Daily Market Analysis from Hotforex Broker

[HFblogNews]

Date : 4th May 2015.

 

TODAY’S CURRENCY MOVERS.

 

http://analysis.hotforex.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/EURUSD-D1.png

 

EURUSD, Daily

 

EURUSD has reacted lower from the resistance level (1.1279) I pointed out in my previous Currency Movers reports. On Friday US April ISM remained stuck at 51.5, below median 52.0 (vs 51.5 in March) while U.S. construction spending fell 0.6% in March, (below median 0.5%) and US Markit final PMI eased to 54.1 in April. The absence of Tokyo and London centres will ensure thin trade today. Through to Friday, the euro had climbed for seven successive days, but looks likely for a pause now. Greece remains an issue. Despite signs that the government in Athens has adopted an improved attitude, news reports from weekend negotiations suggest that fundamental differences remain with creditors, particularly on pension reform and privatisation proposals. Next daily support level is at 1.1035.

 

http://analysis.hotforex.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/2015-05-04_1051.png

 

Currency Pairs, Grouped Performance (% Change)

 

At the time of writing Euro’s performance remains mixed while USD is only just slightly stronger than its peers. US Dollar Index is reacting higher from support level (94.91) I pointed out in my earlier reports but there has not yet been much movement which is evidenced by the above chart. The only exception is CHF that has been weak this morning almost across the board. EURCHF lagging behind the others as both currencies in this pair are reacting lower from a resistance. JPY slightly stronger than others with EURJPY reacting from a resistance. All in all there hasn’t been much movement this morning as Japanese and Brits are enjoying a day off.

 

Main Macro Events Today

 

Chinese HSBC Final Manufacturing PMI fell to a final 48.9 in April, down from the preliminary (or “flash) reading of 49.2 and the final 49.6 in March. The April figure fell short of expectations for little change from the preliminary report’s 49.2. Government’s stimulus efforts are falling short, with the government’s target for 7% GDP growth looking increasing optimistic. Further stimulus measures from the government and another rate cut from the PBoC are likely in store for the near term.

 

Eurozone Markit Manufacturing PMI: The April Manufacturing PMI fell to 51.9 from 52.2 and the services reading to 53.7 from 54.2, which brought the composite down to 53.5 from 54.0. Indicators still point to healthy expansion. The overall EMU Markit PMI is expected to come in at 51.9.

 

US Factory Orders m/m March factory orders are expected to grow 2.0%.

 

http://analysis.hotforex.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/2015-05-04_0923.png

 

Please, click here to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

 

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

HotForex

 

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFblogNews]

Date : 4th May 2015 (Second Analysis)

 

EURJPY AT RESISTANCE AND WITH ROOM TO FALL.

 

http://analysis.hotforex.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/EURUSD-W.png

 

EURGBP, Weekly

 

As EURUSD moved higher last week, EURJPY rallied very strongly and reached the February highs. Last week’s close was inside the weekly pivot candle from February this year, roughly the same area that was earlier defined by October 2014 pivot low. As reaction to previous pivot levels and today’s price action now proves this area has psychological significance. The nearest support and resistance levels are 131.30 and 136.85. The 50% Fibonacci level coincides roughly with the 131.30 support. This is quite far away from the current price and therefore suggests current levels are good for those looking for shorting opportunities. Earlier today EURUSD has been reacting lower from a resistance while JPY has been slightly stronger than its peers across the board. With EURJPY also trading lower from a resistance this should be a good time to be bearish on EUR and bullish on JPY.

 

http://analysis.hotforex.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/EURUSD-D2.png

 

EURJPY, Daily

 

On Friday EURJPY hit resistance just above 135.02 and turned lower. This resistance was created by a pivot candle from February 11th and now price is trading 0.49% below the close from Friday. Stochastics is overbought and about to roll over while the pair has been trading outside the Bollinger Bands and is now edging close to the upper 2 stdv band. A close below the band would be a further confirmation of bearish mood in EURJPY. The nearest daily support level is at 131.29 with the 50% Fibonacci level and 50 day SMA not that far behind at 130.75 and 130.32 respectively. Movements below 38.2% Fibonacci level at 131.81 should be monitored for momentum reversal signals.

 

http://analysis.hotforex.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/EURUSD-240.png

 

EURJPY, 240 min

 

As the pair has moved lower the Stochastic Oscillator has declined to overbought levels. However price is now trading below 134.23, a level that used to be an intraday support and should now act as a resistance. Nearest intraday support level is at 132.46 where lower Bollinger Bands and an old channel high coincide. The next support area consists of April 6th pivotal resistance area between 130.40 and 131.29. Currently the 50 period SMA is also inside area.

 

Conclusion

 

The pair is overbought in higher timeframes and in resistance which indicates it’s time for it to correct lower. At the time of writing EUR is weak against all the major currencies while JPY is holding up against all the others but CAD. This combined with the technical weakness in EURJPY suggests that the trading opportunities in this pair are in the downside. EURUSD being weak at resistance is also supporting the bearish view. My target one in for short term trades is at 131.50 and target 2 at 130.40.

 

Trade these levels only if price action at the levels confirms my analysis. If you don’t know how to read price action, please join me to our free webinars and learn how to take your trading to the next level.

 

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

HotForex

 

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFblogNews]

Date : 5th May 2015.

 

TODAY’S CURRENCY MOVERS.

 

http://analysis.hotforex.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/EURUSD-D3.png

 

EURUSD, Daily

 

On May the 1st I wrote: the EUR is strong across the board this morning but at some point reversion to mean kicks in and this market will react lower. EURUSD started turning lower that very same day and has been moving lower since. It is breaking intraday supports and honouring resistance levels. Stochastics are rolling over and price is trading inside the Bollinger Bands. At the time of writing the pair is at 23.6% Fibonacci level that coincides with April 30th daily lows. The 1.1035 to 1.1052 support area is a likely target on the downside if the 23.6% level is violated. Yesterday was light on economic releases. US factory orders bounced 2.1% in March, right in line with median expectations versus -0.1% in February.

 

http://analysis.hotforex.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/2015-05-05_1028.png

 

Currency Pairs, Grouped Performance (% Change)

 

As I suggested last week the the US Dollar index has been strong since DXY hit support at 94.91 and after a slow start it has moved higher over the last couple of days. The AUD strength that followed the 0.25% rate cut has been a surprise and has raised eye brows on Bloomberg TV this morning. Aussie dollar is strong across the board with EUR, CAD and CHF being the weakest currencies against it. EUR being weak against everything else probably isn’t any surprise to regular readers of Currency Movers report. EURUSD trading lower from a resistance level has been dragging the other EUR pairs lower with it and this has created trading opportunities in these pairs. One of them was EURJPY which I analysed in yesterday’s Multi Time Frame article. GBP pairs have not moved much yet but with the election looming just a couple days from now there could be some more volatility ahead. EURGBP looks interesting as it rallied so strongly over the last week. After hitting my target range of 0.7376 to 0.7422 the pair has turned lower and could provide further opportunities for short term traders with volatility likely staying high.

 

Main Macro Events Today

 

RBA Cash Rate: The RBA cut the cash rate by 25 bp to a record low of 2.0%, as was largely expected. A reference to the currency in the statement gets to the crux, that a further fall in the Australian dollar is necessary. The RBA would have been discomforted by last week’s surge in AUD-USD to a three-month high at 0.8075. The central bank also cites weakness in capital expenditure as a key risk, and notes that spare capacity will remain in the economy for some time.

 

Spanish Unemployment is expected to drop by 64.8k compared to previous change of -60.2k.

 

UK Construction PMI is seen to stay almost unchanged. Median figure points to a slight 0.2 point dip.

 

CAD Trade Balance is projected to improve to a C$0.9 bln deficit in March from the C$1.0 bln shortfall in February.

 

US Trade Balance is likely to increase by 25% to -$44.5 bln in March (median -$40.3bln) from -$35.4 bln in February.

 

US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI is expected to hold steady from 56.5 in April. This compares to a recent high of 58.8 in November.

 

http://analysis.hotforex.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/EC_0505.png

 

Please, click here to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

 

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

HotForex

 

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFblogNews]

Date : 5th May 2015 (Second Analysis)

 

EUR HAS BEEN MOVING LOWER. DO YOU KNOW HOW TO TIME YOUR SHORT ENTRIES?.

 

http://analysis.hotforex.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/EURJPY-60min.png

 

Did you see how EURUSD turned from a resistance I pointed out to you well in advance but didn’t know how to trade the move? EURJPY is another pair with a great opportunity to short the market yesterday after my analysis. However, do you know how to do it step by step? Join me today to a Live Analysis Webinar and I will show you how to analyse the market and take advantage of high probability trade setups. I will also answer your trading questions live.

 

Twice a month we gather together to a Live Analysis Webinar to study the markets and recent price action. In these sessions I share my thoughts and analysis on currency pairs and teach our traders to understand what is important when looking for high probability trade setups. This is a great opportunity to watch and learn fromwhat I share and get your questions answered. We’ve had excellent feed back from our traders on these sessions. I am convinced that you will benefit greatly by investing an hour of your time with the rest of us. Please, follow the link below and book your seat.

 

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

HotForex

 

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFblogNews]

Date : 6th May 2015.

 

TODAY’S CURRENCY MOVERS.

