Traderbeauty-Long term ES forecast plus some trading examples

[Traderbeauty]

ESVepara- lets me show you and others what is going on.

Since this is a weekend i have some more time to go into a deeper explanation.

First of all- I AM NOT TRYING TO PREDICT WHEN AND IF THE MARKET WILL REVERSE TO THE DOWNSIDE.I only take profits of 7-15 points which is not bad at all considering that i only trade 1-3 contracts; so 7-15 points on each is considered a nice profit- at least by my standards.

We have to separate between the big and smaller time frames; and when we have a confluence our chances to win are much higher.

Second- ALL my longer term shorts are being conducted without stops- so this is dangerous for you and please do not follow me unless you can afford it.I have been posting my live trades with proofs of my live brokers account so you could see that i have accumulated a lot of profit that allows me to take some risk and enter without a stop.

The reason why i do so is because the market is over extended and overbougth so its more sensite and attentive to almost every fib level.

 

So lets start-

 

First chart is the renko spectrum 8-2-------------------------

Look at the bottom arrow- we had a perfect retracement of 50 fib so now i expect a move to the 1.6 where i already have a short limit order- my target is 50% retracement which should be around 13 points.;;; now- if it continues to the 1.9 instead then i will exit at the 38 fib- i am not a pig and that will still leave me with almost 7 points profit.

 

Lets take a look at the second timeframe- 12-3 look at the 2 arrows on the left- you can see that we had a perfect 38 fib retracement- so now i expect it to go to the 1.9 - from there i expect a move down to at least 38 which will give me ALMOST 20 POINTS USING ONLY ONE CONTRACT.- there can also be a scenario where i will get my 13 points first on the smaller time frame and then the 20 on the higher one- who knows- who cares- i will play it as it comes - like playing chess.

 

now lets look at the highest time frame here- you can see that 41-43 is a confluence level- from there the market can drop 100 points easily- but i dont care- i will exit at my initial targets- no more no less- but look at the volume- as the market goes up the volume goes down- no conviction- no fuel- no big money -this also is giving me the assurance that the up move lacks strength and should retrace on every fib level.

Please remember that i am going AGAINST the market in my long term account which has nothing to do with my intraday account where i can go long and short depending on the intraday signals.I can be wrong with my analysis and the market can laugh in my face and in my account- but - i have been doing this for a long time and i know when and where to take the risks.

So as i said- let the game begin and you can all judge the results in real time.hopefully the market will go up to fill my orders.

Take care and hope it help anyone.- would love to hear some comments-( took me almost an hour to post this and sometimes i feel like i am talking to myself...).

Traderbeauty-Jane

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

http://i.imgur.com/0tAi5wr.jpg

http://i.imgur.com/HYA0Wop.jpg

http://i.imgur.com/dEWFofB.jpg

[mastertrader7]

Be assured that i'm following your posts avidly.

I suppose i'm not the only one.

Keep going and never ever stop. ;)

[⭐ ESVepara]

ESVepara- lets me show you and others what is going on.

Since this is a weekend i have some more time to go into a deeper explanation.

First of all- I AM NOT TRYING TO PREDICT WHEN AND IF THE MARKET WILL REVERSE TO THE DOWNSIDE.I only take profits of 7-15 points which is not bad at all considering that i only trade 1-3 contracts; so 7-15 points on each is considered a nice profit- at least by my standards.

We have to separate between the big and smaller time frames; and when we have a confluence our chances to win are much higher.

Second- ALL my longer term shorts are being conducted without stops- so this is dangerous for you and please do not follow me unless you can afford it.I have been posting my live trades with proofs of my live brokers account so you could see that i have accumulated a lot of profit that allows me to take some risk and enter without a stop.

The reason why i do so is because the market is over extended and overbougth so its more sensite and attentive to almost every fib level.

 

So lets start-

 

First chart is the renko spectrum 8-2-------------------------

Look at the bottom arrow- we had a perfect retracement of 50 fib so now i expect a move to the 1.6 where i already have a short limit order- my target is 50% retracement which should be around 13 points.;;; now- if it continues to the 1.9 instead then i will exit at the 38 fib- i am not a pig and that will still leave me with almost 7 points profit.

 

Lets take a look at the second timeframe- 12-3 look at the 2 arrows on the left- you can see that we had a perfect 38 fib retracement- so now i expect it to go to the 1.9 - from there i expect a move down to at least 38 which will give me ALMOST 20 POINTS USING ONLY ONE CONTRACT.- there can also be a scenario where i will get my 13 points first on the smaller time frame and then the 20 on the higher one- who knows- who cares- i will play it as it comes - like playing chess.

 

now lets look at the highest time frame here- you can see that 41-43 is a confluence level- from there the market can drop 100 points easily- but i dont care- i will exit at my initial targets- no more no less- but look at the volume- as the market goes up the volume goes down- no conviction- no fuel- no big money -this also is giving me the assurance that the up move lacks strength and should retrace on every fib level.

Please remember that i am going AGAINST the market in my long term account which has nothing to do with my intraday account where i can go long and short depending on the intraday signals.I can be wrong with my analysis and the market can laugh in my face and in my account- but - i have been doing this for a long time and i know when and where to take the risks.

