moderate impact on the market (USD). Lacker is a voting member of the FOMC, that is, its opinion affects the monetary policy of the Committee, so his comments may cause volatility in the markets.

 

15:00 ** NIESR GDP Estimate - January (UK)

 

Moderate impact on the market (GPB). The indicator is based on preliminary data, but it is often close to the official level of GDP, so the market pays attention to it.

 

15:00 ** JOLTs Job Openings - December (US)

 

Moderate impact on the market (USD). Publication rarely has an impact on the market, but the growth of this indicator reflects an improvement in the labor market situation, showing a high demand for workers.

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Vista Brokers: This Week Key Factors for EUR/USD are Greece and Eurozone GDP

 

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New trading week the single currency began with a slight increase after Friday lost of about 1.5% against the dollar amid positive data on the US labor market. On Monday growth did not last long, and in the middle of the day EUR/USD dropped to the lower limit of its trading range - 1.1310 amid a negativity from Greece.

 

Vista Brokers analysts say that in Greece markets are falling and the banking sector is on the brink of disaster. The S&P has downgraded the sovereign credit rating of Greece to B- from B with a negative outlook. Of course, it sows pessimism among investors, causing them to return to the subject of a Greek exit from the eurozone.

 

According to experts, the "Greek question" will play a big role this week - on Wednesday will be Eurogroup meetings, and on Thursday – the EU Economic Summit, and these events can play a big role in the negotiations. Recall that Athens sought to develop a comprehensive solution to their economic problems, offering international lenders options for restructuring the debt. However, those yet reject all proposals, insisting on extending the program of financial assistance in a tight economy.

 

An important factor for the euro this week will also be data on Eurozone GDP for the 4th quarter, which will be released on Friday. It is expected that the GDP has risen by 0.2%. Before the publication of data analysts Barclays Bank advise to sell the euro/dollar.

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Vista Brokers: Oil Drops Amid IEA Forecasts

 

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On Tuesday, oil prices fall amid predictions of increasing production in the United States and the report of the International Energy Agency. Brent futures for March delivery fell to $ 58.58 per barrel, and WTI futures - to $ 52.97 per barrel.

 

Vista Brokers analysts point out that the International Energy Agency (IEA) forecast has put a pressure on oil prices. According to it the growth in world oil demand in the next 5 years will be only 1.2% per year. It has reminded investors about the problem of weak demand amid oversupply, which in recent months was having a strong pressure on the oil market. IEA expects prices to return above $ 70 a barrel, but it will happen no earlier than in 2020.

 

However, the International Energy Agency attitude to the situation in the market is quite optimistic. In their view, the market has reached its bottom, and now oil may begin to rise, though very restrained pace. The growth rate of oil supply in the world until 2020 will amount to 860 thousand barrels per day, whereas in 2014 the increase was 1.8 million.

 

Recall that since the middle of last week, oil prices grew fast after it became known that the number of people working on the rigs in the United States greatly reduced - to the minimum amount since December 2011. Earlier this week it became known that OPEC raised its forecasts for global demand in 2015 to 92.32 million barrels per day (20 barrels compared with the previous forecast). So on Monday the oil market has also increased.

 

It is also worth noting that Citigroup analysts do not endorse the IEA views that oil prices have reached the bottom, and expect reduction of up to 20 dollars per barrel. Recent price increasing they call a false breakout trend. Experts have lowered their forecasts for 2015 for WTI from $ 55 to $ 46 per barrel and for Brent - from $ 63 to $ 54 per barrel.

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Market Pulse 11.02

 

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On Wednesday, the economic calendar is almost empty, and the only event that can seriously affect the markets is Eurogroup meetings, where some ways to solve the situation in Greece may be identified. In Japan today, the markets do not work, as the country celebrates National Foundation Day. In the United States during the day will be published a number of data on oil reserves, which can affect the commodity markets.

 

15:30 ** Crude Oil Inventories - February (USA)

 

Moderate impact on the market (USD). Changes in the level of crude oil reserves in barrels. This indicator is the benchmark of demand level, as well as a good driver for the oil market.