 

http://analysis.hotforex.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/EURUSD-D4.png

 

EURUSD, Daily

 

Broad dollar weakness has kept the EURUSD on an upward trajectory following yesterday’s big U.S. trade deficit miss, which risks a negative outcome in revised Q1 GDP data. This is obviously a reason for the Fed to be cautious about the US economy and means the Fed will be seen more likely to push the first rate hike further in to the future. On the other hand this Friday’s U.S. jobs report for April could show a rebound from unexpected weakness in March and therefore be a reason for added volatility and a reaction to lower levels. EURUSD recovered the last two day’s losses yesterday after turning higher slightly above the upper end of my support range. The latest rally came despite a Greek government official, cited by Bloomberg yesterday, saying that a compromise in bailout negotiations cannot occur until the IMF and the European Commission reduce the number of red lines they’re demanding and resolve differences between them. Greece needs to roll-over 1.4 bln euros of debt on May 8th and pay 200 million euros in interest payments to the IMF. Should there be further glitches in the negotiations they could be translated into added volatility in euro pairs. Yesterday’s daily candle was a hammer right above a support area (former resistance) which suggested higher prices, and now the pair is approaching the 1.1290 resistance. As usual, we look to buy at supports and sell at resistances but this time we might well see a push higher (than 1.1290) and then a reaction from higher levels. The nearest resistance after 1.1290 is at 1.1356 while the nearest daily support stays at 1.1035 – 1.1052.

 

http://analysis.hotforex.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/2015-05-06_1147.png

 

Currency Pairs, Grouped Performance (% Change)

 

Today’s weakest currency has been NZD. At the time of writing this NZD is down against GBP by almost 1% and against the AUD and EUR approx. 1.40%. GBPNZD has been rallying after yesterday’s narrow range candle at support while AUDNZD continues the rally from yesterday. AUD started rallying yesterday morning after the RBA cut the rates by 0.25% and the market participants interpreted the action as the last rate cut the central bank will make. Now that NZD has been weak, let’s take a quick look a the NZD pairs. NZDJPY is trading daily Bollinger Bands after moving sideways for few days, AUDNZD has reached a resistance created by a pivot candle and the weekly 1.5 stdv Bollinger Band while GBPNZD has reacted lower from last week’s high at 2.0359. EURNZD has been trending higher but has been reacting lower this morning and NZDUSD is trading at lower daily Bollinger Bands. There will be a point at which strong runners have been moving too far too fast and will correct lower. Look for price action to confirm your trading ideas.

 

Main Macro Events Today

 

Australia retail sales rose 0.3% in March after the 0.7% m/m gain in February. The March gain was as-expected. Meanwhile, retail sales volumes increased 0.7% in Q1.

 

HSBC China Services PMI from April came in slightly below expectations at 52.9 (vs consensus 53.1) but improved from March print of 52.3.

 

Eurozone services PMIs beat expectations in rising to 54.1 in April, up from the flash estimate of 53.7 but slightly down on March’s 54.2. The composite PMI worked out at 53.9, up from the flash estimate of 53.5 but down on the 54.0 March figure, which was an 11-month high. Highlights from the national data include Germany’s services PMI dipping to 54.1 from the flash 54.4 figure and down from 55.4 in March, while the French services PMI fell to 51.4 from 52.4.

 

Spain’s Markit April services PMI was outstanding and surged to 60.3 after 57.4 in March, surpassing the median forecast of 57.4 by a big margin. This adds to the growing line of encouraging data out of Spain.

 

UK Markit services PMI is expected to ease slightly to 58.7 from 58.9.

 

Eurozone Retail Sales for March expected to register some contraction and come in at 2.4% vs February 3.0%.

 

ADP Employment Change April nonfarm payrolls are expected to increase by 220k, with a 210k private payroll gain while today’s ADP figure is expected to show a slight increase to 192k from previous 189k.

 

FED Chair Yellen Speaks

 

http://analysis.hotforex.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/EC.png

 

Please, click here to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

 

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

HotForex

 

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFblogNews]

Date : 7th May 2015.

 

TODAY’S CURRENCY MOVERS.

 

http://analysis.hotforex.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/EURUSD-D5.png

 

EURUSD, Daily

 

I wrote yesterday that we look to buy at supports and sell at resistances but this time we might well see a push higher (than 1.1290) and then a reaction from higher levels. The nearest resistance after 1.1290 is at 1.1356… This is exactly what happened in yesterday’s trading. EURUSD pushed above the resistance and yesterday’s daily candle closed at 1.1341 after touching my resistance level at 1.1356. EURUSD has been running higher despite persisting Greek uncertainties, which has seen the Greek 2-year yield push back above 21%. Broader dollar weakness has underpinned EURUSD amid a continued flow of soft U.S. data, including yesterday’s weak ADP jobs and productivity data (Nonfarm Productivity q/q -1.9%), which followed big U.S. trade deficit miss on day before. Should Greek government and Greece’s creditors fail to reach compromise, it would likely trigger a referendum, if not elections on whether to stay in the single currency. Such a failure to agree on a compromise would spark an explosion in Grexit fears. According to Fed Chair Yellen long term yields are at “very low levels”, and said that rate lift off could trigger a sharp jump in rates. She didn’t give any clues on just when the first tightening might happen but pointed to risks in the stock market as the valuations are “generally quite high” and that raising the Fed funds rate is likely to be followed by a spike in Treasury yields.

 

This morning EURUSD has been trading in the proximity of the 1.1356 resistance level and has this far struggled to move decisively above the yesterday’s high of 1.1370. This increases the likelihood of EURUSD correcting lower. However, there are support levels fairly close and it is likely that a retracement into this bracket will attract buyers. I look to for buy signals between 1.1290 and 1.1223 with a target range at 1.1480 to 1.1534.

 

http://analysis.hotforex.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/2015-05-07_1037.png

 

Currency Pairs, Grouped Performance (% Change)

 

There has not been much movement in currencies overnight. Only a few pairs have had some movement while most are in the 20 – 30 basis point range. The only exceptions to this sleepiness are, EURCAD and EURGBP that have at the time of writing moved -0.41% and 0.38% respectively. CHF being a safe haven currency is attracting money as well. It has moved the most against GBP and AUD. on this election morning the UK Sterling has been slightly weaker than the other majors signalling that the market participants cautious before the election results are available.

 

Main Macro Events Today

 

UK Parliamentary Election: Pre-election polls have been remarkably consistent, putting the Conservative Party in the lead, but with support well short of an outright majority. This leaves a good possibility that a coalition government will formed.

 

Australian Employment Change and Rate sank 2.9k in April by seasonally adjusted measure, well below the modest gain expected, while the unemployment rate ticked up to 6.2% from 6.1%.

 

German Factory Orders rose 0.9% m/m, below market consensus, which hoped for a stronger rebound from the two months of contraction. Especially as current condition indicators in confidence indicators had been strong. Still, the return to growth coupled with still robust ZEW, Ifo and PMI readings confirms that the German economy remains on track.

 

US Jobless Claims are expected to be 280k (median 279k) in the week-ended May 2. Continuing claims are expected to rise to 2,300k for the week-ended April 25. Forecast risk is downward, as there is risk of rebound after last week’s large decline and market risk for USD is likewise downward, as weaker than expected data could further delay rate hike expectations.

 

Canadian Building Permits are expected to rise 1.0% in March (median +3.0%) after the 0.9% dip in February and 12.3% plunge in January.

 

US Consumer Credit consumer credit for March is expected to increase $16.0 bln after a $15.5 bln gain in February.

 

http://analysis.hotforex.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/2015-05-07_0837.png

 

Please, click here to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

 

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

HotForex

 

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFblogNews]

Date : 7th May 2015 (Second Analysis)

 

COPPER TRADING AT RESISTANCE.

 

http://analysis.hotforex.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/HG-W1.png

 

Copper, Weekly

 

In my previous report on copper (March 16th) I wrote that traders might want to be buyers near support levels rather than trying to find shorts as the Chinese premier Li Keqiang commented that the government will be ready to support the Chinese economy. The logic was that the hope of economic stimulus in China should support the price of copper. The price of red metal has since risen by 9.3% after testing the $2.55 support I identified in the same report. Then the $2.88 resistance created sizeable swing to the downside but was penetrated on a closing basis just few days ago. The world stock markets have been correcting lower pretty strongly this week.

 

Over the last couple of months investors have also been reasoning that with ECB printing Euros fund managers would need to allocate money to commodities. This has supported metals and especially copper lately. Now however the global equity markets are looking soft and with such a risk aversion in place we might see the price of copper being capped over the medium to long term.The MSCI World index, a global benchmark for equities, has fallen out of the rising weekly regression channel and created a shooting star in the monthly time frame (see my @HF_Analysis, ie my tweets for charts). MSCI World has been a good indicator on stock market tops in the past and the current action in the index points to higher volatility that should then be resolved to lower equity prices over the rest of this year. This is not promising for the price of copper in long term.

 

Currently copper is trading between support and resistance levels and it has reached proximity of descending long term trendline. Weekly lows from October last year at $2.95 resist moves higher. In addition, we have the 50 week simple moving average at $2.93, right at the at the current bid price. Stochastics are overbought and unless there is no strong movement to either direction today or tomorrow this week’s trading will create a doji candle. Should this week’s candle indeed become a doji the support at March high ($2.91) is more likely to be broken. The next weekly support level is at $2.83. If the $2.91 level holds then the next resistance is at $3.08.

 

http://analysis.hotforex.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/HG-D.png

 

Copper, Daily

 

Stochastics are overbought and now they are moving sideways as the last three days’ trading has been range bound. The support and resistance levels are pretty much the same as in weekly picture with $2.83 being the first level that is likely to attract buying should the 2.91 – 2.89 support break. After that the next levels to look at are the rising trendline and the $2.66 to $2.70 support range. However, if today’s trading finishes above the midway of the candle we have a candle that suggests further upward pressure. This would increase possibilities that the current consolidation is a bull flag that will be resolved in the direction of the original move. The next daily resistance levels are at 2.95, 3.01 and 3.08.

 

http://analysis.hotforex.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/HG-2401.png

 

Copper, 240 min

 

Price has been finding support between $2.89 and $2.91 while the resistance is at $2.95 – $2.96 range. Such a tight range usually implies uncertainty in the market place and can lead to price reversing an earlier move. This far the bar lows have each been slightly higher than previous ones but should copper start making lower lows the downside risk would increase. Narrowing Bollinger Bands suggests that there will be a quick increase of volatility rather soon. At the time of writing Money Flow Index is oversold suggesting an intraday buy opportunity.

