Using @Pex

[Wanderer]

The source of fear is a lack of confidence in the system we are trading. We need to have confidence that the system we are trading, if we follow the rules, will be profitable over time. When we don't have that certainty, we are fearful and will hesitate at the moment of truth.

 

It is difficult for me to have any confidence in trading a system of my own design. I know I am a rank amatuer and have no special qualifications to design a trading system that will be successful over time. I can do a lot of things well. But I also know my limitations. I am not qualified to create a trading system that is successful over time. So I will always lack confidence in any system of my own design and be fearful in trusting it with my money in the markets.

 

So I look for someone who has the needed qualifications and has designed a system that is profitable. Once I have tested it and have demonstrated to myself that it works over time, then I can have the needed confidence to trade it properly. This goes a long way in removing the fear which causes losses.

 

I believe the #pex system provides an advantage. Especially with the deviation data they compute on their servers and push out to the indicators on our charts. I believe this system has the ability to win over time. Which is what I am looking for. If this system is profitable then I will subscribe to their service. As anyone who is profiting from the use of these indicators should do.

 

So having stated all of this it seems that I should start with the @pex system default charts. I like the role the Logik Volume Wand plays in trading. I think it is important to see the areas of real resistance and support. But to start lets go with what the expert who designed this system says about how it should be traded. It doesn't make any sense to get a system, designed by an expert, because they are experts, then immediately start taking it apart, as if I were the expert.

 

After we understand the system better and are using it effectively, then each of us can customize it to our own unique style of trading.

 

So next we will display some charts.

 

W.

[Wanderer]

Chart and potential Trades from 8/15/2014. Wish I had stayed up for it. I am going to have to make a habit of staying up to at least midnight Hong Kong time. Noon EST. Another reminder that I have switched the color for the Range Indicator, red to green and green to red. Makes more sense to me that way.

 

http://content.screencast.com/users/WanderingIntheField/folders/Default/media/c7aadd21-ce8c-4b02-b171-465806ad0612/2014-08-16_1514.png

Edited August 16, 2014 by Wanderer

[Wanderer]

This is the second trade. It is an Apex trade. In the future I will be posting all the trades until the first profitable trade, since I am going to be quitting after I have reached my daily goal. Which for me is $100.

 

http://content.screencast.com/users/WanderingIntheField/folders/Default/media/ec7c2b1d-05b1-48b8-9355-34a0273f769e/2014-08-16_1554.png

Edited August 18, 2014 by Wanderer

[⭐ trader1968]

Hi, are these charts from the educated stuff ?

 

Has it been educated ?

 

Thanks for all the help.

 

Take care all and good trading !

[Wanderer]

So those charts are what a Market that is giving looks like. Now lets look at a Market that is taking.

 

http://content.screencast.com/users/WanderingIntheField/folders/Default/media/08f4db04-1948-456d-85e5-c908454d6451/2014-08-16_1704.png

[admis]

Hi, are these charts from the educated stuff ?

Has it been educated ?

...

 

No, not yet. The charts (of W. and S.T.) has been taken from the paid or trial version.

[Wanderer]

Wow, I'm confused. Guys, please - don't let the stress to control you...

http://s28.postimg.org/8gf4cm2q5/image.jpg

 

Now I'm confused. You asked me to create a thread to show how Apex is used to trade futures, since you were not a US citizen and could not trade Nadex. Are you still interested in me doing this? If you like, you can create a thread and we can all post there. Or you can have this thread. Which ever you prefer. I am doing this because you asked me to. I thought it was the least I could do for all that you have done.

 

Regards, W.

Edited August 16, 2014 by Wanderer

[SecretTrader]

@Wanderer/@SecretTrader:

I'm not trying to judge any of you, but all of us with a pleasure would like to teach from both of you - similar, but nevertheless, different approaches... Based on that, indeed, maybe it is not bad idea to open separate thread on using a.p.e.x as tool to trade the options.

 

IMHO: SecretTrader, I think, it can be too hasty statement, at least reading it by a newbies, what you wrote as the answer to yamantaka question:

 

I'd like to ask you to explain it in a wider form for better understanding. I assume it was only your kind of thinking shortcut. For the people, who spent years trading, exploring the market, such a statement can be an ignition to explode...

