Traderbeauty-Power of longer term price analysis and my broker's real money reports a

[Traderbeauty]

IBF-

This is a calculated risk and for me its a very low one.

My drawdown on the one i shorted at 1985.5 is around 3 k and the next one from 2011 is another 1.5 k which is no big deal for a long term account.

I have been playing this long term game for a long time but i only do that when the market is at extreme overbought or oversold like now.

The surprise and wash will come to the downside so i am not worried at all.

I already made profits many time in the long term so i am covered.

To answer you other question- if it takes forever and the september contract ends - all i do is roll over and go to the new contract but obviously adjust my entries and exits to the new numbers.

You have to understand something which is very important- nothing goes up or down forever- there are waves and moves and i take advantage of them.

I am not expecting the market to do down to zero or 1000 - all i do is slide down to a 62 or 50 fib of the current leg, thats it. then i will start a new game lol.

jane

[Vivaldi]

I totally agree with k33 >>> NO-ONE should be shorting the ES unless you have a HUGE Account and take super small positions like 1 or 2 contracts on a SUPER HUGE ACCOUNT.

 

I agree with k33 that the banks have access right now to BASICALLY VIRTUALLY UNLIMITED amounts of margins. They can borrow from the Fed now basically whatever they want...

 

Traderbeauty apperantly understands the rists.. plus has the account to be able to handle it - so she is doing it. But I don't think any newbie should be shorting even for the long term.

 

That is something that Traderbeauty maybe didn't mention to the newbies>> She is taking a super super small position -- on a really big account. :) So she is good. Any newbie should not be doing the same with probably any less than 50,000 account maybe.

 

Just my 2cents. Just wanted to warn the newbies.

 

Great thread.

 

I in particular don't like FIBS that much - because I thought they sucked when I first used them... but I may check them out again.

 

Cheers!

[Traderbeauty]

Vivaldi- very true- and that is why i warned everyone not to do that at home unles they can take the risk.

You dont really need a 50k account to do so, and if you only atrat shorting at the 1.272 2011 your risk up to 2044 is around 1500$ which is no big deal considering the reward.

If you really want to play it safe then short only at 2044 and your risk is very small.

Of course there is always the scenario that the market will continue straight up without retracing - oh well- i dont believe this will happen.

jane

[Traderbeauty]

looking at the last 2 days you can see how volume went up a bit but still market could not go up.

Friday is a doji at the top which is showing us that the market is very weak and this might be first signal for a reversal down.

On an upward market usually it takes few days and few trials for a reversal compared to the move up from the 50 fib.

I am just very surprise why would the market reverse here- i mean 112.8 is kind of a fib but very unpopular and i expected the market to go to at least the 1.272 if not the 1.618.

Oh well, not going to guess , market will do what it wants to do and all i can do is alert you to the signal.

Bottom line- doji on a stronger volume at the top means a reversal or at least reversal is coming up.

take care

Traderbeauty-Jane

 

http://i.imgur.com/wd54tIi.jpg

[Spectral_Analyst]

I agree to an extent to what lbf4223 & k33 pointed out. This win-win mentality with no risk aversion (No stop loss) can be very catastrophic on an instrument like ES, where the big sharks from all over the world come to feed. Such wishful thinking has never worked for me, infact it just added to the mess.

 

Presently, too many longs have entered the markets to take it to its all time highs. Now the concept of "everything that goes up must come down" doesn't really apply to futures market. Infinite supply meets finite demand, so the economic reality will never be the same as trading reality. It is highly possible that we continue to trade in 2000+ range for years to come. What it simply means is, the perception of value has just shifted higher. Just take a look where ES was a in 2010 and where it is now. Many lower levels were never retested.

 

I was much reluctant to be on this thread, just for the reason that Fibs is not really my game. Fibs & pivots sometimes overfits on the data, if you retrace every swing high to low, you can see all the future pullbacks or reversals lining up with some fib or pivot level. . But i just felt, a post to highlight the risks of such style of trading for newbies was inevitable which is why i decided to step in.