 

Conclusion

 

Copper is trading between a support and a resistance. The first reaction lower from this resistance area (in March) was quite strong creating a huge weekly shooting star candle. Now that the price has been able to move further into the resistance and has stayed above the March high we need to follow the price action closely to see if this support will hold. If today’s trading finishes above the midway of the daily candle we have an indication of further upward pressure. This would increase possibilities that the current consolidation is a bull flag that will be resolved in the direction of the original move. The next daily resistance levels are at 2.95, 3.01 and 3.08. However, please remember that because price is at longer term resistance easy money for longs has been made and long trades at current levels are not high probability trades. As a general rule I do not like to be a buyer close to higher timeframe resistance levels but would rather like to see a correction to daily support levels where I would be looking for price based confirmation for the long side bias. However, those wanting to trade aggressively short term or intraday could consider buying at levels close to intraday supports at 2.89 to 2.91 with less than usual gearing. If price breaks below the 2.91 support, we should be looking for short term opportunities on the downside (as per my teaching in the webinars) with targets at daily and weekly support levels. Also, the publication of US NFP report on Friday is getting near and this should be factored into all trading decisions.

 

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

HotForex

 

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFblogNews]

Date : 8th May 2015.

 

TODAY’S CURRENCY MOVERS.

 

http://analysis.hotforex.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/EUR.png

 

EURUSD, Daily

 

Thursday morning I expected to see a move lower and then buyers stepping in between 1.1290 and 1.1223. The pair moved lower as expected and then signalled buys inside this range but there was no follow through and the lack of momentum turned to further down move. Currently EURUSD is trading at the May 5th daily highs. There has been again some attempt to take the pair higher but intraday resistance levels have halted the moves so far. As the time of Non-Farm Payrolls release is getting closer market reactions are likely to be subdued until the figures are released. As we have seen over this year NFP figure is capable of surprising both the markets and analysts. This figure can be in line or it can deviate strongly from the expectations. As there is no way of know what the figure will be and what the market reaction to this unknown figure is likely to be, committing to a trade beforehand is not recommendable. We should only trade when probabilities are on our side.

 

At the time of writing EURUSD is trading at a daily high from May 5th and has created a 4h hammer candle after it bounced higher from the 50 period SMA. In the daily picture the current price action takes place close to the upper Bollinger Bands and near February sideways range. The weekly candle with current price close to the Monday’s opening price suggests weakness over the coming few days. A strong rally higher would quite obviously negate this view. In 4h timeframe the Stochastic Oscillator is oversold while in daily chart Stochastics are rolling over from the overbought levels. This fits together with price wedging at resistance. Momentum has slowed down and I expect price needs to move lower before finding a level from which to bounce higher again. Region near weekly closing value (from end of March) at 1.0960 would be an interesting level to look for signals for long trades. Significant support levels for the pair are: 1.1035, 1.0970 and 1.0848 (50 day SMA close at 1.10867), while significant resistance levels are at 1.1400 and 1.1480.

 

http://analysis.hotforex.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/2015-05-08_1510.png

 

Currency Pairs, Grouped Performance (% Change)

 

Changes have been nominal ahead of the Non-Farm Payrolls release. AUD has still been slightly stronger than others while GBP strength that we saw earlier today has eased a bit. JPY weakness is understandable as USDJPY has made a higher low yesterday and has moved nicely higher today.

 

Main Macro Events Today

 

US Non-Farm Payrolls are likely to increase by 225k for April. An improvement over the 126k March headline but still lower than the 264k headline in February. The unemployment rate should tick down to 5.4% from 5.5% in March. The data should help underpin the dollar’s yield advantage over the euro following recent narrowing.

 

Canadian Employment is expected to rise 15.0k in April (median is for no change) after the 28.7k gain in March. Employment managed to put together a solid total gain in March, but the details were weak. Business confidence remains subdued, suggesting a risk for a very modest jobs gain or outright decline in April that undershoots our estimates.

 

http://analysis.hotforex.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/2015-05-08_1507.png

 

Please, click here to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

 

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

HotForex

 

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFblogNews]

Date : 8th May 2015 (Second Analysis)

 

EURUSD REACTS SLUGGISHLY TO NFP DATA.

 

http://analysis.hotforex.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/EUR2.png

 

EURUSD, Daily

 

U.S. nonfarm payrolls rose 223k in April, with the unemployment rate at 5.4% versus 5.5% previously (revised from 5.5%). That’s the lowest rate since May 2008. But, March’s 126k job gain was revised down to 85k, while February’s 264k was bumped up to 266k. Earnings rose 0.1% after a 0.2% March gain (revised from 0.3%). The workweek was steady at 34.5.

 

The FOMC can’t hike in June after this so-so jobs report, if policymakers are true to their data-dependent mantra. The April numbers support the notion that March weakness was a one-off, while other timely data suggest the Q1 contraction in GDP was partly due to a variety of special circumstances, there’s been little sign yet of a robust bounce-back in Q2. Also, many of the key labour market indicators followed by Yellen shouldn’t give her much confidence that the economy can absorb a tightening.

 

Even though the unemployment rate is at the lowest level since May 2008 and the labour market participation rate edged up slightly, the latter is still only a tick above the record low of 62.7 from March and September. Additionally, earnings growth is tepid, and employment has moderated. Plus, inflation is still not heating up, nor are conditions in the rest of the world conducive for Fed action yet either (by the FOMC’s own assessments). September still seems like the earliest the Fed could start the rate hikes.

 

EURUSD Reaction to the jobs number has been subdued. Even though the last complete 4h candle has closed above the previous candle high the daily low from yesterday has been resisting moves higher. This being a Friday night I don’t expect strong movement to either direction.

 

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

HotForex

 

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFblogNews]

Date : 18th May 2015.

 

TODAY’S CURRENCY MOVERS.

 

http://analysis.hotforex.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/EUR1.png

 

EURUSD, Daily

 

The euro is consolidating in early week trade after logging a three-month high against the dollar at 1.1466 on Friday. EURJPY and other euro crosses have also shown a similar price action. Recent signs of green shoots in economic vitality in the euro area and the associated view that the ECB may be obliged to taper its QE program at some point has supported euro. In addition, an optimistic view on the Greece situation, has helped to maintain the euro’s underpinning. In April Draghi said that the European Central Bank has no plans to curb or curtail its money-printing programme although it expects euro zone economic recovery to broaden and strengthen. Another likely reason for EURUSD strength has been the soft macro data coming from the US. From retail sales to PPI and Consumer Sentiment figures the data have been softer than expected.

 

Since last Tuesday EURUSD has rallied strongly and reached the proximity of 1.1480 resistance. After rising for four days the pair has reacted lower and is at the time of writing attracting buyers at 1.1370 intraday support. This level is also a daily candle high from 6th of May. With support levels being fairly close to the current prices a major correction lower without strong external event is not looking very likely. Therefore, after moves to support levels we should monitor price action for long entry signals. Daily close from 6th May coincides roughly with Friday’s low of 1.1324 and therefore is the nearest support level in the daily chart. Other support levels are at 1.1206 to 1.1232 (a 23.6% Fibonacci level) and 1.1035 to 1.1084 (a 38.6% Fibonacci level). The nearest resistances are 1.1480 and 1.1534. EURUSD is trading close to a resistance level but seems like it might be trying to push higher. However, as the weekly high of 1.1534 is relatively close it is better to trade the long side with a short term expectation only and monitor price action closely.

 

http://analysis.hotforex.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/2015-05-18_1217.png

 

Currency Pairs, Grouped Performance (% Change)

 

Since the weekly close on Friday the 15th May we’ve seen USD and JPY weakness and EUR strength against the other major currencies. GBP has been also gaining against the majors but not as strongly as EUR. Today’s action has been a bit subdued with USD gaining against the others and EUR being strong only against the NZD. The latter has been weak pretty much against all the currencies today. Markets have been quiet this morning as we’ve only seen the early hours trading of the first day of the trading week with not much macro data to move the market.

 

Main Macro Events Today

 

Japan’s Tertiary Index agauge of services fell by 1.0% m/m in March. Contraction was deeper than expected (-0.5%) after the 0.4% m/m gain in February.

 

Japan Industrial Production fell 0.8% m/m in March (consensus -0.3%) while y/y drop was 1.7% after the previous drop of 1.2%.

 

Switzerland Real Retail Sales surprised to the downside in March with a bigger than expected drop of 2.8% (consensus -2.0%).

 

NAHB Housing Market Index: no major change expected from last figures.

 

 

http://analysis.hotforex.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/2015-05-18_0925.png

 

Please, click here to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

 

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

HotForex

 

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFblogNews]

Date : 19th May 2015.

 

TODAY’S CURRENCY MOVERS.

 

http://analysis.hotforex.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/EUR3.png

 

EURUSD, Daily

 

The dollar has retained the perkier tone that established yesterday. EURUSD has been moving lower yesterday and this morning. The move has correlated with a fresh spike in Grexit concerns, though the ECB has stressed that it will not cut ELA to Greek banks should Greece miss an IMF repayment, while Draghi and others at the ECB have been stressing that the QE program will be fully implemented.

 

At the time of writing EURUSD is trading below the 23.6% Fibonacci level and at support created by a pivot candle. I pointed to this level in yesterday as a potential support and suggested we look for the correct price action to find long opportunities. At the time of writing price has not reflected buying interest but 4h Stochastics is deeply oversold and the level that turned price higher the last on May 11th is near. EURUSD is now at key levels. If price turns higher above 1.1131 and today’s bar closes above the rising trendline the daily technical picture maintains its upward momentum. If this doesn’t materialise then the next support level is at 1.1035. Nearest daily resistance level is at 1.1324

 

http://analysis.hotforex.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/2015-05-19_1127.png

 

Currency Pairs, Grouped Performance (% Change)

 

This morning’s theme has been EUR weakness against all the currencies. The biggers movers have been EURNZD, EURJPY, EURCAD and EURUSD. The weakest of the lot, EURNZD, is falling lower from a 50 week SMA after creating a shooting star candle yesterday. EURJPY has moved to a pivot support while EURCAD is currently trading at 50 Fibonacci level (measured from May 5th low to the latest high) and EURUSD is also trading at a pivotal support. Therefore a bounce higher in EUR pairs could be in order today.

