Traderbeauty-Long term ES forecast plus some trading examples

[Traderbeauty]

Hello My Friends.

 

Would love to share with you my longer term forecast of the ES which normally means the entire market.

 

This type of method is the same for day trading- nothing changes other than stops end targets.

 

When you look at the image attached you can see that the market created a LOWER LOW by breaking the previous pivot of 1882.75.

 

I expect now that the market will create a LOWER HIGH and I plan to take an advantage of this opportunity.

 

As you can see the market broke the 1.272 but never made it to the 1.618 ( first arrow on the bottom ).

 

There are 3 levels where I expect the market to continue down-

 

First is where we are now right at the 61.8 .

 

Second is a perfect symmetry ( second arrow ) right at 1945- I need to elaborate about this level-------------------

 

What kind of bothers me is that the market stopped at the middle of nowhere right between the 1.2 and the 1.6 so from my experience- when a fib does not work then a symmetry does- at 1945 we will have a perfect AB=CD meaning the distance between the previous pivot of 1882.75 and the top of 2015 will equal to the distance between the last bottom of 1812.50 and 1945.

 

Third and last level is the 78 at 1971.

 

The move I expect from all these 3 levels is huge at least break of last low of 1812.50.

 

So lets get the game started and I will update you.

 

hope it helps

 

Traderbeauty-Jane

 

http://i.imgur.com/rLuMJgE.jpg

[mastertrader7]

Love your threads and posts,keep up the great work.

 

http://i138.photobucket.com/albums/q268/allseeingeyess/upic-563.gif

[leo1177]

i think the fib levels don't move the market...

[Traderbeauty]

User33 -

Keep in mind that these are daily levels so expect some deviation from the exact numbers.

Just to make it CLEAR- I DO NOT TRADE FIBS; I trade leg action and fibs are just addresses for my entries.

Its like driving at night in a shaded neighborhood - The streets and alleys are the market direction and the fibs are the addresses- So if there is no address you wont get off your car - true ? and if there is no street you wont turn. By using fibs you lower your risk and skip chop and fake entries.

 

Leo- FIB LEVELS DO NOT MOVE THE MARKETS ; its the TRADERS who believe in them that cause the move and if enough traders do that then the market will move right there.

It has nothing to do with what you or I believe- what makes the difference is that IT WORKS.

There is one issue i have to add- the more traders there are ; the more accurate the fibs are going to be so that is the reason why i would not trade CL or TF using fibs- it just wont work.

That is the reason why i only trade the ES.

 

Hope that clears the picture a little.

Traderbeauty-Jane

[mastertrader7]

the more accurate the fibs are going to be so that is the reason why i would not trade CL or TF using fibs- it just wont work.

That is the reason why i only trade the ES.

 

Hope that clears the picture a little.

Traderbeauty-Jane

 

Why only ES?

[leo1177]

its the TRADERS who believe? i don't think so...

 

the smart money moves the market, and the smart money don't trade this fibs etc. if your fibs works only on the s&p it is only for a time before the market change...

and you lose all of your profits!

the smart money accumulate and distribute his positions... and it is very hard to see the tops/bottoms, you can only see how the smart money pushes the price and after that

you see the area where the smart money bought...

 

http://www.directupload.net/file/d/3783/j4oxp397_png.htm

 

but it is not enought to make money on the markets

[leo1177]

sdfsdfsd

 

look for the right context... and than try to read where buying or selling is and look for traps and if the price starts to rally in one direction...

http://www.directupload.net/file/d/3783/hln2po3s_png.htm

 

http://www.directupload.net/file/d/3783/fr7ow2nx_png.htm

http://www.directupload.net/file/d/3783/kcul8sve_png.htm

[wcicom]

Hi Traderbeauty,

 

Markets, especially liquid ones like our SP's, never stop in the middle of nowhere, it is usually an oversight of one doing technical work if it seems like it. On the chart below we can see two retracement levels and one projection level in the pretty tight zone, this kind of confluence will always, if not reverse the Market, will make it pause and bounce, at least for a while. In addition - low of correction was exactly 10% decline from the high.

It could be that you are using Dec ES, and I am using cont. contract, that is the reason for at least one retracement of yours to come in short.

 

http://i59.tinypic.com/mie6x3.png

Edited October 22, 2014 by wcicom

[wcicom]

As far as Fib levels go, operating in Markets without a good knowledge of them - is going blind.