 

Your risk to reward on this short call is virtually infinite, although you are trying to manage it with the position size. This is like giving free money back to the markets. We all know, trading is one of the hardest way to earn money. Study shows, only 0.87% (Source: Brett's Blog) of futures traders make money consistently. So the odds of winning as a trader comes down to 1 in 1000. If you are 1 in that 1000, you surely wont bother giving away the profits back to the market in the expectation of asymmetric rewards. If not, this style of trading will soon kill your account in no time.

 

I dont mean to criticize your work, all this is just my opinion for the newbies, please continue providing us your valuable insights Jane.

 

Regards,

SA

Edited September 1, 2014 by Spectral_Analyst

[Traderbeauty]

SA

Please feel free to comment- i dont take it as criticism but as a constructive advice.

I keep warning everyone NOT to do that unless they have a nice size account and can risk part of it.

The reason i started this thread is to display in real time and also AHEAD of time how you can trade with virtually no indicators at all.

This same method is being used by me every single day in my day trading analysis-.

In my day trading i do use stops and they are very tight- 2-3 ticks no more- unless the market is very fast and volatile causing me to use 4-5 ticks stops- but that is very extreme.

WHAT I AM SHOWING HERE IS DAY TRADING IN SLOW MOTION. Watching the fib, legs and volume analysis is all you need during the day.

Again- I want this to be very very clear- I am not saying that the market will drop 1000 points or more and i do not really care.

All i am saying is that we will have A LEG down and that is how i am going to make my money.

The only reason why i do that is because the market is over extended and i dont think that i will have any problem to get this retracement.

I WOULD NOT DO THE SAME FOR A LONG- meaning going long without a stop.

So lets continue the game for you and live money for me.

take care

Traderbeauty-Jane

[Traderbeauty]

just one more thing-

the last time i did that ( look at my post before in another thread )- i dont remember the exact price i shorted but i think it was at 1974.5- i wrote that weeks BEFORE it got there.

I exited all at an average of about 1892.5 and this time i attached a copy of my broker account to show you all that this was real and not back testing or replay ( i never do that but felt it was needed for credibility);

So that gave me around 80 points by 5 contracts around $20,000.00 profit.

So being short now one contract with no stop is a joke for me.

jane

[Traderbeauty]

another kiss of death for the up direction move-

a high volume day ending with a doji at the top of the range- that means there were a lot of big money sellers and we all know what that means when that happens at the top.

cant wait to get me 2011.50 fill wow.

take care

jane

 

http://i.imgur.com/BCuHs1s.jpg

[izac]

Dear Jane,

 

Thank you for sharing your analysis. You are amazing ;)

 

Izac

[Traderbeauty]

once i saw yesterday's doji- i lowered my entry to 2011.

i got filled in the middle of the night- even though the high was only 2011.

The reason i got filled was because i had this order already many hours before so i was in the Q , otherwise i needed the market to go to 2011.25 to get filled.

 

NOW I KNOW THAT SOME WILL NOT BELIEVE ME SO I AM ATTACHING MY BROKER'S ACTIVITY REPORT FROM THIS MORNING.

will it continue to go down ? i dont know and i dont care- i got my exit at the 62 fib of this huge leg and not touching it .

jane

 

http://i.imgur.com/4bRbstx.png

Edited September 3, 2014 by Traderbeauty

[xioxxio]

Nice trade, well done!

[Traderbeauty]

Thank you XIOXXIO :)

[wcicom]

Hi TB,

 

I have been trading with nothing much but Fibs and Symmetry for many years.

My entries and exits are a bit different based on Fib ratios but close enough where

methodology can be considered the same. One thing in your post on the previous page

struck me as odd - using 2-3 tick stops during day trading ? I don't know how you get away

with such small stops, because even on days when we have small range on ES, intra-bar volatility

on 3 or 5 min chart is larger than 2-3 ticks anyway.

