Market Analysis by Vistabrokers

[Vistabrokers]

Vista Brokers: Asian Markets Move Multidirectional

 

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On Monday, during the Asian trading session, stock markets in Japan and Australia were increasing, while in China they were declining. Vista Brokers analysts say that over the weekend Chinese authorities have taken some measures to calm markets worried with the situation in Greece (brokers and various financial companies are obliged to buy shares, with the support of the government). However, it does not help - today Shanghai Composite has fallen by 3.19%, while the Hang Seng index – by 1.17%.

 

In Japan, the Nikkei 225 has risen by 1.38% and the Australian S & P / ASX 200 – by 1.44%, after it became known that the Reserve Bank of Australia left its key interest rate unchanged - at the level of 2.0%. Key thought of the RBA accompanying statement is that further decline of the Australian dollar is desirable and necessary. Amid this AUD / USD has dropped to 0.7482.

 

It should be noted that the situation in Greece continues to affect markets. Today, Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras took a difficult telephone conversation with the head of the International Monetary Fund Christine Lagarde about missed payments on 30 June. Lagarde said unequivocally that the policy prohibits the lending of arrears, while employees of the organization can provide technical assistance to the country if Athens asks for it. A week ago, Greece has officially become the first developed country that has joined the list of IMF defaulters. Also note that it is a new finance minister in Greece - Janis Varufakis, who had suddenly resigned yesterday, was replaced by Deputy of Minister for Foreign Affairs Euclid Tsakalatos.

 

US stock markets (overnight) have declined compared with the closing on Monday. Dow Jones Industrial Average - by 0.26%, S & P 500 index – by 0.39%, NASDAQ Composite index – by 0.34%. The reason was the data on the non-manufacturing PMI index, published by ISM. In June, the index has risen from 55.7 to 56.0, but the forecast assumed an increase to 56.5. The ISM non-manufacturing employment index has decreased during the first summer month from 55.3 to 52.7.

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Vista Brokers: Oil Is Recovering after Falling

 

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On Tuesday, crude oil futures are rising in price. Vista Brokers analysts note that the "black gold" restores the position after yesterday's strongest decline in the last three months. Oil was pressured with talks on Iran and Greece, as well as concerns over a slowdown in China's economy.

 

During the European trading session on the ICE Futures Exchange Brent futures for August have risen in price by 0.38% to $ 57.38 per barrel. A day earlier, these futures have fallen by 6.27%, to close at 3-month low of $ 56.54 per barrel.

 

Meanwhile, on the New York Mercantile Exchange crude oil futures for August delivery have risen by 0.27% to $ 53.14 per barrel. On Monday, futures have lost 7.73% to close at the low of April 10, at $ 52.53 per barrel.

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Market Pulse 07/08

 

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5:00 ** Eco Watchers Survey: Current - June (Japan)

5:00 ** Eco Watchers Survey: Outlook - June (Japan)

 

Moderate impact on the market (JPY). Workers in sectors, which dramatically affects the change in consumer spending (workers of taxis, hotels, restaurants etc.), estimate the current situation in the economy, as well as its prospects.

 

11:30 *** Annual Budget Release - 2014 (UK)

 

Strong impact on the market (GPB). Speech of the British Chancellor of the Exchequer with the budget plan for the coming fiscal year, which begins in April. Traders and investors closely monitor, how balanced the budget is and what does the Treasury plans the next year.

 

12:30 *** Building Permits - May (Canada)

 

Strong impact on the market (CAD). Changing in the volume of permits issued for housing construction in Canada, seasonally adjusted. It is the important leading health indicator for the real estate market and the economy as a whole. Strong data can support the currency.

 

18:00 *** FOMC Meeting Minutes - June (USA)

 

Strong impact on the market (USD). Minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting help to more fully understand the reasoning of the Committee during the meeting and help market players to understand the Fed's next steps.

 

18:00 ** FOMC Member John C. Williams Speaks - July (USA)

 

Moderate impact on the market (USD). John Williams is a voting member of the FOMC, that is, his opinion affects the monetary policy.

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Vista Brokers: Euro Is Grasping at Straws

 

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On Tuesday morning the single currency fell against the dollar to 1-month low, but later regained position. Vista Brokers analysts note that the growth driver during the American session for the euro was the fact that Greece has submitted a new request to creditors to continue the program of financial assistance, despite the fact that the Sunday's referendum had showed the negative attitude of the Greeks to conditions of lending program from the ECB, the EU and the IMF. This is probably the last hope of Greece to remain in the euro zone.