 

Main Macro Events Today

 

RBA Meeting’s Minutes: Reserve Bank of Australia said May’s lack of policy guidance will not limit action that they deem appropriate at future meetings. The minutes to the May meeting, where they delivered an as-expected 25 bp cut to 2.0%, reference the February cut as another time where they did not offer guidance on the future policy path. On the Australian dollar, they not surprisingly said further deprecation is likely and necessary, a view that also found its way in to the quarterly Statement on Monetary Policy.

 

RBNZ Inflation Expectations rose slightly in the second quarter remaining below the mid-point of the RBNZ target band. The survey showed business managers expected annual inflation to average 1.32 per cent over the coming year and two-year inflation expectations edged up to 1.85 per cent.

 

UK Consumer Price Index and Core CPI: The headline CPI is expected to remain unchanged at 0.0% y/y in April. That would make it two consecutive months at zero after dipping from 0.3% y/y in February. The on-going impact of lower oil prices and the pound’s assent to seven-year highs against the euro maintains a benign outlook for price pressures. The core CPI is likely to remain at 1.0% y/y, unchanged from the prior month. PPI figures will also be released, where we expect -1.7% y/y figure in output prices.

 

Eurozone Consumer Price index and Core CPI: At the end of April the ECB report highlighted the decline in inflation expectations has been halted and the numbers confirm that deflation risks have diminished, and that headline rates will continue to rise gradually amid stabilising growth and a weaker EUR and as negative base effects from lower energy prices fall out of the equation. No change is expected in either of the indices. CPI is expected come in at 0.0% and Core CPI at 0.6%.

 

German ZEW Economic Sentiment: Eurozone GDP data showed a broadening of growth at the start of the year, but recent confidence indicators have been mixed and this week’s round of May ZEW, PMI and Ifo readings are likely to level off as concerns about the strength of the U.S. recovery, along with the slowing in Chinese growth, are weighing especially on investor sentiment. The headline ZEW reading is expected to contract to median 48.8 from 53.3.

 

US Building Permits are expected at 1,055k in April from 1,042k in March. March of last year was the first time since June 2008 that starts broke above the 1,000k unit pace level before they set a new high in November.

 

US Housing Starts are expected to climb 8.0% to a 1,000k unit pace in April following the 2.0% rebound to 926k in March. This compares to a recent high of 1,098k in July and a low of 521k in April ’09.

 

BOC Governor Poloz Speaks on the topic “The Way Home: Reading the Economic Signs,” with a press conference to follow. The four-month high for the Canadian dollar will not be lost on the Bank, but accompanied by strength in crude oil. And data has not yet contradicted the Bank’s constructive outlook beyond Q1. It has been suggested that the Bank is seriously looking at raising its inflation target.

 

Japan GDP: GDP growth was revised lower to a 1.5% pace (q/q) in the second preliminary Q4 report. No change is expected now and the GDP growth should come in at 1.5%.

 

 

http://analysis.hotforex.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/EC1.png

 

Please, click here to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

 

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

HotForex

 

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFblogNews]

Date : 20th May 2015.

 

TODAY’S CURRENCY MOVERS.

 

http://analysis.hotforex.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/EURUSD-D6.png

 

EURUSD, Daily

 

EURUSD has remained under pressure since trading sideways at support for yesterday afternoon. ECB pledges of accelerated or expanded QE this week have contributed to the correction we’ve seen this week from Friday’s three-month high at 1.1466. There also remains a lack of substantive progress between the Greek government and creditors in bailout negotiations, despite all too familiar optimistic sound-bites from various officials. The ECB considers widening of eligible Greek assets, but also raising the haircut on Greek collateral according to Greek newspaper Kathimerinini. This would maintain the lifeline for Greek banks, as the net effect should be broadly neutral. Time for a deal is running out, but if Tsipras hopes he can circumvent the Eurogroup and strike a deal at the margins of the upcoming summit in Riga, he is likely be mistaken. Creditors continue to insist on the agreed conditions, even though it is clear that they want to keep Greece in the Eurozone, as the impact of the first member exiting the Eurozone is uncertain.

 

After trading a bit too long sideways at support yesterday the lack of upside momentum turned into a downside move this morning. EURUSD has fallen below the supporting rising trendline and to a 38.2% Fibonacci level that also coincides with a daily pivot low from May 5th. Today’s low at the time of writing has been 1.1060, only 8 pips above the March 26th high and now the latest complete 4h candle is a hammer. Therefore it seems that market is placing some significance to the March 26th high as support. At the same time Stochastics are edging close to oversold levels. This suggests that the down move is getting overdone. However, at the same time the move below 1.1131 pivotal support created a resistance level that is relatively close to the current price. This combination of support and resistance levels could lead to price stalling at current levels before the direction is resolved. Nearest support and resistance levels are at 1.1052 and 1.1131. Additionally there is intraday resistance at 1.1158. If these are cleared the next significant daily resistance level is at 1.1324.

 

http://analysis.hotforex.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/2015-05-20_1225.png

 

Currency Pairs, Grouped Performance (% Change)

 

This morning we’ve seen some USD and GBP strength coupled with EUR and AUD weakness but the moves have been relatively small. DXY has run into a resistance at levels that turned it lower in the beginning of May AUDUSD has been the weakest dollar pair while GBP has been able to resist the USD strength and is practically unchanged.

 

Main Macro Events Today

 

Japan Preliminary GDP accelerated to a 2.4% growth pace in Q1 (q/q, saar), much better than expected following a downwardly revised 1.1% pace in Q4 (was +1.5%). Consumption grew at a 1.5% pace in Q1 (q/q, saar) contrary to an expected slowing following the 1.5% rate in Q4.

 

Australian Westpac Consumer Sentiment survey improved to 6.4 per cent in May following an interest rate cut and budget. Improvement from previous number (-3.2%) tells of a significant brightening in the outlook consumers have on their near term financial future. A surprise tax break for small businesses contributed to the positive sentiment.

 

Norway Gross Domestic Product growth was weak. According to seasonally-adjusted figures, gross domestic product for Mainland Norway rose by 0.5 per cent in the 1st quarter of 2015, while the growth in the second half of 2014 has been revised downwards to a growth of 0.4 per cent. For the first time since the 2nd quarter of 2010, there was no growth in employment.

 

Bank of England Minutes to the may MPC meeting showed a unanimous vote to keep policy unchanged. The minutes showed that while there was some uncertainty about the different estimates of spare capacity within the economy, the best collective view was that it amounts to around 0.5% of GDP and that it is “likely to be fully absorbed within a year”. So while the quarterly inflation report last week and the unanimous vote on unchanged rate indicate that rates won’t go up soon the diminishing slack in the economy signals that inflation will likely go up in the medium term and in line with that “all members agreed that it was more likely than not that bank rate would rise over the three-year forecast period”.

 

BoE MPC Vote Hike: BoE minutes to the April MPC meeting showed unanimous votes to maintain the repo rate at 0.5% and the QE total was also unanimously maintained at GBP 375 billion. No change this time either as the MPC voted 9-0 to keep interest rates at 0.5 percent for now.

 

FOMC Minutes.

 

http://analysis.hotforex.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/2015-05-20_1224.png

 

Please, click here to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

 

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

HotForex

 

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFblogNews]

Date : 20th May 2015. (Second Analysis)

 

TWITTER STOCK TRADING AT SUPPORT.

 

http://analysis.hotforex.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/TWTR-W.png

 

TWTR, Weekly

 

On April 28th Twitter quarterly results were leaked before they were officially due out. As the figures were worse than expected, the stock collapsed during the last hour of regular trading session in NYSE. Company had earlier provided guidance that the first quarter revenue would be $456.8 million which was also the figure analysts had put forward. However, twitter reported Q1 revenue of $436 million and thus missed the expectations and its own guidance. This and the lacklustre growth in the user base were the reasons for an 18% drop in share price on April 28th. At the time of writing TWTR is trading near $37, almost 30% lower than this year’s highest print.

 

The stock is therefore trading at a steep discount compared to the highest prices paid this year and even to the 200 day SMA at $44.74. This discount is excessive in the light of the projected revenue decline for this year. Twitter is expected to generate revenue of $2.17 to 2.27 billion instead of the market expectation of $2.37 billion. We are therefore talking about at most a 8.43% revenue decline while the stock is trading over 16% below the long term (200 days) average price and 30% below the highest prices paid for the year. Also, the company is expected to have a higher revenue growth in 2015 than Facebook and LinkedIn as revenues are expected to grow by 60% this year. Therefore it is likely that the stock is on institutional value buy list at the current levels and this should provide an opportunity for us as well.

 

Technically TWTR is now trading relatively close to December 2014 lows with weekly Stochastics firmly in the oversold territory. The December low of 34.62 is in the middle of the lower Bollinger bands (1.5 stdv at 36.29 and 2 stdv at 33.50). This suggests that the stock is trading right above support and the downside is therefore limited while the line of least resistance is to the upside. Nearest support and resistance levels are at 36.07 (January low) and 45.13 (March 9th low).

 

http://analysis.hotforex.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/TWTR-D.png

 

TWTR, Daily

 

Stochastics Oscillator has been moving slightly higher as price moves sideways between 36.90 support and 38.20 resistance. The next support at 36.52 was defined as price created a hammer candle on May 6th. The next significant resistance level after 38.20 is the 50% Fibonacci level that coincides with the March 9th low at 45.13 (see the weekly chart).