 

I understand that, but honestly newbies will take them a month as well to understand how binaries move and function. I am not saying they will be profitable in a month, they will understand the necessary framework. It takes something time to click in your mind, and with binaries if you watch them move, they will click in a month's time.

[Wanderer]

Lost in the cloud Edited August 18, 2014 by Wanderer

[Wanderer]

The previous chart shows 2 days with an Actual Volume which was below Expected Volume. They were Bad Trade Days. The kind of days where you could end up sitting in front of your PC for hours and not get a trade. It is very important that we have the self-discipline to be able to do that. Having clear signals is one of the ways we are able to sit and wait for our trade. As long as it takes. Waiting is the most difficult part for me. I am not a patient person by nature. As some have probably already noticed.

 

In the other chart I showed that when Actual Volume exceeded Expected Volume, along with other indicators, it provided great market movement and trade opportunities.

 

The chart below is kind of a combination of the two. It is a possible trade day. The kind you would want to take when you already have some of Mr. Market's money in your pocket. It is a lower probability trade day. In this chart, because volume is low (relative to this market in general), it is spikey. And because it is low more people are able to push the market around and they do. But the Actual Volume exceeds the Expected by a considerable amount. Which makes it a candidate for trading.

 

http://content.screencast.com/users/WanderingIntheField/folders/Default/media/18db9b91-a991-426d-8e33-c11bf2085f9a/2014-08-17_2133.png

Edited August 18, 2014 by Wanderer

[Wanderer]

Now we all know that anyone can pick winners after the fact. So it is live trading where the rubber meets the road. There is only 1 measure of our success as traders, do we have more money in our account at the end of the month, or less. No one gets anything in this business for effort or good intentions.

 

So we will see how this works for me in Mondays trading and I will post my results. Good or bad. I think I know what I am looking for and will know it when I see it. Of course we know there will be losing trades. But they should be small compared to the winners. Remember, we are taking maximum advantage of what the Market is saying about how far it will move that day. The Deviation is calculated on the vendor's server from Options data and pushed out to the customer's charts. Sweet! The service is $200. With the indicators. But their trading room is a waste of time.

 

Also, their Forex trading system uses futures volume to help trade Forex. Slicker than snail sh1t. That does limit the Forex instruments you can trade of course. I don't know much about it because I have no interest in Forex. But worth checking out if you want to trade Forex.

[Wanderer]

Wanderer-GREAT JOB.

Thanks so much, I was watching the other thread but lost interest once I saw its was only for options or forex.

Your post is very clear and full of information.

One question though- can this be applied to the ES ?

Thanks and good luck trading this week.

Keep going-

Thanks

Traderbeauty-Jane

 

The instruments supported by their Deviations data is limited. But the ES is one of them. And I think would work well because the high volume of the ES makes the volume indicators even more meaningful. You are welcome to trade ES in this project. As a matter of fact, I would invite everyone to pick their favorite instrument as long as it is supported by the Deviations data from the vendor. There is no list that I could find but all the Eminis are supported.

 

Good luck. Glad to have you here, W.

[Wanderer]

I'm also glad you are going to continue your thread. It can be of interesting - what is the reason you've chosen the TF?

Good luck!

 

It's closer to my time frame. So it sometimes moves before the US session opens. Which is the time that it most often moves. But since I am sleeping late in the day so I can be up until at least noon EST, midnight my time, it hardly matters anymore.

 

I invited everyone to pick their favorite instrument. All of the eminis are supported by the Deviation data. I also suggest that for starters that we all focus on one instrument to start. Different instruments have different characters, has been my observation. We should develop an intimate knowledge of an instrument's character before adding another to our trading repertoire.

 

I am going to move this over to the original thread. Lets continue there.

 

Glad to have you here, W.

[admis]

Thanks for your attention, I'll be here...

[Wanderer]

Today's ES. It's character appears distinctly different than the TF. Still the volume here, as in the TF, gives us a good idea when and where to trade. Along with the other indicators. The Apex bars filter out a lot of noise. They are like range bars on steroids.

 

Again, in my opinion, the Market only gives up the goods 20% of the time. Give or take.

 

http://content.screencast.com/users/WanderingIntheField/folders/Default/media/7f04c389-3c9c-48b3-b2f6-cd08838a3545/2014-08-18_1919.png

[Wanderer]

Monday - No Trade Day. Stopped at Noon EST. Midnight my time.