[Traderbeauty]

look at today price and volume action-

Volume was not huge but it was high and even higher compared to the last 12 trading days- that means that the big money started to get interested, there was professional activity and not just the 1 or 2 lots push.

Price is showing us that even though they tried to bring the market up they FAILED- and most of the volume was to the down side.

If you see this formation while day trading and yo are long- get out of your long and think about reversing.

Since that happened right at a fib number then i assume it will continue down but....------- when using daily bars only for confirmation- WE NEED TO SEE A DOWN RED BAR WITH HIGH VOLUME- that will be our final confirmation because so far all we have are weakness signals but no down move daily signal.

So lets wait for tomorrow and we will see if the up move continue or the reversal started.

In the meantime- i did not wait and actually lowered my entry by 2 ticks nd got filled right at 2011. AT THE TOP.

if we do get a reversal then my down target is 1936.50 which is again around 70 points on this contract.

Hope that helps

Traderbeauty-Jane

 

http://i.imgur.com/2pY9Jyx.jpg

[Spectral_Analyst]

On the VP, it formed a Volume compression bar with a few anomalies on both sides. A breakout off this range with a gap will show us the directional bias of the markets for the 2nd quarter of september. Edited September 4, 2014 by Spectral_Analyst

[Traderbeauty]

so 2 days later lets see what we have-

It seems like they wont let the market down,

lets look at the days one by one because this is EXACTLY what is happening during day trading and usually you do not need any indicators other than the volume analysis and price - both leading and not lagging.

So day number one- 4 bars ago was a DOJI HIGH VOLUME- at the highs- that is considered the best short signal possible.

Day 2- ( 3 days ago ) I waited for this level and shorted right at the top 2011 - this day ended as a doji with even higher volume , at the top and AT A FIB LEVEL. there is nothing better than that.

We do have to note two facts still that can bend my analysis-

First- WE DID NOT HIT THE FIB. i know that 2 ticks is nothing when we talk about such huge legs BUT- and remember this- in the ES fibs are accurate like a Swiss clock.Many many times i see a move from ALMOST a fib level- this moves usually fails, the market is reaching the exact fib level and the next move succeeds. So this is what we have here- the market did not reach the exact fib level.

Two- we need to remember that the ORIGINAL target for the longs from 1982.5 was the 1.618 which is 2044.5 and here i am trying to short it at the 1.272- so what we have here is just a small reaction off the 1.272 while the market is planning to continue up to the original target, who knows and who cares.

The third ( yes i have one more)- very very important-

in day trading if you plan to go AGAINST the market which is what i am doing right now- you need to be AT a perfect fib level AND you need some divergence that can be observed on that time frame.

When we have such a strong UP trend as we have now- the market DOES NOT rotate on a dime- it needs some divergence which is normally a small break ABOVE the previous high 9 few ticks to maybe few points) and then a reversal down- that is when all the breakout traders are getting caught in the move down and their stops are fueling that down move and accelerate it.

So far we did not have any divergence at all .

Lets go to day number 3 which is very important- it was a doji with even higher volume- what happened there was that they trid to take the market down - you can say its a high volume doji on the lows which is VERY BULLISH - please understand that all this huge volume went somewhere and at that day it belonged to the big money BUYERS so that signaled an up direction which happened next day-

Day 4- friday- an up move with very high volume meaning this up move is not bogus - the volume supports the move- meaning lets stay long or at least during day trading take longs till the market proves us wrong.

Regarding my long term short account i am still in - in the red but i dont care- for me its a long term game- please DO NOT COPY ME LIVE if you cannot afford to have the drawdown.

I actually added one more short so now i have 3 contracts in my live account which are short.

i am adding a screenshot that shows my live account so you can see that this is fully transparent and no bs.

Hope this will help you for your day trading.