 

 

http://analysis.hotforex.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/TWTR-240.png

 

TWTR, 240 min

 

Bollinger bands have been narrowing which is typical before a breakout happens. At the time of writing Oscillators (Stochastics, RSI and MFI) are pointing higher but as the upper Bollinger bands acted as a resistance for a rally attempt yesterday and today the stock might move slightly lower before it’s ready to break above the resistance and advance.

 

Conclusion

 

Technically TWTR stock is trading at deep discount to long term averages and close to levels that have been able to turn price higher in the past. Twitter is also expected to see healthy revenue growth that even exceeds expected growth for Facebook and LinkedIn. This combined with the technical picture makes TWTR an interesting stock for professional value investors. At the moment TWTR does not represent a trading opportunity but rather is a stock that has good medium to long term potential. When price has dropped massively market participants usually wait until the dust settles before they start buying. Also, when institutions buy a stock they try to accumulate positions without driving the price higher. That’s likely the reason for the stock has been moving sideways over the last week and it could take a little while before this process is over and the stock is ready to move higher. However, when it does there will be opportunities for small investors and traders alike. I look for series of higher lows to indicate that the institutional accumulation process is nearing completion. Alternatively a fast move close to the 34.62 support would be a reason to look for lower time frame buy signals (as per my Live Analysis Webinars). My Target 1 is at $43.90 (50 week SMA) and Target 2 at $49.80. Should the stock start creating a series of lower highs and keep breaking supports the technical picture would deteriorate and this analysis would need to be revaluated.

 

 

 

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

HotForex

 

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFblogNews]

Date : 21st May 2015.

 

TODAY’S CURRENCY MOVERS.

 

http://analysis.hotforex.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/EURUSD-D7.png

 

EURUSD, Daily

 

The FOMC minutes took wind out of the dollar’s sails yesterday, though in confirming that most members were not thinking of hiking in June the minutes were near expectations. Minutes to April 28, 29 policy meeting indicated a June rate hike was unlikely and probably won’t have sufficient data to confirm that conditions for raising rates are in place. Participants had a wide range of views on timing of rate lift-off due to uncertainties over strength of the US economy after Q1 weakness. Data dependency was again stressed with rate decisions to be made on meeting-to-meeting basis.

 

I wrote yesterday that the combination of support and resistance levels (nearby) could lead to price stalling at current levels before direction resolved. This is exactly what happened yesterday and over the Asian session. EURUSD has been moving sideways between low of 1.1060 and high of 1.1160. As nothing much has happened overnight yesterday’s analysis and support and resistance levels are still valid (nearest support and resistance levels 1.1052 and 1.1131). Price moving sideways confirmed the indication that the down move was overdone but there are still headwinds to EURUSD moving higher: the move below 1.1131 pivotal support created a resistance level that is relatively close to the current price. This same resistance coincides with a support level in the US Dollar Index. As the latest complete 4h candle closed above 1.1146 the probabilities of EURUSD moving higher have now increased but the region of intraday resistance at 1.1158 has still proven to be a challenge. The next significant daily resistance level is at 1.1324.

 

http://analysis.hotforex.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/2015-05-21_1215.png

 

Currency Pairs, Grouped Performance (% Change)

 

GBP has been the strongest currency today and the GBPUSD the performing pair. The shooting star candle in DXY from yesterday and the GBPUSD at support higher from a support yesterday support the bullish sentiment for GBP against the USD. US Dollar has been weak across the board and the DXY moving below the low of yesterday’s shooting star candle low promises more strength to EURUSD, GBPUSD, AUDUSD and NZDUSD (and more weakness to USDCAD, USDCHF and USDJPY). Both AUDUSD and NZDUSD are trading above a pivotal support and latter at weekly Bollinger Bands. USDCAD is trading at upper daily Bollinger Bands while USDJPY is reacting lower from March resistance. USDJPY has some previous resistances that it has broken and could therefore find support at levels nearby.

 

Main Macro Events Today

 

Australian Consumer Inflation Expectation accelerated to a 2.4% growth pace in Q1 (q/q, saar), much better than expected following a downwardly revised 1.1% pace in Q4 (was +1.5%). Consumption grew at a 1.5% pace in Q1 (q/q, saar) contrary to an expected slowing following the 1.5% rate in Q4.

 

Australian Westpac Consumer Sentiment rose slightly to 3.6% from the earlier 3.4%. This increase is in line with the confidence boost measured yesterday by the Westpac Consumer Sentiment index as increased economic activity usually also leads to higher prices.

 

Chinese Manufacturing PMI survey showed continuing weakness in China. This brings into focus the widespread expectations that the Chinese authorities would act on any signs of a serious downturn limited the market reaction. The number was a thirteen month low.

 

German Manufacturing PMI fell back more than anticipated, with the manufacturing PMI dropping to 51.4 from 52.1 and the services reading to 52.9 from 54.0. Reading remains firmly above the 50 mark, but the weaker than expected numbers tie in with a marked drop in the ZEW and signal a slowdown in growth momentum.

 

Eurozone Manufacturing PMI figures were mixed, with the manufacturing reading unexpectedly rising to 52.3 from 52.0, interestingly on the back of a rise in the French reading, while the German number fell back. The Eurozone services PMI meanwhile disappointed and dropped to 53.3 from 54.1, leaving the composite at 53.4, down from 53.9 in the previous month.

 

UK Retail Sales surprised positively and came in at 4.7% instead of expected 3.8%. Retail sales were expected to ease again after this year’s high in February was followed a lower reading in March.

 

Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey should improve to 8.0 in May after 7.5 in April.

 

US Unemployment Claims: it is expected that initial jobless claims rose to 271k last week from 264k the preceding week when the claims figure hit the lowest level in nearly 15 years.

 

http://analysis.hotforex.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/2015-05-21_1156.png

 

Please, click here to access the full HotForex Economic calendar. (https://www.hotforex.com/en/trading-tools/economic-calendar.html)

 

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

HotForex

 

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFblogNews]

Date : 21st May 2015.(Second Analysis)

 

SILVER CLOSE COMPLETION OF A BOTTOMING PROCESS.

 

http://analysis.hotforex.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/Silver-W.png

 

Silver, Weekly

 

Silver has now broken out of the bear channel. The breakout was preceded by a consolidation that started in December 2014 and lead to market creating higher lows at the weekly Bollinger bands. Currently Silver is trading relatively close to the upper Bollinger bands and has reacted lower from them and 50 week SMA. The 38.2% Fibonacci level that coincides roughly with weekly closing high from March has supported price this week. Support levels: 16.97, 16.36 and 15.55. Resistance levels: 17.77 and 18.50.

 

http://analysis.hotforex.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/Silver-D.png

 

Silver, Daily

 

The move lower from the 17.77 resistance was a strong one. This one day move eroded more than three day’s gains. This suggests that there could be more downside volatility in store. The area from 16.37 to 16.60 looks interesting as a support level and a 50% Fibonacci level coincide with a sideways consolidation and an apex of a triangle formation. This area also coincides with the descending trendline that is now likely to provide support after resisting price moves higher earlier. Support levels: 16.88, 16.60 to 16.37 and 15.85. Resistance levels: 17.48 and 17.77.

 

http://analysis.hotforex.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/Silver-240.png

 

Silver, 240 min

 

Lately the price of Silver has been finding support at 50 period SMA and the region of 17.00 dollars but the higher time frame picture hints the downside is not yet over and the best buy levels should therefore be at lower levels. The 16.60 level used to resist moves higher and Silver should therefore attract buyers if price moves to the level. At the time of writing Stochastics indicator is rolling over and suggests the downside momentum is resuming.

 

Conclusion The long term picture is positive with Silver now trading above the descending trend channel. This market has consolidated, created higher weekly lows and now broken above the down trendline. Such action indicates that the bottoming formation is near its completion. Short term price is still relatively close to the upper end of the range and weekly Bollinger bands. This suggests that the best low risk buy opportunities are lower. I look for buy signals in the region of 16.37 to 16.60 where several technical factors come together. My targets for short term trades from the above mention region are 17.00 (T1), 17.48 (T2) and 18.00 (T3).

 

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

HotForex

 

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFblogNews]

Date : 22nd May 2015.

 

TODAY’S CURRENCY MOVERS.

 

http://analysis.hotforex.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/EUR4.png

 

EURUSD, Daily

 

Yesterday’s weaker than expected existing home sales in US and a dip in the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing index supported forecasts for only tepid pick up in Q2 growth after a very weak Q1. The May Philadelphia Fed Survey disappointed. The figure came in at 6.7 instead of 8.0 expected by the analyst consensus. This increased expectations that the Federal Reserve will maintain its current dovish stance.

 

EURUSD has been trading in the low-to-mid 1.11s, above Wednesday’s 1.1060 low. There was a lack of substantive progress at the latest summit in Riga between the Greek government and creditors in bailout negotiations. The on-going Grexit uncertainty might have been the reason the euro’s upside has been curtailed, while the May German IFO today should affirm the slowing in growth momentum that was seen in the ZEW and PMI surveys. ECB’s Draghi and BoE’s Carney are set to speak at an ECB conference on central banking in Portugal and today’s European data calendar is unlikely to give markets any reason to cheer. Another speaker worthy of mention is the Fed Chair Janet Yellen speaking later on today.

 

The resistance area created by the May 11th pivotal low has been holding EURUSD back but yesterday’s daily low was higher than the previous day’s low. This with the fact that price has moved higher from today’s open suggests modest bullishness on EURUSD. Daily bar lows also seem to honour a trendline drawn from April low. Stochastics are oversold and the lower Bollinger bands are catching up with the price. US Dollar index is looking weak as it’s trading below the shooting star candle lows from day before yesterday. Nearest support and resistance levels: 1.1052 and 1.1324.

 

http://analysis.hotforex.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/2015-05-22_1035.png

 

Currency Pairs, Grouped Performance (% Change)

 

Modest EUR strength and USD and GBP weakness is dominating the Currency Movers charts today. AUD, NZD and JPY performance has been mixed. EURJPY, EURAUD, EURCAD and EURNZD are reacting higher from intraday supports and should EUR make a move today, these pairs are likely to follow.