 

Not a single Market in history of men ever made a significant reversal without confluence of Fibs and Symmetry present,

if anything else shows up at those turns - simply a coincidence. Yes, prop firms, some funds and whatever else can make the Market move a few points at any time. But significant reversals do not happen without strong hands working in unison. To stop the slide and turn it around to the tune of 100+ points is not a work of any prop firm or any other noise maker out there....that is the "real" money at play .

 

Everything in our Universe expands and contracts in Fib ratios, why not Markets ?

Edited October 23, 2014 by wcicom

[Traderbeauty]

Hello Friends.

 

I am thrilled to see so many of you responding and discussing methods and style instead of just indicator collections.

I believe this is the true spirit of this forum, we all trade , we are all here because we want to be better and learn from others so thanks again for all your excellent responses.

I only use certain fibs 38 , 50 , 61 and 78 for retracement and 1.2, 1.6 and 1.9 for extension; i believe most traders are using the same and that is why fib do work.

I dont have time right now but i wanted to show you REAL RESULTS of my method.

 

I MADE $750.00 IN ONE DAY - see image attached- this is real live interactive brokers account- i only took out the names.

The first trade was a mistake i made while entering another trade- i got filled and got out as ap losing 2 ticks so please ignore it.

There was only one trade- short at 37 and exit at 22 for a nice profit of $750.00 USING ONLY ONE CONTRACT- that is about 150% using a $500 margin on es.

I could only do that because i was expecting a nice move down from the 61 fib.

Now- you can ask WHY DID I EXIT ? target is a new low with more than 100 es points to go.

The answer is in the daily volume.

Look at the second chart- toward the end of the day I noticed that the move down is not confirmed by big enough volume compared to the last few day which means that we might go higher either to 45 or 1971 so i exited and already have my limit orders in ( see image- real orders not sim ).

I plan to post some intraday examples that will show you how you can trade the es with NO INDICATORS and also avoid chop or sideways again- NO INDICATORS.

I will gladly do that i just need to see some responses to show me that people are interested and i am not wasting my time.

Hope that helps

Traderbeauty-Jane

 

http://i.imgur.com/ykZTRqr.png

 

http://i.imgur.com/KRMamYS.jpg

Edited October 23, 2014 by Traderbeauty

[mastertrader7]

Traderbeauty i truly love you.

So disheartening that we not seeing more accomplished

traders share their insights with us and hiding behind their nick names.

I am sure we have lots of them amongst us.

[Traderbeauty]

Matertrader-

Thank you for your kind words.

Trading is the only profession where WE DO NOT COMPETE WITH EACH OTHER.

If we all had furniture stores then we would be fighting on each client and each sale.

Trading together is actually helping us- just imagine that we all go long at the same time- we are helping each other- this situation does not exist in any other form of business.

So us getting together and helping each other is actually helping ourselves.Hope this will continue.

Jane

[⭐ timein]

Absolutely agree with you we as traders need to stick together and network because are true fight is with the markets that is where the battle should be fought. Not amongst are self’s.

 

Thanks Traderbeauty for the words of wisdom…

[leo1177]

Matertrader-

Thank you for your kind words.

Trading is the only profession where WE DO NOT COMPETE WITH EACH OTHER.

If we all had furniture stores then we would be fighting on each client and each sale.

Trading together is actually helping us- just imagine that we all go long at the same time- we are helping each other- this situation does not exist in any other form of business.

So us getting together and helping each other is actually helping ourselves.Hope this will continue.

Jane

 

how you make your entrys?

[wcicom]

Traderbeauty, I have to applaud your never ending attempts to share something good with the Forum, and yet bunch of members here simply choose to argue and display their frustration with trading instead of trying to understand what is being shown.

 

User33, read again what I said, everything EXPANDS AND CONTRACTS in Fib ratios, and Markets are always expanding or contracting. Fib proportions are found in everything in nature, including our own bodies. Take a look at the chart I uploaded, I assume you know at least a little bit about Fib ratios, do you really believe that Market stopped where it did by chance ? Final swing in to extreme is one of the most important measuring "sticks" that you will ever see on the chart, and we have 161.8% retracement of that on the low. We also have 161.8% of A to C expansion on the low, and we have 423% of the smaller swing in to extreme on the low, talk about dense. There are symmetry relationships there also, but I have shown enough on that chart already.

 

The problem with Fibs is that most traders have no clue how to use them, and which levels matter in what situation. You will never read anything useful about Fib use in Markets in the books, spend 3-4 quality years with Fibs...you will be surprised what you will find.

[windo]

When Wyckoff married Fib , they will ..... ?