 

18:01 ** 10-y Bond Auction - February (USA)

 

Moderate impact on the market (USD). US Treasury allocates its debt obligations. 10-year bonds are the reference in terms of reflecting the demand and market sentiment. Decline in yield is positive for the currency.

[Vistabrokers]

Vista Brokers: EUR/USD Continues to Swing

 

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On Tuesday some new facts on Greece negotiations with international creditors became known. Athens offers to save 70% of the current loan program conditions, as well as to attract short-term funding in the amount of 10 billion euros to avoid a credit crunch and buy some time for negotiations.

 

Vista Brokers analysts note that amid this news, European stock markets has recovered. US dollar and US "treasuries" yield got stronger, thanks to the growing investor confidence that the Fed will raise interest rates this year. Major US stock indexes on Tuesday also showed growth.

 

As for the EUR/USD, it has continued to "swing". First fell to $ 1.1275 pressurized with concerned investors, and then went back above $ 1.13 after reports of a new stage of negotiations.

 

Analysts say that today's meeting of the Eurogroup is extremely important event for the market, because some decisions on Greece can be identified, and some comments may be given.

 

"Greek problem" should be resolved in a short time because on February 28 the program of financial aid ends, and on 1 March Athens will be left without help of lenders. The situation in the money market of the country is critical - the yield of Greek bonds on Monday jumped to 21.74%, the highest since July 2014. If yields remain at such a high level the country will not be available to incur debts.

[Vistabrokers]

Vista Brokers: Aussie Ignored Strong Statistics

 

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On Wednesday morning, the Australian dollar rose against the US dollar to 0.7797, but quickly returned to Tuesday's closing level - 0.7770. Vista Brokers analysts point out that the positive statistics published by night, could not give Aussie an impetus to growth, as globally the currency is pressured by lower prices for oil and copper.

 

In particular, it became known that the consumer sentiment index from Wespac and Melbourne Institute rose in February from 93.2 to 100.7, the first time since February 2014 exceeded the level of 100. The volume of mortgage lending in December also rose more than expected and much better than November values. On a monthly basis loans increased by 2.7%, and year over year - by 4.5%. However, analysts believe that the volume of loans has increased, mainly due to speculative investment in real estate.

 

This week, the Australian dollar may have a good "shake". Tomorrow Australia will publish a number of important data on employment and on inflation expectations. Also within the "currency week" the RBA assistant governor Guy Debelle will speak (Wednesday, 22.00 GMT), and the RBA Governor Glenn Stevens will speak in front of a parliamentary committee on regular hearings on monetary policy (Thursday, 22.30 GMT).

 

Tomorrow's stats unlikely to be on the side of the Aussie - analysts expect that in January the unemployment rate in Australia rose from 6.1% to 6.2%, while the number of employees decreased due to cuts in production. According to forecasts of the RBA, unemployment in the country will rise gradually to 6.5% and will remain close to this level of the entire 2016, and only in 2017 will fall to previous levels.

 

It is likely that RBA Governor Glenn Stevens in his speech will give gloomy forecasts for the Australian economy, supporting market expectations of further interest rate cuts.

[ciardim]

thank you very m uch

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Vista Brokers: Greece Remains Suspended

 

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On Wednesday, EUR/USD dropped in anticipation of the Eurogroup meeting and the discussion of the "Greek problem". In general, the pair remained in the range of 1.1270 - 1.1350, being under pressure from the lack of agreement on the restructuring of Greece's debt. Due to the uncertainty US stock markets were falling. Dow Jones and S & P 500 declined late in the evening, and only Nasdaq rose due to Apple shares. Apple has become the first company worth more than $700 billion.