 

http://content.screencast.com/users/WanderingIntheField/folders/Default/media/85099ac0-6c4b-47fc-8a5c-d490f62f5cc0/2014-08-18_2349.png

[Wanderer]

The chart below is the rest of Monday's session. The system has done its job well and kept me out of a Bad Trade Day. A day where the odds were against me. I kept my discipline and did not make an impulse trade.

 

It is my goal to make this trading system as objective and mechanical as possible. This will be done with a clearly defined set of rules. Of course there will always be a degree of subjectivity. But I hope to minimize it as much as possible.

 

The objective here again is to take one profitable trade a session and stop. When we succumb to greed and want it all, we are playing the Market Makers game and are in their control. So one of the ways we beat them is to take what we need at the optimum time and leave. We strike when they are most vulnerable and disappear into the fog. It is like being a guerrilla fighter or a Ninja. They are defenseless against this strategy. So lets whip them like a redheaded stepchild (no offense to redheads).

 

http://content.screencast.com/users/WanderingIntheField/folders/Default/media/a08db26f-cd82-41c3-b16a-a53c7cfc41ae/2014-08-19_0953.png

[Wanderer]

I know I haven't talk about Stops yet. I don't want anyone to get the idea I don't use them. I certainly do. They limit our risk. Some decisions need to be made about how exactly they will be used. We will address that soon.

 

W.

[Wanderer]

Zoomed in view of Monday.

 

http://content.screencast.com/users/WanderingIntheField/folders/Default/media/96126bd6-a2e2-4126-943b-df986a2c4ff9/2014-08-19_1850.png

[Wanderer]

These are the rules so far.

 

Again, the goal of this project is to develop a trading method that enables me to take one profitable trade a day with the highest probability. This is, of course, going to require a lot of waiting and patience.

 

The goal is not to become a Professional Trader. I don't want to grapple with the markets. I don't even like trading. I just want an income. A modest one at that. I think it is doable if I can maintain my discipline.

 

A lack of discipline enables the Market Makers to manipulate me. And then I lose. I am not going to beat them at their game. So I have to change the game to one I can win. And that will be a game of self discipline.

 

I have decided to add a Retest of the Deviation Levels, Current Session or Previous Session, to the rules because the strongest trades come from that. The Deviation Levels are based on Options data and forward looking.

 

Rules:

 

Price must retest Deviation Level. Current or Previous Session.

 

Actual Volume must be equal to or above Expected Volume. Preferably in a stair-step pattern.

 

Range Bar must be, equal to or higher than, the most recent Bar of the opposite color. Preferably in a stair-step pattern.

 

Range Channel (on Price Action) Highs/Lows must be progressively higher/lower for Longs/Shorts.

Edited August 20, 2014 by Wanderer
Update rules.

[admis]

...

Rules:

....

 

What is the period in minutes for the Expected Volume and Expected Range?

[Wanderer]

What is the period in minutes for the Expected Volume and Expected Range?

 

4 Minutes Volume

60 Minutes Range

Daily Deviation Levels

 

W.

[Wanderer]

This is Tuesday's Chart. The trading session fails the Retest of Deviation Level rule. The rules are not written in stone at this point. I do think though that the Deviation rule is a good one to ensure a consistently profitable trade. If I were to change a rule I would not be inclined to change that one. Suggestions are welcome.

 

In hindsight we see a trade in each of these two no trade days. But I believe these are weak trades and could easily go against us on another day. It also subjects us to emotional trading and guessing. I feel strongly that a set of rules is important to reduce stress, guessing and impulse trading and be consistently profitable. The primary goal.

 

http://content.screencast.com/users/WanderingIntheField/folders/Default/media/0853ea64-aac6-4fe7-b92a-f993b90769ce/2014-08-20_1143.png

[Wanderer]

A reminder of what a qualified Trade looks like.

 

http://content.screencast.com/users/WanderingIntheField/folders/Default/media/4298d13a-900d-4c81-8a3d-e965b8ee28e0/2014-08-20_1206.png

[Wanderer]

Example of Trade under updated Volume rules.

 

http://content.screencast.com/users/WanderingIntheField/folders/Default/media/17fb34b5-021b-4128-9f8b-4d71d2f21614/2014-08-20_1237.png