 

At the emergency meeting in Brussels, the Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras has suggested European leaders a new plan to help the country to avoid bankruptcy. The plan includes two phases. The short-term phase implies that lenders will provide a new tranche in the next 3-4 months that Greece could pay debts to the ECB and the IMF, as well as to support banks. The long-term one is a two-year lending program, which also involves the releif of a significant part of the Greek debt. Judging objectively, the "troika" is unlikely to agree to such conditions, although it is impossible to make any predictions in such a difficult and tense situation.

 

Nevertheless, the market took the news about the latest proposal by Greece positive, and the euro rose sharply to $ 1.1002, ending the session with only a slight decline - 0.48%. Earlier, the pair has dropped to a four-week low at 1.0917.

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Vista Brokers: Crude Oil Futures Are Falling again

 

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On Wednesday, oil price are falling in price again. Vista Brokers analysts name several reasons for the decline: concerns over Greece, the panic in the Chinese stock market and the expectation of data on crude oil inventories from the US Energy Department.

 

Today during the Asian trading session, August futures for Brent have lost 38 cents, dropping to $ 56.47 per barrel. Since the beginning of the week, futures prices have dropped by more than 6% to April lows. US crude oil futures have tumbled today by 35 cents to $ 51.98, and since the beginning of the week they have lost about 8%.

 

Let us briefly describe all above-mentioned pressures. The development of the debt crisis in Greece continues to affect all financial markets. Lenders have given Athens timeuntil the end of the week to present a list of reforms in exchange for a new program of financial aid. Otherwise, Greece is likely to leave the euro zone.

 

As for China, the country's stock market continues to fall rapidly. The Shanghai Composite index has dropped at the opening by 6,97%, the Shenzhen Component has lost 4.44%. Compared to the peak in mid-June, the Shanghai Composite has sinked down by more than than 33% and the Shenzhen Component – by 40%. This weekend, the People's Bank of China said that it would take measures to ensure financial support and stabilize the stock market by providing sufficient liquidity to China Securities Finance Corporation (the only company in China that provides financing secured by margin to brokers). CSF, in turn, will actively buy shares of small and medium-sized companies, supporting the stability of blue chips and providing liquidity to the market.

 

The data on crude oil inventories from the US Energy Department will be published today - analysts suggest that the volume of stocks last week has plunged again (by about 700,000 barrels). Earlier was released the data from the American Petroleum Institute (API), which showed a decrease of inventories by nearly 960,000 barrels in the same period.

[Vistabrokers]

Vista Brokers: US Soybeans Are near 1-Week Low

 

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On Wednesday, soybean futures declined for the fifth consecutive session, dropping to the 1-week minimum. Vista Brokers analysts note that the reason for the decline is the information on the good harvest in the US Midwest, as well as concerns about global economic slowdown.

 

Today at the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, soybean futures for August delivery have fallen to the daily low of $ 9.8763 per bushel (the lowest level since 30 June) from the previously achieved level of $ 9.8850 (-0.31%). On Tuesday, the same futures has lost 2.96% during the day.

 

According to the US Department of Agriculture, as of July 5, about 63% of the crop of soybeans in the Midwest of the country is in good or excellent condition.

[Vistabrokers]

Market Pulse 07/09

 

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During early trading on Thursday in Australia and China was published a lot of important statistics. In Australia - the data on the labor market, and in China - the consumer price index and the producer price index. The Bank of England today will announce a decision on the interest rate, and the USA - data on unemployment claims.

 

6:00 ** Trade Balance - May (Germany)

 

Moderate impact on the market (EUR). The trade balance is the difference between exports and imports for the period. Positive values ​​are favorable for the currency, as they reflect the flow of money into the country.

 

11:00 *** Bank of England Interest Rate Decision - July (UK)

11:00 *** Asset Purchase Facility - July (UK)

11:00 *** MPC Rate Statement - July (UK)

 

Strong impact on the market (GPB). From the Bank of England, investors do not expect any surprises. According to forecasts, the interest rate will remain at 0.50%, while the volume of asset purchases - 375 billion. Comments in the accompanying statement can be interesting.