 

Main Macro Events Today

 

German Gross Domestic Product (Q1) growth slowed to 0.3% q/q as expected, a significant decrease from the fourth quarter last year which was 0.7%. Still, taken the two quarters together, the underlying trend is robust. The very strong labour market, the rising wage growth and the boost to real disposable income from lower oil prices reinforced Q1.

 

US Consumer Price Index (YoY) is expected to remain unchanged, while the core index, which excludes food and energy products, is expected to rise to 1.7%, 0.1% lower compared to previous year’s result.

 

Chinese Manufacturing PMI (YoY) is expected to expand to 1.0% in April, 0.2% lower compared to the previous month. It is seen rising 0.1% on a monthly comparable basis in April after the expansion of 0.7% m/m in March and 0.9% m/m in February.

 

http://analysis.hotforex.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/2015-05-22_1031.png

 

Please, click here to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

 

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

HotForex

 

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFblogNews]

Date : 25th May 2015.

 

USDJPY TRADING NEAR MARCH HIGH.

 

http://analysis.hotforex.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/USDJPY-Weekly.png

 

USDJPY Weekly

 

USDJPY has been moving side ways since the beginning of December 2014. The deepest correction has the retracement to 38.2% Fibonacci level in mid-December and was followed by another in January that attracted buyers just above the previous low. Since then price has challenged the previous high once and after failing to penetrate the resistance it created a higher low. Now the pair has yet again moved to the upper weekly Bollinger Bands. At the same time we have the US Dollar Index at a level that resisted moves higher in March this year.

 

USD has been relatively strong against the JPY throughout period it has been correcting against the other currencies and as the weekly lows have been higher with the latest CPI number from States surprising to the upside it could well be that the upper end of this range will eventually give in. At the end of the day it is more likely that the US Fed will hike the rates before the Japanese central bank which could even come up with yet another round of stimulus.

 

http://analysis.hotforex.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/USDJPY-daily.png

 

USDJPY Daily

 

Last week’s rally lifted USDJPY to the upper end of the range that has limited the pair’s movements since the end of the last year. Stochastics is overbought and price is reacting lower after moving above the upper daily Bollinger Band and also very close to the March high. If today’s daily candle closes to current levels or lower price has created a bearish shooting star candle. Stochastics is about to move below its three day moving average and could give a bearish signal should the weakness continue. Nearest support and resistance levels are 120.84 to 120.50 and 122.02.

 

http://analysis.hotforex.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/USDJPY-240min.png

 

USDJPY 240 min

 

The pair fell lower after hitting a historical resistance at 121.68 and has since found support at a minor support level that coincides with a high from Wednesday last week. This lack of upside momentum and a correction lower has eased the overbought condition in this timeframe and brought the oscillators lower. The nearest more significant support area (120.83 – 120.61) is currently near the lower Bollinger Bands and 38.2% Fibonacci level while the next major resistance is at 122.02.

 

Conclusion

 

Price is trading close to a longer term resistance and we could see market creating an exhaustion candle (shooting star). Today’s price action however might not be that important as many significant markets have been on holiday. Whenever a market is trading close to a resistance one should be looking for shorting opportunities. This market is trading near its resistance levels and therefore I would only initiate long positions after a correction to a significant support. Due to divergent inflation expectations and relatively strong US economy the dollar yen pair should eventually move higher but as usual a low risk entry would be preferable.Taking advantage of corrections to significant support levels such as the range created by Friday’s low at 120.61 and 1.5 stdv Bollinger Bands at 120.83 would be a preferable strategy to buying close to a resistance. Look for confirming price action at the key levels. If aforementioned support level fails to attract buyers assumptions in this analysis need to be re-evaluated.

 

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

HotForex

 

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFblogNews]

Date : 26th May 2015.

 

TODAY’S CURRENCY MOVERS.

 

http://analysis.hotforex.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/EURUSD-daily.png

 

EURUSD, Daily

 

Yesterday the Fed Vice Chairman Fisher commented to the Reuters that he sees rates gradually rising to reach 3.25-4.00% by 2018. He said that the start of the tightening cycle would be determined by data, not a date. And that it is misleading to give so much importance to the Fed’s first rate hike. As the VC Fisher pointed out the rate hikes depend on the data, which gives the Fed a lot of leeway in determining the future interest rates policy.

 

Last Friday’s CPI surprise from US lifted the dollar index higher and sent the EURUSD lower. My view has been that with Fed being dovish EURUSD having a major correction without an external event would be unlikely. Now such an event has occurred and the market psychology has once again changed to favour the dollar. But this could change. As we have seen the mood swings in this market are constant and can change very quickly. The real test of this newly found readiness to bid for the USD comes when EURUSD hits the vicinity of March and April lows.

 

After the better than expected CPI figure on Friday pushed EURUSD through the support levels the pair has been drifting lower and crossed below the 50 day MA and lower Bollinger Bands. EURUSD has declined for six days without a decent rally higher and Stochastics is deeply oversold. That should mean that this downtrend is getting closer to a point where it is vulnerable to corrective rallies. Should there be a rally to the previous support area (1.1084 to 1.1131) it would make sense to look for shorting signals in that range. The 1.1131 resistance is a weekly low from two weeks ago and 1.1084 is a 38.2% Fibonacci level. The next support level is a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at 1.0845 coinciding with daily highs from April. This could be a reasonable target for intraday short trades.

 

http://analysis.hotforex.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/2015-05-26_1006.png

 

Currency Pairs, Grouped Performance (% Change)

 

USD strength with EUR and JPY Weakness are the clear themes this morning. GBPUSD has created a lower high in daily and is now breaking below a support at 1.5447. Next major support area: 1.5046 to 1.5193. USDJPY pushed higher through the resistances and is now trading above the March high of 1.2202. GBPJPY is trading close to a resistance created by December 2014 high but has found support from a daily sideways range and reacted higher.

 

Main Macro Events Today

 

US Durable Goods Orders (Apr) is expected down to -0.5% with shipments growing by 0.5% and inventories by 0.2%, an indication that more and more inventory is held out of the market.

 

US New Home Sales (MoM) (Apr) is seen rising by 2.9% to 495K compared to previous month’s results which was at 481K. Although the result is higher from March’s results, it is lower by 8.83% in relation to February’s result.

 

US Consumer Confidence (May) is expected to fall to 93.0 from 95.2 in April, a decrease of 2.36%. Other confidence indicators have declined in May, and Consumer Confidence is more likely to follow them.

 

http://analysis.hotforex.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/2015-05-26_0953.png

 

Please, click here to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

 

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

HotForex

 

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFblogNews]

Date : 26th May 2015. (Second Analysis)

 

GOLD AT 50 DAY SMA.

 

http://analysis.hotforex.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/Gold-W.png

 

Gold, Weekly

 

As USD has rallied higher over the last few days the price of Gold (in dollar terms) has moved lower. The high of the last week was above a resistance level at 1224.50 at a 50 week moving average. Now price is approaching a 50% Fibonacci retracement level at 1187. The 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at 1176.40 is relatively close to a weekly pivot low from April and coincides with daily Bollinger bands thus highlighting a level that has in the past turned price higher. However, before price can get that far there are support levels for bears to deal with. These support levels are visible at daily and 4h charts. In terms of higher time analysis Gold is in a sideways range with an upside bias as it has been able to make higher lows and (on a closing basis) a higher high. However, it seems to me that the resistance at 1224.50 to 1232 or so will need some work and real commitment from the bulls before it can be penetrated.

 

http://analysis.hotforex.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/Gold-D.png

 

Gold Daily,

 

Price has broken below a support (now resistance) at 1200.80 and has fallen to (and slightly under) the 50 day SMA. This level is the closing high (highest close) of sideways move from the beginning of May. Stochastics are getting oversold and price is trading at a level that used to be a resistance. Nearest support and resistance levels are 1193.3 and 1200.80. The next important S&R levels after these are at 1177.90 and 1214.60.

 

http://analysis.hotforex.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/Gold-240.png

 

Gold, 240 min

 

Trendline analysis in four chart reveals how Gold is trading at descending channel bottom that coincides with a range created by a 4h bar high (also a daily high) from May 12th and daily low from May 13th. Stochastics is overbought and the four hour bar could be creating a small pin bar indicating that price could reverse and move higher from here. Also, this price action takes place outside the lower Bollinger Bands adding to the oversold indication. Fibonacci levels coincide with potential resistance levels at 1202, 1207.8 and 1212.50. The region of 1207.80 coincides with the descending price channel and could act as a limit to potential upside moves.

 

Conclusion

 

Gold is in a sideways range with an upside bias as it has been able to make higher weekly lows and (on a closing basis) a higher high. However, it seems to me that the resistance at 1224.50 to 1232 or so will need some work and real commitment from the bulls before it can be penetrated. For short term traders Gold is at levels it could stage a small rally from. After correcting lower earlier today Gold has reached a level that has support in both daily and 4h time frames. With Stochastics oversold in both timeframes and market showing signs of downside momentum waning this level could cause the price of Gold to rally. Should there be appropriate long entry signals to justify buying at these levels, the Fibonacci levels in 4h chart could provide us with targets: T1 at 1202, T2 at 1207 and T3 at 1212. The region of 1207.80 coincides with the descending price channel and could act as an upper limit to potential upside moves. Follow the intraday charts to decide whether price action confirms the idea.

 

Janne Muta

 

Chief Market Analyst

 

HotForex

 

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFblogNews]

Date : 27th May 2015.

 

TODAY’S CURRENCY MOVERS.