 

Vista Brokers analysts say that on the eve of the Eurogroup press conferenc, the market waited. Traders tried to analyze the expression of the euro zone's "first persons" in order to understand what lies beyond Greece. Eurogroup President Jeroen Deysselblum earlier on Wednesday assured that no decision will be accepted at the meeting. The EU Commissioner, Pierre Moscovici insisted that the place of Greece is in the euro zone, and everybody needs to find a compromise. German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble gave no specific comments, just saying that Athens is only to decide whether it will remain in the program or not.

 

As the market has already laid the absence of a decision by Greece in prices, the EUR / USD remained calm after it became known that the Eurogroup had not marked anything concrete. According Deysselblum, during the meeting were held constructive discussions with the Greek authorities, and some progress has been achieved. However, it is too little to say about the general solution.

 

Analysts remind that negotiations will be continued on the next scheduled meeting of the Eurogroup on February 16. Perhaps, then, some sort of statement will be made.

[Vistabrokers]

Market Pulse 12.02

 

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Today, the economic calendar is saturated with important information. Early in the morning data on the labor market in Australia has already been published. The EU economic summit and the European Council meeting may clarify some points for Greece. Bank of England's inflation report will likely impact on the pound, and weekly data on unemployment claims in the United States - on the dollar.

 

10:00 ** Industrial Production - December (euro zone)

 

Moderate impact on the market (EUR). Growth or exceeding the forecast is often favorable for the currency, but in conditions of increased volatility due to worries about Greece, the market can ignore this data.

 

10:30 *** BOE Governor Mark Carney Speaks - February

10:30 *** BOE Inflation Report - February

10:30 ** BOE Inflation Letter - February

 

Strong impact on the market (GPB). The BOE inflation report and inflation letter will attract a market's attention, because the inflation rate is one of the landmarks of the central bank's monetary policy. Investors await from the Bank of England some hints that interest rates may be raised.

 

12:00 ** ECB President Mario Draghi Speaks - February (euro zone)

 

Moderate impact on the market (EUR). Given that the ECB has recently launched an ambitious program of quantitative easing, nobody expects Draghi hints at new measures of economy stimulation. Thus the head of the European regulator may comment on inflation and economic growth and this, of course, will affect the euro.

 

13:30 *** Retail Sales - January (USA)

13:30 *** Core Retail Sales - January (USA)

13:30 ** Retail Sales Excluding Auto & Gas - January (USA)

13:30 *** Unemployment Claims - February (USA)

13:30 ** Continuing Claims - January (USA)

 

Strong impact on the market (USD). Recently, information on the US labor market is extremely optimistic and some new positive data can provide significant support to the dollar. With regard to the volume of retail sales in January, analysts expect lower indices.

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Vista Brokers: Yen Rises Amid Uncertainty in Greece

 

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During the Asian session on Thursday the yen rose against its major counterparts, supported by demand for risk-free assets. Vista Brokers analysts note that the uncertainty in Greece remains, as at yesterday's Eurogroup meeting was not made any decisions. After six-hour talks euro zone finance ministers pledged to continue the constructive dialogue with representatives of the IMF and the ECB later, so the "Greek problem" still continues to put pressure on markets.

 

Recall that the current loan agreement with Greece ends on February 28, and the new government flatly refuses to renew it, demanding renegotiation of agreement on austerity measures and reforms. The next round of negotiations will be held on February 16.

 

Amid this the euro fell to 136.06 yen from 136.53 on Wednesday and to 1.1309 dollars from 1.1336. The US dollar fell from 120.47 to 120.26 yen. The Australian dollar fell to 90.05 yen from 92.97. An additional pressure on the Aussie had the labor market data, published in the night from Wednesday to Thursday. Thus, the unemployment rate in Australia rose significantly stronger than expected to 6.4% vs. 6.2% (13-year highs). The number of employees was also greatly reduced - by 12.2 thousand instead of the expected 4.7 thousand. It has reinforced investors' expectations of further RBA monetary policy easing.

 

Analysts say that the growth of the Japanese yen against the US dollar was limited by the fact that today the market is expected important US statistics, which can once again confirm the recovery of the US economy. These are retail sales and unemployment claims.