Take care

Traderbeauty-Jane

 

http://i.imgur.com/HIGyIQ5.jpg

 

 

 

http://i.imgur.com/LpbFZjN.png

Edited September 7, 2014 by Traderbeauty

[lbf4223]

This has been pretty good at getting the extremes in the big picture:

 

http://money.cnn.com/data/fear-and-greed/

 

One last cycle up to 80-100 might do the trick.

[Traderbeauty]

Today was a great day.

You can see that the exceptional and very high volume caused the market to drop a lot - 28 points if i am not mistaken- THAT MEANS THAT MOST OF THE VOLUME WAS SELLERS. If we had such a huge volume but a doji day then it would have meant that a big part of the traders were buyers.

I am on vacation and not near my main computer - just using my laptop so once i turned it on sometimes and saw that we reached the 38 fib i decided to exit one of my shorts ( out of 3 ). Keep in mind that these are now december contracts ( i rolled over on friday the week before the end of the september contract).

I have 2 more orders to buy- one at the 50 fib and the last one is at the 61.8 fib ( see image ).

I also have 2 orders to sell short - one at the double top ( just in case if the market changes its mind and goes up ) and the other one still at eh 1.618 fib extension.

So far i have a very nice profit ( you can do the math yourself- i kept everything transparent and quoted my entries way ahead bEFORE the market reached them).

Again- this is LONG TERM TRADING might take awhile but i will end with around 6000$ ( need to make the exact numbers too tired lol ).

This is the same analysis you should use while day trading.

Hope this helps

Take care

Traderbeauty-Jane

 

http://i.imgur.com/wj18gYL.jpg

[Traderbeauty]

Yeehaa

Since I am on vacation in lake tahoe i did not monitor the market other than the early am and the evening.

So as I told you before- i had my exits at the 38 fib that got filled few days ago and if you read my previous post i had 2 more exits at the 50 fib and the 61.8 one.

NOW- very important- when you do daily - long term analysis you have to put your exit ONE POINT IN FRONT otherwise you might miss it- same with entry.

I had 2 limit orders as you can clearly see in the image- one to exit at 1949.50 which got filled and the last one at 1939.00

Guess what was today;'s low---------------------1938.75 lol so I got out by the tick.

I am flat now- did very well without any need to monitor or screen time.

Other than fibs i did not use ANY INDICATORS.

My drawdown was very minimal.

If the market continues down I DONT CARE.

And the most important thing- i forcasted all my levels , entries and exits WAY AHEAD of the market.

Hope you guys enjoyed the ride and hope you learned something because this is how i trade intraday- same method just much more accurate and of course - with stops.

Take care my friends.

Traderbeauty-Jane

 

p.s- i really hope that the market will shoot up from here so i can play the game again- love it.

 

http://i.imgur.com/YPl1ezQ.jpg

[tradernate]

Hi jane, you need to change your thread name to No B $ Fib trading...Great Job

[⭐ timein]

Yeehaa

Since I am on vacation in lake tahoe i did not monitor the market other than the early am and the evening.

So as I told you before- i had my exits at the 38 fib that got filled few days ago and if you read my previous post i had 2 more exits at the 50 fib and the 61.8 one.

NOW- very important- when you do daily - long term analysis you have to put your exit ONE POINT IN FRONT otherwise you might miss it- same with entry.

I had 2 limit orders as you can clearly see in the image- one to exit at 1949.50 which got filled and the last one at 1939.00

Guess what was today;'s low---------------------1938.75 lol so I got out by the tick.

I am flat now- did very well without any need to monitor or screen time.

Other than fibs i did not use ANY INDICATORS.

My drawdown was very minimal.

If the market continues down I DONT CARE.

And the most important thing- i forcasted all my levels , entries and exits WAY AHEAD of the market.

Hope you guys enjoyed the ride and hope you learned something because this is how i trade intraday- same method just much more accurate and of course - with stops.

Take care my friends.

Traderbeauty-Jane

 

p.s- i really hope that the market will shoot up from here so i can play the game again- love it.

 

http://i.imgur.com/YPl1ezQ.jpg

 

WaWoo-ooo Nice move !!!