The more than 200 year old couple

 

This is their wedding

http://s14.directupload.net/images/141023/dcdofbh5.jpg

 

http://s14.directupload.net/images/141023/dcdofbh5.jpg

 

Wyckoff based on human behaviour, human behaviour doesn’t change any since 1930. So Wyckoff still works today !

 

Fib based on human behaviour too? Lala

 

They are both interesting in human behaviour !!!

 

 

So when Wyckoff married Fib, they will ..... ?

Trades about to happen .....

 

Sometims Sometimes Sometimes

Or

Always Always Always

 

Smart Money may speed the market quickly with the help of Fib’s action from human (Speed the re-distribution,etc) , So Fib sometimes works .

 

Smart Money may just trap the Fib’s action from human too (re-accumulation/absorption the FibZone and continue the trend , etc) So Fib sometimes failed .

 

It all depends on the Context the background the Market phase

And

It vary in instrument in different SM’s taste , the most important depends on the Market Phase from the wyckoff’s view

 

 

I like Traderbeauty/ Leo117/Spectral_Analyst’s idea below

 

and hope they can share or explain more

 

Thanks

 

 

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

 

Traderbeauty

Keep in mind that these are daily levels so expect some deviation from the exact numbers.

 

Just to make it CLEAR- I DO NOT TRADE FIBS; I trade leg action and fibs are just addresses for my entries.

Its like driving at night in a shaded neighborhood - The streets and alleys are the market direction and the fibs are the addresses- So if there is no address you wont get off your car - true ? and if there is no street you wont turn. By using fibs you lower your risk and skip chop and fake entries.

 

FIB LEVELS DO NOT MOVE THE MARKETS ; its the TRADERS who believe in them that cause the move and if enough traders do that then the market will move right there.

 

the more traders there are ; the more accurate the fibs are going to be (the more traders there are , the more abnormal are going to be )

 

I plan to post some intraday examples that will show you how you can trade the es with NO INDICATORS and also avoid chop or sideways again- NO INDICATORS.

 

I will gladly do that i just need to see some responses to show me that people are interested and i am not wasting my time.

 

@Traderbeauty Hope to learn more about your intraday tding without indicators . Thanks

 

 

Leo117 :the smart money moves the market, and the smart money don't trade this fibs etc.

 

@Leo117 Leo117 Your must be an great Wyckoff-VSA Trader .

I Love Wyckoff too.

What’s your data feed(volume) for GC/ES(Daily)

It would be more great if you can add volume to your cases to explain more

thanks

 

 

 

Spectral_Analyst :I have worked with the props before, have been in contact with prop firms who have the firepower to move the ES by 5-10 point easily. I only see them 1)tracking breadth

2)sentiment

3)Value

4)Statistics

They innovate 100's of new tools with these 4 things. Thats just to have an edge in this game which nobody else has. Any reading which is publicly tracked will never have a consistent edge. Thats why smart traders dont use fibs.

 

@Spectral_Analyst Grete information , Would you please kindly explain it in more detail ? I want to learn more about Smart money . thanks

Edited October 23, 2014 by windo

[Traderbeauty]

absolutely correct WCICOM.

Only someone that is constantly using fibs knows the truth.

I see the fibs working like a clockwork every single day but why argue...

btw- are you using dynamic trader ? and if yes then why not ninja ?

[wcicom]

Hi Traderbeauty,

 

Yes, I use Dynamic Trader for a long while now, I like it most for working with daily and larger time frames. I do use Ninja and Fibonacci Trader for intra-day. You know how it is....each software has it's strengths and weaknesses :)

[user33]

I see the fibs working like a clockwork every single day but why argue...

 

I want to thank you again for sharing your thoughts and your trading ideas, as you already know, we respond to your posts because we want to grow and develop, not because we want to argue. I merely pointed out the scientific facts about the false claim that everything expands and contracts in fib ratios, and someone started to feel offended and started to argue in defense of their false believes, instead of carefully exam the validity of their false believes, I hate arguing so I won't continue to question that false claim, but I will keep my eyes open for more convincing evidence from you and other believers of fib powers.

 

Thanks again for sharing!

[Tostao]

Hi all,

 

whether they are fibos, pivots, value areas, S&R etc. (everything is valued in the battlefield) in the end this is a matter of context and as traders react at those levels and the likelihood that other traders also react there. finally the work of the traders is to make trades. Where? at levels where that work for them in the long term.

 

Thanks to everyone for sharing their valuable experiences !!!

[leo1177]

hi windo, i love wyckoffs work too, but my trading style is more larry williams! i study all his courses, very great work!