 

Although demand for the yen was caused rather by safe asset searching than positive on Japan, we note that on the eve was published statistics in core machinery orders. In December, these orders increased by 8.3%, well above the 2.3% expected by analysts. Despite the fact that this index is very volatile, it is considered as an indicator of companies' capital investment in Japan, so its growth is favorable.

[Vistabrokers]

Market Pulse 13.02

 

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On Friday, European countries will publish preliminary data on changes in GDP. In the afternoon, the market's attention will draw data on manufacturing sales in Canada and the University of Michigan consumer sentiment index in the United States.

 

7:00 *** Prelim GDP - Q4 (Germany)

9:00 ** Prelim GDP - Q4 (Italy)

10:00 ** Prelim GDP - Q4 (Greece)

10:00 *** Prelim GDP - Q4 (euro zone)

 

Strong impact on the market (EUR). Preliminary GDP data could put pressure on the single currency, as in many countries, as well as in the euro area, growth expected to be very weak. In Italy, analysts expect lower annual rate.

 

10:00 ** Trade Balance - December (euro zone)

 

Moderate impact on the market (EUR). The trade balance is the difference between the value of exported and imported goods. Growth or exceeded forecast is positive for the currency.

 

13:30 *** Manufacturing Sales - December (Canada)

 

Strong impact on the market (CAD). Volumes of industrial supplies in Canada are falling, and it's a bad sign for the national currency. In December, analysts expect a new index drop, this time by 0.9%.

 

13:30 ** Import Prices - January (USA)

 

Moderate impact on the market (USD). Changes in prices of imported goods for the month. May be an early warning sign of inflationary trends change, or their confirmation.

 

15:00 *** Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment - February (USA)

 

Strong impact on the market (USD). Recently, the American statistics often gives pleasant surprises. Possible, the University of Michigan index will also show in February more significant growth than the market expects. In this case, the dollar may receive additional support.

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Vista Brokers: Euro Respites amid Weak US Data

 

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On Thursday, the US dollar was down against the yen and the euro after the release of disappointing US statistics. Vista Brokers analysts note that the data which were much weaker than forecasts indicate that the US economic recovery is not balanced yet. And this, in turn, casts doubt on this year tightening of monetary policy by the Federal Reserve.

 

So, in January retail sales in the US fell by 0.8% vs. expected 0.4%. Excluding auto sales index fell by 0.9% vs. 0.4%, while sales excluding cars and fuel rose by 0.2% vs. 0.4%.

 

In addition, during a week the number of unemployment claims in the United States rose by 25,000 to 304,000, higher than the forecast 290 000. For the dollar it was a serious blow. Immediately after the release of statistics the US currency fell from 119.70 to 119.44 yen. Euro against the dollar rose to 1.1358 dollars from 1.1331 earlier and continued the upward movement.

 

Analysts say that for the euro it is only a temporary break in the long-term downtrend. The fate of Greece is still unresolved and this will put pressure on the single currency as long as this question remains critical. The next round of talks on Greece will be on Monday.

 

It is worth noting another important Thursday's occasion. The Sweden's central bank has unexpectedly introduced negative interest rates on deposits for commercial banks (-0.1%) and announced that it would spend 10 billion Swedish crowns (1 billion euros) to purchase government bonds with maturities of up to 5 years. After that, the Swedish krona fell against the dollar to a minimum since April 2009.

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Vista Brokers: Stock Markets Rise amid Ukraine Ceasefire

 

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On Thursday the US index S & P 500 has reached its highest level this year, and the Nasdaq index has reached its fifteen-year maximum. European indices also showed significant growth. On Friday, the baton continued to Asian markets.

 

Vista Brokers analysts note several factors that contributed to the growth in the stock markets: a ceasefire in Ukraine, reduction in interest rates in Sweden and hope for the "Greek problem" to be solved on Monday. In the first place, it is, of course, a ceasefire, as the situation in the Donbass remains a serious geopolitical risk.