 

12:30 ** New Housing Price Index - May (Canada)

 

Moderate impact on the market (CAD). This indicator is strongly correlated with the overall health of the economy and reflects the level of consumer confidence. The increase reflects positive trends.

 

12:30 *** Unemployment Claims - July (USA)

12:30 ** Continuing Claims - July (USA)

 

Strong impact on the market (USD). The number of initial applications for unemployment benefits is a weekly indicator, having a great importance due to the expectation of the Fed's raising interest rate in September. It is expected reduction in the number of applications.

 

14:15 ** FOMC Member Lyell Braynard Speaks - July (USA)

 

Moderate impact on the market (USD). Braynard is a member of the FOMC, so his opinion influences decisions on monetary policy. Therefore, market participants are paying attention to his comments.

[Vistabrokers]

Vista Brokers: Greece and Fed Rate Hike Are in Central Focus

 

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On Wednesday, EUR / USD was traded in a wide range. Vista Brokers analysts note that main subjects that move the market are still the Greek crisis and the Federal Reserve interest rate hike.

 

Yesterday, the European authorities have given Greece a period until Thursday to provide a new proposal to creditors. Athens hope to agree on a program of financial assistance from the European Stability Mechanism, the bailout fund of the euro zone. If no agreement is reached, the EU leaders will gather on Sunday at an unscheduled summit in Brussels to discuss the procedure and consequences of a Greek exit from the currency union. The new Greek finance minister Euclid Tsakalatos said that a new proposal for the creditors is ready - it includes tax and pension reform, as well as debt relief.

 

During the US trading session on Wednesday the minutes of the last FOMC meeting were published. They showed that members of the Committee have expressed concerns that the situation in Greece will affect the financial markets, as well as were talking about the fact that the growth of the US economy should be more stable, and inflation - closer to the target of 2% before the rate hike. Thus, there are doubts that the Fed will raise the rate in September - investors will closely monitor the statistics published in the United States.

[Vistabrokers]

Vista Brokers: Oil Is Rising on Positive News from China

 

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On Thursday, during the Asian session, oil was rising in price. Vista Brokers analysts note that positive news from China was the driver for the growth. Firstly, the consumer price index in June has increased more than expected. Secondly, it became clear that the Chinese authorities are taking all necessary measures to calm the unrest in the country's markets.

 

Amid this on the New York Mercantile Exchange crude futures for WTI crude oil for August delivery have risen by 0.90% to $ 52.12 per barrel. On the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), August futures for Brent were traded between $ 55.88 and $ 57.75 per barrel.

 

Events in China and the economy of this country greatly affects the oil market, as China is the world's largest consumer of "black gold." In June, the consumer price index in China has increased by 1.4% against the forecast of 1.3% and growth of 1.2% a month earlier. The producer price index has dropped by 4.8% vs. 4.6%, which means that the pressure on prices continues. However, optimism exceeded disappointment at the reduction of PPI.

 

Recall that in the past few days, investors' anxiety commodity market caused panic in the Chinese stock market and a significant drop in major stock indexes. However, today during the morning trading the Shanghai Composite Index has risen by 2.35%. It became known that the People's Bank of China has provided liquidity to China Securities Finance Corp, which in turn, will provide it to other stock market participants.

 

We should also note other factors affecting the oil market. Last night, the US Energy Department has reported about crude oil inventories. So, for the week ended July 3, inventories have increased by nearly 400,000 barrels, although it was expected a decline by 750,000 barrels.

 

A certain influence also have talks on Iran, a positive result of which will allow the country to return to the oil market as a full participant. In recent days, the negotiations were actively conducted in Austria and it is the information that the parties have almost reached an agreement.

[Vistabrokers]

Vista Brokers: BOE Decisions Met with Expectations

 

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On Thursday, the British pound was strengthening against the US dollar prior to the release of the Bank of England decisions on the monetary policy. Vista Brokers analysts note that the British central bank has left its key interest rate unchanged - 0.50%, as well as the amount of asset purchases - 375 billion. These decisions are fully in line with expectations. Recall that the Bank of England's interest rate remains at 0.50% since March 2009.

 

Although market participants do not expect from the "old lady" any decisive steps in the near future, they are still looking for some hints that the central bank will gradually tighten its monetary policy. Perhaps some signals can be seen in the minutes of today's meeting, which will be published on July 22. The first reaction of GPB / USD on decisions of the Bank of England was a decline from 1.5385 to 1.5377.

