Traderbeauty-Power of longer term price analysis and my broker's real money reports a

[Traderbeauty]

its very simple- if i took a long at 38 fib i expect an extension of 1.918

50 fib i expect 1.618

61.8 i expect 1.272

in all cases i expect at least 1.272

it works 90% of the time no need for complicated stop indicators etc, just follow the rules.

jane

[Traderbeauty]

just for your info-

just got filled at 1985.50 no stops- my target is many many points-

will keep you updated.

my next short is at 2011.50

keep in mind that this is in my long term position account that has nothing to do with my day trading account where i can go long or short many times per day.

jane

[hirobo]

Do you still looking for short time longs in such market when you expect turn but daily is still long?

[Traderbeauty]

in my day trading account- which is my main portfolio- i keep going long- there is a huge difference between a long term and day trading.

in the long term i leave it alone and not touching it, truth is that you can use the same methodology to trade intraday.

so - as long as the market is showing me higher highs and higher lows- ( can be seen clearly on the renko 4-1 ) i will continue to go long without guessing where it will reverse.

keep in mind that the theoretical target of this move is the big 1.618 which is 2044 and from there it should retrace down 50 fib and there is the big money.

keep in mind that i am not saying that the market is reversing down for 500 points or so- i am just using the big moves to make money.

jane

[Traderbeauty]

if there is interest i can post later some day trading entries from today using hardly any indicators - just fibs and renko- navi

[⭐ flipper26]

if there is interest i can post later some day trading entries from today using hardly any indicators - just fibs and renko- navi

 

Always interested in seeing your charts TB. Thanks.

[hirobo]

if there is interest i can post later some day trading entries from today using hardly any indicators - just fibs and renko- navi

 

Yes Yes and again Yes. I traded with simple PA before and now a was lost till i find you and returned to the core of trading pure PA. I am very enjoying your comments and charts. !!! Thank you

[busted]

Are you selling info on your methodology? ty

 

Market kept going up so i kept buying at every retracement- there was no indication of lower lows and lower highs so there was no sense to short.

I got out of only one long contract because there was nothing to indicate a reversal down.

The volume continues to be very low compared to the volume on the way down which indicates a fake move up.

The market did break the 61.8 fib level - i was watching like a hawk ready to bail, there were few attempts but nothing gave us an indication of lower lows lower highs- you can see that clearer on the renko spectrum 4-1.

Since the volume is so pathetic i plan to exit everything at the 78 fib because almost always there is a strong opposite move at the 78.

Look at the daily and see how it goes up on a very low volume- this is a divergence so i am very very careful- but again- i will not exit unless we have an indication.

As traders you have to FORCE YOURSELF to listen to the market and not to yourself.Its so hard for me to accept the move up because the move down was so strong and swift - but i am forcing myself to keep going long till the market will tell me otherwise.

 

I also want you to look at the next chart which is a renko 12-2 , you can see the fib levels much more accurate because the daily does not take into account the overnight levels so i am telling you now- at 1965 i am exiting all and again- that is because the move up has no fuel. look at today's move on the 12-3 see how the market goes up while the volume goes down- this is the best divergence you can see.

Hope this helps

Traderbeauty-Jane

 

http://i.imgur.com/2w3GVtM.jpg

 

http://i.imgur.com/cilNO2H.jpg

[Traderbeauty]

no need to buy anything

i am sharing it all- just read all my previous posts and chart samples.

on the other hand - i am not going to feed you with a silver spoon, you need to read it all very carefully , understand it and then use the grey stuff between your ears ( lol ) to utilize it in real time.

if you think that i win in every entry then you are wrong, i am making many mistakes but my stops are so small that they are nothing compared to my winners.

jane

[Tostao]

Jane I have to say thanks for the hard work and for taking the time to share your knowledge and constructive thinking.

 

Thanks again and look forward to enjoying your posts.

;)

[hirobo]

Hi Jane, can you please explain me how do you use navitrader indicators in intraday? What you are looking to see when the trend retraces? I have navitrader indis. in my chart, but as i see in educational video on youtube they can be used in many ways. Thank you and sorry if a i am too curious.

[Traderbeauty]

everything is still the same- market kept going up with volume going even lower-

THIS IS A FAKE - its purpose is to lure suckers to go long and then reverse.

I am not trying to guess when and where the market is going to reverse , i dont care- as long as we have higher highs and higher lows i go long at every retracement but i will also short only at a fib level because obviously the market is getting weaker.

take care

jane

 

http://i.imgur.com/oSgW9nN.jpg

[Traderbeauty]

i dont have time now- but look at the high volume going down compared to the very low one while the market was going up.

keep in mind that the market broke the previous high of 85.75 by only 6 points which is nothing- that was only to induce a "long expectations" and the idea that we broke previous high so lets get long now...

now you can see the smart money in action- 10-15 k volume hitting down.

take care

jane

[Vivaldi]

How long have you been using this "system"? I just can't really get behind using Fibonacci -- it doesn't really make much sense to me. :O But if it works... :) I don't know .. I may have to change my mind!

[Traderbeauty]

good question-

it took me years to go through all the hoops lies and magic potions till i understood that you need a different approach if you want to be included in the 3% winning percent of future trading.