 

The last few days, these factors were the main sources of concern, but yesterday's 17-hour negotiations of the "Norman Quartet" in Minsk ended with the signing of the agreement about ceasefire and exchange of hostages. Greece is still one of the main source of disturbance in the financial markets, but many investors believe that on Monday, at a regular Eurogroup meeting, international creditors will reach an agreement with Athens. Hopes for a successful resolution of conflicts, both military and diplomatic, brought positive sentiment on the stock markets.

 

So, at the end of Thursday Dow Jones industrial average rose by 0.62%, the S & P 500 by 0.96%, the index of high-tech NASDAQ by 1.18%. European stocks also showed good growth. Stoxx Europe 600 rose by 0.75%, DAX added 1,56%, CAC - 1,00%, FTSE - 0,15%, Athex Composite - 6,73%. Today, Asian markets rose after the European ones. The MSCI index of Asia-Pacific region, excluding Japan rose today by 1.6%.

 

Positive came to markets not only from Ukraine and Greece, but quite unexpectedly from Sweden, where the central bank has lowered on Thursday its repo rate to a negative value, and launched a program of quantitative easing. Amid this the Swedish krona fell against the dollar by 2%. Analysts state that Sweden joined the countries that have adopted additional measures to stimulate the economy after the ECB had started its QE.

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Vista Brokers: Brent Returned to $60

 

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Last week the Brent crude oil gained 4%, returning to the level of December 2014. Vista Brokers analysts note that the April Brent futures are now trading at $ 60.23 a barrel. March futures on Thursday rose by more than 4% to $ 57.05. WTI crude oil is also rising in price and at the time of writing is trading at $ 51.98 a barrel.

 

Analysts note that the week was extremely volatile for the oil market, which has been under pressure from the military conflict in Ukraine and economic problems in Greece the same as the other financial markets. These two factors put pressure on markets earlier this week, but after the talks in Minsk, which ended with the ceasefire agreement, the disturbance died down.

 

Another important factor which has supported oil was the fact that the largest US manufacturer of shale oil Apache Corp announced a significant reduction in the cost of development of new deposits.

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Vista Brokers: Markets Believe in Greek

 

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On Monday morning, the euro rose on expectations that today's Eurogroup meeting will bring a solution of a "Greek problem". Time is running out, because February 28 is the deadline for the current bailout program from creditors: ECB, EU and IMF. Decision must be made, otherwise the default is inevitable.

 

Vista Brokers analysts say that on the eve Athens has expressed confidence that today the compromise will be reached, while emphasizing that they disagree with austerity measures. Whether creditors will accept a position of Tsipras and whether they will find a way to restructure Greece's debts so that it suites both parties? We will know it tonight when the Eurogroup meeting comes to an end, and euro zone finance ministers will take part in a press conference.

 

On the eve of the meeting the single currency, which has been drifting between $ 1.1262-1.1534 during past few weeks, increased by 0.2% to $ 1.1411. Whatever decision is taken today by the Eurogroup, the euro will be affected to a large extent. Although if you remember the previous extraordinary session, investors have taken a lead from its results before the press conference.

 

Positive expectations about Greece have an impact on stock markets. Today in Japan, the market is at the level of 8-year high. The Nikkei added 0.5% and found itself at the highest level since 2007. Recall that US stock indexes have completed the past week with a significant increase: S & P 500 reached a historic high, and Nasdaq - a 15-year peak.

 

The market pay so much attention to the "Greek question" decision for a good reason. The Greek exit from the euro zone which can happen, if the problem is not resolved, would set a precedent for other countries which also have claims to the "troika" of creditors. Most likely Spain may pick up the baton of Athens. In this country there are also many people dissatisfied with the policy of austerity and a political party like the Greek "SYRIZA" has a chance to come to power.

[Vistabrokers]

Market Pulse 16.02

 

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On Monday, the economic calendar is almost empty - all investors' attention will be drawn to Eurogroup meetings, where a decision on Greece can be taken. Recall that during the previous meeting last week, Greek authorities have failed to reach a compromise with international lenders. In the United States today Presidents' Day is celebrated.