 

European stock markets are rising today. The British FTSE 100 has increased by 1.1%, the EURO STOXX 50 - by 1.8%, the French CAC 40 – by 1.75%, the German DAX – by 1.65%.

[Vistabrokers]

Market Pulse 07/10

 

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On Friday, the market will wait for the speech of the Fed's head Janet Yellen, which may shed light on the future plans of the US central bank (namely, terms in which the rate hike can be expected). Canada will attract the attention of traders with the release of the data on the labor market.

 

8:30 ** Visible Trade Balance - May (UK)

8:30 ** Trade Balance Non EU - May (UK)

 

Moderate impact on the market (GPB). The balance of trade is the difference between exports and imports in the reporting month. Higher values ​​are favorable for the currency, as they reflect a smaller outflow of money from the country (as a rule, Britain suffers from a deficit).

 

12:30 *** Unemployment Rate - June (Canada)

12:30 *** Employment Change - June (Canada)

12:30 ** Full Time Employment Change - June (Canada)

12:30 ** Part Time Employment Change - June (Canada)

 

Strong impact on the market (CAD). Projections on labor market data in Canada are hardly optimistic - unemployment is expected to rise in June from 6.8% to 6.9%, and the number of employees - to decline by 4,500.

 

16:30 *** Federal Reserve Chairperson Janet Yellen Speaks - July (USA)

 

Strong impact on the market (USD). From Janet Yellen market participants expect hints on when the Fed will raise the interest rate. As a rule, Yellen is cautious in her statements.

[Vistabrokers]

Vista Brokers: Dollar Increased despite Weak US Labor Market Data

 

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On Thursday, the US dollar, was mainly increasing against the euro and other competitors. Vista Brokers analysts note that the position of the US currency did not weaken even after the release of the data on unemployment claims in the United States, which was much worse than expected. The market ignored the statistics, watching only the developments in Greece.

 

Nevertheless, it is worth noting that the number of initial claims for unemployment benefits for the week ended July 4 has increased by 15 000 to 297 000, while analysts had expected a decline of 7 000 to 275 000. This is not a good sign, because the last minutes of the Fed's meeting has once again confirmed that the regulator requires more obvious signals of economic recovery, to talk about rate hike. Today, market participants will wait for the speech of the Fed's head Janet Yellen and her comments on the matter.

 

By the way, according to minutes, FOMC members have mentioned Greece and the impact of its problems on financial markets, which may keep the Fed from the rate hike. Now European authorities are deciding whether to accept conditions of the three-year program of financial assistance for which Greece has requested - the issue should be resolved at a crisis summit on Sunday.

[Vistabrokers]

Vista Brokers: Oil Is Rising amid Stock Market Rally in China

 

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On Friday, oil futures are rising in price amid China's stock market rally, which followed protracted decline (-30% over the last three weeks). Vista Brokers analysts note that the main index of the Chinese market Shanghai Composite has gained more than 5% today after the Chinese authorities have taken additional measures to stabilize the situation and to ensure market liquidity inflows.

 

Commodity investors viewed negatively the decline of the Chinese stock market, because China is one of the largest importers of oil and other resources in the world. Stabilization of the situation supports the market. Today, on the New York Mercantile Exchange crude oil futures for August delivery have reached during early European trading the level of $ 53.28 a barrel, gaining 0.90%.

Meanwhile, on the ICE Futures Exchange in London, August Brent futures have risen by 1.09% to $ 59.22 per barrel. The spread between Brent and WTI contracts is equal to $ 5.94 per barrel.

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Market Pulse 07/13

 

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The most important event of the day on Monday will be a meeting of the European authorities in Brussels devoted to the Greek bailout program. The Bank of England today will publish its credit conditions survey.

 

*** Trade Balance - June (China)

** Exports - June (China)

** Imports - June (China)

 

Strong impact on the market. China does not inform in advance the exact time of publication, but it is worth noting that statistics published in this country, can significantly affect financial markets. In June, analysts expect the decline of the positive trade balance, a slight increase in imports and decrease in exports.

 

4:40 ** Tertiary Industry Activity - May (Japan)

 

Moderate impact on the market (JPY). The importance of this indicator in Japan inferiors to a manufacturing activity, but together they allow to form a picture of activity in the economy. In May it is expected a slowdown.