 

EURUSD, Daily

 

Yesterday’s US reports revealed small upside surprises. The durable goods figures for equipment beat estimates modestly despite a 0.5% April headline orders drop, while new home sales rose 6.8% in April to partly reverse a March plunge. The GDP growth outlook remains unchanged at 2.5% in Q2. We saw a May consumer confidence rise to 95.4 that defied declines in all other confidence surveys for the month, and the Richmond Fed index bounced as expected to 1 from -3. Only the Dallas Fed index disappointed, with a drop to a -20.8 six-year low from -16.0 in April. Additionally we had Richmond Fed’s Lacker speaking yesterday. He likes June as a “good time to begin considering raising rates,” suggesting that weak Q1 data is transitory and inflation is firming again after oil rebounds from its slide. Lacker is a known hawk in the FOMC.

 

EURUSD has recouped the 1.0900 level during Asian trade after leaving a one-month low at 1.0863 yesterday. The pair has fallen some 4% in seven of the last eight trading days after making a three-month peak. I suggested yesterday that the support at 1.0845 could work as a target for intraday trades as 61.8% Fibonacci level coincides with daily highs in April. Market turning higher slightly above this level suggests that others are eyeing the same level. Yesterday’s close was outside the lower 2 stdv Bollinger Band and should today’s close be inside the band probabilities of price rallying higher increase. The next significant resistance area is at 1.1084 to 1.1131.

 

http://analysis.hotforex.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/2015-05-27_12161.png

 

Currency Pairs, Grouped Performance (% Change)

 

Apart from movements in CHF the price action in other currencies has been relatively small. Money has been moving into CHF from other major currencies and it is up by 40 to 50 basis points or more against all the other currencies except EUR. CHF has been especially strong against the JPY, up by over 0.75% at the time of writing. Euro’s relative strength against CHF adds to the EUR strength we are seeing against the USD and other majors. There is consistent JPY weakness even though the movements have most of the morning been subdued. An exception to this is CHFJPY. USD performance is a bit mixed after hitting a historical resistance level in DXY. From this point of view it’s interesting that EURUSD is close to a support, USDCAD is trading at resistance and NZDUSD close to a weekly support. Also USDCHF is reacting lower from a combination of historical resistance and upper Bollinger bands together with a 50 day SMA.

 

Main Macro Events Today

 

German Gfk Consumer Confidence Survey (Jun) rose to 10.2 from 10.1. Economic confidence is improving, as is the willingness to buy, despite the fact that income expectations eased slightly. This is a confirmation that the German recovery remains on track.

 

Japan Retail Trade (YoY) is expected to increase by 5.4% in April. Previous result dropped 9.7% y/y in March from a revised -1.7% y/y in February (was -1.8% y/y previously). Large retailers saw a 13.0% y/y plunge after a 1.3% February gain. However, we have to take into account that sales surged in March 2014 ahead of the April tax hike.

 

http://analysis.hotforex.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/2015-05-27_1205.png

 

Please, click here to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

 

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

HotForex

 

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFblogNews]

Date : 27th May 2015. (Second Analysis)

 

EURAUD UP AFTER A HAMMER CANDLE YESTERDAY.

 

http://analysis.hotforex.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/EURAUD-W.png

 

EURAUD, Weekly

 

EURAUD is moving sideways in wide range with support area between weekly lows at 1.3680 and 1.3912 while upper end is limited by the 50 week SMA and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement roughly coinciding. The nearest weekly high at 1.4277 is almost at level with the 38.2% Fib level at 1.4317 while the previous weekly pivotal highs coincide with the 50 week SMA. As 50 week SMA is pointing down this sideways market has some long term downward tendency. The lower weekly highs contribute to this picture but the fact that the weekly lows have been somewhat equal in March and April points to weakness in downside momentum. The latest weekly pivot low (at 1.3912) being so much higher than the previous lows is a positive indication.

 

http://analysis.hotforex.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/EURAUD-D.png

 

EURAUD, Daily

 

In the daily picture EURAUD is moving higher from the proximity of a support level created by a sideways move in April this year. Yesterday’s candle was a hammer that is a bullish signal (points to higher prices) and now Stochastics is giving a positive signal by crossing above the signal line. Hammer candle also created a higher low which supports the bullish daily picture. There are no major daily resistance levels nearby while the first daily candle high that could cause the price to stall is at 1.4197. Above this are the upper Bollinger Bands and then the weekly highs. Nearest support levels are at 1.3950 and 1.3912.

 

http://analysis.hotforex.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/EURAUD-240.png

 

EURAUD, 240 min

 

In 4h timeframe the recent price move took EURAUD to upper Bollinger Bands and close to a 4h pivot candle low at 1.4117. Not so far from the level is also a 50% Fibonacci level (at 1.4112 measured from the May 22nd high to the recent low of 1.3950). Over the last two four hour candles price has retraced back to a recent pivot and found buyers between 38.2% and 50% Fibonacci levels (measured from yesterday’s low to today’s high). The reaction we have seen from this level is healthy and supports the positive picture in the daily time frame. The pair is close to its recent 4h range highs as also reflected in Stochastics being at overbought threshold. At the time of writing the reaction from support has been strong and has coincided with the upsurge in EURUSD from the region of support I suggested in my Currency Movers Report. If the EURUSD strength continues EURAUD is likely to move higher as well.

 

Conclusion

 

The long term picture (weekly) is range bound which gives opportunities for swing traders at the range edges. Now that the daily picture has indications that buyers could be taking price higher (higher low and a hammer candle with Stochastics pointing higher) we look for price action based buy signals when there are retracements to intraday support levels. The daily highs are natural target levels with first one being at 1.4197 and the next at 1.4277. A break into new highs (above 1.4115) and a daily close above yesterday’s high at 1.4092 would be further confirmations of the bullish tendency seen in the daily chart. A failure to move above these levels accompanied with downward intraday trends would negate the positive picture.

 

Janne Muta

 

Chief Market Analyst

 

HotForex

 

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFblogNews]

Date : 28th May 2015.

 

TODAY’S CURRENCY MOVERS.

 

http://analysis.hotforex.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/eur.png

 

EURUSD, Daily

 

EU says that further progress is needed in Greece talks. Yet again Greek officials are suggesting a quick deal with creditors, although today, it admittedly sounded more like this was just what Greek wants rather than a done deal. By contrast, creditors remain pessimistic and an EU spokeswoman said there are still issues that need to be resolved, with further progress needed in talks that will continue in coming days. Varoufakis calls for Greek debt restructuring, while saying that the IMF has a very dark history over the past 20-25 years. A Greek government spokesman meanwhile said the country is not planning to bundle its IMF repayments and aims to have a deal by Sunday. She also said that she is working on a common document with creditors. Creditors meanwhile continue to highlight that there are still considerable differences and Varoufakis’ comments on the IMF highlight that his tone hasn’t softened. This obviously is not helping. Neither are the conflicting messages coming out of Greece and it should be clear by now that only when creditor officials announce that a deal is imminent we can actually believe it. Greek officials seem to equate their hope for a quick deal, with actual progress. At the same time ECB’s Nowotny has commented the wider Eurozone economy by saying that there is no “currency war” in a historical range, but he admitted that the ECBs quantitative easing program has helped the Eurozone economy by weakening the EUR. However, he also warned that widespread negative yields can’t be normal.

 

We have seen some short term bullish momentum since yesterday in EURUSD and need to now have some follow-through (or more consolidation) to avoid further decline. At the time of writing EURUSD is trading inside yesterday’s pin bar range after it fell back from 1.0950 where it was close to the 50% Fibonacci level and Monday’s low. After yesterday’s reaction higher from support level and a close inside the lower Bollinger band the likelihood of price turning higher has increased. However, I would now like to see price creating a higher low and close above yesterday’s high to further support the reversal indication. This would suggest that price could move through the moving average resistance and to next resistance where previous support and 38.2% Fibonacci levels coincide. EURUSD is now approaching the levels that attracted buyers yesterday. Intraday price action at these levels is of high importance as we are looking for indications on markets’ collective opinion of this potential momentum reversal. Should the current support fail, the next significant daily support level is at 1.0660.

 

http://analysis.hotforex.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/2015-05-28_1616.png

 

Currency Pairs, Grouped Performance (% Change)

 

Today’s clear trend is the AUD and NZD weakness. When compared to the USD currencies more or less have had the same percentage change (± 40 basis points) except AUD and NZD that have fallen 122 and 155 basis points respectively against the USD. Apart from the slight USD strength today the Euro and CHF have had some strength against the other currencies while GBP and JPY have had a mixed performance. Again, it’s the AUD and NZD weakness that have moved EURAUD and EURNZD more than other EUR pairs.

 

Main Macro Events Today

 

UK Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) Preliminary Q1 GDP came in sub-expectations at +0.3% q/q, half the median forecast and down from the 0.6% growth of Q4. Second estimation was expected at 0.4%, but the actual result was equal to previous 0.3%.

 

US Initial Jobless Claims came in higher than expected. The 7k initial claims rise to 282k in the fourth week of May extends the 11k bounce to 275k (was 274k) in the BLS survey, as claims continue to reverse the tightness in the prior three readings that started with a 262k cycle-low at the end of April. Claims are still tight versus pre-May levels however, and are displaying a cyclical downtrend that became obscured in early-April by a temporary spike around the Easter holiday period.

 

US Pending Home Sales (MoM) is expected to increase by 0.9% in April compared to previous result 1.1% in March. This is a leading indicator of the housing market in the US and the economy as a whole.

 

Japan National CPI Ex-Fresh Food (YoY) is expected to increase by 0.2% in April. An increase is expected after Core CPI improved to a 2.2% y/y pace in March from 2.0% y/y pace in February and 2.2% y/y in January. But the trend deceleration should be worrying policymakers.

 

http://analysis.hotforex.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/2015-05-28_1613.png

 

Please, click here to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

 

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

HotForex

 

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFblogNews]

Date : 29th May 2015.

 

TODAY’S CURRENCY MOVERS.