 

10:00 ** Trade Balance - December (euro zone)

 

Moderate impact on the market (EUR). Trade balance is a difference between the value of exported and imported goods for the month. Growth or exceeded the forecast are favorable for the currency.

 

14:45 ** ECB Announces Covered Bond Purchase - February (euro zone)

 

Moderate impact on the market (EUR). Based on this index, investors and market observers conclude on the extent of securities which the European Central Bank buy on its balance sheet.

 

19:00 ** Eurogroup Press Conference - February (euro zone)

 

Moderate impact on the market (EUR). Press conference may disclose any details of the talks, though their results, market participants are likely to be known before.

[Vistabrokers]

Vista Brokers: Euro Ignored Positive Statistics

 

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On Friday, the EUR/USD has traded in a narrow price range of 20 points, and even the positive statistics could not get it out of balance. Vista Brokers analysts note that the data on GDP changes for the 4th quarter in European countries, mainly, were stronger than expected. The euro zone economy grew by 0.3% mom and by 0.9% yoy vs. 0.2% and 0.8%, respectively. The German GDP showed an increase by 0.7% mom and 1.6% yoy, which also exceeded forecasts. More than expected data were released in Italy and Portugal.

 

Recall that Spain has released its GDP report two weeks ago, showing quarterly growth of 0.7%, which is the best value for the last seven years. The Dutch economy grew by 0.5% qoq.

 

In contrast to the EUR/USD, European stock markets have reacted to the positive statistics. The German DAX index for the first time exceeded the level of 11, the Stoxx Europe 600 index rose by 0.60%. Local indexes in France and Greece have also increased, although in Q4 GDP of these countries has slowed.

 

Analysts note that the single currency on Friday was under pressure ahead of the meeting of the Eurogroup, which will be held today. Market participants are worried about Greece, where on February 28 the program of financial aid will complete and the government of Alexis Tsipras refuses to renew it. The new terms of cooperation for international creditors and Greece can be taken at today's meeting of eurozone finance ministers.

[Vistabrokers]

Vista Brokers: Weak Japanese GDP Weighed on Oil

 

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On Monday, oil drops again after a short growth the day before. Analysts Vista Brokers note that the April futures price today fell by 0.31% to $ 61.33 per barrel. March futures price for WTI fell by 0.21% to $ 52.67 per barrel.

 

Experts point out that weak preliminary data on the GDP of Japan, which came in the night from Sunday to Monday put a pressure on the oil. Thus, in the fourth quarter, Japan's economy grew by 0.6% qoq vs. 0.9%. GDP annualized grew by 2.2%, but the market was expecting a more significant growth - by 3.7%. Nominal gross domestic product also showed growth below the forecast. Slowdown in the Japanese economy, which is a major exporter of petroleum products, brought pessimism to the oil market.

 

Recall that last week the "black gold" suddenly rose above $ 60 a barrel after signs of a possible slowdown in production volumes, including the reduction of oil supplies from Libya. In addition, the American company Baker Hughes announced the reduction of the number of rigs in the USA to a minimum since 2011.

[Vistabrokers]

Vista Brokers: Talks on Greece Deadlocked

 

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On Monday, EUR/USD went back above 1.14 amid positive expectations about a Eurogroup meeting and a possibility of a "Greek problem" decision. Vista Brokers analysts note that the single currency was also supported by the Bundesbank monthly report, which was full of positive regarding the German economy. In particular, the Bank pointed out that it "understands" the reasons for the revision of forecasts for economic growth in Germany upward, because at the end of 2014 it has "dramatically increased."

 

On the eve of the meeting of eurozone finance ministers stock markets rose. World stock index MSCI has increased to a maximum of 22 September amid talks on Greece and peace deal in Ukraine. Japan's Nikkei was close to the mark in July 2007, S & P 500 has reached a record level on Friday. Recall that US markets yesterday did not work due to the celebration of President's Day.