 

8:30 ** Credit Conditions Survey - Q2 (UK)

 

Moderate impact on the market (GPB). The quarterly survey of the Bank of England regards credit conditionsfor households, small businesses, non-financial corporations and non-financial companies in which respondents are asked to assess the availability and volume of lending.

 

*** Eurogroup Meetings - June (euro zone)

** ECB President Mario Draghi Speaks - June (euro zone)

 

Strong impact on the market (EUR). The question of financial assistance to Greece remains in focus of the market, so the Eurogroup meeting on this subject will certainly attract attention. Any decisions taken regards Greece, as well as expectations and assessment of these decisions will be reflected in the dynamics of the euro and other tools.

[Vistabrokers]

Vista Brokers: Market Believed in Greece again

 

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On Friday, the euro was increasing against the US dollar and the Japanese yen amid renewed optimism about Greece. Vista Brokers analysts point out that Athens gave creditors a new reform plan, including budget cuts, and this gives hope that Greece will still receive financial assistance and remain in the euro zone. Amid this the EUR / USD has risen by 1.1% to 1.1148 on Friday after touching the peak of July at around 1.1215.

 

The pair has stopped growing when comments of Fed's head Janet Yellen were more optimistic than the market had expected. According to Yellen, the Fed is getting ready to raise the key interest rate later this year. However, it did not add the US currency enough strength to finish the week higher against a basket of currencies. The dollar index has fallen on Friday by 0.73% to 95.96.

 

Recall that at the weekend the Greek question was not decided. According to participants of the summit, Greece needs funding in the amount from 82 to 86 billion euros. The country needs 7 billion transfer until 20 July, and another 20.5 billion - until mid-August.

[Vistabrokers]

Vista Brokers: Chinese Statistics Added Optimism

 

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During Monday's morning trading the European single currency was rising after a slight decrease at the opening. Vista Brokers analysts note that the Asian stock market also strengthens amid statistics on the import and export in China, which was better than expected.

 

Today it became known that euro zone leaders had met through the night and held a meeting on the new program of financial aid to Greece. The Greek authorities reported received a message that key reforms must be introduced this week to earn the trust of creditors and only then talks about the third program of financial rescue will continue. Note also that in the media there was anecdotal evidence that the European Central Bank has allowed Athens to delay payment on the loan, scheduled for July 20 in the amount of 3.5 billion euros.

 

\Asian indices are growing today after data on import and export in China, published in the morning, were higher than forecasts, and this led to the increased optimism of investors regards the second world's largest economy. Thus, in June, the balance of foreign trade in China has declined, but exports have risen by 2.8% after falling by 2.5% a month earlier and against the expected growth of only 1.0%. The volume of imports continues to decline. In June the figure has dropped by 6.1%, but compared with the expected decline of 15.5% and a fall of 17.6% in May, the data can be regarded as positive.

 

Amid this the main Japanese Nikkei index has risen by 1.6%. The MSCI index of Asia-Pacific region, excluding Japan, has increased by 0.8%. Recall that last week the Asian stock market was supported by additional measures taken by Beijing, and today's strong data from China only increased optimism. Thus, the index CSI300, covering major Chinese companies, rose 3% after rallying 5.7% last week.

[Vistabrokers]

Vista Brokers: Talks on Iran Are Close to Completion

 

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On Monday, oil prices on the world market are falling in price. Vista Brokers analysts note that the pressure on the "black gold" has the fact that Iran and six world powers have almost come to an agreement on Iran's nuclear program. If negotiations completes in a favor of Tehran, it will cause sanctions lifting, and after it Iran will make every effort to restore its position in the oil market.

 

Amid this August futures for Brent have declined during morning trading by $ 1.89 to $ 56.84 per barrel, then went back to $ 57.70 a barrel and soon resumed decline. WTI has dropped by 90 cents to $ 51.84 a barrel.

 

The agreement on Iran may be concluded today. This event, in addition to the slowdown of the Chinese economy, which we have seen in recent months, support traders disturbance about oversupply in the oil market.

[Vistabrokers]

Market Pulse 07/14

 

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Tuesday is full of important publications, among which are the data on inflation and a speech of the Bank of England Governor Mark Carney in the UK, retail sales data in the United States and indexes from the German ZEW institute. Euro zone finance ministers will meet today.