So as i said- let the game begin and you can all judge the results in real time.hopefully the market will go up to fill my orders.

Take care and hope it help anyone.- would love to hear some comments-( took me almost an hour to post this and sometimes i feel like i am talking to myself...).

Traderbeauty-Jane

 

Hello Traderbeauty,

 

Thank you for proving me with an opportunity to learn and understand your trading methodology. I appreciate your candor and logical explanations with charts and shows a mature understand of the market and it is the main reason why I have joined this forum.

 

So one of the take back regarding this post is that you are examining and confirming multiple time-frames whilst maximizing the profit objective which you have been doing on an consistent basis.

 

One of the questions I have regarding your system is that you do trade multiple timeframes i.e. long, short and intra-day. So as far as intraday timeframe is concerned - generally on average how many trades do you get?

 

Finally, I want you to know that I do read many of the forum responses, especially ones which offer some thought, like this 'thread' and provides me with an opportunity to improve my trading from successful traders like yourself.

 

Regards from sunny Florida.

[Traderbeauty]

ESVepara

I almost ALWAYS trade with the trend.That is when trading intraday- there is no sense to go against the trend- the only reasons why i am doing so now are-

1) since its impossible for me to show you real live examples of how amazing the leg system is during the day- i am just too busy trading- i am showing you longer term trades kind of in a slow motion that i can predict way ahead of time.

2) this is the only time i can go AGAINST the market using NO STOPS- for example - i would never go long now without a stop-the loss could be hundreds of points.

 

Regarding the frequency of my trading- its all up to the market and to the moves- this is an image of my trades friday- i am not going to go through every single one of them- you can easily see the first one which was a perfect 38 fib - under the moving average. i m not going to feed any of you with a silver spoon specifically after i posted so many images- rules and live examples in the past. its up to you to collect them all , study and understand.

I am amazed again and again how many of you are wasting time on educated system that cost thousands of dollars - but that does not justify their value.what you see in from of you is the holly grail - no thing less- but its not simple - nothing is, i have spent 14 years in trading till i fully understood that every single move in the es market has a reason behind, and if you spend enough time watching these legs- moves you can predict exactly where the next one will go with a very high percent of certainty.

 

The only reason why i keep posting is because of such wonderful eople like admis, atd, cash,yamantaka ( thx again for the ma- never forget lol ) and many many more that amaze me again and again with their knowledge and ability to help others.

So enjoy it and hopefully you can implement some in your current trading method.

Have a wonderful weekend .

Traderbeauty-Jane

 

http://i.imgur.com/CzVQb8Y.jpg

[Sixer]

Here is a similar strategy with Renko and MA`s for different platforms from Sylvain Vervoort for comparison:

 

http://technical.traders.com/content/backissuearchive.asp

 

Sixer

[Traderbeauty]

Here is a similar strategy with Renko and MA`s for different platforms from Sylvain Vervoort for comparison:

 

http://technical.traders.com/content/backissuearchive.asp

 

Sixer

Sixter- can you be more specific with you link ? there are so many items there no idea which one you refer to.

[Sixer]

Traderbeauty,

 

the Vercoort system is explained in the S&C article. The realization can be done by many platforms that`s why you will find the formulas for these. I don`t have the complate Vervoort article..

 

Sixer

[CashManic]

Sixter- can you be more specific with you link ? there are so many items there no idea which one you refer to.

 

Sixer,

Vervoort is very prolific and has written many articles on his strategies. Perhaps you meant this one?

http://blog.traderslibrary.com/traders-library/sylvain-vervoort/

[Sixer]

CashManic,

 

no - this strategy was described in the september issue 2014 of the S&C magazine.

 

Sixer

[wcicom]

Hi Jane,

 

Good posts yesterday and earlier today.

 

The third of November turned out to be very short term high, which for the purposes of my work is non-event since no fractal was created on daily chart. So it becomes simply a continuation of previous leg with a target high still in 2040-42 range as before. Monday 10th of November is still important date...but for the high now instead of the low. Best confirmation of coming change in trend would be a spike high in early part of the week followed by a daily close below the low of the high bar. Should be an interesting week. Thanks for the posts again.

 

Best,

Sam

[Traderbeauty]

dont have time- market is starting soon- just wanted to let u know that i changed my long term shorts to 2034 and 2042.75 both with many points profit.

the one close that was the shorter term 1.6 might have changed because of all the noise on friday- need to do a shorter term analysis to see where exactly to put it. but it seems to me i might add a short at exactly 41.75

[Traderbeauty]

filled :) to the tick

[Traderbeauty]

seems like lately its harder to keep myself awake than to trade, no sure how are the other markets but the es is hardly moving.

the less moves - the less opportunities and places to enter- oh well.

I have 2 other shorts placed - all with brackets to exit just in case it happens during the night-

will exit the 34 at 20; and each of the other 2 which are 41.75 and 42.75 with profits of around 15 points each, ;.

just take a quick look at the daily price-volume- its pathetic - you can see that today's up move has no backup of volume to support so i expect a strong correction to the downside- again- i am not talking about reversal for now- only a nice retracement which i plan to bank on.

take care.

traderbeauty-Jane

http://i.imgur.com/NsvMOse.jpg

[⭐ stingrayzz]

Tomorrow is a holiday. That is why there is no volume. I would not trade the day before a holiday.