 

After the Eurogroup meetings market sentiment changed in the opposite. Agreement on Greece has not been reached, and therefore after 10 days the country will be left without assistance from international lenders. Head of the Eurogroup Jeroen Deysselblum said that euro zone finance ministers were disappointed with the position of Greece, for which the best option now would be an extension of aid programs, as well as structural reforms that it provides. Deysselblum said that Athens must submit a request for an extension no later than Friday. Probably, this day another meeting of the Eurogroup will be held.

 

Amid investors' disappointing EUR/USD has dropped from 1.1390 to 1.1330, where the pair received support.

[Vistabrokers]

Market Pulse 17.02

 

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On Tuesday, the German ZEW institute will publish several important indices in Germany and the euro area as a whole. A portion of interesting statistics will be released in the UK. The whole day is rather saturated with news. Today the meeting of European finance ministers is also held.

 

9:30 *** Consumer Price Index - January (UK)

9:30 ** Core CPI - January (UK)

9:30 ** Retail Price Index - January (UK)

9:30 ** Producer Price Index Input - January (UK)

9:30 ** Producer Price Index Output- January (UK)

9:30 ** Producer Price Index Output Core - January (UK)

 

Strong impact on the market (GPB). The most important indicator in this list is the consumer price index, and its value can have a strong impact on the pound. Analysts expect that inflation in the UK in January has slowed by 0.9%.

 

10:00 *** ZEW Economic Sentiment - February (Germany)

10:00 ** ZEW Survey (Current Situation) - February (Germany)

10:00 ** ZEW Economic Sentiment - February (euro zone)

 

Strong impact on the market (EUR). Analysts' expectations regarding to ZEW indices is very optimistic. After the eurozone and some individual member states in the 4th quarter of 2014 showed GDP growth exceeded forecasts, strong ZEW index may favorably affect the single currency. However, it is worth noting that the situation in Greece is now much more likely to affect the euro.

 

13:30 ** Empire State Manufacturing Index - February (USA)

 

Moderate impact on the market (USD). The indicator is based on a survey of manufacturers from the district of the Federal Reserve Bank in New York. Values above 0 reflects the increase in activity. In January, the index was at 9.95.

 

15:00 ** NAHB Housing Market Index - February (USA)

 

Moderate impact on the market (USD). Index, measured by the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB), reflecting the confidence of developers in the housing market. In February, the growth of the rate is expected.

 

17:15 *** SNB Chairman Thomas Jordan Speaks - February (Switzerland)

 

Strong impact on the market (CHF). Jordan's statements in which investors will be looking for hints on the future strategy of the central bank of Switzerland, can have a significant impact on the Swiss franc.

[Vistabrokers]

Vista Brokers: Hope for Greece Gave Way to Disappointment

 

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Tuesday morning stock markets fall amid unsuccessful negotiations on Greece at yesterday's Eurogroup's meetings. Market participants hoped that as a result of these talks at least some preliminary agreements will be achieved, but it has not happened. So, again, we have uncertainty and fear that Greece will refuse to pay debts and come out of the eurozone.

 

Vista Brokers analysts note that Asian stock indexes Nikkei and MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan today have lost by 0.1%. European indices are expect to show a significant reduction. The euro fell against the dollar to $ 1.1322, compared with Monday's $ 1.14295.

 

At the Eurogroup meeting Greece provided a "rough" version of solving the debt problem, which ministers of finance rejected and called unacceptable. This option involves the creation of a temporary assistance program for 4-6 months in order to (as Greek Finance Minister Janis Varufakis said) achieve "meaningful, sustainable and long-term agreement between Greece, Europe and the IMF."

 

In turn, the Eurogroup tried to convince Athens that the most appropriate option in the current situation will be the program of financial assistance continuation and providing structural reforms that it implies. These reforms are a stumbling block, as one of the "Syriza" and Alexis Tsipras campaign promises was the Greek refusal of austerity measures prescribed by the "troika" of creditors (ECB, EU and IMF).