 

8:30 *** Consumer Price Index - June (UK)

8:30 ** Core CPI - June (UK)

8:30 ** Retail Price Index - June (UK)

8:30 ** Producer Price Index Input - June (UK)

8:30 ** Producer Price Index Output - June (UK)

8:30 ** Producer Price Index Output Core - June (UK)

 

Strong influence on the market (GPB). Important statistics may significantly affect the British pound in particular, the data on the consumer price index, which is one of the benchmarks for the Bank of England, which is expected to hint at monetary policy tightening in the future. It is expected that inflation in June has risen by 0.1%.

 

9:00 *** ZEW Economic Sentiment - July (Germany)

9:00 ** ZEW Survey (Current Situation) - July (Germany)

9:00 ** ZEW Economic Sentiment - July (euro zone)

9:00 ** Industrial Production - May (euro zone)

 

Strong influence on the market (EUR). Statistics is rather important, although the euro is now much influenced with the situation in Greece, so that the market may ignore the data. However, we note that the analysts expect the decline of ZEW indexes for Germany and the euro zone as a whole.

 

9:15 ** Treasury Select Committee Hearings - July (UK)

9:15 *** Bank of England Governor Mark Carney Speaks - July (UK)

9:15 ** BOE Deputy Governor for Financial Stability Jon Cunliffe Speaks - July (UK)

9:15 ** MPC Member Ian McCafferty Speaks - July (UK)

9:15 ** MPC Member David Miles Speaks - July (UK)

11:45 ** Treasury Select Committee Hearings - July (UK)

11:45 *** Bank of England Governor Mark Carney Speaks - July (UK)

11:45 ** BOE Deputy Governor for Financial Stability Jon Cunliffe Speaks - July (UK)

 

Strong influence on the market (GPB). At the hearings, representatives of the Treasury special committee and the Bank of England report on progress over time and answer questions from parliamentarians. The head of the Bank of England and some members of the Monetary Policy Committee will speak.

 

12:30 *** Retail Sales - June (USA)

12:30 *** Core Retail Sales - June (USA)

12:30 ** Retail Sales Excluding Auto & Gas - June (USA)

12:30 ** Import Prices - June (USA)

14:00 ** Business Inventories - May (USA)

 

Strong influence on the market (USD). Retail Sales, adjusted for seasonality and working days, but without price changes. Strong deviations from the forecast can move markets, as well as other data published today. In June it is expected growth, but less strong than the previous month.

[Vistabrokers]

Vista Brokers: Euro Fell after Long-Awaited Decision on Greece

 

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Protracted negotiations of Greece and its creditors, a technical default, closed banks ... all of this recently was keeping markets in suspense, making quotes to forget about technical patterns and surrender into the hands of fundamental ones. On Monday, the "Greek saga" has reached the final - Athens with international creditors agreed on a three-year financial bailout program.

 

Vista Brokers analysts say that the euro has responded to a long-awaited decision with a decline against the US dollar. Firstly, the decision was put in prices earlier, and secondly, when the Greek question was decided the topic of the Fed's interest rate hike came to the fore again.

 

So, Greece will receive 86 billion euros under the program of financial assistance during the next three years. Such a statement was made by German Chancellor Angela Merkel during a press conference following the summit of the euro zone countries, which has lasted 17 hours. Athens will receive financial assistance in return for serious pension reform, tax increases, mass privatization, the reform of the product, the pharmaceutical industry and more. By 15 July the government should take 15 measures (laws), and by July 22 - 22. If the Greek Parliament starts to pass new laws, the country will receive the first 7 billion euros until July 20. The market continues to closely monitor the course of events.

[Vistabrokers]

Vista Brokers: Oil Continues to Fall

 

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During Tuesday's Asian trading, oil prices continued to decline. Vista Brokers analysts note a strong pressure on the market, that has negotiations on Iran, which are coming to an end, as well as expected release of crude oil reserves data in the United States.

 

On the New York Mercantile Exchange August futures for WTI crude oil have declined today by 0.80% to $ 51.78 per barrel. Meanwhile, on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), Brent contracts for August delivery have reached a session high of $ 59.14 a barrel, before dipping to $58.17, down 0.81 or 1.38%earlier.