 

Cheers

[⭐ ESVepara]

Tomorrow is a holiday. That is why there is no volume. I would not trade the day before a holiday.

 

Cheers

 

Great point Stingrayzz - The market was anemic today.

[Traderbeauty]

thanks sting- wow- totally forgot and i am not involved with any trading group or chat room so its very easy to forget lol.

awesome- a day off tomorrow.

take care

jane

btw- still there was nothing to support this up move even with the holiday imho.

[wcicom]

If you mean Veteran's Day - all Markets are open, Interest Rates Pit is closed, but all Globex instruments are open, and so are equities.

[⭐ stingrayzz]

People take time off. 4 day weekend = Less volume. I do not trade on holidays or the day before a holiday even if the market is open.

 

Cheers

Edited November 11, 2014 by stingrayzz

[⭐ flipper26]

If you mean Veteran's Day - all Markets are open, Interest Rates Pit is closed, but all Globex instruments are open, and so are equities.

 

Markets are open but banks are closed and it is a slow, low volume day. Noticed too that several trading rooms are not trading today because it will be so slow.

[Traderbeauty]

since that level 34-35 did not hold- meaning the REASON WHY i entered short initially did not pan- i got out of it this morning with a small profit- right at the 38 fib and i will reshort at the upper levels

 

http://i.imgur.com/eE6sLPM.jpg

[Traderbeauty]

Another nail in the upward move's coffin lol.

Market is going up while you can see how volume is going down- doesnt make a difference if it was a semi holiday today.

Cant wait for it to go to 41-43 .

Traderbeauty-Jane

http://i.imgur.com/lifztAb.jpg

[hirobo]

Hi Traderbeauty, thank you very much for your comments. I am trying to analyze the ES like you do. I have one question if i can : in my ID trading on 2-1 renko i am entering as you write when Navi signal appear and i set my limit order 2 ticks from it, but in many cases the price is too fast to give me fill. Have you also this problem? I do not want to chase the price so i move to other setup. Thank you for any info. BR from Czech Republic

[Traderbeauty]

Hi Traderbeauty, thank you very much for your comments. I am trying to analyze the ES like you do. I have one question if i can : in my ID trading on 2-1 renko i am entering as you write when Navi signal appear and i set my limit order 2 ticks from it, but in many cases the price is too fast to give me fill. Have you also this problem? I do not want to chase the price so i move to other setup. Thank you for any info. BR from Czech Republic

 

Entering the trade is an entire separate subject which will take an entire chapter to explain.

In few words- you can enter in few ways- if the market is fast you know where the new renko bar will begin and you just put a stop limit entry one tick after- i dont like to do so but you can.

Another way to enter- you can enter with the direction and color using any gold navi bar on the way as long as you did not reach a double botom/top- then its too later.

I use a 50 tick chart to monitor and find a good entry.

Hope that helps

Traderbeauty-Jane

[Traderbeauty]

dont have time- market is starting soon- just wanted to let u know that i changed my long term shorts to 2034 and 2042.75 both with many points profit.

the one close that was the shorter term 1.6 might have changed because of all the noise on friday- need to do a shorter term analysis to see where exactly to put it. but it seems to me i might add a short at exactly 41.75

 

Just wanted you to see how powerful are fibs-

I posted the above quote THREE DAYS AGO.

Now guess what was the high an hour or two ago------------yes- dont be shy - yes- its was 2043 meaning i hit my shot to the tick- i love when it happens.

Dont forget that i got out of the 2034 with a small profit- i think it was 2 points.so now i have 2 levels shorts 41.50 and two more at 42.75.

Not saying this is going to be THE TOP for now but its nice to get filled- got my exits there and just for fun i have one more short just in case the market will try to play games- at 2046.25.

have a wonderful night and hopefully i will have a nice morning when i wake up lol.

gnight everyone.

Traderbeauty-Jane

Edited November 13, 2014 by Traderbeauty

[wcicom]

After so many years looking at how Fibs pull and stop Markets - I still get amazed by it. The reason so many folks are turned off by Fibs is because all those books they read on the subject, by so called "experts", most of whom instead of showing a few great setups using Fibs only confuse the reader and eventually destroy traders confidence in these tools.

 

What some traders lack in understanding is that Fibs always work, they simply need to define "works" in their mind. Besides that Fibs provide road map for the Markets - they tells even more about what is likely to happen when these levels seem to fail. By developing correct outlook and understanding of Fibonacci in Markets, one will eventually come to the conclusion that they always tell us something....whether they hold or not, and time should be spent learning how to translate what the Market is saying by respecting confluence levels or simply piercing right through them. As far as I am concerned - you can not ask more than that of any tool.

 

As always - it's not how much the Market went up or down that matters....it's where it stopped or didn't that does.

 

Good work Jane,

Regards,

Sam.

Edited November 13, 2014 by wcicom