 

http://analysis.hotforex.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/eur1.png

 

EURUSD, Daily

 

According to yesterday’s release US Initial jobless claims rose 7k to 282k (median 271k) for the week-ended May 23 from 275k (was 274k). Continuing claims rose to 2,222 from 2,211k for the week-ended May 16. This is near levels last seen in 2006. This weeks spike and the recent volatility is likely due to seasonal factors surrounding the Easter holiday.

 

The Preliminary annualized Gross Domestic Product data out today is expected to be revised to -0.9% from 0.2% in the release, following 2.2% growth in Q4. This report will give us more give more insights regarding US economy and its improvement. Greece continues to hang over the Eurozone, with wider market sentiment and hopes for a deal by the end of the month quickly fading. Yesterday’s deal-no deal comments by Greece and its creditors were more extreme than usual. It seems Tsipras was forced to express reassuring and optimistic comments to prevent panic and further deposit outflows ahead of the upcoming pension and wage payments. However, these statements are in conflict with creditor officials, highlighting that Greece is increasingly desperate for a quick deal since the extra time is over.

 

Yesterday the pair moved up to 1.0965 resistance level where the 50-day SMA coincides with the 50% Fibonacci retracement and closed above previous day’s high. Declining tops and bottoms form a downtrend and as we have now seen the expected upside reaction from 1.0848 support (coinciding with 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level drawn from the March 13th low to the May high) the chances have improved that the recent downward trend has reversed. Today’s price action and upside momentum have been subdued. The 1.1093 support at pivot candle high was enough to reverse an intraday down move today but there has not been a decisive move above yesterday’s high. If there is no strong decline today the weekly candle is will create a bullish pin bar. In this context the 50 day SMA is a minor resistance and we should see price moving higher next week. The intraday price action after the US GDP figures today (12:30 GMT) should give us more indications on for things to come.

 

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Currency Pairs, Grouped Performance (% Change)

 

Today’s intra-day performance shows clearly the NZD weakness against all major currencies with moves extending up to approximately 70 basis points. AUDNZD has moved higher after a hammer candle indicated further upward momentum but has now hit a resistance at early may range low. NZDUSD has dropped below an important weekly support level. JPY is showing some varying strength against all major currencies, with CHFJPY being an exception and NZDJPY moving strongly, down by 75 basis points and at lower Bollinger Bands at the time of writing. GBP has been weak while USD has had a mixed performance.

 

Main Macro Events Today

 

US Gross Domestic Product (Q1) is expected to be revised to -0.9% from 0.2% in the release, following 2.2% growth in Q4, expecting to give more insights regarding US economy and its improvement. Forecast risk: downward, given outsized revisions in source data for trade and inventories. Market risk: downward, as a weaker report could impact the already-fragile Fed rate hike timing.

 

Canada Gross Domestic Product is expected to increase by 0.2% in April at a moderate pace from the previous result that kept the percentage unchanged. The Q1 GDP report may be anti-climactic as anything between +0.5% to -0.5% will roughly match the BoC’s flat estimate. The key to the policy outlook remains, of course, what happens following the oil shock.

 

US Chicago purchasing managers’ Index is expected to come in at 53. Chicago PMI rose 6.0 points to 52.3 in April, better than expected, after increasing 0.5 points to 46.3 in March as the index continues to correct from the 13.6 point plunge in February to 45.8 (which was the weakest reading since July 2009). Both employment and new orders increased, and inventories declined. Prices paid also fell. The data are consistent with the Fed’s view that some of the weakness in Q1 was due to temporary factors.

 

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Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

HotForex

 

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFblogNews]

Date : 29th May 2015. (Second Analysis)

 

US Q1 GDP GROWTH REVISED LOWER TO -0.7%.

 

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The United States’ Q1 GDP growth was revised lower to -0.7% pace versus a 0.2% pace in the Advance report. It compares to a 2.2% clip from Q4. For the latest report, consumption was nudged lower to 1.8% versus 1.9% previously, and is down from a 4.4% Q4 rate. Fixed investment was bumped up to -1.3% versus -2.5% previously. This was due to a 2.8% drop in nonresidential activity, versus -3.4% previously, as structures fall 20.8% compared to -23.1% (in large part due to shrinking rig counts in the oil industry).

 

Residential construction was boosted to a 5.0% pace from the prior 1.3%. Government consumption was revised lower to -1.1% from -0.8%. Inventories added $15.0 bln, have of the original $30.3 bln contribution. Net exports subtracted $77.0 bln versus -$50.7 bln. The chain price index was steady at -0.1% previously, and is down from Q4's 0.1% and Q3's 1.4% rate. The core rate posted a 0.8% rate from 0.9% previously, and versus 1.1% in Q4 and 1.4% in Q3.

 

The US GDP figure was slightly better than expected and almost in line with analyst expectations. It therefore didn’t have a significant immediate impact on USD. The only dollar pair moving more strongly after the announcement is the USDCAD as the Canadian GDP number came out at the same time and was a disappointment. USDCAD is up by 0.66% at the time of writing and approaching yesterday’s shooting star high at 1.2538. Today’s high at the time of writing: 1.2518. Fibonacci levels in the above chart point to potential support levels with 38.2% coinciding with 50 day SMA and 50% with a sideways move from mid-may. The US Dollar Index (DXY) is still trading at intraday support created by lower Bollinger Bands that have supported the index since yesterday.

 

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

HotForex

 

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.

[HFblogNews]

Date : 1st June 2015.

 

CURRENCY MOVERS OF 1st June 2015.

 

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EURUSD, Daily

 

The Q1 GDP growth figure from last Friday wasn’t quite as weak as the median suggested, falling “only” 0.7%. But, the composition of that report, along with recent data, doesn’t indicate Q2 is likely to bounce sharply. Also, it’s still not clear how much of this sluggishness can be blamed on “transitory” factors. Nevertheless, a Fed rate hike in September is still in the cards, as indicated by the Median forecast. Fedspeak of late, even from the doves, has suggested policymakers want to start the normalization process. But will that be possible as soon as next quarter? The FOMC will need to see stronger data over the next couple of months to make lift-off credible.

 

According to reports, the Greek Prime Minister Tsipras is in talks with Merkel and Hollande. With the end of May deadline gone Mr Tsipras once again hopes to bypass the negotiations with the Brussels group and puts his hopes on talks with Merkel and Hollande. The three had a reportedly “constructive” telephone conversation yesterday and Merkel and Hollande are set to meet today. Tsipras meanwhile blamed the lack of progress on the “absurd” proposals by certain institutions, which ignore recent democratic decisions in Greece. In an article for France’s Le Monde, he said that the plans for the pension system are not suitable for a civilized country while warning that it would be a bit mistake to think that finding a solution was just a Greek issue and that it is important for the whole of Europe. Not comments that signal a softening of the Greek stance.

 

EURUSD moved below Friday’s low this morning and is currently trading inside the daily pivot candle from May 27th and inside the Bollinger Bands with Stochastics pointing higher. Last week’s doji candle suggests that buyers are prepared to buy not so far from the current levels. At the time of writing the pair is trading higher intraday support level 1.0904 and lower 4h Bollinger bands. This could lead to a rally but now that the pair has moved below Friday’s low there are resistance levels ahead. Therefore such rallies could be short lived and price is likely to be range bound today between Friday’s high of 1.1006 and last week’s low of 1.0820. The nearest daily time frame support and resistance levels are at 1.0820 and 1.0965. The 50% Fibonacci level and 50 day SMA coincide at the latter level.

 

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Currency Pairs, Grouped Performance (% Change)

 

Today’s movers in terms of currency pairs are EURUSD, EURJPY, GBPJPY, AUDCHF that have all moved considerably from Friday’s close. EURJPY is correcting lower from a resistance and is at the time of writing trading slightly below Friday’s low. GBPJPY has corrected to a support created by a sideways range from mid-May while AUDCHF is moving higher after the pair closed down over the last four trading days. The main themes today have been weakness in JPY against everything else but the last week’s weakling NZD, EUR weakness across the board while GBP has been weak against everything else but CHF and EUR. USD is currently strong against EUR, GBP and CHF.

 

Main Macro Events Today

 

China’s PMI (Q1) figures improved modestly from April, but don’t suggest much pick up. The official manufacturing index edged up to 50.2, from 50.1 in both March and April, after the gauge had dipped below the 50 threshold in January and February. The PBoC has been fairly active in easing policy in recent months to try to help boost growth.

 

Eurozone May manufacturing PMI wasrevised down to 52.3 from 52.3 reported initially. The country breakdown was mixed, with Italian and Spanish readings coming in much higher than anticipated, and the French reading revised up, although the latter remained in contraction territory. The German PMI was the big disappointment, with a downward revision to 51.1, from 51.4 reported initially, which means the drop from the 52.1 April reading was even more pronounced than expected.

 

UK Manufacturing PMI came in at 52, slightly under the consensus expectation of 52.5. The PMI report showed that strong domestic demand is being offset by weak export performance, which has largely been a consequence of sterling’s strength against the euro. In April Markit PMI unexpectedly dove to 51.9 from 54.0 in March, itself revised from 54.4. This marked the slowest rate of expansion since November.

 

US Manufacturing ISM is expected to rise to 52.0 from 51.5 in April and March. Forecast risk: downward, given new order weakness in early month releases. Market risk: downward, as weakening in data could impact rate hike timelines.

 

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Please, click here to access the full HotForex Economic calendar.

 

Janne Muta

Chief Market Analyst

HotForex

 

Disclaimer: This material is provided as a general marketing communication for information purposes only and does not constitute an independent investment research. Nothing in this communication contains, or should be considered as containing, an investment advice or an investment recommendation or a solicitation for the purpose of buying or selling of any financial instrument. All information provided is gathered from reputable sources and any information containing an indication of past performance is not a guarantee or reliable indicator of future performance. Users acknowledge that any investment in FX and CFDs products is characterized by a certain degree of uncertainty and that any investment of this nature involves a high level of risk for which the users are solely responsible and liable. We assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment made based on the information provided in this communication. This communication must not be reproduced or further distributed without our prior written permission.