 

By the way, the head of the International Monetary Fund, Christine Lagarde, during a press conference said that the provision of funds to Greece is only possible if the country complies with all prescriptions. That is, if Athens refuse to carry out unpleasant reforms, it will get no more money from the IMF.

 

Head of the Eurogroup Jeroen Deysselblum said that euro zone finance ministers were disappointed with the position of Greece. He said that Athens must submit a request for an extension no later than Friday. Probably, this day will be held another meeting of the Eurogroup.

[Vistabrokers]

Vista Brokers: Aussie Rose Slightly vs US Dollar

 

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On Tuesday, AUD/USD broke the mark of 0.7800 for the first time in the last five days. As Vista Brokers analysts say, factors of support for the Australian dollar have become quite neutral protocols of RBA meetings, as well as the overall US dollar decline.

 

Recall that at the last meeting the RBA has unexpectedly lowered interest rates, so that market participants expect that the protocols will be very "soft" and searched there for hints on further measures to stimulate the economy. However, the minutes showed neutral mood. It was noted that the recent decline in the Australian dollar is favorable for economic growth of Australia, and that an even lower rate may even lead to a temporary increase in inflation.

 

With regard to the reduction of the dollar, the DXY index has fallen on Tuesday from 94.34 to 94.29, supporting greenback's competitors. Resistance for AUD / USD can be 0.7800 or 0.7830 levels and support - 0.7720 or 0.7690.

[Vistabrokers]

Market Pulse 18.02

 

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Wednesday is extremely rich in important information. In Japan, the central bank will announce an interest rate decision and hold a traditional press conference. In the UK the data on the labor market and the minutes of the last Bank of England meeting will be published. Also interesting statistics will be released in the United States. The day will end with a FOMC meeting minutes publication.

 

6:30 *** BOJ Press Conference - February (Japan)

*** Overnight Call Rate - February (Japan)

*** Annual Rise in Monetary Base - February (Japan)

*** Monetary Policy Statement - February (Japan)

 

Strong impact on the market (JPY). The Bank of Japan does not tell the time of decisions on overnight call rate, rise in monetary base and monetary policy statement publication. This information can greatly affect the yen, as will give an idea about the future strategy of the Japanese regulator.

 

9:30 *** Claimant Count Change - January (UK)

9:30 ** Claimant Count Rate - January (UK)

9:30 ** Unemployment Rate - January (UK)

9:30 ** Average Earnings Index - January (UK)

9:30 ** Employment Change - January (UK)

 

Strong impact on the market (GPB). Labor market is one of the main landmarks for the central bank, so these indicators are influential. The most important indicator of this series is claimant count change, and forecasts for it are rather optimistic.

 

9:30 *** MPC Meeting Minutes - February (UK)

9:30 *** MPC Official Bank Rate Votes - February (UK)

9:30 *** MPC Asset Purchase Facility Votes - February (UK)

 

Strong impact on the market (GPB). At the previous meeting the Bank of England has left interest rates and the amount of the asset repurchase the same, confirming its attitude to the tightening of monetary policy over time. Market participants can learn from the minutes more about the mood of the Committee.

 

13:30 *** Building Permits - January (USA)

13:30 ** Housing Starts - January (USA)

13:30 *** Producer Price Index - January (USA)

13:30 ** Core PPI - January (USA)

 

Strong impact on the market (USD). The number of permits and housing starts reflect the health of the housing market and the economy as a whole. Analysts expect growth in permits, but reducing of new foundations. As for the producer price index, expectations are not too optimistic.

 

14:15 ** Capacity Utilization Rate- January (USA)

14:15 ** Industrial Production - January (USA)

 

Moderate impact on the market (USD). The level of capacity utilization allows us to estimate how much free capacity is in the economy, or whether it is "overheated". Note that the index came close to the mark of 80%, which is considered dangerous for the development of inflationary pressures.

 

19:00 *** FOMC Meeting Minutes - January (USA)

 

Strong impact on the market (USD). Minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting allows to more fully understand the reasoning of the committee during the meeting, as well as help market players to understand the next steps the Fed.