I DO NOT TRADE FIB NUMBERS- this is a common mistake- i read the market using its legs, the fibs are just addresses or locations to know if an entry i want to take is going to win or not.

lets say that we have higher highs and higher lows so i know that i need to look for a long- I WILL ONLY TAKE A LONG AT A FIB LEVEL ; so you understand- my trading is not fib trading- fibs will just FILTER my planned entries.

i have been trading this method for the last 7 years.

Jane

[⭐ samsammy]

just for your info-

just got filled at 1985.50 no stops- my target is many many points-

will keep you updated.

my next short is at 2011.50

 

Hi jane, thanks for all your effort in posting..

just wondering where the 2011.50 for your next short came from?

couldn't find a fib that matched that price.

thanks

[wizard101]

No disrespect to hijacking Jane's thread, just a possible scneario of why the 2011 tg area imo is also good confluent area as I have 3 fibos coming into play there samsammy with also a possible retest of prior broken support line which lines up around that area..

And again thanking Jane for all her invaluable input !!http://charts.dacharts.net/2014-08-25/mw-es-daily1.png

[wizard101]

sorry about the right margin always seem to have the cut out lol.....http://charts.dacharts.net/2014-08-25/mw-es-daily2.png

 

cheers,

good trading to all !

[kubala]

do you use Volume Spread Analysis in your trading?

[Traderbeauty]

will answer all questions later today after the close so i can attach a daily chart with volume.

The 2011.5 is exactly the 1.272 fib extension of the last leg.

Wizard- thanks for your charts but did not really understand- we are in an uncharted area right now- these are new highs so there is no previous highs or lows in the current levels.

in the meantime- no sense to be cute or smart- no need to be a genius or try to guess the market- JUST DO WHAT THE MARKET IS TELLING YOU TO DO and so far its is saying GO LONG.

in order to reduce your risk you need to wait for a nice retracement BEFORE you go in, look fr previous supports and if the legs on the 2-1 renko are too small then just ignore them and do not go in.

jane

jane

[Traderbeauty]

So here is the answer how i derive these numbers.

You can see the daily chart ( actually its 1440 minutes- as per Admis advice - this way we see the daily with the overnight activity).

If you remember- and if not just look at previous posts- i got out of my shorts and reversed to longs at 1892.5 - because it was a perfect 50% fib retracement on a daily level.

I need to repeat here something which is very important and is worth way more than all these worthless indicators-

when i see a 50 fib retracement- most of the times - i would say 80-90% my target is AT LEAST 1.272 extension but MOST LIKELY 1.618.

I got out of my longs too early at 1960 - but you cant blame a girl for taking almost 70 points profit lol. ( btw- i was doing each one of the calls either in real time- check the time stamp - or attached a broker report) - the right thing to do in trading is to forecast AHEAD OF TIME and not after the fact.

So the theoretical target is the 1.618 which is 2044.50 but ... and here i make the mistake of being a judge and a prophet- i do not believe that the market will get there.

And that is how i play the countertrend game play.

I shorted 1 lot at the double top 1895.50 , will add at the 1.272 and another one at the 1.618- all these with no stops - so please do not try that at home. EVEN IF the market will get to 2046.25 IT WILL go down to 1968.25 ;. my average is going to be 2013.75 multiply that by 45.5 points that is a net profit of $6825- not bad for practically doing nothing. i have all my entries and exits and i will ignore any consolidation noise.

now- if you look at the volume you can see that the market is going up with very low volume which is bogus - i dont care because in my daytrding account i take a long every time we have a deep enough retracement.

now let me spell it- if the market stops here and goes down from 112.80 ( see image ) then i hold my shorts till we get to 88 fib.

if it goes down from the 1.272 then my target is 61.8 and if it goes to the 2044 - my target is 50 fib.

if the market goes nuts and goes to the 1.918 then i will add there and exit at the 38 fib STILL with nice profit.

 

As i said before- this is a REAL TIME AHEAD FORECASTING that i share with you- calling the numbers WAY AHEAD OF TIME not after-

The only way to know if these is any interest and i am not wasting my time is by watching your response of THANKS BUTTON. so if you want me to continue push this button so i know .

Take care

Traderbeauty-Jane

 

http://i.imgur.com/g2NsjES.jpg

[admis]

...

I shorted 1 lot at the double top 1895.50 , ...

 

A small adjustment - I think, it should be: 1885.50

Take care!

[Traderbeauty]

sorry- you are correct - was too tired ...

[lbf4223]

The only thing that worries me about this kind of play is that the only exit plan described is for the win. The assumption is that the account is far bigger than the leverage applied so it encourages heels to be dug in. The daytrading net gains end up feeding the longer term present loss. Mentally / emotionally, the available funds subject to allowable loss are probably the profits from the prior short and then the reversal.

 

I imagine if the Sept ES contract was used that, upon its expiration, you would cut any loss off by not rolling over. It's a hard pill to swallow. I hate seeing bad things happen to nice, smart people. Let's just hope I'm a worry wart and this market doesn't have a prayer of sustaining a move above 2050 for the rest of this year (before first heading back to the 1900's).

Edited August 26, 2014 by lbf4223

[k33]

I also would like to remark that we are still in a bull market and the banks grant themselves still free money. So shorts are still more dangerous at least to me, that could change suddenly, of course.