[wcicom]

User33, do you know what Fib ratios are and how to use them ? The only reason I showed anything at all - is Traderbeauty said that decline stopped in the middle of nowhere, so I simply showed that it did not. I have no intention of showing my levels before, after or at all for that matter, good luck.

[wcicom]

You must be a younger trader user33, to suggest that Fib. levels, Gartley patterns and etc. is all it takes to make money in Markets - speaks of very little experience.

 

Where do I start ? :) I do know Fibonacci "Queen", and of course Robert Miner, and everyone else you mentioned. The reason they still pitch their services is that folks keep buying them. Now I said in previous post that you will never learn correct application of Fibs in Markets from any book, I guess I should have added that same goes for any course, webinar and all else. I know Carolyn Boroden long before she became Fib Queen, I know who thought her whatever little she knows, and believe me - she knows very little. Robert Miner's work stood out back in late 90's, but he refused to change with times, and his forecasts for the past decade or so are a joke. I am not going to run down the list of all "Fib gurus", but I don't have any argument with you there, these folks know just enough to push the idea for money.

 

Since you touched the subject of actual trading, let me be clear - not Fib levels, not Gann stuff or any other method can make a profitable trader. It is important to distinguish forecasting from trading - they are two totally different "animals". But one's inability to make money in markets does not take away their knowledge of certain techniques, as little as they may be. The only way to make money in Markets is to learn to trade...trade not forecast.

 

I have been involved in Markets, in one capacity or another, for 30 years, and for the past 12 years trading is my only source of income. I will repeat - once real knowledge of Fibs is acquired, nothing will show the road map in any Market better the Fibonacci Ratios, but then the rest is up to each and everyone of us, like that saying goes - "you can lead the horse to water..........".

 

Good luck,

Edited October 24, 2014 by wcicom

[Traderbeauty]

I second your words wcicom.

USER33 when you spoke with passion about your method using just volume etc following Anthony Drager- I LISTENED, I thanked you and I said that I will spend the time and effort to test, listen understand and decipher your method or lets say -in other words your restored my non belief in volume profile etc back to life.

I am always WILLING TO LEARN from others.I will not spend a second on most of the commercial traders unless I get a recommendation in this forum ( as i did following spectral analyst - and please spectral- dont be mad at me- i am just trying to help everyone and i do value your opinion enormously so please lets stay friends).

Now user33- there is a reason why 97% of the traders lose money- and its very simple- TRADING IS NOT AS EASY AS IT LOOKS.

The problem is that it takes years and money lost in trading and studying to understand that.

So when others here are telling you that FIBS ARE WORKING LIKE A CLOCKWORK you should listen to us and accept it even if you dont believe that.

AGAIN- i dont trade fibs - the fibs are just an address on the direction that i derive using leg analysis, and AGAIN- the reason i only trade the ES is because FIB WORK BEST ON THE ES.

 

I will play a game with you- I know its a little crooked but there is no other alternative-

 

Please pick a date ( in the past ) take the worst choppy ; sideways day possible -ES only and let me show you the analysis and how i avoid that chop WITHOUT ANY INDICATORS at all.

 

It does not have to be user33 day pick- i would love to do that with a general consents and a vote of many of you.

 

To end- if someone here will tell me that he can teach me how to better my trading using the weirdest method possible- i will listen and test it, i will definitely not ignore it.

 

USER33- i make my living out of my trading so being profitable is not an option for me its a fact of life.

 

Take care and thank you all again for participating.

 

Traderbeauty-Jane

[⭐ flipper26]

If a person cannot trade, I would consider his "knowledge" Fake Knowledge. Fake knowledge are not only useless, but harmful, they will waste your time, the most limited resource in life, they will cause you to lose unlimited amount of money in trading, because you would be trading using invalid methods that would lose consistently.

 

Never again will I waste my precious time investigating claims from people who cannot trade. Most people who cannot trade tell lies to new traders in order to make money from them, others unintentionally tell lies to new traders just like cult members who have strong passions to spread their cult believes.

 

I want to caution new traders: don't fall for them, avoid those who cannot trade but want your money or want you to believe in them and to learn from them, only learn from real traders who can prove their ability in real time, before trades happened, and who are willing to show their trading records.

 

Real traders do not teach, they are busy trading. Even if they did teach it does not mean that you would be able to follow them and achieve the same results anyway. There are many who are good at teaching but not as good at applying and executing what they are teaching for any number of reasons. Professional athletes all have coaches (some of them have several coaches for specific things). Are you suggesting that those coaches are fakes because they are not playing the sport at a high level themselves?

Your comments are your personal opinions only they are not facts and people should only take them as such.