 

The American Petroleum Institute (API) will report today about the increase / decrease of crude oil inventories, and the US Department of Energy will do it tomorrow. Last week, the data could surprise investors and analysts. According to the Energy Information Administration (EIA), crude oil inventories in the USA have risen for the week ended July 3 by 400,000 barrels instead of the expected decline by 500 000. Thus, the volume of reserves has reached 465.8 million barrels, the highest level in the last 80 years. Growth "black gold" production and the development of shale deposits in the United States are among the reasons that led to oversupply in the oil market. That is why oil traders are watching the situation so closely.

 

As for Iran, on Monday afternoon, the Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif said that no agreement on the country's nuclear program will be concluded before the expiry of the deadline. Recall that the deadline for negotiations between Tehran and six world powers was postponed three times in recent weeks. However, White House representatives noted that that "genuine progress," had been made in the negotiations in spite of the further delays.

 

Completion of negotiations on Iran, followed by international sanctions lifting is a bearish signal for the oil market, as Tehran said that 30 million barrels are in reserves and ready to go for export. Although the country will take time to restore its former position, for the oil market it means oversupply increasing.

[Vistabrokers]

Vista Brokers: Gold Declines prior to US Statistics

 

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On Tuesday, gold is declining. Vista Brokers analysts note that all investors' attention today is focused on the data on retail sales, which will be published later in the USA. Now, when the Greek problem is solved, the focus of the market is on further recovery of the US economy and the Fed's rate hike. Demand for risky assets is growing.

 

During European trading, gold futures for August delivery on the Comex have fallen by 0.15% to $ 1,153.70 per troy ounce. A day earlier, the gold sank to the lowest level since March at $ 1,144.80 before closing at $ 1,155.40 (-0.22%). Silver for September delivery has fallen today by 0.83% to $ 15.32 per ounce. On Monday, the metal has lost 0.16% to close at $ 15.45 an ounce.

 

Today in the United States will be published data on retail sales and business inventories, and forecasts are rather optimistic. Tomorrow the Fed's head will speak ahead of the Senate Banking Committee. If today's statistics is strong and Yellen's comments are optimistic, gold can update lows.

[Vistabrokers]

Market Pulse 07/15

 

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Wednesday is very saturated with important statistics that will be published throughout the day. China has reported on GDP for the 2nd quarter and industrial production in June. Also a press conference was held at the National Bureau of Statistics. In Japan, the central bank has adopted a decision on the interest rate and the annual growth of the monetary base.

 

8:30 *** Claimant Count Change - June (UK)

08:30 ** Claimant Count Rate - June (UK)

8:30 ** Unemployment Rate - June (UK)

8:30 ** Average Earnings Index - June (UK)

8:30 ** Employment Change - June (UK)

 

Strong influence on the market (GPB). Portion of statistics on the UK labor market will attract investors' attention. Forecasts are optimistic: it is expected, that the number of applications for benefits declines, earnings grow and the unemployment rate remains at the previous level - 5.5%. Stronger data may stimulate the growth of the British pound.

 

12:30 *** Producer Price Index - June (USA)

12:30 ** Core PPI - June (USA)

12:30 ** Empire State Manufacturing Index - June (USA)

 

Strong influence on the market (USD). Another piece of US data may cause active market fluctuations. Strong data are able to maintain confidence that the Fed will raise the interest rate in the foreseeable future. Forecasts are optimistic.

 

12:30 *** Manufacturing Sales - May (Canada)

13:00 ** Existing Home Sales - June (Canada)

 

Strong influence on the market (CAD). Manufacturing sales can serve as an early indicator of the acceleration or deceleration of economic activity. The growth is favorable for the currency.

 

13:15 ** Capacity Utilization - June (USA)

13:15 ** Industrial Production - June (USA)

 

Moderate influence on the market (USD). Analysts expect both indicators to increase in June. Now the market closely monitors the statistics published in the United States, as it can provide signals about the Fed's interest rate hike.

 

14:00 *** BOC Monetary Policy Report - Q3 (Canada)

14:00 *** Overnight Rate - July (Canada)

14:00 *** BOC Rate Statement - July (Canada)

15:15 *** BOC Press Conference - July (Canada)

 

Strong influence on the market (CAD). From the Bank of Canada market is not waiting for any surprises: the rate should remain at 0.75%. However, the monetary policy report, as well as the accompanying statement may shed light on the future plans of the Bank of Canada.

 

14:00 *** Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen Testifies - July (USA)

18:00 ** Beige Book - July (USA)

19:00 ** FOMC Member John C. Williams Speaks - July (USA)

 

Strong influence on the market (USD). Speech of Janet Yellen is one of the most important events of the day, as after the adoption of the long-awaited decision on Greece the question of the Fed's rate hike is in focus. Optimistic comments of Fed's head, as well as of Federal Open Market Committee members will support the confidence of investors that the US central bank will raise the rate.

[Vistabrokers]

Vista Brokers: Market Is Full of Doubts

 

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On Tuesday, the EUR / USD was trading within a wide price range. Vista Brokers analysts say that after the strong decline of the euro, following the prior agreement on the Greek financial bailout program, the market could not determine the direction amid the saturated fundamental background.

 

Will the Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras convince the Greek parliament to pass laws that are required to receive a tranche? In the first half of the day the euro was pressured with the fact that Greece will take four of required laws, including painful pension and tax reforms before the deadline on Wednesday. Amid this the EUR / USD has touched a week low at 1.0967.

 

During the US trading session in the USA were published important data, which were in general not so optimistic, as the market had expected. In June, retail sales in the US have fallen by 0.3% against the forecasted growth of 0.2%. The May data was revised down. Statistics on business inventories was in a line with forecast (+ 0.3%).

 

After such statistics market has returned to concerns about the US economic growth in the second quarter, and as a result, the Fed's interest rate hike. Today is the day, very saturated with the information, and the Fed's head Janet Yellen speech will draw the particularly strong attention. Her comments can zoom or delay the rate increase waiting times.

[Vistabrokers]

Vista Brokers: Aussie Rose after Strong Statistics from China

 

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During early trading in Forex the Australian dollar was losing positions after the release of the Westpac consumer sentiment index, which has fallen in July to 92.2, its lowest level since December last year. However, as Vista Brokers say, later Aussie has changed its direction and began to grow after the publication of statistics in China. Immediately after the strong data release, AUD / USD has added 0.12% to 0.7466.

 

All China's statistics published at 02:00 GMT were better than expected, which, of course, has added optimism to the Australian dollar and other "commodity" currencies. So, the real GDP (from the beginning of the year) has increased in Q2 by 7.0% against the expected 6.9%. Industrial production in June has increased by 6.8%, while the forecast predicted weaker value of 6.0%. The volume of retail sales during the first summer month has also risen more than expected ( by 11.4% instead of 11.2%).

 

From the news published during the Asian session, it is also worth noting that the Bank of Japan has voted 8 to 1 for leaving its monetary policy unchanged. It is worth noting that the Japanese central bank has revised its forecasts for GDP and inflation for the next three fiscal years, with a decrease.

[Vistabrokers]

Vista Brokers: Gold Treads Water, Copper Grows

 

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On Wednesday, gold is traded without a direction prior to the Federal Reserve head Janet Yellen speech, while copper is increasing after positive statistics from China. Vista Brokers analysts note that the speech of the Fed's head ahead of Congress, that will be held later today, can significantly affect many financial instruments.

 

Based on Yellen's comments, market participants will draw conclusions about the timing of interest rate hike. Last Friday, the Fed's chief reiterated that the regulator will raise rates later this year, if on the labor market and the US economy as a whole is positive. Despite clear signs of the US economy recovery, the situation is still ambiguous, and a vivid example of this was yesterday's retail sales data, which has showed a decline of 0.3%.

 

So today, in early hours of the European trading session on the Comex, gold futures for August delivery have fallen by 0.02% to $ 1,153.70 per troy ounce. A day earlier, the metal has fallen to the lowest level since March at $ 1,144.40 before closing at $ 1,153.50 (-0.16%). Silver for September delivery today was traded on Comex at $ 15.28 per ounce (-0.23%). On Tuesday, the metal has fallen by 0.92% to close at $ 15.31.

 

Meanwhile, copper today has risen in price after the publication of strong data in China. The real GDP (from the beginning of the year) has increased in Q2 by 7.0% against the expected 6.9%. Industrial production in June has increased by 6.8%, while the forecast predicted weaker value of 6.0%. The volume of retail sales during the first summer month has also risen more than expected ( by 11.4% instead of 11.2%).

 

Positive statistics reduced concerns over a slowdown in China's economy and supported copper, as China is the world's largest importer of the metal (40%). Copper futures for September delivery have risen today on the Comex by 0.82% to $ 2.556 per pound.